Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
1
The BRIC countries refer to Brazil, Russia, India and China. Refers to GDP growth
weighted with purchasing power parity (PPP). In dollar terms, the BRIC countries
accounted for nearly half of global growth.
150
100
50
2000m01 2002m01 2004m01 2006m01 2008m01 2010m01
This represents a slight upward revision from our January We have revised our
forecast. In the US, the recovery has gained a firmer footing at January forecast
the same time that the country has been reluctant to face up to upward by a total of
its need for tighter fiscal policy and appears to be more focused 0.3 percentage points
on next year's presidential election. The euro zone and the UK for 2011 and 2012
are being adversely affected by higher inflation and their
upcoming decision to tighten monetary policy earlier.
Japan’s GDP growth will decline this year due to the catastrophe,
but will increase next year when reconstruction begins. Russia is
benefitting from the rise in oil prices, but at the same time is
struggling with higher domestic inflation. China, India and Brazil
continue to grow strongly, but have slowed compared with last
year now that their policies are no longer stimulating the
economy to the same extent. On page 19 we go into more detail
on developments in individual countries.
In our main scenario, we assume that the economy and There are several
politicians will be able to handle the challenges of the Japanese reasons why the global
disaster, the wave of democratisation in the Middle East and the economy is slowing
debt crisis reasonably well. The question in this case is why the compared with 2010
global economy won’t manage to maintain last year's GDP
growth?
The nuclear disaster affects the need for other energy sources as Public opinion about
well as public opinion about nuclear power and investments in nuclear power could
new plants. It is also affected the political debate in Germany change entirely
after losses by the CDU and FDP in the regional election in
Baden-Württemberg, owing in large part to the nuclear power
issue. Several countries now want to delay any expansion to
further evaluate safety concerns. In the long-term uncertainty
about nuclear power could lead to higher energy prices and new,
innovative technologies.
The wave of democratisation in the Middle East could continue The rise of
for several years, affecting the region’s economy, geopolitical democracies in the
security and global oil supplies. The upheaval that began in Middle East will
Tunisia and Egypt and has spread to Libya, Bahrain, Yemen and eventually create new
Syria will hurt growth prospects short-term, but could create business opportunities
higher growth potential over time, which would also benefit
investors in other parts of the world.
The effects on the global economy are mainly tied to the price of At this point the focus
oil. The West would like to see democratisation, but is most is on the region's role
concerned about the predictability of oil production. There are as an oil producer
political risks as well, such as NATO's involvement in the civil war
in Libya as well as relations with China and Russia. Furthermore,
Israel’s position in the region is affected by the new power
structure in Egypt. The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran
could also rise to the surface and create tensions in the oil
market. Political instability in the Middle East makes investors in
other emerging countries cognizant of the political risks they face.
“Stable” China in particular could be affected by increased risk
aversion.
If oil prices rise above current levels and reach USD 120-150 a The more oil prices
barrel, there is a greater risk that other commodities, inflation rise above the current
expectations and inflation at the consumer price level will all rise level, the greater the
as well, in addition to earlier-than-expected increases in policy risk to global growth
interest rates and slower growth. Higher cost pressures on
companies reduce their ability to invest and recruit. Households
will see their wallets shrink, which will hold back consumption.
The effects of higher commodity prices could threaten the global A public debt crisis
recovery. At the same time we regard the debt crisis in the connected to the
advanced economies as a more difficult hurdle to overcome. The banking sector could
impact could be felt in both the short and longer term. Risks can create a new financial
be tied to politics, to the economy and to financial markets. This crisis and recession
could give rise to new recessions and deflation, and once you
have fallen into the water jump it can be hard to get up.
In the US, the national debt is nearing 100% of GDP, yet the The longer the US
country seems to have put off any comprehensive measures, waits to seriously
probably until after the presidential election in 2012. The budget tackle its debt, the
deficit exceeds 10% this year. The longer the US waits to agree greater the risks
to a more ambitious medium-term plan across party lines, the
greater the risk for the dollar, for long-term interest rates and for
confidence in the US economy.
Reforming the current global order is another long-term New financial crises
challenge. If it doesn’t happen, new financial crises could arise are a greater
more quickly and with a greater impact than otherwise would be possibility if the world
the case. There is still a lack of efficient institutions to detect, order isn't working
manage and coordinate measures in the event of a crisis.
Countries are acting out of national interests, and rarely are
regulations created that work equitably across national borders.
The G7 countries, G20 countries, International Monetary Fund
(IMF), World Bank, World Trade Organization (WTO) and
Emerging countries led by China and India are demanding new The global order has to
international alliances. China would prefer not to see the dollar as adapt to new global
a reserve currency any longer, but hasn’t yet taken responsibility players like China and
as a growing economy for developing a viable currency that can India
be used outside its borders. With continued currency tensions
and many emerging currencies rigidly pegged to the dollar, there
is a risk that savings imbalances could again create financial
crises. This hurdle, the last on the track, will take time to
overcome. If it isn’t, the global economy won't reach the finish
line!
Alternative scenarios:
Commodity markets
Commodity prices have risen markedly in the last half year. One There were several
reason is the stronger economy, which is raising demand for raw reasons for the rise in
materials. Another is supply problems. Droughts and fires have commodity prices
reduced food production. A third reason is quantitative easing,
which has increased liquidity and investor interest in
commodities. A fourth reason is that inflation concerns have
driven up the price of gold and other metals. The relatively weak
dollar is also contributing to higher commodity prices, since
producers are demanding compensation for the weaker dollar.
Lastly, the democratisation process in the Middle East has
created uncertainty about future oil production, which has raised
oil prices despite that supplies haven’t yet decreased.
In our January forecast we assumed that oil would reach USD 85 We assume an oil
this year and USD 90 next year. We expect the current price of price of USD 105 this
USD 115 a barrel to drop when uncertainty about the Middle East year and USD 98 next
eases, the pace of the global recovery slows slightly and the year
temporary effects of the cold weather subside. Our forecast is
that the price of oil will reach an average of USD 105 this year
and fall to USD 98 next year. The risk in these assumptions is on
the upside, since concerns about oil production in the Middle
East could be deeper and more long-lasting than we have
assumed. Replacing nuclear energy with gas, oil and coal could
prove necessary after the catastrophe in Japan, and could lead
to a continuation of the upward trend in oil prices.
Commodity prices, total, food prices and commodity prices excluding oil (index)
175
Total commodity price, excl oil
150
125
Index
75
50 Food prices
25
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
The long-term price trend should point upward, since many low
and middle income countries are growing quickly and expanding
their infrastructure. The question, however, is whether we will see
Food production has been affected by weather conditions, which Metal and food prices
could occur again in future years, although we see signs that new continue to rise, but
agricultural acreage is now being added to boost supply, which not as quickly as last
reduces the risk that food prices will increase as quickly. As with year
metal prices, we expect food prices to continue to rise but at a
slower rate. The risks are how much of food production can
replace energy production and – like always – weather impacts.
17,5
15,0 India
12,5
10,0 China
Percent
7,5
Brazil
5,0
2,5 UK
US
0,0 Germany
Japan
-2,5
08 09 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
China has had problems with drought as well, in addition to China’s high inflation
higher import prices on the heels of rising global commodity rate is due to both
prices. The inflow of capital as well as negative real interest rates domestic and external
and rapid credit growth have also driven inflation, which for many factors
is considerably higher than official figures show. The
administration is now trying to mitigate the price increase, but has
been tardy in its attempts to tighten monetary policy. A stronger
currency appreciation would help to slow the rise in import prices,
but should be in real rather than nominal terms by increasing
wages and prices faster than in the rest of the world. This raises
the risk of higher inflation through the labour market. Inflation will
exceed China’s comfort level of 3% throughout the forecast
period.
To date the UK has been concerned about higher inflation, The policy mix is
despite weak domestic demand. Rising import prices, a weaker becoming especially
pound and VAT hikes are driving the price increases. Inflation will difficult in the UK
subside, but it could take time and require interest rate hikes
earlier than desirable from the standpoint of the economy’s
recovery.
The euro zone’s inflation will slightly exceed the target in 2011.
The ECB is expected to begin raising its benchmark rate as early
as this spring, which could put the recovery at risk in a region
where structural debt and financial sector problems weigh
heavily.
The US is also seeing rising energy and food prices, but core
inflation remains low. This will give the Federal Reserve a respite
for its monetary policy, which the administration in particular is
hoping for, when the quantitative easing (QE2) runs its course
this summer.
To date only a limited number of central banks in developed Major central banks
countries have begun raising their benchmark rates, including haven’t raised rates
Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Poland and Sweden. yet …
The Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US, European Central Bank
(ECB), Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ), on the
other hand, have taken a wait-and-see approach. Among
emerging countries, all the BRIC countries have raised theirs, but
to a lesser extent than what would have been needed to quickly
mitigate inflation.
5
4
3
2
1 US Sweden
Japan
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
The ECB has signalled that its first rate hike will come in April. Its … but the ECB is
main concern is that higher inflation expectations and the expected to begin
second-hand effects of higher import prices could create raising as soon as
problems further down the road. To a lesser extent it is worried April
that the recovery will lose steam in debt-laden countries. By
raising rates, the ECB is also placing greater pressure on
countries to implement structural reforms.
The next central bank to ease off the gas should be the BOE,
which will raise rates after the summer to tame uncomfortably
We expect the Federal Reserve to put off any rate hikes until
next year, probably the spring. Its focus is on how the phase-out
of the quantitative easing (which we expect in June) will affect
various markets. The key is to ensure that economic recovery is
firmly entrenched. Late last fall its rhetoric changed to prepare
the market for the first rate hike a few months later.
Policy Interest rates 28-mar-11 30-jun-11 31-dec-11 30-jun-12 31-dec-12
Federal Reserve 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,00 1,50
ECB 1,00 1,25 1,75 2,25 2,50
Bank of England 0,50 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00
Bank of Japan 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10
Long-term interest rates have trended higher since Fed Long-term interest
Chairman Ben Bernanke announced a second round of rates have trended
quantitative easing (QE2) last fall. The intended aim was to higher since last fall –
reduce interest rates, but that hasn't been fully achieved. Instead despite the Fed's
the focus has shifted to inflation and the declining dollar. A Treasury purchases
continued recovery and generally higher inflation in the global
economy as laid out in our main scenario, as well as the
continued need to finance relatively large budget deficits in
several countries for a while longer, would suggest that long-term
interest rates will continue to track higher.
3,5 Germany
3,0 US
2,5
2,0 Japan
1,5
1,0
0,5
06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Nominal exchange rates in relation to the US dollar, index 9 August 2007 = 100
170
160
Brazilean Re
150 Swedish Krona
Korean Won
140
Euro
130
120
110
100
Yuan
90 Swiss Franc
80
Yen
70
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
We expect that slightly stronger growth momentum in the US During the forecast
than in Europe and Japan will strengthen the dollar in 2011-2012. period the dollar could
While the ECB will begin to raise its rates earlier, investors are appreciate, but the risk
likely to be less optimistic about the euro zone when fiscal and that it could decline is
monetary tightening reduces growth. greater in the slightly
longer term
With quantitative easing ending, concerns about inflation and a
further decline in the dollar will diminish, strengthening the
dollar’s position. We believe, however, that there is a risk of a
bigger decline in the dollar in the medium term, and the longer
the US avoids dealing with its financial issues, the greater the
risk of a hard landing for the dollar.
FX 28-mar-11 30-jun-11 31-dec-11 30-jun-12 31-dec-12
EUR/USD 1,41 1,45 1,30 1,25 1,25
RMB/USD 6,56 6,40 6,25 6,10 5,95
USD/JPY 82,4 81 90 95 95
The Japanese yen is weakening in the wake of a shrinking trade The yen should
surplus and growing interest rate differential against Europe and weaken, even without
the US. We expect that current pressure on the yen will decline interventions
when expectations of a massive capital repatriation fade. Our
assumption that the US will end QE2 without replacing it with
QE3 should also contribute to a weaker yen.
In Europe, the financial markets have helped to create a greater The euro zone’s crisis-
push for budget consolidation through higher CDS spreads and ridden countries have
financing costs. There are few choices for Portugal, Ireland, no alternative to tighter
Greece and Spain (PIGS) other than to implement austerity to fiscal policies
balance their budgets and reduce government debt. The UK
doesn't face the same pressure right now, but without austerity
the sentiment could have quickly turned negative in the financial
market. The ECB is now expected to begin raising interest rates
as early as this spring, which would make monetary policy less
expansive.
In the US and Japan (before the catastrophe), more fiscal The US and Japan, on
stimulus has been introduced in 2011 despite that little impact on the other hand, have
growth is expected. In addition to procyclical fiscal policies, they been able to continue
are maintaining highly expansive monetary policies: quantitative to stimulate their
easing and low interest rates that are not expected to be raised economies – but with
until next year. significant risks
• The focus has probably shifted too much to cutting Structural reform
spending and raising tax revenue. There is a risk that should go hand in
those worse off will have to bear a disproportionate share hand with budget
of the burden. Politically influential interest groups that consolidation
oppose structural changes, e.g., Greek pharmacies that
are resisting competition, are often protected. Instead,
deregulated markets could contribute to lower consumer
prices. Structural reforms must complement the budget
consolidation in order to raise long-term growth potential.
• Constantly being a step behind the financial markets in Staying a step behind
managing the crisis in the euro zone is far from an optimal the financial market is
economic policy. It would be preferable if national far from optimal
interests were set aside and that the measures taken
matched the supposedly political commitment to the euro.
The temporary crisis fund and permanent fund should
both be designed to reduce concerns about insufficient
liquidity. At the same time the responsibilities of lenders
must be clearly spelled out, so that they can reasonably
assess their risks when lending to countries that
potentially face a crisis.
• Debt restructuring in the private sector has been slow, Quantitative easing
which can also be explained by access to liquidity through and low benchmark
low benchmark interest rates and quantitative easing. interest rates have
Cranking up the printing presses has also played a part in delayed debt
manipulating pricing in various markets and cannot restructuring in the
continue. Quantitative easing cannot serve as a private sector
replacement for structural reforms, as in the case of
mortgage reform in the US.
China
12,5
7,5
India
Percent
Brazil
2,5 US
-2,5 Eurozone
UK
-7,5
Japan
-12,5
06 07 08 09 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
8
7
6
5
4
3 Japan
2
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
We project that GDP will grow by 3% this year and next. This is Decent growth despite
actually less than what would be expected after a recession, big structural problems
when there are latent consumption and investment needs.
However, the US is wrestling with major structural problems in its
housing, labour and credit markets, which is hampering the
recovery. Moreover, higher energy and food prices are keeping a
lid on consumer confidence and spending.
7,5
Procent
5,0
2,5
0,0
-2,5
Labour supply Employment
-5,0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
After trending downward for five years, the housing market is not
yet showing signs of having reached bottom. The zigzagging
trend in new and existing home sales has been driven by
stimulus measures. In April, when tax credits for home buyers
expired, sales fell markedly. A recovery began after that, but
sputtered when households became worried about rising gas
6 225
Sales of new homes
5 200
Index
4 175
Case/Shiller
3 Sales of existing homes house prices for 150
10 cities--->
2 125
1 100
Residential construction
0 75
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
The administration's fiscal stimulus, which was approved in It is vital that a budget
December, is designed to increase investment and job growth. At agreement is reached
the same time the effects of previous stimulus programs are now for both short and long
fading, which especially affects households that haven't yet term to avert another
finished eliminating their debt and may want to increase their government shutdown!
savings. A policy transition from stimulus to austerity has begun.
The Republicans, with a majority in the House of
Representatives, are pushing for spending cuts, which are
opposed by the Democrats, who have their sights set on growth
and next year's presidential election. On March 17 Congress
passed a three-week budget extension, but there is still a risk
that the federal government won’t have a budget beyond that.
Congress has to pass a budget for the rest of the fiscal year,
which ends in September, and for 2011-2012. The US also has
to reduce its medium-term debt. President Obama’s proposal
aims to slash the budget deficit by USD 1.1 trillion over a 10-year
period, which is less ambitious than his own bipartisan
commission, which would cut close to USD 4 trillion. This means
that debt will remain a major risk in the long term, which could
hurt the dollar and interest rates.
• GDP growth will slow to just over 0.5% this year, but could
rise to 3% next year driven by investment.
We project that GDP will shrink during the first and second
quarters. The factors that are limiting activity are electricity
shortages, production disruptions, the loss of exports, increased
energy imports and slower consumption due to immediate
concerns and damaged confidence. The scope of the disaster is
hard to fathom, with over 27 000 dead or missing and 260 000
people left homeless. For those who lost everything, the shortage
of water, fuel and food remains the biggest challenge.
Still, the reconstruction will eventually begin. We expect it to take Lower growth this year
many years, possibly an entire decade. Growth could turn but higher next year –
positive during the second half of this year, driven by public and other factors are far
private investment. GDP will grow by just over 0.5% this year more important
before reaching 3% in 2012. Reconstruction costs are estimated
at 25 trillion yen, or USD 300 billion, about 5% of GDP, which
should be spread out over a period of 5-10 years. The large part
will probably come in 2012 and 2013, however. Major nuclear
problems are not included in this calculation.
11000 95
10000 90
9000 85
8000 Nikkei, 225 80
7000 75
mar jul nov mar jul nov mar jul nov mar
08 09 10 11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
There are significant risks in analysing Japan. For one thing, it The crisis isn’t over yet
has not been possible to assess the full effects of the disaster on – the nuclear crisis
the economy. For another, we still don't know what the complicates the picture
consequences of the nuclear crisis in Fukushima will be in terms
of the rescue efforts, whether people will be able to return to the
region, export prospects for seafood and agricultural products,
energy supplies throughout Japan and their impact on prices, etc.
Another uncertainty concerns the political leadership during crisis The political risk is far
and how well the government and opposition are able to work from negligible – and a
together. Confidence in Prime Minister Naoto Kan was low before government crisis
the crisis and probably hasn't grown much, although it hasn't before the end of the
fallen either. The opposition isn't unlikely to gain any ground year is likely
either for defending decisions that lead to a faster reconstruction.
China recently concluded its National Party Congress, where the Chinas party congress
GDP growth target was set at 7% in 2011-2015. During the is over and ambitious
previous five-year period, 2006-2010, the goal of 7.5% was new goals have been
surpassed by a wide margin at 11.3%. A contributing reason for set – but can the
the large margin of error was the global financial crisis and Chinese achieve
recession, which forced the Chinese administration to stimulate them?
the economy, resulting in strong growth in exports and
investment.
25
Credit Growth
20
Percent
15
10 and in large
Reserve requirements in small banks
banks
5
Lending rate 6 months
Deposit rate 6 months
0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Households are being hurt by the high rate of inflation, which has Higher inflation is
fluctuated around 5% on an annual basis in recent months, but in hurting the economy,
reality is considerably higher for many people, since food and but could also create
energy prices have risen substantially. High inflation could lead to political instability
political instability, and the administration has no choice but to
fight inflation.
China’s transition to slightly weaker growth was evident this Is the slowdown
quarter not only in credit growth but also retail and auto sales and temporary or will it
among leading indicators. It is too early to say, however, how last?
sustainable the slowdown will be. Not until the effects of the new
year’s celebrations and the cold weather ebb can it be
determined, for example, whether the trade deficit was temporary
or indicated the beginning of a structural shift.
Many companies in the manufacturing and service sectors will Companies are feeling
face higher costs due to oil prices. Increases in other commodity the effects of higher
prices are also affecting growth, at the same time that interest cost pressures and
rates and salaries are rising, the exchange rate is appreciating in capacity shortages
real terms, and access to international capital is declining. In the
business sector, a tailwind is being replaced by a headwind.
10,0
7,5
5,0
2,5
0,0
Wholesale prices
-2,5
05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
A faster pace of reform in the Indian economy would help to drive A faster pace of reform
investment. This is especially true with respect to taxes and would contribute to
competition in the agricultural and retail sectors. higher investment and
reduce cost pressures
Policies remain focused on subsidising demand in rural areas to
reduce the stress of higher producer and consumer prices. India
is far too dependent on oil, and the subsidies are leading to
higher budget and current account deficits.
7,0 60
6,5 55
6,0 USD/INR (right) 50
5,5 45
5,0 40
4,5 35
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Major political developments include corruption scandals (MP Political scandals and
bribery, Commonwealth Games, telecom licenses) and a number corruption could affect
of state elections next month. Even if Prime Minister Singh interest among foreign
retains his position (no successor is evident) and the Congress investors
Party stays in power, uncertainty about scandals and the
reluctance to institute reforms could affect interest among foreign
investors. If capital inflows dry up, it could speed up deregulation
of the retail sector for foreign investors.
30 Import
Private
Percent
20
Consumption
10
0
GDP
-10 Export
-20
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Against the US dollar, the real is back at levels from before the
crisis, but in real effective terms the currency is considerably
stronger, partly as a result of higher costs in Brazil versus
The benchmark interest rate has been raised by three Benchmark interest
percentage points since April of last year to 11.75%, and we rates are high – but
expect further rate hikes during the year totalling at least 1 further rate hikes are
percentage point. At the same time the government wants to expected during the
tighten fiscal policy – by about 1% of GDP down to a deficit of year
2.5% of GDP – to reduce pressure monetary policy and restore
public finances after the election year’s excesses.
140
Index
10,0 USD/BRL Index
2008 aug =100 130
7,5
120
5,0 110
2,5 100
CPI
0,0 90
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Global developments pose the greatest risk to the Brazilian Weaker global growth,
economy on both the up- and downside. Strong demand, high, trade and commodity
stable commodity prices and modest capital inflows are prices are Brazil’s
benefitting the country. A trade war and protectionism would biggest risks
adversely affect the outlook, however. It would be positive if
Brazil’s economic policy could successfully reduce inflation and
interest rates. If not, there is a risk of a hard landing later on, with
an overheated domestic market and an inflated currency. How
well exit strategies in other major economies are managed will
also be critical for Brazil. If changes are made too quickly, it could
endanger stability in Brazil.
After rebounding during the first half of 2010, GDP growth tailed Higher inflation and
off during the second half of the year. The reasons were the cold interest rates have
weather, the stimulus phase-out and a slight global slowdown. contributed to a slight
The outlook for 2011 and 2012 is slightly less positive than in our downward revision of
January forecast, despite a stronger global recovery, including growth
higher demand from the US. Commodity price increases have led
to higher inflation at the consumer level, due to which the
European Central Bank (ECB) signalled that a period of higher
benchmark interest rates would begin as early as this spring
(April). Owing to tighter monetary conditions, together with tighter
fiscal policy in a number of countries, we are shaving a tenth of a
per cent from our previous GDP forecast. GDP growth is now
estimated at 1.5% this year and next. The financial crisis and
recession have affected countries differently. Germany, with its
competitive advantages, has regained its status as a strong
growth engine, while countries in Southern Europe and Ireland
are in need of major structural adjustments, which is inhibiting
growth.
Percent
The financial markets used to treat the euro zone’s members First risk premiums
collectively with nearly the same risk premium on lending until were too small – and
differences arose in connection with the financial crisis in 2008. now they’re too big?
Premiums rose substantially in 2010 in connection with the crisis
first in Greece and then Ireland. These countries have sought
and received help from the EU, ECB and IMF. Next in line is
politically unstable Portugal, which is expected to seek help,
especially if attempts to finance its debt in April and June prove
too costly. The financial markets still expect that Greek and Irish
loans will have to renegotiated. The impact on European banks is
unclear, but will be better understood when the results of the
stress tests are reported in June (assuming that the tests are
ambitious enough this time). There are also expectations that
Spain may need a rescue package, although that seems to have
died down lately as Spain has reduced its dependence on
financing from the ECB. The question is how the euro zone’s
institutions can manage these expectations. Will the decisions
made most recently on March 24-25 suffice?
5
4 Spain Portugal
3
2 Italy
1
0
-1 UK France Belgium
jan maj sep jan maj sep jan maj sep jan maj sep jan
07 08 09 10 11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
There is still not enough financing available through the Important details about
European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), since its lending the euro zone’s crisis
capacity, now at 250 billion euros, would be insufficient if Spain, funds are still lacking
for example, should need help. There is an agreement to
increase the fund to 440 billion euros, but no details on how this
will be done.
Last year Germany’s GDP grew by 3.6%, which was its highest Good momentum in
level in many years and at the same time was a result of the big the German economy
decline in the previous year, as well as stimulus measures.
Domestic demand, including inventory build-up, was the biggest
contributor to growth, which also benefitted other countries in the
euro zone. We expect GDP growth to slow to 2.4% this year and
1.9% next year. Less of a contribution from inventory will slow the
growth rate at the same time that the improving job market could
give a further boost to domestic demand. A higher inflation rate
could worry price-sensitive consumers, however, and in
combination with slightly weaker income growth produce only
modest consumption. Nevertheless, Germany's economic
development has been positive: its budget deficit is expected to
be below 3% as early as this year (rather than next year, as
predicted), it remains a competitive force and growth is
considerably higher than its potential of around 1-1.5%.
France’s GDP fell by 2.5% in 2009, which was followed by weak No ambitious French
growth of 1.5% in 2010 – the same rate we expect during the recovery, but no
forecast period. After net exports had been the driving force budget consolidation
behind growth, private consumption took over. We anticipate that either
investments and consumption will be the most important drivers,
although exports could benefit from Germany's strong
development. Unemployment remains relatively high at just over
9%. As a result, consumption growth and domestic inflation
remain in check. Rising import prices are contributing to higher
inflation, however. To date France has had a less ambitious
budget consolidation goal, with a deficit estimated at 6% this year
and not reaching 3% until 2013. The risk is that weak growth and
a lack of strong action will delay the budget consolidation.
Italy’s GDP growth was just over 1% last year, and unlikely it will Political uncertainty
surpass that in 2011, when exports are slowed by weak demand could affect the pace
in the euro zone – Italy’s most important export market – at the of reform and growth
same time that competition from emerging countries may lead to rate
the loss of market share. A weak labour market, low confidence
and political instability, and economic austerity, are expected to
stifle private consumption. Italy’s reforms have been slowed by
political concerns, and a new election can't be ruled out this year.
• We anticipate that the BOE will not raise its benchmark rate
until after this summer. Inflation could rise further before it
starts to fall.
The driving forces during the recovery have been the public The recovery isn’t
sector, inventory build-up and higher industrial production and robust, inflation is
exports on the heels of a weaker pound and competitive rising and the budget
improvements. At the same time households have been hurt by must be slashed
weaker labour, housing and credit markets. They are still trying to
restructure their debt at the same time that the public sector is
making cuts to reduce budget deficits and the national debt.
30 6,3
Total employment
Person (millions)
Person (millions)
28 6,1
26 5,9
Public sector --->
24 5,7
20 5,3
18 5,1
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Employment was still lower at the end of last year than before the
crisis in 2008. The expansion in the public sector continued until
last year, with a million more public workers than at the beginning
of year. The austerity package that has now been proposed calls
The goal is to balance the budget in 2014-15, compared with the The pace of
current deficit of around 9% of GDP. The cuts will intensify this consolidation seems
month, reaching about 2% of GDP this budget year, followed by reasonable – but
austerity cuts of 1.4% in 2012-2013 and just over 1% in each of structural reforms are
the budget years 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Some critics have needed
claimed that too many cuts will come at the beginning, before the
recovery is robust enough. On the other hand, the government
has wanted to avoid a crisis similar to what the PIGS countries
are experiencing. Although outstanding government bonds have
a relatively long maturity of 14 years, the debt is owned largely by
foreign investors, which makes the UK more vulnerable than
Japan, for instance.
CPI - services
4
Procent
CPI with
3 unchanged
taxes
2
1
CPI, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
0
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
If monetary austerity begins as the negative effects of the fiscal It is reasonable not to
policy become evident, there is a greater risk that the recovery rush into rate hikes
could fizzle. This would make it difficult to defend the latest
“budget for growth” which was recently presented and could live
up to its name by gradually reducing the corporate tax rate to
23% by 2015 as announced. The government has probably
expected to receive the support of the central bank through a
continuation of its expansive monetary policy. We expect the
central bank to sit tight during the spring and not begin a period
of cautious rate hikes until the fall. Inflation will slow, but it could
take time.
Nevertheless it makes sense to prepare for the alternative The worst growth
scenarios such as stagflation or renewed financial turbulence, scenarios require
which would affect demand in the real economy. The stagflation measures to raise
scenario would require companies to deal with higher costs, productivity
including by raising productivity and efficiencies through cheaper
purchasing solutions and smarter logistics. They wouldn't be
wrong to re-evaluate their business models in times of
uncertainty about costs and growth prospects. Many will have to
prepare for higher costs when competition for capital increases.
Households have to think through their debt-to-equity ratios.
Further reducing debt would give them better flexibility later on
when interest rates are higher.
Countries that are now in crisis are implementing structural While others are
reforms, which will eventually make them more competitive. Even implementing
if this takes several years, countries that are now out front could structural reforms, it is
quickly find themselves left behind after years of failing to easy to get passed by
institute reforms. A structural transformation is under way, – despite better
especially now that smaller emerging countries that have been in conditions
crisis can strengthen their positions, which increases competition
at home in segments where it hasn’t been as strong to date, i.e.,
higher up the value chain.
Cecilia Hermansson
ISSN 1103-4897