Volume 6, Issue 10 • November 2010

Election 2010: How the Results Stack Up Historically

Republicans gained more than sixty seats in the House of Representatives and six Senate seats. They picked up six gover-
norships and hundreds of seats at the state legislative level. They won control of nineteen state legislative chambers and
took the majority in both houses in at least five states. How do the 2010 results compare to the results of other midterm
elections? The charts here, created by John Fortier and Jennifer Marsico, look at seat gains for the party out of power in
the House, the Senate, governor’s mansions, and state legislatures. They constructed a “power ranking,” based on the
average of their rankings in those four categories. Using this system, the 2010 elections rank as the sixth most significant
midterm elections since 1914—a high ranking, although not as high as the impressive House results alone. For comparison
purposes, they have also included data in each category for 1994 when Republicans took back the House after 40 years in
the minority and for 2006 when the Democrats made sizable gains.

Biggest Seat Changes for the Out Party in Midterms

House Elections Governors’ Elections

1. 1938 +81 R 1. 1922 +12 D
2. 1922 +76 D 1938 +12 R
3. 2010 +65 R* 3. 1970 +11 D
4. 1914 +62 R Midterm 1994 +11 R
5. 1946 +55 R Power 5. 1954 +8 D
6. 1994 +54 R 1966 +8 R
Ranking
By comparison… By comparison…
11. 2006 +31 D 1. 1922 9. 2010 +6 R
* As of November 9, 2010. Undecided races placed 2. 1938 13.2006 +5 D
with the leading party.
3. 1994
1958
5. 1930 State Legislature Elections
Senate Elections
1. 1958 +15 D
6. 2010 1. 1922 +932 D
2. 1958 +812 D
2. 1946 +13 R By compari- 3. 1938 +721 R
3. 1942 +10 R
son… 4. 2010 +681 R*
4. 1994 +9 R
11.2006 5. 1974 +628 D
5. 1930 +8 D
1986 +8 D By comparison…
7. 1994 +505 R
By comparison…
13.2006 +322 D
8. 2010 +6 R
12.2006 +5 D * As of November 9, 2010. Undecided races are
not included.

Source: Calculations by John Fortier and Jennifer Marsico.

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 What the Voters Said on Election Day: Exit Poll Results from A to Z
A
fghanistan. Eight percent of voters in House races
checked a box on the exit poll ballot indicating that
Afghanistan was the most important issue facing the
country. In another question on the exit poll, 40 percent of
voters approved of the war, while 54 percent disapproved.
Of voters who approved of the war, 26 percent voted for
Democrats and 73 percent for Republicans. Of those who
disapproved, 61 percent voted for Democrats and 36 per-
cent for Republicans.
B
lacks voted in overwhelming numbers for Demo-
cratic House candidates (90 percent) on Election
Day. They are one of the few groups in politics
whose allegiance to the Democratic Party appears unshake-
able. They were 10 percent of the electorate, just as they
were in 2006. But in 2008, they were 13 percent of the elec-
torate and their expanded presence contributed to Barack
Obama’s substantial victory.
C
onservatives were 41 percent of the electorate, up a
significant 9 percentage points from 2006. They were
more enthusiastic about GOP House candidates
than they were in 2006 when 74 percent of self-identified
conservatives supported Republicans. This year, 84 percent
did. Self-identified liberals were 20 percent of the electorate
in both years. They voted massively for Democratic House
candidates over GOP ones in 2010, 90 to 8 percent. The
altered ideological composition of the electorate was one of
the big stories of this election.
D
emocrats and Republicans were 36 percent of vot-
ers in House races, and most of them supported
their party’s candidates. Ninety-two percent of
Democrats voted for Democrats and 95 percent of Republi-
cans voted for GOP candidates in House races.
Neither party got stellar marks from voters. Forty-three
percent of voters in House races had a favorable view of
the Democratic Party and 52 percent an unfavorable opin-
ion. For the Republican Party, those responses were 41
and 53 percent, respectively.
E
conomic issues were the most important issues to
voters on Election Day. Sixty-two percent checked
the box saying that the economy was the most
important issue facing the country. The other issues the
exit pollsters asked about were health care (18 percent said
it was the most important issue) and Afghanistan and
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immigration (8 percent checked each of these boxes). The
economy was almost twice as important as these other three
issues combined.
Fourteen percent of voters said that their family’s
financial situation was better than two years ago. That is
the lowest response on this question since 1984.
As to economic policy going forward, 39 percent
checked a box indicating that reducing the deficit should
be the highest priority for the next Congress, 37 percent
spending to create jobs, and 18 percent cutting taxes. (See
page 6 of AEI’s Political Report for state-by-state responses
on this question.)
F
uture Forecasts. Forty-four percent of voters
checked a box on the exit poll ballot saying that
Obama’s policies would help the country; while
52 percent said they would hurt.
Thirty-two percent of voters said they expected life for
the next generation of Americans to be better than life
today, 38 percent worse, and 26 percent about the same.
G
ender Gaps were with us once again, with women
being more supportive of Democrats and men
more supportive of Republicans. Women voted
49 percent for Democrats in House races and 48 percent for
Republicans. Men voted 42 percent for Democrats and
55 percent for Republicans. The gender gap was 14 points.
White men and white women voted for Republican candi-
dates, although white men were more enthusiastic about
them. Sixty-two percent of white men voted for Republican
candidates; 57 percent of white women did.
In a pattern we have seen in the past, women voted for
Democratic and not Republican women in Senatorial and
gubernatorial races. In Connecticut, California, and
Nevada, women pulled the lever for the Democratic Sena-
torial candidates.
H
omosexuals were 3 percent of voters, about what
their share of the electorate has been in recent
elections. But this year, self-identified gays, les-
bians, and bisexuals looked more Republican than they
did in either 2006 or 2008. In those years, 24 and 19 per-
cent respectively, voted for GOP candidates. This year,
30 percent did.
Forty percent of voters in House races checked the box
saying that same-sex marriages should be legally recog-
nized. Fifty-four percent said they should not be.
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I
ndependents were one of the big stories of Election Day
2010. They swung massively in the GOP’s direction,
and for the third election in a row, swept the party in
power out. In 2006, they voted 57 to 39 percent for Demo-
cratic House candidates over Republican ones. This year,
they flipped, voting 39 percent for Democrats and 55 per-
cent for Republicans.
J
oe Biden, Delaware’s native son, was popular at home.
Sixty-three percent had a favorable opinion of him, and
34 percent an unfavorable one. Bill Clinton was not quite
as popular in his home state of Arkansas, where 58 percent
of voters rated him favorably, and 38 percent unfavorably.
In Texas, 57 percent had a favorable opinion of George W.
Bush. In his home state of Illinois, 53 percent of voters
approved of the job Barack Obama is doing as president,
while 46 percent disapproved.
K
entuckians supported the Tea Party (43 percent) by a
plurality. Twenty-eight percent said they opposed it,
and 27 percent were neutral. Forty-eight percent of
voters there said Rand Paul’s views were too extreme (48 per-
cent said they were not). As for Jack Conway, 41 percent said
his views were too extreme (54 percent said they were not).
L
atinos were 8 percent of the national electorate.
They were 22 percent of California’s electorate, and
they voted 65 percent for Barbara Boxer and 28 per-
cent for Carly Fiorina in the Senate contest. In the Texas
gubernatorial race, they were 17 percent of voters, and they
voted for Bill White over Rick Perry by 61 to 38 percent. In
Nevada, they were 15 percent of voters, and they supported
Harry Reid over Sharron Angle by 68 to 30 percent. Sixty-
four percent of them supported Reid’s son, Rory, in the
governor’s race. In Arizona, they were 13 percent of voters,
and they supported Rodney Glassman over John McCain,
by 57 to 40 percent. In Florida, 55 percent of Latinos voted
for Marco Rubio.
In California, Colorado, and Arizona, 67, 62, and 55
percent of voters in Senate contests respectively said most
illegal immigrants should be given legal status. In the Col-
orado Governor’s race, 62 percent of voters said most
should be given legal status and they voted by 68 to 22
percent for John Hickenlooper over Tom Tancredo.
Thirty-seven percent said most should be deported, and
they voted for Tancredo by 65 to 31 percent.
M
oney. In 1988, voters with family incomes of
$100,000 or more were 12 percent of the elec-
torate. In 2010, this group represented 26 percent
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of voters. After voting narrowly for Republican House can-
didates in the past two elections, voters in this income
group in 2010 voted substantially for GOP House candi-
dates, 58 to 40 percent.
Thirty-nine percent of Wisconsin voters said they were
concerned about the amount of money Senate victor
Ron Johnson spent, but 58 percent were not. In Nevada,
53 percent of voters in the Senate contest were worried
about foreclosure for themselves or a relative. In Califor-
nia, 34 percent in the gubernatorial exit poll said their
state could reduce its deficit without a tax increase;
59 percent said it could not.
N
ew Hampshire voters, who vote in the first presi-
dential primary, were asked about two possible
GOP candidates. Forty percent of voters in the
Senate exit poll had a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin,
while 56 percent had an unfavorable one. Those responses
for Mitt Romney were 47 and 46 percent, respectively. In
Iowa, an early caucus state, 41 percent in the Senate exit
poll had a favorable opinion of Palin, and 54 percent an
unfavorable one. For Romney, those responses were 37 and
45 percent, respectively.
O
lder voters. Voters who were 65 years and older
voted for Republican House candidates by 58 to
40 percent. In 2006, they split their votes evenly.
The electorate tends to be older in midterm elections and
voters age 50 and older constituted 57 percent of all voters.
P
ostgraduates were 20 percent of voters, and they sup-
ported Democratic candidates in House races on
Election Day, by 52 to 46 percent. The only other
educational group to support Democratic House candi-
dates were those with less than a high school diploma. This
small group (3 percent of voters) voted 60 to 36 percent for
Democrats. All other education groups (high school grads,
those with some college education, and college grads) voted
for Republicans.
Q uestions. This year, the exit polling consortium of
the five networks and the Associated Press asked
questions of 17,504 respondents in House contests.
Preliminary work has already begun on the 2012 poll.
R
eligion. Protestants were more than half of all voters
(54 percent) in House races on November 2, and
they voted for Republicans by 59 to 39 percent.
Catholics were a quarter of the electorate and they voted for
Republicans more narrowly, 53 to 45 percent. White
3
 V
Catholics, one of the true swing groups in our politics, oters who voted for the first time were 3 percent
voted more substantially for the GOP, 58 to 40 percent. of the electorate. They voted for Democratic over
Republican House candidates by 49 to 45 percent.

S
uburban Swing. Demographers like to say that

“Density = Democrats.” And indeed, the 30 percent of
the electorate that resided in urban areas voted 56 to
41 percent for Democratic candidates in House contests.
Voters in the suburbs (half of all voters) voted for Republi-
can candidates by 54 to 43 percent. In 2006 and 2008, more
suburban voters voted for Democrats than Republicans.
W
hite Working Class is one of the important swing
groups in our politics. Defined as whites without
a college degree, this group voted for Republicans
for Congress by a record 29 percentage points. Their strong
support for Republicans contributed to the Republican rout.

X
True to type, voters in rural areas leaned heavily to Republi- Chromosome. Since 1980, women have been a
can House candidates, 60 to 38 percent. slightly larger share of the electorate than men. On
Election Day this year, 53 percent of voters were

T
ea Party Support. Forty percent of voters checked a female, and 47 percent were male.
box saying they were supporters of the Tea Party

movement, including 21 percent who said they were
strong supporters. Thirty-one percent said they opposed
the movement, and 25 percent were neutral. Later in this
issue of AEI’s Political Report, we present the responses on
this question by state.
Y
oung people were 18 percent of voters in 2008,
when two-thirds of them voted for President
Obama. This year there were fewer of them in the
electorate (they represented 11 percent of voters), and they
voted 56 to 40 percent for Democratic candidates.

U Z
nion households were 23 percent of voters in 2006; eal. Three percent of voters checked a box saying
this year they were 17 percent. Their support for they were “enthusiastic” about the federal govern-
Democratic House candidates dropped from 64 ment. Twenty-one percent chose “satisfied,” 48 per-
percent in 2006 to 60 percent in 2010. On Election Day, cent “dissatisfied,” and 26 percent “angry.” Those who were
Republicans had their best showing among union house- enthusiastic voted 90 percent for Democrats and 9 percent
holds since 1994. for Republicans in House contests. Angry voters voted
64 percent for Republicans and 33 percent for Democrats.

Coming in Our Next Issue

� What Americans are really saying about the role of government: An Editor’s Report
� Do Americans want both more and less government?
� What’s driving distrust?
� What effect has the recession had on our views about government?
� Will generational warfare break out over the role of government in the future?

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew
Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Rugg, Editor.
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Interns: Kathleen Nahill, James Paul, Lucy Zheng.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 4
 What Voters Said State by State
Here is a look at what voters in state exit polls had to say about the role of government, the Tea Party Movement, what
should be done about the new health care law, the stimulus package, and priorities for the next congress.
———————Government. . . ———————
Is doing too many things Should do
better left to businesses more to —————Tea Party Movement—————
and individuals solve problems Support Oppose

National 56% 38% 40% 31%

Arizona 61 34 46 30
Arkansas 61 32 43 23
California 53 41 34 35
Colorado 61 31 41 34
Connecticut 46 50 35 42
Delaware 45 51 35 45
Florida 56 37 39 32
Hawaii 40 54 26 37
Illinois 49 47 36 32
Indiana 62 35 46 27
Iowa 58 34 36 32
Kentucky 58 39 43 28
Louisiana 52 43 42 29
Missouri 56 42 41 28
Nevada 53 39 38 35
New Hampshire 54 40 41 32
New York 44 52 36 37
Ohio 55 41 43 27
Oregon 55 36 36 36
Pennsylvania 53 43 39 35
South Carolina 52 45 43 29
Rhode Island 52 45 43 29
Texas 60 36 48 25
Vermont 50 42 24 43
Washington 54 40 37 40
West Virginia 58 39 40 24
Wisconsin 56 41 37 32
Note: The “neutral” category for the tea party question is not shown. The Texas entries here are from the gubernatorial exit polls. All other
entries here from individual states are from Senate exit polls. National entry is from the House exit polls.
(continued on the next page)

Louisiana Voters
Recent hurricanes have caused Oil spill has caused
hardship for my family 35% hardship for my family 15%
No hardship 65 No hardship 83

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(continued from the previous page)

What should Congress do with Thus far, stimulus Highest priority

the new health care law package has . . . for next congress
Expand Leave Repeal Helped No Hurt Cutting Reducing Spending
as is differ- taxes deficit to create
ence jobs
National 31% 16% 48% 33% 32% 33% 18% 39% 37%

Arizona 28 14 52 – – – 20 36 39
Arkansas 23 16 55 26 31 40 20 42 33
California 37 16 40 – – – 16 39 40
Colorado 30 14 51 – – – 18 44 34
Connecticut – – – – – – – – –
Delaware 40 17 39 – – – – – –
Florida 30 19 44 33 30 34 18 34 42
Hawaii 50 19 27 – – – – – –
Illinois 42 16 39 36 31 30 19 37 40
Indiana 30 12 55 31 30 37 17 39 37
Iowa 26 17 51 – – – 20 38 35
Kentucky 26 15 53 – – – 21 35 37
Louisiana 34 12 52 – – – – – –
Missouri 27 31 16 53 25 31 43 23 38 34
Nevada 29 17 53 – – – 16 35 43
New Hampshire 31 18 49 – – – 23 39 32
New York – – – 31 18 48 – – –
Ohio 31 14 50 28 32 38 20 37 37
Oregon 32 17 42 – – – 16 43 36
Pennsylvania 35 17 45 – – – 20 38 35
South Carolina 33 15 49 30 29 40 – – –
Rhode Island 33 15 49 – – – – – –
Texas 25 15 56 26 29 42 – – –
Vermont 43 16 34 – – – – – –
Washington 33 17 44 – – 15 44 37
West Virginia 26 13 57 – – – 21 39 33
Wisconsin 36 17 45 – – – – – –
Note: The Texas entries here are from the gubernatorial exit polls. All other entries here from individual states are from Senate exit polls.
National entry is from the House exit polls.

Voters on Immigration
Q: Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be . . .
California Arizona Colorado Texas*
Offered a chance for legal status 67% 55% 62% 49%
Deported to the country they came from 24 37 30 42
Note: *Texas results from the gubernatorial exit poll. The other states’ results are from Senate exit polls. Fifty-two percent of Arizona voters
strongly favor their state’s immigration law, 14 percent somewhat favor it, 8 percent somewhat opposed it, and 24 percent opposed it strongly.

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