Biden-Harris Administration:

Overview of Geopolitical and Socio-

Economic Policy in the West Philippine
Sea/South China Sea
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Webinar Presentation to Biden-Harris Administration Forum
hosted by the
National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea,
Manila, The Philippines,
January 20, 2021
Will Biden follow the course of Obama, Trump, or
will Biden chart his own course with regard to the
geopolitical and socioeconomic policies in the
South China Sea / West Philippine Sea?
 Biden Administration
• First hundred days “honeymoon”?
• Confirmation of Cabinet members and other appointees
including ambassadors
• U.S., National Security Strategy due for submission to
Congress in 150 days followed by:
• National Defence Strategy of the United States
• Maritime Strategy
• Indo-Pacific Strategy
 Senate Confirmation Hearings
• Hearings for five key officials on January 19:
• Secretary of State Antony Blinken
• Secretary of Defense Gen. Lloyd Austin (US Army
retired)
• Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen
• Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro
Mayorkas
• Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines
 Secretary of State
• Antony Blinken
• CONFIRMATION NEEDED
• Announced Nov. 23, 2020
• The position: Leads foreign policy, diplomacy for the president
around the world.
• The nominee: Antony Blinken was Deputy Secretary of State and
Deputy National Security Adviser during the Obama Administration.
Blinken also advised Vice President Joe Biden on national. The two
worked together when Biden served on the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee.
 Secretary of Defense
• Gen. Lloyd Austin (U.S. Army retired)
• CONFIRMATION NEEDED
• Announced Dec. 8, 2020
• The position: Advises the president on national defense and oversees
the U.S. military.
• The nominee: Lloyd Austin is a retired U.S. Army four-star general
who served in the military for 41 years. From 2013 until 2016, he was
head of U.S. Central Command. If confirmed, Austin will be the first
African American Secretary of Defense.
• Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense (China) Ely Ratner
 U.S. Trade Representative
• Katherine Tai
• CONFIRMATION NEEDED
• Announced Dec. 10, 2020
• The position: Advises on trade policy and negotiates trade deals.
• The nominee: Katherine Tai is the chief trade counsel for the House
Committee on Ways and Means. She was previously a senior member
of the Office of the General Counsel for the U.S. Trade Representative
during the Obama Administration, responsible for China trade
enforcement issues. If confirmed, Tai will be the first woman of colour
to hold this position.
National Security Advisor
• Jacob J. Sullivan
• CONFIRMATION NOT NEEDED
• Announced November 23, 2020
• The position: National Security Advisor to the President
• The nominee: Senior Policy Advisor (foreign policy) to Hillary
Clinton’s 2016 presidential election campaign, Deputy Assistant to
President Obama, National Security Advisor to Vice President Joe
Biden, Deputy Chief of Staff at the Department of State, Senior
Advisor to the U.S. Government for the Iran nuclear negotiations
Indo—Pacific Coordinator
• Kurt Campbell
• CONFIRMATION NOT NEEDED
• Announced January 13, 2021
• The position: Advises the President on US foreign policy for Asia and
China in the National Security Council
• The nominee: Chairman and CEO of The Asia Group, Former Assistant
Secretary of State for Asia and the Pacific, Deputy Assistant Secretary
of Defense for Asia and the Pacific, Director of the National Security
Council Staff, CEO and co-founder Center for a New American Security
 South China Sea/West Philippine Sea
• U.S. national interests will not change
• Trade and investment
• Support for allies (Japan, Australia, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand) and
partners (Singapore, Indonesia)
• Support ASEAN and ASEAN-led mechanisms EAS, ARF, ADMM-Plus
• But human rights and religious freedom will be on Biden agenda
• Freedom of navigation and overflight between West Pacific and
Indian Ocean
• FONOPs, naval exercises, and bomber deployments to continue
• Biden Administration unlikely to ratify UNCLOS
Due to the recent escalation in tensions between
Australia and China, what does Australia expect
the Biden Administration to do about China, and
how will this affect the South China Sea/West
Philippine Sea issue?
 Australia and the United States
• China will top Biden’s agenda in the Indo-Pacific
• Indo-Pacific construct here to stay
• Trilateral Security Cooperation (US, Japan, Australia)
• Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (US, Japan, India, Australia)
• ‘True blue mate’ – greater access to The White House
• No disruption to planning approved by AUSMIN (2 + 2)
• Increased naval exercises in South China Sea
• Support for Award by Arbitral Tribunal
 Jake Sullivan on China
• "And one of the major examples of that is that the United States
has gone it alone in its trade fight with China, rather than rallying
other like-minded democracies, other market economies that
collectively comprise 50[%] to 60% of the world's economy,
where if we got all of them lined up and went to China with a
common agenda to say, 'We won't accept these subsidies, this
intellectual property theft, this dumping,' we would be in a
position to get China to either change its behavior, or we could
collectively impose costs on China for not doing so."
• NPR, December 30, 2020
 Biden-Harris Administration:
Overview of Geopolitical and Socio-
Economic Policy in the West Philippine
Sea/South China Sea
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Webinar Presentation to Biden-Harris Administration Forum
hosted by the
National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea,
Manila, The Philippines,
January 20, 2021