Controlling Weapons Proliferation - Syllabus

Harvard University
John F. Kennedy School of Government

IGA-321: Controlling Weapons Proliferation
Spring 2011
Prof. Matthew Bunn
And William Tobey
Time: Monday and Wednesday, 10:10-11:30
Location: Littauer 332
Objective
The global effort to stem the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons is fundamental
to international security. But this effort is now under severe stress. This course offers an in-
depth overview of policies and institutions intended to prevent proliferation of these weapons
and keep them out of terrorist hands, what can be done to strengthen these efforts, and what can
be done to limit the risk when proliferation does occur. The primary focus is on nuclear
weapons, but chemical and biological arms and ballistic missiles are also addressed. The course
explores (a) the technologies of these weapons; (b) the wide range of policy tools available for
preventing proliferation; (c) approaches to responding to proliferation when it does occur,
including deterrence, military strikes, and defenses; and (d) how these issues interact with
broader national and international policies. Policy choices relating to North Korea, Iran, nuclear
terrorism, black-market nuclear technology networks, the future of nuclear energy, and nuclear
arms reductions are explored in depth.
The purpose of nonproliferation policies is to reduce the risks to national and international
security posed by the spread of these weapons. Hence this course will employ a risk
management framework, helping students understand how policymakers make judgments about
which policies will result in the lowest overall security risks, considering the probability of
various successful and unsuccessful outcomes and their consequences. Making these judgments
requires an understanding of the underlying technologies; of the policy tools available and their
records of success or failure; and of decision-making in the states these policies are attempting to
influence. By the end of this course, students will have a grounding in these topics and
experience in making difficult choices between nonproliferation policy options along with trade-
offs between competing goals, preparing them to take part in nonproliferation policymaking.
This is a discussion-based class, and class participation is very important. To be able to
participate in the discussion, students are expected to have done the reading before each class.
Office Hours
Professor Bunn’s office hours will be 2:00-3:30 on Mondays and Wednesdays in L339C. Will
Tobey’s office hours will be 10-11:30 on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Office hour sign-up sheets
will be posted on their doors. To make the best use of the available time, please give Ashley
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 2
Gagné (for Professor Bunn) or Mary Crowley (for Mr. Tobey) a short note specifying the issues
you would like to discuss. Ashley Gagné, Belfer 302A, 617-495-8850,
ashley_gagne@hks.harvard.edu; Mary Crowley, Littauer 339, 617-495-8806,
mary_crowley@hks.harvard.edu). Kate Glynn will be the course assistant for the class
(kate_glynn@hks11.harvard.edu).
Assignments and Grading
There are seven assignments for this course. The first assignment is a problem set intended to
familiarize students with some of the key numbers associated with nuclear weapons production
and effects, and how they might influence policy choices. Three of the other assignments are
policy memos laying out options and making a recommendation related to a particular policy
problem that will be provided in class. Two of the assignments are participation in class
simulations, one focused on nuclear negotiations with Iran and the other focused on U.S.
interagency decision-making with respect to Syria. Students will receive somewhat different
assignments for the simulations, depending on the roles they are to play. Detailed instructions
will be given the week before the simulations. Students should be advised that there will be
extra homework during the week of the simulations, and that a short reflection must be written
by the due-dates below. The final assignment is a take-home final exam.
Written assignments must be posted to the course web page by 5:00 p.m. on the dates listed
below. Late papers will receive reduced grades, except in exceptional circumstances approved
by the professor.
#1: 7 February Problem set (5% of course grade)
#2: 23 February First recommendation memo (10%)
#3: 7-9 March First simulation exercise (15%)
#4: 4 April Second recommendation memo (group) (10%)
#5: 18 April Third recommendation memo (group) (10%)
#6: 25 April Second simulation exercise (10%)
#7: April 27 Take-home final exam (25%)
The last 15% of the course grade will be based on participation in class discussion.
Expectations and Readings
The Kennedy School is a professional school, training professionals. As such, students are
expected to: attend all classes; be on time; submit assignments on time; be respectful of each
other and of the instructors; and do their best to prepare professional products for their
assignments. Students are only permitted to have computers in class for the purpose of taking
notes; having a laptop open will greatly increase a student’s chance of getting a sudden question
from the professor. As noted above, students are expected to have read the required readings
before class – many of the classes will be discussions of issues raised in the readings.
Recommended readings represent additional resources that may be useful for students
particularly interested in a particular topic, but reading them is not required.
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 3
Most of the course readings are available on the internet. Those that are not will be available in a
packet from the Course Materials Office. While there is no textbook for this course, an excellent
general resource on proliferation is Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar,
Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, 2nd Ed. (Washington, D.C.:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005). An equally excellent overview of U.S.
nuclear weapons policy and its intersections with the nonproliferation is provided in George
Bunn and Christopher F. Chyba, eds., U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: Confronting Today’s
Threats (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2006).1 Both of these will be on reserve in the HKS
library. Students who are particularly interested may consider purchasing them.
An Important Reminder About Citing Sources: Students must be familiar with and observe
Kennedy School and Harvard rules regarding the citation of sources. Any sentences or
paragraphs taken verbatim from the writing of (or interviews with) any other person or persons,
or from your own writing that has been published elsewhere, must be placed in quotation marks
and its source must be identified with a footnote or endnote that includes the usual bibliographic
information: author’s name, title of article or chapter, venue (book, journal, magazine, website,
report, thesis, term paper, private letter), date, and page numbers if applicable. Changing the
wording of a sentence or passage slightly does not evade the requirement for citation (nor reduce
the chance of detection). Indeed, whenever you are drawing an important argument or insight
from someone else, even if you reword it into your own words, a reference to the source is
required. All of these requirements also apply to material taken from websites. Including
material from others in assignments, exams, or term papers without appropriate quotation marks
and citations is regarded, as a matter of School and University policy, as a serious violation of
academic and professional standards and can lead to a failing grade in the course, failure to
graduate, and even expulsion from the University.
Proliferation News Sources
In class, we will frequently be discussing events in the news, and students should keep up with at
least the biggest news stories unfolding relating to nonproliferation. (In some cases, a news story
to be discussed will be distributed before class.) Particularly useful sources for proliferation-
related news include:
Proliferation News. Prepared by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s

nonproliferation program, this source alone will allow students to keep up with the most
important nonproliferation news. Students can sign up for the free e-mail service, or go to the
website at http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/.
Global Security Newswire. Prepared by National Journal on contract to the Nuclear Threat
Initiative, this is a daily news service summarizing the news of the day relating to nuclear,
chemical, and biological weapons. Available at http://www.nti.org
1
For those of you who may be curious, yes, there is a relation – George Bunn is Matthew Bunn’s father. He was
one of the senior U.S. negotiators of the Nonproliferation Treaty.
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 4
ArmsControlWonk. Founded by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (former executive director of the HKS
Managing the Atom project), this blog provides in-depth commentary and analysis on a variety
of nonproliferation developments. http://www.armscontrolwonk.com
IAEA Daily Press Review. Provides links to news stories from around the world related to the
IAEA, or to nuclear energy and proliferation. Refreshed each working day, and no archive is
maintained. http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Dpr/pressreview.html
Partnership for Global Security Nuclear News. Compiles full text of selected news stories
related to nuclear security and nonproliferation. The Partnership for Global Security maintains
an archive of past issues, useful for research on past events. Available at
http://www.partnershipforglobalsecurity.org
Each of these websites also provides a variety of other information that may be useful for
students preparing papers and the like.
Class Schedule
Date: Subject:
24 Jan Why this course matters: Nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and
global security in a risk-based framework (Bunn and Tobey)
26 Jan Nuclear weapons design and construction, nuclear materials, nuclear
effects (Bunn)
31 Jan Nuclear materials production, safeguards, threats, and diplomacy: Case 1:
North Korea, 1992-94 (Tobey)
2 Feb Why states decide to get, or not to get, nuclear weapons (Bunn)
7 Feb Deterrence and its risks (Tobey)
9 Feb The Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the nonproliferation regime (Bunn)
14 Feb Chemical and biological weapons and their control (guest)
16 Feb Nuclear safeguards and verification (Bunn)
23 Feb Nuclear energy and proliferation (Bunn)
28 Feb Isolation vs. diplomacy: Case 2: North Korea 2001-2010 (Tobey)
2 March Sanctions, diplomacy, and military options: Case 3: Iran (Bunn)
7 March Simulation: Negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program
9 March Simulation: Negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program (cont.)
14 March Spring Break
16 March Spring Break
21 March Black-market technology transfer: Case 4: The A.Q. Khan Network
(Tobey)
23 March States outside the NPT: India, Pakistan, Israel (Bunn)
28 March Nonproliferation successes: Libya, Argentina-Brazil, South Africa, and
more (Tobey)
30 March Tools beyond treaties: cooperative threat reduction, UNSCR 1540,
Proliferation Security Initiative, Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear
Terrorism, and more (Tobey)
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 5
4 April Preventing nuclear terrorism (Bunn)

6 April Delivery systems and missile defenses (Tobey)
11 April Preemptive and preventive attacks (Bunn)
13 April Nuclear weapons policy for the future (Bunn and Tobey)
18 April Nuclear arms reductions and disarmament (Bunn)
20 April Processes for making nonproliferation decisions (Bunn and Tobey)
25 April Decision-making simulation: policy toward Syria (Bunn and Tobey)
27 April Summing up: stemming the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological
weapons (Bunn and Tobey)
24 January: Why this course matters: Nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and
global security
Required reading:
Remarks by President Barack Obama, Haradcany Square, Prague, Czech Republic, April 5,
2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-By-President-Barack-Obama-In-
Prague-As-Delivered/
James Kitfield, “Obama's Nuclear Gambit: Complex Calculus Governs Doomsday Weapons”,
Global Security Newswire, April 16, 2010, http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20100416_2142.php
Recommended reading:
Graham Allison, “Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats,” Foreign Affairs, http://ezp-
prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&A
N=48780602&site=ehost-live&scope=site
Joseph Cirincione, Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons (New York:
Columbia, 2007). (This book is on reserve at the HKS library.)
Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express: a Political History of the Bomb
and its Proliferation (Osceola, WI: Zenith Press, 2009)
Ashton B. Carter, “How to Counter WMD,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2004,
http://ezp-
26 January: Nuclear weapons design and construction, nuclear materials, nuclear effects
Required reading:
International Panel on Fissile Materials, “Appendix: Fissile Materials and Nuclear Weapons,” in
Global Fissile Materials Report 2008: Scope and Verification of a Fissile Material (Cutoff)
Treaty (Princeton, N.J.: IPFM, 2008), http://www.ipfmlibrary.org/gfmr08.pdf, pp. 102-109.
Office of Technology Assessment, “Technical Aspects of Nuclear Proliferation,” in
Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: OTA, December
1993), pp. 119-129, 149-158. http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/ota/9344.html
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 6
Office of Technology Assessment, The Effects of Nuclear War (Washington, DC: OTA, May
1979), http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk3/1979/7906/7906.PDF, pp. 15-46
Alan Robock, “Climate Effects of a Regional Nuclear Conflict,” IPRC Climate, Vol. 7, No. 1,
2007, pp. 16-18. http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/iprc_climate_NW.pdf (other presentations
of these results available at http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/).
John P. Holdren and Matthew Bunn, “Technical Background,” in NTI Research Library:
Securing the Bomb, http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/overview/technical.asp
Donald R. Cotter, “Peacetime Operations: Safety and Security,” in Ashton B. Carter, John D.
Steinbruner, and Charles A. Zraket, eds., Managing Nuclear Operations (Washington, D.C.:
Brookings, 1987), section on pp. 42-53 [useful description of devices to prevent unauthorized
detonation of nuclear weapons]
Samuel Glasstone and Phillip J. Dolan, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, 3rd Ed. (Washington,
D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense and Energy Research and Development Administration,
1977), http://www.fissilematerials.org/ipfm/site_down/gla77.pdf.
Alexander Glaser, “Nuclear Weapons Effects” [lecture slides],
http://www.princeton.edu/~aglaser/lecture2007_weaponeffects.pdf
Frederic Solomon, M.D., and Robert Q. Marston, M.D., The Medical Implications of Nuclear
War (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1986), esp. Theodore Postol, Chapter 1,
“Possible Fatalities from Superfires Following Nuclear Attacks in or near Urban Areas,”
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=940&page=15
Lynn Eden, Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons
Devastation (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell, 2006).
31 January: Nuclear material production, safeguards, threats, and diplomacy: Case 1:

North Korea, 1992-1994
Required Reading:
“Standing at the Brink in North Korea: The Counterproliferation Imperative,” in Ashton B.
Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1999), pp. 123-142. (on course page)
“Carrots, Sticks, and Question Marks: Negotiating the North Korean Crisis (A)” Harvard
Kennedy School Case C18-95-1297.0, 39 pp.
“Carrots, Sticks, and Question Marks: Negotiating the North Korean Crisis (B)” Harvard
Houston G. Wood, Alexander Glaser, and R. Scott Kemp, “The Gas Centrifuge and Nuclear
Weapons Proliferation,” Physics Today, pp. 40-45 http://ptonline.aip.org/journals/doc/PHTOAD-
ft/vol_61/iss_9/40_1.shtml
Recommended Reading:
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 7
Office of Technology Assessment, “Technical Aspects of Nuclear Proliferation,” in

1993), pp. 129-149. http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/ota/9344.html
Peter Zimmerman, “Proliferation: Bronze Medal Technology is Enough,” Orbis Vol. 38, No. 1
(Winter 1994), pp, 67-83 http://ezp-
prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=mth&
AN=9409027514&site=ehost-live&scope=site
Daniel B. Poneman, Joel S. Wit, and Robert L. Gallucci, Going Critical: The First North Korean
Nuclear Crisis (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2004).
Leon V. Sigal, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy With North Korea (Princeton:
Princeton University Press, 1998), esp. pp. 90-123, 150-161, 184-191.
William J. Perry, Review of United States Policy Toward North Korea: Findings and
Recommendations (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, 12 October 1999),
http://www.state.gov/www/regions/eap/991012_northkorea_rpt.html
C. Kenneth Quinones, “Back to the Future” (Review of Marion Creekmore, A Moment of Crisis:
Jimmy Carter, The Power of a Peacemaker, and North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions), Arms
Control Today, August 2006, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_12/BookReview
Michael J. Mazarr, “Going Just a Little Nuclear: Nonproliferation Lessons from North Korea,”
International Security, Vol. 20, No. 2 (Fall 1995), 92–122.
Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang, Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies
(New York: Columbia, 2005) 280 pp.
2 February: Why states decide to get, or not to get, nuclear weapons

Required reading:
Scott Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb,”
International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3, Winter 1996/1997 pp 54-86. (on course page)
Matthew Bunn, “Realist, Idealist, and Integrative Approaches to Proliferation Policy”
(unpublished, 2003)
Jacques E. C. Hymans, “The Study of Nuclear Proliferation and Nonproliferation: Toward a New
Consensus?” in Willam C. Potter and Eaukhar Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear
Proliferation in the 21st Century: The Role of Theory: Vol. 1 (Stanford: Stanford University
Press, 2010), pp. 13-37.
Jim Walsh, Bombs Unbuilt: Power, Ideas, and Institutions in International Politics, unpublished
Ph.D. dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2001.
http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/8237
Mitchell Reiss, Bridled Ambition: Why States Constrain Their Nuclear Capabilities (Washington
D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1995), esp. Chapter 7, “Conclusion,” pp. 321-333.
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 8
William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, “Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review

Essay,” International Security, Vol. 33, No. 1, Summer 2008, pp. 139-169.
Ariel E. Levite, “Never Say Never Again: Nuclear Reversal Revisited,” International Security,
Vol. 27, No. 3, Winter 2002/2003, pp. 59-88.
Sonali Singh and Christopher R. Wray, “The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation,” Journal of
Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 6 (2004), pp. 859-885.
7 February: Deterrence and its risks

Required Reading:
Thomas C. Schelling and Morton H. Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control (1985 ed.)
(Washington, D.C.: Pergamon-Brassey’s, 1985), pp. 9-31. (Originally published in 1961.)
Jeffrey Lewis, “Minimum Deterrence,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 64, No. 3
(July/August 2008), pp. 38-41
http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2008/minimum_deterrence_7552
Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, “The Nukes We Need: Preserving the American Deterrent,”
Foreign Affairs, Vol. 88, No. 6 (November/December 2009), pp. 39-51.
http://www.alternatewars.com/BBOW/ABC_Weapons/TheNukesWeNeed.pdf
(Also recommended: The exchange of letters over this article in the March/April 2010 issue,
http://ezp-
N=48191962&site=ehost-live&scope=site)
Vipin Narang, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Posture: Implications for South Asian Stability,” Policy Brief
(Cambridge, Mass.: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy
School, January 2010).
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Pakistans_Nuclear_Posture_policy_brief.pdf
Robert S. McNamara, “Forty Years After 13 Days,” Arms Control Today, November 2002 (with
additional oral history and documents) at “The Cuban Missile Crisis: Revisited on the
Anniversary,” http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_11/cubanmissile
Bruce G. Blair, “A Rebuttal of the U.S. Statement on the Alert Status of U.S. Nuclear Forces”
(Washington, D.C.: Center for Defense Information, 6 November 2007)
http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.cfm?documentID=4135
Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 1994), Chapter 14, “Nuclear Threats and Nuclear Weapons,” pp. 348-368.
(This book is on reserve at the HKS library.)
Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, Beyond Nuclear Deterrence: Transforming the U.S.-
Russian Equation (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006)
Albert Wohlstetter, “The Delicate Balance of Terror,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 2, January
1959. http://ezp1.harvard.edu/login?url=http://proquest.umi.com.ezp-
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 9
prod1.hul.harvard.edu/pqdweb?did=66761839&sid=3&Fmt=6&clientId=11201&RQT=309&V
Name=PQD
McGeorge Bundy, “To Cap the Volcano,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 48, No. 1, October 1969,
http://ezp-
Steve Coll, “The Stand-Off,” New Yorker, 13 February 2006, pp.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/02/13/060213fa_fact_coll?printable=true
Vipin Narang, “Posturing for Peace? Pakistan’s Nuclear Postures and South Asian Stability,”
International Security, Vol. 34, No. 3 (Winter 2009/2010), pp. 38-78.
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Narang.pdf
Peter R. Lavoy and Maj. Steven A. Smith, “The Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear Use Between India
and Pakistan,” Strategic Insight, 3 February 2003,
http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers/ccc/publications/OnlineJournal/2003/feb03/southAsia2.h
tml
Roger Speed and Michael May, “Assessing the United States’ Nuclear Posture,” in George Bunn
and Christopher F. Chyba, eds., U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: Confronting Today’s Threats
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2006), pp. 248-296.
Keith B. Payne et al., Rationale and Requirements for U.S. Nuclear Forces, Vol. I (Fairfax, Va:
National Institute for Public Policy, January 2001); at:
http://www.nipp.org/National%20Institute%20Press/Archives/Publication%20Archive%20PDF/
volume%201%20complete.pdf
Keith B. Payne, “The Nuclear Posture Review: Setting the Record Straight,” Washington
Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 135-151 http://ezp-
Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1966)
Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 3rd Ed. (Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave
MacMillan, 2003)
Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993)
Charles L. Glaser, Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press,
1990)
9 February: The Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the global nonproliferation regime
Required Reading:
“Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons”
http://www.un.org/events/npt2005/npttreaty.html
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 10
George Bunn, “The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime and Its History,” Chapter 3 in George
Bunn and Christopher Chyba, eds., U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: Confronting Today’s Threats
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2006), pp. 75-125 (on course page).
Graham T. Allison, “Flight of Fancy,” in Annals of the American Academy of Political and
Social Science, Vol. 607 (September 2006), pp. 167-202, http://www.jstor.org.ezp-
prod1.hul.harvard.edu/stable/25097846
Jim Walsh, “Learning From Past Success: The NPT and the Future of Non-Proliferation,” No. 41
(Stockholm: Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, October 2005),
http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/no41.pdf
Allison Kelly, “NPT: Back on Track,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2010
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_07-08/kelly
2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear
Weapons, Final Document, NPT/CONF.2010/50 (Vol. 1)
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=NPT/CONF.2010/50%20(VOL.I)
Decisions of the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference:
• Strengthening the Review Process for the Treaty,
http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/1995-NPT/pdf/NPT_CONF199532.pdf
• Principles and Objectives for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament,
• Extension of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
2000 NPT Review Conference Final Document,
http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/2000-NPT/2000NPTDocs.shtml, esp. pp. 13-15
John Bolton, “The NPT: A Crisis of Non-Compliance,” Statement to the 3rd Plenary Session of
the Prepatory Committee for the 2005 Review Conference on the Treaty on the Non-
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 27 April 2004,
http://merln.ndu.edu/archivepdf/wmd/State/31848.pdf
George Bunn, “The NPT: Banning Transfers of Nuclear Weapons Takes Two Decades,” and
“The NPT Finally Brings Widespread International Safeguards on Reactors,” in Arms Control by
Committee: Managing Negotiations with the Russians (Stanford: Stanford University Press,
1992)
Lewis A. Dunn, “On Proliferation Watch: Some Reflections on the Past Quarter Century,”
Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Spring-Summer 1998), pp. 59-77,
http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/dunn53.pdf
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 11
14 February: Chemical and biological weapons and their control (guest lecture)
Required Reading:
“Biological and Chemical Weapons, Agents, and Proliferation,” in Joseph Cirincione, Jon B.
Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats,
2nd Ed. (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005), pp. 57-82
“Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, and Stockpiling of
Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction”
http://www.opbw.org/convention/documents/btwctext.pdf
Arms Control Association, “The Chemical Weapons Convention at a Glance” (Washington,
D.C.: ACA, October 2008) http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/cwcglance
Matthew Meselson and Julian Perry Robinson, “A Draft Convention to Prohibit Biological and
Chemical Weapons Under International Criminal Law,” Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Vol.
28, No. 1, Winter 2004, pp. 57-72, http://fletcher.tufts.edu/forum/archives/pdfs/28-
1pdfs/Meselson.pdf
Richard Danzig, “Catastrophic Bioterrorism – What is to be Done?” (Washington, D.C.: Center
for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, August 2003)
http://biotech.law.lsu.edu/blaw/general/danzig01.pdf
Milton Leitenberg, “Bioterrorism: Hyped,” Los Angeles Times, 17 February 2006.
http://articles.latimes.com/2006/feb/17/opinion/oe-leitenberg17
“Technical Aspects of Chemical Weapons Proliferation,” (pp. 15-69) and “Technical Aspects of
Biological Weapons Proliferation,” (pp. 71-117) in Office of Technology Assessment,
1993) http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/ota/9344.html
Tara O’Toole, “Six Years After Anthrax: Are We Better Prepared to Respond to Bioterrorism?”
testimony to the U.S. Senate, Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, 23
October 2007 http://www.upmc-
biosecurity.org/website/resources/hearings/content/Hearings_2007/20071023_sixyearsafteranthr
ax.pdf
Milton Leitenberg, Assessing the Biological Weapons and Biological Terrorism Threat (Carlisle,
Penn: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, December 2005)
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB639.pdf
John Steinbruner, Elisa D. Harris, Nancy Gallagher, Stacy M. Okutani, Controlling Dangerous
Pathogens: A Prototype Protective Oversight System (College Park, Md: Center for International
and Security Studies at Maryland, University of Maryland, March 2007)
http://www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/pathogens_project_monograph.pdf
Michael Osterholm, “Unprepared for a Pandemic,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 2. March/April
2007, http://www.cfr.org/publication/12710/unprepared_for_a_pandemic.html
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 12
Jonathan B. Tucker and Raymond A. Zalinskas, “The Promise and Perils of Synthetic Biology,”
The New Atlantis, No. 12, Spring 2006, pp. 25-45,
http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-promise-and-perils-of-synthetic-biology
16 February: Nuclear safeguards and verification

Required Reading:
Matthew Bunn, “How IAEA Safeguards Work,” Managing the Atom “Nuclear 101” seminar,
Cambridge, Mass., 8 July 2009, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/How-IAEA-Safeguards-
Work.pdf
Matthew Bunn, “International Safeguards: Summarizing ‘Traditional’ and ‘New’ Measures”

(unpublished)
Matin Kalinowski and R. Scott Kemp, “Detection of Clandestine Fissile Material Production,”
Chapter 9 in International Panel on Fissile Materials, Global Fissile Materials Report 2007
(Princeton: IPFM, 2007), pp. 101-109,
http://www.fissilematerials.org/ipfm/site_down/gfmr07.pdf
Commission of Eminent Persons, Reinforcing the Global Nuclear Order for Peace and
Prosperity: The Role of the IAEA to 2020 and Beyond, GOV/2008/22-GC(52)/INF/4 (Vienna:
IAEA, May 2008), pp. 1-11, 18-23, 27-32. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/gov2008-
22gc52inf-4.pdf
David Albright and Paul Brannan, “The Al-Kibar Reactor: Extraordinary Camouflage, Troubling
Implications” (Washington, D.C.: Institute for Science and International Security, 12 May 2008)
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/syria/SyriaReactorReport_12May2008.pdf
Mark Hibbs, “Board Sinks IAEA Safeguards Panel with No Agreement on Improvements,”
NuclearFuel, 2 July 2007.
http://www.lexisnexis.com.ezp1.harvard.edu/us/lnacademic/api/version1/sr?shr=t&csi=8025&sr
=HLEAD(Board+Sinks+IAEA)+AND+DATE+IS+07/02/2007
Pierre Goldschmidt, “IAEA Safeguards: Dealing Preventively With Non-Compliance”
(Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Belfer Center for Science
and International Affairs, Harvard University, 12 July 2008)
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/Goldschmidt_Dealing_Preventively_7-12-08.pdf
George Bunn, “Nuclear Safeguards: How Far Can Inspectors Go?” IAEA Bulletin, Vol. 48, No. 2
(March 2007), pp. 49-55
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/Bull482/pdfs/13GBunn.pdf
John Carlsson and Russell Leslie, “Special Inspections Revisited,” paper presented at the 46th
Annual Meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management, 10-14 July 2005, Phoenix,
Ariz., http://www.asno.dfat.gov.au/publications/inmm2005_special_inspections.pdf
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 13
U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Nuclear Safeguards and the International
Atomic Energy Agency (Washington, D.C.: OTA, 1995)
http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1995/9530_n.html
U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Environmental Monitoring for Nuclear
Safeguards (Washington, D.C.: OTA, 1995) 1995
http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1995/9518_n.html
Jill N. Cooley, “Integrated Nuclear Safeguards: Genesis and Evolution,” in Trevor Findlay, ed.,
Verification Yearbook 2003 (London: Verification Technology Information Center, 2003) pp.
29-44 http://oldsite.vertic.org/assets/YB03/VY03_Cooley.pdf
Marvin Miller, “Are IAEA Safeguards on Plutonium Bulk-Handling Facilities Effective?”
(Washington, D.C.: Nuclear Control Institute, August 1990)
http://web.archive.org/web/20080102170801/http://www.nci.org/k-m/mmsgrds.htm
Henry Sokolski, ed., Falling Behind: International Scrutiny of the Peaceful Atom (Carlisle,
Penn.: U.S. Army Strategic Studies Institute, February 2008), http://www.npec-
web.org/Books/20080327-FallingBehind.pdf (esp. Chapters 3, 4, 5, and 11).
23 February: Nuclear energy and proliferation

Required Reading:
Matthew Bunn, “Proliferation Resistance (And Terror-Resistance) of Nuclear Energy Systems,”
lecture to “Systems Analysis of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, Mass., November 20, 2007
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/uploads/bunn_proliferation_resistance_lecture.pdf
Mohammed ElBaradei, “Nuclear Energy: The Need for a New Framework,”
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2008/ebsp2008n004.html
Matthew Bunn, “Civil Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapons Programs: The Record”
(unpublished memo) http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/nuclear-engineering/22-812j-managing-nuclear-
technology-spring-2004/readings/prolif_history.pdf
Chapter 7, “Assessing the Proliferation Risks of Civilian Nuclear Programmes,” pp. 141-150,
and Chapter 8, “Policy Options for Preventing a Proliferation Cascade,” pp. 151-164, in Mark
Fitzpatrick, ed., Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In the Shadow of Iran (London:
International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2008)
John P. Holdren, “Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons: The Connection is Dangerous,”
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 39, No. 1, January 1983, pp. 40-45.
Bernard I. Spinrad, “Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons: The Connection is Tenuous,” The
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 39, No. 2, February 1983, pp. 42–47.
Harold Feiveson, Alexander Glaser, Marvin Miller, and Lawrence Scheinman, Can Future
Nuclear Power be Made Proliferation Resistant? (College Park, Md.: Center for International
and Security Studies at Maryland, University of Maryland, July 2008),
http://cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/future_nuclear_power.pdf
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 14
Matthew Fuhrman, “Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation

Agreements,” International Security, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Summer 2009), pp. 7-41,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/IS3401_pp007-041_Fuhrmann.pdf
John Deutch, Arnold Kanter, Ernest Moniz, and Daniel Poneman, “Making the World Safe for
Nuclear Energy,” Survival, vol. 46, no. 4 (Winter 2004-2005), pp. 65-80.
http://web.mit.edu/chemistry/deutch/policy/2004-MakingtheWorld.pdf
Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection Evaluation Methodology Expert Group,
Generation IV International Forum, Evaluation Methodology for Proliferation Resistance and
Physical Protection of Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems, Rev. 5 (Paris: OECD Nuclear
Energy Agency, 30 November 2006) http://www.gen-4.org/Technology/horizontal/PRPPEM.pdf
28 February: Isolation vs. diplomacy: Case 2: North Korea today

Required Reading (to be updated as the semester proceeds):
Michael Mazarr, “The Long Road to Pyongyang,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2007.
Christopher R. Hill, “The Six Party Process: Progress and Perils in North Korea’s
Denuclearization,” testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on
Asia, the Pacific, and the Global Environment and Subcommittee on Terrorism,
Nonproliferation, and Trade, 25 October 2007, pp.12-20
http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/38544.pdf
Six Party Talks Joint Statement, September 19, 2005,
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-09/19/content_479150.htm
U.S. Department of State, “U.S.-North Korea Understandings on Verification,” 11 October
2008, http://www.cfr.org/publication/17538/usnorth_korea_understandings_on_verification.html
John R. Bolton, remarks at “A Fair Deal with North Korea?”, American Enterprise Institute, 5
April 2007, http://www.aei.org/events/filter.,eventID.1487/transcript.asp
John S. Park, “Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 28, No.
4 (Autumn 2005), pp. 75-91 http://www.twq.com/05autumn/docs/05autumn_park.pdf
Leon V. Sigal, “Diplomacy Delayed is Not Diplomacy Denied” (Review of Charles L. Pritchard,
Failed Diplomacy: The Tragic Story of How North Korea Got the Bomb), Arms Control Today,
May 2007, http://www.armscontrol.org/print/2631
Gary Samore, ed., North Korea’s Weapons Programmes: A Net Assessment (London:
International Institute for Strategic Studies, January 2004) (Chapters 1 and 2 on Library Reserve,
book available at Widener)
Mike Chinoy, Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis (New York: St.
Martin’s Press, 2008), 432 pp.
Arms Control Association, “Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy”
(Washington, D.C.: Arms Control Association, June 2008)
http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 15
2 March: Sanctions, diplomacy, and military options: Case 3: Iran

The readings here apply to all three of the sessions the class will spend on the Iran case. They
are numerous but short. Students should read as many as possible of them prior to the first class.
Individual students and groups may receive additional readings in class, tailored to their roles in
the negotiation simulation.
Overall options assessment
Matthew Bunn, “Constraining Iran’s Nuclear Program: Assessing Options and Risks,”
presentation at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 15 November 2007,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Matthew_Bunn_Oak_Ridge.pdf
Status of Iranian program, international response
International Atomic Energy Agency, Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and
Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008) and
1835 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Vienna: IAEA, November 16, 2009),
http://www.isisnucleariran.org/assets/pdf/IAEA_Report_Iran_16November2009pdf.pdf
U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, National Intelligence Estimate: Iran: Nuclear
Intentions and Capabilities (Washington, D.C.: ODNI, November 2007)
http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf
Suzanne Maloney, “U.S. Policy Toward Iran: Missed Opportunities and Paths Forward,” The
Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Vol. 32, No. 2 (Summer 2008)
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2008/summer_iran_maloney/summer_iran_
maloney.pdf
David Albright, Jacqueline Shire, and Paul Brannan, “IAEA Report on Iran: Enriched Uranium
Output Steady; Centrifuge Numbers Expected to Increase Dramatically; Arak Reactor
Verification Blocked” (Washington, D.C., Institute for Science and International Security, 19
November 2008) http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/ISIS_analysis_Nov-IAEA-
Report.pdf
Pressure and sanctions, with threat of military strikes
William J. Burns, “U.S. Policy Toward Iran,” testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee
and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 9 July 2008, pp.12-16
http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/43353.pdf
Daniel R. Coats and Charles S. Robb, “Stopping a Nuclear Tehran,” Washington Post, 23
October 2008 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2008/10/22/AR2008102203005.html
George Perkovich, “Iran Says ‘No’: Now What?” (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, September 2008)
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/pb63_perkovich_iran_final.pdf
George A. Lopez, “Effective Sanctions: Incentives and UN-US Dynamics,” Harvard
International Review, Fall 2007, pp. 50-54, http://ezp-
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 16
George Perkovich and Silvia Manzanero, “Plan B: Using Sanctions to End Iran’s Nuclear
Program,” Arms Control Today, May 2004,
http://www.iranwatch.org/privateviews/ACT/perspex-act-perkovichmanzanero-0504.htm
Living with a nuclear-armed Iran
Barry R. Posen, “We Can Live With a Nuclear Iran,” New York Times, 27 February 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/27/opinion/27posen.html
Military strikes
Joshua Muravchik, “Bomb Iran,” Los Angeles Times, 19 November 2006,
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-muravchik19nov19,0,1681154.story?coll=la-
opinion-center
David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Jacqueline Shire, “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran’s Gas
Centrifuge Program? Probably Not” (Washington, D.C.: Institute for Science and International
Security, 7 August 2008) http://www.isis-
online.org/publications/iran/Centrifuge_Manufacturing_7August2008.pdf
Paul Rogers, Iran: Consequences of a War (Oxford: Oxford Research Group, February 2006), 12
pp. http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/sites/default/files/IranConsequences.pdf
Walter Pincus, “Ex-Advisers Warn Against Threatening to Attack Iran,” Washington Post, 23
July 2008, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2008/07/22/AR2008072202698.html
Negotiations and compromise
Matthew Bunn, “Options for Limiting the Security Risks of Potential Negotiated Nuclear
Settlements With Iran,” presentation, Managing the Atom Seminar, Harvard University,
Cambridge, Mass., 24 September 2009, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Options-for-
Limiting-the-Security-Risks-from-a-Negotiated-Nuclear-Settlement-with-Iran_1.pdf
Ray Takeyh, “Taking Threats Off the Table Before Sitting Down With Iran,” Boston Globe, 3
May 2007
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/05/03/taking_threats_of
f_the_table_before_sitting_with_iran
Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, “How to Defuse Iran,” New York Times, 11 December
2007 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/11/opinion/11leverett.html
Geoffrey Forden and John Thomson, “A Shared Solution to the Iran Nuclear Stand-Off,”
Financial Times, 19 February 2006,
http://mit.edu/stgs/pdfs/IranCrisispdf/FinancialTimes_SharedSolution2IranNuclearStandoff.pdf
Abbas Maleki and Matthew Bunn, “Finding a Way Out of the Iranian Nuclear Crisis”
(Cambridge, Mass: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of
Government, Harvard University, 23 March 2006)
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/3149/finding_a_way_out_of_the_iranian_nuclear
_crisis.html
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 17
Additional Required Reading Before Simulation Begins:

Steven E. Miller, “Proliferation Gamesmanship: Iran and the Politics of Nuclear Confrontation,”
Syracuse Law Review, Vol. 57, No. 3 (Spring 2007), pp. 551-599.
http://www.lexisnexis.com.ezp1.harvard.edu/us/lnacademic/api/version1/sr?shr=t&csi=139122&
sr=CITE(57+Syracuse+L.+Rev.+551)
U.N. Security Council Resolution 1803 (New York: United Nations, 3 March 2008),
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/unsc_res1803-2008.pdf
Mark Fitzpatrick, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Avoiding Worst-Case Outcomes, Adelphi Paper
398 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, November 2008), 100 pp.
James N. Miller, Christine Parthemore, and Kurt M. Campbell, eds., Iran: Assessing U.S.
Strategic Options (Washington, D.C.: Center for a New American Security, September 2008),
128 pp.
http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/MillerParthemoreCampbell_Iran%20Assessin
g%20US%20Strategy_Sept08.pdf
Daniel Coats and Charles Robb, co-chairs, Meeting the Challenge: U.S. Policy Toward Iranian
Nuclear Development (Washington, D.C.: Bipartisan Policy Center, September 2008),
http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/us%20policy%20toward%20iranian%20nucle
ar%20development.pdf
U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Foreign Affairs, U.S. Policy Toward Iran, No.
110-210, hearing, 9 July 2008, http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/43353.pdf
Gary Samore, ed., Iran’s Strategic Weapons Programmes: A Net Assessment (London:
International Institute for Strategic Studies, September 2005), 128 pp.
Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, “Time for a U.S.-Iranian ‘Grand Bargain’”
(Washington, D.C.: New America Foundation, 7 October 2008),
http://www.newamerica.net/publications/special/time_for_a_us_iranian_grand_bargain_14062
Geoffrey Forden and John Thompson, Iran as a Pioneer Case for Multilateral Nuclear
Arrangements (Cambridge, Mass.: Science, Technology, and Global Security Working Group,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 24 May 2007)
http://web.mit.edu/stgs/pdfs/IranCrisispdf/Forden-Thomson_Proposal_24_May_2007.pdf
William Luers, Thomas R. Pickering, Jim Walsh, “A Solution for the U.S.-Iran Nuclear
Standoff,” New York Review of Books, 20 March 2008, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21112
Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, The Last Resort: Consequences of Preventive Military
Action Against Iran (Washington, D.C.: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, June 2008)
http://www.theisraelproject.org/atf/cf/%7B84DC5887-741E-4056-8D91-
A389164BC94E%7D/POLICYFOCUS84.PDF
Bruce Jentleson, “Sanctions Against Iran: Key Issues” (Washington, D.C.: Century Foundation,
2007), 39 pp. http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/jentleson.pdf
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, Kimberly Ann Elliott, and Barbara Oegg, Economic
Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd Ed. (Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 18
Economics, November 2007) 233 pp. Chapters available at:

http://bookstore.petersoninstitute.org/book-store/4075.html
Matthew Bunn, “Placing Iran's Enrichment Activities in Standby” (Cambridge, Mass.: Project on
Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, June 2006),
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/bunn_2006_iran_standby.pdf
Ray Takeyh, ”Time for Détente With Iran,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2007, http://ezp-
Shahram Chubin, Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, 2006).
Trita Parsi, Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States
(New Haven, Conn.: Yale, 2007)
Barbara Slavin, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S., and the Twisted Path to
Confrontation (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2007)
Thérèse Delpeche, Iran and the Bomb: The Abdication of International Responsibility (New
York: Columbia, 2007), 148 pp. Translated by Roy Schwartz.
7 March: Simulation: Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program
9 March: Simulation: Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program (cont.)
14 March: Spring Break
16 March: Spring Break
21 March: Black-market technology transfer: Case 4: The A. Q. Khan network
Required Reading:
“A.Q. Khan and Onward Proliferation From Pakistan,” in Mark Fitzpatrick, ed., Nuclear Black
Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan, and the Rise of Proliferation Networks: A Net Assessment
(London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2007), pp. 65-91.
David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, “Uncovering the Nuclear Black Market: Working
Toward Closing Gaps in the International Nonproliferation Regime,” in Proceedings of the 45th
Annual Meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management, 18-22 July 2004, Orlando,
Florida (Northbrook, Ill: INMM, 2004) http://www.isis-
online.org/publications/southasia/nuclear_black_market.html
Mark Fitzpatrick, “Nuclear Black Markets: Can We Win the Game of Catch-Up With
Determined Proliferators?” testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs,
Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia and Subcommittee on Terrorism,
Nonproliferation, and Trade, 27 June 2008 http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-in-the-press/press-
coverage-2007/june-2007/mark-fitzpatricks-testimony/
“Finding Innovative Ways to Detect and Thwart Illicit Nuclear Trade,” transcript of panel, 2007
Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference, 25 June 2007, especially remarks by Ralf
Wirtz, Oerlikon Leybold Vacuum. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/detect_thwart.pdf
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 19
Chaim Braun and Christopher F. Chyba, “Proliferation Rings: New Challenges to the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Regime,” International Security, Vol. 29, No. 2 (Fall 2004), pp. 5-49
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/chyba.pdf
Alexander Montgomery, “Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb
Network,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp. 153-187 http://iis-
db.stanford.edu/pubs/21033/Montgomery_IS.pdf
Mahdi Obeidi and Kurt Pitzer, “Shopping in Europe,” pp. 99-118 in The Bomb in My Garden:
Secrets of Saddam’s Nuclear Mastermind (Hoboken, N.J: Wiley, 2004)
Carleton E. Thorne, “Nonproliferation Export Controls,” in James E. Doyle, ed., Nuclear
Safeguards, Security, and Nonproliferation: Achieving Security With Technology and Policy
(Oxford, U.K.: Elsevier, 2008), pp. 531-548.
Todd E. Perry, “The Growing Role of Customs Organizations in International Strategic Trade
Controls,” in James E. Doyle, ed., Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Nonproliferation:
Achieving Security With Technology and Policy (Oxford, U.K.: Elsevier, 2008), pp. 549-560.
Matthew Bunn, “Corruption and Nuclear Proliferation,” in Robert Rotberg, ed., Corruption and
World Order, forthcoming 2009 [A copy of this chapter will be made available.]
Douglas Frantz and Catherine Collins, The Nuclear Jihadist: The True Story of the Man Who
Sold the World’s Most Dangerous Secrets…And How We Could Have Stopped Him (New York:
Twelve, 2007), 432 pp.
Gordon Corera, Shopping for Bombs: Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and the Rise and
Fall of the Khan Network (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), 304 pp.
Office of Technology Assessment, Export Controls and Nonproliferation Policy (Washington,
DC: OTA, May 1994) http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1994/9408/9408.PDF
Richard Cupitt, project director, Nonproliferation Export Controls: A Global Evaluation:
Executive Report (Athens, Georgia: Center for International Trade and Security, University of
Georgia, 2001).
23 March: Tradeoffs: U.S. Policy Toward the States Outside the NPT: India, Pakistan, and
Israel
“Reagan, Bush, and Pakistan’s Bomb,” in Peter Clausen, Nonproliferation and the National
Interest: America’s Response to the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (New York: HarperCollins,
1993), pp. 164-171.
Avner Cohen and William Burr, “The Untold Story of Israel’s Bomb,” Washington Post, 30
April 2006, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2006/04/28/AR2006042801326_pf.html
Ashton B. Carter, “America’s New Strategic Partner?” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006,
http://ezp-
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 20
William J. Burns, testimony on “The U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative,” U.S.
Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, 18 September 2008,
http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/congress/senate080918Burns.pdf
John C. Rood, testimony on “The U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative,” U.S. Senate,
Committee on Foreign Relations, 18 September 2008,
http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/congress/senate080918Rood.pdf
Daryl G. Kimball and Joseph Cirincione, “A Nonproliferation Disaster” (Washington, D.C.:
Center for American Progress, 11 December 2006)
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/12/india_deal.html
William C. Potter and Jayantha Dhanapala, “The Perils of Nonproliferation Amnesia,” The
Hindu, 1 September 2007, http://www.hindu.com/2007/09/01/stories/2007090156261300.htm
George Perkovich, Jessica T. Matthews, Joseph Cirincione, Rose Gottemoeller, and Jon B.
Wolfsthal, “Obligation Six: Solve the Three-State Problem,” in Universal Compliance: A
Strategy for Nuclear Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
March 2005), http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/sugimoto/nuclear.pdf, pp. 42-49.
Stimson Center, “Confidence-Building Measures in South Asia” (Washington, D.C.: Stimson
Center, September 17, 2010) http://www.stimson.org/research-pages/confidence-building-
measures-in-south-asia-/
“Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Weapons: For Better or For Worse?” Chapter 3 in Scott D. Sagan
and Kenneth D. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed (New York:
Norton, 2003), pp. 88-124.
Avner Cohen and Thomas W. Graham, “An NPT for Non-Members,” Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists, Vol. 60, No. 3, May/June 2004, pp. 40-44.
Sumit Ganguly, “Nuclear Stability in South Asia,” International Security, Vol. 33, No. 2 (Fall
2008), pp. 45-70.
S. Paul Kapur, “Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia,” International Security, Vol.
33, No. 2 (Fall 2008), pp. 71-94.
R. Nicholas Burns, “America’s Strategic Opportunity With India: The New U.S.-India
Partnership,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2007, http://ezp-
P.R. Chari, “Nuclear Crisis, Escalation Control, and Deterrence in South Asia” (Washington,
D.C.: Stimson Center, August 2003) http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-
pdfs/escalation_chari_1.pdf
Michael Krepon, ed., Nuclear Risk Reduction in South Asia (Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave
Macmillan, 2004), 288 pp.
28 March: Nonproliferation successes: Libya, Argentina-Brazil, South Africa, and more

Required Reading:
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 21
“Conclusion,” pp. 321-333 in Mitchell Reiss, Bridled Ambition: Why States Constrain Their
Nuclear Capabilities (Washington, D.C.: Wilson Center, 1995).
Pick two of these cases to read in detail:
Libya:
Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, “Who ‘Won’ Libya? The Force-Diplomacy
Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 3
(Winter 2005/2006), pp. 47-86 http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/is3003_pp047-086.pdf
Or
Joseph, Robert G., Countering WMD: The Libyan Experience, (Fairfax: National Institute Press
© 2009), "Executive Summary: From Tripoli to Tennessee", pp. 1-24.
Ukraine:
“The Decision to Denuclearize: How Ukraine Became a Non-Nuclear-Weapons State,” Harvard
Or
William C. Potter, The Politics of Nuclear Renunciation: The Cases of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and
Ukraine (Washington DC: Henry L. Stimson Center, Occasional Paper No. 22, April 1995),
http://books.google.com/books?id=DQwAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA24&lpg=PA24&dq=William+C
.+Potter,+The+Politics+of+Nuclear+Renunciation:+The+Cases+of+Belarus,+Kazakhstan,+and+
Ukraine&source=bl&ots=aYZZtDa584&sig=M9j7FPy3QW2QyEhQdTUXvV-
sxaA&hl=en&ei=VwkRTd_NL4P6lwfNlIC4CA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=9
&ved=0CDAQ6AEwCA#v=onepage&q=William%20C.%20Potter%2C%20The%20Politics%2
0of%20Nuclear%20Renunciation%3A%20The%20Cases%20of%20Belarus%2C%20Kazakhsta
n%2C%20and%20Ukraine&f=false [sections on Ukraine]
South Africa:
Peter Liberman, “The Rise and Fall of the South African Bomb,” International Security, Fall
2001, 45-86.
Japan:
Selig Harrison, “Japan and Nuclear Weapons,” Chapter 1 in Selig Harrison, ed., Japan’s Nuclear
Future: The Plutonium Debate and East Asian Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, 1996), pp. 3-44.
And
Hajimi Izumi and Katsuhisa Furukawa, “Not Going Nuclear: Japan’s Response to North Korea’s
Nuclear Test,” Arms Control Today, June 2007
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_06/CoverStory
Argentina-Brazil:
“Argentina” and “Brazil,” pp. 382-406 in Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam
Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, 2nd Ed. (Washington,
D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005).
Egypt:
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 22
Robert J. Einhorn, “Egypt: Frustrated, But Still on a Non-Nuclear Course,” pp. 43-82 in Kurt M.
Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States
reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2004)
Taiwan:
Derek J. Mitchell, “Taiwan’s Hsin-Chu Program: Deterrence, Abandonment, and Honor,” pp.
293-313 in Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds., The Nuclear
Tipping Point: Why States reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Washington, D.C.: Brookings,
2004)
Australia:
Jim Walsh, “Surprise Down Under: The Secret History of Australia’s Nuclear Ambitions,”
Nonproliferation Review, Fall 1997, pp. 1-20 http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/walsh51.pdf
30 March: Tools beyond treaties: Cooperative threat reduction, UNSCR 1540,

Proliferation Security Initiative, and more
Required Reading:
Matthew Bunn, Securing the Bomb 2008 (Cambridge, Mass., and Washington, D.C.: Project on
Managing the Atom, Harvard University, and Nuclear Threat Initiative, November 2008). 183
pp. http://www.nti.org/e_research/Securing_the_bomb08.pdf, pp. 21-65.
U.N. Security Council Resolution 1540 (New York: United Nations, 28 April 2004)
http://www.state.gov/t/isn/c18943.htm
Matthew Bunn, “‘Appropriate Effective’ Nuclear Security and Accounting: What Is It?,”
presentation to “‘Appropriate Effective’ Material Accounting and Physical Protection – Joint
Global Initiative/UNSCR 1540 Workshop,” Nashville, Tenn., 18 July 2008,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/bunn-1540-appropriate-effective50.pdf
Group of Eight, “The Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass
Destruction” (Kananaskis, Canada: Group of Eight, 27 June 2002)
http://2001-2009.state.gov/e/eeb/rls/othr/11514.htm
Strengthening Global Partnership Project, Global Partnership Update, No. 10 (Washington,
D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 2008), 8 pp.
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080208_gp_update.pdf
U.S. Department of State, “Proliferation Security Initiative” (Washington, D.C.: Department of
State, 26 May 2008) http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/PSI
Jofi Joseph, “The Proliferation Security Initiative: Can Interdiction Stop Proliferation?” Arms
Control Today, June 2004 http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_06/Joseph
U.S. Department of State, “Statement of Principles of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear
Terrorism” (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, 20 November 2006)
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/141995.pdf
Henry L. Stimson Center, “The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism” (Washington.
D.C.: Henry L. Stimson Center, 30 May 2007),
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 23
http://www.stimson.org/the-global-initiative-to-combat-nuclear-terrorism-/
B. Andemicael et al (UNSCR 1540 Committee Experts), “Comprehensive Review on the Status
of Implementation of Resolution 1540 (2004)” (New York: United Nations, 2009).
http://www.un.org/sc/1540/docs/CR%20paper(Element%20A).pdf
United Nations, Report of the Committee Established Pursuant to Security Council Resolution
1540 (2004), S/2008/493 (New York: United Nations, 30 July 2008),
http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-
CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/Disarm%20S2008493.pdf
James E. Goodby, Daniel L. Burghart, Cheryl A. Loeb and Charles L. Thornton, Cooperative
Threat Reduction for a New Era (Washington, D.C.: Center for Technology and National
Security Policy, National Defense University, September 2004)
http://www.ndu.edu/CTNSP/docUploaded/DTP4%20CTR%20for%20a%20New%20Era.pdf
Matthew Bunn, “Cooperation to Secure Nuclear Stockpiles: A Case of Constrained Innovation,”
Innovations: Technology|Governance|Globalization, Vol. 1, Issue, 1, 2006, pp. 115-137
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/innov0101_cooperationtosecurenuclearstockpiles.pdf
Paul F. Walker, “Nunn-Lugar at 15: No Time to Relax Global Threat Reduction Efforts,” Arms
Control Today, May 2006, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_05/NunnLugar15
Matthew Bunn, “Building a Genuine U.S.-Russian Partnership for Nuclear Security,” in
Proceedings of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management 46th Annual Meeting, Phoenix,
Arizona, 10-14 July 2005 (Northbrook, IL: INMM, 2005),
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/inmmpartnership205.pdf
4 April: Preventing nuclear terrorism

Required Reading (to be updated as semester proceeds):
Matthew Bunn and Andrew Newman, “Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: An Agenda for the Next
President” (Cambridge, Mass: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, November
2008), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/uploads/Preventing_Nuclear_Terrorism-
An_Agenda.pdf
Matthew Bunn, “The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism – And Next Steps to Reduce the Danger,”
Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate, 2 April 2008,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/bunn-nuclear-terror-risk-test-08.pdf
John Mueller, "The Atomic Terrorist: Assessing the Likelihood," January 2008
http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/APSACHGO.PDF
Matthew Bunn, Securing the Bomb 2008 (Cambridge, Mass., and Washington, D.C.: Project on
Managing the Atom, Harvard University, and Nuclear Threat Initiative, November 2008). 183
pp. http://www.nti.org/e_research/Securing_the_bomb08.pdf
Graham Allison, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe (New York, N.Y.:
Henry Holt & Company, 2004)
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 24
"Illicit Trafficking in Radioactive Materials," in Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan,
and the Rise of Proliferation Networks: A Net Assessment (London: International Institute for
Strategic Studies, 2007), pp. 119-138. (Lyudmila Zaitseva, principal author.)
Michael Levi, On Nuclear Terrorism (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2007)
Ashton Carter, Michael May and William Perry, The Day After: Action in the 24 Hours
Following a Nuclear Blast in an American City (Cambridge, MA: Preventive Defense Project,
31 May 2007 May)
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/dayafterworkshopreport_may2007.pdf
Thomas B. Cochran and Matthew G. McKinzie, “Detecting Nuclear Smuggling,” Scientific
American, April 2008, http://ezp-
Graham Allison (ed), “Confronting the Spector of Nuclear Terrorism,” special issue of The
Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 607, September 2006.
Charles D. Ferguson and William C. Potter with Amy Sands, Leonard S. Spector, and Fred L.
Wehling, The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism (New York, N.Y.: Routledge, 2005).
Michael Bronner, “100 Grams (and Counting): Notes from the Nuclear Underworld”
(Cambridge, Mass.: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, June 2008)
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Bronner%20Booklet%20Final.pdf
Matthew Bunn, “Incentives for Nuclear Security,” in Proceedings of the Institute for Nuclear
Materials Management 46th Annual Meeting, Phoenix, Arizona, 10-14 July 2005 (Northbrook,
IL: INMM, 2005) http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/inmmincentives205.pdf
6 April: Delivery Systems and Missile Defenses

Chapter 5, “Missile Proliferation,” in Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam
Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, 2nd Ed. (Washington,
D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005), pp. 83-118.
Michael Rance, “Technological Aspects of Ballistic Missile Defense,” in Missile Proliferation
and Defenses: Problems and Prospects (Monterey, Calif.: Center for Nonproliferation Studies,
Monterey Institute for International Studies, and Mountbatten Center for International Studies,
May 2001) http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/op7/op7.pdf
Philip Coyle, “The Limits and Liabilities of Missile Defense,” Current History, November 2006
http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.cfm?documentID=3725
Wade Boese and Miles A. Pomper, “Defending Missile Defense: An Interview with Missile
Defense Agency Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering,” Arms Control Today, November 2005,
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_11/NOV-OberingCVR
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 25
Steven A. Hildreth, North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, RS21473
(Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, updated 24 January 2008)
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RS21473.pdf
Steven A. Hildreth, Iran’s Ballistic Missile Programs: An Overview (Washington, D.C.:
Congressional Research Service, updated 21 July 2008)
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RS22758.pdf
Missile Proliferation and Defenses: Problems and Prospects (Monterey, Calif.: Center for
Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute for International Studies, and Mountbatten Center
for International Studies, May 2001) http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/op7/op7.pdf
Mark Smith, “Missing Piece and Gordian Knot: Missile Non-Proliferation” No. 27 (Stockholm:
Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, ca. 2005)
http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/No27.pdf
Office of Technology Assessment, “The Proliferation of Delivery Systems,” in Technologies
Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: OTA, December 1993), pp. 197-
255. http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/ota/9344.html
Arms Control Association, “The Missile Technology Control Regime at a Glance” (Washington,
D.C.: Arms Control Association, September 2004) http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/mtcr
Robert Gates and Condoleezza Rice, “The West Needs a Defense System That Works,” Daily
Telegraph, 26 April 2007. http://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/rm/2007/apr/83862.htm
Daryl G. Kimball, “Rethink European Missile Defense,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2008.
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_07-08/focus
Ellen Barry and Sophia Kishkovsky, “Russia Warns of Missile Deployment,” New York Times, 5
November 2008 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/06/world/europe/06russia.html
Richard Speier, “Missile Nonproliferation and Missile Defense: Fitting them Together,” Arms
Control Today, November 2007, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_11/Speier
Lisbeth Gronlund, David Wright, George Lewis, and Philip Coyle, Technical Realities: An
Analysis of the 2004 Deployment of a U.S. National Missile Defense System (Cambridge, MA:
Union of Concerned Scientists, May 2004)
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/technicalrealities_fullreport.pdf
A.M. Sessler, chair, Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness
of the Planned U.S. National Missile Defense System (Cambridge, Mass: Union of Concerned
Scientists and MIT Security Studies Program, April 2000)
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/cm_all.pdf
11 April: Preemptive and preventive attacks

Required Reading:
“Preemption,” pp. 74-81 in George Perkovich, Jessica T. Matthews, Joseph Cirincione, Rose
Gottemoeller, Jon B. Wolfsthal, Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Nuclear Security
(Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2005),
http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/sugimoto/nuclear.pdf
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 26
Dan Reiter, “Preventive Attacks Against Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Programs:
The Track Record,” in William Keller and Gordon Mitchell, eds., Hitting First (Pittsburgh,
Penn.: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2006), pp. 27-44.
James J. Wirtz and James A. Russell, “U.S. Policy on Preventive War and Preemption,” The
Nonproliferation Review, Spring 2003, pp. 113-123.
http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers/ccc/faculty/biolinks/russell/wirtz-Russell.pdf
Harald Müller, “WMD Crisis: Law Instead of Lawless Self-Help,” No. 37 (Stockholm: Weapons
of Mass Destruction Commission, 2005), 16 pp. http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/No37.pdf
Ivo Daalder and James Steinberg, “The Future of Preemption,” The National Interest, Vol. 1, No.
2 (Winter 2005)
Anthony Clark Arend, “International Law and the Preemptive Use of Military Force,” The
Washington Quarterly, Vol. 26, No. 2 (Spring 2003), pp. 89-103 http://ezp-
Robert S. Litwak, “Nonproliferation and the Use of Force,” in Janne E. Nolan, Bernard I. Finel,
and Brian D. Finlay, eds., Ultimate Security: Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction (New
York: Century Foundation Press, 2003) pp. 75-106.
Richard Betts, “The Osirak Fallacy,” The National Interest, Vol. 83 (Spring 2006), pp. 22-25
http://ezp-
Jeremy Tamsett, “The Israeli Bombing of Osiraq Reconsidered: Successful
Counterproliferation?” Nonproliferation Review vol. 11 (Fall-Winter 2004), pp. 70-85.
http://www.informaworld.com.ezp-
prod1.hul.harvard.edu/smpp/content~db=all~content=a790426472~frm=titlelink?words=israeli|b
ombing|osiraq|reconsidered&hash=477575990
13 April: Nuclear weapons policy for the future

“Executive Summary,” in William J. Perry (chair), James R. Schlesinger (vice-chair), America’s
Strategic Posture: The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture
of the United States (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute for Peace, 2009)
http://media.usip.org/reports/strat_posture_report.pdf
Hans M. Kristensen and Ivan Oelrich, “Lots of Hedging, Little Leading: An Analysis of the
Congressional Strategic Posture Commission Report,” Arms Control Today, June 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_6/KristensenOelrich
Sidney Drell and James Goodby, What Are Nuclear Weapons For? Recommendations for
Restructuring U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces (Washington, D.C.: Arms Control Association,
October 2007) http://www.armscontrol.org/pdf/20071104_Drell_Goodby_07_new.pdf
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 27
“Executive Summary,” in U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Committee on International

Security and Arms Control, The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy (Washington, D.C.:
National Academy Press, 1997), pp. 1-10, http://www.nap.edu/nap-
cgi/report.cgi?record_id=5796&type=pdfxsum
William Perry and Brent Scowcroft, co-chairs, U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy (Washington, D.C.:
Council on Foreign Relations, 2009)
http://books.google.com/books?id=YK5pHeX9i14C&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_sum
mary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false
Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman and Secretay of Defense Robert Gates, National Security
and Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Departments of Energy and
Defense, September 2008) 28 pp. http://www.defenselink.mil/news/nuclearweaponspolicy.pdf
U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, The
Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1997).
JASON, Lifetime Extension Program: Executive Summary, JSR-09-334E (McLean, Virginia:
JASON Program Office, The Mitre Corporation, September 9, 2009),
http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/lep.pdf
April 18: Nuclear arms reductions and disarmament

George P. Schultz, William J. Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, “A World Free of Nuclear
Weapons,” Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2007
http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/6731276.html
George P. Schultz, William J. Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, “Toward a Nuclear-Free
World,” Wall Street Journal, 15 January 2008,
http://www.nti.org/c_press/TOWARD_A_NUCLEAR_FREE_WORLD_OPED_011508.pdf
Harold Brown, “New Nuclear Realities,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 31, No. 1 (Winter
2007/2008), pp. 7-22 http://www.twq.com/08winter/docs/08winter_brown.pdf
Anatoli Diakov and Eugene Miasnikov, “ReSTART: The Need for a New U.S.-Russian Strategic
Arms Agreement,” Arms Control Today, September 2006
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_09/restart
Bruce G. Blair, Harold A. Feiveson. and Frank N. von Hippel, “Taking Nuclear Weapons Off
Alert,” Scientific American, November 1997, pp. 74-81.http://ezp-
Commission of Eminent Persons, Reinforcing the Global Nuclear Order for Peace and
Prosperity: The Role of the IAEA to 2020 and Beyond, GOV/2008/22-GC(52)/INF/4 (Vienna:
IAEA, May 2008), pp. 15-17
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/gov2008-22gc52inf-4.pdf
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 28
Bruce Blair et al., Toward True Security: Ten Steps the Next U.S. President Should Take to
Transform U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy, (Washington, D.C.: Federation of American Scientists,
Natural Resources Defense Council, Union of Concerned Scientists),
http://docs.nrdc.org/nuclear/files/nuc_08021201A.pdf
John P. Holdren, Getting to Zero: Is Pursuing a Nuclear-Weapon-Free World Too Difficult? Too
Dangerous? Too Distracting?” Discussion Paper 98-24 (Cambridge, Mass.: Belfer Center for
Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, April 1998),
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/disc_paper_98_24.pdf
George Perkovich and James Acton, Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, Adelphi Paper 396 (London:
International Institute for Strategic Studies, August 2008), 130 pp.
Ivo Daalder and Jan Lodal, “The Logic of Zero: Toward a World Without Nuclear Weapons,”
Foreign Affairs, November/December 2008, http://ezp-
William C. Potter and Nikolai Sokov, “Practical Measures to Reduce the Risks Presented by
Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons” No. 8 (Stockholm: Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission,
ca. 2004) http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/No8.pdf
General John M. Shalikashvili (USA, ret.), Findings and Recommendations Concerning the
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, January
2001), http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/ctbtpage/ctbt_report.html#report
U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Technical Issues Related to Ratification of
the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, Technical Issues Related to the Comprehensive
Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 2002),
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=10471
Matthew Bunn, “Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty,” in Nuclear Threat Initiative Research Library:
Securing the Bomb, http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/ending/fmct.asp (last updated by
Anthony Wier, 1 August 2006)
Mohammed ElBaradei, “Reviving Nuclear Disarmament,” Oslo, Norway, 26 February 2008
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2008/ebsp2008n002.html
Harold A. Feiveson, ed., The Nuclear Turning Point: A Blueprint for Deep Cuts and De-Alerting
of Nuclear Weapons (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999)
April 20: Processes for making nonproliferation decisions

Readings to be provided.
April 25: Simulation: National Security Council Meeting on Syrian Nuclear Program
Leonard S. Spector and Avner Cohen, “Israel’s Airstrike on Syria’s Reactor: Implications for the
Nonproliferation Regime,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2008,
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_07-08/SpectorCohen
IGA-321 Syllabus, 1/21/2011 29
Richard Follath and Holger Stark, “The Story of ‘Operation Orchard’: How Israel Destroyed
Syria's Al Kibar Nuclear Reactor,” Der Spiegel, 2 November 2009
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,658663,00.html
James M. Acton, Mark Fitzpatrick, and Pierre Goldschmidt, “The IAEA Should Call for a
Special Inspection in Syria” (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 26
February 2009), http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=22791
International Atomic Energy Agency, “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the
Syrian Arab Republic,” GOV/2009/75 (Vienna: IAEA, 16 November 2009) http://www.isis-
online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/IAEA_Report_Syria_16November2009pdf_1.pdf
April 27: Summing up: stemming the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons
Required Reading:
Joint Statement by President Barack Obama of the United States of America and President
Dmitry Medvedev of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Cooperation, July 6, 2009, Barack
Obama, “Confronting New Threats,” 16 July 2008,
http://www.barackobama.com/2008/07/16/remarks_of_senator_barack_obam_95.php
George Perkovich, Jessica T. Matthews, Joseph Cirincione, Rose Gottemoeller, Jon B.
Wolfsthal, Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Nuclear Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, March 2005), pp. 33-41, 51-71, 127-158.
http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/sugimoto/nuclear.pdf
Annex 1, “WMDC Recommendations,” in Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, Hans
Blix, chair, Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Arms
(Stockholm: WMDC, 2006), http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/Weapons_of_Terror.pdf, pp.
188-205.
Bob Graham (chair), World at Risk: The Report of the Commission on the Prevention of WMD
Proliferation and Terrorism (New York: Vintage, December 2008)
http://documents.scribd.com/docs/15bq1nrl9aerfu0yu9qd.pdf
Deepti Choubey, Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable? (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, 2008), 26 pp.
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/new_nuclear_bargains2.pdf
Arms Control Association, “Correcting the Record: Arms Experts Respond to Secretary Rice’s
Claims About Bush Administration Nuclear Control Accomplishments” (Washington, D.C.:
Arms Control Association, 10 September 2008 http://www.armscontrol.org/node/3346
Steven J. Hadley, “Remarks on the 5th Anniversary of the Proliferation Security Initiative,” 28
May 2008
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=20173&prog=zgp
&proj=znpp

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Harvard University

John F. Kennedy School of Government

Assignments and Grading

Expectations and Readings

Proliferation News Sources

Proliferation News. Prepared by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s

4 April Preventing nuclear terrorism (Bunn)

31 January: Nuclear material production, safeguards, threats, and diplomacy: Case 1:

Office of Technology Assessment, “Technical Aspects of Nuclear Proliferation,” in

2 February: Why states decide to get, or not to get, nuclear weapons

William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, “Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review

7 February: Deterrence and its risks

16 February: Nuclear safeguards and verification

Matthew Bunn, “International Safeguards: Summarizing ‘Traditional’ and ‘New’ Measures”

23 February: Nuclear energy and proliferation

Matthew Fuhrman, “Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation

28 February: Isolation vs. diplomacy: Case 2: North Korea today

2 March: Sanctions, diplomacy, and military options: Case 3: Iran

Additional Required Reading Before Simulation Begins:

Economics, November 2007) 233 pp. Chapters available at:

28 March: Nonproliferation successes: Libya, Argentina-Brazil, South Africa, and more

30 March: Tools beyond treaties: Cooperative threat reduction, UNSCR 1540,

4 April: Preventing nuclear terrorism

6 April: Delivery Systems and Missile Defenses

11 April: Preemptive and preventive attacks

13 April: Nuclear weapons policy for the future

“Executive Summary,” in U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Committee on International

April 18: Nuclear arms reductions and disarmament

April 20: Processes for making nonproliferation decisions

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