IBA Webinar: Covid-19 – Freighter Values and Lease Rates: What Are My Aviation Assets Worth

Welcome to IBA’s Webinar: Covid-19 – Freighter Values and Lease Rates: What Are My Aviation Assets Worth?
Next in our series…. Access the insights and data you need to maximise aviation
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IBA’s Covid-19 Webinar: Regional and
Turboprop Aircraft Values and Lease
Rates: What Are My Aviation Assets
Worth?
Find out why IBA.iQ is the leading platform for aviation intelligence
Thursday 28th May, 2020

9-10am – Register here
4-5pm – Register here
DISCLAIMER: Our discussion may include predictions, estimates or other information that might be considered forward-looking. While
these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment on what the future holds, they are subject to risks and uncertainties
that could cause actual results to differ materially. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements,
which reflect our opinions only as of the date of this presentation. Please keep in mind that we are not obligating ourselves to revise or
publicly release the results of any revision to these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. Throughout
today’s discussion, we will attempt to present some important factors relating to our business that may affect our predictions.
www.iba.aero
IBA Webinar: Covid-19 – Freighter Values and Lease Rates:
What Are My Aviation Assets Worth?
May 14th, 2020
Phil Seymour Jonathan McDonald

ISTAT Certified Senior Appraiser, Fellow ISTAT Certified Senior Appraiser
Company President Head Analyst - Commercial and Ageing Aircraft
Phil.Seymour@iba.aero Jonathan.McDonald@iba.aero
www.iba.aero
IBA in a nutshell
We are an award winning Appraiser with a leading Aviation Intelligence

Platform and a large Asset Management and Technical Team
 Over 30 years in operation
 Over 60 staff worldwide, offices in the UK, US, Japan and Ireland Phil Seymour
President
 21 Full-Time Analysts across Valuations and Advisory
 9 Full-Time data research analysts
 6 ISTAT Certified Appraisers, 5 of which are Seniors, 1 of which is a Senior Appraiser Fellow
 Successful Aviation Intelligence Platform- IBA.iQ
 Active Asset Management Team – Seeing live data, maintenance costs, values, lease rates
 Active Technical Management Team – Direct contact inside airlines, transitioning aircraft, technical knowledge,
maintenance and airline experience
IBA’s Certified ISTAT Appraisers

Fundamental correlation? Freight growth and GDP growth…
All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

What is the size of the current fleet of western built pure jet freighters, 18 tons capacity or more?
Freighter Aircraft by Capacity and Category

160
Widebody
140 Widebody 85-133 tonnes
133
Narrowbody 42-81 tonnes
120 113
103 105
100
Capacity (Tonnes)
90
81
80
69
65
60 54
50 51
42 44
40 36
27
24
20 21 21 21
18
20

What is the size of the current fleet of western built pure jet freighters, 18 tons capacity or more?
Freighter Aircraft Fleet by Status - May 2020

350
Widebody (85-133 Tonnes) Total: 634

300
Narrowbody Total: 662 Widebody (42-81 Tonnes) Total: 645
Active: 546
Active: 569 Active: 544
Damaged: 2
250
Damaged: 4 Damaged: 2
Parked: 19
Parked: 27 Parked: 30
Stored: 67
Stored: 62 Stored: 69
# of Airframes
200
150
100
50
0
A321- 747-
DC/MD-
200P2F/PC 737-700 MD-82SF MD-83SF 737-800 737-300 737-400 757-200 A300 A310-300 DC/MD10 A330 CEO 767-200 A300-600 767-300 747-100 747-8F MD-11F 777F 400F/ERF/
10-30
F BCF/BDSF
Stored 1 1 5 20 17 18 10 12 4 20 4 16 3 6 2 22 1 36
Parked 2 3 11 11 1 2 2 4 9 12 1 1 5 1 11
Damaged 4 2 1 1
Active 6 4 13 21 100 134 291 3 4 12 13 42 53 150 267 9 87 98 181 171

What is the market value and lease rate of a good condition, serviceable narrowbody freighter?
Narrowbody Aircraft Build Years Lease Rate Range Remarks

1987 1991 1998 Lower Higher Still pockets of demand for conversions
Boeing 737-300F
5.01 5.7 7.16 80k 100k Rostrum was converting some ex WN
1989 1993 1999 Lower Higher Feedstock drying up but still popular
Boeing 737-400F
7.62 8.08 9.01 106k 135k All 3 LOT straight to P2F
1998 2003 2008 Lower Higher
Boeing 737-700BDSF Abit niche. Dominated by Alaskan and Spicejet
16.82 18.32 20.42 175k 200k
1999 2002 2004 Lower Higher Very Desirable, likely older builds might get plucked from
Boeing 737-800SF/BCF
20.04 23.22 25.09 200k 230k AA and DJ
1987 1994 2000 Lower Higher Still very popular. Watch out for potentially
Boeing 757-200SF
12.33 16.13 19.78 145k 225k lots more AA aircraft
Boeing 757-200PF A long term UPS special
13.21 17.28 20.54 160k 235k
1998 2000 2001 Lower Higher Potentially very desirable and tapping into 757
Airbus A321-200P2F/PCF market. High lessee specific mods can bump
27.29 28.56 29.19 260k 270k that price up
1987 1990 1992 Lower Higher Niche player unless your name's Everts Air
McDonnell Douglas MD-82SF
3.8 4 4.2 60k 70k Cargo, Aeronaves or Laser
1987 1990 1992 Lower Higher Niche player unless your name's Everts Air
McDonnell Douglas MD-83SF
4 4.2 4.4 65k 75k Cargo, Aeronaves or USA Jet Airlines
As of May 2020. (All Values US$ Million or US$ 1000 for lease rates)

What is the market value and lease rate of a good condition, serviceable mid capacity widebody freighter?
Mid Widebody Aircraft Build Years Lease Rate Range Remarks

Airbus A300F4
0.35 0.45 0.55 Academic Academic Rare, nominal fleet the end is nigh
Some recent reactivation by FDX. DHL and UPS
1994 1998 2007 Lower Higher anchor operators. V useful freighter but
Airbus A300-600F
overshadowed by 767-300F
8.75 10.48 14.17 155k 200k
1988 1991 1994 Lower Higher Little remaining market interest with FDX
Airbus A310-300F
3.7 4.3 5 Academic Academic getting out
2010 2014 2017 Lower Higher Capable aircraft but sluggish sales tally not helped by
Airbus A330-200F more affordable converted 767s and cheapening A330
49.11 60.2 68.8 470k 590k passenger feedstock
Airbus A330-200P2F Still dominated by Egypt Air Cargo but with accelerated
31.38 36.92 43.38 350k 430k pax retirements we should see more impetus
1994 2000 2010 Lower Higher Quite a slow fleet build up but more aircraft awaiting
Airbus A330-300P2F
30 36 47 350k 475k conversion at Dresden
Boeing 767-200SF Quite a low fleet size largely overshadowed by 767-300F
8 9.7 14 150k 190k
1988 1994 2000 Lower Higher Easily the most popular and widely used model in this
Boeing 767-300BCF/SF/BDSF
20.86 23.57 26.5 250k 280k sector along with its long lived factory freighter cousin
1994 2007 2020 Lower Higher Highly acclaimed mid size freighter with a long production
Boeing 767-300F
25.4 33.2 73.5 280k 530k run largely thanks to FDX
1972 1973 1974 Lower Higher Soon time to say good bye to some good old 48 year old
Douglas DC/MD10
0.4 0.41 0.42 Academic Academic friends at FDX.
1975 1979 1983 Lower Higher Likeable old workhorse but the end is nigh for this old 3
Douglas DC/MD-10-30
0.55 0.6 0.65 Academic Academic holer from Long Beach
As of May 2020. All Values US$ Millions or US$ 1,000 for lease rate

What is the market value and lease rate of a good condition, serviceable large capacity widebody freighter?
Large
Large Wide-Body
Widebody Aircraft Build Years Lease Rate Range Remarks
Boeing 747-400F 1993 2001 2009 Lower Higher
Fleet worked hard at the moment so high in demand.
15.23 21.16 35.33 320k 450k
Boeing 747-400ERF Fleet worked hard at the moment so high in demand.
23.28 26.78 36.53 400k 480k
1990 1994 1998 Lower Higher Brief Respite in utilisation and re-activations during
Boeing 747-400BCF
8.29 10.17 10.94 210k 260k COVID-19
1990 1994 1998 Lower Higher Brief Respite in utilisation and re-activations during
Boeing 747-400BDSF
8.04 9.87 10.62 200k 250k COVID-19
2011 2016 2020 Lower Higher Monopolistic Market position. Just what do you
Boeing 747-8F
95 126.5 180 860k 1,480k eventually replace it with ?
2009 2015 2020 Lower Higher Strong Position. High Quality Operator Base. Growing
Boeing 777F Asian presence with CI / BR Cargo etc. Again, just what
86 114.8 153.75 760k 1,300k do you replace this thing with here?
1991 1995 2000 Lower Higher Temporary reprieve with LH Cargo delaying retirement
during COVID, FDX, 5X and Western Global all busy for
McDonnell Douglas MD-11F now. Otherwise market not good long term. Remember
3.41 4.03 4.99 130k 155k
20 years ago when these were among the best freighters
to have. How times change.
As of May 2020 (All Values US$ Million or US$ 1,000 for lease rates)

May 2020
How does IBA rate each model’s value, lease rate and demand prospects over next 5 years here?
Type Rest of 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Boeing 737-300F Ex WN? Fleet ageing and migration towards 400s then 800s
Boeing 737-400F Should remain popular despite -800 Fleet ageing
Boeing 737-700BDSF Some synergies with 800 but overshadowed by larger stablemate
Boeing 737-800SF/BCF Highly desirable asset and more feedstock should bring down prices
Boeing 757-200SF Should remain a key player and still plenty of good feedstock out there
Boeing 757-200PF Desirable factory delivered Freighter
Airbus A321-200P2F/PCF Not really in service Highly desirable asset, feedstock needs monitoring
McDonnell Douglas MD-82SF Niche - Difficult to judge
McDonnell Douglas MD-83SF Niche - Difficult to judge
Airbus A300F4 Ageing and On its way out Probably all retired
Airbus A300-600F Temp reprieve Aircraft back to desert, will DHL retire or keep ?
Airbus A310-300F RJ still using Fleet Diminshes no real market retired ?
Airbus A330-200F Good capable factory freighter, but slow sales and narrow operator base
Airbus A330-200P2F Good capable P2F W/B but uptake a little slow, feedstock price influential
Airbus A330-300P2F Good capable P2F W/B but uptake a little slow, feedstock price influential
Boeing 767-200SF Seemingly overshadowed by 767-300s Ageing fleet
Boeing 767-300BCF/SF/BDSF Still the go to medium capacity W/B Some ageing
Boeing 767-300F Still highly regarded and not likely to change
Douglas DC/MD10 FDX Last bastion Any left? Probably all retired
Douglas DC/MD-10-30 Mostly FDX Probably all retired
Boeing 747-400F Nose loader still in demand and very capable Fleet ageing
Boeing 747-400ERF Nose loader still in demand and very capable Fleet ageing
Boeing 747-400BCF Temp reprieve demand waning Aircraft back in desert? Difficult to see much demand
Boeing 747-400BDSF Temp reprieve demand waning Aircraft back in desert? Difficult to see much demand
Boeing 747-8F What else can do its job? Could be some parked in a downturn, but what do you replace it with
Boeing 777F Very Capable Freighter strong Asian demand But a few could get parked in a downturn
McDonnell Douglas MD-11F

What are typical freighter conversion costs?

What are the freighter conversion options?
Freighter Conversion Centres

Model Firm Location Name Remarks
Airbus A320-200 EFW (Elbe Flugzeugwerke GmbH) DRS Dresden
Airbus A320-200 C3 Aerospace sijui
Airbus A321-200 321 Precision Conversions SFB Orlando
Airbus A321-200 C3 Aerospace sijui
Airbus A321-200 EFW (Elbe Flugzeugwerke GmbH) XSP Sing Seletar
Airbus A330-300 EFW (Elbe Flugzeugwerke GmbH) DRS Dresden
Airbus A330-300 EFW (Elbe Flugzeugwerke GmbH) XSP Sing Seletar
Boeing 737-300 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Commercial Jet Inc DHN Dothan AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Boeing 737-300 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Commercial Jet Inc MIA Miami AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Boeing 737-300 IAI/Bedek TLV Tel Aviv Bedek Special Freighter (BDSF)
Boeing 737-300 IAI/Bedek TLV Tel Aviv Bedek Quick Change (BDQC)
Boeing 737-300/400 IAI/Bedek/Guangzhou Aircraft Maintenance CAN Guangzhou Bedek Special Freighter (BDSF)
Boeing 737-300/400 PEMCO/Guangzhou Aircraft Maintenance CAN Guangzhou PEMCO/Boeing STC (SF)
Boeing 737-300/400 IAI/Bedek/Denel ? JNB Joburg Bedek Special Freighter (BDSF)
Boeing 737-300/400 PEMCO/COOPESA SJO San Jose PEMCO/Boeing STC (SF)
Boeing 737-300/400 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Airod Aerospace Technology Sdn Bhd SZB Sultan Abdul KL AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Boeing 737-300/400 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/HAECO TNA Jinan AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Boeing 737-300/400 PEMCO/STAECO TNA Jinan PEMCO/Boeing STC (SF)
Boeing 737-300/400 PEMCO/TAECO XMN Xiamen PEMCO/Boeing STC (SF)
Boeing 737-300/400 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Kelowna Flightcraft YHM Hamilton CA AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Boeing 737-300/400 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Kelowna Flightcraft YLW Kelowna PEMCO/Boeing STC (SF)


Boeing 737-400 IAI/Bedek/Mexican MRO Services MEX Mexico City Bedek Special Freighter (BDSF)
Boeing 737-400 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Boeing Shanghai Aviation Services Co., Ltd.PVG Shanghai AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Boeing 737-400 PEMCO/Commercial Jet Inc TPA Tampa PEMCO/Boeing STC (SF)
Boeing 737-400 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Flightstar Aircraft Services LLC VQQ Cecil Florida AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Boeing 737-700 PEMCO/Guangzhou Aircraft Maintenance CAN Guangzhou PEMCO (FC)
Boeing 737-700 PEMCO/Commercial Jet Inc TPA Tampa PEMCO (FC)
Boeing 737-700/800 IAI/Bedek TLV Tel Aviv Bedek Special Freighter (BDSF)
Boeing 737-700/800 IAI/Bedek/Tianjin Haite Aircraft Engineering Co., Ltd. TSN Tianjin Bedek Special Freighter (BDSF)
Boeing 737-800 Boeing Shanghai Aviation Services Co., Ltd. PVG Shanghai Boeing Converted Freighter (BCF)
Boeing 737-800 Taikoo (Shandong) Aircraft Engineering Co. Ltd. (STAECO) TNA Jinan Boeing Converted Freighter (BCF)
Boeing 737-800 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Taikoo (Shandong) Aircraft Engineering Co.TNALtd. (STAECO)
Jinan AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Boeing 737-800 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Flightstar Aircraft Services LLC VQQ Cecil Florida AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)


Boeing 757-200 ST Aerospace BFM Mobile Alabama Boeing Converted Freighter (BCF)
Boeing 757-200 Precision Aircraft Solutions/Air China Technics/AMECO CTU Chengdu Precision Converted Freighter (PCF)
Boeing 757-200 Precision Aircraft Solutions/HAECO Americas GSO Greensboro Precision Converted Freighter (PCF)
Boeing 757-200 Precision Aircraft Solutions/AeroTurbine GYR Goodyear Precision Converted Freighter (PCF)
Boeing 757-200 Alcoa-SIE Conversions LLC MCI Kansas City Alcoa-SIE Conversions LLC
Boeing 757-200 BF Goodrich PAE Paine Field Precision Converted Freighter (PCF)
Boeing 757-200 Precision Aircraft Solutions/Flightstar Aircraft Services LLC VQQ Cecil Florida Precision Converted Freighter (PCF)
Boeing 757-200 Commercial Jet Inc/HAECO XMN Xiamen (BCF) or (SF) ?
Boeing 757-200 Precision Aircraft Solutions/TAECO XMN Xiamen Precision Converted Freighter (PCF)
Boeing 757-200 ST Aerospace XSP Sing Seletar Boeing Converted Freighter (BCF)
Boeing 757-200 Alcoa-SIE Conversions LLC YXX Abbotsford Alcoa-SIE Conversions LLC
Boeing 767-300 ST Aerospace BFM Mobile Alabama Boeing Converted Freighter (BCF)
Boeing 767-300 IAI/Bedek/Mexican MRO Services MEX Mexico City Bedek Special Freighter (BDSF)
Boeing 767-300 ST Aerospace QPG Paya Lebar Boeing Converted Freighter (BCF)
Boeing 767-300 Evergreen Aviation Technologies TPE Taipei Boeing Converted Freighter (BCF)
Boeing 767-300 ST Aerospace XSP Sing Seletar Boeing Converted Freighter (BCF)
Canadair CRJ-200 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Commercial Jet Inc DHN Dothan AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Canadair CRJ-200 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Commercial Jet Inc MIA Miami AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Canadair CRJ-200 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/COOPESA SJO San Jose AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
Canadair CRJ-200 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Flightstar Aircraft Services LLC VQQ Cecil Florida AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
MD-80 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Commercial Jet Inc MIA Miami AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)
MD-80 AEI Aeronautical Engineers Inc/Flightstar Aircraft Services LLC VQQ Cecil Florida AEI Aeronautical Engineer (SF)

Which aircraft types are most vulnerable?
Airbus A310-300F: Fedex retiring, little used market.
McDonnell Douglas MD-11F: Lufthansa Cargo supposed to retire in 2020 but hanging on short term due to
Covid-19 demand. 5X and FDX might be its saving grace as long term anchor operators, but little consolation
value wise.
Airbus A300-600F: Temporary re-activations to cover Covid-19 at FDX but short term. Future at DHL but
somehow overshadowed by Boeing 767 and the potential for much cheaper Airbus A330 P2F feedstock.
Boeing 747-400BDSF/BCF: Plenty of activity to support Covid-19 – just log on to Flight Radar 24 to see; but
once this spike in activity is all over (whenever that happens); do the aircraft just go back to a dormant life in
the desert? We think that is the probable outcome.

Which aircraft are less vulnerable?
Boeing 737-300F: An ageing fleet and Boeing 737-400F the preferred option now. Still, some ex WN
aircraft being converted and still a very influential aircraft within its market segment.
Boeing 747-400F/ERF: A heroic old aircraft battling Covid-19 and a huge contributor to the “war effort”;
but what happens after Covid-19 and the downturn takes hold. Remember what happened to these in
2009? Then again, look at what you get for your 113 tonne capability. A Boeing 777F is far more
expensive and can’t nose load while a Boeing 747-8F is way too expensive in comparison. Vulnerable to
downturns but what a superb aircraft.

Which aircraft are more secure ?
Boeing 757-200F: The carriers are so centric to Boeing 757-200Fs that it would be a hurdle to move
away from this and with AA fleet now probably almost inevitably retired, there’s now more feedstock to
grab hold of and join the queue for a –P2F. And no, we don’t think A321P2Fs are suddenly going to just
supplant these.
Boeing 767-300F / 300ERBDSF: FDX seems to love the new variant and will no doubt keep it going for a
long time. But for the money, the converted freighters seem to be just the right fit in that mid capacity
sector and it is obvious by the dominant fleet size, that this is the aircraft of choice within its sector.
Freighters are long term investments and we don’t see circumstances for these changing too quickly.
Boeing 737-400F: Despite the gradual shift towards the larger and newer technology -800SF, for less
than half the outlay, you get an only slightly smaller aircraft, and actually, not that much older one when
you take a late build 400SF versus earlier 800SF. A lot of -400s were only recently converted and there
are still some left to do; so given the long term investment in –P2Fs, are these going to wither away just
because there’s an -800 round the corner – we don’t think so.
Boeing 737-800SF: Invariably this will become the sub Boeing 757 capacity freighter of choice as the
feedstock is there in drips and drabs and growing, is getting sensibly priced, and moves the game
forward in terms of technology and efficiency. A strong candidate as the freighter of choice moving
forward.
Which aircraft are more secure ?
Airbus A321-200P2F: It seems clear that this will become a key player around that Boeing 757 size
category. There was a lack of feedstock before Covid-19, and there still is; it’s not as though the airlines
are suddenly deciding they want rid of their Airbus A321-200s after-all.
Boeing 777-200F: Large aircraft fall prey of dreaded overcapacity when downturns occur; but we look
at it this way; they still need some capacity; so where MD-11Fs will prove unpopular, and some Boeing
747s might have to temporarily or permanently “furlough”, the Boeing 777F will just happen to be in
that comfortable position where it remains desirable, efficient and highly capable; what else will do the
job and goodness knows what will replace it. Nice position to be in!

How many aircraft are being used as temporary freighters?
Over 800 aircraft and 109 airlines

Model Approx Number
Boeing 777-300/300ER 242
Boeing 787-All variants 212
Airbus A330 All Variants 134
Airbus A350 Both Variants 83
Boeing 777-200/200ER/LR 28
Boeing 737-800 25
Airbus A321/N 23
Airbus A320/N 21
Airbus A340-300/600 12
Boeing 767-200/300ER 12
Boeing 747-400 3
752/E175/DH8/319/A220/ATR 17
Total 812

Closing debate: Boeing 777-300ER P2F value question
The once mighty Boeing 777-300ER finally looks as though values of earlier aircraft may just come under
some downward pressure.
Prior to Covid-19, this is how IBA would have priced up a 2005 delivered passenger aircraft for a 2023
emergence from – P2F.
At 2020 Pricing and 2023 Pricing
2020 Pricing Pre Covid Influenced Numbers
Conversion Additional Factors Total Outlay / Likely Total Total Likely Value
YOB Pax Aircraft Feedstock Price Cost MX Etc Payload Value Hours 2020 Cycles 2020 Scrap Year Difference IBA Remarks
2005 77W $40,000,000 $29,000,000 5,500,000 101.6 tonnes $74,500,000 65,300 10,530 2039 $11,500,000 Kweli? Too Expensive
2009 Boeing 777F N/A N/A N/A 103 tonnes $86,000,000 36,000 5,800 2044 Clearly better
2023 Pricing Pre Covid Influenced Numbers

2005 77W $35,000,000 $29,000,000 5,500,000 101.6 tonnes $69,500,000 78,300 12,600 2039 $5,500,000 Kweli? Still Too Expensive
2009 Boeing 777F N/A N/A N/A 103 tonnes $75,000,000 45,700 7,400 2044 Clearly better

Closing debate: Boeing 777-300ER P2F value question
At 2023 pricing allowing for Covid-19 pressure

2023 Pricing Allowing for some Covid Pressure
2005 77W $26,600,000 $29,000,000 5,500,000 101.6 tonnes $61,100,000 78,300 12,600 2039 $13,900,000 Beginning to make Sense
2009 Boeing 777F N/A N/A N/A 103 tonnes $75,000,000 45,700 7,400 2044
At 2023 pricing if Boeing 777-300ER values face even more pressure just like Boeing 777-200ER
values did in 2015
2023 Pricing If Values serioulsy hit like they did for 77E
2005 77W $15,500,000 $29,000,000 8,500,000 101.6 tonnes $53,000,000 78,300 12,600 2039 $22,000,000 Now We're talking !!
At 2023 pricing if Boeing 777-300ER values face even more pressure just like Boeing 777-200ER values
did in 2015 BUT Boeing 777-200F Values also fall below IBA’s forecast numbers as well
2023 Pricing If Values serioulsy hit like they did for 77E BUT Values for 77F come out below IBA forecast too
2005 77W $15,500,000 $29,000,000 8,500,000 101.6 tonnes $53,000,000 78,300 12,600 2039 $14,500,000 Still kind of makes sense

Closing debate: Boeing 777-300ER P2F lease rate question
IBA’s initial opinion is that a 2023/2024 converted Boeing 777-300ERBDSF would have a
lease rate range of between US$ 680,000 and US$ 720,000. (In 2023)
Please then consider this; IBA forecast that a 2009 Boeing 777-200F will have a lease rate
range of between US$ 770,000 and US$ 820,000 in 2023; Assuming our forecast is right and
that the Boeing 777-200F rates don’t reduce further, that doesn’t allow a lot of room for
manoeuvre between one aircraft with about 2/3rds the hours and cycles, and is still more
capable.

The unsung hero: ATR72-200/500 series freighters
Model YOB Non LCD With LCD

ATR72-200F/210F Series 1996 $4,500,000 $6,000,000
ATR72-500F 1997 $5,500,000 $7,000,000
ATR72-600F 2020 N/A $19,830,000
Lower Lease Higher Lease

Model YOB Rate Rate
ATR72-200F/210F Series
Non LCD 1996 $72,000 $76,000
ATR72-200F/210F Series
With LCD 1996 $82,000 $86,000
ATR72-500F Series Non
LCD 1997 $80,000 $84,000
ATR72-500F Series With
LCD 1997 $90,000 $94,000
ATR72-600F 2020 $180,000 $185,000

Your Questions to the Panel…..
Phil Seymour Jonathan McDonald

President Head Analyst - Commercial
& Ageing Aircraft

Next in our series…. Access the insights and data you need to maximise aviation
investments
IBA’s Covid-19 Webinar: Regional and
Turboprop Aircraft Values and Lease
Rates: What Are My Aviation Assets
Worth?
Find out why IBA.iQ is the leading platform for aviation intelligence
Thursday 28th May, 2020

9-10am – Register here
4-5pm – Register here
DISCLAIMER: Our discussion may include predictions, estimates or other information that might be considered forward-looking. While
these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment on what the future holds, they are subject to risks and uncertainties
that could cause actual results to differ materially. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements,
which reflect our opinions only as of the date of this presentation. Please keep in mind that we are not obligating ourselves to revise or
publicly release the results of any revision to these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. Throughout
today’s discussion, we will attempt to present some important factors relating to our business that may affect our predictions.
www.iba.aero

IBA Webinar: Covid-19 – Freighter Values and Lease Rates: What Are My Aviation Assets Worth

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Welcome to IBA’s Webinar: Covid-19 – Freighter Values and Lease Rates: What Are My Aviation Assets Worth?

Thursday 28th May, 2020

Phil Seymour Jonathan McDonald

We are an award winning Appraiser with a leading Aviation Intelligence

IBA’s Certified ISTAT Appraisers

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Freighter Aircraft by Capacity and Category

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Freighter Aircraft Fleet by Status - May 2020

Widebody (85-133 Tonnes) Total: 634

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Narrowbody Aircraft Build Years Lease Rate Range Remarks

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Mid Widebody Aircraft Build Years Lease Rate Range Remarks

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Type Rest of 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Freighter Conversion Centres

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Freighter Conversion Centres

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Freighter Conversion Centres

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Airbus A310-300F: Fedex retiring, little used market.

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Over 800 aircraft and 109 airlines

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

2023 Pricing Pre Covid Influenced Numbers

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

At 2023 pricing allowing for Covid-19 pressure

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Model YOB Non LCD With LCD

Lower Lease Higher Lease

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Phil Seymour Jonathan McDonald

All materials are intellectual property of IBA Group

Thursday 28th May, 2020

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