10/24/20

Global Threats and

Challenges in the
21st Century
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Keynote Presentation
Political-Security Stream
UNSW ASEAN Conference
Sydney, October 24, 2020

Outline

1. Prospects for ASEAN Centrality : US-China

Rivalry and COVID-19 Pandemic
2. Cyber Security Risks in Southeast Asia:
ASEAN’s Roles
3. People, Power and Politics: The Rise of
Authoritarianism and State-Society Relations
4. Conclusion

1
 10/24/20

1. Prospects for ASEAN Centrality

ASEAN: Major Powers and

COVID-19 Pandemic

My Argument
• ASEAN Centrality extends beyond Southeast Asia to the
security architecture of East Asia, Asia-Pacific and the Indo-
Pacific
• ASEAN Centrality is shaped by individual and collective
leadership by Southeast Asian states
• ASEAN Centrality is shaped by ASEAN unity and cohesion
• ASEAN Centrality also is shaped by interactions with the
major powers

2
 10/24/20

My Argument
• ASEAN Centrality shaped by the norms of the ‘ASEAN Way’
• Dialogue and consultation not confrontation
• Consensus decision-making, informal and personal
• Inclusivity
• At a pace comfortable to all
• Non-interference
• ASEAN Centrality is not a binary concept but extends across a
spectrum and varies with the issue(s) concerned
• ASEAN Centrality is a continual work in progress

ASEAN Centrality
Bangkok Declaration 1967

Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality 1971

Institutionalisation – 1st ASEAN Summit 1976

Declaration of ASEAN Concord I, Bali, 1976

ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation 1976

3
 10/24/20

ASEAN Centrality
Membership expansion – Brunei 1984 and Vietnam 1995

Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon Free Zone Treaty 1995

Membership – Laos & Myanmar (1997), Cambodia (1999)

Declaration of ASEAN Concord II, 2003 ASEAN Community

Political-Security, Economic, Socio-Cultural Pillars

ASEAN
Regional
ASEAN-led
Mechanisms
Forum 1994

ASEAN ASEAN Plus

Maritime Three
Forum 2010 1997

ASEAN
Defence
Ministers'
Meeting 2006

4
 10/24/20

East Asia
Summit 2005 ASEAN-Plus
Mechanisms
ASEAN
ASEAN + 1 Defence
(Dialogue Ministers'
Partners) Meeting Plus
2010

Expanded
ASEAN
Maritime
Forum
2012

ASEAN Centrality

ASEAN Charter 2007 – legal identity

Institutionalization 2 AMMs & 2 Summits, 2009-2020

ASEAN's Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea 2012

ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific 2019

ASEAN Community-Building Blueprints to 2025

10

5
 10/24/20

Australia

EU India
ASEAN’s Ten
United
Japan
Dialogue
Partners
States

South
Canada
Korea
ASEAN has 4 Sectoral (Pakistan,
Norway, Switzerland a &
Turkey), 2 Development
New Partners (Germany and Chile)
China
Zealand
and one Observer (PNG)
Russia

11

12

6
 10/24/20

ASEAN and COVID-19 (2020)

• Special Video Conferences ASEAN Health Ministers and
ASEAN Plus Three Economic Ministers, 7/4
• Special ASEAN Summit on Coronavirus Disease and ASEAN
Plus Three Summit on COVID-19, 14/4
• Virtual Meetings with Dialogue Partners
• Australia, China, EU, Russia and the US
• COVID-19 Response Fund
• ASEAN Community Councils – comprehensive recovery plan

13

ASEAN Foreign Minister’s Statement on the Importance of

Maintaining Peace and Stability in Southeast Asia, Aug 2020

1. Southeast Asia as a region of peace,

security, neutrality and stability
2. ASEAN - united, cohesive and resilient
3. Commitment to ZOPFAN and Declaration
of the East Asia Summit on Principles of
Mutually Beneficial Relations
4. Exercise self-restraint
5. Strategic trust and mutual confidence
6. ASEAN Centrality - constructive
engagement with ASEAN’s external
partners, through ASEAN-led
mechanisms – EAS, ARF, ADMM-Plus
7. Reaffirm principles of AOIP, with ASEAN
partners to promote AOIP
8. Support multilateralism and UN Charter

14

7
 10/24/20

2. Cyber Security Risks in Southeast Asia

15

Cyber Security Risks

• Use of the Internet by terrorist groups
• Cybercrime including malware and ransomware
• Disinformation and fake news
• Advanced Persistence Threats (APTs)
• Southeast Asia hotspot for cyber attacks in 2020
• State-sponsored hacking to collect intelligence
• Cyber attacks of a strategic nature
• Speed of technology outpaces cybersecurity defence

16

8
 10/24/20

ASEAN’s Roles in Mitigating Cyber Risks

• ASEAN Ministerial Conference on Cybersecurity (five held)
• 1st ASEAN Leaders’ Statement on Cybersecurity Cooperation, 2018
• Singapore-initiated ASEAN Cyber Capacity Program
• ASEAN-Singapore Cybersecurity Centre of Excellence
• ASEAN-Japan Cybersecurity Capacity Building Centre,
Bangkok
• 36th ASEAN Summit “cybersecurity… to support ASEAN
digital economy”

17

ASEAN’s Roles in
Promoting a ‘Healthy’ Cyber Ecosystem
• 3rd ASEAN Ministerial Conference on Cybersecurity endorses
UN Group of Governmental Experts eleven norms (2018)
• Progress stalled due to inability of states to reach consensus on how
international law applied to the field of information and communications
technologies (ICT)
• 36th ASEAN Summit (June 2020) endorsed setting up ASEAN
Coordinating Committee on Cybersecurity (ASEAN-Cyber CC)
• Priority to advance regional cybersecurity policy co-
ordination and capacity building

18

9
 10/24/20

3. People, Power and Politics

• Southeast Asia forecast negative 3.8% GDP growth rate in 2020
• Asian Development Bank
• Southeast Asia has entered a period of potential crisis. COVID has
led to economic stagnation and political disenfranchisement of
youth. Prepare for “Asian Fall.”
• Daniel P. Grant
• COVID-19 pandemic, economic depression and stimulus
packages have led to erosion of basic freedoms and democratic
institutions. The threat of authoritarian reversion is acute among
fledging democracies.
• Richard Heydarian

19

Is Southeast Asia Vulnerable to

Democratic Backsliding and Decline?
• Trends in democracy in Southeast Asia 2001-2020: no evidence of
regression in political rights and civil liberties in recent years
• Little evidence democracy is associated with quality of governance
• Trends in governance in Southeast Asia 2001-2020: little evidence of
broad changes in governance and governance quality; governance
decoupled from regime type but associated with economic
development
• Does the Beijing Model validate authoritarian development?
• China does not incentivize countries to follow it model
• China works with all regime types to support its strategic interests
• Thomas Pepinsky, Brookings Institute Report

20

10
 10/24/20

Conclusion
• ASEAN Centrality
• ASEAN has embedded itself in the regional architecture
• China and the US engage with ASEAN-led institutions
• ASEAN will resist taking sides
• Cyber Security Risks
• Cybersecurity hotspot –cybercrime, APT, state actors
• Capacity-building to attain cyber maturity
• ASEAN Coordinating Committee on Cyber Security
• People, Power and Politics
• China Model of authoritarian capitalism not on the rise

21

22

11
 10/24/20

23

Bibliography
• Amitav Acharya, “The Myth of ASEAN Centrality?”
Contemporary Southeast Asia, 39(2), August 2017, 273-279.
• Daniel P. Grant, “Southeast Asia is Rushing Headlong Toward
an ‘Asian Fall’,” The Diplomat, October 1, 2020.
• Richard Heydarian, “Authoritarians are using coronavirus for
power grabs in Southeast Asia,” Nikkei Asia, April 27, 2020.
• Thomas Pepinsky, “Decoupling Governance and Democracy:
The Challenge of Authoritarian Development in Southeast
Asia,” Foreign Policy at Brookings, July 2020, 1-13.

24

12
 10/24/20

Global Threats and

Challenges in the
21st Century
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Keynote Presentation
Political-Security Stream
UNSW ASEAN Conference
Sydney, October 24, 2020

25

13