Pak India Relation

CSP ELINA ALI ABBASI
CURRENT AFFAIR
INFOWORLD ONLINE CSS ACADEMY
Pak-India Relations
Historical Background:
August 1947:
Britain ends its colonial rule over the Indian
subcontinent, which becomes two independent nations
— Hindu-majority, but secularly governed India and the
Islamic Republic of Pakistan.The division, widely known
as Partition, sparks massive rioting that kills up to 1
million, while another 15 million flee their homes in one
of the world’s largest human migrations.
October 1947:
The two young nations begin a war over control of
Kashmir, a Muslim-majority kingdom ruled by a Hindu
maharaja. A UN-brokered cease-fire ends the war in a
year with Kashmir divided between them.
January 1949:
India and Pakistan agree to a UN Security Council
resolution calling for a referendum in which Kashmiris
would determine their future; the vote never takes place.
September 1960:
Pakistan and India sign a World Bank-brokered Indus
Water Treaty governing six rivers, or three rivers each. It
is the only Pakistan-India treaty that has held.
August 1965:
A second war begins over Kashmir, ending a month later
in another UN-mandated ceasefire.
December 1971:
A third war is fought, this time as India supports
secessionists in East Pakistan. The war ends with the
creation of Bangladesh.
July 1972:
The countries’ prime ministers sign an accord for the
return of tens of thousands of Pakistani prisoners of war.
May 1974:
India conducts a nuclear test, becoming the first nation
to do so that’s not a permanent UN Security Council
member.
December 1989:
Armed resistance to Indian rule in Kashmir begins. India
accuses Pakistan of giving weapons
and training to the fighters. Pakistan says it offers only
'moral and diplomatic' support.
May 1998:
India detonates five nuclear devices in tests. Pakistan
detonates six. Both are slapped with international
sanctions.
February 1999:
Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee rides a bus to
Lahore to meet with Pakistan counterpart, Nawaz Sharif,
and sign a major peace accord.
May 1999:
Conflict erupts in Kargil as Pakistani forces and Kashmiri
fighters occupy Himalayan peaks.India launches air and
ground strikes. The US brokers peace.
May 2001:
Vajpayee and President Pervez Musharraf meet in the
Indian city of Agra, but reach no agreements.Indian Black
Cat commandos escort civilians outside the Parliament
House as half a dozen
armed men stormed the complex in New Delhi, India,
Dec. 2001.
October 2001:
Insurgents attack the legislature building in Indian-
controlled Kashmir, killing 38 people.
December 2001:
Gunmen attack India’s Parliament, killing 14. India
blames militant groups Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-
Muhammad, and deploys troops to its western frontier
with Pakistan. The standoff ends
in October 2002 after international mediation.
January 2004:
Musharraf and Vajpayee hold talks, launching bilateral
negotiations to settle outstanding issues.An Indian
soldier takes cover as the Taj Mahal hotel burns during
gun battle between Indian military and militants inside
the hotel in Mumbai, India, Nov. 2008.
February 2007:
A train service between India and Pakistan, the
Samjhauta Express, is bombed in northern India,killing
68.
October 2008:
India and Pakistan open a trade route across divided
Kashmir for the first time in six decades.
November 2008:
Gunmen attack Mumbai, killing 166 people. India blames
a Pakistan-based militant group.
May 2014:
India’s new Prime Minister Narendra Modi invites
Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif to NewDelhi for his
inauguration.
December 2015:
Modi makes a surprise visit to the Pakistani city of Lahore
on Sharif’s birthday and the wedding of his
granddaughter.
January 2016:
Six gunmen attack an Indian air force base in the
northern town of Pathankot, killing seven soldiers in a
battle that lasted nearly four days.
July 2016:
Indian soldiers kill Kashmiri separatist Burhan Wani,
sparking months of anti-India protests and deadly clashes
in the region.
September 2016:
Suspected rebels sneak into an Indian army base in
Kashmir and kill 18 soldiers. Four attackers are also killed.
Indo-Pak
relations
India and Pakistan are two immediate neighboring
countries of South-Asia. Seven decades havepassed; the
relations of these two unfortunate countries have never
been normal and are at their lowest level today. The
clash of their national interests and unresolved issues are
the mainreasons.Indo-Pak relations are an elaborate
chapter and therefore should be seen in the light of their
long
historic background. India and Pakistan both had been
created on the basis of “Two Nation”theory and under
the formula of Hindu majority areas of the Sub-Continent
as an independentsovereign India and the Muslims –
majority areas as Pakistan. The hawkish Hindu
politicalleaders of India, who had for a long time been
dreaming of “Akhand Bharat” becamedisappointed and
had not accepted the creation of Pakistan.India has
produced dynamic political leaders. They had the vision
and desire to see India toemerge as a World-Power,
leader of Asia and its supremacy over the Indian
Ocean.The megalomaniac leaders of India had therefore
started with occupying the nearby islands inIndian
Ocean, then with fake documents prepared from the
ruler of the state of Jammu Kashmir
and an absurd plea had attacked and occupied the state
and lastly violating the agreement as before attacked and
occupied pro-Pakistan rulers’ states of Hyderabad and
Junagarh.
Following the occupation of Kashmir in 1947, India then
in 1948, in collaboration a prominentruler of Baluchistan
had attacked Baluchistan from the soil of Afghanistan.In
reply, the Pakistan Army under command of Gen. Akbar
Rangroot had repulsed the attack,captured all enemy-
soldiers and presented them before Quaid-e-Azam
Muhammad Ali Jinnah,Governor General of Pakistan.
In 1965 war between India and Pakistan inside the
disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir, Indiahad violated
by attacking Pakistan at its international borders.
In 1971 then, the Government of Prime Minister Mrs.
Indira Gandhi and it’s agencies, who incollaboration with
their political agents and facilitators in East Pakistan had
been operating for along time attacked Pakistan, won the
war and disintegrated it.Following this glorious victory,
Mrs. Indira Gandhi wasted no time, carried its first
nuclearexplosion and made India a Nuclear power.
The political leadership of Pakistan foreseeing and
smelling the Indian future designs goals andtheir
intentions against Pakistan, in spite of great hurdles had
therefore decided to becomeNuclear in its defense and
deterrence against India.
Afterwards, the day Mr. Modi became the Prime Minister
of India, he and fanatic Hindu extremist political parties
known for their anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan stance and
enmity, he has constantly been busy in brutally crushing
the movement of self-determination of the people
of Jammu and Kashmir lasting for seventy long years. The
defense forces of India are committing barbarism over
local Muslim population, their massacre and gross
human rightsviolations.His government is also trying to
change 35-A constitutional status of Kashmir. Mr.
Modi,remember, India has lost Kashmir forever is written
over the wall.Regarding Mr. Modi’s policy for Pakistan,
he has started a proxy war of terrorism inside Pakistan
financially supporting the separatist movement in
Baluchistan and trying to destroy its
economy.Moreover Mr. Modi has stopped water supply
of Pakistan, necessary for its agriculture and has further
threatened and vowed to convert Pakistan into desert,
which is a very dangerous step.
Both the governments of India and Pakistan should
remember that, no government of India shallever have
the political will or dare to solve core issue of Kashmir
with Pakistan. Similarly, nogovernment of Pakistan shall
ever forget Kashmir issue and leave it alone.Therefore,
the chances of good relation between India and Pakistan
are bleak. India claims itselfto be the biggest democracy
of the world shall have to solve the issues one day.In
spite of all challenges, however, it is encouraging that the
majority of people on both sides
have a great desire for the dialogue between India and
Pakistan, solve their issues amicably, visiteach other’s
countries, exchange social functions and live amicably.
They also desire to revise their visa system and change
insulting system of issuing visas to thepublic on both
sides.Visit any country of the world, you will find both
people of India and Pakistan living peacefully,eating
together, enjoying together and helping each
other.Lastly relating to visa availability for the citizens of
both countries, in normal circumstances and
routinely, a visa is issued by the embassy of every
country to visit freely and move freely all overthat
country.In case of India and Pakistan however, visa is
issued not for the entire country but only for thecities,
restricted to five cities. In addition, the citizens of both
countries are bound to report theirarrivals and departure
every time to the police stations.
Reason for optimism on Pakistan-India
relations
Under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO), Pakistan and India areparticipating in
six days of anti-terrorism exercises in Chebarkul, a town
in Chelyabinsk Oblastin Russia.
There is a 110-member contingent from Pakistan, a 200-
member contingent from India, and 748members from
China – altogether 3,000 professional troops from all
member states areconducting joint anti-terrorism
exercises. They will continue until Wednesday.
Pakistan and India joined the SCO in 2017 and attended
their first summit this June in Qingdao,China. The SCO is
a platform for regional cooperation in security, trade and
culture. Afterjoining the organization, all member states
are bound to resolve all their disputes throughpeaceful
dialogue.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, just after winning
election, in a speech on July 26 saidPakistan wanted good
relations with all countries, and he particularly
mentioned India. Later on,in a tweet on August 21, Khan
proposed talks with India on all issues including Jammu
andKashmir.
He further proposed that bilateral trade agreements be
considered as a first step towardconfidence-building.
For his part, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also
mentioned the possibility of dialogue inhis message to
Khan on the occasion of his winning the July 25
election.It is worth mentioning that Pakistani and Indian
forces have worked together under UnitedNations
peacekeeping missions in the past.
Traditional rivalsPakistan and India won independence
from British rule in 1947. Since independence, they
havefought three major wars and have had numerous
border disputes. The two countries aretraditional rivals
and have engaged in a cold war, an economic war, and a
diplomatic war. Yet
both countries face similar challenges, such as poverty.
Common citizens are deprived of basic necessities of life
such as education, good food, andhealth care. Both
countries face extremism, intolerance and global
warming. If bilateral relationswere normalized, the
money saved on defense expenditures could be utilized
for socio-economic
welfare. The poor on both sides would benefit.
However, a lot has to be done and hard decisions have to
be made. India recently signed adefense agreement with
the United States worth US$8 billion, which should be
reviewed as it will create an arms race and destabilize
the whole region. India has disputes with all of
itsneighboring countries and any increase in the defense
budget may be a direct threat to neighboring states.
The US is extending economic assistance and defense

support to India to contain China, butIndia may not use
its strength against China, but more likely against its
smaller neighbors. TheUS is providing India with the
latest technologies, the latest weapons, and India has
become thelargest beneficiary of the US after Israel. India
is also collaborating with Israel closely in defenseand
economic matters.
India is facing serious domestic issues, especially with its

lower castes and minorities. Superior-class Hindus and
extremist Hindu organizations are given a free hand to
suppress “untouchables”and minorities.
Women are the worst victims. The number of rape cases
is growing. Homeless people, street children, lack of
clean drinking water and toilet facilities, and malnutrition
are major domestic challenges. Human-rights violations
are widespread. Uprisings in Punjab, Bihar, Kashmir
andNagaland are gaining momentum.
Pakistan is a peace-loving nation and would like to offer
all possible options to India to change its mindset and
move forward for peace. It has made such proposals to
India in the past, and the new government is also
offering to normalize relations with India.
We Pakistanis believe in diplomacy and dialogue. The
SCO platform is also a good option for resolving disputes.
Pakistan is an open-minded country and willing to discuss
all possible options based on mutual benefits.
The new prime minister, Imran Khan, is a man of
principles and believes in justice for all. He respects
others and expects respect in return. He may move two
steps forward if India moves onestep forward, as he
mentioned in his post-election speech.We already
missed an opportunity with the South Asian Association
for Regional Cooperation(SAARC), which promotes
regional peace, stability, cooperation and development,
as India tried to hijack it and turn it into a dysfunctional
organization. We should learn the lessons from the
past and avoid repeating the same mistakes again and
again, especially under the currentgeopolitical scenario,
which is rather tense and hostile.
I am optimistic that India will understand and avail this
opportunity of resolving all issues permanently. The ball
is in India’s court. I also request that intellectuals,
academicians, civil society, think-tanks, and the middle
and lower classes of both sides promote peace. Let the
people of both sides enjoy the basic amenities of life
instead of hostility.International development agenda
has been actively led by the United Nations (UN) and its
technical agencies and funds from their inception in the
late 1940s. Till 1990s, the approach was
fragmented and disjointed initiated by its specialized
agencies or funds at various World Summits and
Conferences to address three dimensions of
development — economic, social, and environmental.
The Millennium Declaration and Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) saw
the convergence of development agenda of United
Nations Development Program (UNDP);United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP); World health organization
(WHO); United
Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF); United Nations
Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
(UNESCO); and other development agencies.(1) Recently
adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) reflect
further strengthening convergence of the development
agenda. The SDGs also strengthen equity, human rights,
and nondiscrimination.
https://nation.com.pk/17-Aug-2020/new-pakistan-map-a-landmark-move
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/pakistan-pm-imran-khan-issues-new-
political-map-including-jammu-and-kashmir-parts-of-gujarat-869516.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/spotlight/kashmirtheforgottenconflict/2011/
06/2011615113058224115.html
Pakistan is on the brink of water disaster and its availability has decreased to 1,200 cubic meters per person
from 5,000 cubic meters in 1947 and is predicted to plunge to 800 cubic meters by 2020. This is alarming
situation and making the things even worse India has started many hydro power projects, dams, reservoirs and
barrages on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir.
Water dispute between Pakistan and India started when a boundary commission for demarcating
the international boundaries, in the states of Punjab and Bengal under the chairmanship of Sir Cyril
Radcliffe was constituted. He awarded most of the canals and the canal irrigated land to Pakistan, but the
sources of all the five tributaries of the Indus- Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej- remained in India.
Thus, India continued to be the "upstream riparian" of the Indus and its tributaries. To fully comprehend the
complication that the Indus River bears, it is essential to understand Indus River system.
Situation is going to get worse in future if India completed all its projects on Pakistani rivers flowing from
Kashmir into Pakistan. Many international authors and thinkers have already rung the alarm bell while
analyzing Pakistan’s water, food and energy security in future in context of Indian plans on Pakistani rivers and
clumsy response from many Pakistani governments in Islamabad.
Indus River Basin

Dispute between Pakistan and India on water can only be understood after getting an insight about Indus river
basin system.
Soon after independence, the problem drew the attention of the governments of India and Pakistan as both
countries wanted to extend irrigation on their side of border. Bilateral negotiations were initially held but
settlement was ultimately arrived under the patronage of the World Bank. In Sep. 1960, The Indus Water
Treaty was signed.
Under this treaty, Pakistan received exclusive rights to the water from the three Western rivers – Indus,
Jelum and Chenab – with an assured flow of about 166.46 x 109 m3 or 135 million acre-feet (MAF). Water
from three eastern rivers- Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, with an annual flow of 33 MAF were allocated to India. The
treaty established a transition period up to 31st March 1970 for Pakistan to construct its systems of works,
called Indus st Basin Replacement Plan. Meanwhile, India was to continue supply of water to Pakistan to
irrigate about 1.2 Mha area before replacement works (two storage dams, five barrages, one siphon and eight
link canal system) were completed. As a result, there is an impressive list of post independence irrigation works
in the Pakistan.
History of Indo-Pak Water Dispute

Prior to independence the British started to establish a linked canal system in various parts of subcontinent. For
this purpose number of headworks and canals were built, dams were envisioned.
On April 1st, 1948, India stopped supply of water to Pakistan from every canal flowing from India to Pakistan.
Pakistan protested and India finally agreed on an interim agreement on May 4, 1948 (Inter-Dominion Accord).
This accord required India to release sufficient waters to Pakistani regions of the basin in return for annual
payments from the government of Pakistan so this agreement was not a permanent solution.
By 1951, dispute had taken a very dangerous turn as both countries were not talking to each other on this
matter anymore and a war was very much at hands therefore, Pakistan approached the World Bank in 1952 to
help breaking the deadlock and settle the problem permanently. Negotiations were carried out between the
two countries through the offices of the World Bank for six years (1954-60). It was finally in Ayub
Khan's regime that an agreement was signed between India and Pakistan in September 1960. This agreement
is known as the Indus Water Treaty.
Indus Water Treaty 1960 (IWT)

This treaty divided the use of rivers and canals between the two countries. Pakistan obtained exclusive rights
for three western rivers, namely Indus, Jehlum and Chenab. And India retained rights to three eastern rivers,
namely Ravi, Beas and Sutluj. The treaty also guaranteed ten years of uninterrupted water supply. During this
period Pakistan was to build huge dams, financed partly by long-term World Bank loans and compensation
money from India but India denied money to Pakistan for this purpose.
After Indian denial of money The Bank responded with a plan for external financing supplied mainly by the
United States and the United Kingdom Three multipurpose dams, Warsak, Mangla and Tarbela were built. A
system of eight link canals was also built and the remodeling of existing canals was carried out. Five barrages
and a gated siphon were also constructed under this treaty.
Important points of IWT (Indus water Treaty)

1. India will have exclusive right over Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) until they crossed into Pakistan.
2. Pakistan will have exclusive rights over Western Rivers (Chenab, Jehlum and Indus)
3. India will be allowed to use Western River waters for non-consumption use only (excluding irrigation and
storage).
4. India will pay one time to Pakistan for loss of its water of Eastern Rivers.
5. A transitions period till 31 March 1970 will be maintained by both sides so that Pakistan can build its link
canal system to divert water from its Western Rivers to Eastern Rivers through these link canals.
6. Both sides will avoid building any man made structure which can change natural course of water.
7. Both sides will be responsible for maintaining Indus basin by adopting best practices available.
8. India will be bound to inform Pakistan about design of any work on Western river well before start of any
work on Western rivers.
9. If India construct any work on Western Rivers it will supply water downstream that was received by a dam or
barrage within 24 hours.
Indian Plans for Pakistani Rivers

IWT was a treaty heavily in favor of India. India got unrestricted allocation of Eastern Rivers and some limited
allocation on Western Rivers along with permission to complete under-construction dams and reservoir these
included Mahora, Ganderbal, Kupwara, Bhadarwah, Kishtwar, Rajouri, Chinani Nichalani Banihal etc. Pakistan
did accept accord as there were still guarantees and criteria to ensure water availability to Pakistan and this
was perhaps the last chance for settling the dispute peacefully.
India till this day has continued to pursue its dream of making Pakistan docile to fulfill Indian desires. To
achieve this dream India decided to manipulate provisions of IWT 1960 cleverly and now is in process of
building multiple dams and barrages clearly breaching the provisions described in the treaty. The aim is to
damage link canal system of Pakistan by blocking water in one season and to destroy ready crops in the other
season by releasing excessive waters through these dams and barrages. Diversion of water is also a disturbing
practice opted by India during recent years.
Below are the details of some of the current and proposed Indian projects on Western rivers. These details
clearly showcase intentions of India about water flow towards Pakistan.
• Chenab
India has already built 14 hydroelectric plants on Chenab River and is building more plants which will enable it
to block entire water of Chenab for 20-25 days. These dams have also enabled India to release huge quantity
of water downstream not only to cause damage to standing crops but also to our canal systems. Chenab River
provides water to 21 canals and irrigates about 7 million acres of agriculture land in Punjab province of
Pakistan.
• Baglihar Dam
Baglihar Dam is located near Doda (on river Chenab which according to Indus Water Treaty belongs to
Pakistan. Baglihar dam is 143 meters (470 feet) high, equal to world’s largest rockfilled dam at Tarbela,
Pakistan. The dam also houses gated spillways to control the flow of water of river Chenab.
India initiated this project in 1999 and spent more money than what was estimated. The increase in initial
estimated cost of the dam in 2002 resulted in Rs5 per unit (highest in India) increase cost of electricity to be
produced from the dam. Baglihar dam was the first project by Indian which was referred to neutral expert in the
World Bank.
Pakistan time and again reminded India about its reservations and concerns regarding this project but instead
of taking Pakistani concerns into consideration India continued construction of Baglihar dam even after the
matter was taken to World Bank for arbitration. Pakistan raised following concerns regarding design of the dam:
• Height of Dam: Height of freeboard (The vertical distance between the top of the dam and the full supply
level on the reservoir) of dam must be reduced as it is in excess of designed parameter of the dam.
• Gated spillways: India must abandon gated spillways design as it will enable India to manipulate water flow
by blocking. There must be only a run of river project.
• Poundage /Storage: Storage capacity of reservoir of the dam must be reduced so that flow of the river is not
interrupted.
The World Bank expert Raymond Lafitte approved the project in February 2007 but asked India to reduce
height of the freebed by one and a half meters and reduction in poundage of storage from Indian claimed 38
million cubic meter (MCM) to 32 million cubic meter whereas Pakistan asked to reduce it. Other objections
were rejected.
During 2008 Rabi sowing season (Jan-Mar) Pakistan suffered a loss of more than 20 billion rupees. Not only
that but production of Wheat crop along with petty crop like Rice, Cotton also got affected due to low water in
canals originated from Chenab.
Financial Viability of the project shows India is determined to cut flow of Pakistani rivers from Kashmir. Per MW
cost of electricity from Baglihar is Rs8.89 Corer which is much higher than other parts of India and the only
reason for that is the increased cost of the project which was initially estimated at Rs27 Billion but increased to
more than Rs40 billion. Despite this surge in cost India never showed any hesitation to undertake this
enterprise. Cost will further increase after India modified its design in order to implement verdict of neutral
expert which includes reducing height of free board of dam.
Hydrologic viability is another gauge of Indian intention behind this project. After commissioning second phase
of Baglihar total electricity out put will be 900 MW. The question here is; whether 900 MW production at
Baglihar viable? For how many days in a year the production could be maintained at that rate?
In its May 2005 issue, ‘Dams, Rivers & People’ reported, “It will require 860 cumecs of water (to generate 900
MW), but Chenab flow reduces to lower than that in winter. In fact flow in Chenab reduced to upto 50 cumecs.
The Indian authorities have not made public the hydrologic data or the projected power generation from the
project. The experience of the existing 690 MW Salal project on Chenab 480 MW Uri HEP on the adjoining
basin Jhelum shows that these projects in fact generate much less power in winter when the need for power is
maximum in J&K.”
So it is evident that purposes of the dam, electrical station, reservoir and gated spillways are much more than
what the Indians have projected about this dam.
• Salal Dam
This dam was built on River Chenab in 1987 and was commissioned in 1993; it is built downstream of Baglihar.
It is medium size dam with height of 113 meters and it has a reservoir level of 494 meters. Means it can block
water of Chenab. Water discharging from downstream of Baglihar reaches Salal.
India has always claimed that hydro projects in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK) are for the population of Jammu
and Kashmir but according to official sources of National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), the
main contractor and builder of many dams in India and Kashmir including Salal dam, electricity generated by
Salsal project will be provided to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Rajhisthan, and Uttar Pradesh,
and the union territory of Chandigarh.
Like always India told the world and Pakistan that this project is built adopting run-of- river method (without any
reservoir) but below image taken from Google Maps clearly exposes a reservoir and blocked water flow of
Chenab.
• Dul Hasti
Located in Kishtwar district Hydro-electric power project comprises a “diversion dam ” at ‘Dul’ across the river
Chenab and a power house at ‘Hasti’. Test runs begun in 2007. The dam was initiated by Prime Minister Indira
Gandhi way back in 1983. The dam infrastructure was demolished once by Kashmiri freedom fighters in early
1990s and work on dam was abandoned afterwards. The construction started later on the project. Once again
built in Kashmir, the dam benefits only parts of India including Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh,
Uttaranchal, Rajasthan and Chandigarh whereas Jammu and Kashmir will merely get 12% of royalty of the
project.
Concrete gravity dam of 185 m length and 65 m height has an un-gated spillway of 40 m and a gated spillway
of 64 m with 4 radial gates. Again gated spillways are there just to stop flow of water to Pakistan.
This dam also tells the same story how committed India is to carry the plan to barren Pakistan completely by
blocking flow of water of Pakistani rivers. Initial cost of the dam was estimated at Rs183 crore (in 1983) but due
to delays the project cost climbed to Rs5228 Corer. This is 28 times increase in cost but still India completed
this project and commissioned it on April 26, 2008. War is the only thing where any government can put so
much resources and time on a single project.
• Tawi-Ravi Link
River Tawi is a major left bank tributary of Chenab. It also flows into Pakistan along with Chenab and finally
joins latter. To steal river Tawi’s water India built a lift irrigation scheme on the left bank of Tawi River. Main
elements of this scheme are an uplift pump near Bahu fort in Jammu city and a canal system which joins
another canal, Ravi-Link canal, near Vijaypur. Ravi Link Canal is drawn out from right bank of river Ravi.
To send water into Tawi canal system, uplift water pumps lift water 31 meter higher from river level and put it
into canal from where it is send to Ravi-Link Canal so that India can use this water in Ravi River which was
given to India in IWT 1960.
• Future Plans of India on Chenab

Indian determination to make Pakistan barren in near future has pushed her nefarious designs up to next level.
All the above mentioned dams were not adequate to fulfill Indian designs against Pakistan therefore more
dams and reservoirs are planned on river Chenab according to next five-year development plan of India. Below
is the detail of these projects.
• Pakal Dul & other Chenab Basin Projects

Pakal Dul and two other projects aggregating to about 2100 MW in Chenab Basin are proposed to be
implemented through a Joint Venture Company in pursuance to MoU signed on 10.10.2008.
According to Indian ministry of water Pakal Dul (Drangdhuran) Hydroelectric Project is envisioned as a
reservoir based scheme proposed on river Marusudar, the main right bank tributary of river Chenab in Kishtwar
Tehsil of Doda District in Jammu & Kashmir. This is again a violation of IWT.
The Project envisages construction of a concrete face rock-fill dam across river Marusudar at village
Drangdhuran and an underground Powerhouse at a location 2 km upstream of Dul dam, near village Trimuli.
At Full Reservoir Level (EL 1700 M), the gross storage of the reservoir is 125.4 MCM. The project will cost
more than Rs5500 Corer.
After Baglihar, It will be interesting to see how an even higher dam affects the flow of Chenab and this is the
first time Indians are going to build a dam with reservoir and they have announced this plan vocally. Capacity of
the reservoir is another indication of how big this will be after completion. Baglihar with its 32 MCM can reduce
flow of 7000 cusecs to Pakistan it must be much easier to understand that what impact a reservoir with a
capacity of 124.4 MCM will have on downstream flow of the river.
Environmentally, this project can prove to be an ecological disaster as most of its submerged area will consist
of forests and agriculture lands. Submergence of forest land leads to loss of biodiversity and habitat destruction
of wildlife on the other hand submergence of agriculture land as well as dwelling require rehabilitation of ousted
people.
• The Bursar Hydroelectric Project
To complete the agenda of blocking water of Chenab India has stepped up its plans mainly encouraged by
clumsy and delayed response and quietness of Pakistani government on other above mentioned dams.
India wants a reservoir based dam upstream to all other dams i.e. Pakal Dul, Dul Hasti, Rattle, Baglihar,
Sawalkot and Salal Hydroelectric Projects, thereby enhancing the potential of all downstream schemes in
winter season as Chenab flow reduces to a large extent in winter. India needs enough water which she can
feed to its downstream dams then those dams will also store water and hence blocking entire water of Chenab
in winter season when Pakistani farmer sow wheat. This purpose will be served by The Bursar Hydroelectric
Project. It is declared Indian project and it is going to be a reservoir based dam.
According to Indian claims this will mitigate the shortage of water availability in the river during the winter
months. But this dam just like Pakal Dul will be built on Marusudar River a major right bank tributary of Chenab.
Pakal Dul dam itself will have a storage capacity of 125 MCM besides this Bursar another dam will be a 252m
high rockfill dam these two dams will give India total control of this major tributary of Chenab.
Once again a project built on Pakistani river flowing in a disputed territory will serve Indian states Himachal
Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan, Union territories of Chandigarh & Delhi.
• Jehlum
Jehlum is second in list of Western Rivers which were given to Pakistani according to IWT in 1960. Indian plans
to block water of Pakistani Rivers ajre not limited to Chenab. Jehlum is the next target of India. Indian schemes
on this river are more impudent and will violate IWT much more meanly.
On Chenab Indian are busy building dams with excessive poundage capacities while on Jhelum plans are more
inline with diversion of water from Jehlum and its tributaries so that flow of river can be reduced when it cross
into Pakistan.
• Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project
This barrage is going to be built on river Jelhum near mouth of Wullar Lake near Sopore town in Kashmir.
Wullar is largest fresh water lake in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan gave it the name according to design of
project i.e. Wullar Barrage while India once
again to deceive everybody around calls it Tulbul Navigation Project.
Barrages are built mainly to divert water from rivers into canals for irrigation or link purposes. India has no such
provision on Jehlum under IWT. This barrage was proposed in 1984 when tension between Pakistan and India
was high. Mostly projects built on Western rivers were conceived in 1980s. India claims that this barrage will
make Jehlum navigable in summer while Pakistan knows that India will use it as a geo-strategic weapon to
manipulate flow of water specifically in winter.
This project is a clear violation of IWT as according to IWT India is not allowed to built any man- made structure
on Western river which can interrupt flow of any of these rivers. This proposed barrage will eventually have a
potential to destroy whole triple canal system which Pakistan built after IWT was signed. This system includes
major canals which irrigate millions of acres in Punjab and consists of Upper Jhelum Canal, Upper Chenab
Canal and the Lower Bari Doab Canal.
According to the original Indian plan, the barrage was expected to be of 439-feet long and 40-feet wide, and
would have a maximum storage capacity of 0.30 million acres feet of water.
What India has done to Pakistan in case of Baglihar dam there is no reason to believe what India is telling the
world about this project. World Bank once again favored India on this project as well and could not force her to
abandon the project when the matter was referred to it in 1986 eventually Pakistan was forced to knock the
door of International Arbitral Court in 1987 when India was forced to stop further construction work.
Wullar Barrage is one of the agenda item in composite dialogue between Pakistan and India and after more
than 10 rounds there is no progress as usual due to Indian persistence that this project is rightful under IWT.
• KishanGanga
Once again India named this project as such so that real intention can be concealed. Kishanganga project is
going to be a dam on river Neelam, known as Kishanganga in Indian Held Kashmir. Geologically it is an
extremely complex project as it will have a 27 km long tunnel to divert water of Neelam from its natural course
which is a clear violation of IWT. This tunnel will be connected to Jehlum in South through North Kashmir
mountain range.
The tunnel will initiate and take water from a 103 meter high reservoir on river Neelam. This reservoir is also
part of the project and will submerge almost the entire Gurez valley along the AJK's Neelum valley but for India
any ecological disaster is miner thing to take into consideration when it comes to blocking or diverting Pakistani
water so these concerns were never taken up by higher echelons in New Delhi.
The plan is to change the course of river Neelam about 100 km from its natural course and link it to Jehlum at
Wullar Lake near Bandipur through a channel and above mentioned tunnel.
Presently, the Neelam and Jhelum rivers join each other at Muzaffarabad at a point called Domail. Through the
proposed Wullar barrage project, India claims to maintain constant yearly flow in Jhelum but in reality this 100-
kilometer diversion of the Neelum River, Pakistan's Neelum Valley could dry up and become a desert.
The most important issue here is the diversion of the Neelum River waters to the Wuller Lake. According to
some estimates, the diversion will also reduce the flow of water into Pakistan by a factor in between 25 percent
to 33 percent. Further it will ruin Pakistan’s Neelum-Jhelum project as water of Neelam will be diverted by India
already from its 14 natural course and power generation capacity of the project will reduce to an extent that
sole purpose of the project would die. Blueprints and technical stipulations for this project were finalized in 1997
and WAPDA selected this project in 2001 for execution under its Vision 2025.
India is going to complete its project after a gap of 18 years and the cost have gone up by 68% than what it
was estimated at the time of its inception.
India wants to gain control over Neelam and that’s why she has decided to initiate work on the project in 2008
and complete it by January 2016. Although the matter is disputed between two countries but Indian intentions
are to exploit condition in IWT which allow control over Neelam’s water to whoever completes their project first.
In 2008, Indian minister for water affairs, Jairam Ramesh, said,“This project is of strategic importance to India.
We will shortly take the revised cost estimates of Rs3,700 crore ($928 million) for the project for the cabinet’s
approval. We have to move heaven and earth to ensure the earliest commissioning of the project,” This
statement must be an eye opener for anyone who still has any doubt about Indian plans about making Pakistan
barren in near future.
This project would pose a serious threat to wildlife in and around Wullar Lake and also affect people who live
on the banks of Neelam and utilise its water for daily usage. Even environmentalists in India have objected to
the project.
Once again the beneficiary states include Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal,
Rajasthan, Union Territory of Chandigarh & Delhi for a project which is going to be executed in Jammu and
Kashmir and was claimed to be a project for local population of Jammu and Kashmir.
• URI Power Project

Uri hydro power project is next dam on a Pakistani river where a dam is constructed. Uri is a town on the river
Jhelum in the Baramula district, in Jammu and Kashmir . The town is very near to LoC. This project consists of
a 52 m high and 152 meter long dam with 4 spillways.
Indian claims that purpose of the project was to generate cheap electricity from run of river project. In reality
this project is already causing many problems to locals and to ecosystem as well.
According to Jan 2006 issue of ‘Dams, River and people’ it was expected to generate full output almost
continuously for five months of the year (April-Aug) with production falling to lower levels in the winter.
Further it was stated that project has cost 98% more than initial estimates meaning doubling the cost of power
generated and yet it performed 27% less than what was envisaged since its commissioning in 1996-97. NHPC,
company which has built the dam admitted in 2004-05 that URI is a non-peaking station and the result is low
performance and huge cost of the electricity produced by this project which is too high to buy for state of
Jammu and Kashmir.
Uri project was executed without a proper plan for the people affected by the project and their compensation is
due compensation issues remain unresolved over eight years after completion of the project.
Instead of learning some lesson from its mistakes made in Uri-I, India has announced to undertake Uri-II hydro
power project which will be built downstream to Uri-I.
Accordingly to NHPC this Project is planned immediately downstream of Uri-I and will pick up its tail water to
make use of the gross head of about 130m available in the course of the river between Uri-I tailrace outlet and
a place located about 1.25 km downstream of the confluence of Goalta Nallah and Jhelum River, close to
the Line of Control (LoC).
It is strange to go for such a project which is located at line of fire despite the failure of Uri-I which already has
destroyed another old 1962 built Mohra HEP of 9 MWas URI diverts all the water from upstream of this project.
Now this must be no surprise why
16 after so many failures in one single project India has given a go-ahead to its second extension at the same
location.
From all above mentioned projects it has become clear that Indian intentions about Pakistani waters are very
malicious. India is very carefully choosing spots on Western Rivers so that it can block flow of water despite
small size of dams and reservoirs. These spots are located in areas where rivers flow very low in winter
season. Even small and medium size dams on these spot on rivers and their tributaries will enable India to
manipulate water flow if it is desired.
• Indus
Indus is largest river in Pakistan and largest of all three Western rivers which were allocated to Pakistan under
IWT in 1960. the river initiates from China and reaches Jammu and Kashmir region and flow there for a
kilometer and then cross into Northern
areas of Pakistan and take its natural turn towards south in KPK and continues for almost 1700 kilometer
towards south passing through Punjab and Sindh before it finally falls into Arabian Sea.
Indus is fed from nine Himalayan glaciers and number of tributaries also initiated from Himalayan ranges.
Although Indus and its tributaries belong to Pakistan as per IWT but India has started building dams (work on
minimum three is underway) on Indus main and its tributaries to interrupt flow of Indus before it cross into
Pakistan.
According to media reports Indian Parliament has approved construction of 500 km long train track from
Hamachel Pradesh to Ladakh which would be utilised for transportation of construction material for Kargil dam
and three other reservoirs being built on the Indus River.
Below are the details of dams Indian are building on Indus:
• Nimoo Bazgo
Nimoo Bazgo is 57 m (187 feet) high Concrete Gravity dam which is under construction on main Indus River.
The main site is located 70 km from Leh and work is already underway.
Once again Indian claim that this is a run-on-river scheme but looking at average availability of water in the
river in winter it is hard to believe that this is a hydro power project. India initiated this dam in November 2006
and completion is planned to be happen in October 2010.
The dam is being built on a location where seven sub watersheds join Indus and the dam is going to face a
problem of muck due to geology of the site. The area is highly non forest so nothing will stop water from brining
mud along with water which would have a possibility to stop water flow completely.
India seems to be in hurry to complete this project so a massive workforce is deployed on the site and almost
75 percent of the work has been completed.
India is spending Rs6.11 billion just to produce 45 MW electricity and that would only possible when power
station works on full capacity which is not possible in winter when glaciers stop melting.
The more interesting thing to note here is Indian contractor (NHPC) never released any data on its website
regarding capacity of the reservoir and type of spillways which is really disturbing as any gated spillways on
Indus would enable India to block every drop of water flowing into Pakistan.
• The Dumkhar
Following the pattern of building multiple dams on western rivers in single area, which was adopted on Chenab,
India is perusing its plan daringly for Indus river as well and there has been a urgency in this drive since last
year or so. After Nimoo-Bagzo, India’s next dam would be some 48 km downstream i.e. Dumkhar hydro power
porject. The project is located 128 Km from Leh near Dumkhar village.
The Dumkhar project envisages construction of a 42 m high concrete gravity dam across river Indus. This dam
would also house two diversion tunnels although the project is a run on river but still diversion tunnels will affect
the flow of water particularly in winter
season.
Again no data is given about reservoir and discharge spillways (gated or ungated) is provided by Indian
authorities
.
• Chutak Hydroelectric Project
Just like tributaries of Chenab Indian belligerence is once again evident by Chutak dam which India is building
on river Suru. River Suru is one of major Indus river tributary.
The barrage of the project is located near Sarzhe Village and the power house will be located on the right bank
of river Suru near Chutak Village. The project is located near Kargil airfield of Inain Air Force.
Other Issues
• River training works like spurs and groynes
IWT prevents both countries from building any structure that can change natural flow of water from its natural
course. India has built river training works on Ravi River opposite to Narowal (Pakistan). Narowal has suffered
a dreadful flood in 1992-93 in monsoon when India released excessive water into Ravi River.
River Training Works usually carried out to divert the flow of a river for some other construction work like
bridge, dams, barrages etc.
• International Water warfare against Pakistan

After blocking its water in Kashmir by building multiple dams on Pakistani rivers now India has taken this water
war beyond bilateral level. Currently due to changed geo political environment India has excellent relation with
puppet Afghan government.
By harnessing these relations now India is pursuing an agenda of persuading Afghan government to build a big
dam on Kabul River so that its flow into Indus River in Pakistan can be blocked.
Afghanistan at present utilities just a fraction of Kabul waters to irrigate about 12,000 acres of land. According
to new proposed plans a dam will be constructed on the Kabul River and will set up Kama Hydroelectric Project
to utilize 0.5 MAF water to irrigate additional 14,000 acres.
Any dam on Kabul River will affect its flow into Indus especially in winter as Indus emits from glaciers which
melt less in winter and some of these glaciers don’t melt in winter season at all.
Indian plans don’t end here. This is just beginning of a very troublesome water policy by India towards
Pakistan. Below is list of Indian planned dams on Pakistani rivers all these dams along with completed projects
will enable India to block Pakistani water for a considerably long period of the time.
• Planned dams / Barrages on Pakistani Rivers

According to Jammu and Kashmir State Power Development Corporation Ltd following projects would also built
on Pakistani rivers.
Jhelum River Basin

• Lower Jhelum
• Upper Sindh-I
• Ganderbal
• Upper Sindh-II
• Pahalgam
• Karnah
Chenab Basin
• Chenani-I
• Chennai-II
• Chenani-III
• Bhaderwah
• Baglihar-II
Indus Basin
• Iqbal
• Hunder
• Sumoor
• Igo-Mercellong
• Haftal
• Marpachoo
• Bazgo Stakna (with J&KPDD)
Impact of Indian dams in Kashmir over Pakistan

• Apart from huge storage capacities of above-mentioned dams time of their filling is also a high concern for
Pakistan for example Baglihar Dam can block 7000 cusecs of water per day whenever India wishes to. Storage
of water in Baglihar Dam reduced the flow of water in Chenab River during the sowing period of August to
October 2008 and badly affected the agriculture sector of Pakistan. Pakistan lost 23000 cusecs of water;
farmers could not irrigate their fields due to shortage of water and resultantly 3.5 million agriculture tracts got
barren. The standing cotton, paddy crops of basmati rice of Kharif season in Punjab which were ripe got badly
affected.
The sowing of next crop of wheat in September-October also got affected and so was the case with Rabi crop
in January-February this year due to reduced flow of water.
The Baglihar Dam together with Dul Hasti and other dams can plainly diminish the flow of Chenab during the
vital Rabi crop-sowing season (January and February).
• Both countries have allocated resources and have shown will to fight with time to gain control over Neelam.
For Pakistan it is a matter of survival, once control over Neelam lost life of Mangla dam would be at risk and the
entire investment made on Neelam-Jehlum project will also be wasted.
• In worst case scenario, agriculture and electricity aside, Indian blockade of Pakistani water will tear apart
Pakistani social fabric as there will be a severe reduction in productivity and millions of people will be deprived
of food and water. Riots in large cities and towns may erupt and this would jolt the law and order situation in the
country. Such incidents with less intensity have already taken place in Pakistan against constant load-shedding
of electricity. Trains and infrastructure was set on fire in some cities, roads were blocked in other and
thousands of employees lost their jobs.
The impact will be multifold in case of water scarcity. Millions of people in Punjab, NWFP and Sindh are directly
or indirectly related to agriculture sector. These people will be worst sufferers and as a result of no agriculture
productivity those who are not related to agriculture would also get affected as there would be no food item like
wheat, sugar, rice, cotton etc. in market. As a result of mass hunger, provinces can also turn into hostile
neighbors to which eventually would weaken Pakistani state. The country would descend into battles, riots and
quarrels over food and water like many African countries.
• India in the past have released excessive water into rivers crossing into Pakistan and as a result severe
floods in KPK, Punjab and some parts of Sindh as well played havoc. The 1992 flood is one such example
when India released excessive water into Ravi River which badly affected lands of Punjab and Norowal district
in particular.
Other than flood there are multiple concerns over Indian plans vis-à-vis Pakistani interests like
• In May 2009, Chairman Indus Water Council Pakistan and Coordinator World Water Assembly Zahoorul
wrote that ‘Indian water terrorism’ posed more serious threat to Pakistan than Taliban. He said the pace with
which India was diverting Pakistani rivers, the day is not far off when the country would face situation like
Somalia, Ethiopia and Chad.
• Indian water aggression will destroy local industry and agriculture. Trailer of this horror movie has already
been played during Rabi season last year when India started to fill Baglihar dam despite knowing it was sowing
season in Pakistan. With even larger dams India will be able to stop Pakistani water for entire season which will
destroy linked canal system of Pakistan.
• Chutak is under construction on River Suru. In case any of these dams collapse or large quantity of water is
deliberately released, it will not only endanger our proposed Bhasha dam but also submerge Skardu city and
airport. KKH between Besham and Jaglot would wash away.
• Uri Power Project is located very near to LoC and the world knows that LoC is a constant flashpoint where
exchange of artillery fire always remains probable. Any such fire exchange put this project at risk as well but
still Indians are pushing it hence it is evident that India wants Pakistan to take a provoking step in this sector
and India can use this opportunity to attack Azad Jummu Kashmir.
Dams Despite problems…Why?
Most notable aspect of Indian water aggression is that India has a poor record of dam safety. Many projects
after or during execution have ran into serious technical hazards;
• Two persons died and a dozen were injured when a tunnel of the prestigious Dul Hasti hydro project
collapsed on January 29th 2007. The incident took place a the day before the National Hydro Power
Corporation (NHPC) was scheduled to carry out trial run. This happened due to use of substandard material.
The hydel project on river Chenab near Kishtwar (Doda) had been in controvers ever since the French
consortium Domez Sogia Boresea stopped work midway after the abduction of one of its engineer in 1992.
Four years later, NHPC engaged Jai Parkash Industries to execute the civil works and at that time, the project
was estimated to be commissioned by October 2003 at a cost of Rs4,000 crore. Now, the project cost has
increased to Rs5,000 crore, with NHPC authorities expecting to complete it by March.
Consequences! Wars on waterSituation

in Pakistan
India is executing a massive plan of hydro power plants in Kashmir using Pakistani waters. Electricity produced
from these rivers will be provided to all neighboring states of Jammu and Kashmir whereas situation in Pakistan
is really dispiriting when one looks at hydro production in Pakistan.
Pakistan could not build any big reservoir after Mangla and Tarbela dams. No new barrage was constructed
either to increase the area under cultivation. Population increase over the years has made the situation
worrisome for planners to allocate adequate per capita energy and food resources.
Currently, Pakistan has 40,000 MW hydro Power potential on river Indus alone while combined estimate of
whole Indus basin river system surpasses the figure of 70,000 MW. But unfortunately only 5000 MW is being
produced at the moment which is merely 12.5% of total potential. Pakistan is going to face severe shortage of
power as from 2010 on wards demand is going to hit 25,000 MW whereas the capacity will go down further with
rusting and problems in older thermal plants.
Existing total installed capacity in Pakistan is 17,726 MW including total Hydel 5010 MW ( Ranges from 1990
MW to 5120 MW due to seasonal variations) , total Thermal 12,254 MW and Nuclear Power 462 MW. The
Thermal Portion also includes 5813 MW from the private sector.
Policy Recommendations
• Water security must be an integral part of Pakistan’s defense policy. To make sure that Pakistani rivers
(Indus, Chenab, Jehlum, Nelam) keep flowing normally Pakistan must utilise every possible mean from legal to
military.
• Pakistan must declare its response in case India tries to divert or block Pakistani water in Kashmir. Parliament
and military brass must form a uniform and cohesive policy to counter this existential threat.
• An aggressive and principled position must be taken at global level on water issue with India. It must be aired
at every international forum that consequences of Indian water belligerence towards Pakistan would be worst
and would put lives of 1.5 billion people of the region at risk.
• Power generation by hydro power plants must be encouraged at all levels and government must set a clear
target of building specific number of dams to fulfill the needs of energy and irrigation and also to reduce oil
export bill which currently is being used in thermal power plants.
• Parliament must define a maximum threshold time period, based on estimates of population growth and
increase in local demand, after it must become necessary for ruling government to initiate at least one large
reservoir in the country.
• To overcome the loss of water for the last three decades Pakistan needs more than one big dam and
Kalabagh dam is one such project which can fulfill the needs of the country. Political parties must constitute a
team and must review objections of Sindh and NWFP provinces on this project and must come up with a
workable solution instead of criminally putting the most important project in cold storage as the current
government in Islamabad has done.
• After Baglihar experience, Pakistan must have no doubt about Indian intentions about Pakistani rivers flowing
from Kashmir. Pakistan needs real time imagery satellite to monitor its rivers in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK) and
Indian activities on these rivers. So more funds for scientific research and development are recommended
here. For interim bases friendly countries like China can be approached to get satellite imagery of Western
Rivers. There are reports that India has stolen water from Indus via a tunnel. These kinds of activities can only
be monitored in real time using satellite technology.
• Bigger hydel power projects must be completed at priority like Munda power project, Kohala Power project
etc.
• An aggressive policy is needed to be adopted on funding problems for Diamir- Basha dam as it is the only big
reservoir on Indus which can ensure water security of the country. Government must also approach friendly
countries like China, UAE for the project if World Bank and Asian Development bank fail to provide finances for
the project.
• Pakistani government must take local people around the project sites into confidence as India has already
launched massive propaganda mission against proposed dam in Gilgat and Baltistan. Below is one example;
…“First, the people and political parties of the NA such as Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), Gilgit-
Baltistan Alliance (GBNA), Jammu Kashmir All Parties National Alliance (APNA) accuse Islamabad of ignoring
them before announcing the construction of the dam. This ignorance has taken the shape of mass
demonstrations and protest movements.”….
• Reports suggest that Rs537 billions external assistance is expected for Indian planned projects on Jehlum
and Indus Rivers. This is a clear case of international hypocrisy as World Bank denounced any aid for Pakistani
dam on Indus in Northern Areas (Diamir-Basha, Bonji etc) on a pretext of location of these dams being in a
disputed area. The fact is that all Indian dams in Jammu and Kashmir are also in disputed area since the entire
region is disputed as per UNO between Pakistan and India. How come India can get massive foreign
assistance for hydro projects in Kashmir if Pakistan can’t get similar assistance for similar projects in its own
Northern Area? Pakistan foreign office must take up this matter with international donors. An awareness
campaign must be launched in local and international media to highlight this duality by international donors.
• Kashmir is sensitive for both India and Pakistan and without any local support India will try to avoid war in this
sector but will use every possibility to damage Pakistani agriculture sector by blocking waters and would try to
maintain her peaceful posture in international community by propaganda. To counter this Pakistan must rush to
approach International Court of Justice for its share of water which India did block in 2008 through Baglihar
dam and which is very probable in near future as well. A strong case in International courts would put
international construction companies and donors not to provide assistance in any water project on Western
Rivers in Jammu and Kashmir.
• Pakistan must ask India to provide complete record of its activities on Western rivers. This is important
because under IWT either party must notify the other of plans to construct any engineering work which could
affect the other party and to provide data about such works.
• If India delivers information about its future plans on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir, the matter could be taken up
in parliament by political forces. While a group of experts in WAPDA and Water and Power ministry must come
up with a report about potential side effects of any such project being executed on Pakistani rivers so that solid
objections can be raised on proposed Indian projects on Western Rivers.
Kashmir: Why India and Pakistan fight over it
How old is this fight?
Kashmir is an ethnically diverse Himalayan region, covering around 86,000 sq miles (138 sq km),
and famed for the beauty of its lakes, meadows and snow-capped mountains.
Even before India and Pakistan won their independence from Britain in August 1947, the area
was hotly contested.
Under the partition plan provided by the Indian Independence Act, Kashmir was free to accede
to either India or Pakistan.
The maharaja (local ruler), Hari Singh, initially wanted Kashmir to become independent - but in
October 1947 chose to join India, in return for its help against an invasion of tribesmen from
Pakistan.
Kashmir profile – Timeline
A war erupted and India approached the United Nations asking it to intervene. The United
Nations recommended holding a plebiscite to settle the question of whether the state would
join India or Pakistan. However the two countries could not agree to a deal to demilitarise the
region before the referendum could be held.
In July 1949, India and Pakistan signed an agreement to establish a ceasefire line as
recommended by the UN and the region became divided.
A second war followed in 1965. Then in 1999, India fought a brief but bitter conflict with
Pakistani-backed forces.
By that time, India and Pakistan had both declared themselves to be nuclear powers.
Today, Delhi and Islamabad both claim Kashmir in full, but control only parts of it - territories
recognised internationally as "Indian-administered Kashmir" and "Pakistan-administered
Kashmir".
Why is there so much unrest in the Indian-administered part?
An armed revolt has been waged against Indian rule in the region for three decades, claiming
tens of thousands of lives.
India blames Pakistan for stirring the unrest by backing separatist militants in Kashmir - a charge
its neighbour denies.
Now a sudden change to Kashmir's status on the Indian side has created further apprehension.
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AINUDDIN KIBZAI Current Affairs-2020 ESHAAL KIBZAI IBIBZAI2
Indian-administered Kashmir has held a special position within the country historically, thanks
to Article 370 - a clause in the constitution which gave it significant autonomy, including its own
constitution, a separate flag, and independence over all matters except foreign affairs, defence
and communications.
Why a special law on Kashmir is controversial?
What happened in Kashmir and why it matters?
On 5 August, India revoked that seven-decade-long privileged status - as the governing party,
the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had promised in its 2019 election manifesto. The Hindu
nationalist BJP has long opposed Article 370 and had repeatedly called for its abolishment.
Telephone networks and the internet were cut off in the region in the days before the
presidential order was announced. Public gatherings were banned, and tens of thousands of
troops were sent in. Tourists were told to leave Kashmir under warnings of a terror threat.
Two former chief ministers of Jammu and Kashmir - the Indian state which encompasses the
disputed territory - were placed under house arrest.
One of them, Mehbooba Mufti, said the move would "make India an occupational force in
Jammu and Kashmir," and that "today marks the darkest day in Indian democracy".
Pakistan fiercely condemned the development, branding it "illegal" and vowing to "exercise all
possible options" against it.
It downgraded diplomatic ties with India and suspended all trade. India responded by saying
they "regretted" Pakistan's statement and reiterating that Article 370 was an internal matter as
it did not interfere with the boundaries of the territory.
Within Kashmir, opinions about the territory's rightful allegiance are diverse and strongly held.
Many do not want it to be governed by India, preferring either independence or union with
Pakistan instead.
Religion is one factor: Jammu and Kashmir is more than 60% Muslim, making it the only state
within India where Muslims are in the majority.
Critics of the BJP fear this move is designed to change the state's demographic make-up of - by
giving people from the rest of the country to right to acquire property and settle there
permanently.
Ms Mufti told the BBC: "They just want to occupy our land and want to make this Muslim-
majority state like any other state and reduce us to a minority and disempower us totally."
Feelings of disenfranchisement have been aggravated in Indian-administered Kashmir by high

unemployment, and complaints of human rights abuses by security forces battling street
protesters and fighting insurgents.
108
Anti-India sentiment in the state has ebbed and flowed since 1989, but the region witnessed a
fresh wave of violence after the death of 22-year-old militant leader Burhan Wani in July 2016.
He died in a battle with security forces, sparking massive protests across the valley.
Wani - whose social media videos were popular among young people - is largely credited with
reviving and legitimising the image of militancy in the region.
The teenager blinded by pellets in Kashmir 'Modi's Kashmir move will fuel resentment' WATCH: The
boy drawing Kashmir's conflict
Thousands attended Wani's funeral, which was held in his hometown of Tral, about 40km (25
miles) south of the city of Srinagar. Following the funeral, people clashed with troops and it set
off a deadly cycle of violence that lasted for days.
More than 30 civilians died, and others were injured in the clashes. Since then, violence has
been on the rise in the state.
More than 500 people were killed in 2018 - including civilians, security forces and militants - the
highest toll in a decade.
Weren't there high hopes for peace in the new century?
India and Pakistan did indeed agree a ceasefire in 2003 after years of bloodshed along the de
facto border (also known as the Line of Control).
Pakistan later promised to stop funding insurgents in the territory, while India offered them an
amnesty if they renounced militancy.
In 2014, India's current Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power promising a tough line on
Pakistan, but also showed interest in holding peace talks.
Nawaz Sharif, then prime minister of Pakistan, attended Mr Modi's swearing-in ceremony in
Delhi.
But a year later, India blamed Pakistan-based groups for an attack on its airbase in Pathankot in
the northern state of Punjab. Mr Modi also cancelled a scheduled visit to the Pakistani capital,
Islamabad, for a regional summit in 2017. Since then, there hasn't been any progress in talks
between the neighbours.
Are we back to square one?
The bloody summer of street protests in Indian-administered Kashmir in 2016 had already
dimmed hopes for a lasting peace in the region.
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Then, in June 2018, the state government there was upended when Mr Modi's BJP pulled out of
a coalition government run by Ms Mufti's People's Democratic Party.
Jammu and Kashmir was since under direct rule from Delhi, which fuelled further anger.
The deaths of more than 40 Indian soldiers in a suicide attack on 14 February, 2019 have ended
any hope of a thaw in the immediate future. India blamed Pakistan-based militant groups for
the violence - the deadliest targeting Indian soldiers in Kashmir since the insurgency began
three decades ago.
Following the bombing, India said it would take "all possible diplomatic steps" to isolate
Pakistan from the international community.
On 26 February, it launched air strikes in Pakistani territory which it said targeted militant
bases.
Pakistan shows off disputed air strike site
Pakistan's dilemma over anti-India militants
Pakistan denied the raids had caused major damage or casualties but promised to respond,
fuelling fears of confrontation. A day later it said it had shot down two Indian Air Force jets in
its airspace, and captured a fighter pilot - who was later returned unharmed to India.
So what happens next?
India's parliament has now passed a bill splitting Indian-administered Kashmir into two
territories governed directly by Delhi: Jammu and Kashmir, and remote, mountainous Ladakh.
China, which shares a disputed border with India in Ladakh, has objected to the reorganisation
and accused Delhi of undermining its territorial sovereignty.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan has vowed to challenge India's actions at the UN security
council, and take the matter to the International Criminal Court.
In an ominous warning, he said: "If the world does not act today... (if) the developed world does
not uphold its own laws, then things will go to a place that we will not be responsible for."
But Delhi insists that there is no "external implication" to its decision to reorganise the state as
it has not changed the Line of Control or boundaries of the region.
US President Donald Trump has offered to mediate in the crisis - an overture that Delhi has
rejected.
110
The Latest Kashmir Conflict
On August 5, India decided to take a long-considered move using article 370 of its constitution
to change the status of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Although this has long been a part of
the platform of Prime Minister Narenda Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the overwhelming
majority of parliamentarians across all parties supported the decision—with 351 votes for and
72 against. Even the general secretary of the opposition Congress Party expressed his approval.
This has been a move long in the making, with the backing of a wide swath of Indian political
actors. But, the question remains, why now?
New Delhi made this move in an effort to stabilize Jammu and Kashmir and integrate it more
fully with the Indian state. The Modi government’s decision is aimed at promoting local
governance and encouraging investment in a state that has lagged behind for decades. The lack
of effective local governance has hampered the development of the entire state of Jammu and
Kashmir, including Ladakh, Jammu, and tourism dependant areas like Sonamarg and Gulmarg.
Although much criticized, New Delhi’s stepped-up security and communications restrictions
implemented along with the August 5 decision were lifted in 136 of 197 police station areas.
Many schools have also reopened. Jammu and Kashmir will gradually return to normal, barring
any terrorist activity or violence.
India believes that the accession of Jammu and Kashmir is final, and any unfinished business
regarding partition of the greater Kashmir region only concerns areas occupied by Pakistan.
Reorganizing Jammu and Kashmir made no territorial changes, but sought to more closely
integrate the state with the rest of India. Therefore, for India, the dispute between India and
Pakistan remains unchanged.
The advancement of U.S.-Taliban talks, and the imminence of a deal, has demonstrated to India
that the U.S. is serious about withdrawing from Afghanistan. India fears that this could lead to
history repeating itself. When another superpower, the Soviet Union, left Afghanistan some 30
years ago, intense terrorism in Kashmir immediately followed, as those who fought the Soviets
turned to India.
To India, Islamabad’s objections to the move ring hollow. Over the years, Pakistan has
unilaterally changed the status of other territories it occupies in the greater Kashmir region,
namely Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Just last year, Pakistan changed the structure of Azad
Kashmir’s government. India protested the change. But, unlike Pakistani Prime Minister Khan’s
warning of a heightened risk of war and terrorism following the August 5 decision, India did not
resort to threats over Azad Kashmir.
Islamabad now has a choice. It can continue to support terrorism in Kashmir, which has not only
devastated the region, but also severely hurt Pakistan’s economy. Or it can choose to cease
such support and focus on its internal economic problems. Once the threat of terrorism is
removed, there will surely be room for dialogue.
111
By rooting out terrorism, Pakistan can focus on economic development and more effectively
leverage its immense resources to boost its economy. This could encourage economic linkages
across the region, leading to greater regional stability in the long run.
What are the consequences for India, Pakistan and the region?
Jilani: India’s unilateral decision to revoke Article 370 of its constitution has severely hampered
the chances of a renewal of the peace process between New Delhi and Islamabad. From
Pakistan's perspective the Indian action constitutes a grave violation of the U.N. Security
Council resolutions on Kashmir and bilateral Pakistan-India agreements, such as the 1972
Shimla Agreement and the Lahore Declaration.
Prime Minister Narenda Modi’s government’s decision will have far reaching consequences for
Pakistan-India relations and regional peace and security. Islamabad says that increased
repression and human rights violations by Indian forces in Indian Occupied Kashmir will breed
violence, fuel indigenous uprising, and further generate tension with Pakistan. Yet, since August
5, India has mobilized hundreds of thousands of troops, detained thousands of Kashmiris, and
imposed a curfew resulting in food and medicine shortages. In Islamabad’s eyes, the disputed
region of Jammu and Kashmir has become a garrison area.
With the illegal steps taken by the Indian government—imposition of curfew, arrests of political
leaders and blockade of communications—the situation has reached a tipping point.
Intensifying violence in Indian-occupied Kashmir poses serious challenges for Pakistan and the
region. These challenges include:
For Pakistan, Kashmir remains the core issue and Islamabad cannot envision a dialogue with
India that excludes the Kashmir issue.
Islamabad rejects India’s claim that Kashmir is an internal matter, pointing to past and present
international and bilateral calls for a peaceful resolution through dialogue. India’s move violates
multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions and is unacceptable to Pakistan and the international
community.
The faint hope for a reasonable settlement based on the four-point formula—which became
the basis of back-channel negotiations during the 2004-08 peace process and envisaged self-
governance for Kashmiris, demilitarization, travel across the Line of Control and a monitoring
mechanism, while also protecting the vital interests of the two countries—has been
extinguished.
Pakistan fears India could stage a false flag in either Jammu and Kashmir or mainland India and
blame it on Pakistan in order to divert attention from the volatile situation in Kashmir.
The possibility of direct Indian intervention in Azad Kashmir or subversion inside Pakistan
cannot be ruled out. In case India directly intervenes in Pakistan or in Azad Kashmir or Gilgit-
Baltistan (both of which are part of what the U.N. calls Pakistan-administered Kashmir), it could
result in war between the nuclear powers with incalculable implications for both countries and
the region.
The outcome of the current Indian actions could result in more refugees from India into
Pakistan.
112
The latest Indian action will complicate the resolution of other long-standing disputes over
issues like the Siachen Glacier and Sir Creek.
The Indian decision will adversely impact people-to-people contacts and trade relations
between the two countries.
Tension between India and Pakistan will have a negative impact on regional security. The South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation process is already suspended due to India-Pakistan
tensions. India’s move is a further blow to regional cooperation.
Irrespective of India’s actions, the fact is that Kashmir is an internationally recognized disputed
territory and will remain so until the legitimate aspirations of the Kashmiris are fulfilled. India’s
repression in Kashmir is unlikely to change this reality.
113
What Is Article 370, and Why Does It Matter in Kashmir?
Kashmir, a mountainous valley that borders Pakistan and India, has been a center of conflict
between the two nuclear-armed countries since the 1947 partition of British India.
At the time of the partition, the British agreed to divide their former colony into two countries:
Pakistan, with a Muslim majority, and India, with a Hindu majority. Both nations covet Kashmir,
which is Muslim majority, and occupy portions of it with military forces.
For decades, an uneasy stalemate has prevailed, broken by occasional military incursions,
terrorist attacks and police crackdowns. But on Monday, the Indian government decided to
permanently incorporate the territory it controls into the rest of India.
The administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi revoked Article 370 of the Indian
constitution, a 70-year-old provision that had given autonomy to the state of Jammu and
Kashmir, which includes the Hindu-majority area of Jammu and the Muslim-majority Kashmir
valley.
The government also introduced a bill to strip the region of statehood and divide it into two
parts, both under direct control of the central government.
But Mr. Modi, a Hindu nationalist, had campaigned for re-election in part by stoking patriotic
fervor against Muslim-led Pakistan. He promised the full integration of Kashmir, a cause which
his party has championed for decades, and now he is delivering on that pledge.
Pakistan condemned India’s moves. Pakistan’s prime minister, Imran Khan, called on President
Trump to follow through on an offer he made two weeks ago to mediate the Kashmir dispute.
What are the roots of the conflict?

In 1947, the sudden separation of the area into Pakistan and India prompted millions of people
to migrate between the two countries and led to religious violence that killed hundreds of
thousands.
Left undecided was the status of Jammu and Kashmir, a Muslim-majority state in the Himalayas
that had been ruled by a local prince. Fighting quickly broke out, and both countries eventually
sent in troops, with Pakistan occupying about one-third of the state and India two-thirds.
The prince signed an agreement for the territory to become part of India. Regional autonomy,
which was formalized through Article 370, was a key inducement.
Despite efforts by the United Nations to mediate the Kashmir dispute, India and Pakistan
continue to administer their portions of the former princely territory while hoping to get full
control of it. Troops on both sides of the so-called “line of control” regularly fire volleys at each
other.
114
Muslim militants have frequently resorted to violence to expel the Indian troops from the
territory. Pakistan has backed many of those militants, as well as terrorists who have struck
deep inside India — most brutally in a four-day killing spree in Mumbai in 2008, which left more
than 160 people dead.
What is Article 370?
Article 370 was added to the Indian constitution shortly after the partition of British India to
give autonomy to the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir until a decision was made
about its rule. It limited the power of India's central government over the territory. A related
provision gave state lawmakers the power to decide who could buy land and be a permanent
resident -- a provision that irked many non-Kashmiris.
Although it was intended to be temporary, Article 370 says that it can only be abrogated with
the consent of the legislative body that drafted the state constitution. That body dissolved itself
in 1957, and India's Supreme Court ruled last year that Article 370 is therefore a permanent
part of the constitution.
The Modi government disagrees and says the president of India, who is beholden to the ruling
party, has the power to revoke the article.
Why did the conflict heat up this year?
The immediate cause was the Feb. 14 suicide bombing by a young Islamic militant, who blew up
a convoy of trucks carrying paramilitary forces in Pulwama in southern Kashmir.
Indian aircraft responded to that attack by flying into Pakistan and firing airstrikes near the
town of Balakot. The Indian government claimed it was attacking a training camp for Jaish-e-
Mohammed, the terrorist group that claimed responsibility for the bombing.
The next day, Pakistani and Indian fighter jets engaged in a skirmish over Indian-controlled
territory, and Pakistani forces downed an Indian aircraft — an aging Soviet-era MiG-21 — and
captured its pilot. It was the first aerial clash between the rivals in five decades.
Pakistan quickly returned the pilot, easing the diplomatic tensions. But Mr. Modi exploited a
wave of a nationalist fervor over the Pulwama attack as part of his re-election campaign that
helped his Bharatiya Janata Party win a sweeping victory.
Pakistan’s prime minister, Imran Khan, was elected last year with the backing of his country’s
powerful military, and he wants to show that he can stand up to India, even as his country’s
economy is so weak that he sought bailouts from Saudi Arabia and China.
Will the United States and other global powers get involved?
On July 22, Mr. Trump hosted Mr. Khan at the White House. Although the meeting was focused
on how to end the war in Afghanistan, Mr. Trump told reporters that Mr. Modi had asked him
to
115
help mediate the Kashmir dispute. Mr. Khan welcomed his involvement. The Indian government
denied making any mediation request and has long insisted on direct negotiations with Pakistan
to resolve the dispute.
Under Mr. Trump, American foreign policy has shifted away from Pakistan, a longtime recipient
of American aid, toward India, which the administration views as a bulwark against China’s
rising influence in Asia.
China, meanwhile, has become a close ally and financial patron of Pakistan. The Chinese
government recently urged India and Pakistan to settle their conflicts through bilateral
discussions. China shares a border with Jammu and Kashmir state, and India and China still do
not agree on the demarcation line.
What is likely to happen next?
The constitutional changes, issued through a presidential order, could face legal challenges. Last
year, India’s Supreme Court ruled that Article 370 could not be abrogated because the state-
level body that would have to approve the change went out of existence in 1957.
“My view is that this presidential notification is illegal,” said Shubhankar Dam, a law professor
at the University of Portsmouth in Britain and the author of a book on executive power in India.
“The question is one of jurisdiction: Does the government of India have the power to do this?”
Pakistan, for its part, said it will “exercise all possible options to counter the illegal steps” taken
by India.
Mr. Modi’s moves to integrate Kashmir into India are likely to be popular in much of the
country. But there is widespread panic in Kashmir, where there have been decades of protests
against Indian rule.
116
It Doesn’t Have to Be This Way: Stepping Away From a Disastrous War Over Kashmir
At a massive rally in Houston, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told a stadium packed with
supporters that India had bade “farewell” to a constitutional clause granting autonomy to the
Himalayan region of Kashmir. “Article 370 had deprived people of Jammu and Kashmir and
Ladakh of development,” Modi told the crowd. “Terror and separatist elements were misusing
the situation. Now, people there have got equal rights.” The crowd responded with roaring
applause.
Modi’s remark about “equal rights” was a jarring contrast to the news reports that have come
in from Kashmir describing thousands of detentions, cases of torture and death, and a
communications blackout that has severed Kashmir from the rest of the world. The de facto
annexation of the long-contested region has further strained relations between India and
Pakistan. It has also raised the specter of a full-blown insurgency pitting the Indian government
against disaffected Kashmiris.
For those to whom these ratcheted-up tensions look like another flare-up in a troubled area of
the world, the situation bears a caveat: This time is different.
If war over Kashmir does break out, it will be all the more tragic for having been avoidable.
Modi’s decision on Kashmir, so raucously cheered in Houston, would essentially close the door
on any optimistic vision of a peaceful resolution to this long-running conflict. Clashes have
already begun in the troubled territory, even under a heavy security lockdown. When the
current restrictions on movement and communication are eventually lifted, violence is almost
certain to increase.
Yet the escalation brought with it international scrutiny. In a press conference on Thursday at
the United Nations General Assembly, the State Department’s Acting Assistant Secretary for
South and Central Asian Affairs Alice Wells said that “the United States is concerned by
widespread detentions, including those of politicians and business leaders, and the restrictions
on the residents of Jammu and Kashmir.” Wells added that conditions should be created in the
region that lead to the “improvement of relations between the two nuclear powers,” referring
to India and Pakistan.
The two countries have fought several wars over Kashmir in the past. The recent tensions,
however, have reached a level not seen in years. Speaking at a session of the United Nations
Human Rights Council in Geneva, Pakistan’s foreign minister warned on September 10 that the
two countries were at risk of “an accidental war” over Kashmir.
If such a war does happen, it will be all the more tragic for having been avoidable.
THE CONFLICT IN Kashmir is, at its root, about a vote on local self-determination that never
took place. In 1948, shortly after the Partition of the Indian subcontinent into the nations of
India and Pakistan, the U.N. called for a plebiscite to be held in Kashmir that would let the local
117
people decide their political future: whether they wanted to remain with India, join Pakistan, or
become an independent nation.
The vote never happened, though many Kashmiris continue to demand it. Instead, following a
rigged state election in 1987, an armed movement aiming for self-determination broke out
against the Indian government. That movement was met with ferocious repression. Tens of
thousands have now been killed in Kashmir, with entire generations having grown up under
occupation.
Scenes from the Texas India Forum / Howdy Modi event between Indian Prime Minister,
Narendra Modi and US President, Donald Trump, Sunday, September 22nd. 2019 at NRG
Stadium in Houston, Texas.Todd Spoth for The Intercept.
Related
“The ideal thing is that a plebiscite vote should take place in Kashmir under U.N. auspices,” said
Altaf Wani, chair of the Kashmir Institute of International Relations, an activist group that
advocates for holding the referendum. “The people of Kashmir should be able to vote and
decide their fate, along with the possibility of regional votes that take the perspective of
minorities in Kashmir into consideration. But the failure to have a plebiscite at all is why we are
facing this crisis today.”
“And unfortunately,” Wani added, “a free vote has become a remote possibility in the present
circumstances, now that India has taken the extreme step of completely wiping out Kashmiri
autonomy.”
Modi’s recent speech in Houston and the uproarious reaction to annulling Kashmiri sovereignty
has made the prospect of violent confrontation with either Kashmiris themselves or their
Pakistani supporters more likely.
DESPITE THE HARDENING of Modi and India’s approach, there is still a way to step away from
the current precipice. A recent guidance document issued by a network of Kashmir-focused
academics laid out a number of steps for easing the conflict in both the short- and long-term.
Among these are releasing the thousands of political prisoners currently held in detention,
demilitarizing both the Pakistani- and Indian-held zones of Kashmir, allowing freedom of
movement across the border separating these two zones and creating a special rapporteur to
investigate human rights abuses.
The thrust of the paper calls for international mediation to ensure not just the end of human
rights abuses, but also a settlement that addresses the political causes of the ongoing conflict.
“This just settlement must be mediated within the framework of the rights of all Kashmiri
peoples to determine their own political future,” it states.
The conflict at its heart continues to revolve around the political future of Kashmiris
themselves: the issue of voting for their own self-determination. Various proposals have been
laid out in the past for how a vote could work. Kashmir is divided into several regions, including
the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley and Jammu, which today is majority Hindu. A plebiscite
vote that gave
118
local people the option to either seek independence or join one of the two neighboring
countries would prevent any majoritarian solution from being forced on minorities. It would
also give both India and Pakistan some stake in the final outcome and remove the main irritant
in their troubled seven-decade relationship.
A final settlement in which Kashmiris have the right to freedom of movement, self-governance,
and demilitarization of their region would likely be enough to stave off a conflict that otherwise
seems inevitable.
The desire for an independence vote has also been growing in Pakistani-held Kashmir, where
some locals blame the Pakistani government for “polluting” their national cause by connecting
it with Islamic extremist groups. “We were freedom fighters, made up from the Kashmiri
people. But then Pakistan pushed groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba on our movement. People began
to confuse our struggle for freedom with a desire for terrorism,” one former militant recently
said.
In addition to a vote on self-determination, over the years proposals have been raised for
defusing the conflict, including implementing soft borders and a free-trade regimen between
the Indian- and Pakistani-held sides of Kashmir.
A final settlement in which Kashmiris have the right to freedom of movement, self-governance,
and demilitarization of their region would likely be enough to stave off a conflict that otherwise
seems inevitable.
INDIA AND PAKISTAN have come close to negotiating a bilateral resolution to the Kashmir
conflict on their own. In the early 2000s, a summit was held in the Indian city of Agra between
Indian and Pakistani leaders. The aim of the two-day summit was to resolve the outstanding
territorial disputes between the two countries.
Four major steps for resolving the conflict were laid out, including demilitarization, freedom of
movement for Kashmiris across the Line of Control between India and Pakistan, and an end to
Pakistani support for armed militants. The agreement also included the right to self-governance
for Kashmiris. The talks ultimately collapsed as a result of internal divisions among Indian and
Kashmiri leaders — just as things were reportedly on the verge of going to a signing ceremony.
Until a few months ago, there were hints that India and Pakistan might again try and peacefully
resolve their differences over Kashmir on their own. With the current deterioration of relations,
however, that seems unlikely.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, who had previously suggested that Modi’s reelection
would make India a good peace partner, has found himself cornered by the Indian leader’s
sudden annexation declaration. Khan, in response, has radically changed his message. He now
says that Pakistan is ready to “fight to the end” over the disputed territory. In a New York Times
op-ed, he characterized Modi as ideologically inspired by German Nazism. The Pakistani public
is also being primed for potential conflict. On the last Friday of August, major Pakistani cities
came to a halt for half an hour in solidarity with Kashmiris living under a security and
communications lockdown.
119
IBIBZAI2
All indications suggest that the stage is being set for something terrible in Kashmir.
The signs from India have been even more concerning. Indian officials have publicly indicated
that they no longer intend to abide by a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy in any future
conflict. They also seem ready to go to war with Kashmiris themselves. A rolling government
crackdown has effectively decapitated Kashmiri civil society, thrusting thousands of
intellectuals, civil rights activists, and local politicians into detention centers. Millions of
ordinary people are living under a state of siege. For the outside world, communicating with
those inside Kashmir has become nearly impossible. Life there has been effectively paralyzed,
with allegations of torture and other abuses taking place in the shadows.
Once the restrictions are lifted, large protests are likely. During past demonstrations, Indian
military forces have shown little hesitation to fire into crowds of protesters. The U.N. High
Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet recently issued a statement expressing
concern over the rapidly deteriorating human rights situation in the region. All indications
suggest that the stage is being set for something terrible in Kashmir.
FOR KASHMIRIS, THE one silver lining in Modi’s actions has been the unintentional
internationalization of the conflict. After years of being relatively ignored, Kashmir is on the
front pages of newspapers around the world. There has also been a growing response from U.S.
politicians. Last week, four senators issued a letter expressing grave concerns over the
“humanitarian crisis” in Kashmir. Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.,
recently called the situation “unacceptable” and expressed support for “a U.N.-backed peaceful
resolution that respects the will of the Kashmiri people.”
If the situation in Kashmir has taken a dire turn following drastic decisions made by the Modi
government, it has also brought back to global attention the urgency of resolving this long-
running conflict that involves two nuclear powers. Modi’s speech in Houston proudly
trumpeting the annulment of Kashmiri autonomy as a major accomplishment of his rule
demonstrates that, absent international pressure, the situation is likely to deteriorate into an
even more dangerous conflict. Khan, the Pakistani prime minister, warned at the U.N. of a
“massacre” in Indian-held Kashmir if, as likely, protests begin after the current restrictions are
lifted.
“India is currently in the most draconian form it has ever been, but it is now also taking these
steps against Kashmiris in full view of the international community,” said Mona Bhan, an
associate professor of anthropology at DePauw University. “We need to focus on stopping the
human rights violations occurring at present, but also must see the larger issue at hand:
restoring political rights, including the right to self-determination for Kashmiris, which have
been denied for several decades.”
NEW MAP
• PM hails map as first step towards resolution of Kashmir dispute

• Region’s description changed to Indian Illegally Occupied J&K
ISLAMABAD: The government on Tuesday unveiled a new political map of the
country essentially asserting its longstanding position on Kashmir and Sir
Creek disputes.
“It is a historic occasion. The political map reflects our national aspiration and
supports our principled stance on Kashmir dispute,” Prime Minister Imran
Khan said while introducing the map. He was on the occasion accompanied by
his foreign policy, national security and information ministry aides.
The map was launched after the approval by the federal cabinet. Foreign
Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi had earlier in the day briefed the legislators
from opposition parties on the map during a meeting at the Foreign Office.
The new map was made public a day before Pakistan observes the first
anniversary of annexation of occupied Kashmir.
India had annexed the held territory on Aug 5 last year by revoking articles
370 and 35A of its constitution, which had provided special status to occupied
Kashmir and rights and privileges to Kashmiris.
The inauguration of the new map is, moreover, believed to be a response to

India, which launched its own political map on Oct 31 last year after
bifurcation of the disputed territory into so-called Union Territories of Jammu
and Kashmir and that of Ladakh. India had through its map claimed the entire
disputed area, including Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, as part of its
territory.
The Indian map was on that occasion rejected by China, Pakistan and Nepal.
PM Khan hailed the new map as the “first step” towards resolution of the
nearly 73-year-old dispute. He, however, emphasised that Pakistan believed in
a political solution to the dispute. He said the map rejected India’s illegal
action of annexing held Kashmir.
Foreign Minister Qureshi, on this occasion, gave a presentation on the

features of the new political map. He said the map clearly showed the disputed
area, whose status Pakistan wanted to be decided in accordance with the UN
resolutions and aspirations of the people of held Kashmir.
“It is first time that the aspirations of Pakistani nation and our stated position
on the dispute are being given with such clarity,” he maintained.
Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on National Security Moeed Yusuf,

while talking to Dawn later, said the map asserted Pakistan’s claim on the
territory, but had in no way suggested that the region was part of Pakistan.
“We have just said that the dispute has to be resolved in accordance with UN
resolutions,” he added.
Entire Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir had been given in the same green colour
to show that it’s one territory, Mr Yusuf said, adding that the map also showed
the changed nomenclature.
The government has changed the description of occupied region from Indian
Occupied Jammu and Kashmir to Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and
Kashmir. It has been further clearly stated on the map that the region is
disputed territory, whose “final status is to be decided in line with relevant
UNSC resolutions”.
Mr Yusuf said the international boundary on the eastern side had been
extended up to the undefined frontier to demarcate Indian territory of
Himchal Pardesh from the disputed part of Jammu and Kashmir.
‘Frontier Undefined’ is another description that has been added to the map.
Mr Yusuf said it annotated that it would be defined after the Kashmir dispute
was settled.
The claim on Junagadh and Manavadar too has been underscored. Moreover,
an administrative boundary separating AJK and GB has also been inserted in
the map.
Foreign Minister Qureshi at the ceremony held to inaugurate the map said the
Line of Control had been extended and connected with the Chinese border.
“This makes it clear that Siachen is ours,” he maintained.
An official, meanwhile, explained that the new map represented the position
on Sir Creek, according to Sindh government’s agreement with the State of
Kutch in 1914, demarcating the boundary on the Eastern Bank of Sir Creek.
Mr Qureshi said it negated Indian position with regards to Sir Creek. “India
was cleverly trying to occupy hundreds of kilometers of our Exclusive
Economic Zone,” he added.
The new map furthermore shows erstwhile Fata as part of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa province. Fata was merged with KP in May 2018 after 25th
Amendment to the Constitution.
Indian reaction
Indian Ministry of External Affairs rejected the map as an “exercise in political

absurdity, laying untenable claims to territories in the Indian State of Gujarat
and our Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and of Ladakh”.
A statement issued from New Delhi said: “These ridiculous assertions have
neither legal validity nor international credibility.”
FO response
The Foreign Office categorically rejected the statement made by the Indian
external affairs ministry on Pakistan’s political map. “Through sophistry and
obfuscation, India cannot create a smokescreen for its illegal and unacceptable
actions in Indian occupied Jammu & Kashmir, including those taken since
Aug 5, 2019. It is preposterous for a country that is compulsively expansionist,
and a brazen practitioner of state-terrorism, to level charges against others,”
the FO spokesperson said in a statement.
It said India had been in illegal occupation of parts of Jammu & Kashmir since
1947 and had continuously violated UN Security Council resolutions for
decades. Despite its brutal suppression of Kashmiris for over 72 years, India
had been unable to force them into submission, it added.
“Pakistan’s position remains clear and unambiguous. The solution of the

Jammu and Kashmir dispute lies in the realisation of the Kashmiris’
inalienable right to self-determination through a free and impartial plebiscite
under the auspices of the United Nations. The government, leadership and
people of Pakistan remain firmly committed to the solution of the Jammu &
Kashmir dispute in accordance with the relevant UN Security Council
resolutions and the wishes of the Kashmiri people. The political map issued by
Pakistan emphatically reaffirms this abiding commitment,” the FO said.

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What is Article 370?

Why did the conflict heat up this year?

What is likely to happen next?

• PM hails map as first step towards resolution of Kashmir dispute

The inauguration of the new map is, moreover, believed to be a response to

Foreign Minister Qureshi, on this occasion, gave a presentation on the

Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on National Security Moeed Yusuf,

The new map furthermore shows erstwhile Fata as part of Khyber

Indian Ministry of External Affairs rejected the map as an “exercise in political

“Pakistan’s position remains clear and unambiguous. The solution of the

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