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By Ilana Freedman Sun 04/10/2011

The tides of change are sweeping through the Arab world, and not, it seems for the
better. To be sure, the tyranny of autocrats who have ruled the region for decades
is systematically being overthrown. But what is replacing them may be far worse ±
first chaos, in which the levels of death and suffering will be staggering, followed by
a new kind of tyranny ± Islamism under Shari¶ah law ± throughout the region.

The tyrants of the second half of the twentieth century kept the region relatively
stable, while Western support of µdemocratic¶ revolution is now creating chaos
throughout the Arab and Muslim world. Whether this is due to a lack of vision and
understanding, or matter of policy, it stands to unhinge the delicate balances of
power that have kept the nations of the world in a fragile, if incomplete, peace for
the last sixty years. Local wars have been contained, and international commerce
has been able to flourish. But today¶s Western interference in local rebellions has
generated a global fever for revolution and instability around the world that may
ultimately be impossible to contain.

The interesting thing about many of these revolutions is that they were started by
people in search of nothing more than better economic conditions. In Ô , for
example, the revolution was planned and initiated by young, predominantly secular
students and professionals seeking a more democratic society in which there would
be jobs and opportunity. But their movement was quickly hijacked by the Muslim
Brotherhood, a very well-organized and well-disciplined organization based on
Islamist ideology.

The Muslim Brotherhood, formerly outlawed in Egypt, has now regrouped and is
seeking the reins of power in the unrest that provides a long-awaited opportunity.
The original demonstrations for jobs and better economic conditions quickly
morphed into massive demonstrations that led to the fall of the Mubarak regime.
But even after Mubarak¶s departure, the demonstrations continued and have now
turned into a virulent anti-Israel, anti-Semitic, anti-Christian movement that
threatens to turn µdemocratic¶ Egypt into a radical Islamist state. Mohamed
Ghanem, a senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to Iranian television
that the Egyptian army, temporary custodians of the Egyptian government, should
be preparing for a new war with Israel. If the Muslim Brotherhood wins a majority
in the upcoming Egyptian elections, as now seems likely, the peace treaty between

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Egypt and Israel will be a thing of the past, and the region will most likely dissolve
into bitter bloodshed again.

In‘ , the revolution was a rag-tag operation from the beginning. The first
peaceful demonstrations were quickly disrupted by Gaddafi¶s imported mercenaries,
whose sniper fire and heavy guns brought mayhem on the streets within hours, and
Western interference within weeks. The ensuing chaos enabled al Qaeda and
Hezbollah forces to quickly infiltrate the ranks of the rebels, including men who had
previously fought against ³foreign invaders´ (i.e. American troops) in Afghanistan
and Iraq. These are the same µpro-democracy rebels¶ (as the mainstream media
likes to call them) who are now supported by the US against Gaddafi. The Western
involvement took the form of a NATO-imposed no-fly zone which immediately
deteriorated into a massive bombing of Gaddafi assets throughout the country, and
material support for the rebels. The US is now pouring money into this and other
revolutions, according to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (see article here), who,
clearly supports the so-called 'pro-democracy' movements now also festering in
Yemen, Syria, Egypt, and throughout the Middle East. 

The sandbox of the Libyan rebellion is very crowded. Al Qaeda in the Maghreb is
now active in Libya, as is Iranian client, Hezbollah. Also fighting in this strange
band of brothers are jihadists, adrenalin junkies, ex-prisoners, and former Gaddafi
soldiers, all of whom make up a largely disorganized, undisciplined army of men
with guns and no game plan. In a recent report from the field, Geraldo Rivera said,
³"Libyan rebels have the fire discipline of an LA street gang!" (read the whole article
here and watch it here). 

Hezbollah is playing a unique role. They were reportedly sent into Libya by Iran,
seeking access to Gaddafi¶s vast store of WMD, including many tons of mustard and
nerve gas. They appeared in Benghazi with several million dollars in cold cash, and
purchased from rebel leaders ³at least 2,000 artillery shells carrying mustard gas
and 1,200 nerve gas shells´ bound for Gaza and Lebanon (read the original article
here). 

According to Al Jazeera, ³Israeli officials have expressed concern about suspected
arms smuggling through the country´. According to Debka, they have good reason
to be concerned. Debka reported that the shipment passed overland through
northern Sudan, a Muslim stronghold through which Hezbollah can be assured safe
passage. An ³unidentified drone´ bombed a car associated with the transfer,
Tuesday‘night near the Sudanese town of Port Sudan, killing two people. The
Sudanese immediately accused Israel of carrying out the attack from ³a plane that

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flew in from the Red Sea´ (although one policeofficial said the missile had been
fired from the sea). The two men killed in the vehicle were identified as being
associated with al Qaeda and involved with the Iranian-Hamas arms smuggling
network in Sudan. 

The shipment of millions of dollars of poison gas to Hamas and Hezbollah is a
serious escalation in the burgeoning conflict. According to Debka, ³the first
consignments of shells and poison gas were ferried to the Iranian intelligence bases
in Iran, which oversee the arms smuggling routes to the Gaza Strip and Lebanon,
by a gang of Sudanese weapons smugglers´. 
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If you have been following our
irregularly posted newsletters, you may
remember that we have continually
warned of the escalating potential for
war against Israel by Hamas and
Hezbollah, supported by Iran and al
Qaeda. We have called this the flash
point for the next regional (if not
global) war. 

The news that somehow has eluded the mainstream media in the US is that Israel
is now already on the brink of war, accelerated by a renewed barrage of rockets
and missiles from Gaza on Israeli civilians. In the last four days, Israel has received
over 150 rockets crashing into populated areas of its southern region. Israel¶s
military response, to stop the missiles and take out the launchers, has been met
with condemnation from around the world. America is ignoring the threat, or worse,
supporting it. 

One of the most egregious attacks, and the one that triggered the most severe
Israeli response, was an anti-tank missile assault on an Israeli school bus (see
above). The bus was almost empty, but a 16 year old boy, the sole remaining
passenger, is still fighting for his life from the critical head trauma that he received
from shrapnel when the bus was totally destroyed by the missile fired from Gaza.
The event went largely unnoticed here in the US, but its impact in Israel was sharp.

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Israel responded with justified force, took out strategic Hamas targets in Gaza, and
killed several Hamas leaders, including the man who kidnapped Gilad Shalit from
Israeli territory in 2006. 

Hamas has claimed that since the day of the bus attack, Israel has committed war
crimes against women, children, and the elderly. The group charged that the IDF
hit an ambulance as part of its strikes on Gaza. But Israel¶s firepower is highly
sophisticated and its targeting is extremely precise. The fact that Hamas uses
ambulances transport missiles and Hamas fighters instead of injured civilians, and
therefore in specific cases are legitimate targets, has already been well-
documented in many videos and first hand reports, including this one). If Israeli
firepower did, in fact, hit an ambulance, this was no doubt the reason.

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In the 2006 Lebanon war, in a brilliantly orchestrated PR campaign by Hezbollah,


Israel was vilified for what was presented to the press as mass murder of babies
and innocent civilians. Despite an enormous quantity of recorded proof to the
contrary, Hezbollah was successful in turning world opinion against Israel.

The accusation that Israel has a policy of targetikng civilians in its battles with
Hamas and Hezbollah is old. It is also totally false. The truth is that civilian
casualties are often the product of war, regardless of who is fighting. In Israel¶s
case, the targets are much more complicated than they seem. Nevertheless, the
question hangs in the air: why does Israel kill civilians in its war against terrorism?
The answer is deceptively simple and straightforward.

Historically, Israel¶s reputation for taking exceptional measures to avoid civilian


casualties when engaged in battle has not gone unnoticed by her enemies. Both
Hamas and Hezbollah follow a practice of placing military assets, heavy guns, and
high explosives in the midst of heavily populated areas, knowing that Israel will
think twice about striking these targets and risking civilian casualties. In fact, Israel
goes to extraordinary lengths to avoid hitting civilian targets, dropping leaflets (in
Arabic) to warn civilians of impending strikes, and calling their homes and cell
phones to alert them to leave the target area. But the terrorist organizations
understand well the underlying constraints and exploit them.

Both Hamas and Hezbollah appropriate homes and community centers such as
schools and hospitals for the positioning and storage of heavy weapons, munitions,
and explosives. They fire their weapons from deep inside heavily populated areas
(see photo of rocket being fired from Gaza City) This is not Israeli propaganda. It

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is well- documented information, which you can find here and here (this is an
excellent video documenting the use of human shields by Hamas) as well as
elsewhere.

Yet the propaganda continues. Arab League head Amr Musa has already called for
the UN Security Council to impose a ³no-fly zone" over Gaza. One can expect that
this will include the bombing of Israeli assets V 6 la Libya

Meanwhile, the PR continues to flow. The following was posted today on an


Australian blog: ³Israeli apache helicopters open fire at Palestinian houses in the
heavily populated neighbourhood of Shuja¶eya east of Gaza. There are also reports
of Israeli military boats firing at houses. Palestinian sources say that an ambulance
was hit in one of the strikes. Five people have been killed, one a man of 50 by an
Israel tank shell and the latest victim is Saleh Tarabin (38). Some 30-40 people
have been wounded.´

The only reference in the entire posting to cause and effect refers to the single
missile strike on a school bus, but omits the fact that this was one of fifty missiles
and rockets fired from Gaza into southern Israel V V 
 or that the Israeli
strikes are V    to the massive shelling on Israel¶s populated areas from
Gaza (the school bus shelling was simply the proverbial µstraw¶). It also fails to
mention Hamas¶ use of human shields by placing military assets in densely
populated civilian areas as a cause of civilian casualties.

Faced with these realities, Israel must attempt to stop the assault on her own
population or face the inevitable death of many of her citizens and the destruction
of her population centers. It is a choice which Israel¶s leaders do not take lightly.
They have to make calculated decisions in every case, weighing the possibility of
µcollateral damage¶ when Israeli forces strike at enemy targets placed in civilian
areas.

Israel¶s code of behavior in war is clearly stated in both law and regulation. It is
also articulated clearly in a code that every soldier is taught in basic training, called
³The Spirit of the IDF´ (read this account from an American who served in the IDF).
It is based on a profound belief in the essential value of all human lives, and
precludes the careless or willful taking of either life or dignity of even an enemy
non-combatant. But when faced with such a choice as the trade-off between risking
civilian casualties while stopping the enemy or risking the lives of her citizens,
Israel¶s first obligation is to her citizens. (For more on this and other issues, you
may find this interview interesting. You may also want to read this article on
³disproportionate´ response).

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How would we respond if, for example, New Hampshire, which is slightly larger than
the state of Israel and roughly the same shape, were faced with a barrage of
thousands of rockets and mortars over a period of several years, from just across
the Canadian border? Would we show µrestraint¶ and let it go on for years? How
would New Hampshire¶s residents adjust to running for cover several times a day,
spending hours every day in cold shelters, listening to the incoming rockets that put
their lives at risk, damage their property, prevent them from going to work, and
disrupt their economy? Would there be no response? Would their concern about
'collateral damage' immobilize them? Or would they fight back with all their
resources to stop the assault? And who would blame them?

In the 1990s, then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was asked about how
µcollateral damage¶ (specifically, the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children as the result
of US sanctions) could be justified. She did not dispute the number, but just said:
"We think the price is worth it."

However, when it is Israel on the front lines, values are different and one fatality in
Gaza City from Israeli bombs merits a front page story in the West. The world turns
a blind eye to Israel¶s existential dilemma, and worse, threatens retaliation for
Israel daring to defend herself and the lives and security of her citizens.

The threat comes not only from the Muslim states that surround Israel, or from
those further away such as Iran, or from the terrorist organizations whose
existence is based on the destruction of Western values in general and Israel in
particular. It also comes from Western countries, including our own, which was
once Israel¶s ally but has now taken a position somewhere between indifference and
throwing her to the wolves.

Semi-official rumblings from in and around the administration do not give reason
for optimism. Obama advisor Samantha Power, for example, who some believe will
be tapped as the new Secretary of State if Obama wins the 2012 elections, has
openly called for a US invasion of Israel on behalf of the Palestinian people. Earlier
administrations have threatened Israel with bombing, should her leaders not agree
to US demands for what many Israelis consider unreasonable restraint that
compromises her national security.

Israel stands alone in a world that largely wants to see her gone. Incredibly, her
leaders still believe in America¶s friendship, and continue to respond to US

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demands. But it is a trust that may be misplaced, and should be re-evaluated,
given the current administration¶s clear anti-Israel posture in the growing Middle
East unrest.

Interestingly, in a recent Gallup Poll, in response to the question: ³In the Middle
East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or with the
Palestinians?´, 63% of the Americans queried said that they favored the Israelis,
and only 17% favored the Palestinians. Yet American policy is clearly divorced from
popular opinion, as it seems to be on many other issues as well.

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Despite the fall of Mubarak and his government, the demonstrations in Cairo
continue, only now they include large gatherings in front of the Israeli Embassy,
where the demonstrators chant anti-Israel slogans, burn the Israeli flag, and call for
the dismissal of Israel¶s Ambassador to Egypt. They question the Egyptian-Israeli
Peace Accord and condemn Israel for its strikes on Gaza. Similar demonstrations
have taken place in Tunisia and Libya, while in Yemen, President Saleh recently
said, "The events from Tunisia to Oman are a storm orchestrated from Tel Aviv and
under Washington's supervision. . . What is taking place on Yemen's streets is just
a copycat attempt. . . . led from outside" by people who are in the pay of "Zionists".

Attributing everything that is wrong in the Arab world to Jews and Israel is nothing
new. Anti-Semitism has been a societal phenomenon for several thousand years,
for reasons that I, for one, will never understand. And since 1948, Israel has been
the most handy target in this historical offensive.

Now Israel is coming to a very dangerous crossroads, unlike anything she has faced
before. Enemies who supply each other with poison gas, sophisticated long range
missiles, and creative approaches to warfare against ³the Zionists´, are a
determined, fanatical enemy, willing to die (or let their foot soldiers die) in order to
kill Jews and destroy the Jewish state. Under the guiding hand of Ahmadinejad,
Hezbollah and Hamas have amassed huge arsenals of lethality, all aimed at Israel¶s
heart. All that is needed is the trigger point, which resides in the hands of a
madman.

As the momentum of rocket and missile attacks against her continues to grow in
intensity, and her responses are met with new threats, the situation is likely to
escalate quickly. I believe that the escalation in attacks from Gaza is Iran's way of
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testing Israel¶s new Iron Dome system, as well as her will to use it against the
rockets. It exposes Israel¶s capability in this area and may well influence the trigger
point that will start the next Middle East war.

So far, Iron Dome has worked very well. This marks the first time in history that
short-range rockets have been successfully intercepted in mid-air. With a
development cost of $200 million and a per missile price-tag of $22,000, the
system was untested in battle until this week, when it took down several in-bound
rockets in mid-flight (see one of them here). The Israeli-developed system
surpasses the technology of the American Patriot missile, using cameras and radar
to track incoming rockets. It is supposed to shoot them down within seconds of
their launch, and Israel has now shown that they work. But Israel¶s future security
cannot depend on Iron Dome alone.

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American ongoing policy against Israel contrasts sharply with Israel¶s intrinsic value
to us as an ally and partner in the war against terrorism. Despite the recent wave
of so-called µdemocratic¶ revolutions throughout the region, Israel remains the only
true democratic society in the Middle East. Her contribution to the world¶s
knowledge is truly amazing. She is also the source of much of the life-changing
technology that rules our lives, and an invaluable resource for strategic intelligence
from areas where the US has no assets on the ground. 

An example of Israel¶s technology is the ³AGM-142 Have Nap´, a derivative of the


Israeli Popeye missile, which the United States Air Force has acquired for its fleet of
85 active B-52 bombers. The AGM-142 is a short-range, television or imaging
infrared-guided, air-to-surface cruise missile. It was developed and manufactured
by the Israeli defense firm Rafael Armament Development Authority. The USAF
version has a moderate number of minor modifications to fit the configurations of
the US planes. This medium range conventional stand off missile provides the Air
Force with a precision man-in-the-loop capability for the B-52H to attack high
value, fixed targets from standoff ranges. The weapon will be licensed for
manufacture in the US in a joint venture by Israel's Rafael and Lockheed Martin.

Israeli innovations have protected US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan with


creative solutions to other thorny military problems, as well. For example:

- TARGO is a complete mission life-cycle Helmet Mounted Avionics (HMA)


technology developed by Elbit Systems. This µsmart¶ system transfers the

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aircraft¶s avionics to the pilot¶s helmet, representing a new generation of personal
avionics that enable pilots to plan, rehearse, fly and debrief using their personal
helmets. It reduces dependence on dashboard and allows the pilot to keep their
focus where it needs to be in intense combat situations.

- The Bradley Reactive Armor Tiles, created by the Israel Defense Forces,
overlay US armored personnel carriers with embedded explosives that blast
outward to suppress incoming fire. The tiles have protected thousands of U.S.
troops in combat zones.

- The Israeli SIMON distance door-breaching system, developed by Raphael


Advanced Defense Systems, reduced soldiers¶ exposure to the enemies inside
buildings by providing a safe distance door breaching capability of up to 130 feet.

- The first unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) were first built in the 60s for
intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition. These pilotless remote-
controlled airplanes collect real-time video intelligence and targets enemy
combatants with laser-guided precision. The US used UAVs in Viet Nam for these
purposes.

- The first weaponized UAV, known as the Harpy, was developed in‘Israel by
Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), which later also developed a loitering killer
drone that has the capability to hunt illusive ground targets, such as anti-aircraft
systems (including Iran's S-300 anti-air missile), and mobile or concealed
ballistic missile launchersx UAVs are now used extensively by the US military to
limit the exposure of its pilots and ground forces to enemy gunfire, while
collecting valuable information from the ground, and targeting combatants
without exposing US pilots to ground fire. Israeli UAV technology has reduced the
number of piloted missions by US forces, leading to fewer American casualties in
difficult terrains like Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In other areas, Israel¶s intelligence from areas where the US has no assets, medical
technology used in combat and civilian settings, and commercial technology such as
the cell phone, AOL instant messaging, Intel Centrino technology, and many major
components of MicroSoft¶s Windows platform, were all developed in Israel. All of
these technologies have saved American lives and given strategic advantage to US
forces in combat zones.

To undervalue Israel¶s importance to America puts all that we believe in at risk, not
only strategically, but it compromises the ethical and moral imperative of
supporting our allies in their time of stress. To even consider supporting the

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concept of a world without Israel is to betray the values upon which our country
was founded and because of which we became great. Without Israel, the chaos that
has begun in the Middle East will quickly find its way to our own shores. Israel is
not only our strategic ally and partner, Israel is our µcanary in the coal mine¶.
Without Israel as our strategic partner, we will be less well prepared to meet the
enemy, or to win the war.

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What the American people overwhelmingly understand and support -
that Israel is our ally and that we must continue to support her - our government
must also quickly come to understand and to act accordingly on behalf of the
American people, whom they represent. Ahmadinejad has recently said, ³Soon we
will have a Middle-East without America and Israel in it.´ He mentioned America
first, and he made no distinction between us and Israel. Neither should we.

‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘ ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘

ILANA FREEDMAN is an intelligence analyst with over twenty years of experience in


the field. Trained in Israel, Ilana has forecast some of the major events in the last
decade, including the current crisis in the Middle East. She forecast the fall of Mubarak,
the spread of the uprisings throughout the region, she identified the hand of the Muslim
Brotherhood in the organizations of the demonstrations in Egypt, and she was among
the first to recognize the importance of Qaradawi's presence in Tahrir Square a week
after Mubarak's fall.

Ms Freedman has been a featured speaker at conferences and other events throughout
the US and around the world. She is a frequent guest on radio and television where she
provides analysis on the implications of current crises, and on the threat of global and
domestic terrorism to the US and the world.

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