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INDIVIDUAL WORK

UNITS 1, 2 AND 3: PRE-TASK - PRE-KNOWLEDGE OF THE COURSE

PRESENTED BY

WILSON SEPULVEDA CARVAJALINO CODE: 1.065.888.806

DELIVERED TO

RICARDO JAVIER PINEDA

GROUP: 212066_29

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OPEN AND DISTANCE (UNAD)

UNAD -CEAD VALLEDUPAR
THEORY OF DESITIONS
FEBRUARY OF 2020
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INTRODUCTION

The challenges become attractive according to the difficulty and

demand that the process has to reach some goal or purpose, that is
why, through the development of this phase of the course of decision
theory, it comes with a degree of difficulty due to the management of
the platform in another language different from the Spanish language,
such as English, in such a way that it requires each student to be
recursive and use innovative strategies that allow him to decipher each
of the tasks to be developed, which becomes in a practice that
strengthens the bilingual abilities of each student.
On the other hand, what is most important and interest of the cuso,
are the units and deployment that the course brings, which focuses on
the need that each student has to learn to manage a series of tools
that favor an indispensable study in the form of to face the decisions
under risk or uncertainty, in such a way that each person has the
capacity and suitability to handle any scenario according to the
intellectual capacities in which it has been formed.
It is so interesting and attractive to be able to develop these activities
in a committed and orderly manner, knowing that the knowledge
acquired is an optimal benefit for my professional development, where
the best benefit is for me and the society that can serve from my
functionality.
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-Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event:

To develop the tasks it is necessary to consult the bibliographical

references:
Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications.
(pp. 347-360), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition.
Available in the knowledge environment of the course.
In a bag there are 10 balls numbered from 11 to 20, some red and
others green.
Consider, then, a sample space that has 10 elements:
E = {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}
With the above data, answer:
a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of
getting a prime number?
b) How many balls are there in each color?

Solution
The probability of drawing a prime number between the 10 balls is
4/10 which simplified is 2/5. There are 6 green balls and 4 red balls

Probability:

Probability = Number of favorable events / Number of possible events

We complete the statement:

a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of

getting a prime number?

Number of favorable cases = 4 are the prime numbers within the

possible outcomes (The numbers 11, 13, 17 and 19 are prime)

Number of possible cases. = 10 (All numbers from 11 to 20)

P = 4/10 = 2/8

The probability of drawing a prime number between the 10 balls is

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4/10 which simplified is 2/5

b) It is known that the probability of drawing a green ball is 3/5 How

many balls of each color are there?

The number of possible cases, that is, the number of balls that can
come out, remains 10.

The number of favorable cases, that is, the number of green balls (our
event) is one of the things we want to calculate.

3/5 = 6/10

In total there are 6 green balls in the bag. So we can deduce that the
rest, 4, are red balls.

There are 6 green balls and 4 red balls.

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-Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and
solution that satisfies the following systems of equations:

1. Y = -4X + 6
2. Y = -2X + 1

For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That

is, replacing in each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes
the value of zero to graph its lines.

Solution
1. Now what we do is replace in each equation, like this:
y=−4 x +6
Now we replace according to the values given to x, in this case I gave
the values 0, 1 and 2, and replacement giving me the following result:
y=−4 ( 0 )+ 6=6
y=−4 ( 1 ) +6=2
y=−4 ( 2 ) +6=−2

X 0 1 2
Y 6 2 -2

1. y=2 x +1
2. Now we replace according to the values I give to x, in this case I
gave the values 0, 1 and 2, and replacement giving me the
following result:
3. y=2 ( 0 )+1=1
4. y=2 ( 1 ) +1=3
5. y=2 ( 2 ) +1=5

X 0 1 2
Y 1 3 5 6
5
4
213 1
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-Exercise 3. Matrix operations:

The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that
the matrix multiplication is very important to solve this type of
problems. Given the following matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m)
solve the product of them.
0.3 0.4 0.3
1. A= [0.1 0.5 0.4] B= 0.5 0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4

0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2

2. A= 0.1 0.5 0.4 B= 0.1 0.2 0.7
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
In the previous exercises, solve the matrix operation (A * B)

Solution
0.3 0.4 0.3
1. A= [ 0.1 0,5 0,4 ]
[
B= 0.5 0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4 ]
Now what we do is multiply the first and only row of the first matrix,
for each of the columns of the second matrix, remaining, and each
product is added to the other product, thus being:

( 0.1 ) ( 0.3 ) + ( 0.5 ) ( 0.5 ) + ( 0.4 )( 0.3 ) =

= 0.03+0.25+ 0.16=0.4

Now we continue multiplying the single row of the first matrix with the
second column of the second matrix, thus:

( 0.1 ) ( 0.4 ) + ( 0.5 )( 0.3 )+ ( 0.4 ) ( 0.3 ) =

= 0.04+ 0.15+0.12=0.31

Now we do the same but with the third column of the second matrix, being like this:
( 0.1 ) ( 0.3 ) + ( 0.5 ) ( 0.2 ) + ( 0.4 )( 0.4 ) =
= 0.03+0.1+ 0.16=0.29
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Now we have the solution matrix, which are the results of the three
operations, thus:

(0.4 0.310.29)

0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2

[
2. A= 0.1 0.5 0 ⋅ 4
0.6 0.3 0.1 ] [
B= 0.1 0.2 0 ⋅7
0.2 0.3 0.5 ]
As it is a matrix (3 * 3), * another matrix (3 * 3), then we multiply
each element of each of the rows of the first matrix, * each element of
each of the columns of the second matrix, thus being:
C 11=( 0.5 )( 0.3 ) + ( 0.2 )( 0.1 ) + ( 0.3 ) ( 0.2 )=¿
= 0.15 + 0.02 + 0.06=0.23

C 12=( 0.5 ) ( 0.5 )+ ( 0.2 )( 0.2 )+ ( 0.3 )( 0.3 )=¿

= 0.25 + 0.04 + 0.09=0.38

C 13=( 0.5 ) ( 0.2 )+ ( 0.2 )( 0.7 )+ ( 0.3 ) ( 0.5 )=¿

= 0.1 + 0.14 + 0.15=0.39

C 21=( 0.1 )( 0.3 )+ ( 0.5 )( 0.1 )+ ( 0.4 ) ( 0.2 )=¿

= 0.01 + 0.04 + 0.08=0.16

C 22=( 0.1 )( 0.5 )+ ( 0.5 )( 0.2 )+ ( 0.4 ) ( 0.3 )=¿

= 0.05 + 0.1 + 0.12=0.27

C 23=( 0.1 )( 0.2 )+ ( 0.5 )( 0.7 ) + ( 0.4 ) ( 0.5 ) =¿

= 0.02 + 0.35 + 0.2=0.57

C 31=( 0.6 ) ( 0.3 ) + ( 0.3 ) ( 0.1 ) + ( 0.1 )( 0.2 )=¿

= 0.18 + 0.03 + 0.02=0.23

C 32=( 0.6 ) ( 0.5 ) + ( 0.3 ) ( 0.2 ) + ( 0.1 )( 0.3 )=¿

= 0.3 + 0.06 + 0.03=0.39

C 33=( 0.6 ) ( 0.2 ) + ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 ) + ( 0.1 ) ( 0.5 )=¿

= 0.12 + 0.21 + 0.05=0.39

Then the solution matrix looks like this:

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0.23 0.38 0.39

[
A*B= 0.16 0.27 0 ⋅57
0.23 0.39 0.38 ]
CONCLUSIONS

With the development of the activity, I hope to have started a course

where expectations are continuous, it has been rewarding to perform
one by one the required points for this first part of the course, which I
consider of high importance for the fulfillment of the objectives and
goals set in search of training as a professional in order to be able to
accurately contribute to the needs and expectations of a society and to
be at the forefront of global progress, which will undoubtedly make the
countries are in continuous compliance with the sustainable
development goals worldwide.

Likewise, encourage my teammates, so that in an orderly manner we

can use communication lasos so that we can meet with an enjoyable
training and complying with the principles of collaborative work offered
by the University.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ACCORDING TO APA STANDARDS

Sanderson, C. (2006). Analytical Models for Decision Making. New

York, USA: McGraw-Hill Education Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=234098&lang=es&site=eds-live

Gilboa, I. (2001). A Theory of Case-Based Decisions. Camdridge, UK:

Cambridge University Press Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=72982&lang=es&site=eds-live

.
Rokach, L. (2008). Data Mining With Decision Trees: Theory And
Applications, Bern, Switzerland: H. Bunke, University Bern,
Switzerland. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=236037&lang=es&site=eds-live

Aven, T. (2008). Risk Analysis: The Risk Analysis

Process: Chichester, UK: john wiley & sons editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?
url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=323407&lang=es&site=ehost-live