Pan Atlantic Research 56th Omnibus Report

56TH OMNIBUS POLL
217 Commercial St.

Portland, Maine 04101 “The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion”
(207) 221-8877
www.panatlanticresearch.com October, 2020
#1 Ranked Maine-Based Pollster by

FiveThirtyEight in the 2014 and 2018
Election Cycles
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Table of Contents
PAN ATLANTIC RESEARCH
I. Background 3
II. Methodology 4
III. Poll Results
National and State Political Climate 7
2020 Election 16
Coronavirus Pandemic 27
Other Issues 32
IV. Demographics of the Sample 35
2
I. Background
• Pan Atlantic Research is a Portland, Maine based, independent marketing
research and consulting firm which is currently in its 36th year of successful
operation.
• This Omnibus Poll is the 56th poll in a series of statewide polls conducted by
Pan Atlantic Research on public policy, business, economic, and technology
issues.
• Information contained in the Omnibus Poll is developed and intended for
clients of Pan Atlantic Research, the media, and the general public.
• The research conducted for this Omnibus Poll was not commissioned or
paid for by any clients or other parties. Proprietary research collected on
other matters for clients (non-election issues) is not included in this report
and is the sole property of those clients who commissioned it.
• For further information about the poll or usage thereof, please contact
Patrick O. Murphy, President, or Jason Edes, Director of Research, at (207)
221-8877 or by email at pmurphy@panatlanticresearch.com and
jedes@panatlanticresearch.com, respectively.
3
II. Methodology
• The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll was conducted
between October 2nd and October 6th, 2020.
• A randomly selected sample of 600 Maine residents (“likely

voters”) was interviewed online. Participants were recruited
using a panel provided by our vendor partner Dynata, a highly
respected national research panel provider.
• Data were weighted using US Census Bureau data to match
the composition of Maine’s historical voting population based
on Congressional District, age, education, and gender.
• Each of Maine’s two Congressional Districts are represented by
half of the sample. It should be noted that the sample size is
more limited for each of the two Congressional Districts (300
per Congressional District).
4
II. Methodology
• The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the
following criteria:
➢ Are “certain,” “very likely,” or “likely” to vote in the

upcoming election on November 3th, 2020
➢ Are registered to vote in Maine
➢ Are ages 18 and older
➢ Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a

market research, advertising or media firm.
• It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0
percent due to the rounding of decimals.
5
II. Methodology
• After weights (for CD, education, income, age, and gender) have been
applied, results based on answers from all 600 respondents have a
margin of sampling error of approximately ± 4.5% at the 95%
confidence level.
• The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples,

including Congressional District, political party affiliation, age,
education, income, and gender. The margins of error for specific sub-
samples are higher than the ± 4.5% margin of sampling error for the
entire sample.
• The margin of error for each Congressional District is ± 6.4% at the
95% confidence level
• Finally, we note that as with all surveys, these results are indicative of
public opinion at a singular point in time and do not seek to project
final election results. 6
III. Pan Atlantic 56th Omnibus Poll Results:
National and State Political Climate
7
Intended Method of Voting

52.3% of respondents say that they intend to vote in-person in the upcoming
November elections, while 40.0% of respondents intend to vote by mail.
In-person
52.3%
By mail • 7.7% of respondents are not sure
40.0%
how they intend to vote.
• 51.2% of Democrats said that they

intend to vote by mail compared to
44.8% of Independents and only
22.0% of Republicans.
Not sure
7.7%
• Do you plan to vote in person or by mail in the upcoming November elections?

8
Key Issues Facing the State of Maine – Top 3 Issues Combined

Respondents most frequently named (1) the COVID-19 pandemic, (2) Healthcare access
and insurance coverage, and (3) Jobs / Employment as the most important issues facing the
State of Maine today. Data below represents the sum of respondents’ top three issues.
COVID-19 Pandemic 49.9%

Healthcare access and insurance coverage 43.3%
Jobs / Employment 40.4%
Cost of living 36.5%
High taxes 30.4%
Education / Schools 22.4%
Climate change / Environmental issues 19.2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
• What do you think are the three most important issues facing the State of Maine today? 9
Favorability Ratings (4-Point Scale)

Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Don't know
Senator Angus King 33.8% 32.2% 14.9% 12.0% 7.2%
Governor Janet Mills 31.3% 28.5% 16.1% 21.9% 2.1%
Congressman Jared Golden [CD2

30.9% 30.7% 18.3% 11.3% 8.9%
Only]
Congresswoman Chellie Pingree
19.9% 37.1% 12.5% 13.4% 17.0%
[CD1 Only]
Speaker of the Maine House of
19.3% 32.2% 19.4% 25.0% 4.2%
Representatives Sara Gideon
Senator Susan Collins 17.2% 26.7% 25.8% 28.9% 1.5%
President Donald Trump 23.8% 17.5% 7.4% 50.7% 0.6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
• The following are the names of some people holding public office in Maine and nationally. For each person, please
indicate whether you have a “very favorable”, “somewhat favorable”, “somewhat unfavorable”, or “very unfavorable”
opinion of them. 10
Net Favorability (% Favorable - % Unfavorable)

Sen. Angus King +39.1
Rep. Jared Golden

+32.0
(2nd District Only) • Among figures tested, Angus King,
Rep. Chellie Pingree Jared Golden, Chellie Pingree, Janet
+31.1
(1st District Only) Mills, and Sara Gideon all have
positive net favorability ratings.
Governor Janet Mills +21.8
Speaker of the Maine House of • Susan Collins and Donald Trump each
+7.1
Representatives Sara Gideon have negative net favorability ratings.
Sen. Susan Collins -10.8
President Donald Trump -16.8
opinion of them. [Order was rotated.] 11
Net Favorability – Governor Janet Mills
By District and Political Party Affiliation
Governor Janet Mills’s Net Favorability is +26.8 in the 1st Congressional District and +16.6 in the
2nd Congressional District. It is +70.8 among Democrats, +29.7 among Independents, and -32.6
among Republicans.
Net Favorability by Net Favorability by
30
District 80 70.8
Party Affiliation
26.8
25 60
20
16.6 40 29.7
15 20
10 0 Republican
Democrat Independent
5 -20
0 -40
-32.6
CD1 CD2
Net Favorability – Speaker Sara Gideon and Senator Susan Collins
By Congressional District
Sara Gideon’s Net Favorability is +12.1 in the 1st Congressional District and +2.1 in the 2nd
Congressional District. Susan Collins’s Net Favorability is -18.3 in the 1st Congressional District
and -3.2 in the 2nd Congressional District.
Net Favorability by District Net Favorability by District

Sara Gideon 20
Susan Collins
20
15 12.1 15
10 10
5 2.1 5
0 0 CD1 CD2
-5 CD1 CD2 -5
-3.2
-10 -10
-15 -15
-20 -20
-18.3
Net Favorability – President Donald Trump
By Congressional District and Gender
Donald Trump’s Net Favorability is -26.9 in the 1st Congressional District and -6.7 in the 2nd
Congressional District. His Net Favorability is -23.7 among female likely voters and -10.0 among
male likely voters.
Net Favorability Net Favorability

by District by Gender
0 CD1 CD2 0
Female Male
-5 -5
-10 -6.7 -10

-10.0
-15 -15
-20 -20
-25 -25
-23.7
-30 -26.9 -30
Approval of Job Performance
President, Maine’s Governor and two Senators
59.6% of respondents approve of Senator Angus King’s job performance, while 56.5% approve of
Governor Janet Mills’s job performance. Conversely, 51.5% of respondents disapprove of Senator
Susan Collins’s job performance, while 55.7% disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job
performance.
70% Approve Disapprove Unsure

59.6%
60% 56.5% 55.7%
51.5%
50%
38.6% 40.1%
40%
30.9%
30%
20.1% 20.3%
20%
12.6%
9.9%
10% 4.2%
0%
Senator Angus King Governor Janet Mills Senator Susan Collins President Donald Trump
• Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Donald Trump / Janet Mills / Susan Collins / Angus King] is doing as
[President / Governor / Senator]? [Order was rotated.] 15
2020 Election
16
2020 Elections Questions

• For each race in the upcoming November 2020 elections, respondents were first
asked “If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?”
• Respondents who answered “don’t know” to this question were asked the follow-up
question “Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not
yet fully made up your mind?” Respondents who indicated a candidate preference
on this question are included in each candidate’s total vote share figures in the
slides which follow.
• This methodology follows empirically validated polling best practices.
17
In the race for President, Joe Biden (D) is leading Donald Trump (R) by a
Presidential Election margin of 10.6 percentage points. This margin is similar to that in other
polls conducted in Maine over the past few months.
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Joe Biden (D) Donald Trump (R) All other candidates Undecided
Total Vote Share 50.3% 39.7% 6.2% 3.8%

% Voting 50.0% 38.9% 6.0%
% Leaning 0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
• On November 3rd, Americans will vote for President. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
• Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not yet fully made up your mind? 18
Presidential Election – Key Demographics

Total Support by Total Support by Total Support by
80%
District Level of Education Gender
70%
63.6%
Biden 60%
54.0% 53.0%
50% 45.9%
Trump 46.5% 47.6%
43.0% 43.7% 43.4%
40%
36.5% 36.5%
Other
30%
27.5%
20%
10%
6.9% 6.2% 6.4% 6.7% 5.6%
5.5%
0%
< 4-Year Degree > 4-Year Degree Female Male
CD1 CD2
• On November 3rd, Americans will vote for President. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
Presidential Election – Key Demographics

• Joe Biden leads in both of Maine’s Congressional Districts (by 17.5 percentage points
in CD1 and by 3.5 percentage points in CD2). His margin in CD2 is significantly lower
than in CD1.
• Those with a four-year degree or higher are significantly more likely to vote for Joe
Biden.
• Female voters also support Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a margin of 16.5
percentage points, while Biden’s margin of 4.2 percentage points with male voters is
much lower.
20
In the race for US Senator, Sara Gideon (D) is leading Susan Collins (R)
Senate Election by a margin of 7.1 percentage points statewide. The undecided level in
this race is low—6.4%.
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Sara Gideon (D) Susan Collins (R) Lisa Savage (I) Max Linn (I) Undecided
Total Vote
46.9% 39.8% 4.9% 2.0% 6.4%
Share
% Voting 45.3% 39.0% 4.7% 1.4%
% Leaning 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6%
• On November 3rd, Mainers will also cast votes for US Senator. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
Senate Election – Key Demographics

Total Support by District Total Support by Party Affiliation
Gideon Collins Savage Linn Gideon Collins Savage Linn
60% 90%
80.0% 81.6%
49.1% 80%
50%
44.7% 70%
41.8%
40% 37.8% 60%
50% 46.5%
30%
40%
34.4%
20% 30%
20% 12.6%
10%
13.8%
5.0% 4.7% 10% 5.5% 6.3%
1.4% 2.5% 3.8% 1.6%0.5%
0.3%
0% 0%
CD1 CD2 Democrats Independents Republicans

Senate Election – 2nd Choices

1st Choice • Notably, a plurality of those who
support each of the two Independent
Gideon Collins Savage Linn candidates in the race would support
(N=281) (N=239) (N=29) (N=12) the other Independent candidate as
their second choice:
Gideon 12.5% 31.5% 7.4%
• 38.9% of Lisa Savage supporters
2nd Choice
named Max Linn as their second

Collins 14.3% 12.5% 20.7%
choice. 62.4% of Max Linn supporters
named Lisa Savage as their second
Savage 35.4% 18.8% 62.4% choice.
Linn 12.8% 10.8% 38.9% • In the case of Lisa Savage's voters’

second choices, Sara Gideon receives
31.5% of these and Susan Collins
Don’t Know 37.5% 57.8% 17.1% 9.5%
receives 12.5%.
• Which candidate would be your second choice?
In this race, Chellie Pingree (D) is leading Jay Allen (R) by a margin of
CD1 Election 19.7 percentage points. There is an undecided factor of 10.7%.
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Chellie Pingree (D) Jay Allen (R) Undecided
Total Vote Share 54.5% 34.8% 10.7%

% Voting 53.9% 34.4%
% Leaning 0.6% 0.4%
• On November 3rd, Mainers will also vote for US Congressional Representatives. If today were Election Day, who would
you vote for?
CD1 Election – Key Demographics

Total Support by Income Total Support by Party
Pingree Allen Pingree Allen
80% 70%
69.2% 58.9%
70% 60%
60% 49.1%
50%
50% 47.2% 46.7% 42.1%
40%
40% 37.2% 35.7%
30% 27.6%
30%
28.2%
20%
20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
<$50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Female Male

you vote for?
In this race, Jared Golden (D) is leading Dale Crafts (R) by a margin of
CD2 Election 27.7 percentage points.
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jared Golden (D) Dale Crafts (R) Undecided
Total Vote Share 60.4% 32.7% 6.8%

% Voting 60.1% 31.3%
% Leaning 0.3% 1.4%
you vote for?
CD2 Election – Key Demographics

Total Support by Income Total Support by Party
Golden Crafts Golden Crafts
70% 100% 92.6%
64.2%
90%
60% 56.0% 55.0% 80%
71.9%
50%
68.2%
70%
39.8% 37.9% 60%
40%
50%
30%
28.4%
40%
20% 30% 24.1% 22.1%

20%
10%
10% 6.4%
0% 0%
<$50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Democrats Independents Republicans

you vote for?
Coronavirus Pandemic
28
Handling of the Coronavirus Pandemic – Approval Rating
President Donald Trump
39.6% of respondents rated President Trump’s handling of the ongoing coronavirus
pandemic as “very good” (17.4%) or “good” (22.2%), while 59.1% rated his handling as
“very poor” (49.9%) or “poor” (9.2%).
• 85.1% of Democrats, 65.4% of 60%

49.9%
Independents, and 21.9% of 50%
Republicans rate President Trump’s
40%
handling of the pandemic as “poor”
or “very poor.” 30%
22.2%
20% 17.4%
• 62.7% of female respondents and 9.2%
10%
55.8% of male respondents rated 1.3%
President Trump’s handling of the 0%
pandemic as “poor” or “very poor.” Very Good Poor Very Don't
good poor know
• How would you rate the way that President Trump has been handling the ongoing coronavirus pandemic? 29
Handling of the Coronavirus Pandemic – Approval Rating
Governor Janet Mills
In Maine, 68.2% of respondents rated Governor Mills’s handling of the ongoing
coronavirus pandemic as “very good” (27.8%) or “good” (40.4%), while 29.8% rated her
handling as “very poor” (14.7%) or “poor” (15.1%).
• 86.7% of Democrats, 74.2% of 50%

Independents, and 43.2% of 40.4%
40%
Republicans rate Governor Mills’s
handling of the pandemic as 30% 27.8%
“good” or “very good.”
20% 15.1% 14.7%
• 67.4% of female respondents and 10%
69.1% of male respondents rated 2.0%
Governor Mills’s handling of the 0%
pandemic as “good” or “very Very Good Poor Very Don't
good poor know
good.”
• How would you rate the way that Governor Mills has been handling the ongoing coronavirus pandemic? 30
Degree of Concern about Coronavirus Pandemic

73.9% of respondents rated themselves as “very” (36.0%) or “somewhat concerned” (37.9%)
that they, a family member, or a close friend would be infected with the coronavirus. 26.1%
rated themselves as “not concerned at all” (6.9%) or “not so concerned” (19.2%)
• 46.6%% of Democrats, 39.3% of
Independents, and 23.5% of
Very concerned 36.0%
Republicans rate themselves as “very
concerned.”
Somewhat concerned 37.9%
• In the most recent ABC News /
Not so concerned 19.2% Washington Post poll (conducted Oct.
6-9)1, 65% of respondents nationally
Not concerned at all rated themselves as “very” or
6.9%
“somewhat worried” that someone in
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% their immediate family could catch the
coronavirus.
• How concerned are you that you, a member of your immediate family, or a close friend will be infected with the coronavirus?
1Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/oct-6-9-2020-washington-post-abc-news-national-poll/e4e13300-1a85-4b08-ac26- 31
5975d0de0d51/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2
Interest in Being Vaccinated Against the Coronavirus

48.7% of respondents indicated that they “definitely” (24.7%) or “probably” (24.0%) would
not want to get vaccinated within the first month after a coronavirus vaccine was released if
that vaccine were released before the November election. 42.2% of respondents indicated
that they “definitely” (21.0%) or “probably” (21.2%) would want to get vaccinated.
Definitely would not get vaccinated 24.7%
Probably would not get vaccinated 24.0%
Probably would get vaccinated 21.2%
Definitely would get vaccinated 21.0%
Don't know 9.1%
0% 10% 20% 30%

• If a coronavirus vaccine were approved by the US FDA before the presidential election in November and was available
for free to everyone who wanted it, do you think that you would want to get vaccinated in the first month after it 32
becomes available for large-scale public use?
Other Issues
33
Preference Regarding the Presidential Election System

59.7% of respondents would prefer to change the current system by which the president is
elected so that the candidate who wins the most total votes nationwide wins the election,
while 32.3% would prefer to keep the current Electoral College system.
"Change the current "Keep the current system, in

system so that the which the candidate who wins
candidate who receives the most votes in the Electoral
the most total votes College wins the election"
nationwide wins the 32.3%
election"
59.7%
Don’t know
8.0%
• Thinking about the way in which the president is elected in this country, which would you prefer?
34
Support of the Black Lives Matter Movement

54.1% of respondents “strongly” (25.7%) or “somewhat” (28.4%) support the Black
Lives Matter movement, while 38.1% “strongly” (22.3%) or “somewhat” (15.8%)
oppose the movement.
30% 28.4%
• 46.4% of Democrats, 20.4% of 25.7%
Independents, and 9.5% of 22.3%
Republicans strongly support the
20%
movement. 15.8%
• 34.5% of those age 18-34, 30.3% of

10% 7.9%
those age 35-54, and 17.8% of
those age 55+ strongly support the
movement. 0%
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don't know
support support oppose oppose
• From what you’ve read and heard, how do you feel about the Black Lives Matter movement? 35
IV. Demographics of the Sample
36
Demographics of the Sample

Political Party Level of Education
Democrat 30.9%
High school diploma or less 34.8%
Republican 27.4%
Some college / 2-year degree 31.0%
Independent 36.1%
Four-year college degree or
33.8%
Other party 1.8% more
Don’t know / Prefer not to Prefer not to answer 0.4%

3.8%
answer
37

Age Household Income Level
Less than $25,000 21.1%
18-34 23.0%
$25,000 to under $50,000 27.6%
35-64 32.8% $50,000 to under $75,000 23.2%
$75,000 to under $100,000 13.8%

65+ 44.0%
$100,000 or more 12.1%
Prefer not to answer 0.2% Don’t know / Prefer not to

2.4%
answer
38

Gender Congressional District
Female 49.5% CD 1 50.0%
Male 49.8% CD2 50.0%
Non-binary 0.3%
Prefer not to answer 0.3%
39

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56TH OMNIBUS POLL

217 Commercial St.

#1 Ranked Maine-Based Pollster by

• A randomly selected sample of 600 Maine residents (“likely

➢ Are “certain,” “very likely,” or “likely” to vote in the

➢ Are ages 18 and older

➢ Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a

• The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples,

III. Pan Atlantic 56th Omnibus Poll Results:

National and State Political Climate

Intended Method of Voting

• 51.2% of Democrats said that they

• Do you plan to vote in person or by mail in the upcoming November elections?

Key Issues Facing the State of Maine – Top 3 Issues Combined

COVID-19 Pandemic 49.9%

Favorability Ratings (4-Point Scale)

Senator Angus King 33.8% 32.2% 14.9% 12.0% 7.2%

Governor Janet Mills 31.3% 28.5% 16.1% 21.9% 2.1%

Congressman Jared Golden [CD2

President Donald Trump 23.8% 17.5% 7.4% 50.7% 0.6%

Net Favorability (% Favorable - % Unfavorable)

Rep. Jared Golden

President Donald Trump -16.8

Net Favorability by District Net Favorability by District

Net Favorability Net Favorability

-10 -6.7 -10

70% Approve Disapprove Unsure

III. Pan Atlantic 56th Omnibus Poll Results:

2020 Elections Questions

• This methodology follows empirically validated polling best practices.

Total Vote Share 50.3% 39.7% 6.2% 3.8%

Presidential Election – Key Demographics

Presidential Election – Key Demographics

Senate Election – Key Demographics

CD1 CD2 Democrats Independents Republicans

Senate Election – 2nd Choices

named Max Linn as their second

Linn 12.8% 10.8% 38.9% • In the case of Lisa Savage's voters’

Total Vote Share 54.5% 34.8% 10.7%

CD1 Election – Key Demographics

<$50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Female Male

Total Vote Share 60.4% 32.7% 6.8%

CD2 Election – Key Demographics

20% 30% 24.1% 22.1%

<$50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Democrats Independents Republicans

III. Pan Atlantic 56th Omnibus Poll Results:

• 85.1% of Democrats, 65.4% of 60%

• 86.7% of Democrats, 74.2% of 50%

Degree of Concern about Coronavirus Pandemic

Interest in Being Vaccinated Against the Coronavirus

Definitely would not get vaccinated 24.7%

Probably would not get vaccinated 24.0%

Probably would get vaccinated 21.2%

Definitely would get vaccinated 21.0%

Don't know 9.1%

0% 10% 20% 30%

III. Pan Atlantic 56th Omnibus Poll Results:

Preference Regarding the Presidential Election System

"Change the current "Keep the current system, in

Support of the Black Lives Matter Movement

• 34.5% of those age 18-34, 30.3% of

IV. Demographics of the Sample

Demographics of the Sample

Don’t know / Prefer not to Prefer not to answer 0.4%