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ETFs are
no longer considered a niche product and a growing number of organisations
are likely to enter this market in the future. To help asset managers prepare to
compete in this fast changing environment, we have considered the ongoing
evolution, barriers to growth and the opportunities that lie ahead, and how
they can plan for 2020.
ETF 2020
Preparing for a new horizon
www.pwc.com/ETF2020
2 PwC ETF 2020
3 PwC ETF 2020
Contents
Executive Summary 4
Ongoing evolution 5
Impediments to growth 5
Opportunities ahead 6
ETFs in 2020 8
Growing global footprint 8
More segments adopt 9
Products proliferate 11
Service providers evolve 12
Optimistic economic outlook 13
The power of policy 14
Regional Summaries
Europe 16
Asia 18
United States 19
Contacts 28
4 PwC ETF 2020
Executive
summary
In 2013, PwC explored the rise of ETFs in depth in ‘The next generation
of ETFs’. Based on the history of ETFs and a close examination of recent
developments, this paper identified key trends, highlighted potential
obstacles to growth and articulated how industry players might formulate
coherent strategies to deal with ETFs. Since then, we have gone on to survey
asset managers, service providers and other industry participants around
the world in an effort to better understand regional developments in ETFs
and use their expertise as a sounding board for our own perspectives.
This report leverages the results of our global survey and our insights to
paint a picture of how the ETF business is likely to evolve globally over the
next six years.
ETFs in 2020
In absolute terms, asset flows in the developed markets of the U.S. and
Europe will dominate the global ETF landscape, but the highest rates of
growth are likely to be found in less mature markets. Asian investors have
had access to ETFs for some time, but are only now adopting them in
greater numbers. Currently accounting for 7% of global ETF assets,5 the
sheer number of investors in the region combined with economic growth,
rapid wealth creation and a quickly evolving financial services landscape
mean that Asia is likely to contribute significantly to the growth of ETFs
in the coming years.6 Capital flows will accelerate further with the likely
internationalisation of the Chinese renminbi, which will open up what will
become one of the world’s most important AM markets.
9 PwC ETF 2020
As ETFs become more global, they Segment and channel dynamics can
will find their way into the portfolios vary from one region to another,
of a wider array of investors. Having and differences can sometimes be
led the way in most markets, striking. The benefits inherent in
2 PwC, ‘Asset Management 2020: A Brave advisors to individual investors the ETF as an investment vehicle are
New World’, 2013 will continue to drive demand for almost universally seen as the key
3 BlackRock, ‘ETP Landscape: Industry ETFs. The ease of use, low cost and drivers of their growth to date. But
Highlights’, 30 June 2014
4 ETFGI, ‘ETFGI Monthly Newsletter,
liquidity of ETFs has made them demand has come from different
July 2014’, 7 August 2014 a favourite among advisors, who types of investors, depending on the
5 BlackRock, ‘ETP Landscape: Industry in many cases are taking on more market. In the U.S., retail demand
Highlights’, 30 June 2014
of a portfolio management role as is more likely to have been seen as
6 BlackRock, ‘ETP Landscape: Industry
Highlights’, 30 June 2014 the emphasis shifts from security a significant growth driver to date.
7 See footnote 6 above selection to asset allocation. The Outside of the U.S., institutional
8 PwC, ‘The Next Generation of ETFs’, 2013
10 PwC ETF 2020
Figure 2: Investor segments projected to generate significant demand (more than one response provided)
% of firms
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Products proliferate Figure 3: Most important area of innovation (more than one response
provided)
Demand for ETFs is growing as
more investors become familiar with
them. Although new ETFs are not
being launched at the same pace of
a few years ago, fund managers and
sponsors continue to do everything
they can to meet the needs of
key investor groups. Rather than 29%
designing products and hoping they
attract interest, they are meeting
with ETF strategists, investment 34%
14% Alternatives
advisors and others to ensure they 46%
understand the needs of their core
users. Self-indexing
Active ETFs
New types of indexing (also referred New types of indexing
to as ‘smart beta’) represent one
hotbed of product development Source: PwC Global ETF Survey, September 2014
activity, with 46% of all survey
participants identifying this as the
most important area of innovation
than market capitalisation, which
(Figure 3). Among non-U.S. firms,
can lead to overly concentrated
it ranks first. As they evolve beyond
exposure to certain markets, sectors,
their roots, non-traditionally
or securities. Their vehicle of choice
indexed ETFs are attracting
is an ETF with holdings weighted by
significant attention, with a growing
corporate fundamentals (e.g. profits
number of investors opting for index
or dividends), momentum, or some
weightings, based on factors other
other factor.
12 PwC ETF 2020
n U.S. n Non-U.S.
• 90% of the service providers say Figure 5: Level of satisfaction with outsourced operational
their firms have changed their services for ETFs
business model by changing
terms or adding resources,
streamlining processes,
introducing more automation,
globalising operations and 9%
12%
upgrading technology.
35%
• Competition is also putting
pressure on fees. Almost two
out of three service providers in
the survey stated that fees are
41% 3%
an issue with which they are
grappling.
Very satisfied Satisfied Neutral Unsatisfied Very unsatisfied
• In many cases, their service
offerings are integrated and Source: PwC Global ETF Survey, September 2014
offered in the form of ‘platforms’. Note: ETF managers and sponsors only
outlook
ETF sponsors are rather more
bullish on their financial prospects,
26%
with 59% saying they expect their
ETF businesses to become more 12% 2%
profitable this year (Figure 6). 9%
Meanwhile, only 14% say profits Much Somewhat About Somewhat Much
more more the same less less
are likely to fall in that time. Much
of this optimism has its roots in
Source: PwC Global ETF Survey, September 2014
the nearly universal belief that
the market will grow organically,
generating additional income. Asset Improved distribution dynamics are
growth is likely to be propelled by also seen as a potential source of
growing demand as well as market stimulus for sponsor revenues. This
appreciation. Some fee pressure is is particularly true in Asian markets,
anticipated, but it is not expected to where deregulation and lower cross-
overwhelm revenue growth from a border barriers could spur activity
rapidly growing asset base. and growth.
Non-traditional index ETFs (so- The rise of ETF strategists will
called smart beta funds) are already continue to benefit fund sponsors in
generating significant interest and the U.S. market. Already accounting
asset flows, and boosting revenues for more than $100 billion of assets,
for a growing number of firms. the 145 strategist firms in the
Non-transparent (also known as U.S. market continue to introduce
periodically disclosed) active ETFs complementary offerings in order
are another example of innovation to leverage their distribution
expected to directly benefit the top networks and infrastructure.10 How
line growth of many asset managers. quickly the model is applied to
other markets remains to be seen,
but rapid adoption would benefit
managers and ETF sponsors. 10 Morningstar, ‘ETF Managed Portfolio Landscape’, Q2 2014
14 PwC ETF 2020
Kong and mainland China offers an Figure 8: Effect of the approval of non-transparent active ETFs on
appealing prospect to fund sponsors your firm
eager to penetrate the rapidly
growing market on the mainland,
should ETFs be included within its
scope in the future. The success
of the Undertakings for Collective
Investment in Transferable
Securities (UCITS) framework in
18% 23% 59%
Europe illustrates the importance of
this phenomenon.
Europe:
of the biggest drivers of change There are only a handful of
in the European ETF business, European managers that now offer
affecting distribution dynamics and active ETFs. That is set to change as
Regulatory the product landscape in particular. large U.S. houses look set to bring
active ETFs to Europe.
MiFID II could be
a game changer in
Europe, where the
adoption of ETFs
by retail investors
significantly lags
their use by U.S.
retail investors.
MiFID II will
become effective by
2017, but a number
of countries
(Germany,
Switzerland, the
Netherlands,
the UK and
Sweden) have
already enacted
legislation to ban
commissions for
fund sales.
Asia:
differ markedly from one country to limited number of Asian ETFs cross-
another in Asia. Due to the difficulty listed in other markets in Asia. Fund
of effectively penetrating these passports could have a profound
Fragmented markets, ETF providers in China,
Japan and Korea are dominated by
impact on the success of ETFs in
Asia. The three Asian fund passports
A fast-moving
to experience significant growth The vast majority (approximately
and innovation. ETF assets in the 99%) of U.S. ETF assets are
U.S. market grew to approximately currently in passively managed
U.S. market $1.9 trillion across 1,600 funds
by the end of June 2014.15 The
index products. Active ETFs
accumulated approximately $16
market continues to be dominated billion assets under management
by the top three ETF sponsors (AUM) between 2008 and mid-2014.
with a combined market share of Currently, the SEC requires active
approximately 81%, as of 31 July ETF sponsors to publish the full
2014.16 investment holdings for any active
ETF, prior to the opening of the
Institutional investors drive market on a daily basis.
growth
Recent growth of the U.S. market The daily portfolio disclosure
has been driven by registered requirement is often cited as one of
investment advisors (RIAs), wealth the primary reasons why active ETFs
management platforms, other have not seen greater growth and
asset managers, endowments and innovation to date, as investment
foundations. Each of these groups managers are hesitant to provide
will continue to expand their use of full transparency of their trading
ETFs over the next few years, but strategies on a daily basis. This
new opportunities will also emerge contrasts with passive ETFs and
including insurance companies and mutual funds, which disclose their
retirement plans. investment portfolios on a quarterly
basis up to 60 days in arrears.
Insurance companies are a prospect
Recent growth of because they offer two distinct In late October 2014, the SEC denied
opportunities. ETFs are already requests for two firms seeking
the U.S. market
starting to penetrate the annuity approval to launch non-transparent
has been driven market, in part because their active ETFs and these firms
by RIAs, wealth suitability for use in increasingly subsequently withdrew their filings
management sophisticated tactical strategies in mid-November 2014. In early
platforms, other and allocation models makes November 2014, the SEC approved
asset managers, them particularly appealing as another version of non-transparent
endowments, and sub-account options for variable active investment product called
annuity providers. In addition, exchange-traded managed funds
foundations.
ETFs are potentially well-suited as (ETMFs). The SEC approval of
balance-sheet assets for insurance ETMFs and potentially other
companies, a potentially huge requests for non-transparent active
market opportunity for fund ETFs could lead to another phase of
sponsors. growth and innovation for ETFs in
the U.S.
Structural barriers make penetration
of the retirement market elusive.
Low-cost mutual fund share classes
are designed for retirement plans,
record-keeping systems are geared
towards mutual funds and the
tax efficiency of ETFs is not an
advantage. Still, actively managed
target date and target risk ETFs
are being rolled out to defined
contribution plans and the selective
use of ETFs by defined benefit plans
15 Strategic Insight, SimfundMF database, 30 June 2014
point to growing penetration of
16 BlackRock, ‘ETP Landscape: Industry Highlights’, this market.
30 June 2014
20 PwC ETF 2020
Challenges on the
horizon
14% 14%
19%
21%
Extreme Other
market event
Regulations
The strategic
imperative
ETFs are being used in a growing number of ways by a wider Figure 11: Do asset managers without
ETFs need an ETF strategy?
variety of investors in more markets around the world.
They comprise a disruptive presence and an increasingly
prominent feature in the competitive landscape facing all
asset managers. As a result, all firms need to carefully
consider the impact of ETFs on their corporate strategies,
whether they currently offer ETFs or not.
There is no question that ETF sponsors need to think strategically over the
67%
next several years as their competitive environment changes rapidly. Other
asset managers will also need to plan their next moves carefully. Two out of
three survey participants said firms without ETFs nevertheless need to have
an ETF strategy (Figure 11).
33%
This is changing. Existing ETF firms will need to calculate the impact of new
entrants on their business as they defend their positions and look for growth
opportunities. New entrants will need to realistically assess their prospects
in light of tightening economics and the potential for ETFs to undermine
their existing businesses.
Product differentiation
“ETFs continue to take market Largely limited in the past
share away from other to tracking ever narrower or
products, and firms will either more exotic indices, product
differentiation is likely to take on
have to launch ETFs or create a completely different character
other investment vehicles as ETFs embrace non-traditional
which are competitive…” indices, active strategies and
alternative investments. It is worth
Some barriers to entry are more noting that product differentiation
significant than others. Operational may have a shelf life. The ability to
requirements are met more easily rapidly develop products can reap
than ever before, given widely significant rewards for pioneering
available solutions from global firms. Launching new strategies
services firms. Effective distribution, alongside similar offerings from
on the other hand, is likely to prove multiple competitors is not likely to
a bigger hurdle and may ultimately prove as successful.
form a high enough barrier that
Monetizing expertise
regional markets for ETFs take on
Still, as more types of strategies
oligopolistic characteristics.
are permitted by regulators and
Existing firms are widely seen as operational barriers to entry are
having the upper hand. Three out minimised, the doors will be opened
of four survey participants say that to firms of all stripes interested
current market participants are in monetising their expertise by
likely to expand. The fact that only offering ETFs. It is almost a given
one in three expect there to be any that traditional active money
consolidation underscores the fact managers will enter the ETF market,
that, despite signs of maturation, but we would not be surprised to
this is still a growth business. see the competitive landscape also
populated by technology companies,
Successfully consumer product firms, or affinity
organisations by 2020.
planning for 2020
In ‘The next generation of ETFs’, Content marketing
we offered six suggestions for firms Effectively building a brand is
formulating ETF strategies that bear challenging at the best of times,
repeating: but many firms in less developed
markets see this as the perfect time
1. Differentiate your offering. to establish awareness with investors
by introducing them to ETFs and
2. Monetise expertise.
educating them on their uses
3. Use content marketing. and benefits. Content marketing
becomes critical. Advertising may
4. Capitalise on regulatory ultimately prove important, but
developments. gaining the trust and respect of
novice ETF investors by educating
5. Solutions, not products.
them on the features and benefits of
6. Cultivate pockets of demand. the product is priceless.
Relevance may vary from one One Asian survey participant stated
market to another, but responses to that: “Creating more awareness
this most recent survey confirm all among retail investors is our first
of these as important considerations priority, as it will ultimately lead to
in shaping ETF strategies. wider adoption.” Existing brands
in the U.S. and Europe don’t
necessarily carry equal weight in
26 PwC ETF 2020
Contacts
If you would like further information on the issues raised in this report, please
contact us:
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advisory services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com.
This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not
constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication
without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is
given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the
extent permitted by law, PwC do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any
consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in
this publication or for any decision based on it.
For more information on the Global Asset Management 2020 Marketing programme, contact Maya Bhatti
on +44 (0) 20 7213 2302 or at maya.bhatti@uk.pwc.com.
31 PwC ETF 2020
www.pwc.com/ETF2020
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