Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753

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Sedimentary Geology

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/sedgeo

Sedimentary fills and sensitivity analysis of deep lacustrine facies in

multi-segment rift basins: Insights from 3D forward modeling
Chengcheng Zhang a,b,⁎, Christopher A. Scholz b, Ashley D. Harris c
a
Nanjing Center, China Geological Survey, Nanjing 210016, China
b
204 Heroy Geology Laboratory, Department of Earth Sciences, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244, USA
c
Chevron Energy Technology Company, Houston, TX 77002, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This article presents a series of stratigraphic forward simulations of deep lacustrine sedimentary fills of
Received 8 June 2020 continental multi-segment rift basins. These models integrate basin filling with the evolution of the extrabasinal
Received in revised form 24 August 2020 catchment area, and relate tectonism and precipitation fluctuations to changes in lake level and sediment supply.
Accepted 24 August 2020
The models reproduce the physical processes acting on the whole depositional environment from the site of ero-
Available online 27 August 2020
sion in the catchment area to deposition deep in the basin, and capture the complexity and variability of
Editor: Dr. Jasper Knight lacustrine rift basins. Results from these simulations show: (1) both extremely arid and extremely high-
precipitation conditions are not favorable for the development of a large proportional volume of deep lacustrine
Keywords: facies in rift basins; (2) an increase of basin subsidence rate or a decrease of erosion rate in the source area in-
Deep lacustrine fills creases both the proportional volumes of deep lacustrine sediment contained within the total rift fill and sand-
Stratigraphic forward modeling rich sediment contained within deep lacustrine facies; (3) the development of deep lacustrine facies is more sen-
Source to sink sitive to basin subsidence and source erosion under very high-precipitation conditions; and (4) under various
Rift basins scenarios of basin subsidence and source area erosion, the proportion and style of deep-water sand accumulation
is shown to be insensitive to climate conditions. Our simulations shed light on deep lacustrine fills in lacustrine
rift basins and deepen the understanding of the influences of different conditions of evaporation-precipitation
(from arid to humid), subsidence rates (e.g., reflecting end-member processes of continental extension), and ero-
sion rates (e.g., reflecting varying bedrock terranes within the catchment), which help predict favorable condi-
tions for the development of lacustrine source rocks and deep-water hydrocarbon reservoirs.
© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Ancient lacustrine rift basins comprise an important class of oil and
gas-bearing basins (Hedberg, 1968; Katz, 1990). The occurrence, distri-
bution, and character of deep lacustrine facies and associated sedimen-
tary fills in such basins are directly linked to the development and
quality of source rocks and hydrocarbon potential. Deep-water lacus-
trine systems also provide optimum reservoirs in the form of turbidite
systems and sublacustrine fans, and examples include the Recôncavo
Basin oil fields in northeastern Brazil (Carozzi and Fonseca, 1989) and
the Fushan oil field in northern South China Sea (Liu et al., 2014). There-
fore, understanding the development of deep-water lacustrine facies in
rift basins is of particular economic interest.
Lacustrine basins are not simply small oceans (Bohacs et al., 2000),
and compared to deep-water environments in marine basins, deep
⁎ Corresponding author at: Nanjing Center, China Geological Survey, Nanjing 210016,
China.
E-mail addresses: zhangcc3614@foxmail.com (C. Zhang), cascholz@syr.edu
(C.A. Scholz).
lacustrine facies and associated sedimentary fills in rift basins are
more dynamic and sensitive to a variety of factors, including tectonics,
climate, lake-level fluctuations, and sediment supply (Gong et al.,
2019; Zhang et al., 2019). For example, the amplitudes, frequencies,
and rates of lake level variation in large East Africa rift lakes can be sev-
eral times higher than those observed in marine basins (Lyons et al.,
2015). Furthermore, the effects of these factors are nonlinear and not
simply superposed (Zhang et al., 2019). Climate, lake level, and sedi-
ment supply are usually strongly linked in continental regimes and
lake systems (e.g., Schumm, 1977; Perlmutter and Matthews, 1990;
Carroll and Bohacs, 1999; Soreghan et al., 1999; Bohacs et al., 2000;
Evangelinos et al., 2017). The linkage and combination of these geolog-
ical effects produce various expressions of sedimentary fills in rift
basins. Consequently, the stratigraphic and facies architectures of lacus-
trine rift basins are complex and varied.
Conceptual sequence-stratigraphic models of rift basins typically
emphasize tectonics and/or climate as dominant controls (e.g., Scholz
et al., 1998; Lin et al., 2001; Hou et al., 2012; Huang et al., 2012). Al-
though these models provide valuable insights into basin stratigraphic
and facies architectures, this approach does not address the full range

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sedgeo.2020.105753
0037-0738/© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
2 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753
of possible controls, nor does it quantify the controlling processes. For
dynamic lacustrine rift basins, especially those with high amplitude sys-
tem responses and linked controls, these simplifying assumptions may
lead to errors in determining the actual facies architectures as well as
significant risks in the prediction of source rocks, reservoirs, seals and
traps. Accordingly, each of these complex links and geological processes
should be considered equally, in order to best explore the response and
record of deep lacustrine systems.
Stratigraphic forward modeling provides a practical and effective
method of addressing this problem by (1) examining and including
more of the variables that may control rift-basin sedimentation,
and (2) considering multiple scenarios to determine the influence
of these parameters. Previous stratigraphic forward models, how-
ever, rarely holistically integrate the basin and extrabasinal sources.
For instance, their assumptions include sediment supply as an inde-
pendent controlling variable (e.g., Csato et al., 2013; Burgess and
Prince, 2015; Balázs et al., 2017) or simply hold it constant
(e.g., Lin et al., 2001; Yin et al., 2017a). Changes in sediment supply
driven by lake level fluctuations alone may also underestimate the
complexity of real-world processes. To avoid these deficiencies,
this study utilizes a state-of-the-art commercial stratigraphic model-
ing software, Dionisos, to carry out modeling tests on deep lacustrine
sedimentary fills in multi-segment rift basins. This approach is novel
in that it is a deterministic, nonlinear, diffusion-based sediment
transport model, which connects the basin fill with the erosion of
the extrabasinal catchment area. We consider a range of parameters
that affect basin infilling, from the site of erosion in the source area to
deposition deep in the basin, and compare a series of models to
determine the sensitivity of the fills of deep lacustrine facies to
some of the variables, such as precipitation, tectonic subsidence of
the rift, and erosion rate of source area. These stratigraphic forward
models shed light on sedimentary fills of deep lacustrine facies in
rift basins and help in assessing the favorable conditions for the de-
velopment of lacustrine source rocks and deep-water reservoirs.
2. The stratigraphic forward modeling software—Dionisos
Stratigraphic forward modeling, developed in the 1970s, has been
increasingly used to simulate the evolution of sedimentary basins,
their landscapes, and associated stratal records (e.g., Harbaugh and
Bonham-Carter, 1970; Bosence and Waltham, 1990; Contreras and
Scholz, 2001; Burgess et al., 2006; Sømme et al., 2009). The Dionisos
(version 2015) software program used in this study was developed by
the Institut Français du Petrole Energies Nouvelles (IFPEN). It is a
three-dimensional numerical stratigraphic forward model, where sedi-
ment transport is based on water- and gravity-driven diffusion equa-
tions (Balázs et al., 2017). This diffusion-based model is best applied
to large-scale (tens to hundreds of kilometers) simulations over geolog-
ical time frames and can quantify the sedimentary architecture and
basin infilling of both siliciclastic and carbonate depositional environ-
ments. It incorporates four main physical processes: tectonics (subsi-
dence, faulting, flexure, diapirism), sea/lake level change (eustasy,
rainfall and evaporation balance), sediment supply (point sediment
sources, basement and sediment erosion, carbonate production), and
transport processes (fluvial, gravity flows, waves) (Burgess et al.,
2006; Csato et al., 2013). Therefore, an important benefit of this type
of stratigraphic forward model is the ability to use an experimental ap-
proach and to systematically and quantitatively analyze more parame-
ters than could be considered in most geological conceptual models.
The influence and sensitivity of these parameters on strata and basin
fills can be determined by comparing multiple experimental scenarios.
In Dionisos, sediment is composed of multiple grain-size classes
(e.g., sand, mud). Transport of sediment is divided between two large-
scale processes: gravity processes as hillslope creeping and fluvial pro-
cesses as river action (Granjeon and Joseph, 1999; Granjeon, 2014).
The gravity-driven sediment flux is assumed to be proportional to the
local topographic slope of the landscape, which can be calculated by
the following equation:
^ with S
Q s ¼ Kgravity S ^ ¼ S=S0
where Qs is the flux of sediment [L2/T], Kgravity is the gravity-driven dif-
fusion coefficient [L2/T], and ^S is the dimensionless topographic slope
[−]. The reference slope S0 is equal to 1 m/km.
Fluvial sediment transport driven by water flow from precipitation is
a faster process which can be approximated by a diffusion equation at
geological time scales (Csato et al., 2013). Diffusion-based models
have been used to study a wide array of depositional settings including
alluvial fans (Begin et al., 1981), rivers and floodplains (Parker et al.,
1998), and deltas and continental margins (Rivenaes, 1992). The diffu-
sion law that simulates the water-driven sediment influx can be de-
scribed by the following equation:
ns nq
Q s ¼ K water ^S Q^ with ^S ¼ S=S0 and Q
^ ¼ Q=Q
0
where Qs is the flux of sediment [L2/T], Kwater is the water-driven diffu-
sion coefficient [L2/T], ^S is the dimensionless topographic slope [−], Q
^ is
a dimensionless water flux [−], and ns and nq are power coefficient con-
stants between 1 and 2 (Tucker and Slingerland, 1994; Csato et al.,
2013). The reference water flux Q 0 is equal to 1 m3/s.
The flux of each grain-size fraction may therefore be defined by the
combination of the linear gravity-driven diffusion equation and the
nonlinear water-driven diffusion equation:
ns nq
Q s ¼ K gravity ^S þ K water ^S Q^
Erosion and sedimentation at each point in the model are defined by
sediment mass conservation and transport capacity. Sedimentation
takes place within a cell when the transport capacity is smaller than
the actual flux of sediment into the cell. Conversely, erosion takes
place when the transport capacity is larger than the amount of sediment
supplied to a cell. The erosion rate linked to transport capacity cannot
exceed a maximum incision rate (Chalaron et al., 1996), which is as-
sumed to be a nonlinear function of slope and water discharge (Csato
et al., 2013). Other geological processes, such as mechanical compaction
and slope failure are also incorporated in the program, allowing the cre-
ation of geologically reasonable and complex models.
3. The reference model run
3.1. Description of the reference model
To illustrate the sedimentary fills of deep lacustrine facies and their
response to multiple variables, we developed a model of a multi-
segment rift basin, which is a common basin structural framework ob-
served within large modern rift lakes, such as Lake Baikal in southern
Siberia and Lakes Tanganyika and Malawi in East Africa.
The model area was 600 km by 350 km (Fig. 1a). The rift system in
this model was composed of three linked basins bounded by six
oblique-oriented border faults. Each of the individual basins extended
for about 150 km along the rift axis, and each was 50–60 km wide.
The ratio of the drainage area to maximum lake surface area was
about 7, which approximates that observed in modern Lakes Tangan-
yika and Malawi (Bootsma and Hecky, 1993; Becker et al., 2010). The
duration of the simulation age was 4.8 Myr (0 Ma – 4.8 Ma) with a
time step of 50 kyr. This runtime of the model, which approaches the es-
timated formation age of Lake Malawi on other multi-segment rift lakes
(Delvaux, 1995), allows producing results that compare favorably to the
large-scale stratal architectures and facies trends observed in actual ex-
amples, with a reasonable amount of computation time and a model
resolution of 2.5 km (e.g., cell size is 2.5 km on a side). Models started
with no initial topography and uplifted in the catchment area and
 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753
(a)
350 km
m
60 k
50–
~15
0k
m
600 km
-3000
Subsidence (m)
0
4800
Fig. 1. The model geometry, tectonic subsidence, and history of precipitation used in the reference model. (a) Subsidence of the rift was controlled by six oblique border faults with the
maximum subsidence rate of 1000 m/Myr. (b) The precipitation rate varies between 800 and 400 mm/yr with cycles of 400 kyr and a simulation time of 4.8 Myr.
subsided in the basin area continuously, and achieved a maximum topo-
graphic slope of ~0.5° in the catchment area, exclusive of the rift moun-
tains (shoulders) along the border fault, at the end of the simulation.
Note that the vertical tectonic motions and evolution of the basement
through time are controlled by the subsidence map input in the model
(Fig. 1a). Tectonic evolution of the rift basin resembles many natural
scenarios, like the northern Malawi Rift (Ebinger et al., 1993) and the
northern Red Sea (Steckler and Omar, 1994; van der Beek et al., 1994),
where subsidence of the basin was controlled by displacement on the
border faults and 4–5 km of hanging wall subsidence was coupled
with the order of 1–3 km of footwall uplift. This produced much higher
topographic gradients in the region of the uplifted rift mountains. The
maximum subsidence rate along the border fault of the reference
model was 1000 m/Myr.
Lake level in our models was determined by the rainfall-evaporation
balance and the elevation of the lake spill point, as in natural rift basins.
The water balance between hydrologic inputs and outputs per time step
can be expressed as the following equation:
ΔV ¼ ΔP−ΔE−ΔO with ΔP ¼ Pa and ΔE ¼ Eaw
where ΔV is the change in water volume [km3], ΔP is the precipitation
into the lake and the surrounding catchment [km3], ΔE is evaporation
from the lake [km3], ΔO is the outflow [km3], P is the precipitation per
unit area, E is the evaporation per unit area, a is the total area of the
catchment and lake, and aw is the area of the lake. Due to the program
limitation that evaporation occurs only over a water body (here, the
lake), the evaporation rate was defined as a constant in space and
time. In the reference model, the precipitation rate was spatially
3
(b)
4.8
4.4
4.0
Elapsed model time (Myr)
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Precipitation rate (mm/yr)
homogeneous across the model, but varied cyclically in time from 400
to 800 mm/y and with a period of 400 kyr (Fig. 1b). The 400 kyr cycle
corresponds to the long eccentricity cycle in astronomical theory which
posits long-term periodic variations of the earth's orbital parameters are
the fundamental cause of climate changes over geological time frames.
Additionally, a period of 400 kyr enables adequate sampling of the cycle
of precipitation rate in a 50 kyr time step model. Accordingly, lake level
changes in our simulations were produced mainly by variations of the
net precipitation and subsidence of the basin through time.
The sediment supply to a rift basin is closely related to the geological
processes operating on catchment area around the rift, which mainly in-
volves erosion and sediment transport (Matenco and Andriessen,
2013). The maximum erosion rate reached 100 m/Myr, which is within
the expected range for this setting (Summerfield and Hulton, 1994). In
our modeling we use two lithologies: sand-grade sediments and mud-
grade ones (Rivenaes, 1992; den Bezemer et al., 2000), as they are the
common compositions of deep water sedimentary fills. The geological
process of slope failure is also incorporated in the model. Values for sed-
iment transport according to the diffusional processes described above
and the critical angle of slope failure are listed in Table 1. These values
were used in previous numerical studies.
3.2. Modeling results
3.2.1. Landscape and fluvial networks
Fig. 2 shows the morphological features and associated fluvial net-
works of the model. The rift system developed three types of structural
margins, i.e., border faults and adjacent rift mountains, accommodation
zones between two fault segments, and flexural margins, similar to the
4 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753

Table 1
Key parameter values used in the model scenarios.

Process Parameter Reference value Range Reference

Tectonic subsidence Maximum subsidence rate (m/Myr) 1000 600–1200 Muirhead et al. (2016)
Precipitation Rainfall rate amplitude (mm/yr) 400–800 100–1600 Adler et al. (2017)
Rainfall rate period (kyr) 400 200–400 /
Sediment transport Kg, Gravity-driven terrestrial diffusion coefficient for mud (km2/kyr) 0.001 / Harris et al. (2016)
Kg, Gravity-driven terrestrial diffusion coefficient for sand (km2/kyr) 0.001 / Harris et al. (2016)
Kg, Gravity-driven marine diffusion coefficient for mud (km2/kyr) 0.001 / Harris et al. (2016)
Kg, Gravity-driven marine diffusion coefficient for sand (km2/kyr) 0.001 / Harris et al. (2016)
Kw, Water-driven terrestrial diffusion coefficient for mud (km2/kyr) 300 / /
Kw, Water-driven terrestrial diffusion coefficient for sand (km2/kyr) 100 / /
Kw, Water-driven marine diffusion coefficient for mud (km2/kyr) 10 / Burgess et al. (2006)
Kw, Water-driven marine diffusion coefficient for sand (km2/kyr) 2 / Burgess et al. (2006)
Critical slope failure (degrees) 3 / Liu et al. (2014)
Erosion Maximum basement and sediment erosion rate (m/Myr) 100 50–150 Summerfield and Hulton (1994)
Sand proportion of the basement 30% / Balázs et al. (2017)
Mud proportion of the basement 70% / Balázs et al. (2017)

structural settings observed in actual rifts (e.g., Lake Malawi; Scholz, and valleys shaped by simultaneous uplift and erosion; (2) the fluvial
1995). Due to their important roles in controlling sediment input, the systems followed the valleys and converge at foot of mountains;
influence of these structures on basin margin depositional systems (3) major rivers entered the basin following trajectories around the
and reservoir distributions have been the focus of many studies fault tips on accommodation zones and flexural margins; and (4) lake
(e.g., Scholz, 1995; Gawthorpe and Leeder, 2000; Hou et al., 2012; Liu water exited through the lake's outlet when the lake level was higher
et al., 2015). than the elevation of the outlet sill. These resemblances suggest this is
The landscape and fluvial network generated by the model also had a viable framework for more closely examining the effects of physical
some similarities with their counterparts in the natural world. For ex- processes in the source area on basin fills.
ample, (1) the catchment area was characterized by a series of ridges
3.2.2. Depositional systems
Sediment transported by the fluvial networks from the surrounding
catchment area formed multiple depositional systems in the rift lake.
For example, the facies architecture at 4.5 Ma elapsed time shows that
Catchment area
Multi-segmented axial margin deltas, accommodation zone margin deltas, border fault
rift lake margin fan deltas, and sublacustrine gravity flows developed late in
the history of the basin in different structural locations of the rift
(Fig. 3); additionally, fine-grained lacustrine sediments with sand con-
tent <30% accumulated mainly in the central basin by this time.
Among the depositional systems, the fluvial-related deltas in the ac-
commodation zones and on the flexural margin had substantially larger
areal extent than the border fault margin fan deltas and sublacustrine
gravity flows. Similarly large delta systems are also observed in same
structural locations of modern lacustrine rift lakes, such as the axial
Fluvial system deltas (i.e., Songwe Delta) in the north end of Lake Malawi and the Sel-
enga Delta—the world's largest lacustrine accommodation zone margin
delta—in southern Lake Baikal. This suggests that this model is capable
of achieving the similar basin depositional patterns with the realistic
1000 rift basins.
Accommodation
zone
3.2.3. Deep lacustrine filling characteristics
800 In large rift lakes, such as those in East Africa, the water column is
permanently stratified and anoxic below water depths of a few hundred
meters (Hecky and Degens, 1973; Eccles, 1974). For example, the sub-
Water flux (m3/s)

Border fault
aqueous anoxic environment of Lake Malawi usually occurs below a
and rift mountains 600
depth of 150 m (Halfman, 1993). We therefore defined the deep lacus-
trine facies as deposition that occurred greater than this depth
(i.e., >150 m).
400 The stratigraphic architecture of the deep lacustrine facies in the ref-
erence model was characterized by a deepening upward succession and
Watershed was punctuated by a series of lake-level drawdowns (i.e., the relatively
divide 200 light blue intervals shown in Fig. 4a–c). Here we use the curve of max-
imum water depth to reflect the change of lake water, as it is a useful in-
Flexural
dicator not only for lake level changes but also for sediment infilling
50 km margin
Outlet 0 when lake level remains stable. These intervals of low lake levels coin-
cide with or are close to periods of minimum precipitation rate
Fig. 2. Reference model results, illustrating realistic landscape evolution and fluvial
(Figs. 1b, 4d). Some severe lake level reductions, such as those at
networks. Riverheads start at the catchment area and flow toward the rift valley, model times 2.2 and 2.6 Ma, expanded the watershed area into the rift
causing erosion in the source area and deposition in the basin area. and restricted the deep lacustrine facies to the centers of each rift
 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753
Axial margin delta
Gravity flow sediment
Accommodation zone
margin delta
100
Sand proportion (%)
Accommodation zone
margin delta
50
Border fault margin
30
subaqueous fan
50 km
0 total rift-fill for these models plotted against precipitation rate. For a
Fig. 3. Modeling result of sand percentage map at 4.5 Ma. Multiple systems developed in
different structural locations: axial margin deltas, accommodation zone margin deltas,
border fault margin subaqueous fans, gravity flow sediments, and shallow- and deep-
lacustrine systems.
segment, which caused them to be separated by the accommodation
zones (Fig. 4e). Such climatically-related severe low lake stages (hun-
dreds of meters of lake level decline) are also reported to have occurred
in many large East African rift lakes, and likewise resulted in the separa-
tion of a lake into several small subbasins, such as occurred in Lakes Tan-
ganyika and Malawi (Scholz and Rosendahl, 1988; Owen et al., 1990;
Scholz and Finney, 1994; Scholz et al., 2007; McGlue et al., 2008;
Lyons et al., 2015). During the highstand periods, the rift turns into a
single large lake with lake levels restricted by the elevation of the outlet
sill (Fig. 4f), even during periods with maximum precipitation rate
(e.g., the model times of 2.4 and 2.8 Ma).
Variations in the deep lacustrine sediment volume through time in
the reference model are shown in Fig. 5. The plot shows that over the
evolution of the model, the deep lacustrine sediment volume per
model time step increases from 0 to 900 km3. This is mainly caused by
the continuous surface uplift of the extrabasinal catchment areas,
which increases the topographic gradients and consequently the sedi-
ment transport efficiency (sediment supply) of fluvial systems, as well
as the accommodation created by continuous basin subsidence. There
is no deep lacustrine sediment in the very early periods of the basin
evolution (0–0.3 Ma), because the water depth had not yet reached
the 150 m threshold needed for our definition of “deep lacustrine”
(Fig. 4d). During the period of 0.3–2.0 Ma, the curve is somewhat irreg-
ular, although the minima and maxima of cycles occur almost at the
time of minimum and maximum precipitation rate respectively. This ir-
regularity occurs because the catchment, drainage network, and thus
5
sediment delivery to the basin wasn't completely established. After
the time of 2.0 Ma, it is evident that deep lacustrine sediment volume
per time step fluctuates with a frequency the same as that of precip-
itation. The volume curve peaks close to periods with maximum pre-
cipitation rate and then declines to a minimum close to periods with
minimum precipitation rate, and then rises again until the next peak.
This consistency indicates that the amount of deep lacustrine sediment
has a positive correlation with regional precipitation rate in the refer-
ence model. The volume of deep lacustrine sand-rich sediments (here-
after defined as sand content >30%) per time step shows a curve
through time similar to that of total deep lacustrine sediment (mud
and sand), but with a smaller volume that ranges from 0 to 380 km3
(Fig. 5).
In summary, filling of the deep lacustrine facies in the reference
model is affected by multiple dynamic processes, including uplift and
erosion of catchment area, basin subsidence, and regional precipitation.
Given the wide range of these variables among different lacustrine rift
basins, we proceed to use the models to conduct sensitivity analyses
to study in more detail how the deep lacustrine facies responds to
these geological processes.
4. Sensitivity analysis of deep lacustrine facies to geological processes
4.1. Sensitivity to precipitation
To investigate the possible influence of precipitation on deep lacus-
trine facies, we use the same parameters defined in the reference model
described above, but change the amplitude and frequency of precipita-
tion rate. Results are compiled from twelve forward models with pre-
cipitation rate periods of 400 kyr and 200 kyr and amplitudes ranging
from 100 to 1600 mm/yr (100–200 mm/yr, 200–400 mm/yr, 300–600
mm/yr, 400–800 mm/yr, 600–1200 mm/yr, 800–1600 mm/yr). Fig. 6
shows the volume ratio of deep lacustrine sediment contained in the
400 kyr period, the content of deep lacustrine sediment changes in a
parabolic manner, increasing from 29.5% for the scenario with
100–200 mm/year precipitation rate to 89.7% for the scenario with
400–800 mm/year precipitation rate and decreasing to 55.7% for the
scenario with 800–1600 mm/year precipitation rate.
An increase of the proportional volume of deep lacustrine sediment
contained in the total rift fill is caused by the increasing precipitation
rates. However, the highest rates resulted in a decrease of the deep la-
custrine proportion. The simulation results suggest that these lakes
tend to be overfilled by excessive sediments due to larger river dis-
charges under higher precipitation conditions. Detailed basin filling
characteristics of the six scenarios with different precipitation rates
are presented in Fig. 7, which shows the along-axis lacustrine facies
architecture of each of the scenarios and their resulting maximum
water depth curve. In the model with very low precipitation rate
(100–200 mm/yr), the rift is consistently characterized by a closed-
lake system even during periods of maximum precipitation rate
(200 mm/yr). Most areas of the rift in this scenario are exposed and
covered by shallow lakes, and the deep lacustrine facies only occurs in
the subsiding center of the rift segments. This suggests that the smaller
volume ratio of deep lacustrine sediment, in this case is due to the
smaller area of the deep lakes under dry climate conditions. With the in-
crease of the minimum and maximum precipitation rates from the sce-
nario of 100–200 mm/yr to the scenario of 300–600 mm/yr, the areas of
deep lacustrine facies are expanded during periods of both lowstand
and highstand. In the 400–800 mm/yr scenario (the reference model),
the area of deep lacustrine facies is further expanded, particularly dur-
ing periods of low lake level, due to the increase of regional minimum
precipitation rate compared to the drier scenarios. Expansion of the
lake and deep lacustrine facies tends to be restricted by the lake out-
let during highstand phases, even though the maximum precipita-
tion rate increases. In scenarios with precipitation rates ranging
6 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753

(a) (d)
4.8
A Lake margin subaerial sediment A’
4.4
Shallow-lacustrine sediment
Deep-lacustrine sediment 4.0

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

3.6
-1000
3.2
sedimentary deposit (m)

2.8
0 2.4
150 2.0
Water depth of

1.6
Basement Accommodation zone Shallow lacustrine
1000 sediment 1.2
0.8
0.4
2000 0
(c) 0 1000 2000
(b) Accommodation zone Maximum water depth (m)
C C’
margin subaerial sediment
B B’ Deep-lacustrine A
sediment

Deep-lacustrine B’
sediment
B C’
Border fault
Border fault C

A’

(e) Low lake level (2.2 Ma) (f) High lake level (2.4 Ma)

a single large lake

three separate
small lakes

outlet

Fig. 4. Stratigraphic and facies architecture of the reference model and lake size and extent during low and high lake level periods. (a) Along-axis stratigraphic and facies architecture. The
relatively light blue intervals among the deep lacustrine facies represent the period of distinct lake level drawdowns. (b) Cross-section showing stratigraphic and facies architecture across
the accommodation zone. (c) Cross-section showing stratigraphic and facies architecture across the border faults. (d) The resulting maximum water depth curve, showing a series of lake
level drops. These intervals of low lake level generally occurred during periods of minimum precipitation. (e) Low lake level at 2.2 Ma. The rift was covered by three separate small lakes.
(f) High lake level at 2.4 Ma. The rift was covered by a single large lake with an outlet.

from 600 to 1200 mm/yr and 800 to 1600 mm/yr, the areas of deep rates, which are evident in scenarios with lower precipitation rates,
lacustrine facies are reduced overall, due to the progradational depo- are not observed in these two models. They consistently occur as
sition caused by the high sediment supply. Lake level fluctuations open-lake systems even during periods of minimum precipitation
linked to the changes in minimum and maximum precipitation rate (600 mm/yr and 800 mm/yr).
 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753 7

4.8

4.4

4.0

3.6

3.2
Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

2.8

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.4
0
200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 100 200 300 400 500
Precipitation rate (mm/yr) 3
Deep lacustrine sediment volume (km ) Deep lacustrine sand-rich sediment
3
(sand content >30%) volume (km )

Fig. 5. The volume curve of deep lacustrine total sediment and sand-rich sediment (sand content >30%) of the reference model.

Models with 200 kyr period of precipitation rate share approxi- the scenario with precipitation rates of 800–1600 mm/yr, although
mately the same values as those with 400 kyr period (Fig. 6), suggesting the rift is overfilled and the surface slope tends to be low, large precip-
that the timescale of change in precipitation rate is not an important pa- itation events tend to bring more coarse sediments into the deep lacus-
rameter affecting the proportional volume of deep lacustrine sediment trine environment. This causes the high precipitation rate model to still
contained in the total rift fill. Based on the above observations and in- contain a relatively high proportion of coarse-grained sediments within
vestigations, these models show that both extremely dry and extremely the deep lacustrine facies (Fig. 8). However, in the 100–200 mm/yr
humid conditions are not favorable for the development of relatively precipitation rate scenario, the lake is characterized by smaller river
large proportional volume of deep lacustrine facies in rift basins. discharges, which tend to decrease the efficiency of coarse grained
Deep-water coarse-grained sediments serve as favorable hydrocar- sediment transfer from estuaries to deep lake areas.
bon reservoirs in lacustrine settings. Fig. 8 shows the proportional The ratios of sand-rich sediment contained in deep lacustrine facies
volume of deep lacustrine sand-rich sediment contained in deep lacus- in models with 200 kyr period of precipitation rate show a similar var-
trine facies plotted against precipitation amplitude with 400 and 200 iation curve and closely approximate values with those of models
kyr-period climatic oscillation. For the 400 kyr period, the proportion with 400 kyr period of precipitation rate. Therefore, these models sug-
of the sand-rich sediment content in the deep lacustrine facies increases gest that extremely dry climate conditions are not favorable for deep-
markedly from 26.8% to 43.7% and then decreases slightly to 39.8% with water deposition of coarse grained sediments.
the increase of the precipitation rates. The model with precipitation
rates of 300–600 mm/yr shows a highest content of deep-water 4.2. Sensitivity to basin subsidence
coarse-grained sediment, which is mainly attributed to its very steep
slopes on the lake margins compared to the other scenarios (Fig. 7). In Taking the same parameters as used in the models with different
precipitation rates described above, but only varying the subsidence
rate, allows the exploration of the possible influence of basin subsidence
100% 400 kyr
on the development of deep lacustrine facies. Fig. 9 shows the
200 kyr
Proportion of total rift-fill strata deposited in

proportional volume of deep lacustrine sediment contained in total

80% rift sediment plotted against the 400 kyr period precipitation rate
from models with maximum subsidence rate of 600, 800, 1000, and
1200 m/Myr. For all ranges of precipitation rates, the volume ratio of
60% deep lacustrine sediment contained in the total rift sediment increases
deep (>150 m) lake setting

40%
20%
%0
I II III
Fig. 6. The volume ratio of the deep lacustrine sediment to the total rift fill from 12 scenarios
plotted against precipitation rate (100–200 mm/yr in scenario I, 200–400 mm/yr in
scenario II, 300–600 mm/yr in scenario III, 400–800 mm/yr in scenario IV, 600–1200
mm/yr in scenario V, and 800–1600 mm/yr in scenario VI,).
with the increase of the maximum rift subsidence rate from 600 m/Myr
to 1200 m/Myr. This result indicates that rapid subsidence is favorable
for the development of deep lacustrine facies. However, the increasing
favorability with subsidence rate is nonlinear with precipitation rate:
the volume ratio increases with different amplitudes. The volume ratio
increases by less than 10% (22.9% to 32.7%) in scenarios with precipitation
rates from 100 to 200 mm/yr, as contrasted to an increase of 64% (22.3%
to 86.4%) for the case with precipitation rates from 800 to 1600 mm/yr.
IV V VI
Fig. 10 shows the basin filling characteristics of models with different sub-
sidence rates in these two climate scenarios. In the very dry scenario,
although the basin subsidence increases, the climate condition still
plays a significant role in limiting the development of the deep lacustrine
facies (Fig. 10a). By contrast, the expanded accommodation created by
8 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753

I. P100Ȍ200 mm/yr 4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
II. P200Ȍ400 mm/yr 4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
III. P300Ȍ600 mm/yr 4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
IV. P400Ȍ800 mm/yr 4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
V. P600Ȍ1200 mm/yr 4.8
Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
VI. P800Ȍ1600 mm/yr
4.8
Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
0 30 60 (km) 1.2
0 0.8
0.4
0
1 -1000 0 150 1000 2000
0 1000 2000
2 Maximum water depth (m)
(km) Water depth of sedimentary deposits (m)

Fig. 7. Stratigraphic and facies architecture of each scenario on the long axis of the rift, with increasing precipitation rate and their resulting maximum water depth curves (I–VI). The blue
and yellow colours represent deep lacustrine deposits (water depth > 150 m) and shallow lacustrine deposits, respectively; the green colour within the black dotted lines represents
subaerial exposed deposits. P = Precipitation rate.
 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753
50% 400 kyr
content >30%) contained in deep-lacustrine facies
Proportional volume of sand-rich sediment (sand
200 kyr
40%
30%
20%
10%
%0
I II III IV
Fig. 8. The volume ratio of sand-rich sediment (sand content >30%) contained in deep
lacustrine facies from 12 scenarios plotted against precipitation rate (precipitation rates
in scenarios I–VI are same as those in Fig. 6).
the increase in basin subsidence effectively reduces the influence of the
massive sediment supply on basin fills for the very humid scenario
(Fig. 10b). This suggests that the development of deep lacustrine facies
is more sensitive to basin subsidence under humid conditions.
Basin subsidence also exerts an influence on the variation of deep la-
custrine coarse-grained sediment content in these model runs. The pro-
portional volume of sand-rich sediment contained in deep lacustrine
facies for these models is shown in Fig. 11. Similar to that of deep lacus-
trine sediment, the volume content of sand-rich sediment in deep lacus-
trine facies also increases with the increase of rift maximum subsidence
rate for all ranges of precipitation rates. This shows that rapid basin sub-
sidence is favorable for the deposition of deep lacustrine coarse-grained
sediment. The main cause is the growing tendency of steep slopes and
thus slope failures on the lake margins as a result of the increase of sub-
sidence. However, the difference of their increasing amplitudes among
the scenarios with different precipitation rates appears minor, as op-
posed to that of deep lacustrine sediment. For example, the volume con-
tent increases 6.7% (21.7% to 28.4%) in scenarios with precipitation rates
of 100–200 mm/yr, and only 12.2% (30.9% to 43.1%) in scenarios with
precipitation rates of 800–1600 mm/yr. This result suggests that climate
conditions have a relatively small effect on the sensitivities of coarse
sediment contained in deep lacustrine facies to basin subsidence, al-
though there is high sensitivity of deep lacustrine sediment volume to
basin subsidence under humid conditions.
100% S1200 m/Myr
S1000 m/Myr
Proportion of total rift-fill strata deposited in
S800 m/Myr
80% S600 m/Myr
60%
deep (>150 m) lake setting
40%
20%
%0
I II III IV
Fig. 9. The volume ratio of the deep lacustrine sediment to the total rift fill from 24
scenarios with increasing maximum subsidence rate (600, 800, 1000, 1200 m/Myr)
plotted against precipitation rate (precipitation rates in scenarios I–VI are same as those
in Fig. 6). S = Maximum subsidence rate.
9
4.3. Sensitivity to erosion rate
Although erosion rate of source area strongly affects the rate of sed-
iment supply, few other 3D stratigraphic forward modeling studies ex-
plicitly consider the erosion of catchment area as one of the parameters
that can control basin fills. For example, in systems with varying bed-
rock geology in adjacent rift segments, it is possible that markedly dif-
ferent sediment responses may occur. Fig. 12 shows the percentage of
total sediment resulting from erosion deposited in deep lacustrine envi-
ronments from eighteen models with maximum erosion rates of 50,
100, and 150 m/Myr, plotted against precipitation rate with a 400 kyr
period oscillation. Other parameters used in these models are identical.
The proportion of deep lacustrine sediment increases as the erosion rate
decreases from 150 to 50 m/Myr for all ranges of precipitation rates, in-
V VI
dicating that low erosion rates of source areas are favorable for the de-
velopment of deep lacustrine facies. However, the sensitivity of the
deep lacustrine sediment volume to erosion rate is different among
models with different precipitation rates. For example, the proportion
increases 1.3% (28.5% to 29.8%) for the model with precipitation rates
of 100–200 mm/yr, but a maximum of 68.3% (27.8% to 96.1%) for a
model with a precipitation rate of 800–1600 mm/yr. Differences in
basin fills and facies distribution in response to different erosion rates
between these two sceneries are also clearly shown in Fig. 13. This sug-
gests that the deposition of deep lacustrine facies is more sensitive to
erosion rate under humid conditions.
Fig. 14 shows the proportion of deep lacustrine sand-rich sediment
contained in deep lacustrine facies for these eighteen models. In all
cases, the content of sand-rich sediment in deep lacustrine facies in-
creases with the decrease in erosion rates. This result indicates that a
low erosion rate in the source area is favorable for the deposition of
coarse-grained sediments in deep lacustrine environments. Addition-
ally, scenarios with different precipitation amounts show small differ-
ences in the changes of the proportional sand volume, suggesting that
climate conditions have a relatively small effect on the sensitivity of
coarse sediment incorporated into deep lacustrine facies under different
erosional regimes.
5. Discussion
We have used a stratigraphic forward modeling approach to study
deep lacustrine sedimentary fills associated with rift basins, as these
sediments are important for reconstructing past environmental condi-
tions in continental settings, and for understanding the occurrences of
lacustrine source and reservoir rocks in rifts. In this study, we focus on
the sensitivity of deep lacustrine systems to changes in precipitation,
basin subsidence, and erosion rates within the source areas. Our ap-
proach integrates the stratigraphic architecture of basin fill with the
evolution of the extrabasinal catchment area, and relates tectonism
and fluctuations of precipitation to changes in lake level and sediment
supply. This contrasts with the other models of lacustrine basins
where the sediment supply fails to connect with extrabasinal source
areas and their associated geological processes (e.g., Csato et al., 2015;
Yin et al., 2017b), or models of marine basins where tectonism, climate,
eustasy, and sediment supply are treated as independent variables
(e.g., Sømme et al., 2009). In general, the main connections of these var-
iables in this case are as follows: (1) Sediment supply is associated with
precipitation (climate conditions) and topographic gradient and size of
the catchment area (tectonic motions). (2) Lake level fluctuations are
controlled by changes of net precipitation, subsidence of the basin,
and elevation of the lake outlet sill. (3) Lake level and sediment supply
are inherently linked, i.e., lake level rises when river discharge increases
V VI
and vice versa. However, the closeness of this linkage varies in different
scenarios, with the strongest linkage in closed-lake systems and the
weakest in open-lake systems. By virtue of incorporating these connec-
tions, our modeling can develop fluvial networks, depositional systems,
and lakes as natural lacustrine rift basins do. Although there are
10 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753

(a) Precipitation rates of 100Ȍ200 mm/yr

4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

I. S600 m/Myr 4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
II. S800 m/myr 4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
III. S1000 m/myr 0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
IV. S1200 m/myr 0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
(b) Precipitation rates of 800Ȍ1600 mm/yr 4.8
Elapsed Model Time (Myr)
4.4
I. S600 m/Myr 4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
II. S800 m/Myr Maximum water depth (m)
4.8
Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
III. S1000 m/Myr Maximum water depth (m)
4.8
Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
IV. S1200 m/Myr 0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
4.8
Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
0 30 60 (km) 1.2
0 0.8
0.4
0
1 -1000 0 150 1000 2000 0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
2
(km) Water depth of sedimentary deposit (m)

Fig. 10. Stratigraphic and facies architecture of scenarios along the long axis of the rift with increasing maximum subsidence rate (600, 800, 1000, 1200 m/Myr) and their resulting
maximum water depth curve; (a) Scenarios with precipitation rate period of 400 kyr and amplitude of 100–200 mm/yr. (b) Scenarios with precipitation rate period of 400 kyr and
amplitude of 800–1600 mm/yr. S = Maximum subsidence rate.
 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753
50% S1200 m/Myr
content >30%) contained in deep-lacustrine facies
Proportional volume of sand-rich sediment (sand
S1000 m/Myr
S800 m/Myr
40%
S600 m/Myr
30%
20%
10%
%0
I II III IV
Fig. 11. The volume ratio of sand-rich sediment (sand content >30%) contained in deep
lacustrine facies from 24 scenarios with increasing maximum subsidence rate (600, 800,
1000, 1200 m/Myr) plotted against precipitation rate (precipitation rates in scenarios I–
VI are same as those in Fig. 6). S = Maximum subsidence rate.
program functional limitations, e.g., the adoption of diffusion-based
model to represent sediment transport and the incapacity of incorporat-
ing the role of vegetation, wind, and air temperature, we have chosen
not to over interpret modeling results beyond these limits. Moreover,
unlike some other numerical models and laboratory experiments
(e.g., Burov and Cloetingh, 1997; Smit et al., 2010), this model does
not have sufficient capacity to investigate mechanical properties and
rheological structures of lithosphere underlying the rift basin.
The purpose of our modeling is not to simulate small-scale deposi-
tional processes and responses, but to explore the large-scale variations
of deep lacustrine sedimentary fills in response to different climate con-
ditions, from arid to humid; different subsidence rates, reflecting the
end-member processes of continental extension; and varying erosion
rates, which reflect different bedrock terranes within the catchment.
One practical solution used in the stratigraphic forward model approach
is to define multiple model scenarios and different climatic conditions
(from arid to humid). Note that this multiple scenario approach is in
fact not a new method, because it is widely used in subsurface modeling
studies (e.g., Burgess et al., 2006; Charvin et al., 2009; Falivene et al.,
2014; Harris et al., 2016). The idea is to build a reference model with a
reference parameter set and then to change the parameter set values
to build a set of scenarios. Because searching the whole space of a pa-
rameter is computationally expensive, it is necessary to take a proper
range of the parameter value to create the set of scenarios. For example,
in this study, the range of the precipitation rates defined in these models
100% E50 m/Myr
E100 m/Myr
Proportion of total rift-fill strata deposited in
E150 m/Myr
80%
60%
deep (>150 m) lake setting
40%
20%
%0
I II III IV
Fig. 12. The volume ratio of the deep lacustrine sediment to the total rift fill from 18
scenarios with increasing maximum erosion rate (50, 100, 150 m/Myr) plotted against
precipitation rate (precipitation rates in scenarios I–VI are same as those in Fig. 6). E =
Maximum erosion rate.
11
results in the lake basin types varying from evaporation-dominated, hy-
drologically closed lakes, to lakes with highly fluctuating levels, and
then further to fluvial-lacustrine dominated open lakes, as the precipita-
tion rates increase. This spectrum is consistent with the lake basin type
suggested by Bohacs et al. (2000), based on numerous observations of
ancient lake systems from Cambrian to Holocene. Moreover, the range
of the precipitation rates (100–1600 mm/yr) defined in our models
covers most of the range of real-world examples recognized in the
Phanerozoic. After determining the set of climate scenarios, modifying
the parameter values of basin subsidence rate and the erosion rate of
the catchment area enables the creation of multiple new series of
scenarios. The analysis of the simulations of all scenarios allows an
assessment of trends, feedbacks and threshold responses. Importantly,
there are also other approaches that can be used to determine modeling
V VI
scenarios so as to reduce the potentially very large number of model
runs, such as the method of experimental design and response surface
modeling (Wendebourg, 2003). These approaches, however, are mainly
used to assess uncertainty, which is not the focus of this current paper.
Analysis of trends and sensitivities of the results also helps to deter-
mine the influence of the controlling factors during basin evolution. For
example, although our models suggest that both extremely arid and ex-
tremely humid conditions are unfavorable for the development of rela-
tively large proportional volume of deep lacustrine facies (Fig. 6), the
effect of climate on the lower volume ratio of deep lacustrine sediment
to total rift fill in these two extreme scenarios is different. Climate condi-
tions not only influence lake area but also sediment supply, which can be
markedly different from those in marine systems (Gong et al., 2019). For
the extremely dry condition, limited precipitation results in a smaller
whole lake area and smaller deep lake area, while under extremely
humid conditions, high precipitation results in high sediment flux,
which infills the lake, reducing both the whole lake and deep lake areas,
as well as accommodation (Fig. 7). The different sensitivity of the deep la-
custrine sediment to total rift fill volume ratio related to basin subsidence
also suggests that the role of basin subsidence in controlling the develop-
ment of deep lacustrine facies is different under different climate settings
(Fig. 9). In the humid setting, the higher sensitivity suggests that basin
subsidence is more likely to be a dominant controlling factor for the de-
velopment of deep lacustrine facies; however, in arid settings, the lower
sensitivity suggests that the arid climate is more likely to be the main con-
trolling factor, rather than the basin subsidence. Similarly, the different
sensitivity of the deep lacustrine sediment volume ratio to the erosion
of the catchment area also reflects the different impacts of erosion of
the catchment area in the different climate settings (Fig. 12). That is, the
erosion of the catchment area is more likely to be a dominant controlling
factor in accumulating the deep lacustrine facies in humid settings, but is a
secondary factor in arid settings. The difference in roles of the same con-
trolling factor under different climatic conditions suggests that there are
preconditions for a geological factor serving as a main controlling factor
of the development of deep lacustrine facies in rift basins. This contrasts
with the conceptual depositional models of rift basins, which always
tend to assume tectonics and/or climate as most important controls.
Deep lacustrine sedimentary fills include both fine-grained source
rock sediments as well as coarse-grained reservoir facies. Analyses of
the variations of the deep lacustrine sedimentary fills and the relative
amounts of deep lacustrine coarse sediment provide insights into the fa-
vorable conditions for the development of lacustrine source rocks and
deep-water siliciclastic reservoirs in rift basins. For example, we observe
an increase of proportional volume of deep lacustrine sediment contained
in the total rift fill and the proportional volume of sand-rich sediment
contained in deep lacustrine facies, with an increase in basin subsidence
in the various climate settings. This suggests that rapid subsidence is
V VI
favorable not only for the deposition of source rocks but also for the depo-
sition of deep-water reservoirs. Such a model-based inference provides
strong evidence that the development of deep lacustrine fine- and
coarse-grained deposits corresponds to episodes of rapid subsidence
that occurred in many ancient rift basins (Zhao et al., 2019; Matenco
12 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753

(a) Precipitation rates of 100Ȍ200 mm/yr

I. E50 m/Myr 4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
II. E100 m/Myr 4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)

III. E150 m/Myr 4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)

(b) Precipitation rates of 800Ȍ1600 mm/yr

I. E50 m/Myr 4.8

Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
II. E100 m/Myr 4.8
Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 1000 2000
Maximum water depth (m)
III. E150 m/Myr
4.8
Elapsed Model Time (Myr)

4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
0 30 60 (km) 1.2
0 0.8
0.4
0
1 -1000 0 150 1000 2000 0 1000 2000
2 Maximum water depth (m)
(km) Water depth of sedimentary deposit (m)

Fig. 13. Along long-axis stratigraphic and facies architecture of scenarios with increasing maximum erosion rate (50, 100, 150 m/Myr) and their resulting maximum water depth curve;
(a) Scenarios with precipitation rate period of 400 kyr and amplitude of 100–200 mm/yr. (b) Scenarios with precipitation rate period of 400 kyr and amplitude of 800–1600 mm/yr. E =
Maximum erosion rate.
 C. Zhang et al. / Sedimentary Geology 408 (2020) 105753
50% E50 m/Myr
content >30%) contained in deep-lacustrine facies
Proportional volume of sand-rich sediment (sand
E100 m/Myr
E150 m/Myr
40%
30%
20%
10%
%0
I II III IV
Fig. 14. The volume ratio of sand-rich sediment (sand content >30%) contained in deep
lacustrine facies from 18 scenarios with increasing maximum erosion rate (50, 100, 150
m/Myr) plotted against precipitation rate (precipitation rates in scenarios I–VI are same
as those in Fig. 6). E = Maximum erosion rate.
and Haq, 2020). The results of the scenarios with different catchment area
erosion rates suggest that a low erosion rate is also an advantageous factor
for the deposition of deep lacustrine source rocks and reservoirs. Indeed
the effect of siliclastic dilution on the quality of hydrocarbon source
rocks is well-known (e.g., Huc et al., 1990; Katz and Lin, 2014) and war-
rants further investigation using a forward modeling approach.
6. Summary
We completed a stratigraphic forward modeling study of deep water
facies in multi-segment rift basins. The model can easily reproduce the
sedimentary processes and captures some of the filling complexities of
lacustrine rift basins because it focuses on reproducing the main
physical processes acting on the whole depositional environment
from the site of erosion in the source area to deposition in the basin
area. Simulations produced depositional and stratigraphic characteristics
of lacustrine rift basins analogous to those observed in natural world ex-
amples, and allow sensitivity analyses of deep lacustrine facies to a vari-
ety of variables including precipitation, basin subsidence, and erosion
rate of the source areas. Use of such forward models can enhance the un-
derstanding of the effect of different geological processes on deep lacus-
trine fills and help predict favorable conditions for the deposition of
lacustrine source rocks and deep-water reservoirs in rift basins.
Quantifying the frequency of deep water reservoir facies in each cell
at each time step by aggregating the output from the series of scenarios
(i.e., deep-water reservoir presence probability at each point on the
model grid) (e.g., Burgess et al., 2006; Falivene et al., 2014), is part of
the focus of forthcoming investigations, in order to explore reservoir
sweet-spot areas. Further modeling studies that consider the influence
of detrital inputs degrading lacustrine-rift source rocks via dilution
with clastic detritus are also warranted.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influ-
ence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge the French Petroleum Institute for pro-
viding the Dionisos software program and the considerable technical
support. We thank the Lacustrine Rift Basin Research Program and the
Department of Earth Sciences at Syracuse University for enabling and
assisting this research. We would also like to thank Sarah Baumgardner
for early reviews, the editor Dr. J. Knight for editorial handling and
13
comments, and three reviewers (Peter Burgess, Sierd Cloetingh, and
an anonymous reviewer) for their constructive comments. This
research was supported by the following industrial sponsors to Syracuse
University: Chevron, Maersk Oil, Africa Energy, RAKGas, and Freeport-
Mcmoran Oil & Gas.
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