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The condition that the null hypothesis is false only tells us that the
mean is not equal to 130. If we want to compute β , we need to
specify a value for µ . Suppose that we want to determine the
probability of making a Type II error when, in actual fact, µ =
135, 131, 139, and/or any other value.
1
A Windmill Example:
H0: A ≤ 20
HA: A > 20
But suppose that a site where the wind velocity is greater than or
equal to 25 mph is extremely profitable. To judge the effectiveness
2
of this test (to determine if our selection of α = 0.01 and n = 50 is
appropriate), we compute the probability of committing this error.
Our task is to calculate β when µ = 25. (Assume that we know
that (σ = 12 mph.)
3
This is the graph for β associated with numbers from 18 to 32.5:
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
This means that, when the mean wind velocity is 25 mph, there is a
26.76% probability of erroneously concluding that the site is not
profitable. If this probability is considered too large, we can
reduce it by either increasing α or increasing n.
4
22.17 25 -2.83 1.697 -1.67 0.4525 0.0475
22.17 25.5 -3.33 1.697 -1.96 0.4750 0.0250
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
25
With α = 0.10, however, the probability of building on a site that
is not profitable is too large.
5
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Now both α and β are quite small, but the cost of sampling has
increased.
6
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
ASSIGNMENT: