MEMO: FLCD16 POLLING RESULTS

From: Matt Mitchell, mmitchell@datatargeting.com

To: Interested Parties
Date: 22 October 2020

We have completed our third survey for the CD16 general election since the August primary
elections. Congressman Buchanan continues to post a strong lead over Margaret Good,
besting the Democrat by a 53% to 38% margin districtwide.

- Buchanan’s lead remains strong across key demographic groups that decide
elections in CD16. Buchanan posts a 12-point lead (53%-41%) with voters over age
65 and a 28-point lead (61%-33%) with voters 50-64 years of age. Failing to compete
for the senior vote in a district like CD16 makes a Democrat’s path to victory
extremely (and perhaps impossibly) narrow.

- Representative Good has seen her name ID grow in the last month, but her
unfavorable name recognition has more than tripled since early September. In
early September, just 8% of respondents had an unfavorable impression of
Representative Good. As of this week, 26% of respondents now view Good
negatively. Combined with a steep net -38% name recognition figure with
Republicans (7 fav / 45 unfav), Good is struggling mightily to gain traction with the
demographic groups with whom a Democrat needs to perform competently in order
to win District 16.

www.DataTargeting.com | (352) 332-2115 | service@datatargeting.com v

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METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted on the evenings of October 19 through October 21, 2020 among
registered voters in Florida’s 16th Congressional District. Voters were selected for our survey
sample based on their predicted probability of voting in the 2020 general election, a
probability derived from Data Targeting’s proprietary modeling program that predicts an
individual voter’s likelihood of voting in a given election.

A total of 400 voters completed our survey, which was conducted by telephone using live
interviewers who spoke to respondents on both landline and mobile phones. Results are
weighted to voter turnout in the 2016 general election by age, race, gender, party and county,
and have a margin of error of +/- 4.9% within a 95% confidence interval.

www.DataTargeting.com | (352) 332-2115 | service@datatargeting.com v

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