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Mr. Ebbers aside, WorldCom spun a similar tale to Enron (discussed in last week's newsletter) in terms of fudging the financials. In
WorldCom's case it was a matter of capitalizing certain costs as opposed to recording them properly as expenses, which--surprise!--
would have resulted in lower reported earnings.
Here's a SPREDGAR graph showing the earnings per share numbers versus free cash flow per share over the Sept. 98 - Sept. 2000
period:
Note that except for two periods, free cash flow is negative--usually dramatically so--than reported positive earnings. How can this be?
Let's take a look at SPREDGAR's net balance sheet cash flow for the quarter ending December 1998:
WorldCom's expenses most likely show up in the Property, Plant, & Equipment (PP&E) line item. During this period PP&E was more
than five times reported net income! Note that this does not represent a long-term asset or investment, which is listed on the next line.
From eight quarters starting in October 1998, PP&E ranged from 80%-400% of net income. Stuffing expenses into this area allowed net
income to be reported as positive
Note also that Depreciation & Amortization is higher than net income for the period! This is not likely to happen, if at all, to a legitimate
business. However, for the next seven quarters, Depreciation & Amortization ran between 30%-100% of net income--yet another red
flag. Of course, if you're capitalizing expenses, then you have to amortize them, which results in the high Depreciation & Amortization
expenses.
We recently read the highly entertaining and informative book by John Allen Paulos, A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market.
Interestingly, the author lost a bundle in WorldCom stock in spite of his obvious numerical prowess. The author writes: "Had I paid more
attention to WorldCom fundamentals, particularly its $30 billion in debt, and less attention to WorldCom fairy tales...I no doubt would
have fared better."
Mr. Paulos offer's a fascinating discussion of "Benford's law", which has to do with the relative frequency of certain leading digits in
numbers (including accounting numbers). The number "1" appears most frequently at about 30%, the number "2" less frequently at
about 18%, and so on. The tie-in to WorldCom (and other book-cookers) is whether or not the numbers were actually made up. It turns
out that when people are asked to make up numbers, they usually do a poor job. Numbers describing real-life phenomena follow a
predictable pattern.
Here's the rationale: Suppose a company has sales of $10 million per year. If sales grow at 7.2% a year, it will have sales of $20 million
in ten years--so sales will have a leading digit of "1" for a long time. Sales will reach $30 million in only six years, and $40 million four
years after that, so the "2" and "3" digits will appear somewhat less frequently. Thus a large set of numbers can be analyzed to see
whether or not they follow the expected pattern.
WorldCom, Inc.
Consolidated Net Debt
(In millions)
WORLDCOM GROUP
COMBINED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(Unaudited. In Millions, Except Per Share Data)
Operating expenses:
Line costs:
Attributed costs 1,983 1,904 8,019 7,031
Intergroup allocated
expenses 26 23 101 87
Selling, general and
administrative:
Attributed costs 775 838 3,164 2,752
Shared corporate services 490 339 1,981 1,575
Depreciation and amortization:
Attributed costs 1,350 931 4,841 3,420
Intergroup allocated expenses (179) (163) (720) (627)
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total 4,445 3,872 17,386 14,238
-------- -------- -------- --------
Operating income 856 1,076 3,962 5,009
Other income (expense):
Interest expense (312) (152) (1,029) (502)
Miscellaneous 130 87 520 468
-------- -------- -------- --------
Income before income taxes and
minority interests 674 1,011 3,453 4,975
Provision for income taxes 263 410 1,315 2,050
-------- -------- -------- --------
Income before minority
interests 411 601 2,138 2,925
Minority interests 15 -- 35 --
-------- -------- -------- --------
Net income before distributions
on mandatorily redeemable
preferred securities 426 601 2,173 2,925
Distributions on mandatorily
redeemable preferred
securities and other preferred
dividend requirements 42 16 117 65
-------- -------- -------- --------
Net income $384 $585 $2,056 $2,860
======== ======== ======== ========
PRO FORMA
-----------------------------------
Diluted earnings per
common share(1) $0.13 $0.20 $0.70 $0.98
======== ======== ======== ========
Diluted weighted average
WorldCom group shares
outstanding(1) 2,965 2,893 2,933 2,912
======== ======== ======== ========
Financial Reporting
-----------------------------------
Three Months Ended Year Ended
December 31, December 31,
----------------- -----------------
2001 2000(1) 2001 2000(1)
-------- -------- -------- --------
Revenues:
Voice $1,570 $1,708 $6,591 $7,036
Data 2,139 1,927 8,620 7,389
International 768 1,538 2,977 5,875
Internet dedicated and other 824 688 3,160 2,455
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total revenues 5,301 5,861 21,348 22,755
-------- -------- -------- --------
Operating expenses:
Line costs:
Attributed costs 1,983 2,315 8,019 8,658
Intergroup allocated expenses 26 23 101 87
Selling, general and
administrative:
Attributed costs 857 1,144 4,052 3,682
Shared corporate services 490 339 2,006 2,007
Depreciation and amortization:
Attributed costs 1,350 1,055 4,841 3,907
Intergroup allocated expenses (179) (163) (720) (627)
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total 4,527 4,713 18,299 17,714
-------- -------- -------- --------
Operating income 774 1,148 3,049 5,041
Other income (expense):
Interest expense (312) (140) (1,029) (458)
Miscellaneous 82 58 412 385
-------- -------- -------- --------
Income before income taxes,
minority interests and
cumulative effect of
accounting change 544 1,066 2,432 4,968
Provision for income taxes 212 385 943 1,990
-------- -------- -------- --------
Income before minority
interests and cumulative
effect of accounting change 332 681 1,489 2,978
Minority interests 15 (80) 35 (305)
-------- -------- -------- --------
Income before cumulative effect
of accounting change 347 601 1,524 2,673
Cumulative effect of accounting
change (net of income tax of
$43 in 2000) -- -- -- (75)
-------- -------- -------- --------
Net income before distributions
on mandatorily redeemable
preferred securities 347 601 1,524 2,598
Distributions on mandatorily
redeemable preferred
securities and other preferred
dividend requirements 42 16 117 65
-------- -------- -------- --------
Net income $305 $585 $1,407 $2,533
======== ======== ======== ========
PRO FORMA
-----------------------------------
Diluted earnings per
common share(2) $0.10 $0.20 $0.48 $0.87
======== ======== ======== ========
Diluted weighted average
WorldCom group shares
outstanding(2) 2,965 2,893 2,933 2,912
======== ======== ======== ========
WORLDCOM GROUP
CONDENSED COMBINED BALANCE SHEETS
(Unaudited. In Millions)
WORLDCOM GROUP
COMBINED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
(Unaudited. In Millions)
Operating expenses:
Line costs 3,568 3,675 14,739 13,835
Selling, general and
administrative 2,461 2,444 9,951 8,890
Depreciation and amortization 1,614 1,184 5,880 4,391
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total 7,643 7,303 30,570 27,116
-------- -------- -------- --------
Operating income 835 1,418 4,609 8,466
Other income (expense):
Interest expense (438) (283) (1,533) (1,014)
Miscellaneous 130 87 520 468
-------- -------- -------- --------
Income before income taxes and
minority interests 527 1,222 3,596 7,920
Provision for income taxes 205 496 1,374 3,222
-------- -------- -------- --------
Income before minority
interests 322 726 2,222 4,698
Minority interests 15 -- 35 --
-------- -------- -------- --------
Net income 337 726 2,257 4,698
Distributions on mandatorily
redeemable preferred
securities and other preferred
dividend requirements 42 16 117 65
-------- -------- -------- --------
Net income applicable to common
shareholders $295 $710 $2,140 $4,633
======== ======== ======== ========
Financial Reporting
-----------------------------------
Three Months Ended Year Ended
December 31, December 31,
----------------- -----------------
2001 2000(1) 2001 2000(1)
-------- -------- -------- --------
Revenues:
Voice $1,570 $1,708 $6,591 $7,036
Data 2,139 1,927 8,620 7,389
International 768 1,538 2,977 5,875
Internet dedicated and other 824 688 3,160 2,455
-------- -------- -------- --------
Commercial services 5,301 5,861 21,348 22,755
Consumer 1,711 1,888 7,227 7,778
Wholesale 591 733 2,641 3,388
Alternative channels and small
business 531 749 2,427 3,541
Dial-up Internet 344 403 1,536 1,628
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total revenues 8,478 9,634 35,179 39,090
-------- -------- -------- --------
Operating expenses:
Line costs 3,568 4,086 14,739 15,462
Selling, general and
administrative 2,543 2,750 11,046 10,597
Depreciation and amortization 1,614 1,308 5,880 4,878
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total 7,725 8,144 31,665 30,937
-------- -------- -------- --------
Operating income 753 1,490 3,514 8,153
Other income (expense):
Interest expense (438) (271) (1,533) (970)
Miscellaneous 82 58 412 385
-------- -------- -------- --------
Income before income taxes,
minority interests and
cumulative effect of
accounting change 397 1,277 2,393 7,568
Provision for income taxes 154 471 927 3,025
-------- -------- -------- --------
Income before minority
interests and cumulative
effect of accounting change 243 806 1,466 4,543
Minority interests 15 (80) 35 (305)
-------- -------- -------- --------
Income before cumulative effect
of accounting change 258 726 1,501 4,238
Cumulative effect of accounting
change (net of income tax of
$50 in 2000) -- -- -- (85)
-------- -------- -------- --------
Net income 258 726 1,501 4,153
Distributions on mandatorily
redeemable preferred
securities and other preferred
dividend requirements 42 16 117 65
-------- -------- -------- --------
Net income applicable to common
shareholders $216 $710 $1,384 $4,088
======== ======== ======== ========