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Vol.3, Issue 12 (December 2016) ISSN: 2393-851X Impact Factor: 0.612 ISI Indexed
Md. Qamruzzaman
School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology
WEI Jianguo
Professor, School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology
ABSTRACT
Purpose: This study is to assess financial distress of Grameen Bank in Bangladesh who
is pioneer in the development of micro finance institutions
Methodology: Study use four well know financial distress predication models Altman z score,
Zmijewski X-score, Springate S-score and Grover G-score for each year financial stability
prediction from 2005 to 2014.
Findings: study results revealed that Grameen bank is passing with bankruptcy situation, which
is supported by Altman Z-score, Zmijewski X-score, Springate S-score three prediction models.
Only G-score model provides conflicting prediction.
Research Limitation: This study only use four bankruptcy prediction models for more
precision need to apply other econometric models.
INTRODUCTION
The concept of microfinance was introduced in Bangladesh with the efforts made by Prof
MohdYunus, and followed by it many developing countries have adopted microfinance. Over a
period of time with the progress in the sector, many MFIs were evolved and were successful in
alleviating poverty by providing financial services to poor, vulnerable and women which led to
their uplift men and empowerment.
In general, Microfinance institutions (MFIs) emphasis on providing credit to the poor who have
no access to commercial banks, in order to reduce poverty and to help the poor with setting up
their own income generating businesses. Often it is found that MFIs are loss making, i.e they are
not financially sustainable. Yet, in many cases, MFIs succeed in lending to domestic small
companies and poor agents because Western donors and NGOs provide financial support by
offering them loans at below-market interest rates. Recently, however, there seems to be a shift
from subsidizing MFIs institutions to a focus on financial sustainability and efficiency of these
institutions. Among other things, this increased focus on financial sustainability and efficiency is
due to a number of developments the microfinance business has been recently confronted with,
such as the increasing competition among MFIs, the commercialization of microfinance (i.e. the
interest of commercial banks and investors to finance MFIs), technological change that also has
become available for, and implemented in microfinance, and financial liberalization and
regulation policies of the government. These developments have induced microfinance
institutions to change their behavior and to broaden their services and activities.
With the emergence of MicrofinanceInstitutions, researchers show their interest in the evaluation
of performance in diversified ways. No of researchers put their concentration on assessing
operational performance on the basis of financial information of MFIs. E.g.,Ejigu, (2009) assess
MFIs performance in Ethiopia using financial ratios. Tahrim &Tahir, (2013)assess operational
efficiency of MIFs in ASEAN by proposing two frameworks for measurement.
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Vol.3, Issue 12 (December 2016) ISSN: 2393-851X Impact Factor: 0.612 ISI Indexed
Saravani, (2015) assess technical efficiency level of MFIs in India using DEA and study revealed
that only a few microfinance institutions performing efficiently and significant institutions
require improving their level of efficiency by using their resources properly.
Ferdousi, (2013) assess performance efficiency of MFIs of three Asian countries and the study
revealed that MFIs in Bangladesh performing more efficiently than other countries.
Guitierrez-Nieto et al., (2006) used DEA for efficiency analysis of 30 MFIs in Latin America.
The result of the study shows that an NGO and an NBFI were found to be the most efficient
among different legal forms of MFIs.
Bassem, (2006) in his study on efficiency analysis of 35 MFIs in Mediterranean zone using DEA
came out with the result that only 8 out of 35 sample MFIs were efficient and also the size is
found to have a negative impact on efficiency.
Hassan and Sanchez (2009)in their study on efficiency analysis of MFIs in 3 regions viz Latin
American countries, Middle East, North African & South Asian countries using DEA found that
banks and credit unions were better than non-formal MFIs. The inefficiency of MFIs was
observed in 3 regions which aremainly due to pure technical efficiency. The South Asian MFIs
are found to have better technical efficiency when compared to Latin American and MENA
region MFIs.
Haq et al (2009)used DEA based production and intermediation approaches for efficiency
analysis of 39 MFIs in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Under production approach, NGO MFIs
were found to be efficient while bank-MFIs were found to be efficient under intermediation
approach.
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Vol.3, Issue 12 (December 2016) ISSN: 2393-851X Impact Factor: 0.612 ISI Indexed
Bereket Zerai(2012) carried out a study on 19 MFIs in Ethiopia during 2005-2009 using DEA
and SFA. The study reveals that the sample MFIs are found to have scale inefficiency. Also
under two approaches it was observed that size, sustainability, and age (experience)are found to
have a significant impact on efficiency. Also by applying Malmquist total factor productivity
index, they found that the sample MFIs have experienced a decline in total factor productivity
due to technical efficiency change and also observed that the entire industry has exhibited a
decline in technological change which implies that there has been deterioration in the best-
practicing MFIs.
With the growth of MFIs and their contribution towards economic growth. Especialattention also
given to MFIs by thegovernment, policymakers as well as aninternaltional organization because
micro finance institutions contribute only for economic development but also social
development.
Considering all the emerging facts, now the pop up question is to what extend Micro Finance
institutions (MFIs) are financially sustainable and through this research we try to assess financial
distress of Grameen Bank in Bangladesh which is the biggest microfinance institution
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performing as alternative sources of means to small business enterprises those have limited
access to formal financial institutions especially private commercial banks It is also found that
few researchers try to evaluate theperformance of Grameen bank like as actor of poverty
alleviator (Siwar & Bhuiyan, 2012) considering Grameen Bank contribution towards income
generation.
GB was created as traditional financial institutions for providing financial assistance to the
helpless and hopeless hardcore poor without physical collateral security. The birth history of
Grameen (Grameen means ‘rural’ or ‘village’ in Bangla language) came about when a young
economist Dr. Muhammed Yunus, returned with a Ph.D. from the USA to Chittagong University
in Bangladesh to help build his newly created country. He grew frustrated with abstract theory as
he watched people starve during the famine of 1974 (Shreiner, 1999). In his quest to find a way
to help them, he met a bamboo weaver who wanted less than $1. From his own pocket, the
professor lend $0.64 to the weaver. Then after in 1976, Professor Muhammad Yunus, Head of
the Rural Economics Program at the University of Chittagong, launched an action research
project in the village of Jobra, adjacent to Chittagong University, to examine the possibility of
designing a credit delivery system to provide banking services targeted at the rural poor.
The action research demonstrated its strength in Job and some of the neighboring villages during
1976–1979. He found that the poor, as well as the lower income group, are facing major problem
related to accessibility to credit. Their lack of assets for collateral, lack of financial records and
limited credit history has made it almost impossible for them to obtain credit from the formal
financial institutions. Due to lack of capital, the poor are tied to low productivity, usually in self-
employed economic activities. Thus, providing the poor with credit will generally help to solve
the problem of the poor. In this regards, microcredit program is generally perceived as one of the
practical and attractive means for providing accessibility of the poor to credit, and hence
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reducing poverty and achieving development objectives. In 1983, it was transformed into a
formal bank under a special law passed for its creation by Bangladesh Bank.
The Bank continues to grow at an admirable pace in 2014 when we added one more branch to its
network. The Bank’s 2,568 branches now serve over 81,000 villages constituting close to 97% of
the country’s landscape. Following our success to spread the branch network almost throughout
the country we have now shifted the gears from horizontal expansion to strengthening the
existing outlets to serve the Bank’s borrowers speedily and efficiently. Grameen Bank’s major
area of activities, namely credit operation, continued to flourish and reached new heights with
every passing year. During the year, the Bank disbursed loans and advances totaling BDT 133.32
billion (USD 1.71 billion) under different categories reflecting an increase of 14% over the
amount disbursed in 2013. The cumulative amount of disbursement since the inception of the
Bank snowballed to a staggering BDT 1,080.96 billion (USD 16.37 billion) by the end of 2014.
(Grameen Bank, 2014)
GB carried its mission of empowering the poor to anew level by introducing an innovative
program addressed to the most vulnerable group in the social structure—the beggars. Under the
scheme, known as ‘Struggling Members Program’, interest-free loans amounting to BDT 173.68
million (USD 2.57 million) have so far been provided to 109,000 borrowers. It would certainly
sound ironical that in a country where nonperforming loans in the mainstream financial sector
pose a constant threat to the economy, the beggars repaid 84% of their loans in 2014. It is also
reassuring that 16,329 beggars have left begging and are making a living mainly as peddlers.
9,029 beggars have joined Grameen Bank groups as mainstream borrowers. Apart from that
Grameen Bank taking several social development initiativeslike supporting vocational training
courses by establishing educational institutions across the country
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A. Altman Z-Score
The Altman Z-Score is an empirical model that predicts the probability of corporate bankruptcy.
This article introduces this valuable predictor of financial distress and offers a calculation
spreadsheet.The Altman Z-Score was published in 1968 by Edward Altman and measures a
company’s financial health.
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B. Springate Model
Springate model was the first model to be introducedby Gordon LV Springate (1978).
Basically,this model is a revolution of the Altman model developedby Multiple Discriminant
Analysis (MDA).Springate model development process initiallyused 19 financial ratios that have
been frequentlyused. However, after testing, Springate finallychose four financial ratios to be
used to determinewhether the company is said to be either a healthycompany or potentially
insolvent. Springate is also a model that can be used asan early warning system of bankruptcy.
C. Model Zmijewski
Zmijewski, ME, (1984) used financial ratio analysis that measures the performance of debt or
leverage and liquidity of a company. In his analysis, Zmijewski used probity analysis as applied
to 40 companies in a state of bankruptcy and 800 companies that are still operating at the time,
and then develop a model by using ROA, leverage, and liquidity ratios.
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D. Grover Model
Grover Model is a model created by restoration or redesigns of the model of the Altman Z-Score.
It takes X1 and X3 of the Altman model and then adds profitability ratios which are indicated by
ROA.
This model according toPrihanthini& Sari (2013) said that this model has very high accuracy
80% compared to the Springate Model, Zmijewski Model and models of Altman Z-Score to
measure of bankruptcy in an ad Food Beverage company in Indonesia Stock Exchange
Data used for this study is purely secondary taken from a financial statement from 2005 to 2014.
We consider research period from 2005 due to having positive income and onwards. Descriptive
statistics is basically used to explain the characteristics of both dependent and independent
research variables so that users can easily obtain an overview of a characteristic of data.
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Above table -1; depicts the mean score of research independent variables in different bankruptcy
prediction models used in this study.
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The skewness value of the models of Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover respectively is -
0.8082, -2.8569, 0.2149, and -0.5726 (see Table 2). The skewness is positive; showing the top of
the data distribution skewness overhung the positive values (the cure tail of the right side is
longer). While the negative skewness indicates theend of data distribution skewness overhung
the negative. Kurtosis is a tool to show the fineness of a distribution of data. It shows the form of
distribution; tapered (leptokurtic), blunt (mesokurtic), and very blunt (platykurtic). The finer the
distribution of data indicates that the data are increasingly collected or concentrated at one
particular point (homogeneous) and conversely the blunter the most widespread distribution of
data which means heterogeneous. Kurtosis < 3 is platykurtic, = 3 is mesokurtic, and > 3 is
leptokurtic. Kurtosis value for the models of Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover
respectively are 1.2263, 2.6809, 1.0632, and 1.6052.
Based on the kurtosis value of each model, it can be concluded that the shape of the data
distribution is quite blunt- platykurtic or because of the value of kurtosis < 3. Therefore, the data
were heterogeneous or spreading. A standard deviation is a tool used to determine the rate of
spread of the distribution of the data. The smaller the standard deviation is, the data will be even
better. The standard deviation values of the models for Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and
Grover respectively are 0.0770, 1.5017, 0.0654 and 0.0949. The standard deviation of Zmijewski
model is higher than the other models.
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Correlation established the directional relationship among research variables. It is obvious from
correlation matrix (see table – 3) that all the variables are positive, related meaning that one
variable increases or decreases has thesame impact on themodel outcome, except net profit,
current liabilities and total liabilities show to some extent negative rotations.
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It is clearly manifested that three out of four applied models of assessing financial distress of
Grameen Bank indicated that institution is passing with severe financial instability as per Altman
z-score, Zmijewski (X-score), & Springate (S-score) models (see table 4) but model proposed by
Grover (G-score) which is created by performing redesign and reassessment of the Altman Z-
Score models gives different distress prediction. Prihanthini& Sari (2013) said that G-score
model has very high accuracy 80% compared to the Springate Model, Zmijewski Model and
models of Altman Z-Score to the measure of bankruptcy.
Although maximum predicting models indicate that GB is running with the possibility of
bankruptcy, so management of this institution needs to focus on increasing managerial efficiency
level as well as operational efficiency. Most important to go for comprehensive research to
identify responsible factors because GB has adirect contribution to the socio-economic
development process in Bangladesh
FINDING
In this paper, we apply four different bankruptcy predicting models to assess financial distress of
Grameen bank in Bangladesh in the year 2005 to 2014. So as to predict thefinancial stability of
Grameen Bank we used four well-known financial distress prediction models like AltmanZ-
score, Zmijewski X-score, Springate S-score&Grover G-score those are empirically tested over
the period. Study results revealed mixed prediction of financial distress, 3 out of 4 applied
models ensure bankruptcy for Grameen bank in Bangladesh over research period, only G-score
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model produce conflicting prediction for Grameen Bank. With the consideration of significant
models out, it is postulated that financial performance of Grameen Bank is undergoing to
become unfavorable and it is high time to put immense focus for enhancing financial
performance by ensuring optimal utilization of existing resources.
The limitation of this study is to use only four models while predicting financial distress, in order
to reach more obvious and concrete prediction need to go comprehensive application prediction
models. But the research outcome has implication in that sense to consider as anearly warning
for future severe consequence and management need to take preventive measures.
REFERENCES
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10. Kutum, D. I. (2015). Predicting the Financial Distress of Non-Banking Companies Listed
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12. Rani, B. Z. (2012). Technical Efficiency And Its Determinants Of Micro Finance
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14. Siwar, A. B. (2012). Grameen microcredit and poverty alleviation: a review of Grameen
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