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1
SARAH LYON-CALLO,
PH.D., MS
Director, Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health
Michigan Department of Health
and Human Services
2 2
Executive summary
CDC COVID Data Tracker indicates that Michigan has recorded the 6th highest number of cases (↔) , 5th highest
number of deaths (↑2), 20th highest case rate (↔), and 10th highest death rate (↑7) in the last 7 days
According to Becker’s Hospital Review, Michigan has the 10th highest hospitalization rate as a percent of total beds
(↑3), and 6th highest number of COVID patients in the ICU (↔)
Case rates (512.9), percent positivity (12.5%), and coronavirus like illness (CLI) are all increasing for seven or more
weeks
Case rates are growing exponentially throughout the state of Michigan and all MERC regions are at or above 350 cases
per million
More than 15% of available inpatient beds are filled with COVID patients and state trends for hospitalizations for
COVID continue to increase exponentially for the previous 5 weeks
There were 298 deaths (↑146) during the week of Nov 1-Nov 7 and the state death rate is 5.2 deaths per million
people
Daily diagnostic testing (PCR) averaged 53.5K per day over the last week and daily the state rate is 6,005.3
tests/million people
3
Comparison across states: Summary
What we see today:
• 50 states seeing increasing 2-week case trends (up from 47 last week)
• 43 states (stable vs. 44) with significant outbreaks (high/increasing cases, increasing/high
positivity increasing/high hospitalizations over 2 weeks (>100 per M))
• South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Montana have highest per capita
hospitalized patient numbers
• Most rapid 2-week case growth: VT, LA, NH, MN, ME, OK
• Midwest:
– Wisconsin with continued rising hospitalizations (390/M), cases (1150/M)
– Indiana now exceeding Wisconsin in hospitalizations (410/M), cases (~900/M) – exceeded spring peak
– Illinois shows rapid growth in hospitalizations (440/M) and cases (>950/M)– exceeded spring peak
– Ohio with growing hospitalizations (290/M) and cases (600/M), positivity – far above spring levels
– Michigan with rapid rise in hospitalizations (315/M) and cases (>600/M) - 75% of spring peak
4
Risk levels
Confirmed and probable case indicators Low A B C D E
Table Date: 2020-11-11, 7 days from date table was produced (2020-11-7)
Cases Positivity
5
1. Epidemic curve classification based on two-week incidence slope. Data omits most recent week to account for lag period.
COVID-19 Spread
Number of outbreaks continue to rise, particularly in long-term care facilities, schools and sports, in-person workplace, and
restaurants/bars
`
Week ending 11/7/2020 (Michigan average uses most recent MAG data and includes all tests, including MDOC and “Region Unknown”)
SOURCE: Numerical Data – MDSS, COVID Tracking Project, U.S. Census Bureau.
<3% average positivity per day
Positivity by county, 11/8-11/14 3-7% average positivity per day
9
Note: Cases information sourced from MDHHS and reflects date of onset of symptoms (refers to confirmed and probable cases)
Source: SEOC Testing Results
Confirmed COVID-19 cases by report date: State of Michigan
Number of cases
9,000
8,516 7 day rolling average
8,000
6,940 7,072
7,000
6,381 In the last week,
6,000 47,771 cases reported
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/2 11/9 11/16
3,000
100,000
2,000
50,000
1,000
0 0
3/8
4/5
5/3
8/9
9/6
3/8
4/5
5/3
8/9
9/6
2/23
3/22
4/19
5/17
5/31
6/14
6/28
7/12
7/26
8/23
9/20
10/4
11/1
2/23
3/22
4/19
5/17
5/31
6/14
6/28
7/12
7/26
8/23
9/20
10/4
11/1
10/18
11/15
10/18
11/15
Cumulative confirmed and probable deaths, New confirmed and probable deaths, by Updates since last week:
9,000 by reported date 180 reported date
8,000 160
Current deaths are a lagging
7,000 140
indicator of cases and are
6,000 120
continuing to climb.
5,000 100 The current number of deaths
4,000 80 is over 4x the amount of
3,000 60 deaths in October
2,000 40
1,000 20
0 0
3/8
4/5
5/3
8/9
9/6
3/8
4/5
5/3
8/9
9/6
2/23
3/22
4/19
5/17
5/31
6/14
6/28
7/12
7/26
8/23
9/20
10/4
11/1
2/23
3/22
4/19
5/17
5/31
6/14
6/28
7/12
7/26
8/23
9/20
10/4
11/1
10/18
11/15
10/18
11/15
11
Note: Cases information sourced from MDHHS and reflects date of onset of symptoms (refers to lab-confirmed cases). Case spike on 5/12 is a result of batch of test results, not all of which have onset date of symptoms completed
Source: MDHHS – Michigan Disease Surveillance System
Insufficient sample size; county has fewer than 3 new cases during the week
Average daily new confirmed and probable Fewer than 7 average daily new cases per million
7-20 average daily new cases per million
cases per million residents 20-40 average daily new cases per million
40-70 average daily new cases per million
70-150 average daily new cases per million
150 average daily new cases per million
Note: Cases information sourced from MDHHS and reflects date of onset of symptoms (refers to confirmed and probable cases) 12
Note: Data as of 11/11/2020
Source: MDHHS – Michigan Disease Surveillance System
Pre-decisional, for discussion only
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
3/15
3/22
3/29
4/12
4/19
4/26
5/10
5/17
5/24
5/31
6/14
6/21
6/28
7/12
7/19
7/26
8/16
8/23
8/30
9/13
9/20
9/27
10/4
11/1
11/8
10/11
11/15
10/18
10/25
3/1
3/8
4/5
5/3
6/7
7/5
8/2
8/9
9/6
30-49 age group continues to have the highest cases per million, though cases per million have increased for
all age groups
13
Note: Cases information sourced from MDHHS and reflects date of onset of symptoms
Source: MDHHS – Michigan Disease Surveillance System
Cases data as reported 11/14
Average daily new cases per million people by race and ethnicity
Daily new confirmed and probable cases per million (7 day Past two weeks confirmed and probable cases vs.
rolling average) population, % of total
By race category American Indian/Alaska Native Black/African American
By race category % of cases past two weeks % of population
Asian/Pacific Islander White
400 87.7%
300 80.4%
200 15.0%
100 9.7%
3.6%
0.9% 0.9% 1.7%
0
4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1
American Asian/Pacific Islander Black/African White
Indian/Alaska Native American
300 6.6%
5.3%
200
100
0
4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 Hispanic or Latino Not Hispanic or Latino
Note: Cases information sourced from MDHHS and reflects date of onset of symptoms; note that Multiple Races, Other, and Unknown race/ethnicity are not included in calculations
NOTE: Many factors, including the lack of ability to conduct effective contact tracing in certain settings, may result in significant underreporting of outbreaks. This chart does not provide a complete picture of
outbreaks in Michigan and the absence of identified outbreaks in a particular setting in no way provides evidence that, in fact, that setting is not having outbreaks. 15
Source: LHD Weekly Sitreps
K-12 school outbreaks, recent and ongoing, week ending November 13
Many factors, including the lack of ability to conduct effective contact tracing in certain settings, may result in significant underreporting of outbreaks. This chart does not provide a complete picture
of outbreaks in Michigan and the absence of identified outbreaks in a particular setting in no way provides evidence that, in fact, that setting is not having outbreaks.
Source: LHD Weekly Sitreps 16
Cases data as reported 11/14
Daily new confirmed and probable deaths per million Total new confirmed and probable deaths by age
by age group (7 day rolling average) group (past 30 days, ending 11/12)
0-19 40-49 70-79
20-29 50-59 80+ 508
30-39 60-69
70
NOTE: Past 1 week of deaths
65 likely to increase due to reporting
60 delays
55
50
45
278
40
35
30
25
20 130
15
10 59
5 19
0 7 7
0
07/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Note: Cases information sourced from MDHHS and reflects date of report
Average daily new deaths per million people by race and ethnicity
Daily new confirmed and probable deaths per million (7 day Past two weeks confirmed and probable deaths vs.
rolling average) population, % of total
By race category American Indian/Alaska Native Black/African American By race category % of deaths past two weeks % of population
Asian/Pacific Islander White
7 90.9%
6
80.4%
5
4
15.0%
3
2 7.0%
1.5% 3.6%
0.6% 0.9%
1
0 American Asian/Pacific Islander Black/African White
6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 Indian/Alaska Native American
1.5 5.3%
4.1%
1.0
0.5
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COVID-19 and Healthcare Capacity
Since September, COVID-19-like illness has gone from < 2% to > 7% of the emergency department visits
Five of eight regions are over 30% of Adult ICU beds occupied with COVID+ patients
Michigan Trends in Emergency Department Visits for COVID-19-Like
Illness (CLI)
Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#ed-visits
20
Statewide Hospitalization Trends: Total COVID+ Census
This week, hospital COVID+ census is 33%
Hospitalization Trends 7/1/2020 – 11/15/2020 higher than last week.
Confirmed Positive
We are now at ~75% of our spring peak
levels, though now these hospitalizations
are spread across the regions.
PUI
21
Statewide Hospitalization Trends: ICU COVID+ Census
COVID+ census in ICUs increased by 30% this week
Hospitalization Trends 8/1/2020 – 11/15/2020 Doubling time is 2.5 to 3 weeks
Confirmed Positive in ICUs
Statewide 27% of Adult ICU beds are occupied with
COVID+ patients
22
Statewide Hospitalization Trends: Regional COVID+ Census
Hospitalization Trends 8/1/2020 – 11/15/2020 Regions 2N, 3, and 7 show the most rapid
Confirmed Positive by Region growth rate for the week of 11/8-11/15
Region 2N
Region 2N, 3, 6 are the most pressured on a
per population basis
Region 2S
Region 6
Region 3 Region Growth from COVID+
Last Week Hospitalizations /
MM
Region 1 28% 206/MM
Region 5 Region 2N 46% 352/MM
Region 1 Region 2S 26% 255/MM
Region 3 44% 431/MM
Region 7
Region 8 Region 5 15% 255/MM
Region 6 25% 365/MM
Region 7 49% 208/MM
Region 8 35% 260/MM
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How is public health capacity?
Case investigation and contact tracing is becoming overwhelmed with the influx of new cases and contacts and is at or
near all-time lows
• MDHHS recently released phone proximity notification app to aid in contact tracing
New Case Investigation Metrics
Case investigation metrics remain low since last week:
• 44% of investigated cases have a known source (47% last week)
• 28% of investigated cases noting that they were quarantining before symptoms (28% last week)
Over the last week, number of complete case investigations increased 29%, number of cases has increased 59%
Yes No Not answered
Case report form information, 11/7-11/13 Case report form information, 10/31-11/6
39,199
24,613
30,093
17,549
9,106 9,106
7,064 7,064
21% 14%
16% 11%
9,106 35% 58% 7,064 38% 61%
(23%) 44% (29%)
28% 47% 28%
Case investigation Known source Already Case investigation Known source Already
complete? of infection? quarantining at complete? of infection? quarantining at
time of symptom time of symptom
onset? onset? 25
Source: MDHHS – Michigan Disease Surveillance System
Testing, case investigation, and contact tracing: Current state
Ongoing contact
Case investigation and contact Initial contact monitoring still
Testing occurring through
acquisition tracing
texting and calls
Goal 2K tests 3% test Fast test to 90% calls 75% calls 50% with 90% calls 75% calls
per million positivity, result attempted in completed contacts attempted completed
per day excluding turnaround one day in one day in one day in one day in one day
MDOC time6
Performance 6.0K 12.5% 2.7 days 18.3%1 14.1%2 14.1%3 91.4%4 45.6%5
Trend since Favorable Unfavorable Stable Unfavorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Favorable Favorable
last week
5,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
06/07
06/14
06/21
06/28
07/05
07/12
07/19
07/26
08/02
08/09
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/04
10/18
10/25
10/11
11/01
11/08
11/15
27
Note: Cases visualized by onset date; Absolute number of case investigations estimated from daily case investigation success rate
Source: MDHHS – Michigan Disease Surveillance System
Iphone or Android
The pandemic has affected many public health services not directly related to COVID-19
• Childhood preventative services like lead testing and vaccinations have fallen but are rebounding
90
80
70
vaccination coverage
Percent Vaccinated
60 American Indian
50 Asian/Pacific Islander
for Blood Lead
40 Black
White
30
Other
20
Missing/Unknown
Includes 4 DTaP, 3 Polio, 1 MMR, 3 Hib, 3 HepB, 1 Varicella, 4 PCV
10
0
Access to Emergent Care
33