Destructive Water: Water-Caused Natural Disasters, their Abatement and Control (Proceedings of the

Conference held at Anaheim, California, June 1996). IAHS Publ. no. 239, 1997.
193

Automated system of runoff forecasting for the

Amudarya River basin

N. A. AGALTSEVA, L. N. BOROVIKOVA &

V. G. KONOVALOV
SANIGMI of Glavgidromet, 72 ObservatorskayaStr., 700052 Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Abstract A mathematical model describing input of precipitation on the

watershed surface and its transformation into runoff is used for seasonal and
monthly forecasts of the discharge of the Amudarya River over the period
April-September. An independent component of the model is the estimation
of runoff from glaciers, which represents a considerable part of the water
yield of the Vakhsh and Pyandge rivers. Mathematical, physical, and
statistical models describing the seasonal cycle of accumulation of solid
precipitation and the snow and ice melting processes for the whole collection
of glaciers in the basin are used to estimate glacier runoff. Input information
for these models is: long-term data about runoff, 10-day sums and mean
values of precipitation and air temperature, total cloudiness, and a number of
generalized morphometric parameters of glaciers. The initial data of basic
observation points and one- and multidimensional analytical formulae are
used for the spatial interpolation of meteorological characteristics. The
whole of the automated system of forecasting consists of a set of programs
and databases for the personal computer. The programs have the following
functionalities: Adjustment of model parameters to the certain river basin,
optimization of transformed model parameters, computation and forecasting
of runoff. This modelling system is used at the Hydrometeorological Centre
of Republic of Uzbekistan.

INTRODUCTION

The most important characteristic of runoff formation in watersheds of the Aral Sea
basin is the strong dependence of all components of the water balance on orography
and altitude. The total area of runoff formation in the Amudarya River basin is about
200 000 km2 and in the Syrdarya River basin it is approximately 160 000 km2. The
region of runoff formation encompasses about 80% of the total area of the Syrdarya
and Amudarya River basins and this total area of runoff formation represents 20% of
the Aral Sea drainage basin. Improved hydrological forecasting in the Syrdarya and
Amudarya River basins for the April-September season is achieved by the
application of models that provide a description of the rivers runoff formation during
a year. Water sources feeding the central Asian rivers are: liquid precipitation,
melting of seasonal snow cover and long-term storage of glacial ice and firn. In the
model, channel transformation is considered to be negligible for seasonal and
monthly hydrological forecasts. Due to the absence of reliable weather forecasts for
April-September, the most simple version of runoff forecasting is used based on
taking the climatic averages of precipitation, air temperature and deficit of humidity
as inputs for the model.
194 N. A. Agaltseva et al.

DESCRIPTION OF RUNOFF MODEL

Computations of solid and liquid precipitation input on the surface of a

watershed

The model of snow cover formation in mountainous basins is based on the average
precipitation, including its dependence from altitude z and L—the characteristic of
macro-orography, i.e. p = p(z,L). This function p(z,L) can be expanded into a
Taylor series by assuming temporal stability of the coefficients k2 to k6:
p(z,L) = p(z0,L0)[l + k2(z-z0) + k3(z-z0f + k4(L-L0) + k5(L- L0f +
( )
+ k6(z-z0)(L-L0)]
Snow accumulation in a basin is computed as a balance between income and loss of
solid precipitation, taking into consideration water freezing inside the snow pack.
Subdivision of precipitation into solid and liquid phases is realized by means of an
empirical relation. Daily melting intensity is determined by the formula:
hm = a(T-T0)b
where T is temperature of air T = T(z), and a and b are parameters having seasonal
variability. For computing the snowmelt depth over a 10-day period Glazyrin (1985)
suggested the expression:
°exp(-?6T)2
h = an (2)
2n + 0.5an(T - TJQ. - erffo,.))
where n is number of days, a is root mean square deviation of air temperature for
10 days,

t„ =
aV2
T is the mean 10-day temperature, erf is the integral of Laplace, a is the parameter
of melting intensity, Tcr is the temperature when melting equals zero. The 10-day
depth of meltwater freezing, /^determined by the empirical formula:
hf = 1.55Wl0.9r-3

Computations of glacier runoff

For calculating total glacier melting, Vm, and glacier runoff, Wg„ the integrity of all
the glaciers in a drainage basin is considered unique. Depending on the size of a
basin, all the glaciers are divided into k groups, each group includes quasi-
homogeneous glaciers. In order to compute a hydrologie regime for the glaciers, we
used mathematical, physical, and statistical models of the accumulation and melting
processes of snow and ice, so that we could describe the annual cycle of the glacier
regime. The formula used in the regional model for calculation of the total volume of
 Automated system of runoffforecasting for the Amudarya River basin 195

glacier melting, vm(t), in the moment t, has the form:

v„, (0 = me {zim, t)Sm + m(z;, t)S, + m{zJ, t)Sf + m(zws, t)Sws + m(zss, t)Sxs (3)
Here mc = mf(hc) is the intensity of ice melt under the moraine cover (im), i is the
bare ice,/is the old firn, ws is the winter snow, ss is the summer snow, f(hc) is the
function of extinction of ice melting under the moraine cover with the thickness hc,
z is the mean weighted altitude for the area S of a specific type of glacier surface.
To obtain the data on the total melt volumes Vm and glacier melt runoff Wgl, it is
necessary to summarize the components:

^ = Iv„(0 (4)

^ = I v I B ( 0 + v / (0 + v / ( 0 (5)
du

where dbp and dep are the dates of the beginning and the end of the calculation period
respectively, dbi and dei are the dates of the beginning and the end of the icemelt
period. Computations of Vm and Wgl by the model described above (Konovalov, 1985)
includes method that provide a description of the glacier melting and runoff process.
These methods include the following:
(a) Local and regional formulae of melting intensity of snow, bare ice and ice under
moraine cover which were derived for the majority of central Asian glacial areas.
These formulae were carefully tested using independent data. The general form
of these formulae is M = M(Bk,T), where Bk is absorbed solar radiation and T is
air temperature. For calculating the ice melting intensity under moraine cover
were derived (Konovalov, 1985): a universal function of extinction of ice and
snowmelt intensity depending on moraine thickness; function of moraine
thickness distribution; and an equation for calculation of moraine mean thickness
at the termini of glaciers.
(b) A method to calculate the moments of beginning and end of the ice melting
period and glacier runoff formation, based on separate consideration of seasonal
snow line movement Zssl on the glaciers and in non-glacierized basins.
(c) A model for snow line movement, Zssl(t), on glacial surfaces during the ablation
period. With the absence of summer snowfalls, the change of altitude, Zssl, on the
glacier is taken to be proportional to the ratio between the melt layer at a certain
altitude, z^, at the current moment, t, and the whole melt layer from the moment
t0 till the end of ice melt period (dei - 1):

Zssl(0 = Zs,(t -1) + J}Z°0,0 àz(t -1) (6)

Zal(t0) = Z„ Az(t0) = Znm-Z0, àz(t-Y) = Zma-Zm(t-ï) (7)

Here t0 is the initial moment which is equal to the date of the beginning of the ice
melt period at the glacier snout, Ze is the altitude of the glacier snout, Zmax is the
maximum altitude of the seasonal snow line, Zm is the altitude of the winter snow
196 N. A. Agaltseva et al.

line on the glacier. In the equation the melt layer is replaced with the
approximating function of temperature T at altitude zm- l n m e case of solid
summer precipitation within the glacier limit, Zss,(f) is determined using the local
dependence of precipitation on altitude and the functions which determine the
type of precipitation.
(d) A new method was used to compute precipitation, air temperature and humidity
as a function of altitude and geographical coordinates as elaborated by
Konovalov & Karandaeva (1994) in order to spatially extrapolate basic
meteorological station data. Using this method, computation of annual
precipitation or air temperature for a point or group of glaciers with coordinates
z, 9, X, is a two-stage procedure: (i) horizontal extrapolation of a basic
meteorological station data x0(z0, %, X0) to the point x,(z0, <p,-, A,,-) within the same
mean altitude z0 and (ii) extrapolation of x,(z0, 9,, ^,) to the given altitude, z,
using an analytical approximation of the x-element vertical profile at the point
with coordinates x,(z0, cp;, A,,).
Different variants of the function of attenuation of global radiation in relation to
the amount of cloudiness were examined. Data on variability of the parameters of
these functions within the territory of central Asia in the altitude range from 100 m
to 4200 m a.s.l. were assessed.
For determining the albedo Ak the following are used:
(a) Mean values of Ak for major types of glacier surfaces (Konovalov, 1985),
(b) conclusions on the temporal stability of Ak for the homogeneous surface of
glaciers, and
(c) an experimental reduction function which describes Ak{f) variability in the area of
the glacier termini that depends on the ratio between the areas of solid moraine
and bare ice.
Utilization of the described model in the River Pjandge, Vakhsh, Surdarya basins
within the Pamir-Alay area showed good correspondence of computed parameters of
glacial hydrologie regime with estimates from other authors and also with glacier
mass balance measurements (Konovalov, 1985, Konovalov & Karandaeva, 1994).
The results of long-term time series of glacial runoff were used to improve the
methods of hydrologie forecasts.

Model of meltwater and rain input transformation into runoff

In the considered mathematical model (Borovikova et al, 1972) the river basin is
presented in the form of two parallel and consequently connected capacities. The first
is an analogue of an upper ground layer where relatively fast transformation of
snowmelt and rain water that enters the watershed surface take place. The second
layer describes transformation of water in deeper layers. It is assumed that the melted
input qm is directed entirely to enhance the upper layer water content. Rain input qr is
transformed rapidly into runoff and also feeds the upper layer. Outputs from the
upper zone are: evaporation E, inflow to the outlet of basin Qx and infiltration of
water to the lower zone Ql2. It is assumed that outputs from the lower zone are:
inflow to the outlet of basin Q2 and infiltration of water out of the basin boundaries
 Automated system of runoffforecasting for the Amudarya River basin 197

P. Runoff at the outlet of basin is considered as sum: Q(t) = Qfi) + Q2(t) + Qmin,
where Qmin is the mean long-term minimum runoff. Qmin equals the baseflow during
winter time. Operation of the two-zone system is described by differential equations:
d^
••q-E-Qi-Q,
àt
dm „ (8)
Q.2-Q:
àt
where W{ and W2 are the water content of the upper and lower zones, q is input of
meltwater and rain water: Qx = qW,; QU2 = cU2W^; Q2 = c2W2; P = c2fiW2, where
c
i> ci,2> c2> c2,o a r e parameters of transformation. Computation of evaporation is
fulfilled by the formula:

£, — £.{, 1-expl-^ (9)

where E0 = KD is potential rate of evaporation, K is a parameter, and D is deficit of

humidity:

D(z,t) = D(z0,t)exp[-~j (10)

where D(z0,t) is deficit of humidity at the sea level, a is a parameter. Numerical

realization of the transformation model is done in two stages: (i) Optimization of
parameters cu c12, c2 and c20 by the Rosenbrock-Story method and (ii) computation
of a 10-day hydrograph. Optimizations use the root mean square deviation of
computed minus measured water discharges. The other parameters that are used in
the models are estimated from empirical data.

METHODS AND TECHNOLOGY OF RUNOFF FORECASTING

Development of the forecasting method for each basin on the basis of the considered
model includes the following stages:
(a) analysis of the conditions of runoff formation,
(b) preparation of maps,
(c) numerical description of fields of precipitation, air temperature, and humidity
deficit, and determination of extrapolation formulae parameters,
(d) computation of rain, melted snow, and glacial input,
(e) determination of transformation parameters separately for years with mean and
extreme values of water yield,
(f) computation of a runoff hydrograph and an estimate of its quality by dependent
and independent data.
Climatic values of meteorological elements or forecast anomalies of air temperature
and precipitation are used as initial information for runoff computation and
forecasting. Long-range forecasts provide a modelling base in order to analyse
different scenarios of runoff formation in a basin. This scenario development is
198 N. A. Agaltseva et al.

especially important in years with extreme weather conditions in the winter and
summer seasons.
The automated information system of hydrological forecasts (AISHF) was
developed (Agaltseva & Pack, 1994) for practical applications of mathematical
modelling of runoff hydrographs. This system includes (Fig. 1) a hydrometeorology
database and specialized software. The software serves the three main functions of

Automated
Informational System I
of Hydrological
Forecasts (AISHK) j

Bank of
Hydrometcorological
Data

Model of Snow Cover

Model of Glacial Runoff
Formation

Estimations of total Input

(snowmelt,icemelt,rain)

Fig. 1 The AISHF system.

 Automated system of runoffforecasting for the Amudarya River basin 199

the AISHF system: (a) improvement in hydrograph prediction, (b) runoff forecasting
methods for mountainous rivers, providing operational hydrological forecasts for any
time period, and (c) interactive analysis of previous, current and future hydrological
conditions in a basin.
The database consists of two main groups of information: (a) physiographical
characteristics of river basins including numerical descriptions of relief, parameters
of meteorological fields, and parameters of the transformation model, and (b) hydro-
meteorological information including measured values of precipitation, air
temperature, water discharges at network of points and calculated results such as
adjusted values of precipitation and air temperature, altitude of seasonal snow line,
input of rain and melted water to the watershed, and glaciers runoff. Information in
the database is categorized by areal criteria. The largest areal unit is a region of 1000
to 10 000 km2.
In the first version of AISHF three main regions in the Syrdarya River basin
were included: the Chirchik-Akhangaran basin, the Alay range (northern slope), and
the Fergana range (southwestern slope). The system was expanded later by splitting
the Amudarya River basin into separate regional river basins: the Zeravshan, the
Vakhsh, the Pyandge, the Kafirnigan. Each region is part of the main river basin and
together they compose the total hydrologie basin. Each region is divided into
computational nodes for model application.
Long-range forecasts of water inflow to the Nurek reservoir on the Vakhsh River
is most important for the economy development of Tadjikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan where there is a condition of extremely restricted water resources.
Application of AISHF system for the Vakhsh River basin made it possible to improve

Table 1 Quality estimations of computations and forecasts of water inflow into the Nurek reservoir.
Months Long range forecasts: One-month forecasts:
S/a P% Term of forecast S/a P%
(months)
April 0.7 72 1 0.7 72
May 0.7 70 2 0.8 69
June 0.6 79 3 0.8 66
July 0.6 80 4 0.6 72
August 0.6 86 5 0.8 66
September 0.7 82 6 0.7 80
April-September 0.3 100 6 0.3 92
Notes: S/a is relative root mean square error, P% is reliability. Computations and forecasts of runoff
are started at 1 April.

Table 2 Distribution of runoff forecasts reliability in separate months.

Ranges P% April May June July August September April-September
>90 1 1 1 2 - 2 2
80-90 7 7 6 4 4 4 6
70-79 3 2 4 5 6 3 5
60-79 - 1 6 5 4 4 2
<60 _ 3 1 _ 2 2 _
200 N. A. Agaltseva et al.

the quality of hydrological forecasts substantially and to meet the information needs
of the users of the water resources. The reliability of the monthly runoff forecasts for
The Vakhsh River are presented in the Table 1. Reliability is considered here as the
relation of the number of successful forecasts to their total quantity. Table 2
illustrates the reliability of forecasts for the April-September season in total and for
separate months. At present the Hydrometeorologic Centre of the Uzbekistan
Republic releases runoff forecasts by the considered methods for 16 hydrological
objects in the Syrdarya River basin, including large reservoirs. The correspondence
between measured, computed, and forecast values of the Vakhsh River runoff in a

A ••"'''•

1987 A\ /^••*''/^_
250-

A
/ / \\
200-

150-

100-

50-
n
^ 3_ 1 1 1 ~L \ I1 -a M\ \ 1i irugn-aru
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Numbers of ten days
350

131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536
Numbers of ten days

measured discharge computed by model forecasted by model

[ | snow-melt input rain input ice-melt input

Fig. 2 Ten-day average hydrograph for the River Vakhsh, the long-range forecasts
(forecasted) and the 1-month forecast (computed) as computed by the model for the
years 1987 and 1988.
 Automated system of runoffforecasting for the Amudarya River basin 201

characteristic year are illustrated in Fig. 2. Figure 2 also illustrates the distribution of
the main sources of streamflow through time.

PRESENT STATE AND PROSPECT OF COOPERATION AT THE

FORECASTING OF WATER RESOURCES

At present, the Hydrometeorological centre of Glavgidromet of Uzbekistan releases

hydrologie forecasts for the Syrdarya and Amudarya River basins. The main users of
these forecasts are: Governmental bodies, institutions of water economy and
management, hydropower stations, agriculture, and shipping. Initial information in
these forecasts are measurements of discharges, air temperature, precipitation, etc.
within areas of runoff formation which are located at the territories of the Kirgyzstan
and Tadjikistan Republics. After the disintegration of the USSR and as a result of the
current economic troubles there is an increasing deficit of information for making
hydrological forecasts such as river flows. This is especially true in the Tadjikistan
territory. The network of meteorological points within the areas of Syrdarya and
Amudarya runoff formation have been reduced as a whole by 30-50%. And there are
basins (e.g. Zeravshan River) where upstream runoff measurements were ceased
entirely. In the upper watersheds of the Syrdarya at Kirgizstan territory, ground and
airborne snow measurements were stopped. The network of snow cover ground
measurements in the Amudarya River basin was also reduced significantly. Drastic
measures are needed now, in order to provide at least a minimum level of
information for hydrologie forecasts.
The following is proposed:
(a) To support the data collection activity at a limited number of basic
meteorological points in order to provide data for the spatial and temporal
extrapolation of precipitation and air temperature in the runoff formation areas of
the Syrdarya and Amudarya, using the method described in this paper.
(b) To provide broad applications of radio-controlled monitors and satellite
information for operational estimations of air temperature, precipitation, snow
cover parameters, and to observe the fluctuation of the central Asian glaciers.
(c) To update systems of collection, processing and dissemination of
hydrometeorological data. It is recommended that the Aral Sea basin be included
in the program of global monitoring network as planned by WMO (WHYCOS,
HYCOS). Implementation of the listed suggestions could be charged to
Glavgidromet of Uzbekistan.

REFERENCES
Agaltseva, N. A. & Pack, A. V. (1994) Automated long-range forecasts of runoff of central Asian mountainous rivers.
In: Cybernetics Issues, 112-124. Publishing House of Academy of Sciences, Tashkent.
Borovikova, L. N., Denisov, Yu. M. et al. (1972) Mathematical Modelling of Runoff Processes of Mountainous Rivers.
Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad.
Glazyrin, G. E. (1985) Distribution and Regime of Mountainous Glaciers. Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad.
Konovalov, V. G. (1985) Glaciers Melting and Runoff in the River Basins of Central Asia. Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad.
Konovalov, V. G. & Karandaeva, L. M. (1994) Computation of regional characteristics of the glacial regime using a
model with distributed parameters. In: FRIEND: Flow Regime from International Experimental and Network Data
(ed. by P. Seuna, A. Gustard, N. W. Arnell & G. A. Cole) (Proc. Braunschweig Conf., October 1993), 511-518.
IAHSPubl. no. 221.