Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41872-019-00074-3

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

y
1 2
Swati Sachan · Chengke Zhou

Received: 15 June 2018 / Accepted: 15 February 2019 / Published online:

13 March 2019 © The Author(s) 2019

Abstract

1  Introduction

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 118\ Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127
INPUT DATA:

1.) Age of cable

2.) Age dependent failure probability
3.) Length of maintenance period
Algorithm Part 1: Estimation of future state

Method: Find the effect of maintenance on cables

Output: Future state for each stage
Future state as an input in Algorithm 2

INPUT DATA:

1.) Future states

2.) State transition probability
3.) Maintenance cost

Algorithm Part 2: Determination of optimal maintenance policy

Method: Solve recursive equation by backward induction
Output: Optimal maintenance decision for each stage (each year) of maintenance period

2 Proposed methodology
f

3  Probabilistic dynamic programming

algorithm

3.1  PART 1: estimation of future state of the cable

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Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127\ 119

y
(ay� ) (Fa� ) CM
y {0, … , Y}
y
y {0,…,Y −1}
y = Y RP (a�

(F �
) )
aY y
y=Y

f
i i
0 1

y=0 y=Y
y

y
y
ay Fa y
F a y
ay

States of the cable ∶ a� ,F� .

y ay

(F ) Y (F � )
� AY AY

(AY) Y {0,…,Y −1} �

(AY )
{0,…,Y}
Y=Y

NA, PM, RP CM RP
( )
.

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\120 Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127

a < a.

a� = a
F(a) = P(y ≤ a),
y a
a>a
a� = a

a=a+1

a=a+1

3.2  Part 2: determination of optimal

maintenance policy
z z {0,…,ℤ}
PMz% y

ℤ ( ) y
pa � = p(a) 1 − PMz% , y+1
z=1
a {0, … , A} a0, … , A� = {NA, PM, CM,RP}

y+1 y
y=0
a y = 0,

A <A
y=0
A� =A
A >A
y

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Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127\ 121

̄
F F

y
ay

.
ay
ay�+1 = ay� + 1
F�
a y+1
a �

NA ̄ � � � � y
�
∶
F
NA ∶ PF
a
� y�+1

�
a �y�, NA = P a y�+1 , NA�

� � �� �
� �

∶ P ay+1 ay , NA = 1 − P ay+1 a ,NA ,

FNA
y
� �
P a y+1 a y, NA �
1 − P a y+1 a y, NA �

ay�+1 = 1 �
ay NA � �

̄
� �
�
F ∶P F
RP ∶ RP ay
�
+1 ay�, RP ≈ 0.01 �
� � �
� �

ay PM% a , RP = 1 − P F
∶P a , RP ≈ 0.99.
y+1 FRP 1 y ay+1 y

F
̄ �� ��
� ay
̄
F
F
PM F ∶P F � ay� , PM = P(U_DET) + P(DET) ⋅ P(USF)
PM ay +1
∶
� �
⋅

∶ P ay+1 ay , PM = P(DE) P(SF).

�

FPM

RP y
F
y+1 CM

y
F F � , CM = 1 − P a� F �,CM
�
�
∶P F�

CM a y
y+1 ay ay
y ̄
�
�

�
CM ∶

� � �
y+1
�
�

F ∶P a F
a y�
, CM = P ay Fay� , CM .
CM y+1

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\122 Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127

(y)
F
̄
F
(y + 1)
= {NA, PM, RP, and CM}.

km (CPM)

(CRP) C = C .
PM m=1 m

Cm
C =C +C l. m m = 1 to
RP cable inst
C km C
cable inst
km

l km

C∕kW
PM
CM
(CF) (CRE )
CM

CF = d + b tr L . C =C l+C .
RECM f _det AR
∈H
C km
f _det
l km C
d AR
C
($∕kW) b RE PM

(CRE )
CM

($∕kWh) tr
L
.
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Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127\ 123

Objective

0<y<Y

Y
C +C +C +C +C . .
Total cost = y=0
RP F PM RECM REPM

(PM)
(RP)
(CM)
Current cost = immediate cost + future cost.

for y = 0 to Y − 1

̄ V a� +F V F�
NA: F
̄ � �
y+1 � �
�

= min
a
NA y+1 NA y+1 y+1
�

̄ a
�
+F V F
Vy a PM: C
PM
+C
REPM
+F V
PM y+1 y+1 PM y+1 ay�+1 ,
F
� �

� �
RP: CRP + FRPVy+1(1) + FRPVy+1 ay+1

y=Y

y Vy ̄
�

V (F) = min CM: C + C a +F V F �.

y F RECM
+F V

CM y+1 y CM y+1 a y+1

y + 1 Vy+1
y=Y a F 4 Numerical example
� �
a =A
(RP) y=Y

(a� = A� ) (F)
for y = Y
� � NA: 0

V a� = min PM: CPM + CRE = 0,

y RP: CRP PM

A�

VY = min(RP: CRP) = CRP,

VY (F) = min(RP: CF + CRP) = CF + CRP.

(a�
F) y = 0 to Y − 1
(NA)

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124\ Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127
, y=0
a = a = 33

U _
(stage ∶ y = 0 to 14) ̄ FPM= ̄ ×

FPM= FPM=
(stage ∶y = 0 to 39). FPM= + ×
PM RP

y=1 y=8
a RP y = 18
y = 0 to 39
PM
y = 14(2030)
y=Y y=0

y = 18
y

y = 14
18

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Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127\ 125

kWh
(L ) kW
=6000 kW h×34
365 days×24 h
( Tr )
(D ) kW
(B ) $∕kWh
(CF)

M (CM)

(C )
RCM
(C )
RPM

C_
C_
C_

Appendix A: Algorithm

A1: Data structures

(y) (a� )F
Vector ST
y= Y.
y =
ST0
. Y=0
Y=0 Matrix Ryy
y

5 Conclusion

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\126 Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127

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Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering (2019) 8:117–127\ 127

y=
a� = a

y=Y
y = Y − 1, y=Y−2

References

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