1Q11 Earnings Surprise Preview Expect To Beat Consensus by Wide Margin

EQUITY RESEARCH 7 April 2011
1Q11 EARNINGS SURPRISE & PREVIEW EARNING FORECAST CHANGE
Americas Integrated Oil

Expect To Beat Consensus by Wide Margin 1-POSITIVE
Unchanged
We think 1Q11 earnings will be significantly higher than consensus estimates. We U.S. Independent Refiners
3-NEGATIVE
think the current published consensus estimates have not fully reflected the strong
Unchanged
Brent price environment as well as the higher light/heavy oil differentials. Companies
that are heavily exposed to Brent oil pricing (international and North America offshore For a full list of our ratings, price target and
operations) and have large refining exposure to WTI-linked crude or heavy oil will likely earnings changes in this report, please see
table on page 2.
beat the consensus by a wide margin. For 1Q11, we expect our group of 18 closely
followed major integrated oil and refining companies to earn $45.9 billion, up 35%
quarter over quarter and 54% year over year. Paul Y. Cheng, CFA
1.212.526.1884
Biggest Potential 1Q11 Upside Surprise: CVX, ALJ. paul.cheng@barcap.com
BCI, New York
Biggest Potential 1Q11 Downside Surprises: SUN.
Christina Cheng
We mark to market our 1Q11 oil price (Brent) to $106/bl from previously $99/bl, 1.212.526.5580
while changing our WTI price to $94/bl from $88/bl previously. We also adjust christina.cheng@barcap.com
our 2011 Brent assumption to $112/bl from $102/bl, while WTI assumption is BCI, New York
now $106bl versus $96/bl previously. We keep our 2012 Brent price assumption
Danielle Diamond
unchanged at $110/bl while modestly lowering our WTI assumption to $105/bl
1.212.526.4060
from $106/bl. Finally, we raise our long-term Brent assumption to $100/bl from
danielle.diamond@barcap.com
$90/bl in our valuation model. BCI, New York
We mark to market our 1Q11 natural gas price to $4.16/mmbtu from our previous
assumption of $4.25/mmbtu while lowering our 2011 and 2012 price assumption
to $4.13/mmbtu in each year from $4.15/mmbtu and $4.50/mmbtu, respectively.
We raise the Integrated Oils EPS forecasts by an average of 14% in 1Q11 and 16%
in 2011. For the Refiners, we lower our 1Q11 and 2011 EPS forecasts by 17%.
Please see our published reports: PC Oil Roadmap – March 2011 Production Target
Look Back, dated April 4, 2011; WTI/Brent Narrow + Negative Gasoline Demand =
Headwind for Refiners, dated March 31, 2011; Sunoco, Inc. A Step Closer To
Unlocking Value; Raise PT, dated March 25, 2011; UK Increases Oil & Gas Tax,
dated March 24, 2011; WTI-Linked Exposure, dated February 18, 2011; and
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Time to Revisit, Upgrade to 1-OW, dated February 10,
2011.
Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 78.
Barclays Capital | 1Q11 Earnings Surprise & Preview
Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)
Company Rating Price Price Target EPS FY1 (E) EPS FY2 (E)
Old New 06-Apr-11 Old New %Chg Old New %Chg Old New %Chg
Americas Integrated Oil 1-Pos 1-Pos

Chevron Corporation (CVX) 1-OW 1-OW 108.66 115.00 130.00 13 11.70 13.00 11 12.80 12.45 -3
ConocoPhillips (COP) 2-EW 2-EW 80.43 82.00 88.00 7 7.10 8.35 18 9.10 8.75 -4
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) 2-EW 2-EW 85.18 90.00 95.00 6 7.65 8.40 10 8.75 8.75 -
Hess Corp. (HES) 1-OW 1-OW 84.81 95.00 105.00 11 7.40 8.70 18 9.75 9.05 -7
Husky Energy, Inc. (HSE CT / HSE.TO) 2-EW 2-EW 29.19 27.00 30.00 11 1.85 2.05 11 1.95 1.75 -10
Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO CT / IMO.TO) 1-OW 1-OW 51.08 54.00 60.00 11 3.65 4.40 21 4.00 3.90 -3
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) 2-EW 2-EW 52.90 50.00 55.00 10 4.85 5.55 14 N/A 5.00 -
Murphy Oil (MUR) 1-OW 1-OW 75.46 78.00 85.00 9 6.10 7.30 20 7.65 7.90 3
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR) 2-EW 2-EW 40.48 41.00 49.00 20 3.90 4.45 14 4.50 4.40 -2
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR/A / PBRA) 1-OW 1-OW 35.58 40.00 48.00 20 3.90 4.45 14 4.50 4.40 -2
Suncor Energy (SU) 2-EW 2-EW 42.76 42.00 50.00 19 2.80 3.40 21 3.35 3.05 -9
U.S. Independent Refiners 3-Neg 3-Neg
Alon USA Energy (ALJ) 3-UW 3-UW 14.42 10.00 10.00 - 0.40 0.20 -50 N/A 0.75 -
Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK) 2-EW 2-EW 13.59 11.00 12.00 9 0.75 1.00 33 0.85 1.00 18
Frontier Oil (FTO) 2-EW 2-EW 30.25 28.00 28.00 - 2.15 2.20 2 N/A 1.70 -
Sunoco, Inc. (SUN) 1-OW 1-OW 45.67 58.00 58.00 - 1.85 0.40 -78 2.95 2.20 -25
Tesoro Corporation (TSO) 2-EW 2-EW 27.39 27.00 29.00 7 2.35 2.20 -6 3.00 2.25 -25
Valero Energy (VLO) 2-EW 2-EW 29.82 30.00 30.00 - 2.65 2.60 -2 3.20 3.15 -2
Source: Barclays Capital Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency.
FY1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Capital. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Capital.
Stock Rating: 1-OW: 1-Overweight 2-EW: 2-Equal Weight 3-UW: 3-Underweight RS: RS-Rating Suspended
Sector View: 1-Pos: 1-Positive 2-Neu: 2-Neutral 3-Neg: 3-Negative
7 April 2011 2
CONTENTS
1Q11 Earnings Surprise Preview............................................................................................................. 4

Expect To Beat Consensus By A Wide Margin............................................................................... 4
Biggest Potential Upside Surprise, in Our View: CVX, ALJ........................................................... 4
Biggest Potential Downside Surprises, in Our View: SUN ........................................................... 5
Expect operating earnings for the sector to rise 35% q-o-q and 54% y-o-y ......................... 5
Rating & Price Target Changes ......................................................................................................... 6
Other Recent Reports ..............................................................................................................................17
PC Oil Roadmap – March 2011 Production Target Look Back ......................................................22
WTI/Brent Narrow + Negative Gasoline Demand = Headwind for Refiners................................23
4 reasons why the spread could narrow substantially between April and November.......23
Sunoco, Inc. A Step Closer To Unlocking Value; Raise PT ..............................................................25
UK Increases Oil & Gas Tax ....................................................................................................................26
WTI-Linked Exposure ..............................................................................................................................27
Integrateds Net Exposure to WTI Linked Pricing ........................................................................27
Refiners Net Exposure to WTI Linked Pricing. .............................................................................27
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Time to Revisit, Upgrade to 1-OW ..........................................................28
Relative Valuation Attractive after a Disappointing 20-month Period...................................28
Share Price Performance ........................................................................................................................29
Oil Prices.....................................................................................................................................................30
OPEC............................................................................................................................................................32
Tanker Rates..............................................................................................................................................33
Commercial Crude Oil Inventories........................................................................................................34
Cushing Inventories .................................................................................................................................35
Paper Positions: Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable Net Paper Positions............................36
Natural Gas Prices ....................................................................................................................................37
Production and Upstream Sensitivity ..................................................................................................39
Refining.......................................................................................................................................................40
Gasoline Inventories ................................................................................................................................42
Distillate Inventories ................................................................................................................................43
U.S. Marketing Margins ..........................................................................................................................44
Refined Product Demand Trends .........................................................................................................45
Refining Capacity......................................................................................................................................47
EPS Sensitivity / Share Price ..................................................................................................................48
Reporting Calendar—1Q11....................................................................................................................49
Appendix: Calendar of Industry Events ...............................................................................................50
Comparative Valuations .........................................................................................................................51
Appendix: Company Earnings Variance..............................................................................................52
Integrateds EPS Summary......................................................................................................................68
Refiners EPS Summary............................................................................................................................72
7 April 2011 3
1Q11 Earnings Surprise Preview
Expect To Beat Consensus by a Wide Margin

We think 1Q11 earnings will be significantly higher than consensus estimates. We think the
current published consensus estimates have not fully reflected the strong Brent price
environment as well as the higher light/heavy oil differentials. Companies that are heavily
exposed to Brent oil pricing (international and North America offshore operations) and have
large refining exposure to WTI-linked crude or heavy oil will likely beat the consensus by a
wide margin. For 1Q11, we expect our group of 18 closely followed major integrated oil
and refining companies to earn $45.9 billion, up 35% quarter over quarter and 54% year
over year.
We mark to market our 1Q11 oil price (Brent) to $106/bl from previously $99/bl, while
changing our WTI price to $94/bl from $88/bl previously. We also adjust our 2011 Brent
assumption to $112/bl from $102/bl, while WTI assumption is now $106bl versus $96/bl
previously. We keep our 2012 Brent price assumption unchanged at $110/bl while
modestly lowering our WTI assumption to $105/bl from $106/bl. Finally, we raise our
long-term Brent assumption in our valuation model to $100/bl from $90/bl.
We mark to market our 1Q11 natural gas price to $4.16/mmbtu from our previous
assumption of $4.25/mmbtu while lowering our 2011 and 2012 price assumption to
$4.13/mmbtu in each year from $4.15/mmbtu and $4.50/mmbtu, respectively.
Biggest Potential Upside Surprise, in Our View: CVX, ALJ

In general, we expect our group of Integrateds and Refiners to beat consensus expectations
across the board with the exception of SUN and VLO. Companies that are heavily exposed
to Brent oil pricing (international and North America offshore operations) and have large
refining exposure to WTI-linked crude or heavy oil will likely beat the consensus by a wide
margin.
From our universe, we expect CVX and ALJ to have the most upside versus consensus
estimates.
CVX: We expect the company to report an EPS of $3.03/share, compared to consensus of

$2.70/share. We forecast worldwide oil and gas realizations at $74.3/boe, compared to
$57.4/boe in 1Q10 and $62.8/boe in 4Q10. We forecast total production at 2,756 mboe/d,
compared to 2,783 mboe/d in 1Q10 and 2,786 mboe/d in 4Q10 and exploration expense at
$275 million, compared to $180 million in 1Q10 and $335 million in 4Q10. In downstream
(refining + chemicals), we expect CVX to report a profit of $515 million, up 49% year over
year and 51% quarter over quarter.
Our CVX 1Q11 estimate assumes zero LIFO inventory gain/(loss). However, we assume
derivative and timing loss of $100 million after-tax, or $0.05/share loss. Our estimate also
includes a $100 million FX loss ($245 million in international upstream; $100 million in
international downstream), or $0.05/share. Our estimate also includes the effect of
recently enact higher UK tax rate, effective late March.
ALJ: We expect the company to report an EPS of $0.29/share, compared to consensus of

$0.01/share, representing the first profitable quarter since 1Q09. We expect Big Spring
refinery could earn $67 million operating profit due to the severe WTI spread and a large
7 April 2011 4
contango benefit in the quarter. Our estimate does not include any hedging or inventory
gain or loss in the period.
Biggest Potential Downside Surprises, in Our View: SUN

SUN: We expect the company to report a loss of $0.20/share, compared to consensus of
$0.28/share profit. SUN has zero exposure to the WTI/Brent spread following its sale of
Toledo refinery, which was completed in late February. Our SUN 1Q11 estimate also
includes a negative crude-purchase five-day lag effect of $32 million pre-tax loss or
$0.17/share loss. In addition to a challenging Northeast refining market, result was hurt by
the company’s heavy outage in the quarter. We estimate realized refining margins at
$4.3/bl, compared to $4.1/bl in 1Q10 and $4.8/bl in 4Q10 and total production at 557
mb/d, down 6% y-o-y and 12% q-o-q.
As a side note, our 1Q11 estimate also includes two months of Toledo operation until it was
sold.
Expect operating earnings for the sector to rise 35% q-o-q and 54% y-o-y
For our group of 18 closely followed major oil companies, we expect earnings to be up 35%
quarter over quarter with Refining, Marketing, and Transportation earnings up 52%.
Compared to 4Q10, we expect earnings to be up 54% mainly due to higher Refining result.
Figure 1: Operating Earnings, $ in millions (except per share)

1Q11E 1Q10A % Change 4Q10A % Change
Exploration and Production $38,284 $27,931 37 $28,682 33

Refining, Marketing & Transportation $6,731 $2,047 229 $4,415 52
Chemicals $2,295 $1,853 24 $1,986 16
Corporate and Others ($1,430) ($2,091) (32) ($984) 45
Net Income $45,879 $29,740 54 $34,099 35
Earnings Per Share $1.71 $1.22 41 $1.27 35
Note: Includes BP, CVX, COP, XOM, HES, MRO, MUR, RDSA/RDSB, and SU as Integrated Oil companies.
Includes ALJ, DK, FTO, SUN, TSO, and VLO as independent refiners and marketers.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates
7 April 2011 5
Rating & Price Target Changes

We also make several changes to our price targets (see Figure 5).
Chevron: We raise our price target to $130 from $115 per share. Our 12-month price target
implies a 7.3% return on market capitalization (ROMC) under a long term nominal oil price
deck of $100/bl Brent (previously based on a mid-cycle market assumption of $90 per
barrel flat real) from 2014, representing an equity risk premium of 2.8% based on our
current estimated 10-year Treasury yield of 7.0%, or 4.5% after-tax, compared to our target
risk premium of 2.5% for XOM, 3.2% for ConocoPhillips and Marathon, and 3.5% for
Murphy and Hess.
ConocoPhillips: We raise our price target to $88 from $82 per share. Our 12-month price
target implies a 7.7% ROMC under a long-term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brent
(previously based on a mid-cycle market assumption of $90 per barrel flat real) from 2014,
representing an equity risk premium of 3.2% based on our current estimated 10-year
Treasury yield of 7.0%, or 4.5% after-tax, compared to our target risk premium of 2.5% for
XOM, 2.8% for Chevron, 3.2% for Marathon, and 3.5% for Murphy and Hess. We also add
$7/share for its long-cycle discovered-known-resource base.
Exxon Mobil: We raise our price target to $95 from $90 per share. Our near-term (12-
month) price target implies a 7.0% ROMC a long-term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl
Brent (previously based on a mid-cycle market assumption of $90 per barrel flat real),
Treasury yield of 7.0%, or 4.5% after tax, compared with our target risk premium of 2.8%
for Chevron, 3.2% for Marathon and ConocoPhillips, and 3.5% for Hess and Murphy.
Hess: We raise our price target to $105 from $95 per share. Our 12-month price target
implies an 8.0% ROMC under a long-term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brent
(previously mid-cycle market assumption of $90 per barrel flat real) from 2014,
XOM, 2.8% for Chevron, 3.2% for ConocoPhillips and Marathon, and 3.5% for Murphy. We
also add $10/share (unchanged) for its exploration potential and long-cycle discovered-
hidden reserves.
Husky Energy: We raise our price target to C$30 from C$27 per share. Our 12-month price
target is based on a 10% discount to our estimated NAV of approximately C$33/share
(previously assumed no discount to the former NAV assumption of C$27/share) based on a
long-term oil price assumption of $100/bl Brent (previously $90/bl flat WTI basis).
Imperial Oil: We raise our price target to $60 from $54 per share. Our price target is based
on a 15% premium to our estimate of the company's NAV of C$52/share (previously
C$47/share), using a long-term oil price assumption of $100/bl Brent (previously $90 per
barrel flat WTI spot basis).
Marathon Oil: We raise our price target to $55 from $50 per share. Our 12-month price
target is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis. We assume the standalone E&P will trade at
5.8x EV/2012 (previously 5.1x) EBIDA vs. the large cap E&P companies average multiple of
6.5x and the standalone R&M at 6.0x EV/2012 EBITDA (previously 5.0x) compared to
average (FTO, TSO, VLO) of 5.2x.
Murphy Oil: We raise our price target to $85 from $78 per share. Our 12-month price target
implies an 8.0% ROMC under a long-term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brent
7 April 2011 6
(previously based under a mid-cycle market assumption of $90 per barrel flat real from
2014), representing an equity risk premium of 3.5% based on our current estimated 10-year
XOM, 2.8% for Chevron, 3.2% for ConocoPhillips, and 3.5% for Hess. We also add $7/share
(previously $15/share) for the company's long cycle discovered hidden reserves and
exploration potential.
Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR): We raise our price target to $49 from $41 per share. Our 12-
month price target implies that the stock trades at a 5% premium to our NAV estimate of
$47/ADS (previously assumed no premium based on our NAV estimate of $41/ADS) under
a long-term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brent (previously $90/bl oil).
Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR.A): We raise our price target to $48 from $40 per share. Our 12-
month price target implies that the stock trades at a 5% premium to our NAV estimate of
$47/ADS (previously assumed no premium based on our NAV estimate of $41/ADS) under
a long term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brent (previously $90/bl oil). We take a
$1/ADS discount to PBR's price target to reflect the lesser share liquidity and the lack of
voting rights.
Suncor Energy: We raise our price target to C$50 from C$42 per share. Our 12-month price
target is based on a 10% premium to our NAV estimate of C$46/share (previously
C$38/share) using a long-term oil price deck of $100/bl Brent (previously $90/bl oil price
deck) and a 10% discount rate.
Delek: We raise our price target to $12 from $11 per share. Our price target is based on an
EV/daily barrel of complexity of $650 (previously $600), or 41% (previously 38%) of the
estimated greenfield replacement value of $1,600/bl/d. During the 2007 cycle peak, DK
traded at 62% of greenfield replacement value.
Tesoro: We raise our price target to $29 from $27 per share. Our price target methodology
assumes that TSO trades at a $800 per daily barrel of complexity (previously $775 per daily
barrel of complexity). This is 50% (previously 48%) of the estimated greenfield
replacement value of $1,600/bl. At the last cycle troughs in 2002 and 1999, TSO was
trading at $460 and $197 per daily barrel of complexity, or 46% and 24% of the estimated
greenfield replacement cost, respectively.
7 April 2011 7
Figure 2: Earnings per Share before Special Items, in US$
Earnings per Share before Special Items, in US$.

BarCap vs. BarCap vs. Expected
Price as of 1Q11E 1Q10A 4Q10A Reporting
4/6/2011 BarCap Est FC % difference 1Q10A Change 4Q10A Change Date
America-Based Majors - Sector Rating 1 - Positive
CVX (a) $108.66 $3.03 $2.70 12% $2.36 29% $2.44 25% 29-Apr
COP (b) $80.43 $2.02 $1.73 17% $1.47 38% $1.32 53% 27-Apr
XOM (c) $85.18 $2.16 $1.86 16% $1.33 62% $1.85 17% 28-Apr
HES (d) $84.81 $2.02 $1.76 14% $1.49 36% $1.05 92% 27-Apr
HSE-TSE (e) C$29.19 C$0.47 C$0.40 17% C$0.41 15% C$0.35 32% 27-Apr
IMO-TSE C$51.08 C$1.06 C$0.86 23% C$0.56 89% C$0.94 13% 28-Apr
MRO (f) $52.90 $1.43 $1.21 18% $0.44 222% $1.09 31% 3-May
MUR (g) $75.46 $0.92 $0.92 1% $0.77 19% $0.90 3% 5-May
PBR (h) $40.48 $1.09 $0.91 20% $0.98 11% $0.90 21% 10-May
PBRA (h) $35.58 $1.09 $0.91 20% $0.98 11% $0.90 21% 10-May
SU.TO (C$) (i) C$42.76 C$0.94 C$0.68 38% C$0.21 NM C$0.55 72% 3-May
Domestic Independent Refiners and Marketers - Sector Rating 3 - Negative

ALJ (j) $14.42 $0.29 $0.01 4669% ($0.91) NM ($0.37) 177% 4-May
DK (k) $13.59 $0.56 $0.29 91% ($0.27) NM ($0.14) NM 5-May
FTO (l) $30.25 $1.03 $0.84 24% ($0.39) NM $0.03 NM 5-May
SUN (m) $45.67 ($0.20) $0.28 (172)% $0.14 NM $0.11 NM 5-May
TSO (n) $27.39 $0.68 $0.58 17% ($0.97) NM ($0.13) NM 5-May
VLO (o) $29.82 $0.30 $0.49 (38)% ($0.18) NM $0.24 27% 26-Apr
(a) CVX 1Q11 estimate assumes zero LIFO inventory gain/(loss). However, we assume derivative and timing loss of $100 mm after-tax,
or $0.05/share loss. Our estimate also includes a $100 mm FX loss ($245 mm in international upstream; $100 mm in international downstream),
or $0.05/share. Our estimate also includes the effect of recently enact higher UK tax rate, effective late March.
(b) COP 2011 and 2012 estimates exclude Libya starting mid-February 2011. Results also include the recent enact higher UK oil & gas income tax
of 12% effective late March
(c) XOM estimates include the impact of the recent UK tax increases from 50% to 62% effective late March 2011.
(d) HES estimates include the previously disclosed hedging loss of approximately $85 mm, or $0.25/share loss.
Our estimates also exclude Libya starting mid-February while including the impact of the recent UK tax increases from 50% to 62%.
(e) HSE 1Q11 estimate includes a C$80 mm exploration expense, or C$0.07/share charge. Starting 2011, the company has shifted from full cost
to successful efforts.
(f) MRO estimates exclude Libya starting mid-February while including the impact of the recent UK tax increases from 50% to 62%, effective late
March. Our estimate does not include any hedging gain/(loss) in the quarter.
(g) MUR 2011 and 2012 estimates still include its refining operation. We will adjust our estimate upon announcement of firm sales contracts.
However, our estimates have already inlcuded the impact of the recent UK tax increass from 50% to 62%.
(h) PBR/PBRA estimates assume a R$2,000 mm of interest on capital in 1Q11. 1Q11 estimate also assumes a pre-tax FX gain of R$1,305 mm,
or R$0.20/ADS.
(i) SU estimate excludes FX loss related to debt revaluation and oil sands project deferral charge. Our estimate, however, include hedging gain/(loss),
C$0 for this quarter, and a C$232 mm FIFO inventory pre-tax gain in the R&M segment, or C$0.11/share. Our estimates also exclude Libya starting
mid-February while including the impact of the recent UK tax increase from 50% to 62%.
(j) ALJ 1Q11 estimate assume zero inventory/hedging gain/(loss).
(k) DK 1Q11 estimate assumes no inventory/trading gain/(loss). 2011 and 2012 estimates adjust for the pending Lion majority ownership acquisition
(l) FTO 1Q11 estimate assume zero inventory gain/(loss) but a hedging loss of $21.3 mm pre-tax, or $0.12/share loss, as well as contango benefit
of $1.8/b for 80% of El Dorado crude purchase. Our 2011and 2012 estimates do not reflect the pending merger with Holly.
(m) SUN 1Q11 estimate includes a negative crude purchase 5-day lag effect of $32 mm pre-tax loss or $0.17/share loss. 1Q11 estimate also
includes 2 month of Toledo operation until it was sold.
(n) TSO estimate does not include any inventory or hedging gain or loss. However, our estimate include a $47.5 mm pre-tax, or $0.21/share
charge. stock-based compensation in view of the sharp share price appreication in the quarter.
(o) VLO VLO 1Q11 estimate includes an estimate hedging/trading loss of $384 mm after-tax, or $0.67/share. 2011 and 2012 estimates also assume
the pending acquisition of CVX's European R&M operation by early July.
*Dates in blue are tentative
Source: Company data, FactSet, Barclays Capital estimates
7 April 2011 8
Figure 3: EPS Revisions

1Q11E 2Q11E 3Q11E 4Q11E 2011E 2012E
Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New % Old New %
Earnings per Share
Integrated Oils
CVX (a) $2.78 $3.03 $2.93 $3.66 $2.85 $3.11 $3.15 $3.20 $11.70 $13.00 11% $12.80 $12.45 -3%
COP (b) $1.72 $2.02 $1.76 $2.39 $1.76 $1.96 $1.88 $1.97 $7.10 $8.35 18% $9.10 $8.75 -4%
XOM (c) $2.00 $2.16 $1.90 $2.28 $1.71 $1.88 $2.05 $2.08 $7.65 $8.40 10% $8.75 $8.75 0%
HES (d) $1.77 $2.02 $1.60 $2.29 $1.77 $2.07 $2.26 $2.32 $7.40 $8.70 18% $9.75 $9.05 -7%
HSE (e) $0.36 C$0.47 C$0.49 C$0.59 C$0.47 C$0.51 C$0.55 C$0.47 C$1.85 C$2.05 11% C$1.95 C$1.75 -10%
IMO $0.92 C$1.06 C$0.95 C$1.23 C$0.85 C$1.07 C$0.93 C$1.07 C$3.65 C$4.40 21% C$4.00 C$3.90 -2%
MRO (f) $1.56 $1.43 $1.31 $1.64 $0.90 $1.21 $1.09 $1.26 $4.85 $5.55 14% $5.70 $5.00 -12%
MUR (g) $0.87 $0.92 $1.84 $2.43 $1.65 $2.11 $1.73 $1.86 $6.10 $7.30 20% $7.65 $7.90 3%
PBR (h) $0.99 $1.09 $0.98 $1.26 $0.91 $1.02 $1.02 $1.08 $3.90 $4.45 14% $4.50 $4.40 -2%
PBRA (h) $0.99 $1.09 $0.98 $1.26 $0.91 $1.02 $1.02 $1.08 $3.90 $4.45 14% $4.50 $4.40 -2%
SU.TO (C$) (i) C$0.69 C$0.94 C$0.57 C$0.83 C$0.74 C$0.83 C$0.82 C$0.82 C$2.80 C$3.40 21% C$3.35 C$3.05 -9%
Average 16% -4%
Independent Refiners
ALJ (j) $0.25 $0.29 $0.16 $0.14 ($0.07) ($0.21) $0.07 ($0.03) $0.40 $0.20 -50% $0.85 $0.75 -12%
DK (k) $0.33 $0.56 $0.38 $0.40 ($0.09) ($0.13) $0.15 $0.22 $0.75 $1.00 33% $0.85 $1.00 18%
FTO(l) $1.15 $1.03 $0.68 $0.68 ($0.06) $0.06 $0.38 $0.40 $2.15 $2.20 2% $1.75 $1.70 -3%
SUN (m) $0.31 ($0.20) $0.89 $0.51 $0.57 $0.25 $0.10 ($0.17) $1.85 $0.40 -78% $2.95 $2.20 -25%
TSO (n) $0.79 $0.68 $0.87 $0.97 $0.50 $0.33 $0.21 $0.23 $2.35 $2.20 -6% $3.00 $2.25 -25%
VLO (o) $0.30 $0.30 $1.02 $1.16 $0.59 $0.52 $0.75 $0.60 $2.65 $2.60 -2% $3.20 $3.15 -2%
Average -17% -8%
(a) CVX 1Q11 estimate assumes zero LIFO inventory gain/(loss). However, we assume derivative and timing loss of $100 mm after-tax, or $0.05/share loss. Our estimate also includes a
$100 mm FX loss ($245 mm in international upstream; $100 mm in international downstream), or $0.05/share. Our estimate also includes the effect of recently enact higher UK tax rate,
effective late March.
(b) COP 2011 and 2012 estimates exclude Libya starting mid-February 2011. Results also include the recent enact higher UK oil & gas income tax of 12% effective late March
(c) XOM estimates include the impact of the recent UK tax increases from 50% to 62% effective late March 2011.
(d) HES estimates include the previously disclosed hedging loss of approximately $85 mm, or $0.25/share loss. Our estimates also exclude Libya starting mid-February while including the
impact of the recent UK tax increases from 50% to 62%.
(e) HSE 1Q11 estimate includes a C$80 mm exploration expense, or C$0.07/share charge. Starting 2011, the company has shifted from full cost to successful efforts.
(f) MRO estimates exclude Libya starting mid-February while including the impact of the recent UK tax increases from 50% to 62%, effective late March. Our estimate does not include any
hedging gain/(loss) in the quarter.
(g) MUR 2011 and 2012 estimates still include its refining operation. We will adjust our estimate upon announcement of firm sales contracts. However, our estimates have already inlcuded
the impact of the recent UK tax increass from 50% to 62%.
(h) PBR/PBRA estimates assume a R$2,000 mm of interest on capital in 1Q11. 1Q11 estimate also assumes a pre-tax FX gain of R$1,305 mm, or R$0.20/ADS.
(i) SU estimate excludes FX loss related to debt revaluation and oil sands project deferral charge. Our estimate, however, include hedging gain/(loss), C$0 for this quarter, and a C$232 mm
FIFO inventory pre-tax gain in the R&M segment, or C$0.11/share. Our estimates also exclude Libya starting mid-February while including the impact of the recent UK tax increase from
50% to 62%.
(j) ALJ 1Q11 estimate assume zero inventory/hedging gain/(loss).
(k) DK 1Q11 estimate assumes no inventory/trading gain/(loss). 2011 and 2012 estimates adjust for the pending Lion majority ownership acquisition
(l) FTO 1Q11 estimate assume zero inventory gain/(loss) but a hedging loss of $21.3 mm pre-tax, or $0.12/share loss, as well as contango benefit of $1.8/b for 80% of El Dorado crude
purchase. Our 2011and 2012 estimates do not reflect the pending merger with Holly.
(m) SUN 1Q11 estimate includes a negative crude purchase 5-day lag effect of $32 mm pre-tax loss or $0.17/share loss. 1Q11 estimate also includes 2 month of Toledo operation until it
was sold.
(n) TSO estimate does not include any inventory or hedging gain or loss. However, our estimate include a $47.5 mm pre-tax, or $0.21/share charge. stock-based compensation in view of
the sharp share price appreication in the quarter.
(o) VLO 1Q11 estimate includes an estimate hedging/trading loss of $384 mm after-tax, or $0.67/share. 2011 and 2012 estimates also assume the pending acquisition of CVX's European
R&M operation by early July.
7 April 2011 9
Figure 4: Macro Assumptions

2010A 1Q11A 2Q11E 3Q11E 4Q11E 2011E 2012E Average
Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New % Old New % 2001-2010
Macro Assumption
Oil Prices (WTI spot) $79.08 $88.00 $94.48 $93.00 $113.50 $98.00 $108.50 $103.00 $106.50 $95.50 $105.75 11% $105.50 $105.25 0% $56.15
Oil Prices (Brent spot) $79.43 $99.30 $105.96 $100.00 $120.00 $100.00 $110.00 $110.00 $112.00 $102.33 $112.00 9% $110.00 $110.00 0% $54.24
WTI/Brent Spread ($/b) ($0.35) ($11.30) ($11.48) ($7.00) ($6.50) ($2.00) ($1.50) ($7.00) ($5.50) ($6.83) ($6.25) 8% ($4.50) ($4.75) -6% $1.91
WTI/LLS Spread ($/b) ($3.64) ($14.30) ($13.95) ($10.00) ($9.00) ($5.00) ($4.00) ($10.00) ($8.00) ($9.83) ($8.74) 11% ($7.50) ($7.25) 3% ($1.42)
WTI/Maya Discount ($/b) $8.81 $3.96 $3.91 $7.76 $8.07 $11.26 $11.57 $8.76 $8.47 $7.94 $8.01 1% $10.01 $8.97 -10% $10.54
WTI/Lyold Blend Discount ($/b) $11.78 $11.88 $11.65 $12.09 $14.76 $12.74 $14.11 $13.39 $13.85 $12.53 $13.59 8% $13.72 $13.68 0% $14.51
WTI/WCS Discount ($/b) $14.87 $22.09 $22.18 $18.60 $16.46 $14.70 $14.65 $15.45 $17.04 $17.71 $17.58 -1% $15.24 $14.67 -4% NA
WTI/WTS Discount ($/b) $1.88 $4.40 $3.56 $3.26 $2.84 $1.96 $2.44 $3.09 $2.40 $3.18 $2.81 -12% $2.70 $2.61 -3% $3.28
US Spot Composite ($/mmbtu) $4.34 $4.25 $4.16 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.35 $4.35 $4.15 $4.13 0% $4.50 $4.13 -8% $5.62
Refining Margin ($/b)

Merchant Centers
US Gulf Coast LLS 6-3-2-1 $2.00 $2.00 $2.06 $3.00 $3.50 $2.00 $2.00 $1.50 $1.50 $2.13 $2.27 7% $2.44 $2.52 3% $3.52
US Gulf Coast WTI 3-2-1 $10.16 $18.16 $20.21 $14.97 $18.05 $9.08 $9.30 $13.69 $12.85 $13.98 $15.10 8% $12.19 $13.07 7% $9.37
NW Europe (Simple) $0.90 ($1.50) ($1.76) $1.50 $0.68 $0.50 $0.18 $0.25 $0.18 $0.19 ($0.18) -195% $0.88 $0.32 -64% $1.12
NW Europe (Medium) $2.25 $1.38 $1.66 $2.15 $2.26 $1.01 $2.07 $1.82 $2.04 $1.59 $2.01 26% $2.06 $2.29 11% $1.98
Singapore (simple) $0.47 $1.50 $0.45 $0.25 $0.50 $0.25 $0.50 $0.25 $0.25 $0.56 $0.43 -23% $0.69 $0.44 -36% $0.22
Singapore (medium) $4.93 $7.11 $7.96 $5.61 $8.12 $4.86 $6.87 $6.11 $6.57 $5.92 $7.38 25% $5.92 $6.63 12% $4.91
Other Centers
US - Northeast $4.02 $4.60 $4.75 $4.60 $4.69 $3.60 $3.19 $3.60 $3.19 $4.10 $3.96 -3% $4.41 $4.21 -5% $3.82
US - Midwest $12.73 $20.00 $22.68 $17.08 $20.26 $12.74 $14.21 $14.40 $16.11 $16.05 $18.31 14% $14.32 $15.95 11% $12.64
US - Mid-Continent $7.00 $15.00 $16.75 $12.78 $14.48 $8.03 $9.23 $11.28 $11.73 $11.77 $13.05 11% $10.59 $12.43 17% $8.10
US - Rocky Mountain $11.92 $18.75 $19.43 $16.97 $17.98 $11.08 $12.60 $13.48 $14.38 $15.07 $16.10 7% $13.59 $14.85 9% NA
US - California $7.34 $8.50 $9.54 $10.50 $11.59 $9.50 $8.84 $8.50 $8.29 $9.25 $9.56 3% $10.25 $9.55 -7% $12.09
US - Pacific NW $11.76 $12.50 $12.51 $12.50 $13.59 $11.50 $10.84 $10.50 $10.29 $11.75 $11.81 1% $12.25 $11.55 -6% NA
Japan $3.75 $4.40 $4.79 $3.40 $4.95 $2.65 $3.70 $3.90 $3.40 $3.59 $4.21 17% $3.71 $3.46 -7% NA
6% 4%
U.S. Integrated Marketing Margins ($/gallon)
PADD I $0.337 $0.336 $0.315 $0.332 $0.291 $0.343 $0.339 $0.284 $0.314 $0.324 $0.315 -3% $0.274 $0.319 16% $0.330
PADD II $0.285 $0.336 $0.276 $0.337 $0.259 $0.329 $0.317 $0.299 $0.288 $0.325 $0.285 -12% $0.275 $0.305 11% $0.247
PADD III $0.254 $0.297 $0.225 $0.306 $0.208 $0.293 $0.265 $0.266 $0.235 $0.290 $0.233 -20% $0.264 $0.241 -9% $0.263
PADD IV $0.267 $0.180 $0.134 $0.202 $0.116 $0.259 $0.172 $0.161 $0.142 $0.201 $0.141 -30% $0.174 $0.147 -15% $0.290
PADD V ex. CA $0.272 $0.253 $0.199 $0.264 $0.176 $0.263 $0.230 $0.226 $0.203 $0.251 $0.202 -20% $0.227 $0.208 -8% $0.248
California $0.405 $0.376 $0.352 $0.348 $0.324 $0.360 $0.374 $0.312 $0.351 $0.349 $0.350 0% $0.329 $0.355 8% $0.327
* Barclays Capital equity research includes oil price assumptions that are used for the purpose of forecasting company earnings and cash flows, for valuing equity and equity
derivative instruments, and for providing equity research recommendations and associated equity investment advice. These assumptions may differ from the oil price forecast of
Barclays Capital Commodity Research.
*
Source: Company data, Platts Oilgram Price Report, and Barclays Capital
7 April 2011 10
Figure 5: Price Target Changes

Price as of 12-Month Price Target @ $90/bl Long Run Oil (flat real 2014)
04/06/11 Old New % Change vs. share price Assumption for Base Case Fair Value Assessment
Integrated Oils
CVX $108.66 $115 $130 13% 20% Implied target normalized ROMC% of 7.3%, or an equity risk premium of 2.8%
COP $80.43 $82 $88 7% 9% Implied near term target normalized ROMC% of 7.7%, or an equity risk premium of 3.2% based on a long
term nominal oil price deck of $100 Brent, plus $7/share for its long cycle discovered known resource
XOM $85.18 $90 $95 6% 12% b
Implied near term target normalized ROMC% of 7.0%, or an equity risk premium of 2.5%
HES $84.81 $95 $105 11% 24% Implied near term target normalized ROMC% of 8.0%, or an equity risk premium of 3.5% based on a long
term nominal oil price deck of $100/b Brent, plus $10/share for its exploration potential and long cycle
discovered known resource base
HSE C$29.19 $27 $30 11% 3% 10% discount to our estimate NAV of C$33/share based on $100 Brent
IMO C$51.08 $54 $60 11% 17% 15% premium to our estimate NAV of C$52/share based on $100 Brent
MRO $52.90 $50 $55 10% 4% We assume the standalone E&P will trade at 5.8x EV/2012 EBIDA vs.the large cap E&P companies avg
multiple of 6.5x and the standalone R&M at 6.0x EV/2012 EBITDA compared to avg (FTO, TSO, VLO) of
5.2x
MUR $75.46 $78 $85 9% 13% Implied target normalized ROMC% of 8.0%, or an equity risk premium of 3.5%, based on a long term
nominal oil price deck of $100/b Brent, plus $7/share for its long cycle discovered hidden reserves and
exploration potential
PBR $40.48 $41 $49 20% 21% 5% premium to our estimate NAV of $47/ADS based on $100 Brent
PBRA $35.58 $40 $48 20% 35% $1/ADS discount to PBR PT to reflect the lesser share liquidity and the lack of voting right
SU.TO (C$) C$42.76 C$42 C$50 19% 17% 10% premium to our estimate NAV of C$46/share based on $100 oil
Average 12% 16%
ALJ $14.42 $10 $10 0% (31)% $480 per daily barrel of complexity (previously target $450 per daily barrel of complexity)
DK $13.59 $11 $12 9% (12)% $650 per daily barrel of complexity (previously target $600 per daily barrel of complexity)
FTO $30.25 $28 $28 0% (7)% $1,450 per daily barrel of complexity (previously target $1400 per daily barrel of complexity)
SUN $45.67 $58 $58 0% 27% Mid-point of our sum-of-the parts estimate of $49-$64/share. We previous estimate the sum of the parts
TSO $27.39 $27 $29 7% 6% $800 per daily barrel of complexity (previously target $775 per daily barrel of complexity)
VLO $29.82 $30 $30 0% 1% $560 per daily barrel of complexity (previously target $680 per daily barrel of complexity)
Average 3% (3)%
Note: ROMC (return on market capitalization) = (net income excluding special items + after-tax interest expense)/ (total equity market capitalization + total debt)
Our equity risk premium is based off of our assumption on the long term 10 year treasury yield of 7.0%, or 4.5% after-tax
We also assume a fair group average equity risk premium at 3.2% for the integrated oil stocks, or 15% discount to the market's historical average risk premium.
Source: Barclays Capital estimates
7 April 2011 11
Figure 6: 1Q11 Operating Earnings Breakout
1Q11 Operating Earnings Breakout, $mm

Upstream Downstream Chemicals Other Total
Integrated Oil US Int'l US Int'l
CVX 1,285 4,585 46 293 177 (300) 6,084
COP 894 1,628 382 27 127 (176) 2,883
XOM 1,420 7,527 445 585 1,329 (600) 10,707
HES 212 483 85 (103) 678
HSE C$331 C$65 C$34 (C$10) C$419
IMO C$597 C$307 C$20 (C$41) C$883
MRO 31 582 438 (31) 1,020
MUR 39 138 35 (7) (25) 179
PBR R$11,168 R$551 R$335 R$12,054
PBRA R$11,168 R$551 R$335 R$12,054
SU.TO C$1,062 C$589 (C$168) C$1,484
ALJ 34 (17) 17
DK 37 (7) 30.3
FTO 137 (27) 110
SUN (22) 10 (12) (24)
TSO 183 (85) 98
VLO 307 (134) 174
Operating Earnings Breakout, %

Upstream Downstream Chemicals Other Total
Integrated Oil US Int'l US Int'l
CVX 21% 75% 1% 5% 3% -5% 100%
COP 31% 56% 13% 1% 4% -6% 100%
XOM 13% 70% 4% 5% 12% -6% 100%
HES 31% 71% 13% 0% 0% -15% 100%
HSE 0% 79% 15% 8% 0% -2% 100%
IMO 0% 68% 0% 35% 2% -5% 100%
MRO 3% 57% 43% 0% 0% -3% 100%
MUR 22% 77% 19% -4% 0% -14% 100%
PBR 0% 93% 0% 5% 0% 3% 100%
PBRA 0% 93% 0% 5% 0% 3% 100%
SU.TO 0% 72% 0% 40% 0% -11% 100%
Average 11% 74% 10% 9% 2% -6% 100%
Independent Refiners (operating loss)

ALJ 0% 0% 198% 0% 0% -98% 100%
DK 0% 0% 123% 0% 0% -23% 100%
FTO 0% 0% 125% 0% 0% -25% 100%
SUN 0% 0% 92% 0% -43% 50% 100%
TSO 0% 0% 186% 0% 0% -86% 100%
VLO 0% 0% 177% 0% 0% -77% 100%
Average 0% 0% 150% 0% -7% -43% 100%
Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital estimates
7 April 2011 12
Figure 7: Upstream Earnings Comparison

1Q11E 4Q10A V% 1Q10A V%
NI NI
Production $/bl Rank Production $/bl Rank NI $/bl NI ($ mms) Production $/b Rank NI $/b
($ mms) ($ mms)
COP $2,522 1,738 $16.1 8 $1,854 1,729 $11.7 8 36% 38% $1,915 1,828 $11.64 9 32% 39%
CVX $5,869 2,756 $23.7 3 $4,847 2,786 $18.9 3 21% 25% $4,724 2,783 $18.86 3 24% 25%
HES $695 406 $19.0 6 $420 420 $10.9 9 66% 75% $493 424 $12.95 8 41% 47%
HSE $331 309 $11.9 9 $322 280 $12.5 5 3% -5% $351 296 $13.18 7 -6% -10%
IMO $589 250 $26.2 2 $526 253 $22.6 1 12% 16% $444 240 $20.60 2 33% 27%
MRO $613 407 $16.8 7 $505 456 $12.0 6 21% 39% $485 387 $13.94 6 26% 20%
MUR $177 185 $10.6 10 $154 178 $9.4 10 15% 13% $247 196 $13.97 5 -28% -24%
PBR/PBRA R$11,168 2,616 $47.4 1 R$7,910 2,628 $19.3 2 41% 146% R$7,759 2,547 $33.85 1 44% 40%
SU C$1,062 575 $20.5 4 C$673 611 $11.8 7 58% 73% C$387 559 $7.69 10 175% 167%
XOM $8,947 4,986 $19.9 5 $7,480 4,968 $16.4 4 20% 22% $5,814 4,362 $14.81 4 54% 35%
Source: Company Data and Barclays Capital.
Figure 8: Downstream Earnings Comparison

U.S. Integrateds Downstream Earnings Comparison
1Q11E 4Q10A V% 1Q10A V%
NI NI NI
Throughput $/bl Rank Throughput $/bl Rank NI $/bl Throughput $/bl Rank NI $/bl
($ mms) ($ mms) ($ mms)
American Integrateds**
COP $410 2,265 $2.0 8 $207 2,235 $1.0 9 98% 100% $21 2,226 $0.10 6 1852% 1818%
CVX $338 1,870 $2.0 9 $144 1,916 $0.8 10 135% 147% $188 1,881 $1.11 4 80% 81%
HES $85 237 $4.0 4 $28 252 $1.2 8 202% 229% $86 250 $3.84 2 -1% 4%
HSE C$98 196 $5.7 3 C$66 179 $4.0 4 48% 42% (C$22) 210 ($1.11) 8 549% 609%
IMO C$307 445 $7.8 2 C$266 467 $6.1 2 16% 28% C$39 439 $0.95 5 688% 723%
MRO $438 1,335 $3.6 5 $213 1,400 $1.7 7 105% 120% ($237) 1,100 ($2.39) 10 285% 252%
MUR $27 200 $1.5 10 $44 279 $1.7 6 -39% -13% ($30) 170 ($1.95) 9 191% 178%
PBR/PBRA R$551 1,806 $2.0 7 R$1,415 1,864 $4.9 3 -61% -58% R$1,116 1,748 $3.93 1 -51% -48%
SU C$589 474 $14.0 1 C$362 485 $8.0 1 63% 75% C$139 473 $3.14 3 324% 348%
XOM $1,030 5,215 $2.2 6 $1,150 5,298 $2.4 5 -10% -7% $37 5,156 $0.08 7 2684% 2652%
** Downstream earnings for the Integrateds includes refining and marketing operations, CVX estimate excludes our estimated Chemicals earnings
* Denotes that 4Q10 values are BarCap estimates
Source: Company Data and Barclays Capital.
U.S. Refiners: Refining Earnings Comparison

1Q11E 4Q10A V% 1Q10A V%
NI NI
Throughput $/bl Rank Throughput $/bl Rank NI $/bl NI ($ mms) Throughput $/bl Rank NI $/bl
($ mms) ($ mms)
Independent Refiners**
Alon USA (ALJ)* $37 136 $3.0 4 ($7) 139 ($0.5) 6 627% 650% ($36) 61 ($6.60) 6 201% 145%
Delek (DK)* $38 61 $7.0 2 ($1) 55 ($0.1) 5 5385% 5039% ($6) 54 ($1.32) 3 686% 627%
Frontier Oil (FTO) $137 189 $8.1 1 $71 193 $4.0 1 94% 103% ($27) 172 ($1.73) 4 612% 567%
Sunoco (SUN) ($55) 557 ($1.1) 6 ($8) 634 ($0.1) 4 -587% -700% ($42) 591 ($0.80) 2 -29% -37%
Tesoro (TSO) $180 560 $3.6 3 $56 505 $1.2 2 220% 195% ($92) 471 ($2.18) 5 294% 263%
Valero (VLO) $269 2,109 $1.4 5 $210 2,190 $1.0 3 28% 36% ($34) 2,095 ($0.18) 1 881% 876%
Refiners Sub-Total** $606 3,612 $1.9 $322 3,716 $0.9 88% 98% ($239) 3,444 ($0.77) 354% 342%
** Downstream earnings for Refiners only includes refining operations and not retail.
Source: Company reports and Barclays Capital.
7 April 2011 13
Figure 9: Global Assumptions
2001-2010
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Average
Petroleum Prices:
WTI Average Spot Price ($/b) $99.68 $61.60 $79.08 $105.75 $105.25 $86.50 $97.50 $97.50 $56.15
Brent Average Spot Price ($/b) $96.39 $61.53 $79.43 $112.00 $110.00 $90.00 $100.00 $100.00 $54.24
U.S. Natural Gas Spot Price ($/Mcf) 8.54 3.87 4.43 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.59 5.10 $5.73
Cash Refining Margins($/b):

Merchant Refining Centers
U.S. Gulf Coast LLS 6-3-2-1 $2.45 $2.49 $2.00 $2.27 $2.52 $2.52 $2.27 $2.02 $3.52
U.S. Gulf WTI 3-2-1 $11.66 $8.78 $10.16 $15.10 $13.07 $11.77 $10.02 $10.02 $9.37
N.W. Europe (Simple) $1.30 $0.49 $0.90 -$0.18 $0.32 $0.32 $0.07 -$0.18 $1.12
N.W. Europe (Medium) $4.64 $0.53 $2.25 $2.01 $2.29 $2.44 $1.95 $1.70 $1.98
Singapore (Simple) $2.17 -$1.01 $0.47 $0.43 $0.44 $0.44 $0.19 -$0.06 $0.22
Singapore (Medium) $6.64 $3.44 $4.93 $7.38 $6.63 $5.97 $6.10 $6.10 $4.91
Niche Refining Markets
U.S. East Coast $5.63 $3.02 $4.02 $3.96 $4.21 $4.21 $3.96 $3.71 $3.82
U.S. Mid-Continent $9.29 $6.27 $7.00 $13.05 $12.43 $11.49 $10.49 $10.24 $8.10
U.S. Rocky Mountain $15.82 $8.29 $11.92 $16.10 $14.85 $14.19 $13.84 $13.79 NA
U.S. Midwest $16.64 $10.97 $12.73 $18.31 $15.95 $14.61 $14.46 $14.58 $12.64
U.S. West Coast $11.56 $10.40 $7.34 $9.56 $9.55 $10.89 $12.02 $12.02 $12.09
U.S. Pacific NW $13.97 $9.58 $11.76 $11.81 $11.55 $11.89 $12.02 $12.02 NA
Japan $5.00 $1.67 $3.75 $4.21 $3.46 $2.80 $2.93 $2.93 NA
Integrated Marketing Margins($/gallon):

PADD I $0.482 $0.327 $0.337 $0.315 $0.319 $0.367 $0.343 $0.344 $0.330
PADD II $0.330 $0.269 $0.285 $0.285 $0.305 $0.356 $0.334 $0.333 $0.247
PADD III $0.381 $0.257 $0.254 $0.233 $0.241 $0.292 $0.273 $0.273 $0.263
PADD IV $0.357 $0.226 $0.267 $0.141 $0.147 $0.197 $0.176 $0.176 $0.290
PADD V (excluding California) $0.312 $0.228 $0.272 $0.202 $0.208 $0.256 $0.232 $0.232 $0.248
California $0.406 $0.365 $0.405 $0.350 $0.355 $0.399 $0.373 $0.373 $0.327
Crude Oil Differentials ($/b)

WTI/Brent $3.29 $0.07 ($0.35) ($6.25) ($4.75) ($3.50) ($2.50) ($2.50) $1.91
WTI/LLS ($2.95) ($2.76) ($3.64) ($8.74) ($7.25) ($6.00) ($5.00) ($5.00) ($1.42)
WTI/Maya $15.45 $5.07 $8.81 $8.01 $8.97 $8.91 $10.66 $11.16 $10.54
WTI/WCS NA $9.60 $14.87 $17.58 $14.67 $13.61 $15.86 $16.86 NA
WTI/WTS $3.55 $1.32 $1.88 $2.81 $2.61 $2.16 $2.68 $2.68 $3.28
Source: Barclays Capital, Platts, Bloomberg
7 April 2011 14
Figure 10: Comparative Valuations
Price P/E EV/EBITDA EV/EBIDA ROMC% Dividend

Rating 4/6/11 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E Yield
American Integrateds 1-Positive

Chevron (CVX) 1 - OW $108.66 8.4 x 8.7 x 3.7 x 3.9 x 5.4 x 5.5 x 11.4% 10.9% 2.7%
ConocoPhillips (COP) 2 - EW $80.43 9.6 x 9.2 x 4.1 x 3.9 x 6.4 x 6.1 x 8.7% 9.2% 3.3%
Exxon Mobil (XOM) 2 - EW $85.18 10.1 x 9.7 x 5.3 x 5.2 x 7.4 x 7.1 x 9.5% 9.6% 2.1%
Hess (HES) 1 - OW $84.81 9.7 x 9.4 x 4.3 x 4.2 x 5.9 x 5.6 x 9.5% 9.8% 0.5%
Husky Energy (HSE-TSE) 2 - EW C$29.19 14.4 x 16.8 x 6.1 x 6.5 x 7.2 x 7.7 x 6.5% 5.7% 4.1%
Imperial Oil (IMO-TSE) 1 - OW C$51.08 11.7 x 13.2 x 7.8 x 9.0 x 9.9 x 11.2 x 9.4% 7.4% 0.9%
Marathon Oil (MRO) 2 - EW $52.90 9.5 x 10.6 x 3.9 x 4.2 x 5.6 x 5.9 x 9.0% 8.1% 1.9%
Murphy Oil (MUR) 1 - OW $75.46 10.3 x 9.6 x 4.3 x 4.0 x 5.8 x 5.3 x 9.2% 9.9% 1.5%
Petrobras (PBR-ADR) 2 - EW $40.48 9.1 x 9.2 x 5.9 x 6.1 x 8.2 x 8.4 x 10.6% 9.7% 3.3%
Petrobras (PBRA-ADR) 1 - OW $35.58 8.0 x 8.1 x 5.3 x 5.5 x 7.4 x 7.6 x 10.2% 9.3% 3.8%
Suncor Energy (SU.TO) 2 - EW C$42.76 12.6 x 14.0 x 6.6 x 7.0 x 8.7 x 9.1 x 7.2% 6.6% 0.9%
American Median 9.7 x 9.6 x 5.3 x 5.2 x 7.2 x 7.1 x 9.4% 9.3% 2.1%
Euro Integrateds* 2-Neutral

BP (BP) 3 - UW $46.86 7.6 x 6.6 x 3.9 x 3.5 x 6.2 x 5.1 x 11.5% 12.9% 3.6%
Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSA) 1 - OW $74.18 9.6 x 8.4 x 4.1 x 3.5 x 6.2 x 5.4 x 8.8% 10.3% 4.5%
Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSB) 1 - OW $74.48 9.6 x 8.4 x 4.1 x 3.5 x 6.2 x 5.4 x 8.8% 10.3% 4.5%
Total (TOT) 2 - EW $61.69 8.6 x 7.5 x 3.5 x 3.1 x 5.2 x 4.7 x 9.5% 11.0% 5.3%
European Median 9.1 x 7.9 x 4.0 x 3.5 x 6.2 x 5.2 x 9.2% 10.6% 4.5%
Global integrated Median 9.6 x 9.2 x 4.3 x 4.2 x 6.2 x 5.9 x 9.4% 9.7% 3.3%
Independent Refiners 3-Negative

Alon USA (ALJ) 3 - UW $14.42 72.1 x 19.2 x 8.5 x 6.4 x 10.6 x 8.3 x 3.9% 5.9% 1.1%
Delek USA (DK) 2 - EW $13.59 13.6 x 13.6 x 5.5 x 5.4 x 7.2 x 7.0 x 6.8% 7.4% 1.1%
Frontier Oil (FTO) 2 - EW $30.25 13.8 x 17.8 x 5.3 x 6.0 x 7.6 x 8.4 x 7.0% 5.6% 0.0%
Sunoco (SUN) 1 - OW $45.67 114.2 x 20.8 x 8.8 x 6.3 x 10.1 x 7.4 x 1.6% 4.4% 1.3%
Tesoro (TSO) 2 - EW $27.39 12.5 x 12.2 x 4.4 x 4.5 x 5.7 x 5.7 x 7.4% 7.6% 0.0%
Valero (VLO) 2 - EW $29.82 11.5 x 9.5 x 5.6 x 4.9 x 7.2 x 6.5 x 7.1% 8.4% 0.7%
American Refiners Median 13.7 x 15.7 x 5.5 x 5.7 x 7.4 x 7.2 x 6.9% 6.6% 0.9%
Macro Assumptions US Integrateds/Ref European Integrateds

Brent Average Spot Price ($/bl) $112.00 $110.00 $90.00 $100.00
WTI Average Spot Price ($/b) $105.75 $105.25 $91.00 $101.00
U.S. Natural Gas Spot Price ($/Mcf) $4.21 $4.21 $4.00 $4.50
Refining Margins
U.S. Gulf Coast 3-2-1 $15.10 $13.07
U.S. East Coast $3.96 $4.21
U.S. Mid-Continent $13.05 $12.43
U.S. West Coast $9.56 $9.55 $8.86 $8.60
NW Europe (Medium) $2.01 $2.29 $1.51 $1.55
Singapore (Medium) $7.38 $6.63 $1.50 $1.70
Crude Differentials
WTI/Maya $8.01 $8.97
WTI/Canadian Heavy $17.58 $14.67
WTI/WTS $2.81 $2.61
WTI/Brent -$6.25 -$4.75
WTI/LLS -$8.74 -$7.25
Source: Barclays Capital estimates, FactSet
*Please see the end of this report for valuation methodologies.

Stock Rating: 1-OW: 1-Overweight 2-EW: 2-Equal Weight 3-UW: 3-Underweight RS: RS-Rating Suspended
7 April 2011 15
Figure 11: EV/Capacity

Cycle Trough Cycle Peak $1,600/daily bls of comple
$/daily barrel of complexity Now 2002 1999 2007 2001 '99 & '02 Avg 2002
Alon USA** $581 $1,704 $455 $531
Delek USA $722 $1,396 $478 $531
Frontier Oil $1,500 $325 $146 $2,651 $576 $401 $520
Holly* $864 $338 $267 $2,981 $553 $527 $540
HOC/FTO $1,105
Sunoco ($58) $282 $193 $1,262 $272 $410 $451
Tesoro $771 $460 $197 $1,519 $604 $557 $736
Valero $546 $332 $227 $1,221 $409 $484 $531
Western* $1,764 $2,757 $455 $531
Median $746 $332 $197 $1,612 $483 $455 $531
Est Greenfield Replacement Cost $1,600 $1,000 $833 $2,250 $1,000
% 47% 33% 24% 72% 48%
* Barclays Capital does not cover Western Refining and Holly.

**Inventory at ALJ's BSR and KSR have been liquidated under an agreement with J. Aron and we assume this account for ~80% of the company's inventory at 3Q1
Figure 12: Refiner Enterprise Value ($mm, except per share price)
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) = a * b - c - d - e - f - g
(35 days of supply)
Mark to Mkt
4/6/11 Latest Qtr Working Long Term Inventory Oil Price Pension Total WC + LT Debt WC +
Price Share Count Capital Debt > Book on Inventory Liab > Asset EV Excess Inventory Excess Inventory
Alon USA** $14.42 54.2 $1 ($905) $15 $35 ($30) $1,665 ($889) $16
Delek USA $13.59 57.9 $97 ($472) $24 $25 $0 $1,113 ($351) $121
Frontier Oil $30.25 106.3 $543 ($348) $224 $84 ($45) $2,758 $419 $767
Holly* $62.62 53.6 $321 ($328) $185 $133 ($30) $3,076 $178 $506
HOC/FTO $62.62 104.8 $865 ($676) $408 $217 ($74) $5,820 $597 $1,273
Sunoco $45.67 120.3 $407 ($945) $1,688 $370 ($387) $4,360 $1,150 $2,095
Tesoro $27.39 142.8 $432 ($1,843) $910 $303 ($366) $4,476 ($501) $1,342
Valero $29.82 569.0 $4,734 ($7,515) $3,965 $1,359 ($690) $15,115 $1,184 $8,699
Western* $18.71 88.2 $273 ($1,007) $113 $125 ($7) $2,154 ($621) $386
(o) = h - i - j - k - l - m - n (r) = o*1000/(p * q) (s) = (o + n)*1000/(p * q)
(h) (i) (j) (k) (l) (m) (n) (o) (p) (q) (r) (s)
5.5 6 5 18.181818 6 6.5
($ mms) (6.5x Oper loss) ($ mms) (000 b/d) Implied $/Daily bls
Total (5.5x EBITDA) (6.0x EBITDA)(5.0x EBITDA) (LP+ GP) (6.0x EBITDA) Corp Implied Throughput Implied $/Daily of Complexity w/o
EV Retail/Ethanol Wholesale Chemicals Pipeline Coke Unallocated Refining Capacity Complexity bls of Compexity Corp Unalloc. Adj
Alon USA** $1,665 $188 $80 ($16) $1,414 317 7.7 $581 $574
Delek USA $1,113 $144 $163 ($60) $866 131 9.2 $722 $671
Frontier Oil $2,758 ($327) $3,084 187 11.0 $1,500 $1,341
Holly* $3,076 $675 ($467) $2,868 256 13.0 $864 $724
HOC/FTO $5,820 $675 ($794) $5,939 443 12.1 $1,105 $958
Sunoco $4,360 $1,191 $412 $1,979 $1,782 ($744) ($259) 505 8.9 ($58) ($224)
Tesoro $4,476 $405 $674 ($1,541) $4,937 665 9.6 $771 $530
Valero $15,115 $2,845 ($3,868) $16,138 2444 12.1 $546 $415
Western* $2,154 $146 $155 ($332) $2,185 151 8.2 $1,764 $1,496
Median $746 $623
* Barclays Capital does not cover Western Refining and Holly.
**Inventory at ALJ's BSR and KSR have been liquidated under an agreement with J. Aron and we assume this account for ~80% of the company's inventory at 3Q10.
7 April 2011 16
Other Recent Reports

PC Oil Roadmap - March 2011: Production Target Look Back, April 4, 2011
U.S. Independent Refiners: WTI/Brent Narrow + Negative Gasoline Demand = Headwind

for Refiners, March 31, 2011
Energy & Power: PC- Weekly Valuation and Price Performance, March 28, 2011
Sunoco, Inc.: A Step Closer To Unlocking Value; Raise PT, March 25, 2011
Quarterly Cheat Sheet: 4Q10 Review, March 25, 2011
Energy: UK Increases Oil & Gas Tax, March 24, 2011
ConocoPhillips: Solid Strategy, But Already Priced In, March 24, 2011
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.: Bi-Weekly Brazilian Drilling Tracker, March 23, 2011
Delek US Holdings Inc.: Positive on Lion Majority Ownership, March 22, 2011
Murphy Oil: Drilling Program Update - March 2011, March 22, 2011
E&P, Integrated Oil And Refiners: Catalyst Watch & Weekly Highlights, March 22, 2011
Energy & Power: PC Weekly Valuation and Price Performance, March 21, 2011
Delek US Holdings Inc.: Acquisition of 53.7% Interest in Lion Oil, March 21, 2011
ConocoPhillips: Analyst Day Preview, March 21, 2011
WTI/Brent Spread May Significantly Narrow Through Summer, March 18, 2011
Petrobras (Pbr/Pbr.A): Petrobras Restates 4Q10 EPS to US GAAP, March 18, 2011
U.S. Independent Refiners: Japan Earthquake - New Analysis, March 17, 2011
Chevron Corporation: Non-Event for Stock- No Material New Info, March 15, 2011
U.S. Independent Refiners: Japan Earthquake-Revising Analysis, March 15, 2011
E&P, Integrated Oil And Refiners: Catalyst Watch & Weekly Highlights, March 15, 2011
Energy: Integrateds' Downstream Exposure, March 14, 2011
U.S. Independent Refiners: Japan Earthquake - Global Refining Impacts, March 14, 2011
Alon USA Energy: Location Benefit Already Priced In - No Real Upside from Here, March
14, 2011
Valero Energy: Announced Pembroke Refinery Purchase, March 14, 2011
WTI/Brent Spread - Why It May Significantly Narrow Through The Summer And The
Implication On Refiners, March 11, 2011
Delek US Holdings Inc.: Strong 1Q11 Ahead, but Seems Priced In, March 11, 2011
Husky Energy, Inc.: Preferred Share Offering Announced - Fine Tuning Estimates, March
11, 2011
7 April 2011 17
First Glance Alon USA (ALJ) 4Q10 Results, March 10, 2011
Conference Call: WTI/Brent Spread - Why It May Significantly Narrow Through the
Summer and the Implication on Refiners, March 10, 2011
~First Glance Delek (DK) 4Q10 Earnings~, March 10, 2011
Unsubstantiated Bloomberg Article on VLO's Pembroke Purchase, March 10, 2011
Husky Energy, Inc.: 2010 Organic RRR 140%, March 10, 2011
Chevron Corporation: Analyst Day Preview, March 10, 2011
Exxon Mobil Corp.: As Expected - A Non-Event for the Stock, March 9, 2011
Exxon Mobil Corp.: Analyst Day Preview, March 7, 2011
Energy: PC- Weekly Valuation and Price Performance, March 7, 2011
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.: Bi-Weekly Brazilian Drilling Tracker, March 4, 2011
Americas Integrated Oil: UPDATE: Integrateds' Production Exposure, March 3, 2011
Valero Energy: VLO 1Q11 Interim Update, March 3, 2011
U.S. Independent Refiners: December Gasoline Demand Revised Down 2.4%, March 2,
2011
Americas Integrated Oil: Reiterate 1-OW Rating on PBR.A, March 2, 2011
Sunoco, Inc.: SUN Completes Toledo Sale, March 1, 2011
Americas Integrated Oil: Financial Exporting Leverage in the Middle East and North
Africa, March 1, 2011
Imperial Oil Ltd.: EPS Revisions, February 28, 2011
Energy & Power: PC- Weekly Valuation and Price Performance, February 28, 2011
Frontier Oil: Upgrade to 2-EW & 4Q10 Review, February 28, 2011
First Glance Petrobras (PBR/PBR.A) 4Q10 Result, February 27, 2011
Americas Integrated Oil: Petrobras 4Q10: Expect $0.80, FC $0.81, February 25, 2011
First Glance of Frontier (FTO) 4Q10 Result, February 24, 2011
Energy: DC Political Landscape & Gulf of Mexico Drilling Outlook Call Transcript,
February 23, 2011
E&P, Integrated Oil And Refiners: Catalyst Watch & Weekly Highlights, February 23, 2011
Frontier Oil: 4Q10: Expect $0.11/share, FC $0.10/share, February 23, 2011
Americas Integrated Oil: Exposure in Middle East and North Africa, February 22, 2011
Frontier Oil: FTO & HOC Merger - Stronger Enterprise, February 22, 2011
FTO and HOC Merger Announcement, February 22, 2011
Energy: EPS and Macro Changes, February 18, 2011
7 April 2011 18
Americas Integrated Oil: WTI-Linked Exposure, February 18, 2011
DC Political Landscape Change & GoM Drilling Outlook - When Will Deepwater Drilling
Likely Be Resumed?, February 16, 2011
Husky Energy, Inc.: Poor 4Q10 Result-No Strong Reason to Buy, February 16, 2011
Exxon Mobil Corp.: Announced 2010 RRR, February 15, 2011
First Glance Husky (HSE) 4Q10 Earnings, February 15, 2011
ConocoPhillips: 2011 Capital Budget, Increase in Share Buybacks and Higher Dividends,
February 11, 2011
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.: Bi-Weekly Brazilian Drilling Tracker, February 11, 2011
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.: Time to Revisit, Upgrade to 1-OW, February 10, 2011
Imperial Oil Ltd.: Raising EPS Estimate and Price Target, February 9, 2011
Does an arbitrage opportunity exist at the current WTI/LLS spread?, February 7, 2011
Sunoco, Inc.: Mixed Bag, But Asset Value > Share Price, February 4, 2011
Tesoro Corporation: 4Q In Line, But Good CA Margin Capture, February 4, 2011
Energy & Power: Northern Lights: Look to Canada for Oil Leverage, February 4, 2011
Marathon Oil Corp.: Good R&M, Upstream Helped By Lower Tax, February 3, 2011
Suncor Energy: Downstream & Corp Beat But High Oil Sands Cost, February 2, 2011
First Glance of Tesoro (TSO) 4Q10 Result, February 2, 2011
First Glance of Marathon (MRO) 4Q10 Results, February 2, 2011
~First Glance Suncor (SU) 4Q10 Earnings~, February 2, 2011
Sunoco, Inc.: 4Q10: Expect $0.08/shs; FC: $0.09/shs, February 1, 2011
Exxon Mobil Corp.: Strong 4Q; Not Much XTO Improvement, February 1, 2011
Tesoro Corporation: 4Q10:Expect Breakeven, Consensus $(0.06), February 1, 2011
First Glance of Imperial Oil (IMO) 4Q10 Results, January 31, 2010
Americas Integrated Oil: Suez Canal Impact on Oil Market, January 31, 2010
7 April 2011 19
~ First Glance of ExxonMobil (XOM) 4Q10 Results ~, January 31, 2010
Sunoco, Inc.: SunCoke Separation to Move Forward, January 31, 2010
Energy & Power: PC- Weekly Valuation and Price Performance, January 31, 2010
European Integrated Oil: Iraq: Pump up the volume, January 31, 2010
Chevron Corporation: Despite Poor Reserve Replacement, We Are Buyers on Weakness,

January 31, 2010
Suncor Energy: 4Q10 Preview: Expect C$0.58; FC C$0.54, January 31, 2010
U.S. Independent Refiners: Nov Gasoline Demand Revised Up 0.6%, January 28, 2010
First Glance Chevron (CVX) 4Q10 Result, January 28, 2010
Murphy Oil: Despite Disappointing Guidance, Stock Seems Oversold, January 28, 2010
Hess Corp.: Result Hurt by Several One-Off Items, January 27, 2010
ConocoPhillips: 4Q10 - Basically In-line, With Not Much Excitement, January 27, 2010
Valero Energy: In-Line Result, Nothing Real Surprising, January 27, 2010
Imperial Oil Ltd.: 4Q10 Preview: Expect C$0.60; FC C$0.64, January 27, 2010
Exxon Mobil Corp.: 4Q10 Preview: Expect $1.59; FC $1.60, January 27, 2010
~First Glance of Murphy (MUR) 4Q10 Result~, January 26, 2010
~First Glance of ConocoPhillips (COP) 4Q10 Results~, January 26, 2010
First Glance of Valero (VLO) 4Q10 Result, January 26, 2010
First Glance of Hess (HES) 4Q10 Results -, January 26, 2010
Chevron Corporation: 4Q10 Preview: Expect $2.50 EPS; FC $2.40, January 26, 2010
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.: Bi-Weekly Brazilian Drilling Tracker, January 25, 2010
E&P, Integrated Oil And Refiners: Catalyst Watch & Weekly Highlights, January 25, 2010
ConocoPhillips: 4Q10: Expect $1.32/shs, Cons $1.30/shs, January 25, 2010
Valero Energy: 4Q10: Expect $0.49/shs, FC $0.34/shs, January 24, 2010
Hess Corp.: 4Q10: Expect $1.10/sh, FC $1.25/sh, January 24, 2010
Energy Reporting Calendar: 4Q10 Earnings Schedule, January 21, 2010
Sunoco, Inc.: Acquires Harold Keene Coal for $40 mm, January 18, 2010
Americas Integrated Oil: 2010 Reserve Replacement 170%, January 18, 2010
Valero Energy: Refining 101 Call Transcript, January 18, 2010
7 April 2011 20
Marathon Oil Corp.: Raise Price Target to $45, January 14, 2010
Marathon Oil Corp.: Not Interested In A Logistics MLP, January 14, 2010
Marathon Oil Corp.: Downstream Spinoff Announcement, January 13, 2010
ConocoPhillips: EPS Revision, January 12, 2010
Chevron Corporation: 4Q10 Interim Update, January 12, 2010
Conference Call: Refining Technical Teach-in with Valero - Tuesday, January 11, 2011 -
11:00 AM EST, January 11, 2010
Valero Teach In Conference Call- Slides, January 10, 2010
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.: Bi-Weekly Brazilian Drilling Tracker, January 10, 2010
4Q10 Earnings Surprise And Quarterly Preview: Not the Catalyst Investors Have Hoped
For, January 10, 2010
Frontier Oil: Downgrade to 3-UW, January 10, 2010
Exxon Mobil Corp.: Downgrade to 2-EW, January 10, 2010
Valero Energy: Downgrade to 2-EW, January 10, 2010
Conference Call: Refining Technical Teach-in with Valero - Tuesday, January 11, 2011 -
11:00 AM EST, January 7, 2010
Hess Corp.: 2011 Capital Budget - Slight Positive, January 7, 2010
Murphy Oil (MUR) Congo Drilling Results, January 6, 2010
Valero (VLO) Update, January 6, 2010
7 April 2011 21
PC Oil Roadmap – March 2011 Production Target Look Back

The following is from PC Oil Roadmap – March 2011 Production Target Look Back, dated
April 4, 2011. Please see the note for a more detailed analysis.
We reiterate our 1- Although many investors are eager to obtain production guidance from the companies, it is
Overweight/1-Positive ratings important to note that most companies’ records have been disappointing with significant
on HES and CVX and think their negative variances, particularly for their longer dated forecasts. In this report we show
stocks have not fully reflected which companies have historically reported the biggest deviations between expected and
the sharp improvement in their actual production as well each company’s production target revision pattern. In addition,
underlying capability. since we think the companies’ ability to meet their production guidance is closely linked
with their project execution capability, we think this report will help to identify the
companies that have shown the best improvement trend in their underlying operating
performance. From this standpoint, we think HES and CVX have demonstrated the most
improvement over the last couple years. We reiterate our 1-Overweight/1-Positive ratings
on these two companies and think their stocks have not fully reflected the sharp
improvement in their underlying capability.
Between 2002 and 2010, the US-based integrated oil companies have revised their guidance
down 6% on average. It should not come as a surprise that 2008 production estimates
showed the highest average downward revision (down 9%), which was partly driven by
negative PSC effects, increased asset sales and higher oil prices. Over the 2006-2010
period, the integrated oil companies tended to revise their estimates by larger factors than
during the 2002-2010 period, with the exception of Petrobras which showed a 1%
improvement in its revision trend. MUR, for example, showed a 9% average downward
revision in the nine year period but a 15% downward revision in the most recent five year
period.
We believe that the tendency for companies to revise down their production targets over
time suggests that most long-dated forecasts are unreliable. For example, XOM, MUR and
MRO showed an average revision of -10%, -9% and -9%, respectively. In contrast, HES
revised its forecast up 7% over the same period.
Figure 13: Average Production Target Revision

COP CVX HES HSE IMO MRO MUR PBR SU XOM Group Avg
2002 -- 0% -2% NA NA -3% 7% -- NA -- 0%
2003 0% -4% 2% NA NA -8% -5% -- NA -4% -3%
2004 -2% -- 5% NA NA -17% -4% -- NA -6% -5%
2005 -5% -7%² -5% NA NA 3% -6% -14% NA -9% -6%
2006 -8%¹ -16% 4% NA NA -5% -8% 0% NA -10% -6%
2007 1% -9% 8% NA NA -10% -24% -6% NA -12% -8%
2008 4% -13% 13% NA NA -16% -30% -5% NA -18% -9%
2009 -12% 1% 18% NA NA -- -17% -9% NA4 -10% -5%
2010 -15% -7% 23% NA NA -15% 5% -12% NA -8%³ -4%
9 Year Average -5% -7% 7% NA NA -9% -9% -8% NA -10% -6%
06-10 Average -6% -9% 13% NA NA -11% -15% -7% NA -12% -7%
Variance 19% 17% 29% NA NA 19% 37% 14% NA 14% 10%
Absolute Avg 6% 7% 9% NA NA 10% 12% 8% NA 10% 5%
(1) Acquisition of Burlington Resources which closed in March 2006. Burlington Resources production at the time was 477 mboe/d, or 26% of COP’s reported 2005
production.
(2) Acquisition of Unocal, which closed in August 2005. Unocal production at the time of the transaction was approximately 460 mboe/d, or 18% of CVX’s 2005
production.
(3) Acquisition of XTO which closed in June 2010. XTO production was 484 mboe/d, or 12% of XOM’s 2009 Production.
7 April 2011 22
(4) Acquisition of PetroCanada closed in August 2009. At the time of the transaction, PetroCanada’s production was 374 mboe/d, or 142% of Suncor’s 2008
production.
Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital
WTI/Brent Narrow + Negative Gasoline Demand = Headwind for

Refiners
The following is from WTI/Brent Narrow + Negative Gasoline Demand = Headwind for
Refiners, dated March 31, 2011. Please see the note for a more detailed analysis.
We think the WTI/Brent spread We think the WTI/Brent spread could continue to narrow sharply between now and
could continue to narrow September, reflecting new storage capacity at Cushing, the return of Enbridge 6A and 6B
sharply. pipeline to normal operation, higher refining operating rates as plants return from the peak
of the turnaround season, and higher barge activities shipping oil from Wood River to the
Gulf Coast as the weather warms up.
We recommend selling the We also believe that the current high oil price environment has begun to push U.S. gasoline
refiners while buying the high oil demand growth rate into negative territory. We think the negative development could cut
beta producers. short the refiners’ seasonal trade. Instead of peaking in May, we think the group may have
already peaked or is very close to the peak. We recommend selling the refiners while buying
the high oil beta producers.
We forecast a slow, U-shaped Finally, we are not convinced that the sector's strong performance of the last several
recovery over the next several months signals the beginning of a new golden age in refining and thus think there is a
years. limited upside for the sector here. To reach 85%+ in worldwide utilization (our estimate of
the one rate that will trigger a prolonged improvement in margin) we believe worldwide oil
demand will need to grow at 2.25%+ annually, substantially higher than its historical
average rate of 1.5%. However, we believe such a demand rate could potentially trigger a
sharp spike in oil prices, which in turn could serve as a brake to the global economy and the
corresponding oil demand growth rate. We forecast a slow, U-shaped recovery over the
next several years.
Four reasons why the spread could narrow substantially between April and
November
New storage capacity at Cushing: based on current construction backlog, we estimate
there is 2 million bls of new capacity starting up at Cushing in April. Between April and
December, we expect total new storage start up at close to 13 million bls or about 23%
of existing capacity. While this will not fundamentally solve the problem, it should
provide short-term alleviation to the problem.
Enbridge 6A and 6B: Enbridge 6B is currently down for repair and should be back up
within the next 5-10 days or so. In addition, Enbridge currently forecasts 6A should
return to normal capacity run rate in 2Q11 (as early as April). This is important because
6A and 6B carries the Canadian oil to eastern PADD II and eastern Canada such as
Ontario. As the operation returns to more of a normal state, additional oil will flow east
and less will be required to travel south to Cushing.
Normal seasonality: US refineries normally see peak turnaround activities in March.

This year is no different. As refineries return to operations from maintenance, more oil
will be absorbed and processed, thus lesser pressure to store oil at Cushing.
7 April 2011 23
Increased barge operations to ship oil from Wood River to Gulf Coast as the weather
warms up. The current spread is not needed for the arbitrage economics to work, in our
opinion.
7 April 2011 24
Sunoco, Inc. A Step Closer To Unlocking Value; Raise PT

The following is from Sunoco, Inc. A Step Closer To Unlocking Value; Raise PT, dated March
25, 2011. Please see the note for a more detailed analysis.
We reiterate our 1-Overweight (sector: 3-Negative) rating on SUN and raise our price target
to $58 from $51 per share. SUN filed the Form S-1 registration statement with the SEC on
3/23/11 for its proposed IPO of SunCoke Energy. The IPO is expected to be completed in
2011. We now assume the IPO will happen in 3Q11. Upon completion, SUN will continue to
own more than 80% of SunCoke outstanding common stock and intends to distribute the
balance of its SunCoke shares to SUN shareholders in a tax-free spinoff. We expect the
spinoff to commence after the six-month lock-up period, or by 1Q12.
Despite our cautious refining outlook, we remain bullish on SUN and believe that the coke
spin-off will help unlock value for its shares. We believe that the market will be pleased that
the separation process is now moving forward and think the renewed interest should begin
to breathe life into the stock.
Based on the new information in the S-1, we have fine-tuned our sum-of-the-parts analysis
and take the opportunity to raise our price target to $58/share, to the midpoint of our
estimate range of value, from our previous target of $51/share.
Figure 14: Sunoco Price Target Breakdown (in millions, except per share data)
2012 EBITDA ($ mms) Multiple Value ($ mms)

Coke $297 6.1 - 8.4 $1,618 - $2,292
Retail (use 2001-10 avg EBITDA) $238 6.0 - 7.0 $1,428 - $1,666
Chemical $82 4.0 - 4.5 $329 - $370
Logistic
MLP (9.9 mm unit, market value) $870
GP (estimate payout value at 5%-6% yield) $61 16.7 - 20.0 $1019 - $1220
Refining
Toledo -- sold to PBF $400
NE Refining $400 - $1,000
Corporate Unallocated (operating loss not EBITDA) ($114) 6.5 ($744)
Balance Sheet Adjustments, excluding SXL
Working Capital $7
Long Term Debt ($945)
Market value of Inventory > Book (after-tax) $1,688
Mark-to-Market Inventory > Qtrend (after-tax) $370
Pension Liab > Asset ($387)
Total Sunoco Inc Equity Value $6,053 - $7,808
# of share 120
Sunoco Inc Equity Value/Share $50 - $65
7 April 2011 25
UK Increases Oil & Gas Tax

The following is from UK Increases Oil & Gas Tax, dated March 24, 2011. Please see the
note for a more detailed analysis.
The UK budget contained a shock for the oil companies - namely a 12% increase in the
supplementary tax rate to be applied to North Sea oil and gas profits when the Brent price is
above $75/bl. The incremental revenue will be used to reduce fuel duty at UK pumps. This
marks the 3rd increase in tax for the oil and gas industry in the last decade. After excluding
the Oil & Gas industry from benefiting from the general decreases in the corporation tax in
1999, the UK government announced in April 2002 the introduction of a Supplementary
Charge of 10% on UK upstream profitability. This charge was in addition to the corporation
tax rate of 30%. Effective from January 2006, this charge increased from 10% to 20%,
resulting in a tax rate on upstream operations of 50% for all North Sea fields which received
development approval after March 1993. The effective tax rate on older fields, which are
subject to Petroleum Revenue Tax, in addition to corporation tax and the Supplementary
Charge, rose from 70% to 75%.
In his pre-budget speech the Chancellor indicated that the increase in the Supplementary
Charge was due to the windfall profitability that the industry was enjoying in the current oil
price environment. It is not clear exactly how the increase in supplementary rate will be
enforced, but it appears to apply to existing operations in an oil price environment above
$75/bl. If Brent prices fall below this level for a sustained period of time, the 12% increase in
the supplementary charge will be gradually reversed. The $1.8bn of incremental tax
revenues that the government plans to receive will be used to fund a reduction in fuel duties
paid by consumers at the pump by 1 pence per liter.
European Integrateds Biggest Potential Impact: BG Group
North American Large Cap E&P Biggest Potential Impact: NXY and TLM
American-based Integrateds Biggest Potential Impact: SU and COP.
We are a buyer of HES: We believe that the sell off of HES shares yesterday (3/23/11)
was overdone and in light of the inexpensive valuation, we are a buyer of the name. Year
to date, the shares are up only 6%, compared to the group average of a 16% gain and
the S&P up 3%. Additionally, HES has a number of drilling catalysts in the next couple
months, including its Northern Red Sea exploration well in the next 30 days, its Ghana
exploration well in late April/early May, Eagleford Initial drilling result on the 1Q11
conference call, deepwater Indonesia drilling to start in April and Paris basin drilling to
start by 3Q11.
7 April 2011 26
WTI-Linked Exposure
The following is from WTI-Linked Exposure, dated February 18, 2011. Please see the note
for a more detailed analysis.
In light of the current severe WTI dislocation to Brent and the rest of the crude complex, we
have been asked by many investors for the Integrated Oils and Refiners exposure to WTI-
linked crude pricing on production, reserves, and refining capacity. In the upstream, we
believe currently only the US lower 48 onshore (excluding California and Alaska) and
Alberta Canada crudes are priced off WTI, which we estimate at approximately 5.0-5.5
mmb/d (million b/d). In the downstream, the Mid-Continent, Rocky Mountain, Midwest,
Alberta, and Ontario regions have various degrees of exposure to WTI-like crude pricing. We
have calculated the exposure to WTI for both sectors and believe this exercise provides a
guideline for investors to determine the companies’ impact from the current crude
disconnect. Our findings are summarized below.
Integrateds Net Exposure to WTI Linked Pricing

Biggest Positive Exposure: MRO and IMO. For every $10/bl annual change in
WTI/Brent spread and assuming a correspondingly equal inverted impact on the Mid-
Continent/Rocky Mountain refining margins, we estimate MRO’s net annual EPS
sensitivity at $0.8, or 1.5% of its share price, and IMO at C$0.4, or 0.7% of its share
price.
Biggest Negative Exposure: HSE. We estimate the company’s net EPS sensitivity is
C$0.1, or 0.5% of its current share price.
Refiners Net Exposure to WTI Linked Pricing.

Biggest Positive Exposure: ALJ, DK, and WNR. For every $10/bl annual change in
WTI/Brent spread and assuming a correspondingly equal inverted impact on the Mid-
Continent/Rocky Mountain refining margins, we estimate ALJ’s annual EPS sensitivity
could be as high as at $2.6, or 23% of its share price, DK at $2.5, or 22% of its share
price, and WNR at $3.9, or 21% of its share price.
Least Positive Exposure: SUN, VLO and TSO. Upon completion of the sale of its Toledo
refinery, SUN will no longer have any benefit. We estimate VLO’s annual EPS sensitivity
could be as high as $1.4, or 5% of its share price, and TSO at $1.8, or 7% of its share
price. Barclays
7 April 2011 27
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Time to Revisit, Upgrade to 1-OW

The following is from Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Time to Revisit, Upgrade to 1-OW, dated
February 10, 2011. Please see the note for a more detailed analysis.
While we think the common We upgrade the shares of Petrobras Preferred (PBR.A) to 1-OW from 2-EW while raising our
stock may continue to trade at 12-month price target to $39 per ADS from previously $36. We also raise our PT on
premium to the preferred, there Petrobras common shares (PBR) to $40 from previous $37 per share. Our revised PT is
appear no good fundamental based on our NAV estimate using a $90 oil price deck and a 10% discount rate. Although
reasons to justify the valuation we think PBR could also perform well in the coming 12 months, we prefer PBR.A due to its
gap between the two classes of more attractive valuation. Equally important, although preferred shares do not have a voting
share. right, we think last year’s events have proved our long-standing view that there is no value
in this voting right as the controlling stake is held by the Brazilian government. Accordingly,
while we think the common stock may continue to trade at premium to the preferred, there
appear no good fundamental reasons to justify the valuation gap between the two classes
of share.
Relative Valuation Attractive after a Disappointing 20-month Period

Since June 2009, PBR and PBR.A have ranked among the worst performers, if not the worst,
within the energy sector. The two classes of shares have declined 21% and 12%,
respectively, due to the market’s concerns about Petrobras’ future role in the country and
the significant dilution from last year’s large share offering (total ADS share outstanding
jumped from 4.4 billion to 6.5 billion) as well as the high price demanded by the
government for the Transfer of Right (5 billion boe of future production). In comparison, oil
prices have risen 27% in the same period while XLE, EPX, and OSX have gained 37%, 52%
and 43%, respectively.
We think the company’s As a result of the substantial prolonged underperformance of the last 20 months, we think
risk/reward ratio has shifted the company’s risk/reward ratio has shifted favorably compared to the peers, particularly
favorably compared to the peers, the Preferred Shares. Although we are still concerned about the potential interference from
particularly the Preferred Shares. the government in Petrobras’ future day-to-day capital investment decisions and the threat
of rising inflation pressure in the country, these concerns are now fully recognized by the
market and are reasonably compensated by the company’s valuation, in our opinion. On a
P/NAV basis, we estimate PBR.A trades at 20% discount compared to the average discount
of 5% for our group of America-based integrated oil companies and SU at 7% premium. On
EV/proved reserve (we use 2009 since not all companies have reported their 2010 reserve
information), we estimate PBR.A trades at $16.2/boe , or 139% premium over their 2009
PV10/boe estimate compared to the group’s average premium of 161% and SU’s premium
at 313%. On an EV/2012 EBIDA, we estimate PBR.A trades at 7.0x compared to the group’s
median average of 6.3x and SU at 7.4x. On P/2012 EPS, we estimate PBR.A trades at 7.5x
compared to the group’s median average of 8.5x and SU at 10.9x. Compared to SU, we
think the two companies should trade at close proximity with Petrobras at a slight premium,
taking into consideration of Suncor’s comparable long term production and reserve
potential, lower unit profitability and return but lower political and geological risk profiles
7 April 2011 28
Share Price Performance

Integrated oils rose 15% in 1Q11,
Figure 15: Integrated Oil Share Performance
compared to 13% in 4Q10. In
comparison, the S&P 500 rose
5% in 1Q11 compared to 10% in 45%
4Q10. All integrated oil stocks
35%
rose in 1Q11, with the exception
of MUR (down 2%). MRO 25%
displayed the biggest rise (up
44%), followed by IMO (up 22%). 15%
5%
(5)%
CVX
HSE
XOM
S&P 500
MUR
PBR
SU
HES
IMO
MRO
PBR.A
COP
M onthly C hange FY 2011
Note: Year-to-date change represents price changes as of March 31, 2011.

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital
Refiners spiked up 61% in 1Q11,

Figure 16: Independent Refiner Share Price Changes
compared to a 21% uptick in
4Q10. In 1Q11, all the refiners
were up, with the biggest gain 150%
from ALJ (up 129%), followed by
125%
DK (up 86%). SUN showed the
least gain (up 13%). 100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
ALJ
DK
S&P 500
SUN
VLO
TSO
FTO
Note: Year-to-date change represents price changes as of March 31, 2011.
7 April 2011 29
Crude and natural gas prices

Figure 17: Sector and Commodity Price Changes
rose 17% and 2% in 1Q11,
compared to14% and 10%,
respectively, in 4Q10. 70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
(10)%
Natural
S&P 500
Crude Oil
06-10
06-10
average
S&P 500
inventory
inventory
Integrated
Refiner
Gasoline
Distillate
avg.
avg.
Average
Gas
Oil
Note: Year-to-date change represents price changes as of March 31, 2011
Oil Prices
WTI price averaged $93.4/bl in
1Q11, compared to 84.6/bl in Figure 18: Oil Prices
4Q10. We currently assume
120.00
Brent prices to average $112/bl
and $110/bl in 2011 and 2012, 105.00
respectively, while WTI to
average $106/bl and $105/bl. 90.00
$/bl
75.00
We remain bullish on oil prices
over the next 12-18 months due 60.00
to the rate of new major oil
45.00
project start-up and the fluid Nov-10
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
situation in Libya.
WTI Nymex 12-Month strip Brent
Source: Platts, Bloomberg, and Barclays Capital
7 April 2011 30
The WTI/WTS spread rose in

Figure 19: Sector and Commodity Price Changes
1Q11, averaging $3.6/bl, versus
$2.2/bl, in 4Q10 and the highs of
$9.4/bl seen in early November 45
40
2007.
35
30
The Gulf Coast light/heavy 25
$/bl
spread narrowed in 1Q11 and 20
averaged $4.1/bl, compared to 15
10
$8.8/bl in 4Q10.
5
0
May-09
May-10
Nov-09
Nov-10
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Jul-09
Sep-09
Jul-10
Jan-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
LLS-Maya LLS-Mars LLS-WCS
Figure 20: Forecasts
2011
2010 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Petroleum Prices:
Brent Average Spot Price ($/bl) $79.43 $105.96 $120.00 $110.00 $112.00 $112.00 $110.00 $90.00 $100.00 $100.00
WTI Average Spot Price ($/bl) $79.08 $94.48 $113.50 $108.50 $106.50 $105.75 $105.25 $86.50 $97.50 $97.50
U.S. Natural Gas Spot Price ($/Mcf) $4.43 $4.24 $4.08 $4.08 $4.44 $4.21 $4.21 $4.21 $4.59 $5.10
Crude Oil Differentials ($/bl)
WTI/Brent ($0.35) ($11.48) ($6.50) ($1.50) ($5.50) ($6.25) ($4.75) ($3.50) ($2.50) ($2.50)
WTI/LLS ($3.64) ($13.95) ($9.00) ($4.00) ($8.00) ($8.74) ($7.25) ($6.00) ($5.00) ($5.00)
WTI/WTS $1.88 $3.56 $2.84 $2.44 $2.40 $2.81 $2.61 $2.16 $2.68 $2.68
WTI/WCS $14.87 $22.18 $16.46 $14.65 $17.04 $17.58 $14.67 $13.61 $15.86 $16.86
LLS/Maya $12.45 $17.86 $17.07 $15.57 $16.47 $16.75 $16.22 $14.91 $15.66 $16.16
WTI/Maya $8.81 $3.91 $8.07 $11.57 $8.47 $8.01 $8.97 $8.91 $10.66 $11.16
Source: Barclays Capital
7 April 2011 31
OPEC
OPEC-11 (including Iraq)
Figure 21: OPEC Crude Production vs. Capacity
produced 30.1 million b/d in
February 2011, roughly in line
with January production. 36.00
According to IEA, estimated 34.00

sustainable capacity is 35.1
million b/d and is expected to 32.00
end the year with 35.5 million 30.00

b/d.
28.00
26.00
24.00
1Q96 2Q97 3Q98 4Q99 1Q01 2Q02 3Q03 4Q04 1Q06 2Q07 3Q08 4Q09 1Q11
Production Estimated Capacity
Figure 22: February '11 OPEC production estimates (mm bls/d)

Month % Change Estimated Spare End-2011 Production
Country Dec '10 Jan '11 Feb '11 Sustainable Capacity vs Sustainable Capacity Change
mm bls/d mm bls/d mm bls/d Capacity Feb '11 Supply Prod'n Capacity 1Q11 vs 4Q11
Saudi Arabia 8.50 8.80 8.90 1.1% 12.10 3.20 12.10 0.00
Iran 3.68 3.66 3.68 0.5% 3.70 0.02 3.68 -0.02
Venezuela 2.20 2.21 2.20 (0.5)% 2.35 0.15 2.29 -0.07
U.A.E 2.38 2.44 2.48 1.6% 2.70 0.22 2.74 0.04
Kuwait 2.30 2.31 2.38 3.0% 2.55 0.17 2.55 0.00
Nigeria 2.26 2.24 2.16 (3.6)% 2.50 0.34 2.66 0.16
Angola 1.62 1.68 1.60 (4.8)% 1.84 0.24 2.01 0.17
Libya 1.56 1.58 1.39 (12.0)% 1.80 0.42 1.82 0.02
Algeria 1.27 1.27 1.28 0.8% 1.31 0.03 1.35 0.04
Qatar 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.0% 1.00 0.18 0.98 -0.03
Ecuador 0.48 0.48 0.49 2.1% 0.50 0.01 0.50 0.00
OPEC 11 27.07 27.49 27.37 (0.4)% 32.36 4.98 32.67 0.31
Iraq 2.45 2.66 2.68 0.8% 2.75 0.08 2.78 0.03
Total OPEC 29.51 30.14 30.05 (0.3)% 35.11 5.06 35.45 0.34
Spare capacity excl. Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela

Indonesia’s OPEC membership is suspended from January 2009.
1
Cuts refer to OPEC's own estimate of September 2008 production
Source: IEA, Middle East Economic Survey, and Barclays Capital estimates
7 April 2011 32
Tanker Rates
Tanker rates from the Persian
Gulf to the U.S. Gulf Coast and Figure 23: Tanker Rates from the Persian Gulf
Singapore averaged $1.9/bl and
$1.0/bl, compared to the 4Q10 $8
level of $1.6/bl and $0.8/bl,
respectively. $6
$/bl
$4
$2
$0
M ar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
M ar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
M ar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
M ar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
M ar-11
To US Gulf Coast To Singapore
Source: Bloomberg and Barclays Capital
Tanker rates from the United

Kingdom to the Gulf Coast and Figure 24: Tanker Rates from the United Kingdom
the Atlantic Coast averaged $7
$1.8/bl and $1.8/b in 1Q11, up
$6
from the 4Q10 level of $1.6/bl
and $1.7/bl, respectively. $5
$/bl
$4
$3
$2
$1
Mar-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Dec-08
Mar-08
Sep-08
Jun-07
Mar-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Jun-08
Mar-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Jun-09
Mar-11
Jun-10
To Atlantic Coast To US Gulf Coast
7 April 2011 33
Commercial Crude Oil Inventories

According to the Department of
Energy (DOE), total U.S. Figure 25: U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Trend at a Glance (bls in millions)
commercial crude oil inventories 25-Mar-11 355.7
rose by 20.4 million bls in 1Q11, 31-Dec-10 335.3
% quarterly change 6.1%
compared to a decline of 22.6
million bls in 4Q10. Currently, 26-Mar-10 354.2
crude oil inventories are up 0.4% % annual change 0.4%
from the year-ago level.
2006-10 average* (norm) 337.8
% above/(below) the norm 5.3%
On a days-of-supply basis, crude
supplies have 24.2 days of supply Implied supply days**
cover, compared with the At current levels 24.2
seasonally adjusted five-year 2006-10 average 22.8
level of 22.8 days.
*2006-10 similar period average
**2010 average US demand is used to calculate supply days
Source: DOE
Crude stocks are now 5.3%

above the 2006–10 average. Figure 26: Crude Oil Inventories (bls in millions)
380
370
360
350
million barrels
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
W eek
260
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5 yrrange 2011 2010
Source: DOE
7 April 2011 34
Cushing Inventories
According to the Department of
Energy (DOE), total U.S. Cushing Figure 27: U.S. Cushing Inventory Trend at a Glance (bls in millions)
inventories rose by 4.4 million bls 25-Mar-11 41.9
in 1Q11, compared to an 31-Dec-10 37.5
increase of 3.1 million bls in % quarterly change 11.7%
4Q10. Currently, Cushing
inventories are up 35.4% from 26-Mar-10 30.9
the year-ago level. % annual change 35.4%
2006-10 average* (norm) 26.2

Source: DOE
Crude stocks are now 60% above

the 2006–10 average. Figure 28: Cushing Inventories (bls in millions)
50000
million barrels
30000
10000
Week
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
6 yr range 2005-2010 Avg 2011
Source: DOE
7 April 2011 35
Paper Positions: Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable Net Paper Positions

Net long noncommercial paper
Figure 29: Crude Oil
positions averaged 248.4 million
bls in 1Q11, compared to net 350
long 165.5 million bls in 4Q10
300
Net long noncommercial trades 250

are currently 297.5 million bls, or
mm bls
200
19.6% of the total open interest.
150
Paper positions are currently 100
above the historical five-year
50
average and prior-year levels.
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Week
2010 2011 2006-2010 Avg.
Source: Bloomberg
Speculative net long paper

Figure 30: Gasoline (RBOB)
positions in gasoline averaged
78.7 million bls in 1Q11, versus
100
net long 73.4 million bls in 4Q10.
90
80
Noncommercial gasoline paper
70
positions are currently net long
60
mm bls
76.9 million bls, or around 27.3%

50
of open interest.
40
30
Paper positions are currently
20
below prior year levels.
10
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Week 2010 2011
Source: Bloomberg
7 April 2011 36
Heating oil paper positions

Figure 31: Heating Oil
essentially remained flat in 1Q11.
Speculative paper positions in 80
heating oil averaged 53.1 million 70
bls, compared to 53.2 million bls 60
in 4Q10. 50
40
mm bls
Currently, net long
30
noncommercial paper positions
20
are at 48.6 million bls, or 15.8%
10
of the open interest.
0
(10)
(20)
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Week 2010 2011 2006-2010 Avg
Source: Bloomberg
Natural Gas Prices

U.S. natural gas price rose in
1Q11 and averaged $4.2/mmbtu Figure 32: Natural Gas Price vs. Crude Price
compared to $3.8/mmbtu in
115 8.0
4Q10. Our gas price forecast for
N aturalG as Price ($/m m btu)

C rude O ilPrice ($/barrel)
2011 and 2012 is $4.21/mcf in 100

6.0
each year. 85
70 4.0
55
2.0
40
25 0.0
M ar-09
M ay-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
N ov-09
Jan-10
M ar-10
M ay-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
N ov-10
Jan-11
M ar-11
C rude O il N aturalG as
7 April 2011 37
Barclays Capital E&P analyst Tom

Driscoll believes that the recent Figure 33: Natural Gas Prices
rally in natural gas prices may be
short lived as fundamentally the $10
Actual Forecast
market remains oversupplied and
$8
US production continues to grow.
$6
($/Mcf)
Barclays Capital’s Commodities
Team believes that 2011 will $4
most likely resemble last year
amidst shrinking demand and $2
growing supply situation.
$0
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011E
2014E
Storage ended at 1,624 bcf last

week, higher than the historical Figure 34: U.S. Natural Gas Storage
five-year average.
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
bcf
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5 year range 2010 2011
Source: EIA
7 April 2011 38
Production and Upstream Sensitivity

In terms of production growth, we expect Husky and Murphy to deliver the highest growth at 6.4% and 4.9% year over year,
respectively. However, it is worth noting that Husky’s production growth is entirely driven by its recent acquisitions.
Figure 35: Major Oils Production Profile for 2011
Crude/NGL (m bls/d) Natural Gas (mmcf/d) Total % growth Worldwide Crude/NGL Natural Gas
Company US Foreign Total US Foreign Total BOED '10-11 Oil Gas US Foreign US Foreign
BP 530 1,615 2,145 1,800 5,890 7,690 3,427 (9.2)% 63% 37% 25% 75% 23% 77%
Chevron 457 1,408 1,865 1,269 3,783 5,052 2,707 (2.0)% 69% 31% 25% 75% 25% 75%
1
ConocoPhillips 369 525 895 1,617 2,945 4,562 1,655 (7.1)% 54% 46% 41% 59% 35% 65%
Eni 0 1,040 1,040 0 4,385 4,385 1,771 1.8% 59% 41% 0% 100% 0% 100%
ExxonMobil 426 1,919 2,345 3,876 9,687 13,563 4,606 3.6% 51% 49% 18% 82% 29% 71%
Hess 101 193 294 110 514 623 398 (4.8)% 74% 26% 34% 66% 18% 82%
Husky 0 212 212 0 559 559 306 6.4% 70% 30% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Imperial Oil 0 202 202 0 230 230 240 (2.6)% 84% 16% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Marathon Oil 67 169 236 355 535 890 384 (8.5)% 61% 39% 28% 72% 40% 60%
Murphy Oil 18 102 120 56 396 452 195 4.9% 61% 39% 15% 85% 12% 88%
Petrobras 0 2,207 2,207 0 2,615 2,615 2,642 2.3% 84% 16% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Royal Dutch Shell 240 1,490 1,730 1,100 8,010 9,110 3,248 (0.4)% 53% 47% 14% 86% 12% 88%
2
Suncor Energy 0 417 417 0 334 334 472 (14.2)% 88% 12% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Total 8 1,416 1,423 23 5,052 5,074 2,269 (0.6)% 63% 37% 1% 99% 0% 100%
1
ConocoPhillips’ production excludes Lukoil
2
Suncor’s production is net after royalties.
Source: Company data and Barclays Capital estimates
Figure 36: Upstream & Downstream Annual EPS Sensitivity Analysis, $/share
Refining Capacity
EPS Sensivity Per $10/b change in Oil Prices and Refining Margin and $1.5/mcf change in gas price
04/06/11 % vs.Oil % vs.Total As a % of As a % of As a % of
(000s boe/d) Price mb/d Production BOE Oil Sh Price 2011 EPS N. Am Gas Sh Price 2011 EPS Refining Sh Price 2011 EPS
BP $46.86 2,667 124% 78% $0.8 1.7% 12.5% $0.2 0.4% 3.1% $1.8 3.8% 29.2%
Chevron $108.7 1,870 3463% 375% $1.7 1.5% 12.9% $0.3 0.3% 2.5% $1.9 1.8% 14.9%
ConocoPhillips $80.4 2,687 300% 162% $0.9 1.1% 10.7% $0.6 0.7% 7.1% $4.3 5.3% 50.9%
Eni 50.41 737 71% 42% $1.0 2.0% 16.4% $0.0 0.0% 0.0% $0.9 1.7% 14.2%
Exxon Mobil $85.2 6,260 267% 46% $0.8 1.0% 9.8% $0.3 0.4% 3.7% $2.6 3.0% 30.8%
Hess $84.8 245 83% 62% $1.6 1.9% 18.8% $0.1 0.1% 1.4% $1.5 1.8% 17.5%
Husky C$29.2 280 132% 92% C$0.6 2.1% 29.8% C$0.2 0.8% 11.4% C$0.8 2.7% 37.9%
Imperial Oil C$51.1 502 249% 209% C$0.6 1.1% 13.3% C$0.1 0.2% 2.2% C$1.4 2.7% 31.9%
Marathon $52.9 1,142 484% 297% $0.6 1.2% 11.7% $0.2 0.3% 3.2% $3.6 6.7% 64.0%
Murphy $75.5 290 241% 148% $1.0 1.3% 13.3% $0.4 0.6% 5.7% $3.1 4.1% 42.6%
Petrobras Common $40.5 2,061 93% 78% $0.7 1.6% 14.7% $0.0 0.0% 0.0% $0.7 1.8% 16.3%
Petrobras Preferred $35.6 2,061 93% 78% $0.7 1.8% 14.7% $0.0 0.0% 0.0% $0.7 2.0% 16.3%
Royal Dutch Shell A 74.18 3,528 204% 109% $0.7 0.9% 8.4% $0.2 0.2% 2.3% $1.4 1.9% 18.5%
Royal Dutch Shell B 74.48 3,528 204% 109% $0.7 0.9% 8.4% $0.2 0.2% 2.3% $1.4 1.9% 18.5%
Suncor C$42.8 443 94% 83% C$0.6 1.3% 16.6% C$0.1 0.2% 2.5% C$0.9 2.2% 27.5%
Total 61.69 2,594 182% 114% $0.9 1.4% 12.2% C$0.0 0.0% 0.1% $2.6 4.2% 36.6%
Group Median 193% 100% 1.4% 13.1% 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 28.4%
Group Average 393% 130% 1.4% 14.0% 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 29.2%
* Murphy has announced to exit the refining busines to be completed by 1Q11.
Source: Company data and Barclays Capital estimates
7 April 2011 39
Refining
U.S. refining margins rose around
Figure 37: U.S. Refining Margins
$5.1/bl in 1Q11.. The US Gulf
Coast WTI 3-2-1 and Mid- $50
Continent crackspread showed
the largest increase (up $9.5/bl $40
and $9.4/bl, respectively). The
$30
Northeast light sweet refiner was
$/bl
the only region to report a fall $20
(down $0.5/bl), while GC LLS 6-
$10
3-2-1 increased by only $0.9/bl.
$0
We believe that the current high
oil price environment has begun ($10)
to push U.S. gasoline demand Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11
growth rate into negative Gulf Coast California
territory. We think the negative
Source: Platts and Barclays Capital estimates
development could cut short the
refiners’ seasonal trade. Instead
of peaking in May, we think the
group may have already peaked
or is very close to the peak. We
recommend selling the refiners
while buying the high oil beta
producers.
Figure 38: International Refining Margins

In 1Q11, international refining
margins rose in Japan (up $12
$0.9/bl), and Singapore (simple:
up $0.6/bl; medium: up $2.3/bl),
$7
but fell in Europe (simple: down
$1.8/bl, medium: down $0.4/bl).
$/bl
$2
($3)
($8)
Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11
Singapore Europe
Source: Platts, Bloomberg, and Barclays Capital research
7 April 2011 40
Figure 39: Average Quarterly Refining Margins ($ per bl)
Quarterly Averages
1Q11 2006-2010
QTD 4Q10 1Q10 1Q
Gulf Coast LLS 6-3-2-1 Crackspread $2.1 $1.2 $3.4 $3.6
Gulf Coast WTI 3-2-1 Crackspread $20.2 $10.8 $8.3 $10.4
Northwest Europe (simple margin) ($1.8) $0.0 $1.4 $0.4
Northwest Europe (medium) $1.7 $2.1 $2.3 $2.1
Singapore (simple margin) $0.4 ($0.2) $0.3 ($0.6)
Singapore (medium margin) $8.0 $5.6 $5.1 $5.7
Niche Refining Centers

U.S. Mid-Continent (light sweet) $16.8 $7.3 $3.9 $8.2
Rocky Mountain (complex) $19.4 $10.9 $7.7 NA
U.S. Midwest (complex) $22.7 $14.1 $8.1 $12.7
U.S. West Coast L.A. Basin (complex) $9.5 $6.3 $4.2 $13.8
U.S. Northeast (light sweet) $4.8 $5.2 $4.6 $4.1
U.S. Pacific Northwest (medium) $12.5 $11.6 $7.5 $13.0
Japan (complex) $4.8 $3.9 $4.4 $4.8
Benchmark Crude Oil Spreads

Sweet-Sour Spread (WTI/WTS) $3.6 $2.2 $1.7 $3.6
Light/Heavy Spread (WTI/Maya) $3.9 $8.8 $8.6 $11.7
Light/Canadian Spread (WTI/WCS) $22.2 $16.3 $10.2 $16.6
WTI/Brent ($11.5) ($1.9) $2.0 $0.7
WTI/LLS ($14.0) ($4.9) ($1.4) ($2.6)
Source: Barclays Capital, Platts, Bloomberg
7 April 2011 41
Gasoline Inventories
U.S. gasoline inventories fell 1.1
Figure 40: U.S. Total Motor Gasoline Inventory Trends at a Glance
million bls in 1Q11, compared to
a 4.4 million bls decline in 4Q10. 240
Gasoline inventories are now 230
3.5% below prior-year levels and
220
m illion barrels
0.9% below the five-year
average. 210
200
On a days-of-supply basis, 190
gasoline supplies have 24.7 days 180
of supply cover, compared with
170
the seasonally adjusted five-year
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
level of 24.3 days. The supply
days are understated because Week
5 yrrange 2011 2010
DOE’s implied gasoline demand
estimate includes the usage of
Source: DOE
ethanol, while ethanol inventory
is reported under “Other Oil” and
not part of gasoline stock.
Figure 41: Gasoline Inventories (bls in millions)

25-Mar-11 217.0
31-Dec-10 218.1
% quarterly change (0.5)%
26-Mar-10 224.9
% annual change (3.5)%
2006-10 average* (norm) 219.0

% above/(below) the norm (0.9)%
Implied supply days**

At current levels 24.7
2006-10 average 24.3

Source: DOE
7 April 2011 42
Distillate Inventories
U.S. distillate inventories fell 8.8
Figure 42: U.S. Distillate Fuel Inventory Trends at a Glance
million bls in 1Q11, compared to
a 11.5 million bls decline in 4Q10. 180
The stocks are now 6.0% above 170
prior-year levels and 19.2% 160
above the seasonally adjusted 150
million barrels
five-year average. 140
130
On a days-of-supply basis, 120
distillate supplies have 39.9 days 110
100
of supply cover, higher than the
90
seasonally adjusted five-year
80
level of 31.4 days.
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Week
5 yr range 2011 2010
Source: DOE
Figure 43: Distillate Inventories (bls in millions)

25-Mar-11 153.3
31-Dec-10 162.1
% quarterly change (5.4)%
26-Mar-10 144.6
% annual change 6.0%
2006-10 average* (norm) 128.6

Implied supply days**

At current levels 39.9
2006-10 average 31.4

Source: DOE
7 April 2011 43
U.S. Marketing Margins

U.S. marketing margins averaged
Figure 44: National Integrated Marketing Margins
$11.7/bl in 1Q11, up modestly
from $11.4/bl in 4Q10.
$23
$20
$17
$/bl $14
$11
$8
$5
1
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
Week
2010 2011
Source: Platts and Barclays Capital estimates
Pump prices rose approximately

Figure 45: Monthly Domestic Gasoline Pump Price Change
22.4% on average in 1Q11 and
are currently averaging 28.0%
$3.74/gallon. 23.7% 24.1% 24.6%
23.2% 22.4%
24.0%
20.6% 18.1%
20.0%
16.0%
12.0%
8.0%
4.0%
0.0%
National
PADD-1
California
Average
PADD-2
PADD-3
PADD-4
PADD-5
Figure 46: Average Quarterly Integrated Marketing Margins ($ per bl)

1Q11 4Q10 1Q10 2006-10 4Q

PADD-1 (East Coast) $13.2 $11.8 $14.4 $17.1
PADD-2 (Midwest) $11.6 $11.5 $12.2 $14.2
PADD-3 (Gulf Coast) $9.4 $9.2 $10.1 $14.9
PADD-4 (Mid-Continent) $5.6 $8.7 $9.5 $14.6
PADD-5 (West Coast) ex. Ca $8.3 $9.5 $11.7 $13.4
California $14.8 $15.9 $17.8 $18.6
National Weighted Average $11.7 $11.4 $13.0 $15.7
Integrated marketing margin is defined as pump price minus spot price, weighted by product.
Source: Platts, Barclays Capital estimates
7 April 2011 44
Refined Product Demand Trends

In February, DOE estimates
Figure 47: Year-over-Year Change in Demand (through Feb)
gasoline demand rose 4.0%
year-over-year and the agency
6%
DOE forecasts gasoline demand
is up 1.2% year-to-date 2011.
We expect the February estimate 0%
will be revised sharply lower in

the agency’s monthly report due -6%
late April.
-12%
Distillate demand in February fell
1.0% year over year. DOE -18%
estimates distillate demand is up 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3.9% thus far in 2011.
Gasoline Distillate Jet Fuel
Jet fuel demand in February rose

Source: EIA
2.3% and DOE estimates
demand is up 0.7% thus far in
2011.
Figure 48: Gasoline, Distillate, and Jet Fuel Demand (in millions of barrels per day)
Gasoline Demand (mb/d) Distillate Demand (mb/d) Jet Fuel Demand (mb/d)
2011 2010 % Change 2011 2010 % Change 2011 2010 % Change
January 8,412 8,525 (1.3)% 3,968 3,656 8.5% 1,355 1,365 (0.7)%
February 8,995 8,651 4.0% 3,828 3,866 (1.0)% 1,373 1,342 2.3%
March 8,787 3,842 1,446
April 9,103 3,707 1,391
May 9,217 3,635 1,422
June 9,284 3,759 1,507
July 9,332 3,561 1,458
August 9,366 3,800 1,487
September 9,163 3,890 1,451
October 9,086 3,769 1,429
November 8,901 3,877 1,397
December 8,972 4,169 1,383
Year-to-Date Average* 8,689 8,585 1.2% 3,901 3,756 3.9% 1,363 1,354 0.7%
* Year-to-Date average is the same period average for both 2009 and 2010.
Source: EIA, Barclays Capital
7 April 2011 45
Figure 49: Gasoline Excluding Ethanol (000's b/d)

Gasoline incl. ethanol Ethanol Gasoline excl. ethanol Ethanol as Fuel Efficiency
2011 2010 % 2011 2010 % 2011 2010 % 2011 2010 10 vs'09 09 vs '08
January 8,412 8,525 (1.3)% 918 784 17.0% 7,494 7,741 (3.2)% 10.9% 9.2% 0.0% -0.4%
February 8,995 8,651 4.0% 918 795 15.5% 8,077 7,856 2.8% 10.2% 9.2% -0.2% -0.3%
March 8,787 823 7,965 9.4% 4.1% 0.9%
April 9,103 834 8,269 9.2% 1.0% 1.4%
May 9,217 847 8,370 9.2% -1.1% 1.8%
June 9,284 893 8,391 9.6% 0.5% 1.3%

July 9,332 858 8,474 9.2% 0.4% 1.4%
August 9,366 911 8,455 9.7% 1.4% -0.8%
September 9,163 866 8,296 9.5% -0.9% -2.7%
October 9,086 887 8,198 9.8% 1.2% 0.0%

November 8,901 900 8,000 10.1% 1.6% 1.3%
December 8,972 918 8,054 10.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Year-To-Date (Through Feb) 8,689 8,585 1.2% 918 789 16.3% 7,771 7,795 (0.3)% 10.6% 9.2% 0.8% 0.4%
* Preliminary Estimates and Barclays Capital Estimates
Source: Department of Energy, Renewable Fuel Association, Barclays Capital
7 April 2011 46
Refining Capacity
Figure 50: Estimated Refining Capacity by Region (mb/d)

Merchant Centers Niche Center
Firm Gulf Coast Europe Asia-Pacific Mid-West Mid-Con/Rockies West Coast East Coast Other Total
Integrated Oil Companies

BP 475 844 273 485 - 500 - 90 2,667
7,8
Chevron 330 - 748 - 45 512 - 235 1,870
ConocoPhillips 733 610 91 153 318 359 423 - 2,687
Eni - 737 - - - - - - 737
Exxon Mobil 1,505 1,745 1,711 238 60 150 - 851 6,260
Hess - - - - - - 70 175 245
Husky Energy - - - 240 - - - 40 280
Imperial Oil - - - - - - - 502 502
Marathon1 540 - - 602 - - - - 1,142
Murphy 125 130 - 35 - - - 290
Petrobras2 100 - 88 - - - - 1,874 2,061
Repsol-YPF - 740 - - - - - 493 1,233
Royal Dutch Shell 522 1,212 916 - - 279 - 600 3,528
Suncor Energy3 - - - - 93 - - 350 443
Total 174 2,028 48 - - - - 344 2,594
Integrated Total 4,504 8,046 3,874 - 1,753 516 1,800 493 5,553 26,539
Independent Refiners and Marketers
Alon4 153 - - - - 164 - - 317
Delek 60 - - - 71 - - - 131
Frontier Oil - - - - 187 - - - 187
Sunoco5 - - - - - - 505 - 505
Tesoro - - - 58 58 383 - 166 665
6,7
Valero Energy 1,410 210 - - 455 305 - 470 2,850
Refiner Total 1,623 210 - 58 771 852 505 636 4,654
Total 6,127 8,256 3,874 1,811 1,287 2,652 998 6,189 31,193
Capacities reflect the companies' interest in various JVs

1
Adjusted for MRO's sale of St. Paul, Minnesota refinery.
2
Adjusted for PBR's additional interest in Pasadena, Texas refinery. PBR now owns 100% of the 100 mb/d refinery.
3
Reflecting the acquisition of PCA
4
Adjusted for the purchase of Bakersfield refinery.
5
Adjusted for the asset sale of Tulsa to Holly from Sunoco, indefinite idling of the Eagle Point refinery, and the sale of Toledo to PBF.
6
Adjusted for the sale of Delaware City and Paulsboro.
7
Adjusted for the sale of Pembroke, UK from CVX to VLO.
8
CVX is also adjusted for Perth Amboy, NJ, which has been idled since 2008 and is operated as a terminal.
7 April 2011 47
Figure 51: Domestic Retail Margins, $/bl

Quarterly Averages
1Q11 4Q10 1Q10

PADD-1 (East Coast) $12.1 $10.7 $11.9
PADD-2 (Midwest) $9.3 $8.5 $9.5
PADD-3 (Gulf Coast) $7.0 $6.3 $7.7
PADD-4 $3.2 $5.0 $4.8
PADD-5 (West Coast) ex. CA $5.5 $4.4 $8.9
California $12.9 $12.4 $15.8
Source: Platts, Bloomberg, Reuters, Barclays Capital
EPS Sensitivity / Share Price
Figure 52: EPS Sensitivity / Share Price - Integrateds
Refining Capacity
EPS Sensivity Per $10/b change in Oil Prices and Refining Margin and $1.5/mcf change in gas price
04/06/11 % vs.Oil % vs.Total As a % of As a % of As a % of
(000s boe/d) Price mb/d Production BOE Oil Sh Price 2011 EPS N. Am Gas Sh Price 2011 EPS Refining Sh Price 2011 EPS
BP $46.86 2,667 124% 78% $0.8 1.7% 12.5% $0.2 0.4% 3.1% $1.8 3.8% 29.2%
Chevron $108.7 1,870 3463% 375% $1.7 1.5% 12.9% $0.3 0.3% 2.5% $1.9 1.8% 14.9%
ConocoPhillips $80.4 2,687 300% 162% $0.9 1.1% 10.7% $0.6 0.7% 7.1% $4.3 5.3% 50.9%
Eni 50.41 737 71% 42% $1.0 2.0% 16.4% $0.0 0.0% 0.0% $0.9 1.7% 14.2%
Exxon Mobil $85.2 6,260 267% 46% $0.8 1.0% 9.8% $0.3 0.4% 3.7% $2.6 3.0% 30.8%
Hess $84.8 245 83% 62% $1.6 1.9% 18.8% $0.1 0.1% 1.4% $1.5 1.8% 17.5%
Husky C$29.2 280 132% 92% C$0.6 2.1% 29.8% C$0.2 0.8% 11.4% C$0.8 2.7% 37.9%
Imperial Oil C$51.1 502 249% 209% C$0.6 1.1% 13.3% C$0.1 0.2% 2.2% C$1.4 2.7% 31.9%
Marathon $52.9 1,142 484% 297% $0.6 1.2% 11.7% $0.2 0.3% 3.2% $3.6 6.7% 64.0%
Murphy $75.5 290 241% 148% $1.0 1.3% 13.3% $0.4 0.6% 5.7% $3.1 4.1% 42.6%
Petrobras Common $40.5 2,061 93% 78% $0.7 1.6% 14.7% $0.0 0.0% 0.0% $0.7 1.8% 16.3%
Petrobras Preferred $35.6 2,061 93% 78% $0.7 1.8% 14.7% $0.0 0.0% 0.0% $0.7 2.0% 16.3%
Royal Dutch Shell A 74.18 3,528 204% 109% $0.7 0.9% 8.4% $0.2 0.2% 2.3% $1.4 1.9% 18.5%
Royal Dutch Shell B 74.48 3,528 204% 109% $0.7 0.9% 8.4% $0.2 0.2% 2.3% $1.4 1.9% 18.5%
Suncor C$42.8 443 94% 83% C$0.6 1.3% 16.6% C$0.1 0.2% 2.5% C$0.9 2.2% 27.5%
Total 61.69 2,594 182% 114% $0.9 1.4% 12.2% C$0.0 0.0% 0.1% $2.6 4.2% 36.6%
Group Median 193% 100% 1.4% 13.1% 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 28.4%
Group Average 393% 130% 1.4% 14.0% 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 29.2%
* Murphy has announced to exit the refining busines to be completed by 1Q11.
Source: Company Data, Barclays Capital's Estimates
EPS Sensivity/Share Price - Refiners

Refining EPS Sensivity Per $10/bl
Capacity Change In Refining Margin
04/06/11 As a % of
Price mb/d Refining Shs Price 2011 EPS
Alon $14.4 317 $9.6 67% 4823%
Delek $13.6 131 $2.3 17% 230%
Frontier Oil $30.3 187 $3.8 12% 172%
Sunoco $45.7 505 $9.2 20% 2293%
Tesoro $27.4 665 $10.0 37% 455%
Valero Energy $29.8 2,850 $11.5 38% 441%
Group Median 28% 448%
Group Average 32% 1402%
Source: Company data; Barclays Capital estimates
7 April 2011 48
Reporting Calendar—1Q11
Figure 53: Integrateds & Refiners Reporting Calendar, 1Q 2011

Company Date Time (EDT) Conference call number Passcode Playback # Passcode
Valero Apr-26 11:00 AM 800-447-0521 / 847-413-3238 29452125 888-843-7419 / 630-652-3042 29452125#
Husky Energy, Inc. Apr-27 10:00 AM 800-319-4610 NA 800-319-6413 2658
Hess Apr-27 10:00 AM Domestic: (866) 831-6267, 35037375 Domestic: (888) 286-8010, International: 39984937
International: (617) 213-8857 (617)801-6888
ConocoPhillips Apr-27 11:00 AM
BP Apr-27
Royal Dutch Shell Apr-28 8:30 AM US: +1-480-629-9750, NA
UK::+44-207-190-1292
Exxon Mobil Apr-28 11:00 AM Domestic: (888) 811-5448, 8187648 (888) 203-1112 or 8187648
International: (913) 312-1408 (719) 457-0820
Imperial Oil Ltd. Apr-28 Earnings Release
Chevron Apr-29 11:00 AM (703) 639-1116 / (866) 219-5256 1524314 NA NA

Total Apr-29
Suncor Energy May-03 9:30 AM TBA
Marathon Oil May-03 2:00 PM TBA
Alon USA May-04
Tesoro May-05 8:30 AM Webcast: http://www.tsocorp.com
Frontier Oil May-05 11:00 AM
Murphy Oil May-05 1:00 PM 1-866-564-7444 8880163 1-888-203-1112 8880163
Sunoco May-05 5:30 PM
Delek May-05
Petrobras May-10
Repsol May-10
Note: Shaded items are estimated schedules and may change

7 April 2011 49
Appendix: Calendar of Industry Events
Figure 54: April Events

April 2011
SUN MON TUE WED THUR FRI SAT
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
DOE & API release Gas Storage data
inventory data
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CVX Interim Update DOE & API release Gas Storage data
inventory data
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
DOE & API release Gas Storage data Good Friday
inventory data
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
VLO Earnings Call DOE & API release Gas Storage data CVX, TOT
inventory data RDS, XOM, IMO Earnings Call
HSE, HES, COP, BP Earnings Call
Earnings Call
Source: FactSet, Company Data, EIA, Barclays Capital
Figure 55: May Events

May 2011
SUN MON TUE WED THUR FRI SAT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
SU, MRO DOE & API release Gas Storage data
inventory data TSO, FTO, MUR,
Earnings Call
ALJ Earnings Call SUN, DK
Earnings Call
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
PBR, REP DOE & API release Gas Storage data
Earnings Call inventory data
MUR Analyst Day

15 16 17 18 19 20 21
inventory data
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
inventory data
29 30 31
Memorial Day
Source: FactSet, Company Data, EIA, Barclays Capital
7 April 2011 50
Comparative Valuations
Figure 56: Comparative Valuations
Price P/E EV/EBITDA EV/EBIDA ROMC% Dividend

Rating 4/6/11 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E Yield
American Integrateds 1-Positive

Chevron (CVX) 1 - OW $108.66 8.4 x 8.7 x 3.7 x 3.9 x 5.4 x 5.5 x 11.4% 10.9% 2.7%
ConocoPhillips (COP) 2 - EW $80.43 9.6 x 9.2 x 4.1 x 3.9 x 6.4 x 6.1 x 8.7% 9.2% 3.3%
Exxon Mobil (XOM) 2 - EW $85.18 10.1 x 9.7 x 5.3 x 5.2 x 7.4 x 7.1 x 9.5% 9.6% 2.1%
Hess (HES) 1 - OW $84.81 9.7 x 9.4 x 4.3 x 4.2 x 5.9 x 5.6 x 9.5% 9.8% 0.5%
Husky Energy (HSE-TSE) 2 - EW C$29.19 14.4 x 16.8 x 6.1 x 6.5 x 7.2 x 7.7 x 6.5% 5.7% 4.1%
Imperial Oil (IMO-TSE) 1 - OW C$51.08 11.7 x 13.2 x 7.8 x 9.0 x 9.9 x 11.2 x 9.4% 7.4% 0.9%
Marathon Oil (MRO) 2 - EW $52.90 9.5 x 10.6 x 3.9 x 4.2 x 5.6 x 5.9 x 9.0% 8.1% 1.9%
Murphy Oil (MUR) 1 - OW $75.46 10.3 x 9.6 x 4.3 x 4.0 x 5.8 x 5.3 x 9.2% 9.9% 1.5%
Petrobras (PBR-ADR) 2 - EW $40.48 9.1 x 9.2 x 5.9 x 6.1 x 8.2 x 8.4 x 10.6% 9.7% 3.3%
Petrobras (PBRA-ADR) 1 - OW $35.58 8.0 x 8.1 x 5.3 x 5.5 x 7.4 x 7.6 x 10.2% 9.3% 3.8%
Suncor Energy (SU.TO) 2 - EW C$42.76 12.6 x 14.0 x 6.6 x 7.0 x 8.7 x 9.1 x 7.2% 6.6% 0.9%
American Median 9.7 x 9.6 x 5.3 x 5.2 x 7.2 x 7.1 x 9.4% 9.3% 2.1%
Euro Integrateds* 2-Neutral

BP (BP) 3 - UW $46.86 7.6 x 6.6 x 3.9 x 3.5 x 6.2 x 5.1 x 11.5% 12.9% 3.6%
Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSA) 1 - OW $74.18 9.6 x 8.4 x 4.1 x 3.5 x 6.2 x 5.4 x 8.8% 10.3% 4.5%
Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSB) 1 - OW $74.48 9.6 x 8.4 x 4.1 x 3.5 x 6.2 x 5.4 x 8.8% 10.3% 4.5%
Total (TOT) 2 - EW $61.69 8.6 x 7.5 x 3.5 x 3.1 x 5.2 x 4.7 x 9.5% 11.0% 5.3%
European Median 9.1 x 7.9 x 4.0 x 3.5 x 6.2 x 5.2 x 9.2% 10.6% 4.5%
Global integrated Median 9.6 x 9.2 x 4.3 x 4.2 x 6.2 x 5.9 x 9.4% 9.7% 3.3%
Independent Refiners 3-Negative

Alon USA (ALJ) 3 - UW $14.42 72.1 x 19.2 x 8.5 x 6.4 x 10.6 x 8.3 x 3.9% 5.9% 1.1%
Delek USA (DK) 2 - EW $13.59 13.6 x 13.6 x 5.5 x 5.4 x 7.2 x 7.0 x 6.8% 7.4% 1.1%
Frontier Oil (FTO) 2 - EW $30.25 13.8 x 17.8 x 5.3 x 6.0 x 7.6 x 8.4 x 7.0% 5.6% 0.0%
Sunoco (SUN) 1 - OW $45.67 114.2 x 20.8 x 8.8 x 6.3 x 10.1 x 7.4 x 1.6% 4.4% 1.3%
Tesoro (TSO) 2 - EW $27.39 12.5 x 12.2 x 4.4 x 4.5 x 5.7 x 5.7 x 7.4% 7.6% 0.0%
Valero (VLO) 2 - EW $29.82 11.5 x 9.5 x 5.6 x 4.9 x 7.2 x 6.5 x 7.1% 8.4% 0.7%
American Refiners Median 13.7 x 15.7 x 5.5 x 5.7 x 7.4 x 7.2 x 6.9% 6.6% 0.9%
Macro Assumptions US Integrateds/Ref European Integrateds

Brent Average Spot Price ($/bl) $112.00 $110.00 $90.00 $100.00
WTI Average Spot Price ($/b) $105.75 $105.25 $91.00 $101.00
U.S. Natural Gas Spot Price ($/Mcf) $4.21 $4.21 $4.00 $4.50
Refining Margins
U.S. Gulf Coast 3-2-1 $15.10 $13.07
U.S. East Coast $3.96 $4.21
U.S. Mid-Continent $13.05 $12.43
U.S. West Coast $9.56 $9.55 $8.86 $8.60
NW Europe (Medium) $2.01 $2.29 $1.51 $1.55
Singapore (Medium) $7.38 $6.63 $1.50 $1.70
Crude Differentials
WTI/Maya $8.01 $8.97
WTI/Canadian Heavy $17.58 $14.67
WTI/WTS $2.81 $2.61
WTI/Brent -$6.25 -$4.75
WTI/LLS -$8.74 -$7.25
Source: Barclays Capital Estimates
Please see the end of this report for company valuation methodologies.
7 April 2011 51
Appendix: Company Earnings Variance
Figure 57: Chevron (CVX)
Chevron
Segment Earnings (in millions of $, except EPS data)
1Q11E 1Q10A y-o-y change 4Q10A q-o-q change
E&P
US 1,285 1,156 11% 930 38%
International 4,585 3,568 28% 3,917 17%
Total 5,869 4,724 24% 4,847 21%
Downstream
U.S. Downstream + Chemicals 223 132 69% 75 197%
International 293 214 37% 267 10%
Total Downstream + Chemicals 515 346 49% 342 51%
Corporate/Other/Minerals (300) (343) (13)% (294) 2%
Net Income from Continous Operations 6,084 4,727 29% 4,895 24%
Special Items 0 (175) (100)% 400 (100)%
Net Income (Reported) 6,084 4,552 34% 5,295 15%
Shares outstanding (fully diluted) 2,005 2,004 0% 2,009 (0)%
EPS (Operating basis) 3.03 2.36 29% 2.44 25%

EPS (Reported basis) 3.03 2.27 34% 2.64 15%
* CVX 1Q11 estimate assumes zero LIFO inventory gain/(loss). However, we assume derivative and timing loss of $100 mm after-tax,
or $0.05/share loss. Our estimate also includes a $100 mm FX loss ($245 mm in international upstream; $100 mm in international
downstream), or $0.05/share. Our estimate also includes the effect of recently enact higher UK tax rate, effective late March.
Operating data
Oil Realisations ($/boe)
US 90.5 70.5 28% 76.3 19%
International 96.8 70.1 38% 79.1 22%
Worldwide 95.2 70.2 36% 78.4 21%
Gas Realisations ($/mcf)
US 4.0 5.3 (25)% 3.7 9%
International 5.0 4.6 8% 4.8 3%
Worldwide 4.7 4.8 (2)% 4.5 4%
Unit Profitability ($/boe)
US 20.6 17.5 18% 14.5 42%
International 24.7 19.4 28% 20.4 21%
Worldwide 23.7 18.9 25% 18.9 25%
Production
Total liquids production (m boe/d) 1,905 1,933 (1)% 1,946 (2)%
Total Gas Production ( mmcf/d) 5,105 5,101 0% 5,040 1%
Total Production 2,756 2,783 (1)% 2,786 (1)%
Exploration expenses ($ million)
US 75 57 32% 60 25%
International 200 123 63% 275 (27)%
Total 275 180 53% 335 (18)%
Refinery Throughput (mb/d)
US 875 889 (2)% 876 (0)%
International 995 992 0% 1,040 (4)%
Total Throughput 1,870 1,881 (1)% 1,916 (2)%
Product sales (mb/d)
US 525 581 (10)% 530 (1)%
International 217 213 2% 208 4%
Total Throughput 742 794 (7)% 738 0%
Downstream income per bl of throughput, $/boe
US 0.6 -0.3 (278)% -1.5 (137)%
International 3.2 2.3 36% 2.8 13%
Worldwide 3.0 2.0 50% 2.0 53%
Figure 58: ConocoPhillips (COP)
7 April 2011 52
COP
E&P
US 894 757 18% 619 44%
International 1,628 1,158 41% 1,235 32%
Total 2,522 1,915 32% 1,854 36%
Midstream 99 77 28% 91 9%
R&M
US 382 12 3087% 29 1219%
International 27 9 205% 178 (85)%
Total 410 21 1852% 207 98%
Lukoil Investment 0 387 (100)% (1) (100)%
Chems. 127 110 15% 118 8%
Emerging Business 0 6 (100)% (35) (100)%
Other (275) (308) (11)% (305) (10)%
Net Income from Continuous Operations 2,883 2,208 31% 1,929 49%
Special items 0 (110) (100)% 112 (100)%
Total Net Income 2,883 2,098 37% 2,041 41%
Shares outstanding (fully diluted) 1,428 1,504 (5)% 1,466 (3)%

* COP 2011 and 2012 estimates exclude Libya starting mid-February 2011. Results also include the recent enact higher UK oil & gas
income tax of 12% effective late March.
Operating data
Oil & Gas Realisations ($/boe)
US 61.5 53.7 15% 53.2 16%
International 64.1 53.9 19% 56.3 14%
Worldwide 63.1 53.8 17% 55.1 15%
Unit Profitability ($/boe)
US 14.4 12.0 20% 10.0 45%
International 17.3 11.4 51% 12.7 35%
Worldwide 16.1 11.6 39% 11.7 38%
Oil & NGL production
US 402 403 (0)% 398 1%
International 539 637 (15)% 566 (5)%
Total liquids production ex. Lukoil 941 1,040 (10)% 964 (2)%
Lukoil 0 391 (100)% 0 NA
Gas Production (mmcf/d)
US 1,729 1,799 (4)% 1,669 4%
International 3,051 2,927 4% 2,922 4%
Total Gas Production ex. Lukoil 4,780 4,726 1% 4,591 4%
Lukoil 0 312 (100)% 0 NA
Total oil & gas production 1,738 2,271 (23)% 1,729 0%
Total oil & gas production ex Lukoil 1,738 1,828 (5)% 1,729 0%
US 60 54 11% 86 (30)%
International 160 329 (51)% 221 (28)%
Total 220 383 (43)% 307 (28)%
US 1,890 1,887 0% 1,814 4%
Northern Europe 275 288 (5)% 288 (5)%
Equity Affiliate 100 51 96% 133 (25)%
Total Throughput 2,265 2,226 2% 2,235 1%
Margin Assumption
US
Blended Refining Margins ($/b) 10.6 5.6 88% 7.1 50%
Blended Marketing Margins ($/b) 0.3 0.5 (40)% 0.5 (45)%
International
Blended Refining Margins ($/b) 8.7 7.6 14% 12.2 (29)%
Blended Marketing Margins ($/b) 1.7 2.9 (40)% 2.2 (20)%
US 2.2 0.1 3082% 0.2 1152%
International 1.1 0.3 219% 6.8 (84)%
Worldwide 2.0 0.1 1818% 1.0 93%
7 April 2011 53
Figure 59: ExxonMobil (XOM)

ExxonMobil
E&P
US 1,420 1,091 30% 1,317 8%
Non-US 7,527 4,723 59% 6,163 22%
Total E&P 8,947 5,814 54% 7,480 20%
R&M
US 445 (60) (842)% 226 97%
Non-US 585 97 503% 924 (37)%
Total R&M 1,030 37 2684% 1,150 (10)%
Chemical
US 639 539 19% 522 22%
Non-US 690 710 (3)% 545 27%
Total Chemicals 1,329 1,249 6% 1,067 25%
Corporate (600) (800) (25)% (447) 34%
Net Income (Operating Basis) 10,707 6,300 70% 9,250 16%
Special Items 0 0 NA 0 NA
Net Income (Reported Basis) 10,707 6,300 70% 9,250 16%
Shares outstanding (fully diluted) 4,964 4,736 5% 5,031 (1)%
EPS (Operating Basis) 2.16 1.33 62% 1.85 17%

EPS (Reported Basis) 2.16 1.33 62% 1.85 17%
*XOM estimates include the impact of the recent UK tax increases from 50% to 62% effective late March 2011.
Operating data
E&P unit proftability, $/boe
US 14.3 19.8 (28)% 13.0 10%
International 21.6 14.0 54% 17.3 24%
Worldwide 19.9 14.8 35% 16.4 22%
Oil & Gas unit realisations, $/boe
US 53.3 58.0 (8)% 46.5 15%
International 74.5 57.9 29% 64.9 15%
Worldwide 69.8 57.9 21% 60.8 15%
Liquids production, m boe/d
US 458 389 18% 455 1%
International 2,000 2,025 (1)% 2,071 (3)%
Worldwide 2,458 2,414 2% 2,526 (3)%
Gas Sales, mmcf/d
US 3,883 1,335 191% 3,869 0%
International 11,280 10,354 9% 10,783 5%
Worldwide 15,163 11,689 30% 14,652 3%
Total Oil & Gas productiom, m boe/d 4,986 4,362 14% 4,968 0%
US 100 55 82% 122 (18)%
International 505 633 (20)% 436 16%
Total 605 688 (12)% 558 8%
Refining Throughput, m boe/d
US 1,725 1,720 0% 1,732 (0)%
International 3,490 3,436 2% 3,566 (2)%
Worldwide 5,215 5,156 1% 5,298 (2)%
US 2.8 (0.4) (840)% 1.4 96%
International 1.8 0.3 493% 2.8 (36)%
7 April 2011 54
Figure 60: Hess (HES)

Hess
E&P 695 493 41% 420 66%
R&M 85 86 (1)% 28 202%
Trans/Admin/other (42) (41) 2% (43) (2)%
Interest (61) (52) 17% (58) 5%
Net Operating Income 678 487 39% 347 95%
Special items 0 51 (289)
Reported Net income 678 538 26% 58 1071%
Shares outstanding (fully diluted) 336 327 3% 331 2%

*HES estimates include the previously disclosed hedging loss of approximately $85 mm, or $0.25/share loss. Our estimates also
exclude Libya starting mid-February while including the impact of the recent UK tax increases from 50% to 62%.
Operating data
US 97 84 16% 90 8%
International 199 222 (10)% 219 (9)%
Worldwide 296 306 (3)% 309 (4)%
Gas Sales, mmcf/d
US 116 97 20% 114 2%
International 542 608 (11)% 549 (1)%
Worldwide 658 705 (7)% 663 (1)%
Total Oil & Gas productiom, m boe/d 406 424 (4)% 420 (3)%
E&P unit proftability, $/boe 19.0 12.9 47% 10.9 75%
Oil unit realisations, $/boe

US 89.2 70.8 26% 76.0 17%
International 82.5 60.2 37% 67.8 22%
Worldwide 84.7 63.1 34% 70.2 21%
Gas unit realisations, $/boe
US 3.4 4.6 (26)% 3.1 11%
International 5.8 6.1 (6)% 5.8 0%
Worldwide 5.4 5.9 (10)% 5.3 1%
Worldwide Oil & Gas realisation, $/boe 70.5 55.4 27% 60.1 17%
US 100 78 28% 121 (17)%
International 175 73 140% 196 (11)%
Worldwide 275 151 82% 317 (13)%
Net Income, $ million

Refining (14) (56) (75)% (19) (26)%
Marketing 89 121 (26)% 37 141%
Trading 10 22 (55)% 10 0%
Refining Throughput, m boe/d 237 250 (5)% 252 (6)%
Downstream income per bl of throughput, $/boe 3.9 3.8 4% 1.2 218% s
7 April 2011 55
Figure 61: Husky (HSE-TSE)

HSE
Segment Earnings (in millions of C$, except EPS data)
E&P 331 351 (6)% 322 3%
Midstream 50 72 (30)% 39 29%
R&M
Canada 34 7 374% 44 (23)%
US 65 (29) 323% 22 191%
Total 98 (22) 549% 66 48%
Corporate and Other (60) (56) (7)% (122) 51%
Net Income from Continuous Operations 419 345 22% 305 37%
Special items 0 0 NA 0 NA
Total Net Income 419 345 22% 305 37%

*HSE 1Q11 estimate includes a C$80 mm exploration expense, or C$0.07/share charge. Starting 2011, the company has shifted from fu
Operating data
Oil & Gas Realisations (C$/boe)
Light Crude & NGL 99.1 76.7 29% 82.9 20%
Medium Crude 77.9 69.3 12% 65.8 18%
Heavy Crude 66.4 63.3 5% 58.8 13%
Bitumen 65.7 61.8 6% 59.1 11%
Natural Gas (C$/mcf) 3.80 4.8 (21)% 3.52 8%
Worldwide 63.0 57.4 10% 54.8 15%
Oil & NGL production
Light Crude (mb/d) 88 84 4% 75 17%
Medium Crude (mb/d) 25 25 (0)% 25 (0)%
Heavy Crude (mb/d) 76 76 (0)% 75 2%
Oil Sands (mb/d) 23 23 2% 23 0%
Total Oil Production 212 209 2% 198 7%
Natural Gas (mmcf/d) 578 524 10% 494 17%
Total oil & gas production 309 296 4% 280 10%
Upstream Unit Profitability (C$/boe) 11.9 13.2 (10)% 12.5 (5)%
Lima 128 142 (10)% 114 12%
Toledo 68 68 0% 65 5%
Total Throughput 196 210 (7)% 179 10%
7 April 2011 56
Figure 62: Imperial (IMO-TSE)

Segment Earnings (in millions of $CAD, except EPS data)
Net Income, C$mm
Upstream 589 444 33% 526 12%
Downstream 307 39 688% 266 16%
Chemical 26 (1) (2707)% 25 4%
Corporate & Other (21) (6) 250% (18) 17%
Net Income (Operating Basis), C$mm 901 476 89% 799 13%
Special Items 0 0 N/A 0 N/A

Net Income (Reported Basis), C$mm 901 476 89% 799 13%
Diluted Shares, mm shares 854.1 854.2 (0)% 853.6 0%
EPS (Operating), C$/share 1.06 0.56 89% 0.94 13%

EPS (Reported), C$/share 1.06 0.56 89% 0.94 13%
Operating data
Net Production (net of royalties)
Cold Lake (bitumen) 117 118 (1)% 116 1%
Syncrude (synthetic oil) 71 60 19% 73 (2)%
Conventional 17 17 2% 18 (4)%
Kearl 0 0 N/A 0 N/A
NGLs available for sale, mb/d 4 5 (15)% 4 7%
Total Liquids Production, mb/d 210 200 5% 211 (0)%
Net Natural Gas, mmcf/d 239 237 1% 252 (5)%

Total Net Production, mmboe/d 250 240 4% 253 (1)%
Average Realizations, C$/bl

Bitumen, C$/bl 65.5 62.3 5% 58.9 11%
Synthetic Oil, C$/bl 102.0 82.2 24% 84.3 21%
Conventional Crude Oil , C$/bl 90.0 74.5 21% 74.1 21%
Kearl Realization, C$/bl 66.8 63.5 5% 60.1 11%
NGL, C$/bl 63.5 55.5 14% 58.9 8%
Total Liquid Realizations 79.9 69.1 16% 69.0 16%
Natural Gas, C$/mcf 3.8 5.2 (26)% 3.6 7%
Total Realization, C$/boe 70.8 62.9 13% 61.1 16%
Exploration Expense 80 87 (8)% 25 220%
Refinery Throughput, mb/d 445 439 1% 467 (5)%

Petrochemical sales, 000's tonnes/day 2.6 2.7 (3)% 2.7 (3)%
7 April 2011 57
Figure 63: Marathon (MRO)

Marathon
U.S. E&P 31 109 (71)% 17 83%
Foreign E&P 504 393 28% 479 5%
Oil Sands 78 (17) (559)% 9 767%
Refining and Marketing 438 (237) (285)% 213 105%
Integrated Gas 29 44 (34)% 33 (12)%
Corporate (43) 41 (205)% 46 (194)%
Net Operating Income 1,037 333 211% 797 30%
Interest Expense (17) (18) (7)% (17) 0%
Net Operating Income 1,020 315 224% 780 31%
Special Items 0 142 (100)% (74) (100)%
Net Reported Income 1,020 457 123% 706 44%

*MRO estimates exclude Libya starting mid-February while including the impact of the recent UK tax increases from 50% to 62%,
effective late March. Our estimate does not include any hedging gain/(loss) in the quarter.
Operating Data
E&P unit operating profit, $/boe
US 2.5 10.4 (76)% 1.2 107%
International 23.9 17.8 34% 19.7 21%
Worldwide 15.9 15.4 3% 12.9 23%
US 62.6 52.6 19% 55.4 13%
International 68.5 54.5 26% 58.8 16%
Worldwide 66.3 53.9 23% 57.5 15%
Liquids sales, m boe/d
US 78 58 34% 86 (10)%
International 178 193 (8)% 211 (15)%
Worldwide 256 251 2% 297 (14)%
Gas Sales, mmcf/d
US 367 351 4% 406 (10)%
International 536 462 16% 546 (2)%
Worldwide 902 813 11% 952 (5)%
Total Oil & Gas sales, m boe/d 407 387 5% 456 (11)%
US 100 46 117% 83 20%
International 73 52 39% 133 (45)%
Total 173 98 76% 216 (20)%
Refining Throughput (mb/d)
Crude Oil 1,130 1,003 13% 1,195 (5)%
Feedstock 205 97 111% 205 0%
Total 1,335 1,100 21% 1,400 (5)%
Downstream income per bl of throughput, $/boe 3.6 (2.3) (252)% 1.7 113%
Realized Margins
Refining & Wholesales ($/throughput barrels) 6.9 (2.9) (334)% 4.6 51%
Retail ($/gallon of sales) 0.1364 0.1195 14% 0.1388 (2)%

7 April 2011 58
Figure 64: Murphy (MUR)

Murphy
E&P
US 39 19 107% 25 56%
International 138 228 (40)% 129 7%
R&M
US Refining 24 -24 (200)% 32 (26)%
US Marketing 11 9 23% 23 (52)%
International -7 -15 (51)% -10 (28)%
General Corporate and other (25) (68) (63)% (24) 2%
Net income from Operations 179 149 20% 174 3%
Net Income (Reported) 179 149 20% 174 3%
Shares outstanding (fully diluted) 194.2 193 1% 194 0%

*MUR 2011 and 2012 estimates still include its refining operation. We will adjust our estimate upon announcement of firm sales
contracts. However, our estimates have already inlcuded the impact of the recent UK tax increass from 50% to 62%.
Operating data
E&P unit proftability, $/boe
US 15.8 7.2 119% 9.7 62%
International 9.7 15.1 -36% 9.4 4%
Worldwide 10.6 14.0 -24% 9.4 13%
US 75.5 65.2 16% 62.8 20%
International 63.8 51.1 25% 56.3 13%
Worldwide 65.6 53.1 23% 57.4 14%
US 18 22 (17)% 19 (4)%
International 98.9 117.4 -16% 98.4 1%
Worldwide 117 139 (16)% 117 (0)%
Gas Sales, mmcf/d
US 56 44 27% 54 3%
International 356 301 18% 311 14%
Worldwide 411 345 19% 365 13%
Total Oil & Gas production, mboe/d 185 196 (6)% 178 4%
Refining Throughput, m boe/d
US 121 103 18% 169 (28)%
International 79 67 18% 111 (29)%
Worldwide 200 170 18% 279 (28)%
US 3.1 -1.6 (300)% 3.6 (13)%
International -1.0 -2.4 (58)% -1.0 (0)%
Worldwide 1.5 -1.9 (178)% 1.7 (15)%
Downstream Net Income

US Refining 23.6 -23.6 (200)% 31.9 (26)%
US Marketing 11.0 N/A NA 22.7 (52)%
UK R&M -7.4 -15.0 (51)% -10.3 (28)%
US Refining Margin, $/bl 2.8 N/A NA 2.5 14%

US Marketing Margin, $/gallon 0.1 N/A NA 0.074 (3)%
US Fuel Sales, mm gallons 440.3 394.3 12% 435.9 1%
C-Store Sales, $mm 516.0 N/A NA 508.8 1%
C-Store Margin, % 14% N/A NA 14% 0%
UK R&M Margin, $/bl -1.3 N/A NA -0.9 49%
7 April 2011 59
Figure 65: Petrobras (PBR/PBR.A)

Petrobras
Segment Earnings (in millions of R$, except EPS data)

E&P
Brazil 10,354 7,312 42% 7,848 32%
International 814 447 82% 62 1213%
Total E&P 11,168 7,759 44% 7,910 41%
R&M
R&T 551 1,116 (51)% 1,415 (61)%
Distribution 250 362 (31)% 290 (14)%
Total R&M 801 1,478 (46)% 1,705 (53)%
Gas & Energy 300 323 (7)% 332 (10)%
Corporate Others 35 (1,834) (102)% 654 (95)%
Net Income (Operational Basis) 12,304 7,726 59% 10,602 16%
Net Income (Reported Basis) 12,304 7,726 59% 10,602 16%
ADRs outstanding (fully diluted) 6,522 4,387 49% 6,522 0%
Earnings/ADS (Operating Basis), R$ 1.89 1.76 7% 1.63 16%

Earnings/ADS (Operating Basis), US$ 1.09 0.98 11% 0.90 21%
Earnings/ADS (Reported Basis), R$ 1.89 1.76 7% 1.63 16%

Earnings/ADS (Reported Basis), US$ 1.09 0.98 11% 0.90 21%
*PBR/PBRA estimates assume a R$2,000 mm of interest on capital in 1Q11. 1Q11 estimate also assumes a pre-tax FX gain of R$1,305
Operating data

Unit Profitability, R$/boe
Brazil 48.6 35.3 38% 35.8 36%
International 36.6 20.3 81% 2.8 1226%
Total 47.4 33.8 40% 32.7 45%
Total, $/bl 28.5 18.8 52% 19.3 48%
Liquid Realization ($/b)
Brazil 97.1 72.9 33% 79.7 22%
International 89.2 62.0 44% 73.9 21%
Total 96.5 72.2 34% 79.3 22%
Gas Realization ($/mcf)
Brazil 2.4 2.4 0% 2.3 3%
International 2.5 2.5 3% 2.5 3%
Total 2.4 2.4 1% 2.4 3%
Total Realization, ($/boe)
Brazil 83.5 63.2 32% 68.2 22%
International 56.0 38.9 44% 46.7 20%
Total 80.9 60.9 33% 66.2 22%
Liquids Production (mb/d)
Brazil 2,030 1,985 2% 2,030 0%
International 152 150 2% 151 1%
Total 2,182 2,135 2% 2,181 0%
Gas Production (mmcf/d)
Brazil 2,035 1,902 7% 2,124 (4)%
International 567 570 (0)% 558 2%
Total 2,602 2,472 5% 2,682 (3)%
Total Oil & Gas production 2,616 2,547 3% 2,628 (0)%
Exploration Expenses (R$ mms) 1,025 1,003 2% 1,367 (25)%
Refining Throughput (mb/d)
Brazil 1,806 1,748 3% 1,864 (3)%
International 225 205 10% 197 14%
Total 2,031 1,953 4% 2,061 (1)%
R&M profit per bl of throughput, R$/bl 4.3 8.2 (48)% 9.1 (53)%
7 April 2011 60
Figure 66: Suncor (SU.TSE)

Suncor
Segment Earnings (in millions of C$, except EPS data)
Upstream
Oil Sands 765 106 620% 408 88%
North American Oil and Gas (45) 18 (352)% (55) (18)%
East Coast Oil** 0 0 NA 0 NA
International & Offshore 343 263 30% 321 7%
Total Upstream 1,062 387 175% 673 58%
Downstream 589 139 324% 362 63%
Corporate & Others (168) (197) (15)% (176) (5)%
Net Income (Operating Basis) 1,484 329 351% 859 73%
Special Items 0 379 (100)% 494 (100)%
Net Income (Reported Basis) 1,484 708 110% 1,353 10%
Shares outstanding (fully diluted) 1,577 1,573 0% 1,575 0%

*SU estimate excludes FX loss related to debt revaluation and oil sands project deferral charge. Our estimate, however, include hedging
gain/(loss), C$0 for this quarter, and a C$232 mm FIFO inventory pre-tax gain in the R&M segment, or C$0.11/share. Our estimates
also exclude Libya starting mid-February while including the impact of the recent UK tax increase from 50% to 62%.
**East Coast Oil is now recorded in International & Offshore.
Operating Data
Unit Profitability (C$/boe)
Oil Sands 23.1 5.2 349% 12.7 82%
North American Oil and Gas (7.2) (1.8) 309% (8.6) (16)%
International & Offshore 27.5 13.8 100% 17.0 62%
Total 20.1 8.9 126% 12.5 60%
Realizations, C$/boe
Oil Sands 92.4 74.5 24% 74.9 23%
North American Resources 25.8 35.5 (27)% 23.9 8%
East Coast Realizations 103.0 78.7 31% 87.1 18%
International Realizations 96.7 72.8 33% 84.3 15%
Total (Continuing Operations) 86.1 68.5 26% 71.7 20%
Oil Sands Sales (mb/d)
Light Sweet 144 61 135% 85 70%
Diesel & Light Sour 186 136 37% 227 (18)%
Syncrude 37 32 16% 38 (1)%
Total Oil Sands, mb/d 367 229 60% 349 5%
North American Resources Production
Continuing Operations (mboe/d) 69 76 (9)% 71 (3)%
Discontinued Operations (mboe/d) 0 46 (100)% 2 (100)%
Total North American Production, Mboe/d 69 122 (43)% 73 (5)%
East Coast Oil Production, mb/d 62 75 (17)% 63 (1)%
International Production
Continuing Operations (mboe/d) 76 94 (19)% 107 (29)%
Discontinued Operations (mboe/d) 0 39 (100)% 19 (100)%
Total International Production, Mboe/d 76 133 (43)% 126 (40)%
Total Continuing Ops Production, mboe/d 575 474 21% 591 (3)%
Total Production, mboe/d 575 559 3% 611 (6)%
R&M
Crude Oil Processed, m b/d 474 473 0% 485 (2)%
Utilization Rates 92% 92% 1% 94% (2)%
Total Products Sales (mb/d) 654 603 9% 668 (2)%
7 April 2011 61
Figure 67: Alon (ALJ)

Alon USA
Refining & Retail 59.2 (58.5) (201)% (11.2) (629)%
Retail Marketing 3.5 (1.9) (291)% 5.3 (33)%
Asphalt (7.5) (18.2) (59)% (3.7) 103%
SG&A (0.6) (0.4) 50% (0.6) 0%
Operating Income 54.7 (79.0) (169)% (10.2) (637)%
Equity Earnings (3.0) (0.1) 2809% 0.5 (739)%
Other Income 0.4 14.2 (97)% (3.6) (111)%
Interest Expense, Net (22.0) (19.9) 10% (22.5) (2)%
Earnings Before Taxes 30.1 (84.7) (136)% (35.9) (184)%
Income Taxes (11.5) 32.2 (136)% 13.7 (184)%
Tax Rate 38% 38% 1% 38% 1%
Minority Interest (1.3) 3.5 (138)% 2.1 (164)%
Shares outstanding (fully diluted) 57.4 54.2 6% 54.2 6%
Net Income (Operating Basis) 17.3 (49.0) (135)% (20.2) (185)%
Special Items 0.0 (3.9) (100)% (5.0) (100)%
Net Income (Reported Basis) 17.3 (52.9) (133)% (25.2) (169)%
Preferred Dividend 0.9 0.0 NA 0.0 NA
Earnings Per Share (Operating Basis) 0.29 (0.91) (132)% (0.37) (177)%
Earnings Per Share (Reported Basis) 0.29 (0.98) (129)% (0.47) (162)%
*ALJ 1Q11 estimate assume zero inventory/hedging gain/(loss).
Operating data
Refining
Throughput, mb/d 136 61 123% 139 (2)%
Realised Refining margin, $/b 10.9 3.3 229% 4.6 137%
Cash operating cost, $/b 5.9 12.2 (52)% 5.4 9%
DD&A, $/b 1.5 3.8 (61)% 1.4 5%
Refining - Big Springs

Throughput, mb/d 62 43 45% 57 8%
Realised Refining margin, $/b 18.8 4.9 282% 5.2 263%
Cash operating cost, $/b 3.7 6.6 (43)% 3.8 (1)%
Refining - Krotz Springs

Throughput, mb/d 74.0 0 739900% 70 6%
Realised Refining margin, $/b 4.3 2.0 113% 4.6 (5)%
Cash operating cost, $/b 2.8 0.0 NA 2.6 8%
Refining - California
Throughput, mb/d 0 18 (100)% 12 (100)%
Realised Refining margin, $/b 0.5 (0.4) (222)% 2.1 (76)%
Cash operating cost, $/b N/A 8.8 NA 8.1 NA
Retail
Year-end Co-Op site 303 308 (2)% 304 (0)%
Fuel Volume (Gallons per day per site) 40.1 35.4 13% 40.7 (2)%
Current Period - Fuel Margin, $/gallon 0.15 0.09 66% 0.15 1%
Marchandise Margin (%) 32% 30% 8% 32% 0%
Selling Expenses ($/gallon) 0.68 0.74 (8)% 0.68 (1)%
7 April 2011 62
Figure 68: Delek (DK)

Delek USA
Refining & Non-Integrated Marketing 58.3 (10.1) (677)% (1.1) (5167)%
Retail Marketing (6.0) (5.8) 4% (5.3) 12%
Marketing & Supply 5.1 4.2 21% 5.0 1%
SG&A (2.3) (2.1) 12% (2.3) 2%
Operating Income 55.1 (13.7) (502)% (3.7) (1585)%
Equity Earnings 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA
Other Income 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA
Interest Expense, Net (8.5) (8.7) (2)% (8.5) 0%
Earnings Before Taxes 46.6 (22.4) (308)% (12.2) (482)%
Income Taxes (16.3) 8.1 (302)% 4.6 (454)%
Tax Rate 35% 36% (3)% 38% (7)%
Shares outstanding (fully diluted) 54.4 53.9 1% 54.4 0%
Net Income (Operating Basis) 30.3 (14.3) (311)% (7.6) (498)%
Special items 0.0 0.2 (100)% (63.1) (100)%

Net Income (Reported Basis) 30.3 (14.1) (315)% (70.7) (143)%
Earnings Per Share (Operating Basis) 0.56 (0.27) (309)% (0.14) (498)%
Earnings Per Share (Reported Basis) 0.56 (0.26) (313)% (1.30) (143)%
*DK 1Q11 estimate assumes no inventory/trading gain/(loss). 2011 and 2012 estimates adjust for the pending Lion majority
ownership acquisition
Operating data
Gulf Coast - Tyler Refinery
Throughput (mb/d) 60.5 54.4 11% 55.3 9%
Crude 56.0 49.0 14% 48.7 15%
Other 4.5 5.4 (16)% 6.6 (32)%
Total product Available for Sales 59.6 53.4 12% 54.5 9%
Refining gross margin, $/boe 17.93 5.7 215% 7.84 129%
Operating cost, $/boe 4.5 5.1 (12)% 5.5 (18)%
DD&A, $/boe 1.68 1.64 2% 1.77 (5)%
MidContinent
Throughput (mb/d) 72.2 NA NA NA NA
Crude 68.4 NA NA NA NA
Other 3.8 NA NA NA NA
Total product Available for Sales 70.0 NA NA NA NA
Refining gross margin, $/boe 10.54 NA NA NA NA
Operating cost, $/boe 4.0 NA NA NA NA
DD&A, $/boe 1.51 NA NA NA NA
Marketing
Wholesale Fuel Volume (mm gallons) 56.0 54.0 4% 55.5 1%
Wholesale Fuel Margin ($/gallons) 0.135 0.122 10% 0.135 (1)%
Operating expense, $/bl 0.64 0.62 3% 0.68 (6)%
Retail
Avg CO-OP site 414 441 (6)% 417 (1)%
Fuel Volume Per Month per Site (000s gallon) 78.9 77.9 1% 82.5 (4)%
Fuel Margin ($/gallon) 0.13 0.13 (1)% 0.13 (3)%
Merchandise Margin (%) 30.2% 30.8% (2)% 29.8% 1%
7 April 2011 63
Figure 69: Frontier (FTO)

Frontier Oil
Cheyenne 36 (23) (258)% (7) (614)%
El Dorado 185 (20) (1010)% 44 324%
Total Refining and Marketing 221 (43) (613)% 37 503%
SG&A (13) (11) 18% (12) 10%
Operating Income 208 (54) (485)% 25 736%
Other Income (24) (4) 496% (15) 54%
Interest Expense, Net (8) (7) 12% (8) (3)%
Earnings Before Taxes 177 (65) (374)% 2 9335%
Income Taxes (67) 25 (375)% 2 (3958)%
Tax Rate 38.0% 38% 0% -93% (141)%
Net Income (Operating Basis) 110 (40) (373)% 4 2932%
Net Income (Reported Basis) 110 (40) (373)% 4 2932%
Earnings Per Share (Operating Basis) 1.03 (0.39) (367)% 0.03 2929%
Earnings Per Share (Reported Basis) 1.03 (0.39) (367)% 0.03 2929%
yg ( ) g g p
contango benefit of $1.8/b for 80% of El Dorado crude purchase. Our 2011and 2012 estimates do not reflect the pending merger with
Holly.
Operating data
Cheyenne, Wyoming Refining
Throughput, m boe/d 44 41 6% 49 (11)%
Gasoline yied, % 48% 50% (4)% 48% 0%
Diesel yield, % 30% 37% (17)% 30% 0%
Total product yield, m boe/d 42.5 40.2 6% 47.6 (11)%
Gross profit margin, $/boe 18.1 3.0 503% 6.7 170%
Depreciation, $/boe 2.4 2.7 (13)% 1.9 24%
Light/Heavy spread, $/boe 20.0 6.5 210% 16.6 20%
El Dorado Refining
Throughput, m boe/d 145 131 11% 144 1%
Gasoline yied, % 50% 49% 2% 50% (1)%
Diesel yield, % 39% 40% (3)% 38% 2%
Total product yield, m boe/d 144 129 12% 142 2%
Depreciation, $/boe 1.3 1.4 (9)% 1.3 (0)%
WTI/WTS differential, $/boe 3.6 1.7 111% 2.2 65%
Total Refining
Throughput, m boe/d 189 172 10% 193 (2)%
Gasoline yied, % 49% 49% 1% 50% (0)%
Diesel yield, % 37% 39% (6)% 36% 2%
Total product yield, m boe/d 186.9 169 11% 190 (1)%
Depreciation, $/boe 1.6 1.7 (11)% 1.5 6%
7 April 2011 64
Figure 70: Sunoco (SUN)

Sunoco
Refining (55) (42) 29% (8) 587%
Marketing 10 21 (54)% 3 196%
Logistics 23 17 35% 23 0%
Chemicals 10 24 (58)% 4 163%
Total Refining, Marketing and logistics (12) 19 (161)% 22 (154)%
Coke 22 37 (41)% 21 5%
Corp. Expenses (17) (23) (26)% (13) 31%
Net Financing Expenses (17) (17) 0% (17) 0%
Income from Operations (24) 16 (246)% 13 (282)%
Special Items 24 (80) (130)% 74 (68)%
Net Income (Reported Basis) 0 (64) (100)% 87 (100)%
EPS (Operating Basis) (0.20) 0.14 (243)% 0.11 (282)%

EPS (Reported Basis) 0.00 (0.54) (100)% 0.72 (100)%
*SUN 1Q11 estimate includes a negative crude purchase 5-day lag effect of $32 mm pre-tax loss or $0.17/share loss. 1Q11 estimate
also includes 2 month of Toledo operation until it was sold.
Operating data
Total Production available for sale, m boe/d 557 591 (6)% 634 (12)%
Total System Refining & Wholesale Margin, $/bl 4.3 4.1 5% 4.8 (10)%
Retail marketing
Retail gasoline outlets 4,946 4,713 5% 4,921 1%
Convenience stores 607 576 5% 602 1%
Merchandise sales, m $/site/month 92 88 5% 92 0%
Retail margin, $/boe
Gasoline 3.1 3.7 (16)% 2.8 12%
Middle Distillates 2.7 3.4 (19)% 2.4 15%
Petroleum product sales, m boe/d
Gasoline 300 271 10% 303 (1)%
Middle Distillates 28 24 17% 29 (1)%
Chemicals
Product sales (mm pounds) 565 449 26% 582 (3)%
Phenol and related product margins 0.10 0.10 2% 0.09 11%
7 April 2011 65
Figure 71: Tesoro (TSO)
Tesoro
Refining 290 (149) (295)% 74 290%
Marketing 5 24 (79)% 11 (54)%
Total Segment Operating Profit 295 (125) (336)% 85 245%
General and Administrative (94) (57) 65% (69) 37%
Interest Expense (43) (37) 16% (43) 0%
Interest Income 1 0 NA 1 0%
Other Income 0 0 NA 1 (100)%
Pre-tax Income 159 (219) (172)% (25) (744)%
Income Tax (60) 83 (173)% 6 (1104)%
Tax rate, % 38% 38% 0% 24% 56%
Net Income (Operating Basis) 98 (136) (172)% (19) (628)%
Special Items 0 (19) (100)% 22 (100)%
Net Income (Reported Basis) 98 (155) (163)% 3 2803%
EPS (Operating Basis) 0.68 (0.97) (171)% (0.13) (625)%

EPS (Reported Basis) 0.68 (1.11) (162)% 0.02 2786%
* TSO estimate does not include any inventory or hedging gain or loss. However, our estimate include a $47.5 mm pre-tax, or
$0.21/share charge. stock-based compensation in view of the sharp share price appreication in the quarter.
Operating data
Total throughput, m boe/d 560 471 19% 505 11%
Total product yield, m boe/d 591 500 18% 533 11%
Total gross margin, $/boe 14.0 6.3 121% 11.1 26%
Manufacturing cost, $/boe 5.0 5.9 (16)% 5.7 (12)%
DD&A, $/boe 1.9 2.0 (6)% 2.0 (8)%
Mnaufacturing profit, $/boe 7.1 (1.6) (540)% 3.3 113%
Refining throughput, m boe/d

Pacific Northwest 130 122 7% 102 27%
Hawaii 70 66 6% 69 1%
Midcontinent 110 93 18% 113 (3)%
Golden Eagle 250 190 32% 221 13%
Total Throughput 560 471 19% 505 11%
Refining gross margin, $/boe

Pacific Northwest 11.3 5.8 94% 8.7 29%
Hawaii 1.9 0.1 3632% 4.7 (60)%
Midcontinent 21.5 8.6 150% 14.8 45%
Golden Eagle 15.5 7.7 101% 12.2 27%
Gross Margin 14.0 6.3 121% 11.1 26%
Operating cost, $/boe

Pacific Northwest 4.3 4.4 (2)% 5.8 (27)%
Hawaii 3.3 2.8 19% 3.2 3%
Midcontinent 3.5 4.3 (20)% 3.4 1%
Golden Eagle 6.5 8.8 (26)% 7.6 (14)%
Retail segment
Total stations (period end) 880 883 (0)% 880 0%
Total fuel sales (millions of gallons) 327 316 4% 336 (3)%
Fuel margin ($ per gallon) 0.157 0.228 (31)% 0.167 (6)%
Merchandise margin, $ million 12.6 12.0 5% 13.0 (3)%
7 April 2011 66
Figure 72: Valero (VLO)

Valero
Refining
Gulf Coast 286 (11) (2791)% 322 (11)%
West Coast (43) (31) 39% (14) 201%
Mid-Continent 195 (11) (1903)% 68 189%
Northeast (17) 2 (1094)% 36 (148)%
Total 421 (51) (932)% 412 2%
Retail - US 22 33 (33)% 19 16%
Retail - Northeast 38 38 (1)% 42 (10)%
Ethanol 49 57 (14)% 70 (30)%
Corporate (153) (109) 40% (177) (14)%
Operating Income 376 (31) (1299)% 366 3%
Minority Interest/Equity Income 0 0 NA 0 NA
Other Income, Net 10 11 (9)% 22 (54)%
Interest and Debt Expense/Preferred Dividend (115) (127) (9)% (121) (5)%
Income Before Taxes 271 (147) (284)% 266 2%
Taxes 98 (47) (308)% 130 (25)%
Tax Rate 36% 32% 13% 49% (26)%
Net Income (Operational Basis) 174 (100) (273)% 136 28%
Special Items 0 (12) (100)% (574) (100)%
Net Income (Reported Basis) 174 (112) (255)% (438) (140)%
EPS (Operating Basis) 0.30 (0.18) (271)% 0.24 27%

EPS (Reported Basis) 0.30 (0.20) (252)% (0.77) (140)%
*VLO 1Q11 estimate includes an estimate hedging/trading loss of $384 mm after-tax, or $0.67/share. 2011 and 2012 estimates also
assume the pending acquisition of CVX's European R&M operation by early July.
Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates.
Operating data
Refining operating profit per barrel of throughput
Gulf Coast 2.4 (0.1) (2386)% 2.7 (11)%
West Coast (2.5) (1.3) 87% (0.6) 289%
Mid-Continent 5.4 (0.3) (1717)% 1.8 205%
Northeast (1.0) 0.1 (1755)% 2.5 (139)%
Total 2.2 (0.3) (926)% 2.0 9%
Realised Refining margin, $/boe
Gulf Coast 7.8 6.1 28% 7.8 (0)%
West Coast 6.2 5.2 20% 6.4 (3)%
Mid-Continent 10.7 5.3 100% 6.6 61%
Northeast 3.4 5.8 (42)% 6.6 (49)%
Total 7.8 5.8 34% 7.3 6%
Cash Operating costs, $/boe
Gulf Coast 3.7 4.4 (16)% 3.5 6%
West Coast 6.2 5.0 24% 5.1 21%
Mid-Continent 3.9 4.1 (4)% 3.5 10%
Northeast 3.1 4.3 (28)% 3.0 1%
Total 3.9 4.4 -11% 3.6 8%
DD&A, $/boe 1.7 1.6 1% 1.6 7%
Refining throughput, m boe/d
Gulf Coast 1,310 1,137 15% 1,313 (0)%
West Coast 195 262 (26)% 247 (21)%
Mid-Continent 405 363 12% 418 (3)%
Northeast 200 333 (40)% 212 (6)%
Total 2,109 2,095 1% 2,190 (4)%
Retail - US
Company operated sites 992 989 0% 992 0%
Fuel Volume (Gallons per day per site) 5,000 4,942 1% 5,000 0%
Fuel Margin ($/gallon) 0.096 0.139 (31)% 0.086 12%
Merchandise Margin (%) 28% 29% (3)% 28% 0%
Selling Expenses ($/gallon) 0.24 0.25 (6)% 0.23 2%
Retail - Northeast
Fuel Volume (Gallons per day per site) 3,109 3,078 1% 3,277 (5)%
Fuel Margin ($/gallon) 0.301 0.299 1% 0.291 3%
Merchandise Margin (%) 31% 31% (3)% 29% 4%
Selling Expenses ($/gallon) 0.23 0.23 2% 0.21 8%
7 April 2011 67
Integrateds EPS Summary

Chevron (CVX)
CVX Chevron Corporation(CVX): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD
Stock Rating 2010 2011 2012 Change y/y

1-OVERWEIGHT FY Dec Actual Old New Cons Old New Cons 2011 2012
Sector View Q1 2.36A 2.78E 3.03E 2.70E N/A N/A 3.09E 28% N/A
1-POSITIVE
Q2 2.70A 2.93E 3.66E 3.03E N/A N/A 3.21E 36% N/A
Price Target
Q3 1.87A 2.85E 3.11E 3.07E N/A N/A 3.30E 66% N/A
USD 130.00
Q4 2.44A 3.15E 3.20E 2.97E N/A N/A 3.31E 31% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 9.37A 11.70E 13.00E 11.60E 12.80E 12.45E 12.47E 39% -4%
USD 108.66
P/E 8.4 8.7
Potential Upside/Downside
+20% Consensus estimates are from Factset.
ConocoPhillips (COP)
COP ConocoPhillips(COP): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

2-EQUAL WEIGHT FY Dec Actual Old New Cons Old New Cons 2011 2012
1-POSITIVE
Q2 1.67A 1.76E 2.39E 1.94E N/A N/A 2.09E 43% N/A
Price Target
Q3 1.50A 1.76E 1.96E 1.94E N/A N/A 2.15E 31% N/A
USD 88.00
Q4 1.32A 1.88E 1.97E 1.87E N/A N/A 2.17E 49% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 5.96A 7.10E 8.35E 7.41E 9.10E 8.75E 8.50E 40% 5%
USD 80.43
P/E 9.6 9.2
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp.(XOM): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

1-POSITIVE
Q2 1.60A 1.90E 2.28E 1.95E N/A N/A 2.09E 42% N/A
Price Target
Q3 1.44A 1.71E 1.88E 1.95E N/A N/A 2.14E 31% N/A
USD 95.00
Q4 1.85A 2.05E 2.08E 2.01E N/A N/A 2.26E 12% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 6.22A 7.65E 8.40E 7.74E 8.75E 8.75E 8.67E 35% 4%
USD 85.18
P/E 10.1 9.7
7 April 2011 68
Hess (HES)
HES Hess Corp.(HES): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

1-POSITIVE
Q2 1.15A 1.60E 2.29E 1.99E N/A N/A 2.11E 99% N/A
Price Target
Q3 1.31A 1.77E 2.07E 1.97E N/A N/A 2.21E 58% N/A
USD 105.00
Q4 1.05A 2.26E 2.32E 1.96E N/A N/A 2.26E 121% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 4.99A 7.40E 8.70E 7.16E 9.75E 9.05E 8.36E 74% 4%
USD 84.81
P/E 9.8 9.4
Husky (HSE-TSE)
HSE CT / HSE.TO Husky Energy, Inc.(HSE.TO): Quarterly and Annual EPS CAD

Sector View Q1 0.41A 0.36E 0.47E 0.40E N/A N/A N/A 15% N/A
1-POSITIVE
Q2 0.31A 0.49E 0.59E 0.41E N/A N/A N/A 90% N/A
Price Target
Q3 0.30A 0.47E 0.51E 0.44E N/A N/A N/A 70% N/A
CAD 30.00
Q4 0.35A 0.55E 0.47E 0.44E N/A N/A N/A 34% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 1.38A 1.85E 2.05E 2.07E 1.95E 1.75E 2.14E 49% -15%
CAD 29.19
P/E 14.2 16.7
Imperial (IMO-TSE)
IMO CT / IMO.TO Imperial Oil Ltd.(IMO.TO): Quarterly and Annual EPS CAD

1-POSITIVE
Q2 0.60A 0.95E 1.23E 0.88E N/A N/A 0.85E 105% N/A
Price Target
Q3 0.49A 0.85E 1.07E 0.85E N/A N/A 1.01E 118% N/A
CAD 60.00
Q4 0.94A 0.93E 1.07E 0.77E N/A N/A 0.87E 14% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 2.59A 3.65E 4.40E 3.13E 4.00E 3.90E 3.32E 70% -11%
CAD 51.08
P/E 11.6 13.1
7 April 2011 69
Marathon (MRO)
MRO Marathon Oil Corp.(MRO): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

1-POSITIVE
Q2 1.11A 1.31E 1.64E 1.46E N/A N/A 1.46E 48% N/A
Price Target
Q3 1.00A 0.90E 1.21E 1.37E N/A N/A 1.45E 21% N/A
USD 55.00
Q4 1.09A 1.09E 1.26E 1.22E N/A N/A 1.36E 16% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 3.65A 4.85E 5.55E 5.23E N/A 5.00E 5.71E 52% -10%
USD 52.90
P/E 9.5 10.6
Murphy (MUR)
MUR Murphy Oil(MUR): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

1-POSITIVE
Q2 1.41A 1.84E 2.43E 1.66E N/A N/A 2.07E 72% N/A
Price Target
Q3 1.05A 1.65E 2.11E 1.70E N/A N/A 2.07E 101% N/A
USD 85.00
Q4 0.90A 1.73E 1.86E 1.69E N/A N/A 2.07E 107% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 4.13A 6.10E 7.30E 5.90E 7.65E 7.90E 7.39E 77% 8%
USD 75.46
P/E 10.3 9.6
Petrobras Common (PBR)
PBR Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.(PBR): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

1-POSITIVE
Q2 0.97A 0.98E 1.26E 0.95E N/A N/A 1.07E 30% N/A
Price Target
Q3 1.04A 0.91E 1.02E 0.97E N/A N/A 1.10E -2% N/A
USD 49.00
Q4 0.94A 1.02E 1.08E 1.00E N/A N/A 1.10E 15% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 3.91A 3.90E 4.45E 3.46E 4.50E 4.40E 3.54E 14% -1%
USD 40.48
P/E 9.1 9.2
7 April 2011 70
Petrobras Preferred (PBR.A)
PBR/A / PBRA Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.(PBRA): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

1-POSITIVE
Q2 0.97A 0.98E 1.26E 0.95E N/A N/A 1.07E 30% N/A
Price Target
Q3 1.04A 0.91E 1.02E 0.97E N/A N/A 1.10E -2% N/A
USD 48.00
Q4 0.94A 1.02E 1.08E 1.00E N/A N/A 1.10E 15% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 3.91A 3.90E 4.45E 3.46E 4.50E 4.40E 3.54E 14% -1%
USD 35.58
P/E 8.0 8.1
Suncor (SU.TSE)
SU Suncor Energy(SU): Quarterly and Annual CDPU CAD

1-POSITIVE
Q2 0.59A 0.57E 0.83E 0.67E N/A N/A 0.86E 41% N/A
Price Target
Q3 0.39A 0.74E 0.83E 0.78E N/A N/A 0.93E 113% N/A
CAD 50.00
Q4 0.54A 0.82E 0.82E 0.75E N/A N/A 0.89E 52% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 1.73A 2.80E 3.40E 2.54E 3.35E 3.05E 3.19E 97% -10%
CAD 42.76
P/E 12.6 14.0
7 April 2011 71
Refiners EPS Summary

Alon (ALJ)
ALJ Alon USA Energy(ALJ): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

3-UNDERWEIGHT FY Dec Actual Old New Cons Old New Cons 2011 2012
Sector View Q1 -0.91A 0.25E 0.29E 0.01E N/A N/A -0.16E 132% N/A
3-NEGATIVE
Q2 -0.55A 0.16E 0.14E 0.17E N/A N/A 0.41E 125% N/A
Price Target
Q3 -0.59A -0.07E -0.21E 0.05E N/A N/A 0.41E 64% N/A
USD 10.00
Q4 -0.37A 0.07E -0.03E -0.11E N/A N/A -0.11E 92% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year -2.41A 0.40E 0.20E -0.10E N/A 0.75E 0.04E 108% 275%
USD 14.42
P/E 72.1 19.2
-31% Consensus estimates are from Factset.
Delek (DK)
DK Delek US Holdings Inc.(DK): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

Sector View Q1 -0.27A 0.33E 0.56E 0.29E N/A N/A 0.12E 307% N/A
3-NEGATIVE
Q2 0.23A 0.38E 0.40E 0.32E N/A N/A 0.30E 74% N/A
Price Target
Q3 -0.18A -0.09E -0.13E 0.16E N/A N/A 0.30E 28% N/A
USD 12.00
Q4 -0.14A 0.15E 0.22E 0.06E N/A N/A 0.15E 257% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year -0.36A 0.75E 1.00E 0.82E 0.85E 1.00E 0.81E 378% 0%
USD 13.59
P/E 13.6 13.6
Frontier (FTO)
FTO Frontier Oil(FTO): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

3-NEGATIVE
Q2 0.63A 0.68E 0.68E 0.82E N/A N/A 0.80E 8% N/A
Price Target
Q3 0.08A -0.06E 0.06E 0.67E N/A N/A 0.80E -25% N/A
USD 28.00
Q4 0.03A 0.38E 0.40E 0.44E N/A N/A 0.54E 1233% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 0.36A 2.15E 2.20E 2.51E N/A 1.70E 2.40E 511% -23%
USD 30.25
P/E 13.8 17.8
7 April 2011 72
Sunoco (SUN)
SUN Sunoco, Inc.(SUN): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

Sector View Q1 0.14A 0.31E -0.20E 0.28E N/A N/A 0.51E -243% N/A
3-NEGATIVE
Q2 1.31A 0.89E 0.51E 0.62E N/A N/A 1.13E -61% N/A
Price Target
Q3 0.22A 0.57E 0.25E 0.62E N/A N/A 0.79E 14% N/A
USD 58.00
Q4 0.11A 0.10E -0.17E 0.27E N/A N/A 0.45E -255% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 1.78A 1.85E 0.40E 1.79E 2.95E 2.20E 2.73E -78% 450%
USD 45.67
P/E 114.2 20.8
Tesoro (TSO)
TSO Tesoro Corporation(TSO): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

3-NEGATIVE
Q2 0.30A 0.87E 0.97E 0.76E N/A N/A 0.97E 223% N/A
Price Target
Q3 0.51A 0.50E 0.33E 0.64E N/A N/A 0.79E -35% N/A
USD 29.00
Q4 -0.13A 0.21E 0.23E 0.17E N/A N/A 0.27E 277% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year -0.29A 2.35E 2.20E 2.11E 3.00E 2.25E 2.53E 859% 2%
USD 27.39
P/E 12.4 12.2
Valero (VLO)
VLO Valero Energy(VLO): Quarterly and Annual EPS USD

3-NEGATIVE
Q2 0.93A 1.02E 1.16E 1.10E N/A N/A 1.22E 25% N/A
Price Target
Q3 0.51A 0.59E 0.52E 0.93E N/A N/A 1.08E 2% N/A
USD 30.00
Q4 0.24A 0.75E 0.60E 0.50E N/A N/A 0.57E 150% N/A
Price (06-Apr-2011)
Year 1.51A 2.65E 2.60E 2.82E 3.20E 3.15E 3.48E 72% 21%
USD 29.82
P/E 11.5 9.5
7 April 2011 73
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7 April 2011 74
Valuation Methodology and Risks

Chevron Corporation (CVX)

Valuation Methodology: Our 12-month price target implies a 7.3% return on market capitalization (ROMC) under a long term nominal oil price
deck of $100/bl Brent from 2014, representing an equity risk premium of 2.8% based on our current estimated 10-year Treasury yield of 7.0%,
or 4.5% after-tax, compared to our target risk premium of 2.5% for XOM, 3.2% for ConocoPhillips, and 3.5% for Murphy and Hess.
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Our earnings estimates are based on Barclays Capital's current commodity price
assumption on oil & gas, refining and marketing margins as well as chemical product margins. Thus, results could be subject to changes due to
fluctuations in the macro commodity market environment.
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Valuation Methodology: Our 12-month price target implies a 7.7% ROMC under a long term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brent from 2014,
representing an equity risk premium of 3.2% based on our current estimated 10-year Treasury yield of 7.0%, or 4.5% after-tax, compared to our
target risk premium of 2.5% for XOM, 2.8% for Chevron, and 3.5% for Murphy and Hess. We also add $7/share for its long cycle discovered
known resource.
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Our earnings estimates are based on Barclay Capital's current commodity price
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
Valuation Methodology: Our near term (12-month) price target implies a 7.0% ROMC under a long term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brentl
from 2014, representing an equity risk premium of 2.5% based on our current estimated 10-year Treasury yield of 7.0%, or 4.5% after-tax,
compared with our target risk premium of 2.8% for Chevron, 3.2% for ConocoPhillips, and 3.5% for Hess and Murphy.
assumption on oil & gas, refining and marketing margins, as well as chemical product margins. Thus, results could be subject to changes due to
Hess Corp. (HES)
Valuation Methodology: Our 12-month price target implies an 8.0% ROMC under a long term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brent,
target risk premium of 2.5% for XOM, 2.8% for Chevron, 3.2% for ConocoPhillips and 3.5% for Murphy. We also add $10/share for its
exploration potential and long cycle discovered hidden reserves.
Husky Energy, Inc. (HSE CT / HSE.TO)
Valuation Methodology: Our 12-month price target is based on a 10% discount to our estimated NAV of approximately C$33/share, based on a
long-term oil price assumption of $100/bl Brent.
Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO CT / IMO.TO)
Valuation Methodology: Our price target is based on a 15% premium to our estimate of the company's NAV of C$52/share using a long-term oil
price assumption of $100/bl Brent.
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)
Valuation Methodology: Our 12-month price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis. We assume the standalone E&P will trade at 5.8x
EV/2012 EBIDA vs.the large cap E&P companies avg multiple of 6.5x and the standalone R&M at 6.0x EV/2012 EBITDA compared to avg (FTO,
TSO, VLO) of 5.2x.
Murphy Oil (MUR)
Valuation Methodology: Our 12-month price target implies an 8.0% ROMC under a long term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brent,
target risk premium of 2.5% for XOM, 2.8% for Chevron, 3.2% for ConocoPhillips, and 3.5% for Hess. We also add $7/share for the company's
7 April 2011 75

long cycle discovered hidden reserves and exploration potential.
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR)
Valuation Methodology: Our 12-month price target implies that the stock trades at a 5% premium to our NAV estimate of $47/ADS under a
long term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brent.
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR/A / PBRA)
Valuation Methodology: Our 12-month price target implies that the stock trades at a 5% premium to our NAV estimate of $47/ADS under a
long term nominal oil price deck of $100/bl Brent. We take a $1/ADS discount to PBR's price target to reflect the lesser share liquidity and the
lack of voting rights.
Suncor Energy (SU)
Valuation Methodology: Our 12-month price target is based on a 10% premium to our NAV estimate of C$46/share using a long-term oil price
deck of $100/bl Brent and a 10% discount rate.
assumption on oil and gas, refining and marketing margins, and chemical product margins. Thus, results could be subject to changes due to
U.S. Independent Refiners
Alon USA Energy (ALJ)

Valuation Methodology: Our price target assumes that ALJ should trade at $480 per daily barrel of complexity, or 30% of the greenfield
replacement cost of $1,600 per b/d of complexity. During the cycle peak in 2007, ALJ traded at $1,704 per daily barrel of complexity, or 76% of
the estimated greenfield replacement cost of $2,250
assumptions, including oil & gas prices, refining and marketing margins as well as chemical product margins. Thus, results will be subject to
change due to fluctuations in the macro commodity market environment.
Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK)
Valuation Methodology: Our price target is based on an EV/daily barrel of complexity of $650, or 41% of the estimated greenfield replacement
value of $1,600/bl/d. During the 2007 cycle peak, DK traded at 62% of greenfield replacement value.
assumptions, including oil & gas prices, refining and marketing margins as well as chemical product margins. Thus, results will be subject to
change due to fluctuations in the macro commodity market environment.
Frontier Oil (FTO)
Valuation Methodology: Our price target methodology assumes that FTO should trade at $1,450 per daily barrel of complexity or 91% of the
estimated greenfield replacement value of $1,600/bl/d. At the last 2 cycle troughs in 2002 and 1999, FTO traded at 33% and 18% of the
replacement value respectively.
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Our earnings estimates are based on Barclays Capital current commodity price
Sunoco, Inc. (SUN)
Valuation Methodology: Our price target is based on the mid-point of our sum-of-the-parts estimate of $50-$65 per share.
assumption on oil & gas, refining, and marketing margins as well as chemical product margins. Thus, results could be subject to changes due to
Tesoro Corporation (TSO)
Valuation Methodology: Our price target methodology assumes that TSO trades at a $800 per daily barrel of complexity. This is 50% of the
estimated greenfield replacement value of $1,600/bl. At the last cycle troughs in 2002 and 1999, TSO was trading at $460 and $197 per daily
barrel of complexity, or 46% and 24% of the estimated greenfield replacement cost, respectively.
7 April 2011 76

Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Our earnings estimates are based on our current commodity price assumption
on oil & gas, refining, and marketing margins as well as chemical product margins. Thus, results could be subject to changes due to fluctuations
in the macro commodity market environment.
Valero Energy (VLO)
Valuation Methodology: Our price target assumes that VLO should trade at $560 per daily b/d of complexity, or 35% of the greenfield
replacement cost of $1,600 per b/d of complexity. At the bottom of the last two cyclical downturns in 2002 and 1999, the company traded at
33% and 27% of the greenfield replacement cost, respectively.
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Our earnings estimates are based on our current commodity price assumption
on oil & gas, refining, and marketing margins as well as chemical product margins. Thus, results could be subject to changes due to fluctuations
in the macro commodity market environment.
7 April 2011 77
ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S)
I, Paul Y. Cheng, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of
the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

For current important disclosures, including, where relevant, price target charts, regarding companies that are the subject of this research report,
please send a written request to: Barclays Capital Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 17th Floor, New York, NY 10019 or refer to
http://publicresearch.barcap.com or call 1-212-526-1072.
The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total
revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.
On September 20, 2008, Barclays Capital acquired Lehman Brothers' North American investment banking, capital markets, and private investment
management businesses. All ratings and price targets prior to this date relate to coverage under Lehman Brothers Inc.
Barclays Capital produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative
analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other
types of research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.
Primary Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)
Alon USA Energy (ALJ, 06-Apr-2011, USD 14.42), 3-Underweight/3-Negative
Chevron Corporation (CVX, 06-Apr-2011, USD 108.66), 1-Overweight/1-Positive
ConocoPhillips (COP, 06-Apr-2011, USD 80.43), 2-Equal Weight/1-Positive
Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK, 06-Apr-2011, USD 13.59), 2-Equal Weight/3-Negative
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, 06-Apr-2011, USD 85.18), 2-Equal Weight/1-Positive
Frontier Oil (FTO, 06-Apr-2011, USD 30.25), 2-Equal Weight/3-Negative
Hess Corp. (HES, 06-Apr-2011, USD 84.81), 1-Overweight/1-Positive
Husky Energy, Inc. (HSE.TO, 06-Apr-2011, CAD 29.19), 2-Equal Weight/1-Positive
Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO.TO, 06-Apr-2011, CAD 51.08), 1-Overweight/1-Positive
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO, 06-Apr-2011, USD 52.90), 2-Equal Weight/1-Positive
Murphy Oil (MUR, 06-Apr-2011, USD 75.46), 1-Overweight/1-Positive
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR, 06-Apr-2011, USD 40.48), 2-Equal Weight/1-Positive
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBRA, 06-Apr-2011, USD 35.58), 1-Overweight/1-Positive
Suncor Energy (SU, 06-Apr-2011, CAD 42.76), 2-Equal Weight/1-Positive
Sunoco, Inc. (SUN, 06-Apr-2011, USD 45.67), 1-Overweight/3-Negative
Tesoro Corporation (TSO, 06-Apr-2011, USD 27.39), 2-Equal Weight/3-Negative
Valero Energy (VLO, 06-Apr-2011, USD 29.82), 2-Equal Weight/3-Negative
Other Material Conflicts
CVX: Barclays Capital is acting as a financial advisor to Valero Energy Corporation in the potential acquisition of Chevron Corporation's Pembroke
refinery.
VLO: Barclays Capital is acting as a financial advisor to Valero Energy Corporation in the potential acquisition of Chevron Corporation's Pembroke
refinery.
Guide to the Barclays Capital Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:
Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as 1-Overweight, 2-Equal Weight or 3-Underweight (see definitions
below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry sector (the “sector
coverage universe”).
In addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or 3-
Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system. Investors
should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.
Stock Rating
1-Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month
investment horizon.
2-Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-
month investment horizon.
7 April 2011 78
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

3-Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month
investment horizon.
RS-Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage impracticable or
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Sector View
1-Positive - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.
2-Neutral - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.
3-Negative - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.
Below is the list of companies that constitute the "sector coverage universe":

Chevron Corporation (CVX) ConocoPhillips (COP) Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
Hess Corp. (HES) Husky Energy, Inc. (HSE.TO) Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO.TO)
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) Murphy Oil (MUR) Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR)
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBRA) Suncor Energy (SU)
U.S. Independent Refiners
Alon USA Energy (ALJ) Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK) Frontier Oil (FTO)
Sunoco, Inc. (SUN) Tesoro Corporation (TSO) Valero Energy (VLO)
Distribution of Ratings:
Barclays Capital Inc. Equity Research has 1709 companies under coverage.
43% have been assigned a 1-Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 52% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
42% have been assigned a 2-Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 44% of
12% have been assigned a 3-Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 35% of
Guide to the Barclays Capital Price Target:
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trade in the next 12 months. Upside/downside scenarios, where provided, represent potential upside/potential downside to each analyst's price
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Barclays Capital offices involved in the production of equity research:
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Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, New York)
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Johannesburg
Absa Capital, a division of Absa Bank Limited (Absa Capital, Johannesburg)
7 April 2011 79
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1Q11 Earnings Surprise Preview Expect To Beat Consensus by Wide Margin

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EQUITY RESEARCH 7 April 2011

1Q11 EARNINGS SURPRISE & PREVIEW EARNING FORECAST CHANGE

Americas Integrated Oil

Americas Integrated Oil 1-Pos 1-Pos

1Q11 Earnings Surprise Preview............................................................................................................. 4

1Q11 Earnings Surprise Preview

Expect To Beat Consensus by a Wide Margin

Biggest Potential Upside Surprise, in Our View: CVX, ALJ

CVX: We expect the company to report an EPS of $3.03/share, compared to consensus of

ALJ: We expect the company to report an EPS of $0.29/share, compared to consensus of

Biggest Potential Downside Surprises, in Our View: SUN

Figure 1: Operating Earnings, $ in millions (except per share)

Exploration and Production $38,284 $27,931 37 $28,682 33

Rating & Price Target Changes

Figure 2: Earnings per Share before Special Items, in US$

Earnings per Share before Special Items, in US$.

Domestic Independent Refiners and Marketers - Sector Rating 3 - Negative

Source: Company data, FactSet, Barclays Capital estimates

Figure 3: EPS Revisions

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates

Figure 4: Macro Assumptions

Refining Margin ($/b)

Figure 5: Price Target Changes

Source: Barclays Capital estimates

Figure 6: 1Q11 Operating Earnings Breakout

1Q11 Operating Earnings Breakout, $mm

Operating Earnings Breakout, %

Independent Refiners (operating loss)

Figure 7: Upstream Earnings Comparison

Source: Company Data and Barclays Capital.

Figure 8: Downstream Earnings Comparison

U.S. Refiners: Refining Earnings Comparison

Figure 9: Global Assumptions

Cash Refining Margins($/b):

Integrated Marketing Margins($/gallon):

Crude Oil Differentials ($/b)

Source: Barclays Capital, Platts, Bloomberg

Figure 10: Comparative Valuations

Price P/E EV/EBITDA EV/EBIDA ROMC% Dividend

American Integrateds 1-Positive

Euro Integrateds* 2-Neutral

Independent Refiners 3-Negative

Macro Assumptions US Integrateds/Ref European Integrateds

*Please see the end of this report for valuation methodologies.

Figure 11: EV/Capacity

* Barclays Capital does not cover Western Refining and Holly.

Source: Company data, Barclays Capital estimates

Other Recent Reports

 U.S. Independent Refiners: WTI/Brent Narrow + Negative Gasoline Demand = Headwind

 Quarterly Cheat Sheet: 4Q10 Review, March 25, 2011

 Energy: UK Increases Oil & Gas Tax, March 24, 2011

 ConocoPhillips: Analyst Day Preview, March 21, 2011

 U.S. Independent Refiners: Japan Earthquake-Revising Analysis, March 15, 2011

 Energy: Integrateds' Downstream Exposure, March 14, 2011

 Valero Energy: Announced Pembroke Refinery Purchase, March 14, 2011

 ~First Glance Delek (DK) 4Q10 Earnings~, March 10, 2011

 Unsubstantiated Bloomberg Article on VLO's Pembroke Purchase, March 10, 2011

 Chevron Corporation: Analyst Day Preview, March 10, 2011

 Exxon Mobil Corp.: Analyst Day Preview, March 7, 2011

 Energy: PC- Weekly Valuation and Price Performance, March 7, 2011

 Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.: Bi-Weekly Brazilian Drilling Tracker, March 4, 2011

 Americas Integrated Oil: UPDATE: Integrateds' Production Exposure, March 3, 2011

U.S. Independent Refiners: WTI/Brent Narrow + Negative Gasoline Demand = Headwind

Quarterly Cheat Sheet: 4Q10 Review, March 25, 2011

Energy: UK Increases Oil & Gas Tax, March 24, 2011

ConocoPhillips: Analyst Day Preview, March 21, 2011

U.S. Independent Refiners: Japan Earthquake-Revising Analysis, March 15, 2011

Energy: Integrateds' Downstream Exposure, March 14, 2011

Valero Energy: Announced Pembroke Refinery Purchase, March 14, 2011

~First Glance Delek (DK) 4Q10 Earnings~, March 10, 2011

Unsubstantiated Bloomberg Article on VLO's Pembroke Purchase, March 10, 2011

Chevron Corporation: Analyst Day Preview, March 10, 2011

Exxon Mobil Corp.: Analyst Day Preview, March 7, 2011

Energy: PC- Weekly Valuation and Price Performance, March 7, 2011

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.: Bi-Weekly Brazilian Drilling Tracker, March 4, 2011

Americas Integrated Oil: UPDATE: Integrateds' Production Exposure, March 3, 2011

Valero Energy: VLO 1Q11 Interim Update, March 3, 2011

Americas Integrated Oil: Reiterate 1-OW Rating on PBR.A, March 2, 2011

Sunoco, Inc.: SUN Completes Toledo Sale, March 1, 2011

Imperial Oil Ltd.: EPS Revisions, February 28, 2011

First Glance Petrobras (PBR/PBR.A) 4Q10 Result, February 27, 2011

First Glance of Frontier (FTO) 4Q10 Result, February 24, 2011

Frontier Oil: 4Q10: Expect $0.11/share, FC $0.10/share, February 23, 2011

FTO and HOC Merger Announcement, February 22, 2011

Energy: EPS and Macro Changes, February 18, 2011

Americas Integrated Oil: WTI-Linked Exposure, February 18, 2011

Exxon Mobil Corp.: Announced 2010 RRR, February 15, 2011

First Glance Husky (HSE) 4Q10 Earnings, February 15, 2011

Tesoro Corporation: 4Q In Line, But Good CA Margin Capture, February 4, 2011

First Glance of Tesoro (TSO) 4Q10 Result, February 2, 2011

First Glance of Marathon (MRO) 4Q10 Results, February 2, 2011

~First Glance Suncor (SU) 4Q10 Earnings~, February 2, 2011

Sunoco, Inc.: 4Q10: Expect $0.08/shs; FC: $0.09/shs, February 1, 2011

Tesoro Corporation: 4Q10:Expect Breakeven, Consensus $(0.06), February 1, 2011

~ First Glance of ExxonMobil (XOM) 4Q10 Results ~, January 31, 2010

Sunoco, Inc.: SunCoke Separation to Move Forward, January 31, 2010

Chevron Corporation: Despite Poor Reserve Replacement, We Are Buyers on Weakness,

First Glance Chevron (CVX) 4Q10 Result, January 28, 2010

~First Glance of Murphy (MUR) 4Q10 Result~, January 26, 2010

~First Glance of ConocoPhillips (COP) 4Q10 Results~, January 26, 2010

First Glance of Valero (VLO) 4Q10 Result, January 26, 2010

First Glance of Hess (HES) 4Q10 Results -, January 26, 2010

ConocoPhillips: 4Q10: Expect $1.32/shs, Cons $1.30/shs, January 25, 2010

Valero Energy: 4Q10: Expect $0.49/shs, FC $0.34/shs, January 24, 2010

Hess Corp.: 4Q10: Expect $1.10/sh, FC $1.25/sh, January 24, 2010

Energy Reporting Calendar: 4Q10 Earnings Schedule, January 21, 2010

Valero Energy: Refining 101 Call Transcript, January 18, 2010

Marathon Oil Corp.: Downstream Spinoff Announcement, January 13, 2010

ConocoPhillips: EPS Revision, January 12, 2010

Chevron Corporation: 4Q10 Interim Update, January 12, 2010

Valero Teach In Conference Call- Slides, January 10, 2010

Frontier Oil: Downgrade to 3-UW, January 10, 2010

Exxon Mobil Corp.: Downgrade to 2-EW, January 10, 2010

Valero Energy: Downgrade to 2-EW, January 10, 2010

Hess Corp.: 2011 Capital Budget - Slight Positive, January 7, 2010

Murphy Oil (MUR) Congo Drilling Results, January 6, 2010

Valero (VLO) Update, January 6, 2010

Normal seasonality: US refineries normally see peak turnaround activities in March.

European Integrateds Biggest Potential Impact: BG Group

American-based Integrateds Biggest Potential Impact: SU and COP.