Input Current Year NTPC Valuation based on discounted future cash flows of firm

General Parameters Input Data Forecasted Year Generated Data For Future Investments Calculations
Cost of per MW
capacity
Addition 5 Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Tax Rate 25 Capacity 31000 34100 37510 41261 45387.1 49925.81 54918.39 60410.23 64034.84 67876.9345404 71949.55061278 76266.52
Depriciation %
of fixed Assets 4 % Growth in Capacity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 6 6 6 6
Principal Repayme 6 Capacity Addition 3100 3410 3751 4126.1 4538.71 4992.581 5491.839 3624.614 3842.09063436 4072.616072422 4316.973

Working Capital Investment

% of Revenue 12 (10:25:30:25:10) 18865.98 20752.58 22827.836 23902.4148 23199.65247 21636.93 20289.08 18120.06 13487.2749629 7432.524332169 2158.487
Number of
Outstanding
Shares(In
crores) 824.5 Equity Proportion 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Debt Proportion 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Equity Financing 5659.794 6225.773 6848.3507 7170.72443 6959.895742 6491.079 6086.724 5436.018 4046.18248886 2229.757299651 647.546
Growth Parameters Debt Financing 13206.19 14526.8 15979.485 16731.6903 16239.75673 15145.85 14202.36 12684.04 9441.092474 5202.767032519 1510.941
EBITDA Growth
% per year 0.25 Utilization % 80 80.5 81 81.5 82 82.5 83 83.5 Valuation Output
Utlilization
Growth % per PV of future
year 0.5 Merchant power % 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 cash flows 38869.53705451
Merchant Power
% growth per PV of Terminal
year 1 Long Term PPA % 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 Value 153013.5601096
Growth after
terminal Merchant Rate per Enterprise
Year(2017) 6 unit 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 value(EV) 191883.0971641
Add Cash &
Other Operating Long Term PPA rate cash
Income Growth 0 per unit 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 equivalent 16053
Subtract
Capital Parameters EBITDA % 30 30.25 30.5 30.75 31 31.25 31.5 31.75 Current Debt 44148.64
Equity
Beta 0.7 Valuation 163787.4571641
Risk Free Units Produced(in Per Share
Rate(rf) 8 crores) 21724.8 22953.61 25405.8 28118.884 31120.5316 34441.32003 38115.06 42179.14 Valuation 198.6506454385
Market Price
Risk on Thursday
Premium(rm-rf) 8 Revenue 45187.584 48202.58 53860.29 60174.411 67220.3482 75082.07766 83853.13 93637.68 1st July 2010 199.15
Valuation
Cost of Debt 9 EBITDA in crores 13556.2752 14581.28 16427.39 18503.632 20838.308 23463.14927 26413.74 29729.96 Status OVERVALUED
Other Operating
Current Debt 44148.64 Income 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900
Depriciation &
Current Equity 64808.26 Amortisation 2894 3059.44 3691.702 4374.1367 5112.28462 5863.889828 6557.32 7160.505
Total Assets 108956.9 EBIT 12562.2752 13421.84 14635.69 16029.495 17626.0233 19499.25944 21756.42 24469.46
Debt/
(Equity+Debt) 0.4051936133 Interest 2078 4923.532 5935.532 7017.5539 8102.35282 9077.789753 9896.249 10580.69
Equity/
(Debt+Equity) 0.5948063867 Tax 2621.0688 2124.577 2175.038 2252.9852 2380.91763 2605.367422 2965.042 3472.193

NOPAT(Net Operating
WACC 10.824423749 Profit after tax) 9941.2064 11297.26 12460.65 13776.51 15245.1057 16893.89202 18791.37 20997.27

Add Back Depriciation

& Amortization 2894 3059.44 3691.702 4374.1367 5112.28462 5863.889828 6557.32 7160.505
Subtract Principal
Repayment of long
Investment Plan Parameters term Debt 2648.918 3282.354 3957.0215 4678.36928 5401.568544 6051.86 6597.499
Subtract Capital
Expenditure for new
1st yr 0.1 capacity Addition 5659.794 6225.773 6848.3507 7170.72443 6959.895742 6491.079 6086.724
Net Working Capital
2nd yr 0.25 Change 361.7994 678.925 757.69493 845.512412 943.4075298 1052.527 1174.146
3rd yr 0.3
4thyr 0.25 Free Cash Flow 5686.191 5965.296 6587.5792 7662.7842 9452.910031 11753.23 14299.4
PV of future Cash
Flows discounted at
5th yr 0.1 WACC 5130.811 4856.921 4839.7107 5079.77724 5654.420672 6343.725 6964.172
Terminal Value 314179.8

Other Financial Details

Uses of Funds :
Fixed Assets 76486 92292.54 109353.4 127807.12 146597.246 163933.0083 179012.6 192141.2
Long Term
Investments 11777 11777 11777 11777 11777 11777 11777 11777
Current Assets 20693.9 21055.7 21734.62 22492.319 23337.8317 24281.23924 25333.77 26507.91
Sources of Funds :
Long term Debt 44148.64 54705.91 65950.36 77972.821 90026.1424 100864.3306 109958.3 117563.2
Equity 64808.26 70419.33 76914.68 84103.614 91685.935 99126.91699 106165.1 112862.9
 Input Current Year Day care valuation
General Parameters Input Data Forecasted Year Generated Data
Cost per child
capacity
Addition in
thousand 15 Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Capacity (No. of
Tax Rate 30 children) 0 200 400 800 1600 2400 3600 5400
Depriciation %
of fixed Assets 20 % Growth in Capacity 0 100 100 100 50 50 50

Working Capital Capacity Addition(No

% of Revenue 12 of child per year) 200 200 400 800 800 1200 1800
Investment (In
Interest 10 thousands) 3000 3000 6000 12000 12000 18000 27000
Growth Parameters Equity Proportion (%) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
EBITDA Growth
% per year 0.5 Debt Proportion (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Growth after
terminal
Year(2017) 6 Equity Financing 2400 2400 4800 9600 9600 14400 21600
Debt Financing 600 600 1200 2400 2400 3600 5400
Capital Parameters Cummulative Debt 600 1200 2400 4800 7200 10800 16200
Revenue per child (In
Beta 1.5 thousands) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Risk Free
Rate(rf) 8 EBITDA % 26 26.5 27 27.5 28 28.5 29 29.5
Risk
Premium(rm-rf) 8
Cost of Debt 10
Debt/ Revenue (In
(Equity+Debt) 0.2 thousands) 0 6000 18000 36000 72000 120000 180000 270000
Equity/ EBITDA ( In
(Debt+Equity) 0.8 thousands) 0 1590 4860 9900 20160 34200 52200 79650
WACC 17.4
Depriciation &
Amortisation 0 600 1200 2400 4800 7200 10800 16200
EBIT 0 990 3660 7500 15360 27000 41400 63450
Interest 0 60 120 240 480 720 1080 1620
Tax 0 279 1062 2178 4464 7884 12096 18549

NOPAT(Net Operating
Profit after tax) 0 711 2598 5322 10896 19116 29304 44901

Add Back Depriciation

& Amortization 0 600 1200 2400 4800 7200 10800 16200

Subtract Capital
Expenditure for new
capacity Addition 2400 2400 4800 9600 9600 14400 21600
Net Working Capital
Change 720 1440 2160 4320 5760 7200 10800

Free Cash Flow -1809 -42 762 1776 10956 18504 28701
PV of future Cash
Flows discounted at
WACC -1540.886 -30.47285 470.92384 934.911655 4912.601529 7067.357 9337.279
Terminal Value 266868.9

Final Valuation (In

thousands) 288020.6621