Response to TED Talk by Gavin Schmidt

SUMMARY
● 14 orders of Magnitude
● Resolved physics
● Sub-scale processes are even harder to calculate
● 1 extra magnitude every decade
● Climate model: looks like a punch card
● How do we go from complexity to one line of code?
● Emergent properties come from the interactions of small scale processes
● Kicking the system:
○ Changes in the solar cycles
○ Volcanoes
○ Changes in biomass burning
○ Ozone hole
○ Deforestation
○ Contrails
○ Greenhouse gasses
● Model skills
○ Does a model tell you more information?
○ Skill: A model result is skillful if it gives better predictions than a simpler alternative
○ Models are skillful… in response to the polar ozone hole
■ Model is skillful in response to
● Solar cycles
● Orbital changes over the last 6000 years
● Ice sheets 20 000 years ago
● 20th-century multi-decadal trends
● Lake outbursts into North Atlantic 8000 years ago
○ Each of these leads us to add more scope to the models
● Expanding curiosity:
○ How do air pollution and climate coexist?
○ Can we change things that affect air pollution and climate at the same time?
■ Yes, we can.
 ■ Global warming is directly related to the amount of carbon dioxide we put out
into the air
● “If we had observations of the future, we obviously would trust them more than models, but
unfortunately observations of the future are not available at this time.” - Tom Knutson and
Robert Tuleys
○ And on to the 21st century, we have options:
■ Some mitigations
■ Aggressive mitigation
■ Business-As-Usual
● “What’s the use of having developed a science well enough to make predictions if, in the end,
all we’re willing to do it stand around and wait for them to come true?” - Sherwood Rowland

PERSONAL TAKEAWAYS
Gavin Schmidt’s “The emergent patterns of Climate Change” TED Talk presentation, examines the
past, present and future climate evolutions. Schmidt explains both the factors that affect climate, and
patterns that have been recorded through many examples and higher models. The presenter also talks
about “kicking the system”, expanding curiosity, and the choices people have related to global
warming. One of the important messages that Gavin Schmidt conveys through his TED Talk
presentation that stood out to me is that, information is only valuable if people act on it. Schmidt
shares a quote by Sherwood Rowland at the end of his presentation that asks, “What’s the use of
having developed a science well enough to make predictions if, in the end, all we’re willing to do it
stand around and wait for them to come true?”. I think this is a very relevant question as ‘action’ has
been infrequent lately. The world is familiar with the science related to Climate Change. There are
numerous models that represent the relationship between the climate system and human behaviour.
The data presented on these models show the dangers of humans continuing to live with a
“Business-As-Usual” type of attitude. It’s not the lack of education that results in no action, it’s the
fact that people cannot observe their negative impacts immediately. In my opinion, action related to
climate change is not significant because the consequences of our continued improper behaviour
related to the world, are distant. We do not see how much we are impacting the environment
negatively, and as a result, people do not feel the urgent need to change their lifestyle. Overall, the
information Gavin Schmidt presented was valuable, important and educational. It made me question
if people will change their lifestyles before we cross the point of no return.