Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
1999 $50
2000 $55
2001 $52 $52.50
2002 $60 $53.50 $52.33 6.50
2003 $58 $56.00 $55.67 $54.25 2.00
2004 $60 $59.00 $56.67 $56.25 1.00
2005 $62 $59.00 $59.33 $57.50 3.00
2006 $57 $61.00 $60.00 $60.00 4.00
2007 $63 $59.50 $59.67 $59.25 3.50
2008 $62 $60.00 $60.67 $60.50 2.00
2009 $62.50 $60.67 $61.00
2010 $62.25 $61.89 $60.75
2011 $62.38 $61.52 $61.69
2012 $62.31 $61.36 $61.36
3.14
Suavizacion exponencial
Año Ventas (Millones de pesos) alfa 0,1 alfa 0,2 alfa 0,3 alfa 0,4
1999 $50 $50.00 $50.00 $50 $50
2000 $55 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00
2001 $52 $54.50 $54.00 $53.50 $53.00
2002 $60 $52.25 $52.40 $52.45 $52.40
2003 $58 $59.23 $58.48 $57.74 $56.96
2004 $60 $58.12 $58.10 $57.92 $57.58
2005 $62 $59.81 $59.62 $59.38 $59.03
2006 $57 $61.78 $61.52 $61.21 $60.81
2007 $63 $57.48 $57.90 $58.26 $58.53
2008 $62 $62.45 $61.98 $61.58 $61.21
2009 $62.04 $62.00 $61.87 $61.68
7.67
2.33 3.75
3.33 3.75
2.67 4.50
3.00 3.00
3.33 3.75
1.33 1.50
alfa 0,5 error alfa 0,1 error alfa 0,2 error alfa 0,3 error alfa 0,4 error alfa 0,5
$50 0 0 0 0 0
$50.00 5 5 5 5 5
$52.50 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5
$52.25 7.75 7.6 7.55 7.6 7.75
$56.13 1.225 0.48 0.265 1.04 1.875
$57.06 1.8775 1.904 2.0795 2.416 2.9375
$58.53 2.18775 2.3808 2.62385 2.9664 3.46875
$60.27 4.781225 4.52384 4.212845 3.81344 3.265625
$58.63 5.5218775 5.095232 4.7361465 4.474624 4.3671875
$60.82 0.44781225 0.0190464 0.42084395 0.7898496 1.18359375
$61.41
IE(I) 1.46
IE(II) 0.58
Ventas
EST EPS Desestacion Tiempo
alizadas
342.03 0
345.38 1
1.52 376.23 2
0.58 379.92 3
1.45 384.44 4
0.57 388.56 5
1.44 389.91 6
0.58 400.64 7
1.44 398.12 8
0.58 411.01 9
419.83 10
426.78 11
433.72 12
440.67 13
Ventas Gasto en
(Millones publicidad
Año
de (millones de 40.00
unidades) pesos)
35.00
1999 5.00 10.0
f(x) = 0.7030192328355 x − 2.36155581820135
2000 10.00 22.0 30.00
R² = 0.95758490308158
2001 6.00 10.0 25.00
2002 6.50 10.0
2003 36.30 50.0 20.00
2004 2.00 5.0 15.00
2005 5.20 10.0
2006 15.00 30.0 10.00
3.00 MAD
PONDERADORES
T-1 0
T-2 0.25
T-3 0.75
SUMA 1