5/17/2010

Mainstreaming Climate
Change Adaptation in the
Philippine Forestry and
Natural Resources Sector
Diomedes A. Racelis
SEARCA Professorial Lecture
Drilon Hall, SEARCA
11 May 2010

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

• Introduction
•Current State of Natural
Resources in the Philippines
•Climate Change Projections in
the Philippines
•General Framework for
Mainstreaming Climate Change
Adaptation in the Natural
Resources Sector
•Adaptation Strategies in
Forestry and the Natural
Resources Sectors

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Why mainstream climate adaptation in the

country’s forestry and natural resources
sector?
• The Philippines is not a major emitter of GHGs but a
major “victim” of impacts of climate change
• The forestry and natural resources sector is one of
the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of
climate change
• The forestry and natural resources sector underpins
ecosystem stability, food security, and economic
development

Why mainstream climate adaptation in the country’s forestry and natural resources sector?

The Philippines is not a major emitter of GHGs

but major “victim” of impacts of climate change
•The country accounts for only 0.27% of total global GHGs
emissions
•The country is ranked highest in the world in terms of
vulnerability to tropical cyclone occurrence, and third in
terms of people exposed to such seasonal events.
•An average of 20 typhoons traverse the country yearly,
causing physical and economic devastation.
•Climate variability increasingly induces drought during El
Niño episodes and floods during La Niña.
•Consequently, the Philippines faces increasing disaster
risks with geologic/seismic dangers closely interacting
with such meteorological hazards.

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Storm tracks (1900-2009)

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El Nino Events,
1951-1998

PIC OF El Nino

The thirteen (13) El Niño

phenomena from 1950 to
1999

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Key Observed CC Impacts in RP

Average Yearly Damages from Typhoons

(1975-2009)
• Annual deaths of 593
• 4.5 B pesos damage to property ($83 M)
• 3 B pesos damage to agriculture($55 M)
• Strong typhoons + excessive rains =
landslides

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Key Observed CC Impacts in RP

Key Observed CC Impacts in RP

Damages due to El Niño

• Sharp decline in GVA in agriculture in 1982-
83 and 1997-98
• Forest fires in 1982, 1992, and 1998
• Water production was reduced by 10% at
Angat dam in 1997-98 El Niño
• Reduced hydropower generation in Lake
Lanao due to 1992 drought

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Key Observed CC Impacts in RP

•Decline in production of rice, corn, coconut

and sugarcane in 1983 and 1998
•Dry spell affected 20.6% of brackishwater
fishponds
•Milkfish and seaweed production dropped
by 10-80%
•Massive coral bleaching in 1998
•Fishkills and high mortality of cultured giant
clams in 1997-98 ENSO

DEFINITION OF TERMS
MAINSTREAMING
refers to the integration of policies and
measures that address climate change
into development planning and sectoral
decision-making

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DEFINITION OF TERMS
CLIMATE CHANGE
refers to a change in climate that can be identified by
changes in the mean and/or variability of its
properties and that persists for an extended period
typically decades or longer, whether due to natural
variability or as a result of human activity.

DEFINITION OF TERMS
ADAPTATION
refers to the adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities.

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DEFINITION OF TERMS
FORESTRY
is the science, art and practice of understanding,
managing and using wisely the natural resources
associated with, and derived from forest lands.

DEFINITION OF TERMS
NATURAL RESOURCES
• Forests
• Watersheds
• Biodiversity/Wildlife
• Protected Areas
• Wetlands and Freshwater Resources
• Coastal and Marine Resources
• Minerals

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What is a WATERSHED?
A topographically delineated area drained by
a river system with a single outlet.

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DEFINITION OF TERMS
VULNERABILITY
Degree to which a system is susceptible to, or
unable to cope with, adverse effects of
climate change, including climate variability
and extremes.
It is a function of the character, magnitude,
and rate of climate change and variation to
which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and
its adaptive capacity.

Objectives of the Presentation

General:
At the end of the presentation the audience is
expected to understand the importance of
mainstreaming climate change adaptation in
forestry and natural resources sector in
attaining sustainable development

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Objectives of the Presentation

Specific:
• Learn about the current practices and institutional
arrangements addressing climate change impacts in
forestry and natural resources sector.
• Appreciate the importance of climate change
adaptation strategies in forestry and natural resources
sector.
• Learn about strategies on how to enhance
mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in the
design and implementation of NRM policies, programs
and projects in the country.

LAND COVER AND CLASSIFICATION

Land Classification, Philippines, 2003
(in Million ha.)

14.1 M
15.9 M
(47.1%)
(52.9%)

Alienable and Disposable

Forestland/Timberland

Forest Cover (Total: 7.2 M ha)

5%
3%

36%
Closed Forests
Open Forests
Mangrove
Plantation

56%

SOURCE: NAMRIA, DENR

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WATERSHEDS

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State of Philippine Watersheds

• 24% of the watersheds have become unproductive
due to different levels of degradation.
• Most have been converted to grasslands and
shrublands, leaving very little forest cover.
• About 30% and 20% of the population in urban and
rural areas have no potable water, respectively.
• The supply of freshwater is decreasing due to over
extraction of groundwater, water pollution,
denuded forests/watersheds and lack of catchment
basin and, occasionally, the El Niño phenomenon

BIODIVERSITY

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BIODIVERSITY
52,000 species of flora and fauna

BIODIVERSITY
13,500 species of plants

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BIODIVERSITY
960 species of mammals

BIODIVERSITY
541 species of birds

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BIODIVERSITY
252 species of reptiles

PROTECTED AREAS

MT. APO

PROCLAIMED = 83
UNPROCLAIMED = 123

MT. PULAG

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FRESHWATER RESOURCES
• 384 major river systems
• 50 are considered biologically dead

FRESHWATER RESOURCES
• 60 lakes
• 100,000 hectares of freshwater swamps

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COASTAL and MARINE RESOURCES

• Coastline = 18,417 kilometers
• Mangrove
Primary = ~ 40,000 hectares
Second growth = ~ 100,000 hectares
• Coral reefs = 200,000 hectares (5% of
original)

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MINERAL RESOURCES
• Spread over 9 M hectares
• < 500,000 hectares under exploration
• Estimated value of $ 800 B – 1 T

Changes in Annual Mean Temperature

3.5
3.0
Temperature (°C)

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
NCR

ARMM
R01

R02
R03
R04

R05
R06
R07
R08
R09
R10
R11
R12
CAR

CARAGA

2020
REGION
2050

Projected Changes in Annual Mean Temperature for 2020 and 2050, relative to the
Baseline 1971-2000 by Region (PAGASA, 2010)

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Changes in Annual Mean Temperature

• The country’s average annual mean
temperature is projected to increase by 0.9°C
-1.2°C by 2020 and 1.7°C -3.0°C by 2050.
• Higher temperatures are generally expected
for all regions of the country by 2050, the
rates doubling compared to 2020 levels.
• Warming will be worst in Mindanao,
supposedly the country’s food basket. The
changes in mean annual temperature by
region relative to the baseline period of
1970-2000

Changes in Annual Mean Rainfall

45
35
25
Percent(%)

15
5
-5
-15
-25
-35
NCR

ARMM
R01

R02
R03
R04

R05
R06
R07
R08
R09
R10
R11
R12
CAR

CARAGA

2020
2050 REGION

Projected Changes in Annual Mean Rainfall for 2020 and 2050, relative to the Baseline
1971-2000 by Region (PAGASA, 2010)

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Changes in Annual Mean Rainfall

• The PRECIS simulation exercise projects a change in
annual precipitation from -0.5 to 17.4 % in 2020 and -
2.4 to 16.4 % in 2050.
• Increases in rainfall are particularly evident in most
areas of Luzon and Visayas, while Mindanao is
projected to undergo a drying trend.
• Average annual rainfall increase over most parts of
Luzon and the Visayas is expected to be 2 to 17 % by
2020 and 1 to 16 % by 2050.
• In contrast, there is a general reduction in regional
annual average rainfall in Mindanao (~ 0.5 to 11 % by
2020; 2 to 11% in 2050).

Sea Level Rise

45
35
25
Percent(%)

15
5
-5
-15
-25
-35
NCR

ARMM
R01

R02
R03
R04

R05
R06
R07
R08
R09
R10
R11
R12
CAR

CARAGA

2020
2050 REGION

Projected Changes in Annual Mean Rainfall for 2020 and 2050, relative to the Baseline
1971-2000 by Region (PAGASA, 2010)

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Sea Level Rise

• Sea level rise will increase the risk of flooding and
storm damage.
• Projected impacts of 1 meter sea level rise in many
areas of the country show vast portions being
inundated, affecting coastal settlements and
livelihood.
• According to estimates of the National Mapping and
Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), a one
meter sea level rise can translate to an estimated
land loss of 129,114 ha.
Projected Changes in Annual Mean Rainfall for 2020 and 2050, relative to the Baseline
1971-2000 by Region (PAGASA, 2010)

Type 1 - Two pronounced season; Dry

from Nov-Apr and wet the rest of the year
Type 2 - No dry season with maximum
Before rainfall from Nov-Jan
Type 3 - Season not so pronounced; Current
Relatively dry from Nov- April and wet the
rest of the year
Type 4 - Rainfall more or less distributed
throughout the year
Location of
Pattern of
climate Changes

Observed/Measured Changes in Climate Types Coverage in the Philippines: (Source, PAGASA, 2008)

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STAKEHOLDERS/ C NRM C NATURAL RESOURCES CLIMATE CHANGE

INSTITUTIONS L L
I I
Policies Forests Changes in
M
M Precipitation
DENR A
A T Pattern
T Programs E Watersheds
E
C Increased
Local Government R Projects H
Biodiversity Temperature
Units (LGUs) I A
IMPACTS
S N
K Activities G
E Protected Floods
A A
Areas Droughts
Non-Government
S D Pests
Organizations Planning
S A Diseases
(NGOs)
E P Minerals Fire
Mitigation
S T Landslides
Implementation A
S Erosion
T Species extinction
M Coastal
Publics/Local I
E Monitoring and
Resources/ Sea level rise
O
Communities N Evaluation Storm surges
N Mangroves
T

Reports/Accomplishments Vulnerability Projections

Climate Risk Information

General framework for mainstreaming climate change adaptation

in the natural resources sector

A. Adaptation Strategies in Forestry

1. Decreased Rainfall/Drought – Seedling Survival
• Use of drought-tolerant species in reforestation could
enhance survival rate of outplanted seedlings. Ideally,
indigenous species have better adaptive characteristics
under extreme environmental conditions.
• Proper species-site matching involves comparing the site
requirements of the species with the prevailing site
characteristics. A match will increase survival rate in
reforestation areas.
• Enhanced site maintenance (e.g. supplemental watering,
fertilization) would enhance the capacity of the species to
tolerate stressful site conditions brought about by extreme
climatic events like drought and excessive rainfall.

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A. Adaptation Strategies in Forestry

2. Decreased Rainfall/Drought -  Forest Fire
• Use of fire-tolerant species in reforestation could
enhance survival rate of outplanted seedlings. Ideally,
indigenous species have better adaptive characteristics
under extreme environmental conditions.
• Proper species-site matching involves comparing the site
requirements of the species with the prevailing site
characteristics. A match will increase survival rate in
reforestation areas.
• Enhanced site maintenance (e.g. supplemental watering,
fertilization) would enhance the capacity of the species
to tolerate stressful site conditions brought about by
extreme climatic events like drought and excessive
rainfall.

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A. Adaptation Strategies in Forestry

3. Decreased Rainfall/Drought -  Forest Fire
• Organize and train additional forest fire protection
teams to enhance fire fighting capability of fire brigades
during fire season.
• Set-up additional fire monitoring stations at strategic
location provides for efficient detection of fire risk and
outbreak in fire-prone areas during fire season.
• Implementation of fire risk rating system provides
essential guidelines for concerned parties on
appropriate actions to undertake under varying fire risk
conditions.

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A. Adaptation Strategies in Forestry

4. Decreased Rainfall/Drought -  Pests & Diseases
• Multi-species/multi-cropping system enhances the
capability of the site to arrest the spread of pests and
diseases by providing natural barriers afforded by
heterogeneous vegetation cover.
• Set-up pest and disease surveillance system that will
provide efficient detection system for outbreak and
monitoring of spread of pest and diseases. These will
include tree plantation owners, tree farmers, ERDS, and
other forest and environment-related research
institutions.

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A. Adaptation Strategies in Forestry

5. Decreased Rainfall/Drought -  Reduced forest
productivity
• Implement appropriate silvicultural treatments to
enhance growth and yield of standing forest crops. They
include cleaning, weeding, salvage cutting, sanitation
cutting and enhancement planting.
6. Decreased Rainfall/Drought -  Invasive Species
• Monitor and prevent establishment of bioinvasive
species thru regular reconnaissance surveys of
vulnerable sites like logged-over areas, second growth
forests and reforestation areas.

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A. Adaptation Strategies in Forestry

7. Changed Rainfall Pattern - disturbed phenology
• Conduct study on the effects of climate change on
phenology to understand the interaction of changing
climatic pattern and flowering and fruiting behaviour
of forest species.
• Update seed collection calendar involves monitoring
changes in seed production and maturation of forest
species as possibly affected by changes in rainfall and
temperature patterns in the locality.

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A. Adaptation Strategies in Forestry

8. Increased Temperature - seedling survival rate due to
heat stress
• Use of heat-tolerant species to increase survival of
seedlings planted in areas with projected elevated
temperature.
• Proper species-site matching aims to increase plant vigor
and increase the resilience of the species to high
temperature.
9. Increased Temperature - altered growing seasons and
boundary shifts between grasslands and forests
• Conduct long-term studies on forest ecosystem dynamics
vis-avis climate change to generate information on the
responses of the ecosystem to varying meteorological
conditions.

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B. Adaptation Strategies in Watersheds

1. Decreased Rainfall/Drought - reduced water yield
due to drying out of springs
• Regulation of water use thru efficient irrigation and
watering system.
• Water harvesting and establishment of small water
impoundment ponds to reduce dependence on
groundwater sources during the dry season.
• Use of shallow tube wells will provide easy to install and
affordable sources of irrigation water during the dry
season and prolong drought episodes.

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B. Adaptation Strategies in Watersheds

2. Increased Rainfall/Flooding- increased soil erosion and
landslides
• Redesign of vegetative and structural erosion control
measures in relation to projected increases in rainfall
intensity and duration.
• This is to increase their effectiveness in preventing/
minimizing erosion and reduce structural failure.
• Contour farming is designed to reduce and stabilize the
slope of cultivated areas to reduce the velocity of surface
runoff during extreme rainfall events.
• Mapping of erosion and landslide -prone areas focuses
attention to sites that need immediate rehabilitation and
implementation of disaster prevention measures.

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B. Adaptation Strategies in Watersheds

3. Increased Rainfall/Flooding- increased siltation and
sedimentation of streams
• Setting up of sediment traps seeks to contain eroded
materials in designated areas and prevent them from
reaching streams and other water bodies.
4. Increased Rainfall/Flooding- streambank erosion
• Tree/bamboo planting along riparian areas stabilizes soil
and prevents scouring of streambanks by rampaging flood
waters during rainy season.
5. Increased Rainfall/Flooding- reduced water quality due
to siltation
• Improved water filtration system will help ensure quality
of water supply in areas susceptible to flooding and water
supply contamination.

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C. Adaptation Strategies in Biodiversity/Protected Area

A. Decreased Rainfall/Drought - damage to wildlife habitats
due to fire and die off
• Fire protection reduces damage to habitat of endangered
species.
• Habitat rehabilitation and management to ensure that the
area is able to support native and resident species.
B. Changed Rainfall Pattern - altered growth cycle
• Habitat management improves site conditions that are
conducive to increased survival rate of endangered species.
C. Increased Temperature - proliferation of weed and
bioinvasive species
• Weed control reduces competition from undesirable species
and enhance the growth of protected species supply
contamination.

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D. Adaptation Strategies in Mining

1. Increased Rainfall/Flooding - increased soil erosion and
landslides
• Proper design of settling ponds to contain mine waste
water before releasing it to nearby streams.
• Redesign of vegetative and structural erosion control
measures in relation to projected increases in rainfall
intensity and duration. This is to increase their
effectiveness in preventing/minimizing erosion and reduce
structural failure.
• Contour farming is designed to reduce and stabilize the
slope of cultivated areas to reduce the velocity of surface
runoff during extreme rainfall events.
• Mapping of erosion and landslide -prone areas focuses
attention to sites that need immediate rehabilitation and
implementation of disaster prevention measures.

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D. Adaptation Strategies in Coastal Resources

1. Decreased Rainfall/Drought
• decreased flux of freshwater and sediment due to
drought in upstream areas resulting in increased
salinity and subsequent dieback of some mangrove
species
2. Increased Rainfall/Flooding/Sea Level Rise
• Inundation of coastal areas resulting in dieback of less
waterlog-tolerant species
• Increased coastal erosion
3. Increased Temperature
• coral bleaching

D. Adaptation Strategies in Coastal Resources

• Conduct studies on the effects of climate change on
coastal ecosystems including physiology of mangrove
species, salt tolerance of species, sea water intrusion,
coral bleaching, population studies and monitoring of
mangrove and marine flora and fauna.
• Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas to sea level
rise and storm surges to identify areas suitable for a
particular land use and facilitate planning strategies
to minimize impacts.
• Future viability of beach resorts and seafront tourism
facilities based on projected sea level rise vis-à-vis site
characteristics.

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CONCLUSION
• Climate change is upon us!
• Its impacts will continue to affect how we
live
• Its effects will permeate all aspects of our
society and the environment
• How we adapt could reduce or increase our
vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate
change

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Ignoring climate change will be the

most costly of all possible choices, for
us and our children
- Peter Ewins

There is still time to avoid the

worst impacts of climate change, if
we take strong action now
- Sir Nicholas Stern

THANK YOU VERY MUCH

FOR LISTENING!!!

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