electoral college.

Chance of winning Chance of win

the electoral college the most votes
Joe Biden better than 9 in 10 better than 19
Democrat or 92% or >99%
Donald Trump less than 1 in 10 less than 1 in 2
Republican or 8% or <1%
The probability of an electoral-college tie is <1%

Estimated electoral college votes

Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with
economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate
of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day.
95% confidence
60%
Median
MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember070170370470538El
ection dayOct 21stOct 21stBiden 347Biden 347Trump 191Trump 191270 to
win270 to win
Electoral votesChance of winning
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Electoral-college simulations

Our model works by simulating 20,000 paths for the election, each time varying
candidates’ vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the
political environment and the effects of campaigning. The bars below represent the
predicted likelihood of every plausible electoral-vote outcome.
Biden wins 92%
Tie <1%
Trump wins 8%
369344319294269294319344369394419444
= one simulation
By electoral votesBy winner

Chance of winning each state

Our model combines the national prediction with polls and political-economic
factors at the state level. We take into account that states that are similar are likely
to move with each other; if Donald Trump wins Minnesota, he will probably win
Wisconsin too.
Biden
Win probability, %
Trump
Safe
99+
Very likely
85-99
Likely
65-85
Uncertain
50-65
Likely
65-85
Very likely
85-99
Safe
99+
Electoral votes102555ALAZCOFLGAINKSMAMNNJNCOKPATXCTMOILAR
CAHIIAKYMDMINYOHORTNUTVAWAWINESCIDNVLARI

Electoral votes by state, ordered by win probability

BidenTrumpCANYWANJILVAMIWIFLAZNCGAOHTXINTN270 to
winCompetitive states 133 votes

Key states

We use two metrics to measure states’ importance. One is the “tipping-point

probability”: the chance that a state will cast the decisive 270 th electoral vote for
the victor. The other is the chance that any single voter in a state will cast the
decisive ballot that wins the tipping-point state for the next president.
State
Projected vote margin
Margin in 2016
Win probability
Chance of voter deciding election
Tipping-point probability
Pennsylvania
0+6+6
R +0.8
D 89%
1 in 7.9m
26%
Florida
+3+3
R +1
D 77%
1 in 20m
14%
Michigan
+7+7
R +0.2
D 93%
1 in 10m
13%
Wisconsin
+6+6
R +0.8
D 91%
1 in 7.7m
12%
North Carolina
+2+2
R +4
D 68%
1 in 25m
6%
Arizona
+3+3
R +4
D 72%
1 in 15m
5%
Minnesota
+8+8
D +2
D 96%
1 in 15m
5%
Texas
+2+2
R +9
R 70%
1 in 51m
4%
New Hampshire
+7+7
D +0.4
D 94%
1 in 9.1m
3%
Georgia
+0+0
R +5
R 52%
1 in 32m
3%
Loading...

Show all states

Modelled popular vote on each day

The model first averages the polls, weighting them by their sample sizes and
correcting them for tendencies to overestimate support for one party. It then
combines this average with our forecast based on non-polling data, pulling vote
shares on each day slightly towards the final election-day projection.
95%
confidence
60%
Average
Modelled two-party popular vote
MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember4045505560Election
day prediction54.1%54.1%45.9%45.9%Oct 21stOct
21stBiden54.2%Biden54.2%Trump45.8%Trump45.8%
ForecastPolls
Pollster
Date
Population
Mode
Sample size
Biden
Trump
Margin
YouGov (Economist)
OCT 18TH-OCT 20TH
Likely to vote
Online
1,344
55%
45%
D +9.5
Change Research (CNBC)
OCT 17TH-OCT 18TH
Likely to vote
Online
2,711
55%
45%
D +10.6
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
OCT 17TH-OCT 18TH
Likely to vote
Online
2,915
56%
44%
D +12.1
Ipsos (Reuters)
OCT 16TH-OCT 20TH
Likely to vote
Online
949
55%
45%
D +9.7
Research Co.
OCT 16TH-OCT 18TH
Likely to vote
Online
1,053
54%
46%
D +8.7
SurveyUSA
OCT 16TH-OCT 19TH
Likely to vote
Online
1,135
55%
45%
D +10.4
Morning Consult
OCT 16TH-OCT 18TH
Likely to vote
Online
14,994
55%
45%
D +9.5
YouGov (Yahoo)
OCT 16TH-OCT 18TH
Likely to vote
Online
800
56%
44%
D +12.1
NYT/Siena College
OCT 15TH-OCT 18TH
Likely to vote
Live Phone
987
55%
45%
D +9.9
RMG Research
OCT 15TH-OCT 17TH
Likely to vote
Online
1,265
54%
46%
D +8.5
Loading...

See all polls

How states move together

Our model also simulates what would happen if the race moves, or the polls are
biased, in similar amounts in like states. We calculate similarity between states by
comparing their demographic and political profiles, such as the share of white
voters who live there, how religious they are and how urban or rural the state is.
Correlation
with WisconsinLow=0High=1005454595954546666606039397772728254548538
386666727256568670702626676757577872725555262658582626656516162222
85737325258639398081343485786262585869697373WIWI73735959737343437
07048486363

Sources: US Census Bureau; MIT Election and Data Science Lab; 2016
Cooperative Congressional Election Study; US Bureau of Economic Analysis;
American National Election Studies; 270towin.com; Gallup; FiveThirtyEight;
YouGov

Forecast by The Economist with Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns,

Columbia University

Download source codeDownload model outputDownload polling data

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