PREFACE

Trae Young is one of the most unfairly criticized budding young superstars, ever. If that sounds like
hyperbole, it’s probably because I’ve been revisiting old Luka Doncic vs Trae Young takes that make even
more absurd claims than the one I just did. But don’t take my word for it, here’s Bill Simmons claiming
that the 2018 Luka-Trae trade is “one of the five worst trades of this century”.

“Hot takes” like this one are par for the course in sports media so it’s understandable why he said it. But
what I don’t understand is why people can’t appreciate both Luka and Trae, and why they have to resort
to criticizing Trae in order to elevate Luka. And what’s even more surprising is that while the NBA media
and fans love young players with potential, and love projecting how good a player might become – this is
true for Boston’s Jayson Tatum, Utah’s Donovan Mitchell, and New Orleans’ Zion Williamson – they
don’t seem to love Trae the same way.

Instead, Trae has become the whipping boy whenever Luka has a triple-double or hits a game winning
shot; and when Trae does do something that only other superstars can do, he’s discredited because his
team isn’t winning. This seems unfair to me.

So this is my attempt to convince everyone that they’re wrong and that Trae Young is a superstar and is
deserving of the same praise that other young superstars get despite his teams’ struggles.

1
PART I – TRAE YOUNG IS BETTER THAN YOU THINK HE IS
Trae’s 2019-20 Season is One of the Best Statistical Seasons Ever Despite Nobody Realizing It

In the 2019-20 NBA season, Trae Young averaged 29.6 PPG, 9.3 APG, and 4.3 RPG. Let’s start off with a
very basic look into how this stacks up historically.

For starters, only 4 players in the history of the NBA had ever averaged 29+ PPG and 9+ APG for a
season. Of those 4 players, 3 have won MVPs and all 4 will be in the Hall of Fame.

• Oscar Robertson did it 7 times (won MVP in 1963-64; NBA HOFer)

• Nate “Tiny” Archibald in 1972-73 (NBA HOFer)
• James Harden in 2016-17 (finished 2nd for MVP; lock for the NBA HOF)
• Russell Westbrook in 2016-17 (won MVP; lock for the NBA HOF)
• …and now Trae

Some might argue that Trae only accomplished this feat because of his high Usage Rate. Well, since the
1977-78 season Trae’s Usage Rate of 34.9% this season ranks 32nd, and there are 69 total instances of a
player using at least a third of their teams’ possessions (33% Usage Rate).

In fact, here are just some of the players who had seasons with a higher Usage Rate than Trae, yet did
not accomplish what Trae did:

• Allen Iverson (5x), Kobe Bryant (3x), Tracy McGrady (3x), James Harden (3x), Michael Jordan
(2x), Dwyane Wade (2x), Russell Westbrook (2x), Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x), Luka Doncic (1x),
Carmelo Anthony (1x), Dominique Wilkins (1x), Bernard King (1x)

Source: Basketball Reference

So basically, in the period for which we have data on Usage Rate (after 1977), there have been 31
instances of a player with a Usage Rate as high or higher than Trae, yet 29 and 9 has only happened 3
times…and one of those players was Russell Westbrook with an outrageous 41.7% Usage Rate.

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Further, as mentioned, if we broaden the sample set to include all seasons with a >33% Usage Rate,
Trae’s 2019-20 stat line has only been accomplished 3 times in 69 seasons, or 4.3% of the time in which
players used a significant portion of their teams’ possessions. So while Trae’s Usage Rate was historically
high, it’s not nearly enough to explain his extraordinary season.

But what about Atlanta’s blistering pace, doesn’t that explain Trae’s historical stat line?

Not really.

According to Basketball Reference, Atlanta was 5th in pace this season (7th according to NBA.com),
behind Milwaukee, Houston, New Orleans, and Minnesota. However, Atlanta’s pace was only 193rd all
time, behind many of the teams from the mid-late 1970s and parts of the 1980s.

Source: Basketball Reference

I know what you might be thinking…”lots of ball dominant players can put up huge counting stats on
losing teams just by taking a ton of shots!” But what if I told you that Trae’s combination of raw
counting stats plus elite scoring efficiency is even more rare than the accomplishment I outlined above?

Here’s the entire list of players who have ever averaged 29+ PPG and 9+ APG while sporting a True
Shooting Percentage (TS%) of at least 59%:

• James Harden in 2016-17: 29.1 PPG / 11.2 APG / 61.3% TS%

• Trae Young in 2019-20: 29.6 PPG / 9.3 APG / 59.5% TS%
Note: I believe True Shooting Percentage is a much more reflective measure of a player’s scoring efficiency than FG% or eFG%
given the weight afforded to free throws. Trae Young averaged 9.3 FTAs per game in 2019-20, 3rd most in the NBA.

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Maybe now you’re thinking “well, 29 PPG and 9 APG are arbitrary cutoffs. Plus, Trae and Harden are two
of the most ball dominant players ever so it’s no surprise they’re in a list together. And neither of them
has ever won anything anyway!”

Okay, so how about we broaden the criteria a bit. Here’s a list of every player that has ever averaged
28+ PPG and 8+ APG with a 59% or better TS%:

• Michael Jordan in 1988-89: 32.5 PPG / 8.0 APG / 61.4% TS% - Finished 2nd for MVP
• Lebron James in 2009-10: 29.7 PPG / 8.6 APG / 60.4% TS% - Won MVP
• James Harden in 2016-17: 29.1 PPG / 11.2 APG / 61.3% TS% - Finished 2nd for MVP
• James Harden in 2017-18: 30.4 PPG / 8.8 APG / 61.9% TS% - Won MVP
• Damian Lillard in 2019-20: 30.0 PPG / 8.0 APG / 62.7% TS% - All NBA 2nd Team
• Trae Young in 2019-20: 29.6 PPG / 9.3 APG / 59.5% TS% - “Shouldn’t have been an All-Star
starter”

I’d like to emphasize the point that of the 6 instances in which this has occurred, 2 were MVP seasons, 2
were runner up MVPs, 1 received all NBA 2nd Team honors, and yet Trae got dragged on social media for
being undeserving of starting in the Eastern Conference All-Star game. Some people even suggested he
shouldn’t have been an All-Star at all!

Oh, and that list now includes a combined 10 championship rings.

But maybe you’re still convinced that the cutoff points for these stats are too arbitrary, or that without
context, assists aren’t a good measure of points created (I tend to agree but that’s a discussion for
another time). So let’s get rid of assists altogether and see how Trae’s season stacks up from a pure
scoring efficiency standpoint.

In the last 20 years only 8 other players have averaged 28+ PPG while sporting a True Shooting % of at
least 59%:

• Kevin Durant (5x)

• James Harden (5x)
• Lebron James (2x)
• Steph Curry (1x)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
• Isaiah Thomas (1x)
• Anthony Davis (1x)
• Damian Lillard (1x)
• …and now Trae

Seems like pretty good company for Trae to be in.

If you broaden the list to include all seasons that TS% data is available, the number of players who have
accomplished this only increases marginally, from 8 to 14, with some notable inclusions like Michael
Jordan, Larry Bird, Charles Barkley, and Karl Malone…all Hall of Famers.

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This next point might be taking it too far but this is exactly how I would evaluate a business if I were
looking to invest in it.

In 2019-20 Trae played in 60 of a possible 67 games prior to the league shutting down due to Covid-19.
However, there were 2 games in which Trae left early in the game after suffering ankle injuries (11
minutes played vs Miami in October, and 15 minutes played vs Milwaukee in December), and therefore
his per game stats are slightly understated. If you remove those two games from his season totals,
Trae’s averages increase to 30.4 PPG, 9.6 APG, and 4.4 RPG but the percentages all remain unchanged.

Players leave games or play reduced minutes all the time for various reasons such as ejections, foul
trouble or fouling out, injuries, blowouts, coach-related punishments etc., so one might argue that it’s
unfair to exclude games just because a player got injured. My response to that would be, if I want to
understand or compare the true underlying performance and value of a player over the course of a
season, I need to make sure I adjust for notable idiosyncratic things that could either positively or
negatively impact that evaluation. The same is true for analyzing businesses and their profits – you
wouldn’t extrapolate a company’s earnings based on a quarter in which one of their factories was closed
due to a fire or flood, instead you would want to see the true underlying earnings power of that
business when all factories are operating normally.

Anyway, the purpose of the adjustment is straightforward – if you run Trae’s adjusted stat line and
efficiency measures through history, the company he is in becomes even more rare than what I
demonstrated previously.

30+ PPG and 59%+ TS% had happened only 14 times in NBA history by 6 different players:

• Michael Jordan (4x)

• Adrian Dantley (3x)
• James Harden (3x)
• Kevin Durant (2x)
• Steph Curry (1x)
• Karl Malone (1x)
• …and now Trae

If you filter the above to include players who also averaged 8+ APG, the list becomes:

• Michael Jordan in 1988-89 – Finished 2nd for MVP

• James Harden in 2017-18 – Won MVP
• …and now Trae

And lastly, if you filter the above to include players who averaged 9+ APG, the list has only one player:

• Trae Young in 2019-20

Note: There were 7 other games in which Trae played less than 30 minutes for various common reasons (12% of the total games
he played in 2019-20). It would not be correct to adjust those out.

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Before moving on to the next section it’s worth highlighting another very important point regarding
Trae’s scoring prowess and his elite efficiency: he is doing all this despite being double-teamed and
trapped at an incredibly high rate.

The graphic below is from January 2020 and shows how often Trae got double-teamed on pick plays in
2019-20. I couldn’t find updated data for the full season, but I imagine it tells the same story.

This second graphic is for the entire 2018-19 NBA season. This one is even more telling considering it
shows that Trae was the 5th most double-teamed player in the NBA despite being a rookie.

And here’s an incredible fact that foreshadowed Trae’s NBA experience:

“Trae Young was double-teamed on 43.7% of touches past half court in his freshman year at Oklahoma,
the closest a PG has ever been to that was Stephen Curry at 31.4%” – via Magic Junkies on Twitter

Now that we’ve established how Trae’s impressive statistical season ranks historically, it’s time to move
on to the next topic.

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Is Trae an “Empty Stats” player?

Despite Trae’s prodigious individual statistical season, the Atlanta Hawks won just 30% of their games, a
24-25 win pace in a normal 82 game season. This team result has been a huge black mark for Trae and
has led to many media personalities and fans labeling him as a “good stats, bad team” player whose
stats are “empty”. It’s not at all surprising though given that people in today’s connected society are
addicted to instant gratification and immediate results – this has seeped into the sports world as
marque players are switching teams more often than ever, as the annual coaching carousel is
accelerating with 10 NBA teams changing coaches in the 2020 off-season, and as fans are becoming as
impatient as ever. I, however, emphatically disagree with this assessment of Trae and instead view it as
incredibly myopic, intellectually lazy, and driven primarily by short-termism. Here’s why I think Trae’s
stats are not “empty”.

First off, it’s rare for young players that were high draft picks to win many games early in their careers
because high draft picks usually belong to bad teams. Here are some examples of currently great players
and their teams’ winning percentage early in their career:

• Kevin Durant: 26% (first 2 seasons)

• Giannis Antetokounmpo: 36% (first 3 seasons)
• Steph Curry: 37% (first 3 seasons)
• Anthony Davis: 37% (first 2 seasons) and 44% (first 7 seasons, including 5 losing seasons)

And here are some notable NBA Champions / HOFers who also had limited team success to start their
careers:

• Pau Gasol: 31% (first 2 seasons) and 44% (first 6 seasons)

• Paul Pierce: 42% (first 3 seasons) and 45% (first 9 seasons, including 6 losing seasons)
• Michael Jordan: 3 consecutive losing seasons to start his career (2 if you exclude the broken foot
year in which he only played 18 games)
• Kobe Bryant without Shaq: the Lakers won 34 games in 2004-2005 and just 49% of their games
from 2004-2007

But if you don’t like these cherry-picked examples, here’s a chart that shows team winning percentage
by age cohort since 2010 (330 datapoints).

Source: Basketball
Reference

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Atlanta was the youngest team in the NBA this season at 24.1 years old despite 43-year old Vince Carter
being on the roster and playing in 60 games. Over the last 11 seasons, teams with an average age of 24
or below achieved a winning percentage of just 34%. However, this cohort of data (<24 years old)
includes 2 seasons of a historic Oklahoma City Thunder team that had 3 future MVPs and Serge Ibaka –
excluding this OKC team results in the winning percentage of the cohort falling to 30%.

So why does this matter?

In 2019-20 Atlanta won 30% of their games, exactly in-line with other young teams over the last 11
seasons. The Atlanta Hawks are rebuilding through the draft and that results in lots of young players
getting big minutes in real games, which usually results in lots of losses. And generally, productive older
veteran players are not looking to waste their twilight years on losing teams.

So is all of this losing Trae’s fault or just a product of how teams, particularly in small markets, are built?

Basketball Reference says that in 2019-20 the league average Offensive Rating (ORtg), or team points
scored per 100 possessions, was 110.6. Atlanta with Trae on the court scored 112.6 points per 100
possessions, which suggests that their offense with Trae was slightly better than league average.
However, with Trae off the court, Atlanta’s points per 100 possessions dips all the way to 98.5. For
context, this -14.1 drop-off when Trae was off the court is larger than the -11.5 difference between the
best offense in the NBA (Dallas at 116.7) and the worst (Golden State at 105.2) in 2019-20.

In fact, Atlanta’s massive drop off in offensive production when Trae was off the floor is fairly close to
the offensive difference between the 73-win Warriors (114.5 ORtg) and the 2015-16 Philadelphia 76ers
team that won just 10 games (98.8 ORtg). It’s also noteworthy that Atlanta’s offense with Trae off the
floor (98.5 ORtg) was actually worse than that 10-win 76ers team (98.8).

It’s hard to win games when your team doesn’t score with you off the court.

Source: Basketball Reference

Source: Basketball Reference

8
To further put Trae’s +14.1 net ORtg into perspective, the championship winning Lakers saw their
offense improve by +5.2 points per 100 possessions with Lebron on the court, the top seeded Bucks saw
their offense improve by +4.9 points with MVP Giannis on the court, and Dallas (with their league
leading offense) saw their offense improve by +3.7 points with All-NBA first teamer Luka Doncic on the
court.

Source: Basketball Reference

One thing to point out is that while these offensive net ratings are informative in assessing a player’s
relative impact on team performance, they do require context. For example, it’s much easier for Trae to
have a larger positive on-off ORtg differential than it is for Luka because one is being compared to a
bench unit that is so horrendously bad while Dallas’ bench production was historically strong. The
necessary context is that Atlanta’s offense with Trae was slightly above league average while Dallas’
offense with Luka was the best of all time. That being said, Trae elevating this Atlanta team to a league
average offense in 2019-20 is arguably just as impressive as Dallas leading the league in offense…but
more on this later.

The final caveat here is that these are all offensive differentials and Trae young is a bad defender so his
overall net rating takes a hit when factoring in that the opponent’s offense is more effective with Trae
on the court. However, according to Cleaning The Glass, Trae’s overall on-off net rating (including
defense) of +8.4 compares favorably to +10.3 for Lebron James, +9.6 for James Harden, and +1.8 for
Luka Doncic. Trae’s +8.4 on-off net rating is estimated to contribute +17 wins over the course of an 82
game season.

The conclusion here appears clear – Trae Young’s elite offensive contributions more than make up for
his well-known defensive deficiencies and will result in on court success as long as Atlanta surrounds
him with other complementary NBA caliber players, particularly those that can provide offense when he
is on the bench.

9
But maybe you’re still convinced he’s a “good stats, bad team” player on a team that plays with pace
and that just because the offense is not the worst of all time with him on the court, that doesn’t mean
he’s a great player.

To that I say, here are 20 examples of players who would more accurately reflect the “empty” stats
moniker. On average these players used approximately 30% of their teams’ possessions, put up a stat
line of 21 PPG / 6 RPG / 4 APG, but ranked below league average in efficiency and their teams were
usually not much better with them on the court, if at all.
Season Stats On-Off Court Team Performance
Player Season Team Age Minutes PPG RPG APG USG% ORtg FG% TS% ORtg Net ORtg Wins Losses Win %
Ron Harper 1986-87 CLE 23 37.4 22.9 4.8 4.8 29% 99 46% 50% - - 31 51 38%
Ron Harper 1993-94 LAC 30 38.1 20.1 6.1 4.6 26% 99 43% 50% - - 27 55 33%
Antoine Walker 1997-98 BOS 21 39.9 22.4 10.2 3.3 29% 98 42% 48% 1.4 -8.3 36 46 44%
Shawn Kemp 1999-00 CLE 30 30.4 17.8 8.8 1.7 30% 96 42% 51% 4.1 7.7 32 50 39%
Antoine Walker 2000-01 BOS 24 41.9 23.4 8.9 5.5 29% 99 41% 51% 10.3 0.7 36 46 44%
Latrell Sprewell 2000-01 NYK 30 39.2 17.7 4.5 3.5 26% 96 43% 50% -0.8 -4.2 48 34 59%
Michael Jordan 2001-02 WAS 38 34.9 22.9 5.7 5.2 36% 99 42% 47% 6.6 3.2 37 45 45%
Glenn Robinson 2002-03 ATL 30 37.6 20.8 6.6 3.0 29% 98 43% 52% 3.9 -1.1 35 47 43%
Jalen Rose 2002-03 CHI 30 40.9 22.1 4.3 4.8 27% 100 41% 51% 3.8 -4.2 30 52 37%
Ricky Davis 2002-03 CLE 23 39.6 20.6 4.9 5.5 27% 98 41% 49% 2.0 -0.8 17 65 21%
Jerry Stackhouse 1999-00 DET 25 38.4 23.6 3.8 4.5 29% 106 43% 55% 1.4 -6.8 42 40 51%
Jerry Stackhouse 2000-01 DET 26 40.2 29.8 3.9 5.1 35% 104 40% 52% 6.6 2.7 32 50 39%
Jerry Stackhouse 2001-02 DET 27 35.3 21.4 4.1 5.3 32% 102 40% 52% -2.5 -2.0 50 32 61%
Jerry Stackhouse 2002-03 WAS 28 39.2 21.5 3.7 4.5 28% 106 41% 53% 0.3 1.3 37 45 45%
Zach Randolph 2005-06 POR 24 34.4 18.0 8.0 1.9 29% 99 44% 48% 3.0 1.5 21 61 26%
Monta Ellis 2009-10 GSW 24 41.4 25.5 4.0 5.3 30% 99 45% 52% -7.6 -11.5 26 56 32%
Andray Blatche 2010-11 WAS 24 33.9 16.8 8.2 2.3 26% 100 45% 50% 1.9 2.6 23 59 28%
Michael Carter-Williams 2013-14 PHI 22 34.5 16.7 6.2 6.3 26% 96 41% 48% 5.8 3.6 19 63 23%
Demarcus Cousins 2013-14 SAC 23 32.4 22.7 11.7 2.9 33% 107 50% 56% 0.9 3.9 28 54 34%
Kobe Bryant 2015-16 LAL 37 28.2 17.6 3.7 2.8 32% 95 36% 47% -0.6 -9.8 17 65 21%
Average 27 36.9 21.2 6.1 4.1 29% 100 42% 50% 2.3 -1.2 31 51 38%

Source: Basketball Reference

And here’s how Trae’s season compared to these “good stats, bad team” players:

Basic Advanced On-Off Delta

Age PPG RPG APG ORtg TS% ORtg Net
"Empty Stats" Avg. 27 21.2 6.1 4.1 100 50% 2.3 -1.2
Trae Young 2019-20 21 29.6 4.3 9.3 114 60% 14.1 7.3

The pushback here might be that most basketball-savvy people never considered any of these players
great, and therefore Trae should be compared to the next tier of players who were universally
considered good but might not be able to be the “best player on a championship team”; players like
Stephon Marbury, Kevin Love, or Kemba Walker.

My counter argument to that is: team construction significantly impacts those “winning player”
narratives and can alter legacies. I’ve already pointed out previously that Trae had an elite season from a
statistical and efficiency standpoint, plus his team was clearly better with him on the court despite his
defensive issues. His numbers would say that he’s a much more effective player than Marbury and
Kemba but other than that, the statistical comparisons become difficult, especially without proper
context. For example, some truly great players like Michael Jordan, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Dirk
Nowitzki, and more recently, Anthony Davis, were doubted for not being able to elevate their teams
despite individual statistical success and accolades. It wasn’t until they were surrounded with the
necessary complementary players and started winning that they were given the “he’s a winner”
distinction.

10
I suspect that Trae’s career will follow a similar trajectory once he’s surrounded with the proper
teammates.

Consider how we might view Steph Curry if he never had the perfect complementary teammates in Klay
Thompson and Draymond Green, and instead was stuck in mediocrity winning 35-48 games in the West
and getting eliminated in the first or second round every year. Would we claim that Steph’s below
average defense is hurting the team despite is offensive assault on the league? Would Steph’s efficiency
even look as great if he were getting double-teamed because Cam Reddish or Deandre Bembry were in
the corner and not Klay Thompson?

That’s a good segue…now let’s look at Trae’s Atlanta Hawks teammates.

11
The 2019-20 Atlanta Hawks and Why Trae’s Presence Didn’t Lead to More Wins

The graphic in the previous section showed that Atlanta was the youngest team in the NBA, with an
average age of 24 years old; but that doesn’t tell the full story because the average age of Atlanta’s
primary starting lineup was 21, three full years younger. Rather than spending hours researching how
this super young lineup compares historically (we can confidently assume it’s one of the youngest ever),
here is an anecdotal example from the 2019-20 season, but one that I think provides helpful context.

Like Atlanta, Memphis also fielded a team with an average age of 24. But unlike Atlanta, the average age
of Memphis’ starting lineup was 24 years old, and included proven veteran players like Jae Crowder,
Jonas Valanciunas, and Kyle Anderson; each of whom have played in meaningful playoff games and on
winning teams throughout their careers.

Atlanta Hawks Memphis Grizzlies

Age Experience GS MP/G Age Experience GS MP/G
Trae Young 21 1 60 35.3 Ja Morant 20 Rookie 67 31.0
Kevin Huerter 21 1 48 31.4 Dillon Brooks 24 2 73 28.9
De'Andre Hunter 22 Rookie 62 32.0 Jae Crowder 29 7 45 29.4
Cam Reddish 20 Rookie 34 26.7 Jaren Jackson 20 1 57 28.5
John Collins 22 2 41 33.2 Jonas Valančiūnas 27 7 70 26.4
Average 21 31.7 Average 24 28.8
Source: Basketball Reference

Starting and closing games is important, and experience matters. Atlanta lacked the experience that
Memphis had, and therefore, it is no surprise that the addition of established veterans to a group of
talented young players resulted in a higher winning percentage for Memphis. For comparison, Atlanta’s
key veterans were a clearly limited 43-year-old Vince Carter and what’s left of Jabari Parker (whenever
he’s healthy enough to even play).

But fielding a young team is not the only reason Atlanta was bad in 2019-20. Maybe it’s due to Atlanta
being a small market with virtually no national TV games, or just that the Hawks were bad, but one of
the most surprising things about the criticism of Trae not leading the Hawks to wins is that those critics
seemed to ignore the amount of time missed by Atlanta’s key rotation players.

Here’s a list of some of the lowlights from this past season:

• John Collins, Atlanta’s second-best player, missed 40% of Atlanta’s games

• Kevin Huerter, a promising 2nd year player, missed 16% of Atlanta’s games
• Alex Len missed 12 games (Len often started while Collins was suspended)
• Jabari Parker missed 20 games
• Trae missed 7 games and left another 2 in the first quarter due to ankle injuries

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I think this tweet from December 4th, 2019 is a perfect example of how some people like to ignore
context or facts to create a narrative.

Source: https://twitter.com/billsimmons/status/1202434216039895040?lang=en

At a high level, the tweet is factually correct. The Hawks did lose by 12 and they were 5-17 at that point
in the season. But the purpose of the tweet is clearly to imply that Trae’s stats aren’t contributing to
winning, and therefore they’re not impressive. But is that a fair criticism?

Well, when looking at the box score from that game a few things stand out that provide important
context:

• John Collins, the Hawks second leading scorer, did not play
• De’Andre Hunter, the Hawks third leading scorer, did not play
• Kevin Huerter, the Hawks 4th leading scorer, scored zero points in 15 minutes in his first game
back after missing the prior 11 games due to an injury
• …and Trae was +1 in >37 minutes despite the Hawks losing the game by 12

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Ok forget this one game…what about the 5-17 record? Is that a fair criticism to discredit Trae’s individual
statistical performance?

Also, no.

Of these 17 losses, which of them should the Hawks have won? Perhaps 5 at most?

• 10/28 vs Philadelphia
• 10/29 vs Miami (second night of a back-to-back)
• 10/31 @ Miami (Trae didn’t play)
• 11/6 vs Chicago (second night of a back-to-back)
• 11/8 vs Sacramento
• 11/10 vs Portland
• 11/14 @ Phoenix
• 11/16 @ LA Clippers
• 11/17 @ LA Lakers (second night of a back-to-back)
• 11/20 vs Milwaukee
• 11/22 @ Detroit
• 11/23 vs Toronto (second night of a back-to-back)
• 11/25 vs Minnesota
• 11/27 @ Milwaukee
• 11/29 @ Indiana
• 11/30 @ Houston (second night of a back-to-back)
• 12/4 vs Brooklyn

Considering John Collins missed all but the first 3 of these games and Kevin Huerter missed 10 of them,
which of these teams was Atlanta actually better than? Is a depleted Hawks team on the second night of
a back-to-back really the favorite against a Chicago Bulls team that fielded a lineup of Zach Lavine, Lauri
Markkanen, Wendell Carter, Otto Porter, Tomas Satoransky, Coby White, Kris Dunn, and Thaddeus
Young?

I think not.

14
Losing John Collins for 25 games due to suspension hurt Atlanta significantly. Collins is a very good
player and put up a stat line of 22 PPG / 10 RPG / 1.6 BPG on 58% FG / 40% 3PT / 80% FT in the 41
games he played in 2019-20. His True Shooting Percentage was a blistering 66%, good for 5th in the
entire NBA and 2nd among all players who attempted at least 3 three pointers per game.

Besides the impressive stat line, Collins is incredibly valuable to a player like Trae for other reasons.

1. Spacing – His 40% three-point percentage and ability to pick and pop opens up space for Trae to
drive and reduces the amount of double-teams Trae faces
2. Pick and Roll – Collins averaged an elite 1.31 points per possession as the roll man in PNRs, the
2nd highest in the NBA among players who had at least 2.5 such possessions per game (Collins
was 3rd in NBA with 5.1 roll man possessions per game). This provides a credible threat that
defenses must respect when he sets a pick for Trae. If you go under the pick, Trae can burn you
from deep. If you go over the pick, a driving Trae and rolling John Collins presents a huge
dilemma defensively for the opposing team

Source: Basketball
Reference

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

15
The importance of John Collins is apparent when looking at Atlanta’s lineup data. In the four most
played 4-man lineups (all including John Collins), Atlanta generated a positive net rating. In the six other
most common 4-man lineups (all without John Collins), Atlanta’s net rating was significantly negative,
even those that included Trae. It’s hard to win games in the NBA when your second-best player misses
significant time, especially when the rest of the team outside of Trae is so inexperienced and unproven.

Despite having such a young team, looking at Atlanta’s 5-man lineup with all their regular starters shows
that having a healthy and complete team makes a huge difference. In 205 cumulative minutes their
primary lineup of Trae, Huerter, Hunter, Reddish and Collins was +5.3 points per 100 possessions
better than their opponent. While this lineup would only rank 23rd out of 39 lineups with over 200
minutes played, it’s still significantly better than the -7.6 net rating Atlanta had for the entire season.

Besides being young and having key players miss games, Atlanta was bad for another reason –
historically poor performance from non-Trae rotation players. Case in point: Cam Reddish.

Here are some Cam Reddish stats in 31 games from October-December in which he averaged 26
minutes per game:

• 8.1 PPG / 3.8 RPG / 1.6 APG / 1.8 Turnovers

• 32% FG / 26% 3PT% / 39% TS% / 77 ORtg / 19% USG%

If you search Basketball Reference for players who played more than 20 MPG, had a Usage Rate greater
than 18%, and who had a True Shooting Percentage below 40%, it returns zero results. So unfortunately
for Cam, this 3-month stretch would have been the absolute worst season in NBA history for someone
with his level of usage.

But it wasn’t just Cam that struggled this season. Trae’s supporting cast (excluding Collins) had the worst
FG% in the NBA at 43.2%, and players not named Trae Young shot a combined 32% from three this
season, also the worst in the NBA.

16
But could this be an indictment on Trae for his inability to get his teammates good looks?

No.

Between facing constant double-teams and his elite passing, Trae is one of the best in the NBA at getting
his teammates better than average shots. In fact, according to Cleaning The Glass, Trae’s presence on
the court results in the single biggest increase in his teams eFG% in the NBA.

No matter how good Trae is at passing, for the Hawks to win games his teammates have to make the
open shots…something that didn’t happen in 2019-20 no matter how open they were.

De’Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, and Kevin Huerter combined for 31 field goal attempts and 15 three-
point attempts per game; they shot a combined 40.2% on those “open” or “wide-open” FGAs, a result
that is far below the league average FG% for all shots (46%), including those that are contested and
tightly contested. On “open” or “wide-open” three-pointers they converted just 37% of their attempts
compared to a league average 3PT% of 36% for all attempts.

Note: “Open” means the closest defender is 4-6 ft away; “Wide-open” means the defender is 6+ ft away

17
The even more startling fact is that, of all the three-pointers Reddish, Hunter, and Huerter attempted,
more than 90% of them were “open” or “wide-open”; and more than half of all their FGAs were “open”
or “wide-open”.

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

To me it seems almost irresponsible to blame Trae for Atlanta’s offensive struggles considering three of
his primary rotation pieces produced below league average efficiency despite the majority of their shot
attempts being high quality open shots.

By this point it should be clear that Trae is an elite offensive player that provides enormous value to his
team while on the court. His stats aren’t “empty” and Atlanta wouldn’t be better with him off the court
no matter how bad his defense is. It should also be clear that his teams’ performance this season is not
something you can blame squarely on him, but rather losing is par for the course for a rebuilding team,
especially one that’s rebuilding through the draft.

This next section is likely to garner some incredulous reactions, but someone has to do it.

18
PART II – LUKA VS TRAE: THEY ARE SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER THAN YOU THINK
I’ve generally found success in life by being contrarian, by avoiding the powerful allure that the madness
of crowds can cause, by remaining intensely objective in the face of extreme resistance, and by
remaining convicted in my beliefs so long as the evidence underpinning them continues to be impartial
and supportive. I believe that to be truly successful you have to think differently and you have to take
advantage of situations where psychology and human nature have caused a significant divergence
between the underlying risks and the potential reward…situations where the expected value is high
because the probabilities are skewed in your favor. But this approach usually only works if you are
patient and willing to appear wrong in the short-term, and not overreactive to the daily noise.

I think these principles apply to achieving long-term, repeatable success in building sports teams as well,
and are particularly applicable to the Luka vs. Trae debate.

Trae hasn’t been given a fair shake from the minute he was drafted. And since then, the polarization of
how people view the Luka vs. Trae debate has only gotten worse.
The mania surrounding Luka Doncic has busted through the stratosphere, eclipsed the speed of light,
and is on its way to engulfing the universe. It’s become hard to put into words how insane the hype
machine around Luka has become lately. The only other things in my lifetime that I can think of that
even compare to the sports world’s growing obsession with Luka over the last 12-18 months are:

• Michael Jordan and the mid-90s Chicago Bulls

• The peak of the “Dot-Com” Bubble in 1999-2001*
• Tiger Woods in the early 2000s
• Lebron in 2002-2004 – “The Chosen One” Sports Illustrated cover hit on February 18th, 2002
• Bitcoin in 2017-2018 – The 11-year-old Crypto CEO: Marketwatch
• Donald Trump, politics, and SPACs in 2020 – Billy Beane? I mean, really?

In just his second season, Luka’s nickname is already “Luka-Legend”, a play on HOFer and 3x league MVP
Larry Bird’s “Larry-Legend” nickname. He’s been compared to Lebron, an all-time great who has had an
unprecedented two-decade stretch of playing basketball at an MVP level, and who will end his career as
the all-time leader in the majority of the most coveted statistical categories. He’s the Vegas favorite for
league MVP in 2020-21. And for kicks, his NBA 2K21 rating is a 94, one notch below 2x MVP and 3x NBA
champion Steph Curry, and 1 point below Kevin Durant, a player many consider to be “the greatest
scorer in NBA history”. That should tell you enough about the current perception Luka.

Source: Bovada

19
But before we dive into the details, I want to be very clear – this is not a Luka hit piece. I am not an
Atlanta Hawks fan and I don’t wish ill of Luka; and like everyone else, I too, think Luka is going to be a
great player in the NBA for a long time. But I also don’t think comparing Luka to Lebron or Larry Bird is
justified, especially since many people took exception to Trae being named a starter in the All-Star
game. Instead, I think the pendulum has swung so far that Luka has become, dare I say, overrated.

So now let’s dive into why I believe that Trae is closer to Luka than everyone thinks.

Luka and Trae were always going to be compared to one another for the rest of their careers thanks to
the draft day trade that sent Luka to the Mavericks in exchange for Trae and a lightly protected first
round pick in the 2019 draft (which ultimately became the 10th pick that the Hawks used on Cam
Reddish). But to understand how this Luka vs. Trae polarization got to this point, we have to start in the
2018 Las Vegas Summer League. First impressions can have lasting impacts, and Trae’s first impression
was particularly damaging for the sentiment around where he stands when compared to Luka.

Luka didn’t play in Summer League as a rookie. For Trae, Summer League could not have been worse.

He airballed his first two shots of his first game.

He got swallowed up on drives to the hoop and turned the ball over.

He started the game shooting 0-10 from the field.

In those few minutes of game 1 of Summer League, the Luka vs. Trae debate was settled. It was more
than enough evidence for the knee-jerk reaction crowd on social media to call Trae a bust.

But it didn’t stop there.

Trae compounded the doubt when he started his rookie season poorly. Here are Trae’s averages for his
first 23 regular season games from October-November of 2018:

PPG APG RPG TO FG% 3PT% FT% TS% ORtg USG%

Trae Young 15.6 7.6 3.0 3.8 37.8% 24.8% 81.6% 47.6% 95.2 28.1%

Pretty bad.

On the contrary, Luka started off well for a rookie. Here are Luka’s averages for his first 35 regular
season games from October-December:

PPG APG RPG TO FG% 3PT% FT% TS% ORtg USG%

Luka Doncic 19.6 5.0 6.5 3.5 43.6% 37.4% 76.2% 56.9% 106.9 27.4%

Luka then capped off his strong start to the season with a torrid 8-game stretch in mid-late December in
which he averaged 26 PPG, 7 APG, and 5 RPG:

By this point everyone had seen enough. Trae was a bust, Luka was a future MVP, and Atlanta had just
cemented themselves in history by making one of the worst draft day trades in NBA history.

20
The Luka-Legend hype train steamrolled unabated through the 2019-20 season with Luka being named a
starter on the Western Conference All-Star team, then being the youngest player ever voted First Team
All-NBA (if the season ended on time), and then finishing 4th in MVP voting. The Mavericks made the
playoffs as the 7th seed, and Luka’s game winning buzzer beater in overtime of game 4 of their first
round series against the #2 seed Los Angeles Clippers caused such an insane reaction on Twitter that it
almost ripped a hole in the universe.

While Luka’s legend grew, the media and fans downplayed Trae’s impressive individual stats, with many
even upset that Trae was starting in the All-Star game while his team had such a bad record. The season
ended for Trae when his Hawks were one of just eight teams that didn’t get invited into the NBA bubble
in Orlando. They finished the season with a 20-47 record, good for 4th worst in the entire NBA.

While the consensus view makes it seem like Luka is on his way to winning 6 MVPs and 6
Championships, and that Trae is destined to be the next Stephon Marbury, a more objective analysis of
the two players illustrates that this conventional wisdom is way off the mark.

In fact, I believe that Trae’s offensive production, on-court contribution to winning, and overall value is
very similar to Luka’s despite the team records and media talking heads telling you otherwise.

As a starting point, here’s a great example of the media’s favoritism when it comes to Luka. While Trae’s
poor start to his rookie season was well documented, nobody seemed to care at all about how much
Luka tailed off at the end of his rookie season. He slogged to the finish line with well below average
efficiency and the Mavs went 7-17 after the All-Star break despite being 4-3 in games Luka missed
(they were 3-14 with him in the lineup).

For context, let’s compare Luka’s final 23 games to Trae’s first 23 games – besides better counting stats
driven primarily by a materially higher Usage Rate, Luka’s efficiency was nearly as bad.

Trae's First 23 Games vs Luka's Last 23 Games of Rookie Season

PPG APG RPG TO FG% 3PT% FT% TS% ORtg USG%
Trae Young 15.6 7.6 3.0 3.8 37.8% 24.8% 81.6% 47.6% 95 28.1%
Luka Doncic 22.9 7.1 9.7 3.9 41.6% 28.3% 68.3% 52.7% 105 34.9%

However, despite this massive drop-off, there were no articles calling Luka a “bust”, no media
proclamations that Trae was better, and no concerns that his hot start was an aberration because the
defense had “figured him out”. Instead, he received 98 out of 100 first place votes for rookie of the year.

21
But while Luka was struggling to end the year, Trae was surging. Not only were his counting stats eye-
popping for a rookie, but his efficiency was approaching elite status by some measures. His 58% TS% and
118 ORtg post All-Star break ranked among the upper echelon of high-volume guards/forwards.

Rookie Season (2018-19): Post All-Star Break

PPG APG RPG TO FG% 3PT% FT% TS% ORtg USG%
Trae Young 24.7 9.2 4.7 3.4 44.2% 34.8% 87.8% 57.6% 118 30.8%
Luka Doncic 22.7 7.2 9.9 4.1 41.7% 26.4% 69.1% 52.3% 104 35.3%

This end of the year explosion by Trae set the stage for what ultimately became an MVP-level
sophomore campaign (statistically speaking).

Taking it a step further, if we exclude the first 35 games of their rookie seasons while they were
adjusting to the league, Trae has outperformed Luka across the board. In their last 100+ games Trae
outpaces Luka in PPG, APG, TS%, and ORtg despite (1) having the exact same Usage Rate (albeit with
slightly higher pace), (2) having inferior teammates, and (3) getting double-teamed far more often.

Since January 2019

PPG APG RPG TO FG% 3PT% FT% TS% ORtg USG% Games
Trae Young 26.3 9.0 4.3 4.3 43.6% 35.8% 85.8% 58.3% 114 32.6% 105
Luka Doncic 23.5 6.8 8.3 3.7 43.7% 32.3% 71.4% 55.4% 109 32.6% 104

If you’re thinking that it’s arbitrary and unfair to exclude Luka’s first 35 games since he performed well
over that stretch, then we can include those as well. But even if we include those games, Trae has still
outperformed Luka…this time despite having a lower Usage Rate.

PPG APG RPG TO FG% 3PT% FT% TS% ORtg USG% Games
Trae Young 26.3 9.0 4.3 4.3 43.6% 35.8% 85.8% 58.3% 114 32.6% 105
Luka Doncic 24.7 7.3 8.5 3.8 44.5% 32.1% 73.7% 56.6% 111 33.6% 133

22
Removing the rookie year stats and isolating the 2019-20 season shows that both players put up equally
impressive counting stats, with Trae arguably edging out Luka in scoring efficiency. But overall, there’s
nothing in this high-level summary that would lead a rational observer to believe that Luka is
significantly better than Trae.

2019-20 Season
PPG APG RPG TO FG% 3PT% FT% TS% ORtg USG% MPG
Trae Young 29.6 9.3 4.3 4.8 43.7% 36.1% 86.0% 59.5% 114 34.9% 35.3
Luka Doncic 28.8 8.8 9.4 4.3 46.3% 31.6% 75.8% 58.5% 116 36.8% 33.6

It’s possible that some people might be thinking: “But what about Luka’s 9.4 rebounds per game and
league leading 17 triple doubles in 2019-20! Doesn’t that mean he’s better and more valuable?”

Well, I’m sorry to inform you that if you hated or discredited Russell Westbrook for his “stat padding”
during his 2016-17 MVP season, then you’re going to have to hate Luka for doing it too.

Of the 34 players in the NBA this season who averaged at least 7 rebounds per game, Luka’s 21.5%
“Contested” Rebound Rate was the lowest of them all. In Westbrook’s 2016-17 MVP season only 22.2%
of his rebounds were contested, still higher than Luka in 2019-20.

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

Maybe it’s just me but I don’t consider 9.4 rebounds per game impressive if nearly 80% of them are
uncontested. That said, there is well-known offensive logic to having your best playmaker grabbing
rebounds and “leading the break” – it’s why OKC allowed Westbrook to do it, it’s why Lebron does it,
and it’s why Dallas is now doing it with Luka while leading the league in offensive efficiency. However,
using “cheap” counting stats in an argument for why one player is better than another should be
separate from the validity of the offensive strategy behind all the uncontested rebounds.
Note: A “Contested” Rebound is a rebound gathered where an opponent is within 3.5 feet

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The most common argument that is used against Trae is team success. Critics often reference the
disparity in team wins this season for the Mavs and Hawks, and have even made up a quantitatively
unsubstantiated theory, dubbed “The Luka Doncic Effect” (or “Luka-effect” for short) to explain why the
Mavs led the NBA in offensive efficiency as well as why all of the Mavs role players had career years in
2019-20.

The truth is Luka does make his teammates better, and the Mavs are better with Luka on the court. But
that’s true for all great players, including Trae. In the prior section specifically focused on Trae I laid out
in detail how the Hawks offense performs significantly better with him on the court, how his gravity on
the court results in tons of open shots for his teammates, and how efficient he is by historical standards,
particularly with his high Usage Rate. But what we care about is this section is how Trae compares to
Luka in terms of elevating his teammates and generating efficient offense.

To gauge how effective each player is at making their teammates better, I looked at each of Luka’s and
Trae’s key role players, and what percent of their shot attempts were “open” or “wide-open”. The logic
is as follows: a great player should attract more defensive attention and that in turn leads to more open
shot attempts for their teammates. What matters is both the percent of their teammates FGAs that are
open, as well as the raw number of open looks being generated per game.

The data appears to show that teammates of Luka and Trae are seeing a similar percent of open shots,
as well as a similar number of absolute attempts per game. Mavs role players see a higher percentage of
open looks overall, but the Hawks appear slightly better at generating open three-point shots.

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

24
 Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

Note (1): “Luka’s Key Role Players” include Kristaps Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Seth Curry,
and Delon Wright.
Note (2): “Trae’s Key Role Players” include John Collins, De’Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, and Kevin Huerter.
Note (3): “Luka’s Top 3 Role Players ex-Kristaps Porzingis” include Dorian Finney-Smith, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Maxi Kleber
(determined based on most overlapping minutes on the court).
Note (4): “Trae’s Top 3 Role Player ex-John Collins” include De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, and Cam Reddish (determined based
on most overlapping minutes on the court).

The NBA is a make or miss league and one of the core differences between the Mavs offense and the
Hawks offense is exactly that…the Mavs role players converted more of their open shots into points.

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

25
Luka supporters will also point to fact that the 2019-20 Dallas Mavericks had the most efficient offense
of all-time based on points scored per 100 possessions. This is an indisputable fact and a testament to
how good Luka is given he was the driver of that offense with his league-leading 36.8% Usage Rate. But
it wasn’t just Luka…far from it actually.

In fact, Dallas’ bench was record breaking and often blew other teams off the court thanks to a
combination of precision passing, timely cutting, elite shooting, and low turnovers. In 1,600 minutes
with Luka off the court, Dallas scored 115 points per 100 possessions; that level of scoring efficiency
would have led the NBA in 2019-20 and ranked as the 11th best offense of all-time. (Note that Luka was
on the court for 2,050 minutes).

Source: Basketball Reference

Dallas’ role players and bench unit were similarly effective in the playoffs, albeit in limited minutes. With
Luka off the court Dallas scored 117.5 points per 100 possessions compared to 111.8 with him on the
court.

Trae didn’t have that luxury. With Trae on the court the Hawks were above average. But with him off
the court the Hawks were an unmitigated disaster, scoring a pathetic 98.5 points per 100 possessions.
As mentioned in the prior section, that level of offensive misery is worse than the 2015-16 76ers that
ran out a team of D-leaguers and won just 10 games. As a standalone offense, the Hawks without Trae
would rank in the bottom 5% of all offenses since 1973-74.

26
Looking deeper at on-off court differentials for Trae and Luka show an intriguing story – the Hawks are
significantly better with Trae on the court while the Mavs are only slight better with Luka.

• Atlanta was +11.8 points per 100 possessions better with Trae on the court (+14.1 per BKREF)
• Dallas was +3.1 points per 100 possessions better with Luka on the court (+3.7 per BKREF)
• Atlanta’s eFG% increased by +6.4% with Trae on the court vs +2.7% for the Mavs with Luka

Source: Cleaning The Glass

Source: Cleaning The Glass

However, as noted in the prior section, because Dallas’ performance with Luka off the floor was so
extraordinary, his on-off court differentials are somewhat misleading and require context.

But here’s an interesting exercise. Atlanta won 30% of their games in 2019-20, which implies a full year
total of 24-25 wins in a normal 82 game season. If we take the estimated +17 wins that Trae added this
season and subtract it from Atlanta’s 24-25 expected wins, it implies a record of 7-75, which would be
the worst in NBA history. That 10-win 76ers team from 2015-16 had both a better offense (98.8 ORtg vs
98.5) and defense (109.2 DRtg vs 111.3) than Atlanta without Trae on the court so those 7 expected
wins isn’t all that unlikely.

With what this data is telling us, can we really blame Trae for how few wins Atlanta had this season?

So the question then becomes, what’s more impressive: (1) Trae single-handedly taking one of the worst
offenses ever with him off it and elevating it to better than league average in an era where all teams are
hyper focused on maximizing offensive efficiency, or (2) Luka taking an already historically great offense
with him off it and somehow making it even better.

I don’t think there is a right answer.

27
Another common critique against Trae and his impressive individual statistics is that most of his stats
came in “garbage time” or in meaningless games. While it’s no secret that the Hawks were bad this
season, a realist would acknowledge that in the NBA no team is really ever “out of it”, particularly in this
era due to the proliferation of three-point shots and the focus on drawing fouls (which allows teams to
shoot free throws with the clock stopped).

But luckily there is data available on “Clutch” situations that allows us to drill down and see how each
player performed when the games were close. Like I’ve already pointed out in numerous instances up to
this point, this data also seems to tell a different story than what the media and fans are.

Not only has Trae played in a similar number of “Clutch” minutes as Luka, but he also significantly
outperformed Luka in these clutch situations. But in this case, significantly outperforming Luka isn’t
really saying much considering how terrible he performed in clutch situations. Luka’s 36% FG%, 17%
3PT%, 65% FT%, and 15 turnovers in the clutch all rank among the worst in the entire NBA. In the 2019-
20 NBA season, 169 players played at least 50 “Clutch” minutes (<5 minutes remaining, score within 5
points) – here is how Luka ranks among them:

• FG%: 116th
• 3PT%: 130th
• FT%: 145th
• Turnovers Per Minute: 163rd
"Clutch" Performance in 2019-20 Player Zone Comparison in 20
5 Minutes Remaining, Game within 5 Points or Less
Luka Trae
"Clutch" Minutes Played 128 116
Points Scored 87 125
FG% 36% 39%
3PT % 17% 34%
FT% 65% 80%
Turnovers 15 13
Assists 29 14

3 Minutes Remaining, Game within 3 Points or Less

Luka Trae
"Clutch" Minutes Played 51 46
Points Scored 32 50
FG% 31% 38%
3PT % 9% 21%
FT% 55% 78%
Turnovers 3 3
Assists 11 6

1 Minute Remaining, Game within 3 Points or Less

Luka Trae
"Clutch" Minutes Played 19 18
Points Scored 14 19
FG% 26% 33%
3PT % 8% 17%
FT% 38% 77%
Turnovers 2 1
Assists 3 3
Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

28
Now let’s take a break from the statistical comparisons and discuss a nuance that is very overlooked in
the Luka vs Trae debate: situation. Situation is a qualitative point, but one that is incredibly important
within the context of evaluating team success and player development. As it relates to Luka vs. Trae, I
believe situation has positively impacted the perception of Luka more than people appreciate.

Let’s start at the very top with an organizational comparison. The Mavericks are a model franchise with
a culture built upon consistency and patience; those principles have resulted in lots of winning over the
last 20 years. The complete opposite is true for the Hawks. Here’s why.

Ownership: Mark Cuban, the owner of the Dallas Mavericks, is widely regarded as the best owner in the
NBA, and is often times referred to as “the best owner in all of sports”. Only 6 owners have owned their
team longer than Cuban has owned the Mavs.

Meanwhile, the Hawks were sold in 2015.

From the time Cuban purchased the Mavs in 2000 they have won 60% of their games, the 2nd best mark
in the NBA behind only the San Antonio Spurs. They have had only 2 losing seasons in 20 years.

Meanwhile, Atlanta has the 7th worst record since 2000, winning 38 games per season on average.

General Manager: Donnie Nelson’s 18 years as GM of the Mavs are the most in the NBA by at least 5
years. Atlanta’s current GM, Travis Schlenk, was hired in 2016.

Assistant GM: Dallas’ Assistant GM Keith Grant has been in his role for 21 seasons. Atlanta’s assistant
GM is Landry Fields and was hired in September 2020.

Coaching: The Mavericks head coach, Rick Carlisle, is entering his 13th consecutive season with the team,
the 2nd longest mark in the NBA. Lloyd Pierce has two total years of head coaching experience.

Like Cuban, Carlisle is highly regarded and is routinely ranked as a top 3-5 coach in the NBA. He has the
16th most coaching wins ever and a career winning percentage of 55%.

Lloyd Pierce had zero minutes of NBA coaching experience prior to Trae’s rookie season.

Why does this matter? Well, as we’ve seen time and time again in the NBA, consistency and chemistry
matter much more than people think. Just ask the San Antonio Spurs or the 2019-20 Toronto Raptors.

Luka was drafted into a dream situation for a rookie. Trae was drafted into one of the worst.
Organizational Comparison
Ownership Dallas Hawks
Majority Owner Mark Cuban Tony Ressler
Year of Purchase 2000 2015
Years Under Current Ownership 20 5
Winning % Since 2000 60% - 2nd Best 45% - 7th Worst

Front Office & Coaching

Source: Real GM
General Manager Donnie Nelson Travis Schlenk
Years in Role 18 4

Assistant General Manager Keith Grant Landry Fields

Years in Role 21 0

Head Coach Rick Carlisle Lloyd Pierce

Years in Role 12 2

29
Besides a superior organizational situation, Luka was given a better team to work with than Trae was. In
just his 2nd season, the Mavs got Luka a 24-year old All-Star running mate in Kristaps Porzingis. Besides
the “unicorn” talent level, Porzingis is the perfect fit with Luka as a stretch big that spaces the floor and
creates driving lanes. And he plays defense. The Mavs also surrounded their two young stars with gritty
hustle guys and sharp shooters like Dorian Finney-Smith and Seth Curry, and with veteran starters like
Tim Hardaway Jr. While not a sexy list of names, this kind of combination leads to wins.

On the contrary, Trae’s best teammate was suspended for 25 games and he was part of a starting lineup
that often featured two rookies, 2nd year player Kevin Huerter, and a guy you’ve probably never heard of
named Damian Jones. His most proven veteran teammate was 43-year old Vince Carter.

Not exactly a situation conducive to winning.

Coaching and schemes also matter. Rick Carlisle built a motion offense with lots of spacing and cutting
around Luka which caters to his strengths as a driver and passer. Dallas’ gritty veterans and Porzingis’
interior defense also made up for Luka’s slow feet and loose effort on defense.

Conversely, Lloyd Pierce surrounded Trae with questionable shooters, other poor defenders, and failed
to take advantage of Trae’s league leading 65% corner three-point percentage…one of the most valuable
shots in basketball. (Trae made 65% of his 20 corner three-point attempts in 2019-20. For comparison,
Steph Curry shot 48% on 120 corner threes in his 2015-16 MVP season).

It’s also not fair to blame Lloyd Pierce either because he was just playing the hand he was dealt. You
can’t start better shooters or play veterans if you don’t have any. And you definitely can’t take Trae off
the ball if you don’t have anybody else that can dribble or run an offense effectively.

In fact, Trae’s been criticized by members of the media for monopolizing his teams’ possessions and for
“dribbling the air out of the ball” while his teammates have to “stand and watch”. While it’s a fact that
Trae did lead the NBA in average time of possession per game, and did rank 2nd in average seconds per
touch, he’s anything but an outlier. The criticism is even more ironic considering the infatuation with
Luka despite him ranking 2nd in the NBA in both time of possession and touches per game.

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

30
Looking at historical data for time of possession shows an obvious trend – great guards and forwards like
Trae, Luka, Lebron, James Harden, Chris Paul, Steph Curry, etc who initiate offense tend to be near the
very top of the rankings. This is an obvious conclusion but one that is even more drastic when the
teammates surrounding a great player are below average ballhandlers or offense initiators.

But there are some people out there who believe that Luka’s time of possession is different, or more
valuable, than Trae’s because Luka is moving the ball faster and more often rather than dribbling around
in isolation. In theory this could be true but it’s also highly dependent on coaching, offensive schemes,
and the other players on the team.

For example, in 2013-14 Steph Curry was 2nd in the NBA in average seconds per touch at 5.6 (among
players who played 30 minutes per game). This was Mark Jackson’s final season with Golden State.

In 2014-2015, the very next season and first one under new coach Steve Kerr, Curry ranked 23rd in the
NBA in average seconds per touch. His 4.2 seconds per touch declined -25% from the prior season as
Kerr implemented a motion offense with spacing and utilized Curry off-ball more to unlock his prolific
catch and shoot ability. Notably, as a result of being moved off-ball, Steph’s corner three-point attempts
increased from 79 in 2013-14 to 120 in 2015-16, a 52% increase. Curry went on to win the first of his two
MVPs this season.

There’s no credible reason why this strategy can’t be deployed in Atlanta with Trae Young going
forward. But there is a reason it didn’t work this past season: Atlanta had no other playmakers on
offense, and players not named Trae Young turned the ball over at an alarming rate. Taking the ball out
of Trae’s hands was offensive suicide as evidenced by their league worst 98.5 ORtg without him on the
court.

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But when Trae did have the ball, good things happened. In fact, good things happened more often for
Trae than they did for Luka. In terms of efficiency per touch, Trae swept Luka across the board, edging
him out in (1) Points Per Touch, (2) Assists + Secondary “Hockey” Assists, (3) Potential Assists, (4) Assist
Points Created, and (5) Total Offense Created…all despite having a lower Usage Rate, inferior
teammates, an inexperienced coach, and while facing more double teams.

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

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By this point I’ve pretty much debunked the conventional wisdom that Luka is far more valuable than
Trae on offense, or that Trae’s stats are “empty” because his team doesn’t win. The truth is that they are
incredibly close in almost every aspect, and that Trae actually screens more valuable in certain respects.

But I thought it could be instructive to finish with an overview of how Luka and Trae compare in terms of
skill. Although admittedly hard to assess on a statistical basis, skill can be partially measured by looking
at how each player scores in different situations (transition, isolation, pick and roll, spot up shooting),
and on different spots of the floor (in the restricted area, in the paint, from mid-range, from three).

The results are quite interesting – Trae is noticeably better than Luka in transition (likely due to elite FT
shooting) and as a spot up shooter, while Luka is only marginally better than Trae in isolation and in pick
and roll. While both players are in the upper echelon at scoring in isolation and in pick and roll, only Trae
screens as elite in spot up shooting; Trae ranks as the 3rd most efficient spot up shooter in the NBA while
Luka is ranked 141st. Both are in the top 40 at scoring in transition.

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

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 Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

Besides points per possession, Trae also compares favorably vs Luka from almost every spot on the floor
apart from the restricted area. The important distinction here is that while Luka outperforms Trae in the
restricted area, Trae is still good at finishing when he gets in the paint (as evidenced by his 58.5% FG%).
Plus, his 86% free throw percentage is a huge advantage over Luka’s 76% given the frequency of fouls on
shots in the paint. Luka, on the other hand, produces below average efficiency on FGAs from
everywhere else, and is particularly bad outside of 10 feet.
Player Zone Comparison in 2019-20
FG% By Distance FG% By Area FG% By Type of Shot
Luka Trae Luka Trae Luka Trae
<5 Feet 69.0% 57.3% Restricted Area 72.6% 58.5% FG% on Drives 56.2% 50.4%
5-9 Feet 41.5% 43.4% Paint (Non-RA) 41.4% 45.0% TO% on Drives 6.4% 7.8%
10-14 Feet 40.0% 45.1% Mid-Range 35.1% 44.0%
15-19 Feet 33.3% 50.0% Left Corner 3 27.3% 66.7%
20-24 Feet 34.3% 42.6% Right Corner 3 NA 60.0% FG% on Catch and Shoot 27.8% 46.7%
25-29 Feet 31.5% 35.1% Above the Break 3 32.4% 35.1% FG% on Pull-ups 33.6% 38.4%
Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

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PART III – DEFENSE
This section is relatively short since both players are poor defenders, and since defense is harder to
measure statistically. That said, despite both players having clear deficiencies on this end of the court
(Trae being small; Luka having slow feet/lateral movement; both lacking effort), it’s only Trae that gets
vilified. One can only imagine what people would say if Trae did something like this at such a crucial
point in a meaningful playoff game.

You’ll often hear hyperboles like “Trae is the worst defender in the NBA” or “Trae is possibly the worst
defender ever” when people describe Trae’s defense. Neither of those claims is true.

Trae’s Defensive Rating, a measure of how many points are allowed by a player per 100 possessions,
was 117 in 2019-20. It ranks as the 26th worst rating since 1978-79. That sounds worse than it actually is
because offenses have gotten more efficient over time as teams have realized the relative value of three
pointers and free throws over long twos and mid-range shots. In fact, despite ranking 26th worst all-time,
Trae’s Defensive Rating was actually better than or the same as 11 other players in 2019-20:

• Darius Garland (119), Bryn Forbes (118), CJ McCollum (118), Colin Sexton (118), Bradley Beal
(117), De’Andre Hunter (117), Damian Lillard (117), Cedi Osman (117), Eric Paschall (117), Ish
Smith (117), and Tony Snell (117)

And 11 more players posted a Defensive Rating of at least 115 in 2019-2020.

To more accurately assess how Trae’s defense stacks up historically, we can look at the Defensive Rating
for other players in NBA history and compare it to the league average Offensive Rating in that season.
This will provide a standardized measure of how each player performed defensively compared to the
time in which they played.

On this measure, Trae’s 2019-20 season would rank in the 77th percentile among the 1,000 players with
the worst Defensive Ratings. His defense is bad but it’s certainly not the worst in NBA history.

Source: Basketball Reference

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And here is a snapshot of some other players with particularly poor defensive seasons compared to
Trae’s 2019-20 season. Of note is the inclusion of Damian Lillard in 2019-20 and the recurring presence
of 2-time NBA MVP Steve Nash.

Defensive Rating Compared to League Average Offensive Rating: A Snapshot

Player League Avg. Delta Percentile
Player Season Team DRTG ORTG vs. Avg. Rank
Ray Allen 2005-06 SEA 116 106 9.8 99%
Steve Nash 2003-04 DAL 111 103 8.1 95%
Devin Booker 2018-19 PHO 118 110 7.6 92%
Steve Nash 2001-02 DAL 112 105 7.5 91%
CJ McCollum 2019-20 POR 118 111 7.4 90%
Devin Booker 2016-17 PHO 116 109 7.2 88%
Steve Nash 1999-00 DAL 111 104 6.9 86%
Damian Lillard 2019-20 POR 117 111 6.4 77%
Trae Young 2019-20 ATL 117 111 6.4 77%
Devin Booker 2017-18 PHO 115 109 6.4 77%
Steve Nash 2009-10 PHO 114 108 6.4 77%
Damian Lillard 2012-13 POR 112 106 6.2 75%
Devin Booker 2015-16 PHO 112 106 5.6 67%
Mike Conley 2007-08 MEM 113 108 5.5 65%
Steve Nash 2012-13 LAL 111 106 5.2 57%
Kobe Bryant 2004-05 LAL 111 106 4.9 53%
Steve Nash 2004-05 PHO 111 106 4.9 53%
Reggie Miller 1989-90 IND 113 108 4.9 53%
Stephen Curry 2010-11 GSW 112 107 4.7 48%
Derrick Rose 2008-09 CHI 113 108 4.7 48%
Source: Basketball Reference

Trae has said that he prefers to compare himself to Nash instead of Steph Curry offensively, but
defensively they are similar too. The difference between Trae and Nash is that Nash is universally
perceived as one of the best players ever despite his defensive woes while Trae is considered “hard to
build around” by some in the media because of his shortcomings on defense. For what it’s worth, Nash
registered three seasons in his career that were worse than Trae this year and one that was similar.

It’s obviously not a praise-worthy accomplishment for Trae to not be the worst defender ever, so let’s
see how Trae actually ranked this season on a variety of defensive metrics.

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Since Defensive Rating (DRtg) is somewhat dependent on lineups and teammates, to evaluate a player’s
individual effectiveness on defense we can look at a number of other available metrics, starting with
Defended Field Goal Percentage (DFG%).

Defended Field Goal Percentage is the percentage that opposing players shoot while within three feet of
the defending player. Trae’s DFG% was 48.3%, 54th worst in the NBA among players who appeared in at
least 50 games.

Not terrible.

But in absolute this metric doesn’t have much meaning. To really understand how effective Trae is at
defending we have to compare his DFG% to the average FG% of players that he defends. On this metric,
Trae ranks worse; he allows opponents to shoot 3.8% better than normal which is 29th worst in the NBA.

Bad, but still not the worst in the NBA.

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

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If you dig deeper you’ll see that the bulk of Trae’s defensive issues come in one area: the restricted area.
Good defense involves not only holding your opponent to a lower than average shooting percentage,
but it also requires you to keep the opponent from getting high expected value shots, particularly in the
paint. Unfortunately for Trae, he was the worst in the league at keeping opponents out of the paint, and
once they got there, opponents shot 66% against him.

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

The good news for Atlanta is you can build a good defense around defensively challenged guards as long
as you have capable wings and/or a bonafide rim protector. Phoenix did it with Steve Nash, Golden State
did it with Steph Curry, Houston did it with James Harden, and Boston did it with Isaiah Thomas. Heck,
even Dallas did it with Dirk (though he’s not a guard). It’s arguably easier to do this in the current era
since there are no dominant post players to take advantage of smaller guards during switches.

But while the criticisms regarding Trae’s defense are brought up ad nauseum, you’ll often hear
absolutely nothing about Luka’s defensive woes. Yet he isn’t any good on that end of the floor either.

In fact, although Luka was better than Trae at keeping opponents out of the paint (only 36th worst in the
NBA), he didn’t have much success once they got there. Opponents shot 63% against Luka in the paint.

What might surprise some people is that Luka and Trae are actually very similar when it comes to their
defensive abilities. What Luka makes up for in size, he gives away in speed and lateral quickness. Below
is a comparison of Opponents Field Goal Percentage for Luka and Trae. With the exception of Luka
limiting the number of attempts that opponents get in the restricted area compared to Trae, they’re
pretty comparable across the board in both the absolute number of attempts and percentages.

Opponent FG% by Zone

RESTRICTED AREA IN THE PAINT (NON-RA) MID-RANGE 3-POINT

PLAYER FGM FGA FG% FGM FGA FG% FGM FGA FG% FGM FGA FG%
Trae Young 16.3 24.6 66.2 4.6 10.9 42.4 3.6 8.4 42.7 8.4 23.7 35.4
Luka Doncic 12.9 20.3 63.4 4.2 10.3 40.6 3.9 9.3 42.3 8.5 24.1 35.3
Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

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But as mentioned previously, the more accurate comparison is to look at their Defended FG% relative to
their opponents average FG%. On this measure, Luka compares more favorably than Trae does, but he’s
still nowhere close to being considered good.

Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

Source: Source: NBA.com/Stats, Second Spectrum, and Synergy

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CONCLUSION
The purpose of this paper was never to suggest that Trae is better than Luka, or that Luka isn’t a great
player; but rather to prove beyond any reasonable doubt that Trae is much closer to Luka than anyone,
or any media narrative will lead you to believe. But no matter how many statistics or how much “proof”
you throw at someone, there will always be rebuttals based on qualitative things like the “eye-test”. On
one hand I agree; Luka’s size and strength advantage is enormously helpful in the playoffs when
physicality is ratcheted up a notch, and his height enables him to see or pass over defenses better than
Trae can. On the other hand, the eye-test can lead to very false conclusions – many people see
highlights of Luka’s flashy step-back threes but likely don’t realize that he is a poor three-point shooter
overall (31.6% on the season). Alternatively, Trae’s elite shooting and ability to create space with a tight
handle can be equally as valuable in the playoffs when defenses tighten up.

But even I know that in the end, assuming all else is equal (or close to equal), it’s always safer to go with
the taller, more physical imposing player. In this case that’s obviously Luka.

But evaluating the Luka vs Trae trade after just two seasons, and using arguments like team wins, is
incredibly flawed. Context always matters, and in the Luka vs Trae debate it’s particularly important in
understanding the full story. Atlanta traded Luka on draft day because their team had numerous holes
to fill and because they believed that receiving Trae plus the probability of a high draft pick in the
relatively strong 2019 draft provided a faster way to rebuild the team. While I still think it’s far too early
to judge the merits of that decision, it’s hard to understand how anyone can logically disagree with it at
this point given 1) how well Trae has performed despite the dysfunction around him, and 2) that Atlanta
is not a free agent destination so accumulating draft capital is imperative to a successful rebuild.

In fact, I wonder what the perception of the trade would be if Atlanta had instead chosen Tyler Herro
with the 10th pick (he fell to Miami at 13). Would Trae and Herro, an eastern conference equivalent of
the Splash Brothers, for Luka still be viewed as “one of the worst trades in history”? Probably not.

Ultimately, the pick that Dallas conveyed to Atlanta ended up being 10th overall and the Hawks took Cam
Reddish. The jury is still out on Cam, but after initially looking like a potential bust, he improved
massively as the season went on and appears to be developing into a much-needed defensive player
next to Trae. If Cam evolves into an All-Star caliber two-way player, is the trade still viewed as a failure?
Afterall, Cam was the consensus 3rd ranked prospect coming out of high school behind Zion and RJ
Barrett.

Point is, things tend to look much clearer in hindsight than they do in the moment.

Luka isn’t Lebron and he won’t ever be. Lebron has always been an elite two-way player, something
Luka likely can’t be due to physical limitations. And Trae isn’t Steph Curry. Curry is the greatest shooter
ever, with unrivaled efficiency on absurd volume.

But if Lebron and Curry were traded for each other on draft night, and everything that has happened
over the course of their careers played out exactly the same way as it did, I don’t think either team
would regret their decision.

In the end, I think the Luka vs Trae debate will follow a similar trajectory.

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ADDENDUM
It’s crazy to see just how far we’ve come from takes like this regarding Trae. My only caution is to not let
your love of Luka keep you from appreciating Trae; just like Kobe fans with Lebron for so many years.

Source: https://twitter.com/billsimmons/status/947212157661224960?lang=en

1999-2001 Dot Com Bubble*

Coincidently enough, this is the period when Mavs owner Mark Cuban took advantage of the frenzy and
sold his business, Broadcast.com, to Yahoo for $5.7 Billion. A deal that has come to be known by some
as “one of the worst internet acquisitions of all time”

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