KEY GRAPHS

© OECD/IEA - 2008
 World primary energy demand in the
Reference Scenario

6 000
Mtoe

Oil

5 000 Coal

Gas
4 000
Biomass

3 000 Nuclear

Hydro
2 000
Other
1 000 renewables

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average rate of increase
of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Incremental primary energy demand
in the Reference Scenario, 2006-2030

Coal
Africa
Oil
Latin America Gas
E. Europe/Eurasia Nuclear
Hydro
Other Asia Other
Middle East

OECD

India

China

- 500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000

Mtoe

The increase in China’s energy demand to 2030 – the result of its sheer market size &
stronger economic growth prospects – dwarfs that of all other countries & regions
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Change in oil demand by region in the
Reference Scenario, 2007-2030

OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD North America
Africa
E. Europe/Eurasia
Latin America
Other Asia
India
Middle East
China
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
mb/d

All of the growth in global oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing
43%, the Middle East 20% and other emerging Asian economies most of the rest
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Energy investment in the Reference
Scenario, 2007-2030
Coal Biofuels
3% <1%
$0.7 trillion $0.2 trillion

Power Oil Gas

52% 24% 21%
$13.6 trillion $6.3 trillion $5.5 trillion

Shipping
4% Shipping &
Refining ports
16% Transmission 9%
Transmission Power & distribution
Exploration &
& distribution generation 31%
development
50% 50% Exploration and 61%
LNG chain Mining
development
8% 91%
80%

Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure of $26.3 trillion is needed, but the

credit squeeze could delay spending – especially in the power sector
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Incremental world fossil-fuel
production in the Reference Scenario

25 Non-OECD
mb/d

1 600 3 000

Mtce
Bcm
OECD
1 400
20 2 500
1 200
2 000
15 1 000

800 1 500
10
600
1 000
400
5
500
200

0
1980-2007 2007-2030 1980-2006 2006-2030 1980-2006 2006-2030
- 200
Oil Gas Coal

Most of the incremental oil & gas comes from national companies in non-OECD countries,
resulting in major structural changes in the energy industry & increased imports in the OECD
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Average observed oilfield decline rate
by year of first production

16%
OPEC
14% Non-OPEC
12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
Pre-1970s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 - 2007

The production-weighted average decline rate worldwide is projected to rise from 6.7% in
2007 to 8.6% in 2030 as productions shifts to smaller oilfields, which tend to decline quicker
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 World oil production
in the Reference Scenario

120
mb/d

Natural gas liquids

Non-conventional oil
100
Crude oil - additional EOR
80
Crude oil - fields yet to be
found
60 Crude oil - fields yet to be
developed
Crude oil - currently
40 producing fields

20

0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Production reaches 104 mb/d in 2030, requiring 64 mb/d of gross capacity additions – six
times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth & counter decline
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 World oil & gas production by type of
company in the Reference Scenario

Oil Gas
120 4 500
mb/d

Bcm
100 3 750

80 3 000

60 2 250

40 1 500

20 750

0 0
2007 2015 2030 2006 2015 2030
NOCs Private companies

Close to 80% of the projected increase in output of both oil & gas comes from
national companies – on the assumption that investment is forthcoming
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Energy-related CO2 emissions in the
Reference Scenario
45
Gigatonnes

International
marine bunkers
40 and aviation
Non-OECD - gas
35
Non-OECD - oil
30 Non-OECD - coal
OECD - gas
25
OECD - oil
20 OECD - coal

15

10

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD
countries – three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Reductions in energy-related CO2
emissions in the climate-policy scenarios

45 550 450
Gigatonnes

Policy Policy
Scenario Scenario
40 CCS
Nuclear
Renewables & biofuels
35
Energy efficiency

30

25

20
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario

While technological progress is required to achieve some emissions reductions, increased

deployment of existing low-carbon technologies accounts for most of the CO2 savings
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 World greenhouse-gas emissions

60
Gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent
Energy CO2
F-gases
50 N2 O
Methane
Industry CO2
40
Land use CO2

30

20

10

0
2005 2020 2030 2020 2030 2030
Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy
Scenario

While energy-related CO2 will continue to dominate, there is strong potential to reduce other
emissions through improved efficiency, better farm management & reduced gas flaring
© OECD/IEA - 2008