Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
March 8, 2011
General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices
• Commodity prices are now at red hot levels, but could be (price indices, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)=
150
propelled even higher by the current strong OECD recovery Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
• Many commodity prices are stretched way above long term 140 Energy
marginal costs, thus expect increasing volatility ahead Agriculture
•
130
Higher commodity prices are increasingly putting the global
recovery at risk with a potential contraction down the road 120
• If Gaddafi is toppled quickly the oil price will fall back, but a 90
smaller MENA risk premium will continue to linger
• There is a clear risk that Libya will experience an extended civil 80
nov-10
feb-10
feb-11
jan-10
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10
dec-10
jan-11
mar-11
war during which the oil price could trade close to $120/b
• If MENA contagion takes place with unrest in other large oil =
producing countries, the oil price could surpass the 2008 high
Sector performance last month
(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M 12
• Likely further Chinese efforts to curb inflation and lowered growth 10
YTD (%) MoM (%)
Agriculture
Industrial
Equities
Commodities
Energy
Precious
metals
metals
• Evidence that the current La Niña event has passed its peak and -6
started to weaken are growing stronger -10
Coffe, Arabica
Silver
Tin
Palladium
Platinum
Aluminium
Zinc
Lead
Gold
Corn
US Gasoline
Cocoa
Cotton
WTI
Sugar
Copper
CO2 (EUA)
US Nat. Gas
Soybeans
Power, Nordic
Steel
Nickel
US Heat. Oil
Power, Cont.
Brent
•
Wheat
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SEB Commodity Research
CRUDE OIL
=
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
j f m a m j j a s o n d
= =
OIL PRODUCTS
=
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
j f m a m j j a s o n d
= =
POWER
=
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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=
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Q
SEB Commodity Research
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
= =
FUTURES CURVES
=
WTI Brent
(NYMEX, $/b)= (ICE, $/b)=
108 117
107 116
106 115
105 114
113
104
112
103 111
102 110
101 109
100 108 11-01-31
99 107
106 11-02-28
98 11-01-31
97 105 11-03-04
11-02-28 104
96 103
11-03-04
95 102
94 101
93 100
92 99
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
=
= =
Heating oil US natural gas
(NYMEX, ¢/gal)= (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
322 6,50
318 11-01-31
6,25
314 11-02-28
6,00
310 11-03-04
5,75
306
302 5,50
298 5,25
11-01-31
294 5,00
11-02-28
290
11-03-04 4,75
286
4,50
282
278 4,25
274 4,00
270 3,75
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-11
aug-11
dec-11
apr-12
aug-12
dec-12
apr-13
aug-13
dec-13
apr-14
aug-14
dec-14
apr-15
aug-15
dec-15
apr-16
aug-16
dec-16
apr-17
aug-17
=
= =
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çìíäççâ=áë=çÄîáçìëäó=äÉëë=ÄêáÖÜí=çå=~=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=îáçä~íáçå= êÉëíêìÅíìêáåÖ= ~Åíáîáíó= áë= ÅçåíáåìáåÖ= íç= êÉëíçêÉ=
ÄÉäçï=íÜÉ=NOJãçåíÜ=~îÉê~ÖÉ=EAOQROMLíFK=
T
SEB Commodity Research
U
SEB Commodity Research
ALUMINIUM
=
2500 3000000
2250
2000 2000000
1750
1500 1000000
1250
1000 0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 = =
=
COPPER
=
10000
1200000
9000 SHFE
COMEX
8000 1000000
LME
7000
800000
6000
600000
5000
4000 400000
3000
200000
2000
1000 0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
= =
NICKEL
=
30000 100000
25000 80000
20000
60000
15000
40000
10000
5000 20000
0 0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
V
SEB Commodity Research
ZINC
=
2500 500000
400000
2000
300000
1500
200000
1000 100000
500 0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 = =
LEAD
=
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
= =
TIN
=
30000 35000
27000
30000
24000
25000
21000
18000 20000
15000 15000
12000
10000
9000
5000
6000
3000 0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
NM
SEB Commodity Research
STEEL
=
nov-10
nov-08
nov-09
nov-10
jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
sep-09
jan-10
mar-10
maj-10
jul-10
sep-10
jan-11
mar-11
jul-08
sep-08
jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
sep-09
jan-10
mar-10
maj-10
jul-10
sep-10
jan-11
= =
FUTURES CURVES
=
Aluminium Copper
(LME, $/t)= (LME, $/t)=
2825 10000
11-01-31 9900
2800
11-02-28 9800
2775 9700
11-03-04
2750 9600
2725 9500
9400
2700
9300
2675 9200
2650 9100
9000
2625
8900 11-01-31
2600 8800
11-02-28
2575 8700
8600 11-03-04
2550
8500
2525 8400
2500 8300
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
=
= =
Nickel Zinc
(LME, $/t)= (LME, $/t)=
29500 2575
29000
2550
28500 11-01-31
28000 11-02-28 2525
27500 11-03-04 2500
27000
2475
26500
26000 2450
25500
2425
25000
24500 2400 11-01-31
24000 2375 11-02-28
23500 11-03-04
2350
23000
22500 2325
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ
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SEB Commodity Research
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NO
SEB Commodity Research
GOLD
=
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 = =
=
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
= =
=
FUTURES CURVES
=
Gold Silver
(COMEX, $/ozt)= (COMEX, $/ozt)
1700 36
11-01-31
1675
1650 11-02-28 35
1625 11-03-04
34
1600
1575 33
1550
1525 32
11-01-31
1500 31 11-02-28
1475
11-03-04
1450 30
1425
1400 29
1375 28
1350
1325 27
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
sep-15
dec-15
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
jul-15
okt-15
jan-16
apr-16
jul-16
okt-16
=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
NP
SEB Commodity Research
AGRICULTURE
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qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä= ~å~äóëáë= ENNMPMPFW= ^åçíÜÉê= ÄìääáëÜ= íçé= Eåçï= ëìééçêíF= ~í= ¿NOVNLÄì= áë= êÉëéÉÅíÉÇI= íÜÉ=
ãçåíÜ= Ü~ë= ÄÉÉå= ~ÇÇÉÇ= ~åÇ= íÜÉ=OMMU=¿TSRLÄì=íçé=áë= êáëáåÖ=NOJãçåíÜ=~îÉê~ÖÉ=áë=çìí=çÑ=Ç~åÖÉê=~åÇ=ÑìêíÜÉê=
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ïáíÜáå= íÜÉ= 7RJáåJPÒI= ëìÖÖÉëíáåÖ= íÜÉêÉ= áë= ãçêÉ= íçé=áë=~äëç=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=îáçä~íÉÇ=ïáíÜ=~=cáÄç=~ííê~Åíáçå=
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NQ
=
CORN
=
600 140
500 120
400 100
300 80
200 60
100 40
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
= =
=
WHEAT
=
1100 mt
200
days of supply
1000
180
900
160
800
700 140
600 120
500
100
400
80
300
200 60
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
= =
SOYBEANS
=
80
1200
1000 60
800
40
600
400 20
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=
NR
=
SUGAR COFFEE
=
30 240
220
25 200
180
20
160
15 140
120
10
100
5 80
60
0 40
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
= =
=
=FUTURES CURVES
=
Corn Wheat
(CBOT, ¢/bu)= (CBOT, ¢/bu)=
750 940
930
725 11-01-31 920
700 11-02-28 910
900
11-03-04
675 890
880
650 870
860
625
850
600 840
830 11-01-31
575 820
810 11-02-28
550
800 11-03-04
525 790
780
500 770
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
= =
=
Soybeans Sugar
(CBOT, ¢/bu)= (CBOT, ¢/lb)=
1440 35
1420 34 11-01-31
11-01-31 33
1400 11-02-28
11-02-28 32
1380 31 11-03-04
11-03-04
1360 30
29
1340 28
1320 27
1300 26
25
1280 24
1260 23
22
1240
21
1220 20
1200 19
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=
NS
=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
=
=
EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next
Industrial production (%, YoY) 8,1 2010-12-31 8,0 2010-11-30 2011-03-14
Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,1 2010-12-31 1,4 2010-11-30 2011-03-14
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 80,0 2011-03-31 78,1 2010-12-31
Manufacturing PMI 59,0 2011-02-28 57,3 2011-01-31 2011-03-24
Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,0 2010-12-31 1,9 2010-09-30 2011-04-06
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,3 2010-12-31 0,3 2010-09-30 2011-04-06
CPI (%, YoY) 2,3 2011-01-31 2,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-16
CPI (%, MoM) -0,7 2011-01-31 0,6 2010-12-31 2011-03-16
Consumer confidence -10,0 2011-02-28 -11,2 2011-01-31 2011-03-23
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 5,2 2011-01-31 6,3 2010-12-31
Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,1 2011-01-31 1,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
Capacity utilization (%) 76,1 2011-01-31 76,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
Manufacturing PMI 61,4 2011-02-28 60,8 2011-01-31 2011-04-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,7 2010-12-31 3,2 2010-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 2,8 2010-12-31 2,6 2010-09-30 2011-03-25
CPI (%, MoM) 1,6 2011-01-31 1,5 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,4 2011-01-31 0,4 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,5 2010-12-31 102,1 2010-11-30
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 77,5 2011-02-28 74,2 2011-01-31 2011-03-11
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) 192 2011-02-28 63 2011-01-31 2011-04-01
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 4,7 2011-01-31 4,9 2010-12-31 2011-03-14
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 2,4 2011-01-31 3,3 2010-12-31 2011-03-14
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 89,3 2010-12-31 86,7 2010-11-30
Manufacturing PMI 52,9 2011-02-28 51,4 2011-01-31 2011-03-30
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) 2,2 2010-12-31 4,9 2010-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) -0,3 2010-12-31 0,8 2010-09-30 2011-03-10
CPI (%, YoY) -0,1 2011-02-28 0,0 2011-01-31 2011-03-25
CPI (%, MoM) -0,2 2011-01-31 -0,3 2010-12-31
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,9 2010-12-31 103,3 2010-11-30
Consumer confidence 41,1 2011-01-31 40,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-14
CHINA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 13,5 2010-12-31 13,3 2010-11-30 2011-03-11
Manufacturing PMI 52,2 2011-02-28 52,9 2011-01-31 2011-04-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 9,8 2010-12-31 9,6 2010-09-30 2011-04-15
CPI (%, YoY) 4,9 2011-01-31 4,6 2010-12-31 2011-03-11
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 100,5 2010-12-31 100,7 2010-11-30
Consumer confidence 100,4 2010-12-31 102,9 2010-11-30
Bank lending (%, YoY) 18,5 2011-01-31 19,9 2010-12-31
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 23,8 2010-12-31 24,0 2010-09-30
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 102,8 2010-12-31 102,5 2010-11-30
Global manufacturing PMI 57,8 2011-02-28 57,1 2011-01-31
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=
NT
=PERFORMANCE
=
=
Closing YTD 1m 1q 1y 5y
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1472,85 8,1 3,9 14,4 32,4 57,8
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1385,77 8,1 3,9 14,4 32,2 42,0
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1755,41 8,3 4,0 14,7 36,4 88,9
UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1639,24 13,7 9,1 17,6 27,1 44,7
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1362,88 5,7 0,7 14,4 24,3 70,8
UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2202,52 1,9 7,6 3,7 33,8 158,0
UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 2069,83 5,3 0,5 12,9 57,9 125,2
Baltic Dry Index 1346,00 -25,0 29,1 -37,9 -56,9 -49,8
Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 104,42 14,3 17,3 17,1 30,2 64,0
Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 115,97 22,4 16,2 26,9 47,7 80,7
Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2600,00 5,3 2,3 12,1 17,2 4,5
Copper (LME, $/t) 9895,00 3,1 -1,5 13,4 33,8 99,5
Nickel (LME, $/t) 28800,00 16,4 1,6 22,6 29,1 90,1
Zinc (LME, $/t) 2461,00 0,3 -1,8 10,9 8,9 4,4
Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 558,50 -2,0 1,1 7,9 19,8 N/A
Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1428,60 0,5 6,0 1,7 26,1 151,5
Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) 721,25 14,7 6,3 29,0 93,9 215,3
Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) 800,50 0,8 -6,2 8,5 63,2 114,3
Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) 1407,75 1,0 -1,8 8,3 51,0 137,3
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS
=
=
Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report March 15 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report March 11 www.opec.org
Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook March 8 www.eia.doe.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE March 10 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report March 24 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria June 8 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
CONTACT LIST
=
=
COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Terje Anderson Global Head of terje.anderson@seb.no +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76
Commodities
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
CORP. SALES
Mats Forsell Sales mats.forsell@seb.se +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Charlotte Aleblad Sales charlotte.aleblad@seb.se +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10
Katarina Johnsson Head of Corp. Sales katarina.johnsson@seb.se +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02
Maximilian Brodin Sales maximilian.brodin@seb.no +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27
INST. SALES
Arne Boberg Head of Inst. sales arne.boberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67
Karin Almgren Broker karin.almgren@seb.se +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative analyst christian.ekstrand@seb.se +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95
Andreas Hansson Sales andreas.x.hansson@seb.se +46 8 506 232 30 +46 70 772 30 64
TRADING
Mats Hedberg Chief Dealer mats.hedberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Stephan Roelly Trader stephan.roelly@seb.se +46 8 506 230 64 +46 73 517 77 39
=
TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Anders Söderberg Chief tech. analyst anders.soderberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1
Dag Müller Tech. analyst dag.muller@seb.no +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9
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