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SEB Commodities Monthly

March 8, 2011

Red lights flashing - volatility ahead


= N

General Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices
• Commodity prices are now at red hot levels, but could be (price indices, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)=
150
propelled even higher by the current strong OECD recovery Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
• Many commodity prices are stretched way above long term 140 Energy
marginal costs, thus expect increasing volatility ahead Agriculture


130
Higher commodity prices are increasingly putting the global
recovery at risk with a potential contraction down the road 120

Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  110


• We raise our 2011 average Brent price forecast to $96/b due to a
strong US recovery in combination with the MENA crisis 100

• If Gaddafi is toppled quickly the oil price will fall back, but a 90
smaller MENA risk premium will continue to linger
• There is a clear risk that Libya will experience an extended civil 80

nov-10
feb-10

feb-11
jan-10

mar-10

apr-10

maj-10

jun-10

jul-10

aug-10

sep-10

okt-10

dec-10

jan-11

mar-11
war during which the oil price could trade close to $120/b
• If MENA contagion takes place with unrest in other large oil =
producing countries, the oil price could surpass the 2008 high
Sector performance last month
(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  12
• Likely further Chinese efforts to curb inflation and lowered growth 10
YTD (%) MoM (%)

targets in the 2011-2015 five year plan cool down sector 8


sentiment to some extent
6
• However, tight supply, pre-summer restocking and solid global
4
expansion is likely to support elevated prices

2
A prolonged MENA crisis is likely to have a negative impact on
0
industrial metals demand through lowered global growth
expectations -2

Agriculture
Industrial
Equities

Commodities

Energy

Precious
metals

metals

Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M 


• We remain bullish gold as the MENA crisis continues and the
European sovereign debt crisis approaches another decisive
moment Winners & Losers last month
(closing prices, %)=
• Despite commodity driven inflation, central banks may continue to
22
refrain from hiking interest rates in order for the recovery to
18
consolidate further, thus creating an even more favourable
14
environment for gold
• Exceptionally strong physical silver demand has made COMEX 10

inventories fall to post-2006 lows and has pushed the futures 6

curve into backwardation 2

Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  -2

• Evidence that the current La Niña event has passed its peak and -6
started to weaken are growing stronger -10
Coffe, Arabica

Silver
Tin
Palladium
Platinum

Aluminium

Zinc
Lead

Gold

Corn
US Gasoline

Cocoa

Cotton
WTI
Sugar

Copper

CO2 (EUA)
US Nat. Gas

Soybeans

Power, Nordic
Steel

Nickel
US Heat. Oil
Power, Cont.

Brent


Wheat

We expect 2011 and the second half in particular to be dominated


by rising production estimates and falling prices in general
• However, for several crops both more acreage and favourable
=
crop development conditions are needed in order to start building `Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
inventories again =
Arrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specified period.

Bjarne Schieldrop (Chief Commodity Analyst) bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 92 48 92 30


Filip Petersson (Commodity Strategist) filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47
SEB Commodity Research

GENERAL
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SEB Commodity Research

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ÇÉëí~ÄáäáëáåÖ= ÉÑÑÉÅíë= çÑ= ëÉîÉê~ä= êÉÖáçå~ä= íÜÉ=Å~éáí~ä=qêáéçäáK=`çåëÉèìÉåíäóI=çáä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=
ÅçåÑäáÅíë= ~åÇ= äáâÉäó= íìêÄìäÉåÅÉ= ~ë= íÜÉ= éçëíJ ä~êÖÉäó= ÖêçìåÇ= íç= ~= Ü~äí= ~ë= ÑçêÉáÖå= éÉêëçååÉä=
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AVMLÄ= ~ë= íÜÉ= jbk^= êáëâ= éêÉãáìã= êÉÅÉÇÉëK= iáÄó~å=éêçÇìÅíáçå=ëÜçêíÑ~ääK==
jÉ~åïÜáäÉI= ÜáÖÜ= çáä= éêáÅÉë= ~êÉ= ÉñÉêíáåÖ= =
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cÉÄêì~êó= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ~ìíÜçêáíáÉë= äçïÉêÉÇ= íÜÉ= ÜáÖÜ= ~ë= ANVKQULÄI= ÇìÉ= íç= áåëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=
ÅçìåíêóÛë=OMNNJOMNR=ÖêçïíÜ=í~êÖÉíë=Ñêçã=UB=íç= áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ= íç= íê~åëéçêí= ÅêìÇÉ= çáä= Ñêçã=
~= ãçêÉ= ëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ= TBI= áå= íìêå= êÉÇìÅáåÖ= çìê= `ìëÜáåÖI= íÜÉ= éêáÅáåÖ= éçáåí= Ñçê= tqfI= íç=
äçåÖ=íÉêã=çáä=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=ëäáÖÜíäóK= ÅçåëìãÉêëK= fåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= áåÑäçïëI= íóéáÅ~ääó= Ñêçã=
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Ü~îÉ=ê~ääáÉÇ=ãçêÉ=íÜÉå=OPB=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=ä~ëí= ÅêìÇÉ= çáä= ãìëí= ÄÉ= íê~åëéçêíÉÇ= Äó= ê~áä= ~åÇ=êç~Ç=
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áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=Äó=~í=äÉ~ëí=NMMBK=píáääI=ÅìêêÉåí=ÅêìÇÉ=çáä= mêçàÉÅíë= íç= áãéêçîÉ= çìíÄçìåÇ= áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=
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ëíáää=êÉä~íáîÉäó=Ñê~ÖáäÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=êÉÅçîÉêóK=o~íÜÉê= Ñêçã=ÅçãéäÉíáçåK=
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çáä=éêáÅÉ=Ü~ë=~=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅí=çå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÖêçïíÜI= qç= ëìãã~êáëÉ= ã~àçê= çáä= ã~êâÉí= êÉéçêíë= áå=
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O
SEB Commodity Research

ïÉêÉ= ÄìääáëÜ= ~Åêçëë= íÜÉ= Äç~êÇK= qÜÉ= bf^= ÄÉÖ~å= cÉÄêì~êó= íç= ÅäçëÉ= ~í= bro= RQKPMLjtÜ= çå= íÜÉ=
Äó= ê~áëáåÖ= OMNM= ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= NRM= âÄLÇ= íç= USKTO= ä~ëí=Ç~ó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=ïÜáäÉ=voJNO=Ö~áåÉÇ=bro=
ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= OMNN= ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= NQM= âÄLÇ= íç= UUKNS= NKQMLjtÜ= íç= ÅäçëÉ= ~í= bro= QTKTRLjtÜK= tÉ=
ãÄLÇK= qÜÉ= fb^= ÑçääçïÉÇ= ëìáíI= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= OMNM= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= éêçãéí= éêáÅÉë= íç= ÅçãÉ= Ççïå= çîÉê=
ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= VM= âÄLÇ= íç= UTKUM= ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= OMNN= íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑÉï=ãçåíÜëI=Äìí=çåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=ëÉ~ëçå~ääó=
ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= NQM= âÄLÇ= íç= UVKPM= ãÄLÇK= lmb`= Ñ~ääáåÖ= Åçåëìãéíáçå= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= ~ÇîÉåí= çÑ= ëéêáåÖK=
ìéÖê~ÇÉÇ= OMNM= ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= ORM= âÄLÇ= íç= USKPQ= eçïÉîÉêI= ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë= êÉã~áå= ÉñíêÉãÉäó=
ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= OMNN= ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= QOM= âÄLÇ= íç= UTKTQ= êçÄìëí=ïáíÜ=~=ä~êÖÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áå=íÜÉ=ÜóÇêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=
ãÄLÇK= dÉåÉê~ääóI= êÉîáëáçåë= ïÉêÉ= ÇìÉ= íç= ãçêÉ= EÅìêêÉåíäó=JQP=qtÜF=~åÇ=îÉêó=ëíêçåÖ=ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉëK=
éçëáíáîÉ= îáÉïë= çå= ÖäçÄ~ä= ÖêçïíÜK= ^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ= íç= iççâáåÖ= ~í= íÜÉ= ÅìêîÉI= ÜÉÇÖáåÖ= äççâë= ãçëí=
íÜÉ=fb^I=çáä=ëìééäó=êçëÉ=RMM=âÄLÇ=áå=g~åì~êó=íç= ~ííê~ÅíáîÉ= Ñêçã= voJNO= ~åÇ= çìíI= ÉëéÉÅá~ääó= Ñçê=
UUKRM= ãÄLÇK= fí= ï~ë= ~äëç= êÉéçêíÉÇ= íÜ~í= lmb`= pïÉÇáëÜ=ÅçåëìãÉêë=ÖáîÉå=íÜÉ=ëíêçåÖ=pbhK=
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=

Monthly global demand estimates=


2010 Revision 2011 Revision
(mb/d) (kb/d) (mb/d) (kb/d)
IEA 87.80 +90 89.30 +140
EIA 86.72 +150 88.16 +140
OPEC 86.34 +250 87.74 +420
=
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çîÉêÜÉ~Ç= cáÄç= éêçàÉÅíáçåLêÉíê~ÅÉãÉåí= ~í= ANONKRMJ
NOPKRMLÄ= áë= íÜÉ= ~ííê~Åíáçå= ~êÉ~= ëÜçìäÇ= íÜÉ= êÉÅÉåí=
ANNVKUMLÄ= ÜáÖÜ= óáÉäÇ= íç= ÄìóáåÖ= éêÉëëìêÉK= ^ÄëÉåí= ~=
Ü~äí= áå= íÜÉ= äçï= ANOMëI= íÜÉêÉ= áë= êáëâ= çÑ= ~å= ÉñíÉåëáçå=
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=
kçêÇáÅ=mçïÉê
=
=

cÉÄêì~êó= ï~ë= ~Ö~áå=ÅçäÇ=ïáíÜ=ÜáÖÜI=ëí~ÄäÉ=ëéçí=


éêáÅÉëK=aÉëéáíÉ=äçï=íÉãéÉê~íìêÉë=íÜÉêÉ=ïÉêÉ=åç=
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~î~áä~Äáäáíó= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= ~ÄëÉåÅÉ= çÑ= ÄçííäÉåÉÅâë= çê=
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~åÇ=ÅçåíáåÉåí~ä=éçïÉê=ã~êâÉíë=ïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=ïÉ~â=
ÜóÇêç= Ä~ä~åÅÉ= íçÖÉíÜÉê= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= ÅçäÇ= ïÉ~íÜÉê=
ÉåëìêÉÇ=~=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ÜáÖÜ=éêçãéí=ÅìêîÉK==
=
póëíÉã= ëéçí= éêáÅÉë= áå= cÉÄêì~êó= ~îÉê~ÖÉÇ= bro=
SQKQSLjtÜ= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= pïÉÇáëÜ= éêáÅÉ= ~êÉ~= àìëí=
~ÄçîÉ= ~í= bro= SQKSRLjtÜK= ^= ÜìÖÉ= éêÉãáìã=
ëíáää=Éñáëíë=áå=íÜÉ=kçêÇáÅ=ëéçí=ã~êâÉí=Åçãé~êÉÇ=
íç= áíë= bìêçéÉ~å= éÉÉêI= ïáíÜ= dÉêã~å= ëéçí= éêáÅÉë=
~îÉê~ÖáåÖ= bro= RMKUSLjtÜ= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ=
éÉêáçÇK=kçêÇáÅ=éêçÇìÅÉêë=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=éêáÅÉ=íÜÉáê=
ï~íÉê= ÜáÖÜäóI= ÇêáîáåÖ= éêáÅÉë= çÑ= ÜóÇêç= éçïÉê=
ÖÉåÉê~íáçå=ï~ó=~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=Åçëí=çÑ=Åç~ä=ÖÉåÉê~íÉÇ=
éçïÉêK=
=
få= íÜÉ= Ñçêï~êÇ= ã~êâÉí= íÜÉ= ÅìêîÉ= êÉã~áåë= áå=
ëíêçåÖ= Ä~Åâï~êÇ~íáçå= ÑçääçïáåÖ= íÜÉ= ÅçäÇ=
ïáåíÉêK= nOJNN= Ö~áåÉÇ= bro= PKTRLjtÜ= áå=

P
SEB Commodity Research

CRUDE OIL
=

Crude oil price US crude oil inventories


(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)= (DOE, mb, weekly data)=
150 370
NYMEXWTI
140
ICE Brent
130
360
120
110
100 350
90
80 340
70
60
330
50
2006-2010 avg.
40
2010
30 320
2011
20
10 310
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
j f m a m j j a s o n d
= =
OIL PRODUCTS
=

Gasoline and heating oil prices Gasoline and distillate inventories


(NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, weekly closing)= (DOE, mb, weekly data)=
450 250
NYMEXGasoline
240
400 NYMEXHeating oil
230
220
350
210
300 200
190 Gasoline 2006-2010 avg.
250 180 Gasoline 2011
170 Distillate fuel oil 2006-2010 avg.
200 Distillate fuel oil 2011
160
150 150
140
100 130
120
50
110
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

j f m a m j j a s o n d
= =
POWER
=

Nordic power price Continental power price


(Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)= (EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
80 95
75 90
85
70
80
65 75
60 70
55 65
60
50
55
45 50
40 45
35 40
35
30
30
25 25
20 20
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

Q
SEB Commodity Research

CO2 NATURAL GAS


=

EUA price US natural gas prices


(ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 11, weekly closing) (NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=
35 15
14
13
30
12
11
25
10
9
20 8
7
6
15
5
4
10
3
2
5 1
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
=
= =
FUTURES CURVES
=

WTI Brent
(NYMEX, $/b)= (ICE, $/b)=
108 117
107 116
106 115
105 114
113
104
112
103 111
102 110
101 109
100 108 11-01-31
99 107
106 11-02-28
98 11-01-31
97 105 11-03-04
11-02-28 104
96 103
11-03-04
95 102
94 101
93 100
92 99
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15

=
= =
Heating oil US natural gas
(NYMEX, ¢/gal)= (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
322 6,50
318 11-01-31
6,25
314 11-02-28
6,00
310 11-03-04
5,75
306
302 5,50
298 5,25
11-01-31
294 5,00
11-02-28
290
11-03-04 4,75
286
4,50
282
278 4,25

274 4,00
270 3,75
apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-11
aug-11
dec-11
apr-12
aug-12
dec-12
apr-13
aug-13
dec-13
apr-14
aug-14
dec-14
apr-15
aug-15
dec-15
apr-16
aug-16
dec-16
apr-17
aug-17

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

R
SEB Commodity Research

=INDUSTRIAL METALS
=
=

oÉëáëí~åÅÉ= áë= ÅìêêÉåíäó= ÄìáäÇáåÖ= ïáíÜáå= íÜÉ= EHNKSBFK= lîÉê= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= éÉêáçÇ= íÜÉ= r_p=
ëÉÅíçê= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= ijb= áåÇÉñ= íê~ÇáåÖ= ëäáÖÜíäó= _äççãÄÉêÖ=`j`f=ëÉÅíçê=áåÇÉñ=Ö~áåÉÇ=PKRBK=
ëÜçêí= çÑ= áíë= OMMT= êÉÅçêÇ= ÜáÖÜ= ~ÑíÉê= Ü~îáåÖ= =
ê~ääáÉÇ=NTRB=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=OMMU=äçïK=qÜáë=áë=ÇìÉ=íç= ^äìãáåáìã
ÅçåëìãÉêë= ëáÇÉäáåÉÇ= éÉåÇáåÖ= ÄÉííÉê= ÄìóáåÖ= =
=

çééçêíìåáíáÉë= ~åÇ= ëÉîÉê~ä= ~ÇÇáíáçå~ä= ^äìãáåáìã=ÅäçëÉÇ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=rpa=OQVRJOSNTLí=áå=


ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~ä=Ñ~ÅíçêëK=`ÜáåÉëÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=Ü~îÉ= cÉÄêì~êó= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= ÄÉÖáååáåÖ= çÑ= j~êÅÜI= ÉåÇáåÖ=
äçïÉêÉÇ=íÜÉáê=~ååì~ä=ÖêçïíÜ=í~êÖÉí=Ñêçã=UB=íç= íÜÉ= éÉêáçÇ= OKSB= ÜáÖÜÉê= ~í= rpa= OSNTLíK= ^ÑíÉê=
TB= ~ë= é~êí= çÑ= íÜÉáê= OMNNJOMNR= ÑáîÉ= óÉ~ê= éä~åI= Ü~îáåÖ= êÉÅçîÉêÉÇ= ëÜ~êéäó= íç= àìëí= ÄÉäçï= áíë=
êÉÑçÅìëáåÖ= ã~êâÉí= ~ííÉåíáçå= çå= íÜÉ= èì~äáíó= çÑ= êÉÅçêÇ= ÜáÖÜ= áå= g~åì~êóI= ijb= ~äìãáåáìã=
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Åçìåí=áë=Ñ~îçìê~ÄäÉ=Ñçê=ÑìêíÜÉê=Ö~áåë=ÖçáåÖ=Ñçêï~êÇK= jáää= ã~êÖáåë= ~êÉ= ãìÅÜ= ÄÉííÉê= íÜ~å= íÜÉó= Ü~îÉ=
qÜÉ= ãçîÉ= ÜáÖÜÉê= ÇçÉë= åçí= äççâ= ïÉÇÖÉJäáâÉI= áKÉK= åç= ÄÉÉå= Ñçê= ~= äçåÖ= íáãÉ= ~äíÜçìÖÜ= ïÉëíÉêå=
íêÉåÇ= ÉåÇáåÖ= ÄÉÜ~îáçìêK= fÑ= éêáÅÉë= ÉñÅÉÉÇ= íÜÉ= OMMTJ ìíáäáò~íáçå=êÉã~áåë=äçïK=tÉ=ïçìäÇ=ÉñéÉÅí=ãçëí=
OMMU=RMB=éçáåí=~í=APMPORLíI=ïÉ=ëÉÉ=ÖççÇ=êÉ~ëçåë=íç= ëíÉÉä= éêçÇìÅÉêë= íç= ÄÉ= ÅçåëáÇÉêáåÖ= ÑìêíÜÉê=
íÉåí~íáîÉäó= í~êÖÉí= ~= APRPVRJPSNOMLí= ÅçãÄçK= qÜÉ= éêçÇìÅíáçå= áåÅêÉ~ëÉëK= få= nìÉÉåëä~åÇ=
çìíäççâ=áë=çÄîáçìëäó=äÉëë=ÄêáÖÜí=çå=~=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=îáçä~íáçå= êÉëíêìÅíìêáåÖ= ~Åíáîáíó= áë= ÅçåíáåìáåÖ= íç= êÉëíçêÉ=
ÄÉäçï=íÜÉ=NOJãçåíÜ=~îÉê~ÖÉ=EAOQROMLíFK=

T
SEB Commodity Research

áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ= ~åÇ= ÜçìëáåÖ= ~ÑíÉê= êÉÅÉåí= ëÉîÉêÉ=


ÑäççÇáåÖK=qÜÉ=êÉÖáçå=áë=ëíáää=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅáåÖ=áíë=ê~áå=
~åÇ= ëíçêã= ëÉ~ëçå= ïÜáÅÜ= Ü~ë= ÄÉÉå= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=
Éñ~ÖÖÉê~íÉÇ=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=Äó=i~=ká¥~K=tÉ=ÜçéÉ=íÜÉ=
ïÉ~íÜÉê= éÜÉåçãÉåçå= ïáää= ïÉ~âÉå= íçï~êÇë=
ãáÇJOMNNK= ^ìëíê~äá~å= ÅçâáåÖ= Åç~ä= éêçÇìÅíáçå= áë=
ëíáää= ëÉîÉêÉäó= áãé~ÅíÉÇK= tÉ= íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ= ÅçåíáåìÉ=
íç= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= ëÉ~ÄçêåÉ= ÅçâáåÖ= Åç~ä= ã~êâÉí= íç=
êÉã~áå= îÉêó= íáÖÜí= Ñçê= ã~åó= ãçåíÜë= óÉíK= qÜÉ=
ÖäçÄ~ä=ÉÅçåçãó=ëíáää=Öêçïë=ëíêçåÖäó=ïáíÜ=~=îÉêó=
ê~éáÇ= ~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáçå= áå= íÜÉ= rp= ~åÇ= ëçäáÇ= Ö~áåë= áå=
bìêçéÉK= lîÉê~ääI= ïÉ= ã~áåí~áå= ~= éçëáíáîÉ= îáÉï=
çå=ëíÉÉä=éêáÅÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë=ÖçáåÖ=Ñçêï~êÇ=ïáíÜ=
ëíê~áåë= áå= áêçå= çêÉ= ~åÇ= ÅçâáåÖ= Åç~ä= çå= íÜÉ= çåÉ=
Ü~åÇ=~åÇ=êáëáåÖ=ÇÉã~åÇ=çå=íÜÉ=çíÜÉêK=_~ëÉÇ=çå=
ÅìêêÉåí= éçëáíáîÉ= ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë= áå= bìêçéÉ= ïÉ=
ÉñéÉÅí= qìêâáëÜ= ãáääë= íç= êÉíìêå= çå= íÜÉ= Äìó= ëáÇÉI=
äáãáíáåÖ= ÑìêíÜÉê= ÇçïåëáÇÉ= áå= bìêçéÉ~å= ëÅê~é=
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ÇÉÅÉäÉê~íáçå=~ë=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=ëäçïëK=

U
SEB Commodity Research

ALUMINIUM
=

Aluminium price Aluminium inventories


(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)= (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
3500 5000000
SHFE
3250
COMEX
3000 4000000
LME
2750

2500 3000000

2250

2000 2000000

1750

1500 1000000

1250

1000 0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 = =
=

COPPER
=

Copper price Copper inventories


(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)= (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
11000 1400000

10000
1200000
9000 SHFE
COMEX
8000 1000000
LME
7000
800000
6000
600000
5000

4000 400000
3000
200000
2000

1000 0
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

= =
NICKEL
=

Nickel price Nickel inventories


(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
55000 180000
50000 160000
45000
140000
40000
120000
35000

30000 100000

25000 80000
20000
60000
15000
40000
10000

5000 20000

0 0
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

V
SEB Commodity Research

ZINC
=

Zinc price Zinc inventories


(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)= (LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
5000 1100000
1000000 SHFE
4500
LME
900000
4000
800000
3500
700000
3000 600000

2500 500000

400000
2000
300000
1500
200000
1000 100000
500 0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 = =
LEAD
=

Lead price Lead inventories


(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
4000 300000
275000
3500
250000
3000 225000
200000
2500
175000
2000 150000
125000
1500
100000
1000 75000
50000
500
25000
0 0
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

= =
TIN
=

Tin price Tin inventories


(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
40000
33000

30000 35000

27000
30000
24000
25000
21000

18000 20000

15000 15000
12000
10000
9000
5000
6000

3000 0
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

NM
SEB Commodity Research

STEEL
=

Steel price Steel inventories


(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
650 90000
625
600 80000
575
70000
550
525 60000
500
475 50000
450
425 40000
400
375 30000
350
20000
325
300 10000
275
250 0
nov-09

nov-10

nov-08

nov-09

nov-10
jan-09

mar-09

maj-09

jul-09

sep-09

jan-10

mar-10

maj-10

jul-10

sep-10

jan-11

mar-11

jul-08
sep-08

jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
sep-09

jan-10
mar-10
maj-10
jul-10
sep-10

jan-11
= =
FUTURES CURVES
=

Aluminium Copper
(LME, $/t)= (LME, $/t)=
2825 10000
11-01-31 9900
2800
11-02-28 9800
2775 9700
11-03-04
2750 9600
2725 9500
9400
2700
9300
2675 9200
2650 9100
9000
2625
8900 11-01-31
2600 8800
11-02-28
2575 8700
8600 11-03-04
2550
8500
2525 8400
2500 8300
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15

=
= =
Nickel Zinc
(LME, $/t)= (LME, $/t)=
29500 2575
29000
2550
28500 11-01-31
28000 11-02-28 2525
27500 11-03-04 2500
27000
2475
26500
26000 2450
25500
2425
25000
24500 2400 11-01-31
24000 2375 11-02-28
23500 11-03-04
2350
23000
22500 2325
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15

mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ

NN
SEB Commodity Research

=PRECIOUS METALS
=
=

få= çêÇÉê= íç= ÇêáîÉ= ÖçäÇ= éêáÅÉë= ÉîÉå= ÜáÖÜÉêI= lìíÑäçï= Ñêçã= éÜóëáÅ~ä= ÖçäÇ= bqc= ÜçäÇáåÖë=
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Ñçê= ëíêçåÖÉê= çáä= éêáÅÉë= íç= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó= ëäçï= ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= NR= íçååÉë= ëáåÅÉ= íÜÉ= ÉåÇ=g~åì~êó=~åÇ=
lb`a= êÉÅçîÉêóK= `ìêêÉåí= áåÇáÅ~íáçåë= ëìÖÖÉëí= åçï= ëí~åÇ= ~í= OMNS= íçååÉë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ~=
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ïáíÜ=NMJóÉ~ê=óáÉäÇë=ëìÄëí~åíá~ääó=ÉñÅÉÉÇáåÖ=TBI= Gold and currencies vs. USD last month


~å= ìåëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ= ëáíì~íáçå= ÉåÇìêÉÇ= Äó= ÄçíÜ= 7
dêÉÉÅÉ=~åÇ=fêÉä~åÇ=ÉîÉå=áÑ=Ñçê=çåäó=íïç=ïÉÉâëK= 6
YTD (%) MoM (%)

mêÉëëìêÉ= íç= ~ÅÅÉéí=ÄÉáåÖ=Ä~áäÉÇ=çìí=áë=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=


5
áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖK=eçïÉîÉêI=~ë=íÜÉ=ÇÉÅáëáçå=íç=Éñé~åÇ=
4
bcpc=äÉåÇáåÖ=Å~é~Åáíó=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=~í=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=
j~êÅÜI= ëìÅÜ= ~= êÉèìÉëí= ã~ó= éêçÄ~Ääó= åçí= ÄÉ= 3

ã~ÇÉ= íáää= ~ÑíÉêï~êÇëK= tçêêáÉë= ~êÉ= ~äëç=ÄìáäÇáåÖ= 2


íÜ~í=fêÉä~åÇ=ã~ó=åÉÉÇ=~=ÑìêíÜÉê=ëìééçêíK= 1
= 0
`çããçÇáíó= éêáÅÉ= ÇêáîÉå= áåÑä~íáçå= áë= ÄÉÅçãáåÖ=
-1
áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= Ñçê= íÜÉ= lb`a= ÉîÉå=
-2
íÜçìÖÜ= ÅÉåíê~ä= Ä~åâë= ~êÉ= ëíáää= ãçåáíçêáåÖ=
ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë= ê~íÜÉê= íÜ~å= ~Åíì~ääó= ê~áëáåÖ= GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB
áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉëI= ÜçéáåÖ= áåëíÉ~Ç= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= éêçÄäÉã= =
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
áë=íÉãéçê~êóK= =
=

NO
SEB Commodity Research

GOLD
=

Gold price Gold to silver ratio


(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)= (front month, weekly closing)=
1500 88
1400 84
1300 80
1200 76
1100 72
1000 68
900 64
800 60
700 56
600 52
500 48
400 44
300 40
200 36

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 = =
=

SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM


=

Silver price Platinum and palladium prices


(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)= (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
38 1100 2300
36
34 1000 Palladium (left axis) 2050
32 Platinum (right axis)
30 900
1800
28 800
26
24 1550
700
22
20 600 1300
18
16 500
1050
14
400
12
800
10 300
8
6 550
200
4
2 100 300
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

= =
=

FUTURES CURVES
=

Gold Silver
(COMEX, $/ozt)= (COMEX, $/ozt)
1700 36
11-01-31
1675
1650 11-02-28 35
1625 11-03-04
34
1600
1575 33
1550
1525 32
11-01-31
1500 31 11-02-28
1475
11-03-04
1450 30
1425
1400 29
1375 28
1350
1325 27
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
sep-15
dec-15
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
jul-15
okt-15
jan-16
apr-16
jul-16
okt-16

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

NP
SEB Commodity Research

AGRICULTURE
=

tÉ= ÉñéÉÅí= ÖäçÄ~ä= ïÉ~íÜÉê= ÅçåÇáíáçåë= íç= ÅçãéäÉíÉÇK= fåáíá~ä= ëìééçêí= áë= äáâÉäó= Ü~äÑ= ï~ó= Ççïå=
åçêã~äáòÉ= åç= ä~íÉê= íÜ~å= eOJNN= ~åÇ= íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ= ä~ëí=ãçåíÜÛë=ê~åÖÉ=~êçìåÇ=¿SVMLÄìK=
ëÉÉ=~=ëìÄëí~åíá~ä=ÇçïåëáÇÉ=êáëâ=áå=~ÖêáÅìäíìê~ä= =
ÅçããçÇáíáÉë= ÉîÉå= íÜçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= Éñ~Åí= íáãáåÖ= çÑ= tÜÉ~í
íÜÉ= ÅçêêÉÅíáçå= áë= ÇáÑÑáÅìäí= íç= éêÉÇáÅíK= jçëí= i~= =
=

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áë= ÄÉÖáååáåÖ= íç= É~ëÉK= ^í= íÜÉ= ãçãÉåíI= QKUB= äçïÉê= ~í= ¿UMMLÄìK= ^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ= íç= íÜÉ=
åçêã~äáòÉÇ= ÅçåÇáíáçåë= ~äêÉ~Çó= íÜáë= ëìããÉê= cÉÄêì~êó= t^pabI= ÖäçÄ~ä= ïÜÉ~í= éêçÇìÅíáçåI=
~ééÉ~ê= ~ë= äáâÉäó= ~ë= ~= ïÉ~â= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= ÉîÉåí= ÇÉã~åÇ= ~åÇ= ÉåÇáåÖ= ëíçÅâë= Éëíáã~íÉë= ÅÜ~åÖÉÇ=
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ÄçíÜ= Ñ~îçìê~ÄäÉ= ïÉ~íÜÉê= ~åÇ= ãçêÉ= ~ÅêÉ~ÖÉ= Eíç= SQRKQN= ãíI= SSRKOP= ãí= ~åÇ= NTTKTT= ãíI=
åÉñí= Åêçé= óÉ~ê= íç= Éå~ÄäÉ= ~= ëí~êí= íç= êÉÄìáäÇáåÖ= êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóFK= tÜÉ~í= êÉí~áåë= íÜÉ= äÉ~ëí= ÄìääáëÜ=
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ÖêçìåÇ= íç= ÅçîÉê= ~í= ÜáÖÜÉê= äÉîÉäë= ÄÉÑçêÉ= íÜÉ= ÅóÅäÉ= áë= ~í=¿NTMMLÄì=äççãáåÖK=

NQ
=

CORN
=

Corn price Corn year end inventories


(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
800 180
mt
700 160 days of supply

600 140

500 120

400 100

300 80

200 60

100 40

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
= =
=

WHEAT
=

Wheat price Wheat year end inventories


(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
1200 220

1100 mt
200
days of supply
1000
180
900
160
800

700 140

600 120
500
100
400
80
300

200 60
00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

= =
SOYBEANS
=

Soybean price Soybean year end inventories


(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
1800 120
mt
1600 days of supply
100
1400

80
1200

1000 60

800
40
600

400 20
00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=

NR
=

SUGAR COFFEE
=

Sugar price Coffee price (Arabica)


(NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)= (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)=
40 300
280
35
260

30 240
220
25 200
180
20
160
15 140
120
10
100

5 80
60
0 40
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
= =
=

=FUTURES CURVES
=

Corn Wheat
(CBOT, ¢/bu)= (CBOT, ¢/bu)=
750 940
930
725 11-01-31 920
700 11-02-28 910
900
11-03-04
675 890
880
650 870
860
625
850
600 840
830 11-01-31
575 820
810 11-02-28
550
800 11-03-04
525 790
780
500 770
mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13
= =
=

Soybeans Sugar
(CBOT, ¢/bu)= (CBOT, ¢/lb)=
1440 35
1420 34 11-01-31
11-01-31 33
1400 11-02-28
11-02-28 32
1380 31 11-03-04
11-03-04
1360 30
29
1340 28
1320 27
1300 26
25
1280 24
1260 23
22
1240
21
1220 20
1200 19
apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13
mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=

NS
=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
=
=
EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next
Industrial production (%, YoY) 8,1 2010-12-31 8,0 2010-11-30 2011-03-14
Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,1 2010-12-31 1,4 2010-11-30 2011-03-14
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 80,0 2011-03-31 78,1 2010-12-31
Manufacturing PMI 59,0 2011-02-28 57,3 2011-01-31 2011-03-24
Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,0 2010-12-31 1,9 2010-09-30 2011-04-06
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,3 2010-12-31 0,3 2010-09-30 2011-04-06
CPI (%, YoY) 2,3 2011-01-31 2,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-16
CPI (%, MoM) -0,7 2011-01-31 0,6 2010-12-31 2011-03-16
Consumer confidence -10,0 2011-02-28 -11,2 2011-01-31 2011-03-23
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 5,2 2011-01-31 6,3 2010-12-31
Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,1 2011-01-31 1,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
Capacity utilization (%) 76,1 2011-01-31 76,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
Manufacturing PMI 61,4 2011-02-28 60,8 2011-01-31 2011-04-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,7 2010-12-31 3,2 2010-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 2,8 2010-12-31 2,6 2010-09-30 2011-03-25
CPI (%, MoM) 1,6 2011-01-31 1,5 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,4 2011-01-31 0,4 2010-12-31 2011-03-17
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,5 2010-12-31 102,1 2010-11-30
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 77,5 2011-02-28 74,2 2011-01-31 2011-03-11
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) 192 2011-02-28 63 2011-01-31 2011-04-01
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 4,7 2011-01-31 4,9 2010-12-31 2011-03-14
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 2,4 2011-01-31 3,3 2010-12-31 2011-03-14
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 89,3 2010-12-31 86,7 2010-11-30
Manufacturing PMI 52,9 2011-02-28 51,4 2011-01-31 2011-03-30
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) 2,2 2010-12-31 4,9 2010-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) -0,3 2010-12-31 0,8 2010-09-30 2011-03-10
CPI (%, YoY) -0,1 2011-02-28 0,0 2011-01-31 2011-03-25
CPI (%, MoM) -0,2 2011-01-31 -0,3 2010-12-31
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,9 2010-12-31 103,3 2010-11-30
Consumer confidence 41,1 2011-01-31 40,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-14
CHINA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 13,5 2010-12-31 13,3 2010-11-30 2011-03-11
Manufacturing PMI 52,2 2011-02-28 52,9 2011-01-31 2011-04-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 9,8 2010-12-31 9,6 2010-09-30 2011-04-15
CPI (%, YoY) 4,9 2011-01-31 4,6 2010-12-31 2011-03-11
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 100,5 2010-12-31 100,7 2010-11-30
Consumer confidence 100,4 2010-12-31 102,9 2010-11-30
Bank lending (%, YoY) 18,5 2011-01-31 19,9 2010-12-31
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 23,8 2010-12-31 24,0 2010-09-30
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 102,8 2010-12-31 102,5 2010-11-30
Global manufacturing PMI 57,8 2011-02-28 57,1 2011-01-31
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=

NT
=PERFORMANCE
=
=
Closing YTD 1m 1q 1y 5y
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1472,85 8,1 3,9 14,4 32,4 57,8
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1385,77 8,1 3,9 14,4 32,2 42,0
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1755,41 8,3 4,0 14,7 36,4 88,9
UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1639,24 13,7 9,1 17,6 27,1 44,7
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1362,88 5,7 0,7 14,4 24,3 70,8
UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2202,52 1,9 7,6 3,7 33,8 158,0
UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 2069,83 5,3 0,5 12,9 57,9 125,2
Baltic Dry Index 1346,00 -25,0 29,1 -37,9 -56,9 -49,8

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 104,42 14,3 17,3 17,1 30,2 64,0
Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 115,97 22,4 16,2 26,9 47,7 80,7
Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2600,00 5,3 2,3 12,1 17,2 4,5
Copper (LME, $/t) 9895,00 3,1 -1,5 13,4 33,8 99,5
Nickel (LME, $/t) 28800,00 16,4 1,6 22,6 29,1 90,1
Zinc (LME, $/t) 2461,00 0,3 -1,8 10,9 8,9 4,4
Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 558,50 -2,0 1,1 7,9 19,8 N/A
Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1428,60 0,5 6,0 1,7 26,1 151,5
Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) 721,25 14,7 6,3 29,0 93,9 215,3
Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) 800,50 0,8 -6,2 8,5 63,2 114,3
Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) 1407,75 1,0 -1,8 8,3 51,0 137,3
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS
=
=
Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report March 15 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report March 11 www.opec.org
Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook March 8 www.eia.doe.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE March 10 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report March 24 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria June 8 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
CONTACT LIST
=
=
COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Terje Anderson Global Head of terje.anderson@seb.no +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76
Commodities
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
CORP. SALES
Mats Forsell Sales mats.forsell@seb.se +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Charlotte Aleblad Sales charlotte.aleblad@seb.se +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10
Katarina Johnsson Head of Corp. Sales katarina.johnsson@seb.se +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02
Maximilian Brodin Sales maximilian.brodin@seb.no +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27
INST. SALES
Arne Boberg Head of Inst. sales arne.boberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67
Karin Almgren Broker karin.almgren@seb.se +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative analyst christian.ekstrand@seb.se +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95
Andreas Hansson Sales andreas.x.hansson@seb.se +46 8 506 232 30 +46 70 772 30 64
TRADING
Mats Hedberg Chief Dealer mats.hedberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Stephan Roelly Trader stephan.roelly@seb.se +46 8 506 230 64 +46 73 517 77 39
=
TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Anders Söderberg Chief tech. analyst anders.soderberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1
Dag Müller Tech. analyst dag.muller@seb.no +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9

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