MASON-DIXON® KENTUCKY POLL

FEBRUARY 2021
Polling in Kentucky since 1987

EMBARGO: Newspaper Publication - Friday, February 12, 2021

Broadcast & Internet Release – 6 am EDT, Friday, February 12, 2021

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2021 Kentucky Poll

 MAJORITY APPROVE OF BESHEAR & PAUL, BUT NOT MCCONNELL
PAUL WELL POSITIONED FOR RE-ELECTION

Governor Andy Beshear and Senator Rand Paul each receive net positive job ratings
from Kentucky voters, but a majority disapproves of the performance of Senator
Mitch McConnell.

Statewide, 55% approve of the job Beshear is doing, while 36% disapprove. Paul
receives a 53% approval rating, compared to 44% disapproval. However, 53% say
they disapprove of McConnell’s performance and only 41% approve.

BESHEAR JOB RATING MCCONELL JOB RATING

9% 6% APPROVE
36% 55% 41%
APPROVE 53% DISAPPROVE
DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
NOT SURE

When asked about their 2022 Senate vote, 47% said they would vote to re-elect Paul,
while only 41% indicated they would replace him with a Democrat.

PAUL JOB RATING PAUL 2022 SENATE VOTE

3% 12% RE-ELECT
44% 53% 41% 47%
APPROVE REPLACE
DISAPPROVE UNDECIDED
NOT SURE

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2021 Kentucky Poll

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Andy Beshear’s job performance as governor?

APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

STATE 55% 36% 9%

REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Louisville Metro 66% 23% 11%

Lexington/Blue Grass 62% 33% 5%
Northern Kentucky 52% 41% 7%
Eastern Kentucky 51% 38% 11%
Western Kentucky 44% 47% 9%

GENDER ID: APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Male 51% 42% 7%

Female 58% 31% 11%

AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

<50 54% 32% 14%

50+ 56% 39% 5%

PARTY REGISTRATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Democrat 80% 12% 8%

Republican 29% 62% 9%
Independent 48% 40% 12%

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2021 Kentucky Poll

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Mitch McConnell’s job performance as Kentucky’s
U.S. Senator?

APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

STATE 41% 53% 6%

REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Louisville Metro 27% 69% 4%

Lexington/Blue Grass 40% 56% 4%
Northern Kentucky 44% 49% 7%
Eastern Kentucky 47% 46% 7%
Western Kentucky 49% 43% 8%

GENDER ID: APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Male 45% 49% 6%

Female 37% 57% 6%

AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

<50 35% 57% 8%

50+ 47% 48% 5%

PARTY REGISTRATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Democrat 23% 73% 4%

Republican 62% 29% 9%
Independent 38% 55% 7%

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2021 Kentucky Poll

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Rand Paul’s job performance as Kentucky’s U.S.
Senator?

APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

STATE 53% 44% 3%

REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Louisville Metro 40% 57% 3%

Lexington/Blue Grass 49% 49% 2%
Northern Kentucky 55% 41% 4%
Eastern Kentucky 58% 38% 4%
Western Kentucky 63% 35% 2%

GENDER ID: APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Male 57% 39% 4%

Female 49% 48% 3%

AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

<50 50% 48% 2%

50+ 55% 41% 4%

PARTY REGISTRATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Democrat 24% 73% 3%

Republican 82% 16% 2%
Independent 68% 25% 7%

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2021 Kentucky Poll

QUESTION: If the 2022 election for Kentucky’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you
vote to re-elect Republican Rand Paul or would you vote to replace Paul with a Democrat?

RE-ELECT REPLACE UNDECIDED

STATE 47% 41% 12%

REGION RE-ELECT REPLACE UNDECIDED

Louisville Metro 31% 54% 15%

Lexington/Blue Grass 40% 44% 16%
Northern Kentucky 51% 37% 12%
Eastern Kentucky 56% 36% 8%
Western Kentucky 58% 32% 10%

GENDER ID: RE-ELECT REPLACE UNDECIDED

Male 52% 39% 9%

Female 43% 43% 14%

AGE RE-ELECT REPLACE UNDECIDED

<50 43% 43% 14%

50+ 51% 39% 10%

PARTY REGISTRATION RE-ELECT REPLACE UNDECIDED

Democrat 14% 71% 15%

Republican 84% 9% 7%
Independent 53% 30% 17%

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2021 Kentucky Poll

 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville,
Florida from February 1 through February 4, 2021. A total of 625 registered
Kentucky voters were interviewed statewide by telephone

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Kentucky

voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers.
Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is

no more than ±4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent
probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were
surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or
party grouping.

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2021 Kentucky Poll

 DEMOGRAPHICS

PARTY REGISTRATION:

Democrat 303 (48%)

Republican 262 (42%)
Independent or Other 60 (10%)

GENDER ID:
Male 304 (49%)
Female 319 (51%)
Other 2

AGE:
18-34 103 (16%)
35-49 179 (29%)
50-64 180 (29%)
65+ 162 (26%)
Refused 1

REGION:
Louisville Metro 150 (24%)
Lexington/Bluegrass 110 (18%)
Northern Kentucky 75 (12%)
Eastern Kentucky 140 (22%)
Western Kentucky 150 (24%)

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2021 Kentucky Poll

 KENTUCKY POLL REGIONS

LOUISVILLE METRO: Voters in Jefferson, Bullitt, Oldham, Trimble, Henry, Shelby,

Spencer and Nelson counties.

LEXINGTON/BLUEGRASS: Voters in Fayette, Woodford, Franklin, Anderson, Scott,

Harrison, Bourbon, Nicholas, Clark, Madison, Montgomery, Garrard, Jessamine,
Boyle, Mercer, Washington, Marion, Powell and Estill counties.

NORTHERN KENTUCKY: Voters in Boone, Kenton, Campbell, Gallatin, Carroll,

Owen, Grant, Pendleton, Bracken and Robertson counties

EASTERN KENTUCKY: Voters in Jackson, Rockcastle, Lincoln, Casey, Taylor, Green,

Metcalfe, Adair, Russell, Cumberland, Clinton, Wayne, McCreary, Whitley, Laurel,
Pulaski, Monroe, Mason, Fleming, Bath, Menifee, Wolfe, Breathitt, Perry, Leslie,
Harlan, Bell, Knox, Clay, Owsley, Lee, Letcher, Knott, Pike, Floyd, Martin, Johnson,
Magoffin, Morgan, Rowan, Elliott, Lewis, Carter, Greenup, Boyd and Lawrence
counties.

WESTERN KENTUCKY: Voters in Fulton, Hickman, Carlisle, Ballard, McCracken,

Graves, Marshall, Calloway, Livingston, Lyon, Trigg, Crittenden, Caldwell, Christian,
Hopkins, Webster, Union, Henderson, Daviess, McLean, Muhlenberg, Todd, Logan,
Butler, Ohio, Hancock, Breckinridge, Meade, Hardin, Grayson, Edmonson, Warren,
Simpson, Allen, Barren, Hart and LaRue counties.

Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2021 Kentucky Poll