Report of The Survey on Market

Demand of Mobile Service

Providers
Submitted by: Anand Rathi
Roll No : 2803146
Division : ‘A’

Faculty Name: Prof. Dr. Bartakke.

 CONTENTS

Introduction …………………………………….

Objective …...…………………. ………………

Mode of study (Samplings)………………………

Annexure 1 ………………………………………..

Analysis…………………………………………..

Conclusion………………………………………..
 INTRODUCTION

The project report will help us to have an idea about the market demand estimated for the year
2011.

In this assignment we will study why how to estimate the market demand for a particular product
for the next year.

This will help in reviewing the changing pattern market demand.

We will study how to estimate market demand for the preceding year through a questioner.
 OBJECTIVE

This assignment is concerned about Market Demand.

Throughout the assignment the following points are going to be discussed.

1) Why is consumer stick to a particular brand?

2) Why specific product / service are purchased?

3) Why dose he/she change the brand?

5) A complete study of market demand for VODAFONE mobile communication service provider in Pune
for 2011.
 Market Survey:-

A market survey is an important requirement for initiating any successful business. The objective of a
market survey is to collect information on various aspects of the business. This survey is a tool through
which we can minimize risk. After the market survey, the results must be analyzed in order to finalize a
business plan.
A market survey is a systematic collection, recording, analysis and interpretation of data relating to the
existing or potential market for a product or services.
A market survey is a useful tool for contact with the market.
The systematic and intelligent use of this tool can reduce risks of decision making under conditions of
uncertainty.
Through a market survey we can obtain information in the following areas:
�size of market
�pattern of demand
�buying habits and motives
�past and present trends for this or other products.

FIVE STEPS OF MARKET SURVEY ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Step1: Define objectives and specify information to be collected.
• Identifying sources of information
• Assessing time and costs required for the survey
• Selecting methodology
• Preparing an action plan
Step 2: Select a sample
• Determining where to conduct the survey
• Determining when to conduct the survey
Step 3: Prepare a questionnaire for the survey
Step 4: Collect data and analyze the information obtained
Step 5: Prepare a report based on data analyzed
In marketing survey information on following ten points are carried out.
• Market
• Buyers/ customers
• Raw materials
• Machinery, equipment
• Competitors
• Furniture
• Manpower
• Capital and risks
• Rules and regulations
• Marketing

Demand forecasting

Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will
purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal methods, such as educated
guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of historical sales data or current data from test markets.
Demand forecasting may be used in making pricing decisions, in assessing future capacity requirements, or
in making decisions on whether to enter a new market.

Necessity for forecasting demand

Often forecasting demand is confused with forecasting sales. But, failing to forecast demand ignores two
important phenomena. There is a lot of debate in demand-planning literature about how to measure and
represent historical demand, since the historical demand forms the basis of forecasting. The main question
is whether we should use the history of outbound shipments or customer orders or a combination of the two
as proxy for the demand.

Stock effects

The effects that inventory levels have on sales. In the extreme case of stock-outs, demand coming into your
store is not converted to sales due to a lack of availability. Demand is also untapped when sales for an item
are decreased due to a poor display location, or because the desired sizes are no longer available. For
example, when a consumer electronics retailer does not display a particular
flat-screen TV, sales for that model are typically lower than the sales for
models on display. And in fashion retailing, once the stock level of a
particular sweater falls to the point where standard sizes are no longer available, sales of that item are
diminished.

Market response effect

The effect of market events that are within and beyond a retailer’s control. Demand for an item will likely
rise if a competitor increases the price or if you promote the item in your weekly circular. The resulting
sales a change in demand as a result of consumers responding to stimuli that potentially drive additional
sales. Regardless of the stimuli, these forces need to be factored into planning and managed within the
demand forecast.
In this case demand forecasting uses techniques in causal modeling. Demand forecast modeling considers
the size of the market and the dynamics of market share versus competitors and its effect on firm demand
over a period of time. In the manufacturer to retailer model, promotional events are an important causal
factor in influencing demand. These promotions can be modeled with intervention models or use a
consensus to aggregate intelligence using internal collaboration with the Sales and Marketing functions.

Methods

No demand forecasting method is 100% accurate. Combined forecasts improve accuracy and reduce the
likelihood of large errors. Reference class forecasting was developed to reduce error and increase accuracy
in forecasting, including in demand forecasting.

Methods that rely on qualitative assessment:-

Forecasting demand based on expert opinion. Some of the types in this method are,

Unaided judgment
Prediction market
Delphi technique
Game theory
Judgmental bootstrapping
 Simulated interaction
Intentions and expectations surveys
Conjoint analysis

Methods that rely on quantitative data

Discrete Event Simulation

Extrapolation
Quantitative analogies
Rule-based forecasting
Neural networks
Data mining
Causal models
Segmentation

1. Methods Based on Judgment

Unaided judgment METHOD:-
It is common practice to ask experts what will happen. This is a good procedure to use when
• Experts are unbiased
• Large changes are unlikely
• Relationships are well understood by experts (e.g., demand goes up when prices go down)
• Experts possess privileged information
• Experts receive accurate and well-summarized feedback about their forecasts.

Prediction markets METHOD:-

Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, and futures markets have a long
history. Some commercial organizations provide internet markets and software that to allow participants
to predict. Consultants can also set up betting markets within firms to bet on such things as the sales
growth of a new product. PREDICTIONS can produce accurate sales forecasts when used within
companies. However, there are no empirical studies that compare forecasts from prediction markets and
with those from traditional groups or from other methods.
Delphi Method:-
The Delphi technique helps to capture the knowledge of diverse experts
while avoiding the disadvantages of traditional group meetings. The latter
include bullying and time-wasting.
To forecast with Delphi the administrator should recruit between five and twenty suitable experts and poll
them for their forecasts and reasons. The administrator then provides the experts with anonymous summary
statistics on the forecasts, and experts’ reasons for their forecasts. The process is repeated until there is little
change in forecasts between rounds – two or three rounds are usually sufficient. The Delphi forecast is the
median or mode of the experts’ final forecasts.
The forecasts from Delphi groups are substantially more accurate than forecasts from unaided judgment
and traditional groups, and are somewhat more accurate than combined forecasts from unaided judgment.

Structured analogies method:-

The outcomes of similar situations from the past (analogies) may help a marketer to forecast the outcome
of a new (target) situation. For example, the introduction of new products in the markets can provide
analogies for the outcomes of the subsequent release of similar products in other countries.
People often use analogies to make forecasts, but they do not do so in a structured manner. For example,
they might search for an analogy that suits their prior beliefs or they might stop searching when they
identify one analogy. The structured-analogies method uses a formal process to overcome biased and
inefficient use of information from analogous situations.
To use the structured analogies method, an administrator prepares a description of the target situation and
selects experts who have knowledge of analogous situations; preferably direct experience. The experts
identify and describe analogous situations, rate their similarity to the target situation, and match the
outcomes of their analogies with potential outcomes in the target situation. The administrator then derives
forecasts from the information the experts provided on their most similar analogies.
Structured analogies are more accurate than unaided judgment in forecasting decisions .

Judgmental Decomposition Method:-

The basic idea behind judgmental decomposition is to divide the forecasting problem into parts that are
easier to forecast than the whole. One then forecasts the parts individually, using methods appropriate to
each part. Finally, the parts are combined to obtain a forecast.
One approach is to break the problem down into multiplicative components.
For example, to forecast sales for a brand, one can forecast industry sales
volume, market share, and selling price per unit. Then reassemble the
problem by multiplying the components together. Empirical results indicate that, in general, forecasts from
decomposition are more accurate than those from a global approach. In particular, decomposition is more
accurate where there is much uncertainty about the aggregate forecast and where large numbers (over one
million) are involved.

Expert systems Method:-

As the name implies, expert systems are structured representations of the rules experts use to make
predictions or diagnoses. For example, ‘if local household incomes are in the bottom quartile, then do not
supply premium brands’. The forecast is implicit in the foregoing conditional action statement: i.e.,
premium brands are unlikely to make an acceptable return in the locale. Rules are often created from
protocols, whereby forecasters talk about what they are doing while making forecasts. Where empirical
estimates of relationships from structured analysis such as econometric studies are available, expert
systems should use that information. Expert opinion, conjoint analysis, and bootstrapping can also aid in
the development of expert systems.
Expert systems forecasting involves identifying forecasting rules used by experts and rules learned from
empirical research. One should aim for simplicity and completeness in the resulting system, and the system
should explain forecasts to users.
Developing an expert system is expensive and so the method will only be of interest in situations where
many forecasts of a similar kind are required. Expert systems are feasible where problems are sufficiently
well-structured for rules to be identified. Expert systems forecasts are more accurate than those from
unaided judgment.

Simulated interaction Method:-

Simulated interaction is a form of role playing for predicting decisions by people who are interacting with
others. It is especially useful when the situation involves conflict. For example, one might wish to forecast
how best to secure an exclusive distribution arrangement with a major supplier. To use simulated
interaction, an administrator prepares a description of the target situation, describes the main protagonists’
roles, and provides a list of possible decisions. Role players adopt a role and read about the situation. They
then improvise realistic interactions with the other role players until they reach a decision; for example to
sign a trial one-year exclusive distribution agreement. The role players’
decisions are used to make the forecast.
Forecasts from simulated interactions were substantially more accurate than
can be obtained from unaided judgment. Simulated interaction can also help to maintain secrecy.
Information on simulated interaction is available from conflictforecasting.com.

Intentions and expectations surveys Method:-

With intentions surveys, people are asked how they intend to behave in specified situations. In a similar
manner, an expectations survey asks people how they expect to behave. Expectations differ from intentions
because people realize that unintended things happen. For example, if you were asked whether you
intended to visit the dentist in the next six months you might say no. However, you realize that a problem
might arise that would necessitate such a visit, so your expectations would be that the event had a
probability greater than zero.

Expectations and intentions can be obtained using probability scales . The scale should have descriptions
such as 0 = ‘No chance, or almost no chance (1 in 100)’ to 10 = ‘Certain, or practically certain (99 in
100)’.
To forecast demand using a survey of potential consumers, the administrator should prepare an accurate
and comprehensive description of the product and conditions of sale. He should select a representative
sample of the population of interest and develop questions to elicit expectations from respondents. Bias in
responses should be assessed if possible and the data adjusted accordingly. The behavior of the population
is forecast by aggregating the survey responses.

2. Methods requiring quantitative data:-

Extrapolation Method:-
Extrapolation methods use historical data on that which one wishes to forecast. Exponential smoothing is
the most popular and cost effective of the statistical extrapolation methods. It implements the principle that
recent data should be weighted more heavily and ‘smoothes’ out cyclical fluctuations to forecast the trend.
To use exponential smoothing to extrapolate, the administrator should first clean and deseasonalise the
data, and select reasonable smoothing factors. The administrator then
calculates an average and trend from the data and uses these to derive a
forecast
Statistical extrapolations are cost effective when forecasts are needed for each of hundreds of inventory
items. They are also useful where forecasters are biased or ignorant of the situation .
Allow for seasonality when using quarterly, monthly, or daily data. Most firms do this . Seasonality
adjustments led to substantial gains in accuracy in the large-scale study of time series

Quantitative analogies Method:-

Experts can identify situations that are analogous to a given situation. These can be used to extrapolate the
outcome of a target situation. For example, to assess the loss in sales when the patent protection for a drug
is removed, one might examine the historical pattern of sales for analogous drugs.
To forecast using quantitative analogies, ask experts to identify situations that are analogous to the target
situation and for which data are available. If the analogous data provides information about the future of
the target situation, such as per capita ticket sales for a play that is touring from city to city, forecast by
calculating averages. If not, construct one model using target situation data and another using analogous
data. Combine the parameters of the models, and forecast with the combined model.

Rule-based forecasting Method:-

Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is a type of expert system that allows one to integrate managers’ knowledge
about the domain with time-series data in a structured and inexpensive way. For example, in many cases a
useful guideline is that trends should be extrapolated only when they agree with managers’ prior
expectations. When the causal forces are contrary to the trend in the historical series, forecast errors tend to
be large. Although such problems occur only in a small percentage of cases, their effects are serious.
To apply RBF, one must first identify features of the series using statistical analysis, inspection, and
domain knowledge (including causal forces). The rules are then used to adjust data, and to estimate short-
and long-range models. RBF forecasts are a blend of the short- and long-range model forecasts.
RBF is most useful when substantive domain knowledge is available, patterns are discernable in the series,
trends are strong, and forecasts are needed for long horizons. Under such conditions, errors for rule-based
forecasts are substantially less than those for combined forecasts . In cases where the conditions were not
met, forecast accuracy is not harmed.
Neural nets Method:-
Neural networks are computer intensive methods that use decision processes
analogous to those of the human brain. Like the brain, they have the
capability of learning as patterns change and updating their parameter estimates. However, much data is
needed in order to estimate neural network models and to reduce the risk of over-fitting the data .There is
some evidence that neural network models can produce forecasts that are more accurate than those from
other methods. While this is encouraging, our current advice is to avoid neural networks because the
method ignores prior knowledge and because the results are difficult to understand.
Data mining Method:-
Data mining uses sophisticated statistical analyses to identify relationships. It is a popular approach. Data
mining ignores theory and prior knowledge in a search for patterns. Despite ambitious claims and much
research effort, we are not aware of evidence that data mining techniques provide benefits for forecasting.
Causal models Method:-
Causal models are based on prior knowledge and theory. Time-series regression and cross-sectional
regression are commonly used for estimating model parameters or coefficients. These models allow one to
examine the effects of marketing activity, such as a change in price, as well as key aspects of the market,
thus providing information for contingency planning.
To develop causal models, one needs to select causal variables by using theory and prior knowledge. The
key is to identify important variables, the direction of their effects, and any constraints. One should aim for
a relatively simple model and use all available data to estimate it. Surprisingly, sophisticated statistical
procedures have not led to more accurate forecasts. In fact, crude estimates are often sufficient to provide
accurate forecasts when using cross-sectional data.
 ANALYSIS

Introduction
I have conducted a survey for the year 2010 by asking questions to various people who buy from various
retail stores,and also through questionnaires.

The study will help us to know the Market demand for the year 2011 of the consumer for Vodafone mobile
communication service provider in Pune.

The Mode of Study

The data was collected through sampling method.

I had taken 100 as my sample size. In this research I used the method of Questionnaire and
Interviewing.

Questionnaire was given and filled by the consumers of various age groups and the Store Manager.

Some of the Consumers were interviewed to clarify some of the issues.

 During the survey the following Data is collected and
presented graphically:

1) No. Of users of the Vodafone Mobile Services:

Total No. Of users of the Mobile

Services
Year 2009 2010
Airtel 18 20
Vodafone 15 25
Idea 20 14
Tata 8 10
Aircel 19 06
Reliance 10 12
BSNL 08 08
Others 02 05
TOTAL 100 100

Vodafone is most preferred brand and we can say that it will increase year by year.
 2) Satisfaction level Vodafone users:

The table below is showing the satisfaction level of the customer in each mobile Communication
provider. (Scale is 1-Highly dissatisfied increasing as 10 –highly satisfied).

Satisfaction level Of The Consumer

Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total No Of
Customers in 2010
Airtel 2 0 4 1 2 4 5 1 1 3 20
Vodafone 1 0 2 3 0 4 6 2 2 4 25
Idea 1 2 0 1 0 3 1 1 3 2 14
Tata 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 0 1 10
Aircel 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 2 0 06
Reliance 0 1 3 0 1 2 1 3 0 1 12
BSNL 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 08
Others 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 05

We can say that over all consumers are satisfied with Vodafone in the year 2010 and it will
continue if we will continue in providing the good services.
 3) Vodafone’s Brand Loyalty:

From the following collected data we come to know that how much the customer loyal to Vodafone.

A question was asked while doing the survey that would the customer shift to another brand.

And various answers I have got.

Brand Loyalty Of The Customer for 2010

Brand Loyal Switcher Total
Airtel 12 8 20
Vodafone 14 11 25
Idea 6 8 14
Tata 4 6 10
Aircel 3 3 06
Reliance 7 5 12
BSNL 1 7 08
Others 2 3 05

From the given data we can conclude that the no of loyal customers are with VODAFONE.
5) Suggestions on Improvement or changes:

VODAFONE
1. Hide networking areas.
2. Free internet.
3. E-mail and voice messaging.

Conclusion

Demand forecasting for VODAFONE:-

We may predict that the market demand for the VODAFONE will definitely increase as we see the
previous year’s Demand and no of users we can say that consumers are happier with the brand compared to
other brands.

Suggestions for maintaining the Demand:-

1. Start up a new ad campaign like ZOOZOOZ.

2. Improve customer services.
3. Increasing the network.
4. Lowering the call rates.
 ANXITURE 1

Questionnaire

Name:
Age:
Occupation:
Address:

[Mark ( ) whichever is appropriate.]

1. Which Mobile Connection are you using these days?

Airtel Vodafone Idea Tata Aircel Reliance BSNL Others

2. Since how long are you using this connection?

Less than 3 months

Less than 6 months

Less than 12 months (1 year)

More than 12 months (1 year)

3. Are you satisfied with the connection you are using?

Yes No Can’t say

4. If yes then which feature of the service of your service provider makes you
feel Comfortable?

Lower call rates

Good connectivity

New offers and special tariff plans

Good customer service

All of the above

5. If no then which feature of the service of your service provider makes you feel dissatisfied?

High call rates

Bad connectivity

No good offers

Bad customer service

All of the above

6. Had you used any connection before started using this connection?

Yes No
7. From which store you generally buy your mobile service?

Any Retail Mobile Store

The Mobile Store

8. In general, Rate the satisfaction level of your existing connection

Dissatisfying Satisfying Very Satisfying

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

9. Would you like to change your mobile service if you are not satisfied?

Yes No

10. What feature or services would you like to be changed or improved in the near Future? What are your
suggestions?
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Thank You.