Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

U.S. Policies in the Indo-Pacific
After the Election
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 29, 2020

We request your insights into the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Q1. In your opinion, if Joe Biden wins or President Donald Trump gets re-elected,
how will U.S. policies for the Indo-Pacific region change?
ANSWER: If Joe Biden is elected president, his Administration generally will follow the
strategies outlined in the U.S. National Security Strategy (2017), National Defence
Strategy of the United States (2018) and the Indo-Pacific Strategy approved by the
Trump Administration. These strategies were the product of a whole-of-government
inter-agency process involving national security and defence professionals. They
identified China and Russia as competitors.
Under Trump these national policies were subject to his intervention and were often
implemented without coordination. In other words, U.S. foreign policy under Trump
followed the president’s whims and prejudices.
The Biden Administration will follow U.S. law and review each of these policies and
present them to Congress. Biden’s secretaries of state and defence, and his national
security advisor, will implement these policies. There will be regular meetings of the
National Security Council to coordinate policy implementation.
If Donald Trump is re-elected U.S. policy towards the Indo-Pacific will be erratic and
transactional.
Q2. Do you think that U.S. - China tension will de-escalate after the election?
ANSWER: There is bipartisan support in the United States by both political parties in
the Congress to view China and Russia as the main threats to the United States. Thus,
we can expect continued tensions over Taiwan and in the South China Sea regardless
of who is president.
Xi Jin-ping is likely to try to reset relations with a Biden Administration. This could lead
to a temporary reduction in tensions as both sides size each other up. But the U.S. will
continue to confront China in the South China Sea and support Taiwan.
Trump will be emboldened by his re-election and will continue to press China for trade
concessions. If Pompeo remains Secretary of State, he will continue to press his anti-
Communist Party of China crusade. And Defence Secretary Esper will continue to
confront China militarily in the South China Sea. Members of the Quad will come under
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U.S. pressure to push back against China. The second Trump Administration will put
pressure on regional states to take sides.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “U.S. Policies in the Indo-Pacific After the
Election” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 29, 2020. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.