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Espresso Needed
While we maintain our $13 target and Buy rating on shares of Power-One (PWER),
Wednesday’s negative pre-announcement reminds us of PWER’s Italian exposure
and the current work stoppage in Italy that is likely to persist through the end of
Power-One, Inc. (PWER: $8.29) April. This does not affect our longer term view, but we lower 2011 sales and EPS
Buy estimates in-line with pre-announced 1Q11 sales and into the remainder of 2011.
Price Target: $13.00 Our target is 8x our unchanged 2012 EPS estimate of $1.68.
Thursday, April 07, 2011
MARKET AND BALANCE SHEET DATA • Work stoppage leads to lost 1H11 sales, slower 2011 momentum. We
Market Cap: $1,253 estimate this shortfall is the result of 175MW lost shipments as a result of
52-week High: $13.04 the Italian work stoppage. We remove ~$30mln from our 1Q11 and
52-week Low: $3.02
Shares Outstanding: 159.293 ~$15mln from 2Q11 sales estimates. We model PWER Italian market
Avg. Daily Vol.: 4.1 share at ~50%, total 2011 industry shipments into Italy at 3GW, and 40%
Debt/Equity: 12.7% of total shipments in 1H11.
Book Value/sh: $1.77
Tangible Book Value/sh: $1.65 • CSI data encouraging... We are encouraged by recent CSI data showing
Cash/share: $1.43 increasing applications using PWER inverters, suggesting it is gaining
Net cash/share: $1.20 traction in the North America market. Since the end of 2010 when PWER
was not present in the CSI database, PWER applications have quickly
FINANCIAL AND EARNINGS DATA increased to a level suggesting it will challenge the top three later in 2011
– not bad from a standing stop four months ago.
FYE Dec 2010A 2011E 2012E
P/E Ratio: 7.7 7.5 4.9 • …but disty info not so much. We were surprised by PWER’s absence at
EV/EBITDA: 3.7 3.9 2.7 PV America earlier this week, the first major show in North America since
EBITDA: $302 $290 $415 PWER’s new factory in Arizona opened. While at the show we also noted
Operating Margin: 27.4% 22.4% 23.8%
FCF Yield: 6.1% 13.2% 13.3% PWER’s absence on the new solar line card at Allied Building (private),
ROE: 59.4% 36.5% 35.5% one of the nation’s largest building materials distributors, while all of its
ROIC: 55.9% 35.8% 35.2% major competitors were present. We recognize that these data points are
Sales: Q1 $152A $243E $334E not definitive and give no indication one way or the other for real
Q2 $215A $300E $376E penetration in North America, but we were clearly looking for more
Q3 $314A $320E $444E positive direction.
Q4 $366A $346E $472E
FY $1,047A $1,210E $1,626E • 1Q11 Negative Pre-announcement. Wednesday after the close, PWER
lowered 1Q11 sales guidance to $240mln-$245mln from $260mln-
EPS: Q1 $0.04A $0.19E $0.30E $290mln. Further details are delayed until the 1Q11 conference call on
Q2 $0.17A $0.25E $0.37E
Q3 $0.40A $0.31E $0.48E May 5.
Q4 $0.49A $0.35E $0.52E • Valuation. Our $13 target is 8x our 2012 EPS estimate of $1.68.
FY $1.08A $1.10E $1.68E
20,000
9
8
Q4E $345.5 $390.4 $0.35 $0.40
15,000 7 2011E $1,209.6 $1,336.4 $1.10 $1.30
10,000 6
2012E $1,626.0 $1,626.0 $1.68 $1.68
5,000 5
0
4 Source: Auriga USA
Apr Jun Aug Nov Jan Apr
Source: FactSet Prices
Figure 2: Auriga vs Consensus
Mark W. Bachman Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E 2011E 2012E
mark.bachman@aurigausallc.com Revenue $243.2 $300.4 $320.4 $345.5 $1,209.6 $1,626.0
+1 212-231-2260 Auriga
EPS $0.19 $0.25 $0.31 $0.35 $1.10 $1.68
Revenue $311.7 $329.4 $331.2 $337.7 $1,310.4 $1,483.4
Robert Spandau Consensus
robert.spandau@aurigausallc.com EPS $0.32 $0.33 $0.32 $0.31 $1.27 $1.49
+1 212-231-2229 Source: FactSet, Auriga USA
COGS $106.6 $135.1 $184.9 $217.3 644.0 $161.0 $200.8 $206.7 $221.7 790.3 $220.8 $244.0 $280.3 $297.6 1,042.6
Gross profit 45.7 79.4 129.1 148.9 403.1 82.2 99.5 113.7 123.8 419.3 113.4 131.6 164.1 174.3 583.4
Gross margin 30.01% 37.01% 41.11% 40.66% 38.50% 33.79% 33.14% 35.49% 35.83% 34.66% 33.93% 35.04% 36.93% 36.94% 35.88%
Incremental gross margin, seq 46.57% 54.17% 49.95% 37.93% 54.25% 30.37% 70.66% 40.20% 91.68% 44.00% 47.26% 37.08%
Incremental gross margin, yoy 58.42% 49.66% 49.51% 48.17% 49.84% 40.13% 23.47% -240.27% 121.49% 9.95% 34.29% 42.61% 40.65% 39.96% 39.41%
Research & development 8.4 8.6 9.0 10.5 36.4 8.5 9.3 9.0 9.7 36.5 9.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 43.0
% sales 5.50% 3.99% 2.85% 2.87% 3.48% 3.50% 3.10% 2.80% 2.80% 3.02% 2.90% 2.90% 2.50% 2.40% 2.65%
SG&A 15.0 18.2 19.3 22.2 74.6 25.4 28.0 28.5 29.3 111.2 33.5 35.6 40.7 41.4 151.2
% sales 9.83% 8.49% 6.14% 6.05% 7.13% 10.43% 9.33% 8.88% 8.48% 9.19% 10.03% 9.47% 9.15% 8.78% 9.30%
Amortization, Other 1.3 3.3 0.4 0.4 5.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.6
% sales 0.86% 1.53% 0.11% 0.12% 0.51% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
Operating profit (EBIT) 21.1 49.3 100.5 115.8 286.7 48.1 61.9 76.0 84.5 270.4 69.8 84.7 111.9 121.1 387.5
Operating margin 13.83% 22.99% 32.00% 31.62% 27.38% 19.76% 20.61% 23.71% 24.45% 22.36% 20.89% 22.57% 25.18% 25.65% 23.83%
Interest income/(expense), net (2.0) (2.0) (1.2) (1.1) (6.3) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (4.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (4.0)
Other income/(expense), net (4.9) 0.7 (3.0) (0.9) (8.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (8.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (8.0)
Pretax income (EBT) 14.2 48.1 96.4 113.8 272.4 45.1 58.9 73.0 81.5 258.4 66.8 81.7 108.9 118.1 375.5
Taxes/(benefit) 9.7 23.3 33.1 37.6 103.6 15.3 20.0 24.8 27.7 87.9 20.0 24.5 32.7 35.4 112.7
Effective rate 68.34% 48.39% 34.33% 33.03% 38.04% 34.00% 34.00% 34.00% 34.00% 34.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00%
JV, Preferred Dividend (0.7) (0.5) (0.4) 0.3 (1.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (1.7) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (1.7)
Net income $3.8 $24.3 $62.9 $76.5 $167.4 $29.3 $38.5 $47.7 $53.4 $168.9 $46.3 $56.8 $75.8 $82.2 $261.2
Net income margin 2.46% 11.33% 20.02% 20.89% 15.99% 12.06% 12.81% 14.90% 15.44% 13.96% 13.87% 15.13% 17.06% 17.42% 16.06%
Incremental net margin, seq -16.77% 33.06% 38.75% 26.17% 38.38% 15.99% 46.21% 22.43% 61.55% 25.25% 27.60% 23.34%
Incremental net margin, yoy 119.05% 25.24% 30.73% 31.77% 37.83% 28.15% 16.50% -236.21% 112.13% 0.91% 18.73% 24.40% 22.65% 22.84% 22.16%
EPS $0.04 $0.17 $0.40 $0.49 $1.08 $0.19 $0.25 $0.31 $0.35 $1.10 $0.30 $0.37 $0.48 $0.52 $1.68
growth, seq 27.64% 335.36% 133.25% 23.33% 60.68% 30.72% 23.01% 11.27% 13.07% 21.71% 32.37% 8.10%
growth, yoy 105.64% 320.13% 1321.17% 806.31% 273.96% 392.46% 47.87% 22.02% 29.65% 2.22% 55.54% 44.82% 55.83% 51.39% 51.93%
Consensus $0.10 $0.17 $0.40 $0.32 $0.33 $0.32 $0.31 $1.27 $0.31 $0.35 $0.41 $0.42 $1.49
Share count (fully diluted) 140.0 159.8 161.7 159.3 155.2 159.5 159.7 159.9 160.1 159.8 160.3 160.5 160.7 160.9 160.6
Share count (reported) 95.6 142.3 144.2 141.8 131.0 142.0 142.2 142.4 142.6 142.3 142.8 143.0 143.2 143.4 143.1
Depreciation/amortization 5.0 3.8 3.0 3.6 15.4 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 19.4 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6 27.4
EBITDA $26.0 $53.2 $103.5 $119.4 $302.1 $52.2 $66.5 $81.1 $90.1 $289.8 $75.9 $91.3 $119.0 $128.7 $414.9
EBITDA margin 17.09% 24.78% 32.97% 32.61% 28.85% 21.45% 22.14% 25.30% 26.07% 23.96% 22.72% 24.32% 26.78% 27.27% 25.52%
Source: Auriga USA
2 AURIGA USA, LLC● One Pennsylvania Plaza ● Suite 4625 ● New York, NY 10119
PWER – Espresso Needed – April 7, 2011
PPE 47.3 47.3 56.5 63.3 71.3 78.8 85.8 92.2 101.2 109.7 117.7 125.1
Deposits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Goodwill and intangibles 17.9 17.1 17.1 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8
Advances to suppliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other long term assets 8.1 8.3 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3
Total Assets $385.9 $464.7 $629.2 $761.8 $738.8 $724.1 $780.5 $851.4 $899.6 $982.0 $1,096.3 $1,198.2
Liabilities
Accounts payable $101.4 $146.5 $187.6 $213.1 $157.9 $197.0 $202.7 $217.4 $216.5 $239.3 $274.9 $291.8
Advances from customers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current portion of debt 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Accrued and other current liabilities 49.5 61.4 108.3 171.6 171.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6
Current liabilities 152.2 209.1 297.2 384.8 329.7 273.7 279.5 294.2 293.2 316.0 351.6 368.5
Long term debt 73.2 72.6 38.4 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9
Advances from customers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other liabilities 38.5 41.3 55.8 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0
Total Liabilities 263.8 323.0 391.4 479.8 424.6 368.6 374.4 389.1 388.2 410.9 446.6 463.5
Shareholders' equity 122.0 141.7 237.8 282.0 314.2 355.5 406.0 462.2 511.4 571.0 649.7 734.7
Total Liabilities and Stockholders Equity $385.9 $464.7 $629.2 $761.8 $738.8 $724.1 $780.5 $851.4 $899.6 $982.0 $1,096.3 $1,198.2
Working Capital $160.4 $183.0 $251.4 $287.6 $311.7 $345.6 $389.1 $438.9 $479.1 $530.2 $600.9 $678.4
Changes in Working Capital $0.3 $22.6 $68.5 $36.1 $24.2 $33.8 $43.6 $49.7 $40.2 $51.2 $70.7 $77.6
Capital Expenditures $4.2 $4.1 $7.9 $7.9 $12.0 $12.0 $12.0 $12.0 $15.0 $15.0 $15.0 $15.0
Net Cash $26.7 $71.4 $154.9 $191.9 $298.4 $202.8 $232.0 $265.9 $314.9 $339.5 $365.4 $425.9
Turnover-Control Ratios
Cash conversion cycle 51.7 23.0 29.3 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9
Days sales outstanding 72.3 57.0 59.8 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.4
Days payables outstanding 86.7 98.9 92.5 89.5 89.5 89.5 89.5 89.5 89.5 89.5 89.5 89.5
Days of inventory 66.2 65.0 62.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0
Inventory turns 5.5x 5.6x 5.9x 5.7x 5.7x 5.7x 5.7x 5.7x 5.7x 5.7x 5.7x 5.7x
Profitability Ratios
Asset turnover 1.6x 1.8x 2.0x 1.9x 1.3x 1.7x 1.6x 1.6x 1.5x 1.5x 1.6x 1.6x
x NIM 2% 11% 20% 21% 12% 13% 15% 15% 14% 15% 17% 17%
= ROA 4% 21% 40% 40% 16% 21% 24% 25% 21% 23% 28% 27%
x Financial leverage 3.16 3.28 2.65 2.70 2.35 2.04 1.92 1.84 1.76 1.72 1.69 1.63
= ROE 12% 69% 106% 109% 37% 43% 47% 46% 36% 40% 47% 45%
ROIA 5% 30% 58% 57% 29% 32% 37% 39% 34% 37% 44% 45%
RONA (ROIC) 14% 47% 95% 98% 36% 42% 45% 45% 36% 39% 46% 44%
Valuation Ratios
Book value per share $0.87 $0.89 $1.47 $1.77 $1.97 $2.23 $2.54 $2.89 $3.19 $3.56 $4.04 $4.57
Tangible book value per share $0.74 $0.78 $1.37 $1.65 $1.85 $2.11 $2.42 $2.77 $3.07 $3.44 $3.93 $4.45
Cash per share $0.72 $0.91 $1.20 $1.43 $2.10 $1.50 $1.68 $1.89 $2.19 $2.34 $2.50 $2.87
Debt per share $0.53 $0.46 $0.25 $0.23 $0.23 $0.23 $0.23 $0.22 $0.22 $0.22 $0.22 $0.22
Revenue per share $1.09 $1.34 $1.94 $2.30 $1.53 $1.88 $2.00 $2.16 $2.08 $2.34 $2.77 $2.93
Gross margin per share $0.33 $0.50 $0.80 $0.93 $0.52 $0.62 $0.71 $0.77 $0.71 $0.82 $1.02 $1.08
3 AURIGA USA, LLC● One Pennsylvania Plaza ● Suite 4625 ● New York, NY 10119
PWER – Espresso Needed – April 7, 2011
4 AURIGA USA, LLC● One Pennsylvania Plaza ● Suite 4625 ● New York, NY 10119
PWER – Espresso Needed – April 7, 2011
Company Description
Power-One, Inc. (Power-One) designs and manufactures solar power inverters, power conversion and power management
solutions for renewable energy, enterprise networking and industrial markets. Its Renewable Energy business unit (BU) products
include DC/AC inverters serving the residential, commercial and utility segments, while its Power BU products include AC/DC
and DC/DC products. It has a sales and manufacturing presence in the US, Asia and Europe.
Power-One, Inc.
Valuation
Our $13 price target is based on 8x our 2012 EPS estimate of $1.68. This multiple is in-line with its solar peers and compares to a
3yr median of 15x.
Our $13 target is 1.3x our 2012 sales estimate and compares to a 3yr median of 0.5x.
Our $13 target is 2.7x our 2012 book value estimate and compares to a 3yr median of 2.3x.
Fluctuations in the Euro exchange rate create volatility with respect to the individual business models. While most firms have
active hedging strategies, substantial movements could affect revenues and earnings adversely. 66% of our 2010 worldwide
demand model is derived from countries that use the Euro as currency.
Execution risk related to capacity expansion plans and an expansion of sales into North America. Risks including obtaining
sufficient financing through capital markets, construction delays, timely deliveries of equipment, and integration with current
operations.
5 AURIGA USA, LLC● One Pennsylvania Plaza ● Suite 4625 ● New York, NY 10119
PWER – Espresso Needed – April 7, 2011
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered by AURIGA USA, LLC:
Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Not Covered by AURIGA USA, LLC:
Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions for Explanation)
Auriga USA, LLC disclosure price charts are updated within the first fifteen days of each new calendar quarter per FINRA
regulations. Price charts for companies initiated upon in the current quarter, and rating and target price changes occurring in the
current quarter, will not be displayed until the following quarter. Additional information on recommended securities is available
on request.
Rating Distributions
Auriga USA, LLC rating distribution by percentage (as of December 31, 2010):
All companies under coverage: All companies under coverage to which it has provided
investment banking services in the previous 12 months:
Explanation of Ratings
Buy: Expected to produce a total return of 15% or better in the next 12 months.
Hold: Fairly valued; total return in the next 12 months expected to be ± 15%.
Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 15% or more in the next 12 months.
6 AURIGA USA, LLC● One Pennsylvania Plaza ● Suite 4625 ● New York, NY 10119
PWER – Espresso Needed – April 7, 2011
4. Auriga USA, LLC or an affiliate of Auriga USA, LLC has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the
subject company in the last 12 months.
5. Auriga USA, LLC or an affiliate of Auriga USA, LLC has received compensation for investment banking services from the
subject company in the last 12 months.
6. Auriga USA, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject
company in the next three months.
7. Auriga USA, LLC or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of the common stock of the subject company as calculated
in accordance with Section 13(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
8. The subject company is, or during the past 12 months was, a client of Auriga USA, LLC, which provided non-investment
banking, securities-related services to, and received compensation from, the subject company for such services. The analyst
or employees of Auriga USA, LLC with the ability to influence the substance of this report knows the foregoing facts.
9. An affiliate of Auriga USA, LLC received compensation from the subject company for products or services other than
investment banking services during the past 12 months. The analyst or employees of Auriga USA, LLC with the ability to
influence the substance of this report know or have reason to know the foregoing facts.
Analyst Certification
I, Mark W. Bachman, was principally responsible for the preparation of this research report, and I hereby certify that the
recommendations and opinions expressed in this publication accurately reflect my personal views about the company and
securities that are mentioned in this report and that I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in
exchange for the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Disclaimers
This report has been prepared by AURIGA USA, LLC in New York. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole
or in part for any purpose.
This report is published for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities,
products or services or participate in any trading strategy referred to herein. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making any investment decisions. This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. The information
and opinions provided in this report take no account of the individual client risk and return requirements. The securities discussed
in this report may not be suitable for all investors. AURIGA USA, LLC accepts no liability for any direct or consequential loss or
damage arising from the use of all or part of this publication. The information in this report has been obtained from sources that
AURIGA USA, LLC believes to be reliable and accurate. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as
to the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from third parties. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. The information or
opinions are provided as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
AURIGA USA, LLC is fully disclosed with its clearing firm, Pershing LLC, is not a market maker and does not sell to or buy
from customers on a principle basis.
We, our affiliates, any officer, director or stockholder or any other member of their family may from time to time purchase or sell
any of the above mentioned or related securities. Analyst or members of the Research Department are prohibited from buying or
selling securities issued by the companies that AURIGA USA, LLC has a research relationship with, except if ownership of such
securities was prior to the start of such relationship, then the analyst or member of the research Department may sell such
securities after obtaining express written permission from the Director of Research.
7 AURIGA USA, LLC● One Pennsylvania Plaza ● Suite 4625 ● New York, NY 10119