Predictive Analytics : QM901.

1x
Prof U Dinesh Kumar, IIMB

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 Predictive Analytics : QM901.1x
Prof U Dinesh Kumar, IIMB

Those who have knowledge don’t predict.

Those who predict don’t have knowledge.

- Lao Tzu

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 Predictive Analytics : QM901.1x
Prof U Dinesh Kumar, IIMB

I think there is a world market for may be 5 computers

- Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM 1943

Computers in future weigh no more than 1.5 tons

- Popular Mechanics, 1949

640K ought to be enough for everybody

- Bill Gates, 1981???

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 Predictive Analytics : QM901.1x

Forecasting
Prof U Dinesh Kumar, IIMB

• Forecasting is a process of estimation of an unknown event/parameter

such as demand for a product.

• Forecasting is commonly used to refer time series data.

• Time series is a sequence of data points measured at successive time

intervals.

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 Predictive Analytics : QM901.1x
Corporate Prof U Dinesh Kumar, IIMB
Strategy

Business Product and Market Product and Market Strategy

Forecasting Planning

Aggregate Resource Planning -

Aggregate Production
Medium to Long Range
Forecasting Planning
Planning

Item Production Capacity - Short

Master Production
Forecasting Planning Range Planning

Demand Materials Capacity Requirement

forecasting at SKU Requirement Planning
Level Planning

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 Predictive Analytics : QM901.1x
Prof U Dinesh Kumar, IIMB

Forecasting methods

• Qualitative Techniques.
– Expert opinion (or Astrologers)

• Quantitative Techniques.
– Time series techniques such as exponential smoothing

• Casual Models.
– Uses information about relationship between system elements
(e.g regression).

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