Weekly Report

28th Mar - 02nd Apr 2011

Global Research Limited

AGRI MAR
AGRI MARKET
“SPICES TUMBLES ON SHORT SELLING”

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 J E E R A (APR)
JEERA SURGES ON ACTIVE BUYING Weekly Report
28th Mar - 02nd Apr 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Jeera prices extended the volatility on speculative Ÿ Lower level buying Script Levels
activity last week. Futures started the week on Ÿ Poor production
slightly positive note on short covering but increased R3 17430
arrivals at spot pressurized the prices. However, R2 16640
during later half prices bounced back on value R1 16260
buying and after witnessing huge volatility futures PP 15850
ended the week on slightly positive note. Lower MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 15470
level buying at spot might also support the prices Last week Jeera did our target of 15600 S2 15070
initially. However, increasing arrivals are likely to below the level of 15900 but did not
S3 14280
pressurize the prices later. Daily arrivals at market sustained at lower level. Last week initially
were hovering around 24,000-25,000 bags. Rising Jeera was bearish but it showed good
arrivals of Jeera at spot market are keeping the recovery in the later part of the week. For
prices under pressure. Though overall production the next week Jeera has resistance
forecast is down by 10-25% Y/Y still poor export at16250 and support at 15450.
demand from gulf countries are likely to weigh on
prices in short term. As per trade sources, on one
hand poor export demand is weighing on prices
while on other hand lower level buying from
STRATEGY
stockiest is limiting the sharp fall in prices. Prices
have shown a positive move while volumes and Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one
open interest are falling. Market is running out of should use the strategy of sell on higher
traders willing to open or hold an open long/buy. levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains
Traders are liquidating both loosing short positions below the level of 15450 then we can
& closing winning long positions. A higher expect the level of 15100, and if it sustains
probability the market is set to re-trace in price lower above 16250 then we can see the level of
at some point. 16550.

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 G U A R S E E D (APR)
GUARSEED TRADES UP ON STRONG DEMAND
Weekly Report
28th Mar - 02nd Apr 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Guar seed and Guar gum futures initially opened Ÿ Unfavourable weather conditions Script
down side last week while trading positive in the
Levels
Ÿ Subdued spot market
previous sessions. The prices declined towards the R3 3314
closing erasing the gains. The prices went up on the R2 3143
concerns of the possible increase in the crude oil
exploration and the in turn the demand to come in
R1 3078
for the Guar gum. The increase in the prices, open PP 2972
interest and volume indicates that the prices might MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 2907
be subject to positive trend for the next week. The Last week Guarseed did our target of 2810 S2 2801
basis of the Guar seed has increased which might above the level of 2760 and even closed
extend for the week while the basis of gum is S3 2630
above it. Last week Guarseed was in a
decreasing as the current demand for the
commodity is good. The spread between the bullish trend and even closed near to its
contracts is decreasing in Guar seed while it is stable weekly high. For the next week Guarseed
in the Guar gum. The Guar seed and Guar gum has resistance at 3020 and support at
futures are projected to extend the positive trend for 2840.
next week while towards the closing the prices
might turn weak tracking subdued spot markets.
Some demand for the ready Guar gum which is
prevailing across the spot markets might support the
prices. However absence of the fresh export STRATEGY
demand and the inactive buying due higher spot
prices might prompt profit booking at higher levels. For next week in Guar seed traders should
The national climatic centre and inter-national go for buying at lower levels strategy, if
weather agencies have predicted normal monsoon Guar seed sustains above the level of 3040
for the year 2011 during the current year in we can see the level of 3100, and below
Rajasthan. 70-80% of the fresh crop has arrived 2840 it can touch the level of 2775.
across the spot markets and has been crushed also.

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 S O YA B E A N ( A P R )
SOYBEAN FALLS ON SELLING PRESSURE
Weekly Report
28th Mar - 02nd Apr 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
The weakness in international oil and oilseeds Ÿ Weakness in international market Script
markets had a strong bearish impact on Indian
Levels
Ÿ Lack of active buying interest
Soybean derivatives market. All the available R3 2493
contracts on NCDEX fell almost 2% from previous R2 2415
day on strong selling pressure.
R1 2373
Lack of active buying interest especially from
crushers on limited meal export enquiries had a PP 2237
MARKET OVERVIEW
bearish impact on the market. Spot markets were S1 2295
closed due to local holiday. Financial year ending has Last week Soybean was in a tight range S2 2259
been prompting traders and crushers to stay away and price was neither able to sustain at
from active trade participation. Global markets were
S3 2181
higher levels nor at lower levels. It is facing
also down this week on profit selling ahead of USDA support at the psychological level of 2300
prospective planting report scheduled for release on and is sustaining above this level. For the
31st March 2011. However, towards end of the
next week Soybean has resistance at 2380
week, market recovered on short covering. The
Soybean futures are projected to trade on a positive
and support at 2300.
note in early trade next week on short covering.
Traders and investors are likely to cover their short
positions. Positive trend in international market is
likely to render support to the Indian market.
STRATEGY
However, the sentiment is still looking weak because
of falling crush margin. International Soybean is moving in a downward channel
market—CBOT soy and BMD palm oil—are ended on charts and one should look for selling
higher and presently trading on a positive note on opportunities at higher levels, if Soybean
emergence of buying interest. US traders are buying sustains below the level of 2300 we can
Soybean futures on fear of lesser Soybean acreage in
see the level of 2250, and on the upside if it
the upcoming season. Shift in global demand from
sustains above the level of 2380 we can see
Latin America to US is also supporting the global
market. Wet condition in Brazil due to recent rainfall Soybean at 2420 level.
is hampering harvesting and transportation of the
produce. Market participants are waiting for release
of US prospective planting report scheduled for
release on 31st March 2011.

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 C H A N A (APR)
CHANA ENDS DOWN ON PROFIT BOOKING
Weekly Report
28th Mar - 02nd Apr 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Chana futures declined during the opening of last Ÿ Profit booking Script
week while towards the closing it recovered slightly.
Levels
Ÿ Increased arrivals
Decreasing spot prices had the same negative R3 2709
impact on the futures prices. The stockiest and R2 2594
millers have started buying across the spot markets
R1 2531
which is preventing the prices from any steep fall.
The decrease in prices, open interest and volume in PP 2479
last few days indicates that market might resume
MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 2416
positive trend next week. Chana basis has resumed Last week Chana did our target of 2450 S2 2364
down trend which might continue further. Chana below the level of 2490 but the price is still
futures are expected to open down side while S3 2250
not able to sustain below the level of 2450
recovery towards the end of the day might be seen
and we saw good buying coming at lower
due to short covering. Increasing arrivals are likely to
pressurize the futures prices while the demand levels. For the next week Chana has
which is picking up across the spot markets might resistance at 2540 and support at 2420.
help the prices to recover. The government has
invited tenders to import 10000 tons of pulses has
affected the market sentiments. These imports
would include 2000 tons of Chana. The stockiest
have started accumulating as the arrivals are gaining
momentum and the fresh crop quality is good. STRATEGY
Active participation of the stockiest in buying Overall trend of Chana is bearish and one
activities might prevent any steep fall in the prices.
should go for selling at higher levels
Arrivals from Rajasthan might gain momentum in
the month of April. strategy in it. For the coming week if
Chana sustains below 2420 level we can
see it at 2370 and above 2540 we can
expect the level of 2580.

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 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report
28th Mar - 02nd Apr 2011

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver *
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 20-APR-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 16075 16031 16238 15452 15875 49668 -200 15477 69,437.41

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-APR-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 23454 23450 24730 23415 24514 42453 1060 8590 84,422.79
TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-APR-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 9906 9834 10022 9584 9688 20415 -218 7080 17,483.99
GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 2946 2940 3038 2867 3013 1356710 67 163350 340,179.99
GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 8471 8437 8884 8280 8786 100705 315 13530 76,031.74

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-APR-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2528 2525 2542 2427 2469 470060 -59 97390 103,109.93
SYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Soybean RS/QUINTAL 2376 2367.5 2380 2302 2331 326170 -45 145510 68,425.45

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 620.6 618.4 621.5 591.6 603.5 587500 -17.1 77250 233,473.86

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/QUINTAL 2809 2803 2810 2683 2747 504480 -62 147950 120,184.57

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-APR-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1232 1238 1250 1198 1224 278770 -8 83800 30,952.05
GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JUL- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 1006 1007 1032 995 1016 29830 10 10210 5,584.26
POTATO NCDEX 20-APR-11 Potato RS/QUINTAL 542 542 547 491 515.3 104880 -26.7 27690 4,926.29

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-APR-11 Kapas RS./20KG 1186.5 1183.3 1250 1165 1241.8 18842 55.3 2516 35,549.01
WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-APR-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1166.2 1163 1174 1150.2 1153 11600 -13.2 7910 1,251.44
MENTHA OIL MCX 30-APR-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1127.2 1133.8 1139.6 1068 1116.3 6880 -10.9 1604 26787.08
CARDAMOM MCX 15- APR -11 Cardamom RS/KG 1137.2 1130 1130 1093.1 1105.8 4941 -31.4 1464 5001.56

* Turnover Till Friday

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 15875 -1.24

NCDEX PEPPER 24514 4.52
NCDEX TURMERIC 9688 -2.20
NCDEX GUARSEED 3013 2.27
NCDEX GUARGUM 8786 3.72
NCDEX CHANA 2469 -2.33
NCDEX SOYBEAN 2331 -1.89
NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 603.5 -2.76
NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2747 -2.21
NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1224 -0.65
NCDEX GUR 1016 0.99
NCDEX POTATO 515.3 -4.93
NCDEX KAPAS 1241.8 4.66
NCDEX WHEAT 1153 -1.13
NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1116.3 -0.97
NCDEX CARDAMOM 1105.8 -2.76

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 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report
28th Mar - 02nd Apr 2011

Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
KAPAS 29-APR-11 1241.8 4.66 POTATO 20-APR-11 515.3 -4.93
PEPPER 20-APR-11 24514 4.52 CARDAMOM 15-APR-11 1105.8 -2.76
GUARGUM 20-APR-11 8786 3.72 REFINED SOYA OIL 20-APR-11 603.5 -2.76

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
JEERA (APR) 17427.00 16641.00 16258.00 15855.00 15472.00 15069.00 14283.00
PEPPER (APR) 26849.67 25534.67 25024.33 24219.67 23709.33 22904.67 21589.67
TURMERIC (APR) 10640.67 10202.67 9945.33 9764.67 9507.33 9326.67 8888.67
GUARSEED (APR) 3314.67 3143.67 3078.33 2972.67 2907.33 2801.67 2630.67
GUARSGUM (APR) 9858.00 9254.00 9020.00 8650.00 8416.00 8046.00 7442.00
CHANA (APR) 2709.33 2594.33 2531.67 2479.33 2416.67 2364.33 2249.33
SOYBEAN (APR) 2493.67 2415.67 2373.33 2337.67 2295.33 2259.67 2181.67
REFINED SOYA OIL (APR) 665.33 635.43 619.47 605.53 589.57 575.63 545.73
MUSTARD (MAY) 3000.67 2873.67 2810.33 2746.67 2683.33 2619.67 2492.67
COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (APR) 1328.00 1276.00 1250.00 1224.00 1198.00 1172.00 1120.00
GUR (JUL) 1088.33 1051.33 1033.67 1014.33 996.67 977.33 940.33
POTATO (APR) 629.77 573.77 544.53 517.77 488.53 461.77 405.77
KAPAS (APR) 1388.93 1303.93 1272.87 1218.93 1187.87 1133.93 1048.93
MENTHA OIL (APR) 1251.17 1179.57 1147.93 1107.97 1076.33 1036.37 964.77
CARDAMOM (APR) 1183.43 1146.53 1126.17 1109.63 1089.27 1072.73 1035.83

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