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Hoover Archives
2011 . NO. 2
T H E H O O V E R I N S T I T U T I O N • S TA N F O R D U N I V E R S I T Y
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On the Cover mary gingell
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james gingell
gross
Neptune, god of the seas, watches over jeffreygross
james m. jones
the Grand Harbor of Valletta in a Maltese noel s. kolak
jeffrey m. jones
travel poster from the Hoover Archives. kathys.phelan
noel kolak
He wields a trident, his emblem in both kathy phelan
war and peace. The small island of Malta,
crossroads of the Mediterranean, has wit-
nessed centuries of both conflict and calm, visit the
visit the
HOOVER INSTITUTION
ranging from prehistory to the violent
twentieth century. But the creator of this online at
HOOVER INSTITUTION
image, perhaps Malta’s most celebrated
artist, refused to let war and social upheav-
online at
www.hoover.org
www.hoover.org
al trespass on his sun-splashed tableaux.
Read this poster’s story on page 204.
Contents HOOVER DIGEST · 2011 · NO. 2 · S P R I N G
P ol itics
9 Now Prove It
Ten ways for Republican leaders to show they can solve America’s
problems. By keith hennessey.
15 Obama Recalibrated
Two years into the president’s term, his pedestal has been carted
away. Now his administration really begins. By fouad ajami.
19 Conservatism Revived
What did the midterm elections prove? That Americans yearn for
enduring principles—and dislike being pushed around. By peter
berkowitz.
T he E cono my
33 The Money-Go-Round
More evidence that stimulus thinking is wishful thinking. By john
f. cogan and john b. taylor.
La bor
48 Union Made
To bring government budgets back down to earth, first puncture
those inflated labor contracts. By richard a. epstein.
67 Shanghai Surprise
Students in China’s largest city just aced three global assessment
tests. If American education ever had a “Sputnik moment,” this is it.
By chester e. finn jr.
81 In Harm’s Way
How we misjudge the risks—and non-risks—of daily life. By henry
i. miller.
C a li f ornia
eg y pt
A f ghanistan
I srael
R ussia
C hina
133 But We Insist
Not long ago, China abruptly withheld certain rare minerals from
world trade. That was just the beginning. Beware China’s shifting
“core interests.” By jongryn mo.
I nterviews
151 “Time Is Not Our Friend”
Five things Hoover fellow charles blahous wants everyone to know
about Social Security reform—before it’s too late. By ryan streeter.
V a lues
171 Sins of the Fathers, the Mothers, and Others
You can’t blame society for all the bad things people do. Hunting for
scapegoats distracts us from seeking the true causes of social pathol-
ogy. By thomas sowell.
H oover A rchives
Now Prove It
Ten ways for Republican leaders to show they can solve America’s
problems. By Keith Hennessey.
2. Set the right goal: creating the conditions for growth rather than
trying to create growth. Policymakers need to get the policies right and
let business leaders decide how to run their firms. Corporate leaders are
sitting on unprecedented piles of cash, waiting to see what Washington
will foul up next. Take Washington out of their decision-making by creat-
ing a stable, predictable, low-cost business environment. They will then
decide how best to hire, invest, and expand. Your job as an elected official
is not to create economic growth or jobs, it is to create the conditions
under which the private sector creates growth and jobs. Stick to your lane
and let business leaders stick to theirs.
4. Don’t waste all your time on nickels and dimes and process reforms;
instead, slow entitlement-spending growth. Yes, it’s good to cut stimu-
lus spending. To eliminate earmarks. To cut discretionary spending back
to 2008 levels or lower, and to wage the usual left-right appropriations
battles. These are important for restoring confidence in government,
undoing some of the worst spending excesses of the past two years, and
atoning for Republican spending sins. Such actions will be popular with
many who voted to remove Democrats from power. Yet they are quantita-
tively insignificant in the long run.
With the retirement of the first baby boomers, the demographic wave
begins to swamp us. Further delay of entitlement reform guarantees
that tax increases will become part of a future solution. In Greece and
France, citizens rioted because their benefits were being cut. In America,
the new political force wants smaller government. Ignore the AARP’s
bleats and tell the truth about Social Security, Medicare, and Medic-
aid. We must make new, more modest, sustainable promises to younger
workers, who already know that the old promises are bogus.
We should raise the eligibility age for collecting full benefits to keep
up with demographic changes. We should transform these programs from
forced-savings vehicles into strong safety nets that protect future seniors
from poverty. We should tell younger workers that they must start saving
now to supplement that safety net, and that they will be responsible for
a greater portion of their retirement and health care costs than their par-
5. Tax levels and tax structure are both important, but give levels
higher priority. Republicans and conservatives love to debate the ideal
tax reform. Structural reform is good, necessary, and very hard to enact.
By all means push for an improved tax code, but not at the cost of higher
tax levels or failing to develop a credible long-term spending plan. A per-
fectly structured tax code that collects 25 percent of GDP is worse than a
flawed tax code that collects 18 percent of GDP. Beware the siren call of
the money-pump VAT.
7. Offer to help the president expand free trade and open invest-
ment. Rebuild the center-right free-trade coalition. The president will
need to deliver a few Democrats to offset the protectionist Republicans
(darn them). You can fight economic isolationism, raise American stan-
8. Offer to help the president fight the teachers’ unions and improve
elementary and secondary education. You agree more than you disagree
with the president on education. He has shown a limited willingness to
take on the teachers’ unions, and you need him to deliver Democratic
votes to overcome a Senate filibuster. Encourage the president and reward
him when he takes these risks. Prioritize education-reform legislation and
pull him farther than he’s willing to go. Treat this as an opportunity for
imperfect incremental improvements in law rather than perfect message
bills that die in the Senate. Education is a long-term economic issue of
paramount importance.
10. Lay the groundwork for repeal of the Obama health care laws in
2013. Develop multiple alternatives. Now that repeal has passed in the
House, pressure in-cycle Senate Democrats to take a stand, and make
repeal a centerpiece of the 2012 policy debate. In doing so, stop play-
ing the Medicare card. While the health care legislation cuts Medicare
spending in the wrong way, to prevent fiscal disaster we need even more
Medicare and Medicaid cuts than were enacted in those laws. If you use
Medicare to scare seniors and repeal ObamaCare but, as a result, cannot
address Medicare’s unsustainable spending path, you have made things
worse, not better.
Obama Recalibrated
Two years into the president’s term, his pedestal has been carted
away. Now his administration really begins. By Fouad Ajami.
economic malady still cared about the direction of the country and their
laws and institutions—and precedent—to see its way out of great dangers.
Americans have given big mandates to presidents only to send them
packing when they lose the contingent mandate given by the elector-
ate. Woodrow Wilson led the country through the Great War, only to
be rebuffed, and to die later a broken man when he tried to impose the
League of Nations on a country and a Senate dubious of it. Wilson was an
absolutist, which doomed his cause. Of “the League fight” he would say,
“Dare we reject it and break the heart of the world?” But the opponents of
the League were not intimidated.
In recent times, Johnson in 1964 and Richard Nixon in 1972 won huge
popular mandates only to be shunted aside when the consensus around
We have never wanted our presidents to be above the political fray. The
prerogatives of an “imperial presidency” may have grown, but the expec-
tation of political argument and disputation and compromise has deeper
resonance in the American tradition.
“As a student of history”—such is the way Obama described himself
in his 2009 Cairo speech—our president would have known that a com-
mand economy is alien to the American temperament, that unfettered
government spending was bound to arouse the antagonism of the Ameri-
can people. We were not all Keynesians after all, and the American peo-
ple—to liberals’ wonderment—care about budget deficits.
To be sure, there was panic in the midst of the recession of 2008. That
anxiety helped carry Obama to office; it bridged the gap between Obama
and the white working class in the Rust Belt states. But it did not last. To
their credit, ordinary Americans caught in the grip of a terrible economic
malady still cared about the direction of the country and the debt burden
their children would come to carry.
Obama had demonized the Bush tax cuts. They were, in the full length
of his campaign, emblematic of the politics of greed and heartlessness.
But he came around. There was no need to love or embrace them: it was
enough that the president came down from on high to accept the logic of
things and to step aside in the face of the popular revolt against big gov-
ernment and higher taxes.
The era of charisma, which began when Barack Obama was swept into
office by delirium and enthusiasm, has drawn to a close. With the resounding
repudiation of the midterm elections, the tax legislation, the ratification of a
strategic arms pact with Russia, and the end of “don’t ask, don’t tell” thanks to
the support of Republican senators, the Obama presidency has just begun.
Reprinted by permission of the Wall Street Journal. © 2010 Dow Jones & Co. All rights reserved.
Conservatism Revived
What did the midterm elections prove? That Americans yearn for
enduring principles—and dislike being pushed around. By Peter
Berkowitz.
As early as the first summer of the Obama presidency, there was little
doubt that a conservative revival was under way. Constituents packed
town-hall meetings across the country to confront Democratic House
members and senators who were ill prepared to explain why, in the teeth
of a historic economic downturn and nearly 10 percent unemployment,
President Obama and his party were pressing ahead with costly health care
legislation instead of reining in spending, cutting the deficit, and spurring
economic growth.
Still, whether that revival would have staying power was very much
open to question. It still is, notwithstanding the electoral momentum that
produced a Republican majority in the House and a substantial swing in
the Senate.
Sustaining the revival depends on the ability of GOP leaders, office-
holders, and candidates to harness the extraordinary upsurge of popular
opposition to Obama’s aggressive progressivism. Our constitutional tradi-
tion provides enduring principles that should guide them.
In the wake of Obama’s meteoric ascent to office, demoralized con-
servatives would not have dared hope for conservatism to enjoy any sort
Peter Berkowitz is the Tad and Dianne Taube Senior Fellow at the Hoover
Institution, the chairman of Hoover’s Koret-Taube Task Force on National
Security and Law, and co-chairman of Hoover’s Boyd and Jill Smith Task Force
on Virtues of a Free Society.
affairs.
effects.
Not long ago, President Obama and congressional leaders were con-
fronting calls for four key fiscal decisions: short-run fiscal stimulus,
medium-term fiscal consolidation, long-run tax reform, and entitle-
ment reform. The president sought more spending, especially on infra-
structure, and higher tax rates on income, capital gains, and dividends
(by allowing the lower Bush rates to expire). The intellectual and politi-
cal left urged him on, arguing that the failed $814 billion stimulus in
2009 was too small and that controlling spending any time soon would
derail the economy.
But economic theory, history, and statistical studies reveal that more
taxes and spending are more likely to harm than help the economy. Those
who demand spending control and oppose tax hikes hold the intellectual
high ground.
Writing during the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes argued
that “sticky” wages and prices would not fall to clear the market when
demand declines, so high unemployment would persist. Government
spending produces a “multiplier” to output and income; as each dollar is
spent, the recipient spends most of it, and so on. Ditto tax cuts and trans-
fers, but the multiplier is assumed to be smaller.
Temporary, small tax rebates, as in 2008 and 2009, result in only a few
It’s time to remove the Fed from political debates over what policies are
Fed intervention is a poor substitute for sound fiscal policy. The central
bank should be taken off this particular beat.
Congress should also amend the act so that it once again requires the
Fed chairman to report on, and be accountable for, the Fed’s strategy for
monetary policy in writing and in public hearings before Congress. These
reporting and accountability requirements were removed from the act in
2000. They should be restored and strengthened.
In particular, the Fed should explicitly publish and follow a monetary
rule as its means to achieve price stability. Such a rule should include,
among other things: greater simplicity; a description of interest-rate
responses to economic developments, including how the Fed will achieve
The Money-Go-Round
More evidence that stimulus thinking is wishful thinking. By John F.
Cogan and John B. Taylor.
For more than two years, economists have been debating the merits
of federal stimulus programs. President Obama’s compromise on the
Bush tax cuts late last year might be seen as at least partial recogni-
tion that keeping marginal tax rates from rising across the board is the
best stimulus now, especially if the deal leads eventually to making
the cuts permanent. The economic data rolling in confirm that recent
temporary, targeted stimulus programs have not worked, and that their
enactment was a triumph of Keynesian wishful thinking over practical
experience.
In September 2009, we reported empirical research showing that the
temporary tax rebates and transfer payments in the Bush and Obama
administrations’ stimulus programs were ineffective. Here we consider
new data on the impact of increases in government purchases, which were
heralded as a major stimulating factor in the Obama package.
The key tenet of Keynesian economics is that government purchas-
es of goods and services stimulate additional economic activity beyond
John F. Cogan is the Leonard and Shirley Ely Senior Fellow at the Hoover
Institution and a member of Hoover’s Shultz-Stephenson Task Force on
Energy Policy, Working Group on Health Care Policy, and Working Group
on Economic Policy. John B. Taylor is the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow
in Economics at the Hoover Institution, the chairman of Hoover’s Working
Group on Economic Policy and a member of the Shultz-Stephenson Task Force
on Energy Policy, and the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics
at Stanford University.
purchases at the federal level has, thus far, been extremely small.
Plain old permanent federal income tax cuts retain their superiority as a
The bottom line is that the federal government borrowed funds from
the public and transferred these funds to state and local governments,
which then used the funds mainly to reduce borrowing from the public.
The net impact on aggregate economic activity is zero, regardless of the
magnitude of the government-purchases multiplier.
This behavior is a replay of the failed stimulus attempts of the 1970s.
As Gramlich found in his work on the anti-recession grants to state and
local governments: “A large share of the [grant] money seems likely to pad
the surpluses of state and local governments, in which case there are no
obvious macrostabilization benefits.”
The implication of our empirical research and Gramlich’s is not that
the stimulus of 2009 was too small, but rather that such countercyclical
programs are inherently limited. The lesson is to beware of politicians
proposing public works and other government purchases as a means to
stimulate the economy. They did not work then and they are not working
now.
Reprinted by permission of the Wall Street Journal. © 2010 Dow Jones & Co. All rights reserved.
States of Hardship
With unions, pensions, and mandates helping to do the digging, state
and local governments find themselves in a hole even deeper than
Washington’s. By Gary S. Becker.
Gary S. Becker is the Rose-Marie and Jack R. Anderson Senior Fellow at the
Hoover Institution and a member of Hoover’s Working Group on Economic
Policy and Shultz-Stephenson Task Force on Energy Policy. He is also the
University Professor of Economics and Sociology at the University of Chicago. He
was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1992.
support.
As bad as their present fiscal situation is, the long-term picture for state
and local government finance is worse. The vast, looming problem is the
amount of unfunded liabilities for pensions and health care to retired gov-
ernment employees. Recent estimates place the present, or discounted,
value of state and local government unfunded liabilities at over $3 trillion.
This amounts to about 22 percent of American GDP, and it is more than
150 percent of annual state and local government spending. There are
several reasons unfunded liabilities are so large.
Most state and local government employees can retire when they are still
young, often after twenty to twenty-five years on the job. To make mat-
ters worse, these governments continue to use defined-benefit systems, in
which the amounts paid to retired workers are only very loosely based on a
worker’s contributions to the pension system. Retirement incomes depend
mainly on earnings during the last few years of government employment.
Earnings already tend to be much higher at older than at younger ages,
and workers sometimes make the relevant earnings even higher by taking
overtime pay shortly before retirement, and by other means.
retirement obligations.
New York Times columnist Paul Krugman wrote a recent column titled
“Hey, Small Spender” in which the titular small spender is—sans delib-
erate irony—the federal government. He argued that accelerated federal
spending was called for to reduce unemployment and feed economic
growth—familiar turf for Krugman, who over the past couple of years has
argued that the federal government should spend more, and run still larger
deficits, than at present. But then he made the remarkable assertion that
no spending expansion had yet taken place.
“The whole story is a myth. There never was a big expansion of govern-
ment spending,” he wrote. Later he said, “Where’s all that spending we
keep hearing about? It never happened.” Krugman repeated this “never
happened” verdict twice more in the column. For good measure, he also
wrote of a “widespread perception that government spending has surged,
when it hasn’t.” This alleged misperception, he said, arose in part from a
“disinformation campaign from the right, based on the usual combination
of fact-free assertions and cooked numbers.”
Before delving into the particulars of Krugman’s policy arguments, let’s
eliminate the risk of fact-free assertions and examine the data pertinent
to government spending levels. If there is a disinformation campaign, the
Charles Blahous is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and one of two
public trustees for the Social Security and Medicare programs.
The spending increase that Krugman says never happened? It was in fact
Union Made
To bring government budgets back down to earth, first puncture
those inflated labor contracts. By Richard A. Epstein.
problem that only gets worse. It’s too late for that.
These figures are no accident. Major states like California, Illinois, and
New York require state agencies and local governments to negotiate with
unions. To avoid strikes, compliant public officials grant unions guaran-
teed wage and pension contracts that shift all the risk of the economic
downturn onto the public treasury. Bad times have led to a collapse in the
stock market and a decline in tax revenues. So what if private citizens are
taken to the cleaners? Who cares if discretionary public services are cut?
The union ship continues to ride high and untroubled on the roiling seas.
The public fury grows with each new social dislocation. To finesse the
blow, clever union leaders try, as in New York state, to direct all cuts to
future union members, thereby leaving untouched the wage and pension
package for current employees and pensioners. Too little, too late. Deep
cuts must be made today, not in a generation.
The only serious solution: do two things and avoid a third. First, launch
a frontal assault on the protected status of public unions. Second, cut pen-
sion benefits for present and future union retirees. Third, forbid the use of
federal tax money to bail out failing states and municipalities.
Regarding the first step, Calvin Coolidge underestimated the risks of
public unions when he famously said, “There is no right to strike against
the public safety by anyone, anywhere, any time.” No-strike laws address
this risk but create another one in its stead: excessive monopoly power
through the power of mandatory arbitration. The correct solution is more
Cutting the U.S. defense budget, even by a little, is fraught with predic-
tions and bets. Unlike other major federal spending, the defense budget is
a wager on what lies ahead overseas: Will it be peace, war, or deterrence?
Who are our potential adversaries, and what will become of the current
ones? Armies and navies are built and sustained over many years in response
to these deadly serious calculations about war and the prevention of war.
Even so, when Defense Secretary Robert Gates proposed cuts to the
Pentagon’s budget earlier this year, he set off more than the usual guns-
and-butter political debate. That same week, the national debt surpassed
a dubious milestone: $14 trillion, an all-time high. Analysts note that
soaring federal expenditures on entitlement programs will rise further as
President Obama’s signature health care program comes on line. Above all,
© USMC
A V OI D I N G “ H O L L OW ARMY” SYNDROME
Most obviously, Gates assumes a diminished need for ground combat.
The Army would see its active-duty troop levels fall 27,000, from the
existing 569,000, while the Marine Corps shrinks by as many as 20,000
troops, from its current size of 202,000, by the time of the presumed hand-
over of Afghanistan to national forces in 2014. The Gates budget bets that
land-warfare commitments will continue to shrink from their height three
years ago, when infantry-intense battles raged in Iraq and Taliban attacks
escalated in Afghanistan. It assumes that America can avoid interventions.
But since the end of the Cold War, U.S. forces have intruded on foreign
territory on average every two and a half years, and thus the odds are
against a stay-in-the-barracks military force.
The Gates cuts were driven not by the Defense Department but by the
Since the Cold War, U.S. forces have intruded on foreign territory on
average every two and a half years. The odds are against a stay-in-the-
Just before 9/11, steep Army reductions were on the table—so heady
was the belief that an agile, mobile, and lethal force could knock out any
Gates’s projected downsizing over five years does not constitute a hol-
lowing out of America’s land forces, although it is still a bet on the future
we want, not on what we might get. Perhaps the American public’s dis-
enchantment with the expenditure of so much blood and treasure in the
lands east of the Persian Gulf will constrain Washington from venturing
again into gigantic conflicts that cost a trillion dollars and nearly six thou-
sand lives. But the future is unknowable.
T H E H E D G E D B E T ON CHINA
Another wager stems from the extraordinary rise of China to the front
ranks of world powers. Not since nineteenth-century Germany burst on
the international scene has a country so catapulted itself into the Ameri-
can consciousness.
The threatening armaments and blustering behavior of pre–World War I
Germany helped lock Europe into a collision course that European pow-
ers failed to avert. History need not repeat itself, but the historical warning
lights are currently blinking yellow over Sino-American tensions. Con-
flict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China over
Taiwan, North Korea, or tiny, disputed islands off the Asian continent is
far from preordained. Yet the emergence of China, like that of the Kai-
politics. Closeouts always boil down to lost local jobs—and lost votes for
a sitting politician.
The defense budget proposal thus takes a modest crossover step from a
posture fixed on counterinsurgency war-fighting to glimmers of recogni-
tion that America is a Pacific power with vital interests in East Asia. Hence,
Gates’s last budget before his retirement might constitute a transition.
The proposed budget underwrites several systems suited to the new
Asian reality. Spending is designated for electronic jammers (to counter
Chinese electronic warfare), new radar for F-15 fighters, and carrier-
launched drones for surveillance over wide ocean areas and strikes against
threats to U.S. warships from other vessels or shore-based sites. It also
K N O W I N G W H E N TO FOLD
Gates also laid his bets for and against weapons now being developed.
He is not the first defense secretary to cancel lingering white elephants,
of course. His immediate predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld, canceled the
Army’s Crusader, a self-propelled howitzer, and its Comanche, an armed
reconnaissance helicopter. The Rumsfeldian Pentagon also delayed and
reduced funding for the Army’s premier Future Combat Systems, a fleet
of manned and unmanned networked vehicles that finally died a dignified
death by being further studied under another program. As a consolation
to the Army, money chopped by Gates from its hoped-for new weapons
was designated to upgrade the Abrams tank, the Bradley Fighting Vehicle,
and the Stryker armored vehicle. This was prudent, since each of these
armored carapaces is deployed in hostile environments.
Gates inevitably also closed in on some favorite weapons packages that
the military branches, along with their corporate and political allies, will
fight to salvage. The Army lost its non-line-of-sight missile; the Marines
saw their variant of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter placed on probation; and
the Corps also stood to lose its long-awaited seaborne vehicle. Longing
to return to their World War II beach-landing fame, Marine generals had
billed the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) as a fast and protected
transport from warship to shore-storming operations. The multibillion-
dollar amphibious EFV (being developed by General Dynamics) hit
heavy political seas. Plagued by cost overruns, mechanical breakdowns,
and failed tests, the expeditionary vehicle, in the view of Gates and other
experts, is an anachronism unsuited to the age of accurate cruise missiles
that can easily be fired at it from coastal batteries.
The decision to cancel the Marine vehicle might not stick; it has already
run into intense political and corporate lobbying. Ironically, the Marine
Corps commandant, General James Amos, has publicly praised Gates’s
decision to cancel the EFV, saying that the money saved by not produc-
ing the vastly expensive vehicle could be more usefully plowed into other
The Chinese military’s test flight of its new, stealthy fighter jet, which
coincided with Gates’s visit to Beijing, was as welcome as shark fins near
the beach.
Last year, Gates ran afoul of local interests in another venue when he
tried to eliminate the Joint Forces Command in Norfolk. Its founding
mission had largely been accomplished and it had become a contractors’
haven, with associated high defense expenditures. Parochial interests—
the bane of defense-cutting efforts for decades—forced a partial retreat.
Under congressional lobbying, the defense secretary decided that about
half of the JFC duties could be parceled out to other Defense Department
entities in Virginia’s Tidewater area. The JFC case shows how difficult and
complex it is to pare down the Pentagon’s budget. Canceling or even trim-
ming a weapon or closing a base triggers intense politics because closeouts
boil down to lost local jobs—and votes for a sitting politician. The process
is far from the best way to devise and implement a global defense strategy,
but it is as American as pumpkin pie.
Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at the
Hoover Institution.
Indeed, America now accounts for about 40 percent of the world’s mili-
tary spending. That is six times as much as its supposed chief rival, China.
And when America’s defense expenditure is added to the military budgets
of Europe, as well as those of Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and
other allies, the Western alliance accounts for nearly three-fourths of all
global outlay on defense. Why can’t fiscal conservatives at least freeze Pen-
tagon spending in an era of near–financial collapse?
In addition, arms alone are not always enough to foster national securi-
ty and global influence. China, with an economy one-third the size of ours
and a military budget one-sixth the size of ours, is increasing its profile in
Africa and Latin America and is insidiously reminding Japan, the Philip-
pines, South Korea, and Taiwan that the time is approaching when a near-
bankrupt United States either cannot or will not support them in times of
existential crisis. Flush with nearly $2.5 trillion in cash reserves (the result
of huge ongoing trade surpluses and budgetary discipline), China reminds
both neutrals and rivals that it has plenty of money to buy, bribe, or per-
suade its way with nations—and will have even more in the years ahead,
even as its chief rival, the United States, will have less.
In Washington, meanwhile, the Democratic White House and Senate
are most likely to compromise on budget cuts if defense-spending freezes
or reductions are on the table—concessions that might both preclude
C O M P E L L I N G REASONS TO GO SLOW
Yet there are also compelling reasons not to cut defense, and these are
rarely discussed. The United States has an alarming record of courting
danger when it has slashed defense, or even been merely perceived abroad
to be pruning its military. In the 1930s the Germans and Japanese did not
take the United States seriously as a deterrent power, and understandably
so: it was not until 1943—after tens of thousands of American deaths—
that the United States finally deployed planes, armor, and ships that were
roughly equal in numbers and quality to those of its Axis enemies.
China reminds both neutrals and rivals that it has plenty of money to buy,
bribe, or persuade its way around the world—and will have even more in
R E G A I N S I G HT OF STRATEGIC GOALS
Of course it is salutary to review carefully all Pentagon expenditures, and
to make sure we are not purchasing assets or fielding forces that we do not
Shanghai Surprise
Students in China’s largest city just aced three global assessment
tests. If American education ever had a “Sputnik moment,” this is it.
By Chester E. Finn Jr.
Fifty-three years after the Soviets launched Sputnik, the world’s first sat-
ellite, and shook up American education by giving us reason to believe
the Soviet Union had surpassed us, China delivered a fresh shock. On
math, reading, and science tests given to fifteen-year-olds in sixty-five
countries, Shanghai’s teenagers topped every other jurisdiction in all
three subjects. Hong Kong also ranked in the top four on all three
assessments.
Though Hong Kong took part in earlier rounds of the OECD’s Pro-
gram for International Student Assessment (PISA), the 2009 test marked
the first time that youngsters in mainland China had participated. The
tests were given only in Shanghai—the country’s flagship city, on which
Beijing has lavished much investment and attention, many favorable poli-
cies, and (for China) a relatively high degree of freedom. But Americans
would be making a big mistake to suppose that Shanghai’s results are an
aberration.
If China can produce top PISA scorers in one city in 2009—Shanghai’s
population of twenty million is larger than that of many whole coun-
tries—it can do this in ten cities in 2019 and fifty in 2029. Or maybe
faster.
Today most cities and towns in China don’t have these resources. But
tomorrow is apt to be a very different story.
Also near the top on PISA were five countries that should come as no
surprise: Singapore, Taiwan, Finland, South Korea, and Japan. In reading,
Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and the Netherlands also did well. The
United States was, once again, in the middle of the pack in reading and
science and a bit below the international average in math. So we’re not get-
ting worse. But we’re mostly flat, and our very modest gains were trumped
by many other countries.
Plenty of experts have been pointing out this trend for a long time.
But until this news emerged we could at least pretend that China wasn’t
among the countries that presented a threat. We could treat Hong Kong
as a special case—the British legacy, combined with prosperity. We could
allow ourselves to believe that China was interested only in building dams,
buying our bonds, making fake Prada bags, underselling everybody else,
and coating our kids’ toys with toxic paint, while neglecting its education
system.
Yes, we knew they were exporting Chinese teachers to teach Mandarin
in our schools while importing native English speakers to instruct their
children in our language. But we could comfort ourselves that their cur-
riculum emphasized discipline and rote learning, not analysis or creativity.
According to this test at least, we’re not getting worse. But we’re mostly
flat, and our very modest gains were trumped by many other countries.
Will this news be the wake-up call that America needs to get serious
about educational achievement? Will it get us beyond making excuses,
bickering over who should do what, and prioritizing adults over children?
I sure hope so.
Reprinted by permission of the Wall Street Journal. © 2010 Dow Jones & Co. All rights reserved.
Eric A. Hanushek is the Paul and Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover
Institution. Paul E. Peterson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution,
the editor in chief of Education Next, and the Henry Lee Shattuck Professor of
Government and director of the Program on Education Policy and Governance
at Harvard University. Both are members of Hoover’s Koret Task Force on K–12
Education. Amanda Ripley is a Bernard L. Schwartz Fellow at the New America
Foundation.
D E M O L I S H I N G CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Hanushek, who grew up outside Cleveland and graduated from the Air
Force Academy in 1965, has the gentle voice and manner of Mr. Rog-
ers, but he has spent the past forty years calmly butchering conventional
wisdom on education. In study after study, he has demonstrated that our
assumptions about what works are almost always wrong. More money
does not tend to lead to better results; smaller class sizes do not tend to
improve learning. “Historically,” he says, “reporters call me [when] the
editor asks, ‘What is the other side of this story?’ ”
Over the years, as Hanushek has focused more on international com-
parisons, he has heard a variety of theories as to why U.S. students under-
perform so egregiously. When he started, the prevailing excuse was that
the testing wasn’t fair. Other countries were testing a more select group of
students, while we were testing everyone. That is no longer true: thanks to
better sampling techniques and other countries’ decisions to educate more
of their citizens, we’re now generally comparing apples to apples.
These days, the theory Hanushek hears most often is what we might
call the diversity excuse. When he runs into his neighbors at Palo Alto
coffee shops, they lament the condition of public schools overall but are
quick to exempt the schools their own kids attend. “In the litany of excus-
es, one explanation is always, ‘We’re a very heterogeneous society—all
Even if we treat each American state as its own country, not a single one
apples.
However haltingly, more states are finally beginning to follow the lead
of Massachusetts. At least thirty-five states and the District of Columbia
agreed this year to adopt common standards for what kids should know in
Per student, we now spend more than all but three other countries—
education.
These are troubled times for language programs in the United States.
Despite the chatter about globalization and multilateralism that has domi-
nated public discourse in recent years, these programs have been battered
by irresponsible cutbacks at all levels. Leaders in government and policy
circles continue to live in a bubble of their own making, imagining that
we can be global while refusing to learn the languages or learn about the
cultures of the rest of the world.
So it was encouraging to hear Richard Haass, president of the Council
on Foreign Relations and a fixture of the foreign policy establishment,
strongly support foreign-language learning in his keynote address last fall to
the American Council on the Teaching of Foreign Languages’ annual con-
vention. Haass is a distinguished author, educated at Oberlin and Oxford,
and an influential voice in American debates. In his talk, “Language as a
Gateway to Global Communities,” Haass recognized the important work
language instructors do as well as the crucial connection between language
and culture: language learning is not just technical mastery of grammar
but rather, in his words, a gateway to a thorough understanding of other
In Harm’s Way
How we misjudge the risks—and non-risks—of daily life. By Henry
I. Miller.
Henry I. Miller, MD, is the Robert Wesson Fellow in Scientific Philosophy and
Public Policy at the Hoover Institution.
“ C H E M I C A L S ” A S A SCARE WORD
While they indulge in such high-risk behavior, many of these people wor-
ry about activities or products that pose only de minimis, or negligible,
risks. These include contact with minuscule amounts of chemicals that
have been in widespread and safe use for decades.
But here’s the denouement that both the litigation and the film missed:
a California Cancer Registry survey released last year failed to find a dis-
proportionately high number of cancers in Hinkley. To the contrary: from
1996 to 2008, 196 cancers were identified among residents of the census
tract that includes Hinkley—more than 10 percent fewer than the 224
cancers that would have been expected, given its demographic character-
istics.
Such surveys are probably not highly accurate, but this one does tell
us that if chromium-6 in water is a human carcinogen, it’s certainly not a
potent one.
Why would this be? Here are two explanations—aside from the fact
that the state took a timeout from electing a former Mr. Universe.
First, California’s leadership is, shall we say, dated. Democrats rule the
roost; for the second time in less than a decade, not a single Republican
holds a statewide constitutional office. Of the nation-state’s four most
influential Democrats—Brown, Senators Dianne Feinstein and Bar-
bara Boxer, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi—all are septuagenar-
ians, having emerged on the California scene four decades ago or longer
(Brown’s first statewide win came in 1970, the same year Reagan ran for a
second gubernatorial term). As such, they’re hardly fonts of cutting-edge
political thought—or action heroes. No other state’s political ruling class
is as gray, a terrific irony for youth-worshiping California. Moreover, that
ruling class is also a permanent class. Last fall, amid a national wave of
anti-incumbency, not a single incumbent California legislator lost his or
her job.
Then again, a low political ceiling may work to Brown’s advantage. At
seventy-three and in no way representative of a new political movement,
Brown is hardly in a position to meddle in presidential politics. That’s
a rarity among California governors, who tend to contract “Potomac
fever”—Brown himself being the worst offender, having mounted quixot-
ic presidential campaigns in 1976 and 1980 (even Schwarzenegger caught
the national bug; though foreign-born and constitutionally barred from
national office, he waded into debates over the future of the Republi-
can Party and the rise of an independent movement). Brown might also
© UPI/Newscom/Stewart Innes
to Liberation Square. I never thought I would live to see this moment,
these people in that vast crowd. They gave me back my love of my
country.”
It will be said that this revolution is likely to be betrayed or hijacked,
that the hard-liners and the theocrats are certain to prevail at the end of
the day. The so-called “realists” will argue that this is a people without
the requisites of democracy, without the political experience to sustain a
reasonably democratic polity.
There is also a concern that the stability provided to Pax Americana by
this regime for three decades will be torn apart. But this view misses the
dark side of the bargain we made with the autocrat: we befriended him
but enraged his population. And the furies repressed by this cruel, effec-
tive cop on the banks of the Nile came America’s way.
At the end, Mubarak took pride in the claim that he would not
quit the land, would not give up his country to chaos. His apologists
even said he should be given time to write his own legacy. For a last
few days he remained deaf to the sounds of his own country, blind
to the disaffection with him and his reign. Then, when the truth of
the tumultuous world beyond the isolation of his presidential pal-
ace finally shook his indifference and disdain, his abdication became
inevitable.
The jihadists had been unable to overthrow this state, but we remem-
ber how they struck at American targets instead. Mohammed Atta
and Ayman al-Zawahiri were bred in the tyrannical republic of Hosni
Mubarak. Zawahiri, the vengeful Cairene aristocrat, was explicit about
that. He drew a distinction between what he called the “near enemy” (the
Mubarak regime) and the “far enemy”—the United States. The hatred of
America that drove Zawahiri was derivative of his hatred for the regime
that had both imprisoned and tortured him in the aftermath of the assas-
sination of Anwar Sadat.
© Chine Nouvelle/SIPA/Newscom/Ahmad Karem
America befriended the autocrat but enraged his population. And the
furies repressed by the cruel, effective cop on the banks of the Nile came
America’s way.
Ingredients for a
Lasting Democracy
Ousting an autocrat is only a start. The rules of power become just as
important as who holds it. By Larry Diamond.
What happens when the autocrat is gone? From Libya to Syria to Jordan,
people fed up with stagnation and injustice have mobilized for the kind
of democratic change witnessed in Tunisia and Egypt. Will the end of
despotism give way to chaos, as happened when Mobutu Sese Seko was
toppled in 1997 after more than thirty years in power in Zaire? Will the
military or some civilian strongman fill the void with a new autocracy, as
occurred after the overthrow in the 1950s of Arab monarchs in Egypt and
Iraq and as has been the norm in most of the world until recently? Or can
some Arab nations produce real democracy, as we saw in most of Eastern
Europe and about half the states of sub-Saharan Africa?
Regime transitions are uncertain affairs. But since the mid-1970s, more
than sixty countries have found their way to democracy. Some have done
so in circumstances of rapid upheaval that offer insight for reformers in
Tunisia, Egypt, and other Arab countries today. Here are five lessons.
An urgent priority, though, is to rewrite the rules so that free and fair
elections are possible. This must happen before democratic elections can
be held in Egypt and Tunisia, for example. In transitions toward democra-
cy, there is a strong case for including as many political players as possible.
This requires some form of proportional representation to ensure that
emerging small parties can have a stake in the new order, while minimiz-
ing the organizational advantage of the former ruling party. In the 2005
elections in Iraq, proportional representation ensured a seat at the table
for smaller minority and liberal parties that could never have won a plural-
ity in individual districts.
F I V E : I S O L A T E T HE EXTREMES
That said, not everyone can or should be brought into the new democratic
order. Prosecuting particularly venal members of a former ruling family,
such as those tied to the Philippines’ Ferdinand Marcos, Indonesia’s fallen
strongman Suharto, or now Tunisia’s Ben Ali, can be part of a larger recon-
ciliation strategy. But the circle of punishment must be drawn narrowly.
It may even help the transition to drive a wedge between a few old-regime
cronies and the bulk of the establishment, many of whom may harbor
grievances against “the family.”
A transitional government should aim for inclusion. It should test the
democratic commitment of dubious players rather than inadvertently
induce them to become violent opponents. However, groups that refuse
to renounce violence as a means of obtaining power, or that reject the
legitimacy of democracy, have no place in the new order. That provision
was part of the wisdom of the postwar German constitution.
Transitions are full of opportunists, charlatans, and erstwhile autocrats
who enter the new political field with no commitment to democracy.
When Napoleon marched his army into Berlin in 1806, he took his gener-
als to the tomb of Frederick the Great and announced, “Hats off, gentle-
men; if he were alive we wouldn’t be here.” The same could be said of the
Obama administration’s policy on Afghanistan: without Defense Secre-
tary Robert Gates, we would not be here.
Late last year the Obama administration concluded its Afghanistan
policy review, formally committing itself to prosecuting the war until
Afghan security forces are competent to undertake the work done by U.S.
and allied forces. Control of operations will gradually shift to Afghan
security forces as military commanders determine them capable of man-
aging the fight. The governments of Afghanistan and other nations pro-
viding forces aspire to complete that transition by 2014, although the
commander in Afghanistan is reluctant to promise that the target can be
met.
This outcome is diametrically opposed to the president’s intention
when he first announced the “surge” in Afghanistan more than a year
ago. Having been cornered by his own rhetoric about the “good war”
in Afghanistan recklessly under-resourced by the previous administration,
the president at that time accepted the need to increase forces. But in the
very same breath as he gave, he took away: “As commander in chief, I have
Just before the president was to decide on the review, Gates took a
The Palestinian
Proletariat
Permanent refugees, generation after generation: these are the fruit
of a U.N. agency that blocks both peace and a Palestinian state. By
Michael S. Bernstam.
For sixty years, UNRWA has been paying four generations of Palestinians
Refugee camps no longer fit into former British prime minister Clement
Attlee’s dichotomy of warfare state and welfare state. They are both.
The UNRWA charter specified that the Palestinians who lived in Brit-
ish Mandate Palestine during the years 1946–48 and who subsequently
fled in 1948–49 qualified for refugee status together with all their descen-
dants. This open-ended definition of refugees applies for generations to
come. It bestows housing, utilities, health care, education, cash allowanc-
es, emergency cash, credit, public works, and social services from cradle to
grave, with many cradles and grand-cradles along the way, to its beneficia-
ries. In practice, this means multigenerational refugee camps and ghettoes
in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, and Gaza. Close to one-third of
today’s refugees, about 1.4 million, live in fifty-nine refugee camps. There
is no room in UNRWA’s mandate and agenda for resettlement and inte-
gration. In 1959, UNRWA discarded the last remnants of such programs.
UNRWA’s mandate created, in effect, a multigenerational dependency
of an entire people—a permanent, supranational refugee welfare state
in which simply placing most Palestinians on the international dole has
extinguished incentives for work and investment. It has succeeded with
a vengeance. It has thwarted economic development, destroyed oppor-
tunities for peace in the Middle East, and created, along the way—both
integration.
This is not the right of return to a country; this is the right of return of a
Lindsay described it from the inside: “UNRWA has taken very few
steps to detect and eliminate terrorists from the ranks of its staff or its
beneficiaries, and no steps at all to prevent members of organizations such
as Hamas from joining its staff.” And again: “The agency makes no effort
to discourage supporters or members of Hamas or any other terrorist
group from joining its staff.” Indeed, of some thirty thousand UNRWA
employees, fewer than two hundred are “internationals” and the rest are
Palestinian recruits, many of whom use UNRWA facilities and equipment
to serve terrorist organizations. Since it is the claim of the right of retake
that accompanies the eternal refugee welfare state, and warfare and ter-
rorism enforce that claim, the staff of UNRWA must ultimately converge
with the terrorist paramilitary organizations. Natural selection, if you will.
Lindsay cites numerous instances from his former agency’s history. In
1975–82, UNRWA’s Siblin Vocational Training Center in Lebanon was
used for storing weapons, housing combatants, and retooling military
equipment. At this facility, education converged with military indoctrina-
tion and recruitment. UNRWA textbooks represent what Lindsay calls a
“war curriculum.” Since 1987, UNRWA schools have exhibited posters
glorifying militants and suicide bombers and served, in effect, as recruit-
ment centers. In 2000–2001, Palestinian children received military train-
ing in militarized summer camps. UNRWA vehicles and drivers periodi-
cally transported armed fighters.
A most telling example of this institutional adaptation is the conversion
of the most important humanitarian service, ambulances, into a lethal
c reat i n g a d e ma nd fo r pa up ers
This is not, of course, what the United States, Western Europe, and Israel
had in mind when they voted for UNRWA (or Stalin and his stooges when
they abstained). But institutions tend to evolve according to their own
intrinsic and devilish logic beyond the good intentions of their founders.
Malthus pointed out in his classic treatise on population that the English
Poor Laws, rather than alleviating poverty, actually reproduced, expanded,
and perpetuated it. By subsidizing poverty, they created a demand for
paupers, and demography duly provided the supply. This created the mul-
tigenerational underclass that Marx later dubbed the lumpenproletariat.
h o w t o o pe n the c ag e
UNRWA has been one of the most inhuman experiments in human his-
tory. Since UNRWA creates incentives for war and disincentives for peace,
conditions for Palestinian misery and disincentives for economic develop-
ment, it cannot be reformed and must be removed. The change in the
Palestinian incentive structure is necessary for both peace and statehood.
Palestinian sovereignty will be achieved only by liberation from UNRWA
and, like peace, cannot be truly achieved without this liberation. The first
In Syria, since 1957, Palestinian residents have had the same rights
as citizens in employment, commerce, and social services. They lack for-
mal citizenship and full property rights because the Syrian government,
in a concordat with UNRWA, committed itself to “preserve their origi-
nal nationality,” that is, to keep them trapped in their permanent refugee
status and the ensuing claim on retaking Israel. Without UNRWA, this
obstacle to integration would weaken even if the Syrian hostility toward
Israel remained intact.
Lebanon is the most difficult case. Of 414,000 registered refugees,
only 70,000 are citizens. Others do not enjoy employment rights, can-
not own land, and do not qualify for public education, health care, and
welfare. However, the transfer of the array of social and financial services
and facilities from UNRWA to the Lebanese authorities would contribute
to integration and help create jobs.
As someone who deeply appreciates what Western civilization, for all its
faults, has achieved, I puzzle over the hostility many Westerners harbor
toward their own way of life. If democracy, free markets, and the rule of
law have created unprecedented stability, affluence, and decency, why do
so many beneficiaries fail to see this?
Why, for example, does the United States, which has done so much
for human welfare, inspire such hostility? And tiny Israel, the symbol of
rejuvenation for a perpetually oppressed people—why does it engender
such passionate hatred that otherwise decent people desire to eliminate
it?
Yoram Hazony of the Shalem Center in Jerusalem offers an explana-
tion for this antagonism in a profound and implication-rich essay, “Israel
through European Eyes.”
He begins with the notion of paradigm shift developed by Thomas Kuhn
in his 1962 study, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. This influential
concept holds that scientists see their subject from within a paradigm,
a specific intellectual framework that underpins their understanding of
reality. Facts that do not fit the paradigm are overlooked or dismissed.
Kuhn reviews the history of science and shows how, in a series of scien-
tific revolutions, paradigms shifted, as from Aristotelian to Newtonian to
Einsteinian physics.
According to the new paradigm, Israel isn’t the answer to Auschwitz. The
But Hazony asserts that this paradigm has largely collapsed. The nation-
state no longer appeals; many intellectuals and political figures in Europe
see it “as a source of incalculable evil,” a view that is spreading fast.
The new paradigm, based ultimately on Immanuel Kant’s 1795 treatise
“Perpetual Peace,” advocates the abolition of nation-states and the estab-
lishment of international government. Supranational institutions such
as the United Nations and the European Union represent its ideals and
models.
Jews and the Holocaust play a strangely central role in the paradigm
shift from nation-state to multinational state. The millennial persecution
of Jews, culminating in the Nazi genocide, endowed Israel with special
purpose and legitimacy, according to the old paradigm. From the perspec-
tive of the new paradigm, however, the Holocaust represents the excesses
of a nation-state, the German one, gone mad.
Under the old nation-state paradigm, the lesson of Auschwitz was “nev-
er again,” meaning that a strong Israel was needed to protect Jews. The
Facts that do not mesh with the paradigm shift are overlooked or
dismissed.
Need one point out the error of ascribing Nazi outrages to the nation-
state? The Nazis wanted to eliminate nation-states. No less than Kant,
they dreamed of a universal state. Thus, followers of the new paradigm
mangle history.
The case of Avraham Burg shows how far the new paradigm has spread.
A former speaker of Israel’s parliament and candidate for prime minister,
he switched paradigms and wrote a book on the legacy of the Holocaust
that compares Israel to Nazi Germany. Now he wants Israelis to give up on
Israel as defender of the Jewish people. No one, Burg’s sad example sug-
gests, is immune from the new-paradigm disease.
Reprinted by permission of National Review Online. © 2010 National Review, Inc. All rights reserved.
Of Comrades and
Capos
If there’s a plot against Russia, as Vladimir Putin claims, then it’s
being carried out by those already in power. By Robert Service.
All too quickly the assets seized from dissident oligarchs ended up in the
The problem is that Putin and Medvedev—Mr. Alpha Dog and his
poodle—are products and beneficiaries of a thuggish regime. They them-
selves are thugs. Alpha Dog growls while the poodle simpers, but each has
a sharp bite. They are like eighteenth-century monarchs contemplating a
set of reforms. If they go too far too fast, an aristocratic clique may well
remove them in a coup. In today’s Russia the current badge of nobility is
the old KGB identity paper. Putin and Medvedev are jailers of the regime
but they are also its inmates.
Much that happens in Moscow is their responsibility and they deserve
the opprobrium heaped upon them by the plain-speaking Spanish pros-
ecutor. But how much faith should be placed in the U.S. ambassador’s
contention that Putin knew about the operation to assassinate Alexander
Litvinenko in London? This is much less credible. Putin is the big man
at the center of a system in which many operate—and diplomatic cables
(released by WikiLeaks) that caricature the internal reality of Russian poli-
tics fall short of penetrating analysis.
Where Russia Is
Heading
One step forward, two steps back. Can Russians ever achieve simple
normalcy? By Mark Harrison.
Where will Russia go this year? Under Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Med-
vedev, Russia is not a democracy, but neither is the government heading
back to Soviet-type totalitarianism. The absence of political competition is
not Russia’s primary problem; it is the absence of the rule of law.
Russia today has markets and private property. It is not the Soviet total-
itarian state; nor is it, strictly, a “mafia state.” That is one step forward. But
Russia’s government seeks the power to intervene at will, selectively and
at its own discretion, in markets and property relations. The government
stands above the law. The result is two steps back. You can see this clearly
in the four stories that follow.
Story number one: Russia suffered a harvest failure and nobody
died. Last summer saw a severe drought across Russia. Harvests failed
disastrously. In the Soviet past, failures on similar proportions occurred in
1932 and in 1946. When those harvests failed, there were severe regional
famines in which millions of people starved to death.
After the harvest failure of 2010, two things happened that were in
striking contrast with the Soviet past. First, no one died. Instead, when
food prices at home threatened to rise, the Russian government responded
by imposing an export ban, requiring Russian food suppliers to break their
These four stories suggest where Russia is moving: toward a state with
increased discretionary power to intervene as it chooses to control prices
and direct resources, subsidize favored interests, monitor deviance, and
lock up or kill inconvenient people. By the standards of Russia’s Soviet
past, they definitely represent one step forward. This one step is hugely
important. Russia is no longer a totalitarian state of mass mobilization and
thought police. But compared with the “normal” society that Russians
deserve, and Russia’s friends wish for, it is two steps back again.
Reprinted from Mark Harrison’s blog (http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison).
But We Insist
Not long ago, China abruptly withheld certain rare minerals from
world trade. That was just the beginning. Beware China’s shifting
“core interests.” By Jongryn Mo.
China’s new strategy could lead to trade wars in a way that earlier
Beijing must remember the benefits it has reaped from separating the
political from the economic aspects of its rise. If nothing else, counterparts
abroad will be more likely to treat Beijing with respect if they see Chinese
leaders behaving responsibly on economic policy. But foreign leaders also
should understand that if China does not change course, they may find
themselves facing unexpected economic challenges as disputes pop up in
the political sphere. The best way to preserve strategic room to maneuver
may be to look for alternatives to total economic reliance on China.
Reprinted by permission of the Wall Street Journal (Asia). © 2010 Dow Jones & Co. All rights reserved.
China at Sea
Less flashy than stealth fighters or missiles, a versatile blue-water
navy is preparing to cast China’s influence upon the waters. By
David M. Slayton and Craig Hooper.
W H A T A R E T HEY UP TO?
To date, China has dispatched its new amphibious-assault platforms to
support popular multinational maritime security initiatives, gaining valu-
able expeditionary experience and international “soft power” credibility.
the Chinese navy unilaterally project power well beyond Taiwan and the
P E R I L S I N O CEANIA
People of Chinese ethnicity have long dwelt in the Pacific. But as China
opened three decades ago, an estimated 200,000 Chinese migrants left the
mainland to settle in South Pacific islands. These lands were economically
moribund and had fragile governments. Over the intervening years, the
Chinese migrants thrived while resisting assimilation, establishing thriving,
culturally separate Chinatowns and ethnically exclusive business networks.
The first tentative Chinese efforts to project amphibious power will come
thousands of people, broke out in May 2009. At least four people were
The islands are on a collision course. A stronger China will not read-
ily tolerate chronic anti-Chinese ethnic violence, and yet, in the Pacific
Basin, continued immigration by Chinese, resource depletion, sea-level
rise, and institutional corruption make ethnic violence a certainty.
© USMC/Lance Cpl. J. J. Harper
G O I N G A S H O RE—AND STAYING?
Continued anti-Chinese violence in the Pacific Basin will land the United
States, France, and other Pacific allies in a political quandary. The modern
precedent is set: when U.S. or other Western nationals are threatened,
U.S. Marines appear off the coast, ready to help with security or evacua-
tions. And when nationals are in peril, America sometimes dispenses with
pattern the world must expect to emerge again. To date, the calibrated
passivity on the part of the United States, Australia, Japan, and other key
beneficiaries of Pacific stability seems to have only whetted the Chinese
appetite for added maritime Lebensraum.
T H E P A C I F I C NEEDS A NATO
The United States has little time left to engage like-minded Pacific allies
and forge a viable strategic plan for the region. Without dedicated,
high-level attention and continued multiparty efforts to update security
arrangements, China will eventually find an opening to gain a permanent
foothold somewhere in Oceania.
The first step for the United States is to deploy diplomats. The region
is overdue for a diplomatic surge. While the former Cold War battlefield
of France is host to eight State Department offices, Washington manages
outright annexation.
Charles Blahous is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and one of two
public trustees for the Social Security and Medicare programs. Ryan Streeter is
editor of ConservativeHome USA.
“Four or five years later, we’re on the hook for much bigger tax burdens.”
Streeter: Let’s say Congress enacted the perfect Social Security reform
bill tomorrow. Which part of the American population would be most
negatively affected, and what can they do to prepare themselves?
Blahous: No question on this one: high-income Americans. Every sin-
gle plan will hit them disproportionately. Plans from the right do it by
constraining the growth of their benefits; plans from the left would raise
their taxes. But both sides of the aisle are trying to protect people on
the low-income end, which means people on the high-income end will
pay the price of getting to solvency. So high-income Americans should
prepare themselves to either depend less on Social Security or contribute
more to it.
They can also provide a signal to legislators indicating what they really
care about. The left believes that high-income Americans will withdraw
a little savings in order to head off the mounting tax burdens now facing
their kids.”
Streeter: If you were a newly elected member of Congress and you had
promised voters you would do something about America’s entitlement
crisis, what would you do upon arriving in your office?
Blahous: First, contain any immediate damage. Any spending increases
that haven’t gone into effect (some of which were recently legislated in the
health care bill) need to be stopped before there is a dependency on them.
It’s very hard to slow down spending once people already depend on it.
The logical place to start is with spending that hasn’t become entrenched.
Second, signal a willingness to work on a Social Security deal that con-
tains cost growth, possibly including a close look at the fiscal commission’s
recommendations.
Third, reassess the federal government’s myriad actions that fuel health
care cost inflation, including everything from government-subsidized
insurance to ages of eligibility to tax preferences for compensation in the
form of health benefits.
Reprinted by permission of the blog ConservativeHome USA (www.conservativehome.com). All rights
reserved.
The Audacity of
Gimmicks
Hoover fellow Richard A. Epstein knew Barack Obama when he
was teaching at the University of Chicago. Obama has the right
temperament for intellectual poker, Epstein believes, but is stuck
with a bad hand. By Nick Gillespie.
Nick Gillespie, Reason : We’re two years into Obama’s presidency, and
he’s managed so far to post an even worse record than George W. Bush.
The economy has lost 3.3 million jobs, consumer confidence is at half of
its historical average, unemployment is over 9 percent and has been that
way for well over a year. To what extent is Obama responsible for this?
Richard Epstein: Well, I think certainly he added another nail to the
coffin. At least the early George Bush and Obama have a lot in common.
The difference between them, which is why Obama is the more danger-
ous man ultimately, is he has very little by way of a skill set to understand
the kinds of complex problems that he wants to address, but he has this
unbounded confidence in himself.
Gillespie: He is the perfect Chicago faculty member.
Epstein: No, he wasn’t on the faculty. He was actually a very bad Chicago
faculty member in this sense: to the extent that he was an adjunct and
Richard A. Epstein is the Peter and Kirsten Bedford Senior Fellow at the
Hoover Institution and a member of Hoover’s John and Jean De Nault Task Force
on Property Rights, Freedom, and Prosperity. He is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor
of Law at New York University Law School and a senior lecturer at the University
of Chicago. Nick Gillespie is editor in chief of Reason.tv and Reason.com.
economy runs as well when you have all these peaks and valleys inside
the operation.”
Gillespie: What do you think the odds are on the legal challenge work-
ing to invalidate ObamaCare?
Epstein: Twenty percent, I would say, 25, but this is up from 5–10 per-
cent. But I do think that as the politics become more controversial and the
unpopularity of the plan becomes more evident, the willingness of judges
to entertain novel arguments will increase and therefore the odds will start
to move up.
Gillespie: Let’s talk about financial reform. In July, Obama signed the
Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Act. Will this bill make good on claims
“One of the terrible things in the Obama administration is they will not
‘let nature take its course’ by constantly trying to fend off foreclosures,
The theory of the statute is, well, just raise your rates to your custom-
ers, as if you could do that. But unfortunately, all banks with under $10
billion in assets are exempt from the statute. We know what the market
looks like—if you raise your rates, you will lose your customers in droves.
So we are basically between a rock and a hard place, and the challenge is to
take the price restrictions on the one hand and the alternatives of unregu-
lated firms on the other, and you have a confiscatory/regulatory scheme.
We filed that case and I actually think it’s a pretty solid case. It’s unlike
the health care situation. These costs are very carefully analyzed and so
forth. The program is certainly going to create absolute chaos inside the
market and everybody knows that, and I think the constitutional chal-
lenges will win. I don’t think that constitutional challenges are likely to
win to the two-tier stuff that you see with respect to the rest of Dodd-
Frank—big banks that are too big to fail going in one area.
Gillespie: It definitely won’t inoculate us from—
Epstein: Nothing will inoculate us. These banks are insanely large. To
just give you a perspective, TCF is a pretty big bank—they have $18 bil-
“These guys impose these regulations like they are candy going down the
throat of a two-year-old.”
A Most Ingenious
Trick
Matt Ridley, author of The Rational Optimist, insists that we humans
must face the truth about ourselves—no matter how good it might
be. An interview with Peter Robinson.
Peter Robinson: A former science and technology editor for the Econo-
mist magazine, Matt Ridley is a journalist and a best-selling author whose
many books include Genome: The Autobiography of a Species in 23 Chapters.
His most recent book is The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves.
Matt Ridley, thank you for joining us.
Matt Ridley: Thank you for having me on the show, Peter.
Robinson: I’m going to quote over and over again from The Rational
Optimist:
“Human progress has been a good thing and the world is as good a place
to live as it has ever been for the average human being. Richer, healthier,
and kinder, too.” So this is where the optimism comes in.
Ridley: That’s right.
Robinson: The book has been out for several months now. Have you had
any occasion to retreat from that assertion?
Ridley: Well, it contains the claim that the amount of oil spilled in the
ocean is down 90 percent since the 1970s. There was a big oil spill almost
immediately after the book came out . . . but you know, the trend is still
Peter Robinson is the editor of the Hoover Digest, the host of Uncommon
Knowledge, and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. Matt Ridley is the
author of The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves (HarperCollins, 2010).
“Globally, the number of people killed in wars is down, per capita income
lifetime.”
People think, “Well, OK, we’ve expanded lifespan, but only at the
expense of a lot of painful and miserable years at the end of life.” Actually,
that’s not true. Go and talk to most people in their eighties; they’re hav-
ing a great time. The evidence is that we’re compressing morbidity. We’re
spending a longer time living and a shorter time dying.
Robinson: That’s healthier. What about richer?
Ridley: Per capita income is the easiest measure. In real terms, it’s trebled
for the average citizen of the world since the late 1950s. The enrichment
of China is really the most extraordinary demographic and economic
phenomenon; India as well. Because not only is the world getting more
prosperous, there are more people joining the middle class and the world
is getting less unequal. Inequality is probably increasing in China because
some people are getting very rich, and it may be increasing in this country,
but it’s decreasing globally because the Chinese are getting richer faster
than the Americans. The poor people are getting richer faster than the
rich people.
Robinson: The third of these attributes: life is kinder. That’s harder to
argue, isn’t it?
Ridley: Well, look at charitable giving. It’s rising faster than GDP in
countries like the United States and Britain. Look at homicide: your
chances of being a victim of homicide were about ten times what they
are now in Europe in the Middle Ages. It’s been declining steadily ever
since. Look at the kinds of things that we don’t tolerate nowadays that
we thought routine before: slavery, racial prejudice, gender prejudice, you
know. We’re much less tolerant of unkindness now, and that’s a measure of
how much nicer we are. On the whole, there’s an awful lot wrong with life,
but it’s not that unkind compared with what it was in the past.
“I’m kind of writing this to a version of myself thirty years ago, saying,
‘Here’s the book I wish I’d been able to read in the 1970s.’ ”
Robinson: Right.
Ridley: And you can do that by either becoming a king or becoming a
thief or some such version—even a bureaucrat, actually.
Robinson: I’m pretty willing to argue that your book suggests a par-
ticular, classically liberal point of view. Adam Smith was the first rational
optimist of whom I’m aware. You’re arguing, “Look, if we can have free
markets and limited government, we can get this cornucopia of goods and
services, of virtues being developed, but we must resist tyrannical govern-
ment, we must resist a kind of throwback to the old tribe, the Volk of Hit-
ler.” So this is pretty much an argument for limited government. You are
a tea party man, you just haven’t been told that yet. What do you reckon?
Ridley: To some extent, yes, I think there is an old-fashioned human
nature in us that wants to stab people in the back and plunder. We find
various ways of keeping that under control. And if you look at the story of
the twentieth century, do you end up concluding that there was too much
government or too little government? After a century with Mao and Hitler
and Stalin and Pol Pot and Mugabe and Mobutu and so on, it’s hard to
engage in trade—to grow things or make things and swap them—and the
“If you look at the story of the twentieth century, do you end
government?”
Ten, twenty years ago, and still in a lot of places, people go on about
exponential, uncontrolled population growth. It ain’t happening. It’s slow-
ing down. Population growth globally has gone from 2 percent to 1 per-
cent in my lifetime. It’s going to hit naught percent sometime between
2050 and 2075, by the look of it, although things could change. But he’s
right about what that means in terms of a rapidly aging population in
some parts of the world. We’re going to have fewer working people to pay
for the benefits that support older people. But in a sense, I’m just simply
saying that the aging population and the declining birthrate are a lot easier
to deal with than the exploding population we thought we were going to
have.
Robinson: We keep coming back to the puzzle: why is everybody whinge-
ing and whining so much? Mark Steyn, for example, would argue that
Children on welfare have only about half as many words per day directed
at them as the children of working-class families—and fewer than one-
third as many words as children whose parents are professionals. This is
especially painful in view of the fact that scientists have found that the
physical development of the brain is affected by how much interaction
young children receive.
Even if all children entered the world with equal innate ability, by the
time they were grown they would nevertheless have very different mental
capabilities. Innate ability is the ability that exists at the moment of con-
ception, but nobody applies for a job or college admission at the moment
of conception. Even between conception and birth, other influences affect
the development of the brain as well as the rest of the body.
The mother’s diet and her intake of alcohol or drugs affects the unborn
child. Differences in the amount of nutrition received in the womb cre-
ate differences even between identical twins. Where one of these identical
twins is born significantly heavier than the other, and the lighter one falls
below some critical weight, the heavier one tends to have a higher IQ in
later years. They may be the same weight when they become adults, but
Thomas Sowell is the Rose and Milton Friedman Senior Fellow on Public
Policy at the Hoover Institution.
changed and the script was modified, but until the final phase the basic
pattern remained the same. In that final act of this drama, the two external
superpowers whose rivalry dominated the Middle East were the Soviet
Union and the United States. In their purposes and their methods, they
were very different, both from their predecessors and from each other.
Future historians of the region may well agree on a new convention—
that the era in Middle Eastern history that was opened by Napoleon and
Nelson was closed by George H. W. Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev. In the
crisis of 1990–91 precipitated by Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait,
It’s very difficult to forsake the habits not just of a lifetime but of a whole
era of history.
H A BI T S O F D E P ENDENCE
In the historical interlude between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the ter-
ror attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001, Russia was out
of the game and likely to remain so for some years to come; America was
reluctant to return. This meant that in many significant respects the situ-
ation reverted to what it was before. Outside powers had interests in the
region, both strategic and economic; they could from time to time inter-
fere in Middle Eastern affairs or even influence their course. But their role
was no longer to be one of domination or decision.
Many in the Middle East had difficulty adjusting themselves to the
new situation created by the departure of the imperial powers. For the
first time in almost two hundred years, the rulers and to some extent the
peoples of the Middle East were being forced to accept final responsibil-
ity for their own affairs, recognize their own mistakes, and accept the
consequences. This was difficult to internalize, even to perceive, after so
long a period. For the entire lifetimes of those who formulate and conduct
power, albeit in a more subtle form, often seems to guide both analysis
and policy.
The assault of 9/11 was surely intended as the opening salvo of a war of
terror that would continue until its objectives were obtained—that is, the
eviction of the United States from the world of Islam and, most impor-
tant, the overthrow of the Arab regimes seen by the West as friendly and
by Al-Qaeda and many of their own subjects as renegades from Islam and
puppets of America. But rather than head for the exits, America was to dig
in for a deeper presence in Arab and Islamic lands. If this was imperialism,
it was imperialism of a defensive kind.
Those who accuse the West and more particularly the United States of
imperialist designs on the Middle East are tilting against shadows from
the past. There is, however, another charge with more substance—that
of cultural penetration. American culture differs from all its predecessors
in two important respects. First, it is independent of political control and
extends far beyond the areas of American political dominance or even
R I V A L I D E O L OGIES
Today, increasing numbers of Middle Easterners, disillusioned with past
ideals and—in many countries—alienated from their present rulers, are
turning their thoughts or their loyalties to one or other of two ideologies:
liberal democracy and Islamic fundamentalism. Each offers a reasoned
diagnosis of the ills of the region and a prescription for its cure.
In this struggle, fundamentalism disposes of several advantages. It uses
language that is familiar and intelligible, appealing to the vast mass of the
population in a Muslim country. At a time of economic deprivation, social
dislocation, and political oppression, many are ready to believe that these
evils are a result of alien and infidel machinations and that the remedy
is a return to the original, authentic way of Islam. The fundamentalists
also have an immense advantage over other opposition groups in that the
mosques and their personnel provide them with a network for meeting
and communication that even the most tyrannical governments cannot
Saudi financier and jihadist Osama bin Laden was sure of the weakness
B E TT E R L I V E S A ND BETTER GOVERNANCE
The choice between democracy and fundamentalism will also be pro-
foundly influenced by the pace, or lack, of economic betterment. Democ-
racy and tolerance come easier to the affluent than to the indigent. There
is a related crossroads: between outward and inward modernization. Out-
ward modernization means accepting the devices, the amenities, and the
conveniences provided by Western science and industry while rejecting
what are seen as pernicious Western values. All too often, this means also
The success of [the Zionists’] scheme will involve inevitably the raising
of the present Arab population to their own material level, only a little
The Middle East’s window of opportunity will not remain open for-
ever. Even when its oil and its transit routes, so crucial in the past, are out-
dated by modern technology and communications, the Middle East will
still be important—as the junction of three continents, the center of three
religions, a strategic asset or danger to be coveted or feared. Sooner or later
it will again become an object of interest to outside powers—old powers
reviving, new powers emerging. If it continues on its present course, the
region, lacking the capacities of India and China on the one side or the
technology of Europe and America on the other, will once again be a stake
rather than a player in the great game of international politics.
The study of Islamic history and of the vast and rich Islamic political
literature encourages the belief that it may well be possible to develop
democratic institutions—not necessarily according to our Western defi-
nition of that much-misused term but according to one deriving from
the Middle East’s own history and culture and ensuring, in their way,
limited government under law, consultation, and openness in a civilized
and humane society. There is enough in the traditional culture of Islam,
on the one hand, and the modern experience of the Muslim peoples, on
the other, to provide the basis for an advance toward freedom in the true
sense of the word.
But if freedom fails and terror triumphs, the peoples of Islam will be
the first and greatest victims. They will not be alone, and many others will
suffer with them.
Excerpted from The End of Modern History in the Middle East, by Bernard Lewis (Hoover Institution Press,
2011). © 2011 The Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved.
active duty. He was deployed seven times, including four combat tours of
Iraq. He went to Kosovo, to the Southwestern United States for an anti-
drug operation, and to Haiti. He taught American politics at the United
States Military Academy at West Point and served as a congressional fel-
low with Representative Jerry Lewis of California, the chairman of the
Defense Appropriations Subcommittee.
He holds a master’s degree in public administration and a doctorate in
government from Cornell University. Gibson and his wife, Mary Jo, a
licensed clinical social worker, live in Kinderhook—birthplace of Presi-
dent Martin Van Buren—with their three children, Katie, Maggie, and
Connor.
Once a Marine,
Always a Marine
It’s been more than sixty years since he helped capture Iwo Jima, but
Hoover fellow Richard T. Burress tells his old unit that some things
never change. By Christopher C. Starling.
Only days after Pearl Harbor, Richard T. Burress was among the thou-
sands of young men crowding into recruiting offices, determined to enlist.
A sophomore in college, the Nebraskan had gone to a dance on a Satur-
day night and awoken the next day to find the nation at war. Told that
the Japanese had bombed Pearl Harbor, “I said, ‘I always knew they’d hit
the Philippines!’ ” he joked recently. A native Nebraskan, “I’d never seen
either ocean. I’d never been as far as Chicago.” He would soon travel much
farther.
Burress, a Hoover senior fellow, rekindled memories of his wartime
service in a recent visit with his old unit, the First Battalion, Twenty-Third
Marines. In 1945, he was a fresh second lieutenant leading First Platoon,
Baker Company, into battle at Iwo Jima—a “four-day mission” that
turned into more than a month of combat. At twenty-one, he was among
four hundred replacement officers quickly trained for the assaults on Iwo
and Okinawa. Sixty-seven years later, Burress briefly rejoined his unit at
Camp Pendleton, where Marines in combat gear cheered and applauded
© USMC/Col. Christopher C. Starling
The Nicolas de Basily Room is among the hidden gems of the Hoover
Institution and a token of its illustrious history. The artwork, sculptures,
furniture, and historical mementos carefully arranged in this secluded,
celadon-colored room were described in a booklet published by the Hoover
Institution Press in 1972 and written by the donor herself, Madame de
Basily. But the room’s distinctive origins merit more than a booklet, as the
room has been an integral part of the institution’s activities for more than
three decades.
This story begins with a unique gift to the institution by the widow of
Nicolas de Basily, Lascelle Meserve de Basily. Her gift, made in 1964 and
following the loss of her husband the previous year, consisted of his per-
sonal papers and his entire seven-thousand-volume library, which includes
many rare first editions in Russian, as well as long out-of-print books on
the history of Russian painting.
Two years later, she decided that the couple’s entire collection of paint-
ings and objets d’art belonged with her earlier gift. Today, her husband’s
© Stanford Visual Art Services/Steven Gladfelder
papers and library are part of the institution’s rich holdings on the Russian
Revolution and imperial Russia. Those holdings include the records of
That the Basilys were astute and discerning collectors is hardly a sur-
prise, because their education and backgrounds made connoisseurs of
them both.
Nicolas de Basily, born in 1883, was the aristocratic son and grandson
of imperial Russian diplomats. His father had served as undersecretary
in the imperial ministry of foreign affairs, and Nicolas himself, educated
Russian materials.
A B A N K E R ’ S B E AUTIFUL DAUGHTER
In the Paris of 1919 Basily, for the second time in his life, met Lascelle
Meserve, who was to become his wife later in the year. She had been
born in the United States in 1890 and brought up in Paris and elsewhere
in Europe, where she became fluent in French, German, Russian, and
English.
She was named after her grandmother of English ancestry and became
the stepdaughter of H. Fessenden Meserve, the eighth generation of an
English family that came to America in 1673, and a graduate of the Har-
vard class of 1888. Her ancestry and travels with her parents gave her a
unique and unusually broad perspective on both the old and the new
worlds, one that was attractive to and appreciated by her future husband.
She was, in addition, strikingly beautiful, as her wedding photograph on
display in the de Basily Room illustrates.
By the time she was first introduced to Nicolas de Basily in 1917 at the
opera in St. Petersburg, she had already been educated in Paris, had lived
in North Korea (where her father directed a gold-mining company on
fifty square miles close to the Manchurian border), and had traveled the
Trans-Siberian railway in Russia when her father was vice president of the
National City Bank of New York for Europe (later, the First National City
Bank), a period when he oversaw the war loans—the bond issues—made
by that bank to the Imperial Russian government (1915–17).
Meserve’s work included opening branches of the bank in St. Peters-
burg and Moscow. The revolution of 1917, however, brought an abrupt
Nicolas de Basily drafted the abdication decree for Nicholas II, the last
czar. Annotated copies of all five of the drafts are in the Hoover Archives.
C O L L E C T I N G MEMORIES
In the 1920s, the revolutionary Russian government began divesting itself
of its great paintings housed in the storerooms of the Hermitage in St.
Petersburg and, along with pieces of fine French furniture, sold them at
auctions abroad. The core of the collection assembled by Catherine the
Great—namely, Western European masters—was removed from the Her-
mitage and acquired, via an agent, by Andrew Mellon. Today, these acqui-
sitions are housed in the National Gallery in Washington, D.C.
At the same time, Basily, with the help of a representative and undoubt-
edly with the financial support of his wife and father-in-law, began col-
lecting artworks of Russian painters of the eighteenth century, little
known outside Russia. Some he purchased in Berlin and in Paris, others
in New York, over a period of two decades. The Basilys thus formed the
The Basilys never returned to Russia, they never had children, and they
Nicolas de Basily died at the age of eighty in 1963, his heart full of
memories of a lost world. He had been forced first to flee his homeland
and then to leave his adopted home, Paris. He had succeeded, however, in
writing a history of Soviet Russia, published in Europe in four languages
in 1938. Titled Russia under Soviet Rule, it was noted for its descriptions
of the last days of imperial Russia and was awarded a prize by the Acadé-
mie Française. He was, in addition, recognized as a Commander of the
© Hoover Archives
My husband loved these paintings deeply. They were all that remained of
his lost country. . . . Today he would be happy—as I am—to know that
at the other end of the world these beloved treasures are now tended by
understanding hearts and hands.
Nicolas de Basily’s Russia under Soviet Rule, written in exile, was noted
for its descriptions of the last days of imperial Russia. It was awarded a
Board of Overseers
Marc L. Abramowitz Herbert M. Dwight
Victoria (Tory) Agnich William C. Edwards
Frederick L. Allen Gerald E. Egan
Esmail Amid-Hozour Leonard W. Ely
Jack R. Anderson Charles H. (Chuck) Esserman
Martin Anderson Jeffrey A. Farber
Javier Arango Clayton W. Frye Jr.
George L. Argyros Stephen B. Gaddis
Robert G. Barrett James G. Gidwitz
Frank E. Baxter Cynthia Fry Gunn
Donald R. Beall Arthur E. Hall, CFA
Stephen D. Bechtel Jr. F. Philip Handy
Peter B. Bedford Everett J. Hauck
Peter S. Bing W. Kurt Hauser
Joanne Whittier Blokker John L. Hennessy*
William K. Blount Warner W. Henry
James J. Bochnowski Heather R. Higgins
Wendy H. Borcherdt Kenneth H. Hofmann
William K. Bowes Margaret Hoover
Richard W. Boyce Allan Hoover III
C. Preston Butcher Preston B. Hotchkis
Richard Call Philip Hudner
James J. Carroll III Leslie P. Hume*
Robert H. Castellini William J. Hume
Joan L. Danforth Walter E. Hussman Jr.
Paul L. Davies Jr. George B. James II
Paul Lewis (Lew) Davies III Gail A. Jaquish
John B. De Nault Charles B. Johnson
Kenneth T. Derr Mark Chapin Johnson
Dixon R. Doll Franklin P. Johnson Jr.
Susanne Fitger Donnelly Tom Jordan
Joseph W. Donner Steve Kahng
William H. Draper III Mary Myers Kauppila
The Economy
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Labor
Education
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Israel
Russia
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Interviews
Values
Hoover Archives
2011 . NO. 2
T H E H O O V E R I N S T I T U T I O N • S TA N F O R D U N I V E R S I T Y