Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Carlyle A. Thayer
Japan’s PM Suga to Visit
Vietnam and Indonesia
October 1, 2020

We request your assessment of news reports that Japan’s new Prime Minister
Yoshihide Suga plans to visit Vietnam and Indonesia around mid-October.
Here are our questions:
Q1. Why has Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga chosen to visit Vietnam and Indonesia for
his first official overseas trip since taking office earlier this month?
ANSWER: Prime Minister Suga’s prospective visits to Vietnam and Indonesia are to
demonstrate continuity in Japan’s relations with Southeast Asia and give reassurance
of Suga’s continued support for former Prime Minister Abe’s free and open Indo-
Pacific.
PM Suga’s visit to these two countries is also recognition of their international and
regional roles. Vietnam is currently Chair of ASEAN, and will continue next year as non-
permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Indonesia is a member of
the Group of 20 and its term on the Security Council is about to end.
Q2. What explains the timing of the visit as it will take place amid growing tensions
between Tokyo’s main security ally the United States and its biggest trading partner
China, over trade, security and other issues?
ANSWER: It is precisely because of rising tensions between the United States and
China that PM Suga has chosen to make his first visit overseas to Indonesia and
Vietnam. Suga is staking out an independent leadership role for Japan at a time of
great strategic uncertainty about the future direction of the United States. In short,
Suga has chosen to be proactive rather than reactive.
Q3. Vietnam and Indonesia were also the first overseas destinations for former Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe after he assumed the post for the second time in December 2012.
Abe pursued closer economic and security ties. Will Suga follow his predecessor’s
policy on Vietnam?
ANSWER: All indications are that Suga, who is comparatively inexperienced in foreign
affairs, will follow in Abe’s footsteps. Because Abe visited Indonesia and Vietnam first
at the start of his second term this may have been a partial factor influencing Suga’s
decision.
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Japan has substantial economic relations with Vietnam. Vietnam is set to grow
economically and Suga wants to signal Japan’s continuing economic engagement with
that country.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Japan’s PM Suga to Visit Vietnam and

Indonesia,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 1, 2020. All background
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