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The 3F0 System

A Profitable, Proven, FREE Laying System

Brought to you by

Richard Ashdown

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Table of Contents

Contents
The 3F0 System ................................................................................................................................. 1
Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................... 2
Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 3
Responsible Gambling ................................................................................................................... 4
Rules ............................................................................................................................................. 5
Worked Examples of 3F0 Selections ............................................................................................... 6
Reality Check! .............................................................................................................................. 13
Betting Banks .............................................................................................................................. 14
Betting Bank and Staking Plans ................................................................................................ 14
Appendix – How To Lay on Betfair ............................................................................................... 16
1. Select a Market ................................................................................................................ 16
2. Placing a lay bet ............................................................................................................... 17
3. Liability ............................................................................................................................ 17

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Introduction
Hi there, and thanks for downloading your free copy of 3F0, the weird-sounding system with a big
track record of profits. I’m sure you’re going to really enjoy my 3F0 System, so before I tell you how
to use it, let me give you a brief background on the system.

3F0 may seem like an odd name for a system, but it does actually mean something. We are
specifically interested in trying to beat the third favourite (or 3F), with a ‘0’ implying it was beaten.
Hence the name, 3F0!

The 3F0 system was derived from extensive form study of the top three market positions and the
core variables that most notably affected their performance as a group overall. During my studies, I
discovered that there were some fine opportunities for laying third choices in the betting under
some specific conditions.

Reasons for this are logical. Firstly, there are at least two better fancied horses in the market. The
first and second favourites win 53% of races between them, whereas third favourites as a group win
on average around 13-14% of races.

In other words, third favourites LOSE more than 86% of the time!

Now before you go off to oppose every third favourite you can find, don’t forget that strike rate is
only one part of the equation. You see, if all third choices in the market were sent off at odds of
10/1, we would be able to make money by blindly backing them. Confused? Don’t be.

Quite simply, the point I’m making is that we need to find the right balance between the odds on
offer and the likelihood of the horse winning (or losing, to put that another way).

When constructing 3F0, I researched hundreds and hundreds of combinations of race types, odds
ranges, race classes, and their relationship to recent performance and fitness.

My findings are summarized in the seven simple rules of 3F0, and are explained and illustrated in the
following sections.

So let’s get cracking.

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Responsible Gambling

Gambling as a recreation is a fascinating, exhilarating, and sometimes profitable pastime. However,

it can also lead to pain, misery and debt.

We believe in responsible gambling and respectfully remind users of 3F0 to only ever gamble with
money they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about gambling related matters, GamCare can help. They are a free provider of
counselling and support, which can be undertaken anonymously. More information can be found
from their website at http://www.gamcare.org.uk/

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Rules
There are seven rules for 3F0, as shown below. Each should be clear, and for the avoidance of all
doubt, illustrated examples are included in the next section.

1. UK only
My research was carried out exclusively on UK racing. I cannot say the system will
work or fail elsewhere, only that I have no evidence to support that.

2. Handicaps (turf and all-weather flat, chase, and hurdles)

Handicap races are a great place to look for fancied horses to oppose, due to the
combination of competition (created by the weight differentials carried by entries, based on their
ability) and the market’s preoccupation with the first few horses in the betting.

3. Number of Runners - Between 10 & 15 (inclusive)

Nice and competitive is how we want our races. Hard luck stories are a layer’s
paradise.

4. Odds at race time - Between 3/1 & 15/2 (inclusive)

Most third favourites will fall into this range, but it also disqualifies those races
where there is a big-priced horse in the third market slot. Although those only win as often
(in fact, slightly less often) as other 3f’s, the inflated prices mean it is very difficult to beat
the odds in such cases.

5. Position In Odds Market - 3rd favourite (including joint/co favs when checking the live
odds)
As I’ve mentioned, this does seem to be a blind spot in the market under certain
conditions. Moreover, there is plenty of liquidity on the exchanges for those of us looking to oppose
certain market third choices.

6. Horses Last Race - most recent run – Must have finished 2nd or 3rd
The general betting public seem to treat horses which finished in the places last time
as much the same as horses who won last time. They treat horses which finished in the first three
last time as superior to those who did not.

My research has clearly shown that last time out winners are dangerous on their next run, to the
point where they make only a marginal profit for layers. In terms of keeping strike rate as high as
possible for us layers, I decided to omit them even though they would have added another 1-1.5% to
the returns.

The other thing to note with horses which finished in the places last time, is that many of them are
perennial place horses that very rarely win. Again, these are heavenly horses for layers.

7. Days Since Last Run - Between 1 & 31 days (inclusive)

A recent run is deemed important for most horses, as it apparently demonstrates
fitness. However, the importance of a recent run does seem to be over-emphasised by the betting
public. As with last time out finishing position, the odds on horses which have had a recent run are
generally shorter than those who have not, despite their winning percentage being similar.

In other words, although they win with roughly the same frequency, recent runners are over-bet
which presents us layers with profitably opportunities to oppose them!

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Worked Examples of 3F0 Selections

So, let’s go to www.sportinglife.com and find the races and runners we’ll be interested in today.
Firstly, head on over to http://horses.sportinglife.com/Meetings/ and look for potential qualifying
races. To do this, make a note of all handicap races, with between ten and fifteen runners.

All of the handicaps are flagged by a green star above, except those with less than ten runners or
more than fifteen runners. We are not interested in those races. I also make note of races with 16 or
17 runners, as these often have withdrawals that can bring them into the qualifying range.

Next then, we’ll click on the race itself to look for the additional qualifying criteria.

We’re looking on the right hand side to see the odds of the horses, and we’re specifically interested
in the horse(s) with the third shortest odds, or the third favourite(s). Note that it is possible for more
than one horse to qualify, when there are joint- or co-third favourites.

We also need the odds of the third favourite horse(s) to be between 3/1 and 15/2 (inclusive).
That is, we are looking for clear, joint- or co-third favourites.

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So, our last step is to check that they finished 2nd or 3rd on their last run, and that the last run was
within 31 days. We can see that of the first four in the early betting, Circus Clown finished 1st last
time out (the ‘1’ directly to the left of the horse’s name); Willie Hall finished 2nd last time out; Texas
Hold Em finished 4th last time out; and, Quacity finished 2nd last time out. All raced within 31 days.

So, if either of Willie Hall or Quacity are third favourite (including a share of that position) before the
race, they will qualify.

So, we have two possible qualifiers in this race.

Here’s the pre-race betting:

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Willie Hall is third favourite at 9/2. The latest odds are shown in blue bold font. He was one of our
possible selections, so we will LAY Willie Hall. In other words, we want Willie to lose the race.

The result? Willie Hall ran well, but not well enough, and could only finish second, meaning a nice
profit for us.

Let’s take a look at our other candidate races, at Wolverhampton this evening.

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The first five in the early betting are all squeezed between 7/2 and 5/1 here, but the only one who
was 2nd or 3rd last time out, and ran in the last 31 days is Meydan Style. As such, he is a potential
qualifier if he’s 3rd favourite before the race.

A check of the pre-race betting shows the following:

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Hmm, an interesting situation here and one to be aware of. There was in fact, NO 3rd FAVOURITE in
this race. Why? How?!

Quite simply, when there are joint- or co-second favourites, there cannot be a third favourite. In this
example, Aggbag was the 5/2 favourite, and then Lady Rossetti and Meydan Style were the joint-
second favourites. Then, Polemica was the fourth favourite (i.e. there were three horses at shorter
odds in the race).

While that maybe seems a bit strange, I hope it makes sense.

So, nothing for us here. What about the 7:00 race?

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Finally, we’re interested in the 7.00 race at Wolverhampton. The runners for that race are on the
next page:

It looks as though there will be no selection here, although if Valmina, the current second favourite,
drifted out to third choice in the market just before the race, he would be a qualifier.

Remember, we are looking for the pre-race third favourite. So now we need to check the odds as
close to the race time as possible, to check if our horse(s) is 3rd choice with odds of 3/1 up to 15/2.

So we go to the Live Shows page at http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/liveshows/

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As per the early betting, Sir Nod was indeed the third favourite – at 7/1 – and, as such, we had no
action in this race.

So just the one qualifier today and a nice winner for us. Checking the likely races in the morning
takes no longer than ten minutes on a busy Saturday and more like five minutes most days.

Then it’s just a case of having a look at the pre-race odds to see whether our horses are third
favourite and in the right odds bracket. If they are, you know what to do: lay them to lose!

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Reality Check!

Now, a quick word of caution. Although this system is well proven over the last four years, returning
a healthy profit in each, we do lay winners.

In other words, sometimes, we place a bet to win £10 and lose £40, £50 or even £80. These things
happen, and it is part of the layers’ mindset to manage this accordingly.

The flip side is that over those four years, we have laid losers 89% of the time. Or, to put that as a
ratio, eight out of every nine runners we lay are beaten, meaning a profit for us.

But, as I say, winners (and therefore losers for us) do happen, and we have to be prepared for them,
which leads me nicely onto the subject of betting banks.

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Betting Banks
Betting Bank and Staking Plans

This is a key part of a disciplined approach to using a system or a portfolio of systems. It is imperative
to understand the strike rate of a system over time, and the average odds, so that you can calculate
the number of units into which to divide your betting bank.

Remember also that a betting bank is whatever amount of money you have to play with (and I do
mean ‘play with’. I hope everyone understands that we bet for fun and a little profit, rather than to
retire to a Caribbean island ;-), divided by the number of units required.

So in the case of 3F0 System, we know that we win on average 89% of the time. We also know that
an average loser will cost us around six points. In the historical testing period, the biggest drawdown
(i.e. range from profit peak to loss trough) was in May 2009, when the system lost around 40 points.

This was exceptional and was sandwiched between a profit of 22 points before, and a profit of – wait
for it – 116.5 points (!) afterwards.

The disciplined bettor with a betting bank would have enjoyed that glorious run of profit after the
bad run. The ‘unlucky’ (or undisciplined) bettor would be bemoaning the system and moving on to
the next ‘silver bullet’ system. Don’t let that be you!

So, I recommend the following for 3F0. Either use level stakes from a bank of sixty points, or stake
1.75% of your bank per selection.

In the first instance, your stake will always be the same. In the second, your stake will fall and rise as
your overall bank does.

Personally, I slightly favour the percentage of bank approach, as it gives me the chance to leverage
my profits. Of course, I also have to ride out the losing runs.

To be absolutely clear on this, if you can afford to lose £100 (and are prepared to!), then that should
be your starting bank. If £1000 is the right number for you, then that’s fine too. This is absolutely
personal to you, but of course it should be an amount of money that you can afford – and are
prepared – to lose.

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Below is a small table that highlights recommended staking, based on starting bank and whether you
choose a level stake or percentage stake. I have shown three different percentages, ranging from the
reasonably conservative (1.5%) through the recommended (1.75%) to the reasonably aggressive
(2%).

Starting Bank (60 points) Level Stakes 1.50% 1.75% 2%

£100.00 £1.67 £1.50 £1.75 £2.00
£150.00 £2.50 £2.25 £2.63 £3.00
£200.00 £3.33 £3.00 £3.50 £4.00
£250.00 £4.17 £3.75 £4.38 £5.00
£300.00 £5.00 £4.50 £5.25 £6.00
£400.00 £6.67 £6.00 £7.00 £8.00
£500.00 £8.33 £7.50 £8.75 £10.00
£600.00 £10.00 £9.00 £10.50 £12.00
£700.00 £11.67 £10.50 £12.25 £14.00
£800.00 £13.33 £12.00 £14.00 £16.00
£900.00 £15.00 £13.50 £15.75 £18.00
£1,000.00 £16.67 £15.00 £17.50 £20.00

Remember, this is the amount we are seeking to win on our first bet. Our liability (i.e. the amount
we risk) will be higher.

For instance, if our first qualifying horse has Betfair odds of 6.0 (5/1 in ‘old money’), and we have a
£300 starting bank, we’d risk £25 to win £5 using level stakes.

Using the same horse at the same odds with a 1.5% of bank approach, we’d risk £22.50 to win £4.50
on that first bet.

The difference is that with the level stakes approach, we’d always be seeking to win that fixed
amount of money, whereas with the percentage of bank, we’d be looking to win a fixed percentage
(which equates to a variable amount of money, depending on how our bank has grown). Clear?
Great! 

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Appendix – How To Lay on Betfair

Whilst most people are familiar with the betting exchanges, most notably Betfair, for those who are
yet to discover the joys of these marketplaces, there follows a short laying tutorial.

This information is taken from the help pages on the Betfair website.

1. Select a Market

Whether backing or laying simply click the sport you wish to bet on in the left hand menu.

For example if you wish to bet on golf, select golf then an event within golf such as the US
Masters. This then opens up all the markets available within the event the US Masters. Click
on any market you wish and the matrix of numbers will be displayed on the screen. In the
example below the Winner market has been selected.

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Follow the same steps if you wish to bet any sport whether it be horseracing, soccer, or
rugby.

2. Placing a lay bet

Select the market as outlined in placing a bet above.

Then click on the lay side, in the following example you are laying Phil Mickelson at odds of
9.0. The backer is staking £10.

Your liability of £80 is taken from your balance as this is your worst case scenario. The
payout will be £90 but that includes the stake from the backer. If this bet was matched, there
would effectively be a pot of £90 for someone to collect - the backer's £10 stake, and the
layer's £80 liability

If Phil Mickelson wins the tournament you have to pay £80 to the winning customer. If any
other player wins the tournament you win £10 less commission. When laying a bet, you can
only win the other person's stake.

In the example outlined above you will notice that the market is not completely formed.
There aren't many offers on the screen and there is a gap between the best prices to back and
lay Phil Mickelson. In this instance if you don't want to lay the selection at 9.0 you could
make an offer in between 6.0 and 9.0. This is explained in asking for a price in the previous
article. Your offer would then appear in the back column waiting for someone who may think
your offer is value and will back the selection.

3. Liability

This is the amount you could lose in your worst-case scenario. When backing it is simply the
stake which you place. When laying however it is the amount it will cost you if your selection
wins. Either way, it is how much you are risking.

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Ensure you monitor how much you are liable for.

NB - Be very watchful of where you put the decimal point. If you want to lay a bet at 4.2
make sure it is just that and not 42... otherwise it will be an expensive mistake should your
selection win. One thing's certain though, Betfair will only let you risk as much as is in your
account and at the best available odds.

If you lay multiple selections in a field your liabilities don't accumulate, your bets offset each
other providing the market only has one winner. Use the 'What if' function (as detailed in the
next article) to test it out for yourself.

For more detailed information on lay betting and its advantages click here.

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