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Probability in everyday life, we come across statements such as:

1. Most probably it will rain today.


2. Chances are high that the prices of petrol will go up.
3. I doubt that he will win the race.

The words ‘most probably’, ‘chances’, ‘doubt’ etc., show the probability of
occurrence of an event.

Some Terms Related to Probability


Experiment:

An operation which can produce some well-defined outcomes is called an


experiment. Each outcome is called an event. 

Random Experiment:

In an experiment where all possible outcomes are known and in advance


if the exact outcome cannot be predicted, is called a random experiment. 

Thus, when we throw a coin we know that all possible outcomes are Head
and Tail. 
But, if we throw a coin at random, we cannot predict in advance whether
its upper face will show a head or a tail. 

So, tossing a coin is a random experiment. 


Similarly, throwing a dice is a random experiment.

For example: tossing a fair coin, casting an unbiased die and drawing a


card from a pack of 52 cards.

Let us take the experiment of tossing a coin. If we toss a coin then we


get two possible outcomes either a ‘head’ (H) or a ‘tail’ (T), and it is
impossible to predict whether the result of a toss will be a ‘head’ or ‘tail’.

Trial:

By a trial, we mean performing a random experiment.

For example; throwing a die or tossing a coin etc.

Sample space:

A sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible results of that


random experiment.

For example; in throwing a die possible results are {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.


Event:

Out of the total results obtained from a certain experiment, the set of
those results which are in favor of a definite result is called the event and
it is denoted as E.

Equally Likely Events:

When there is no reason to expect the happening of one event in


preference to the other, then the events are known equally likely events.

For example; when an unbiased coin is tossed the chances of getting a


head or a tail are the same.

Exhaustive Events:

All the possible outcomes of the experiments are known as exhaustive


events.

For example; in throwing a die there are 6 exhaustive events in a trial.

Favorable Events:

The outcomes which make necessary the happening of an event in a trial


are called favorable events.

For example; if two dice are thrown, the number of favorable events of
getting a sum 5 is four,

i.e., (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2) and (4, 1).

Additive Law of Probability:

If E1 and E2 be any two events (not necessarily mutually exclusive


events), then P(E1 ∪ E2) = P(E1) + P(E2) - P(E1 ∩ E2)

Probability of Occurrence of an Event:


The probability of occurrence of an event is defined as: 

P(occurrence of an event)

                    Number of trials in which event occurred


                    =                           Total number of trials              

Solved examples on Probability:


1. A dice is thrown 65 times and 4 appeared 2 1 times. Now, in a random
throw of a dice, what is the probability of getting 

Solution: 

Total number of tria1s = 65. 

Number of times 4 appeared = 21.

Probability of getting a 4 = Number of times 4 appeared/Total number of trials 

                                  = 21/65

2. A survey of 200families shows the results given below:

    No. of girls in the family        2       1     0  


No. of Families 32 154 14

Out of these families, one is chosen at random. What is the probability


that the chosen family has 1 girl? 

Solution: 

Total number of families = 200. 

Number of families having 1 girl = 154.

Probability of getting a family having 1 girl

                               = Number of families having 1 girl/Total number of families

                               = 154/200 

                               = 77/100

Events in Probability
The outcomes of a random experiment are called events connected with
the experiment.

For example; ‘head’ and ‘tail’ are the outcomes of the random


experiment of throwing a coin and hence are events connected with it.

Now we can distinguish between two types of events.

(i) simple event

(ii) compound event


Simple or Elementary Event: If there be only one element of the
sample space in the set representing an event, then this event is called a
simple or elementary event.

For example; if we throw a die, then the sample space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4,


5, 6}. Now the event of 2 appearing on the die is simple and is given by E
= {2}.

Compound Event: If there are more than one element of the sample
space in the set representing an event, then this event is called a
compound event.

For example; if we throw a die, having S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, the event


of a odd number being shown is given by E = {1, 3, 5}.

Odd in favor of an event A is defined as; number of favorable


events/number of unfavorable events.

Similarly, odds against an event A = number of unfavorable


events/number of favorable events.

Certain Events: An event which is sure to occur at every performance of


an experiment is called a certain event connected with the experiment.

For example, “Head or Tail’ is a certain event connected with tossing a


coin.

Face-1 or face-2, face-3, ……, face-6is a certain event connected with


throwing a die.

Impossible Even: An event which cannot occur at any performance of


the experiment is called an possible event.

Following are such examples ----

(i) ‘Seven’ in case of throwing a die.

(ii) ‘Sum-13’ in case of throwing a pair of dice.

Equivalent Events / Identical Events: Two events are said to be


equivalent or identical if one of them implies and implied by other. That is,
the occurrence of one event implies the occurrence of the other and vice
versa.

For example, “even face” and “face-2” or “face-4” or “face-6” are two


identical events.
Equally Likely Events: When there is no reason to expect the happening
of one event in preference to the other, then the events are known
equally likely events.

For example; when an unbiased coin is tossed the chances of getting a


head or a tail are the same.

Exhaustive Events: All the possible outcomes of the experiments are


known as exhaustive events.

For example; in throwing a die there are 6 exhaustive events in a trial.

Favorable Events: The outcomes which make necessary the happening


of an event in a trial are called favorable events.

For example; if two dice are thrown, the number of favorable events of
getting a sum 5 is four, i.e., (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2) and (4, 1).

Mutually Exclusive Events: If there be no element common between


two or more events, i.e., between two or more subsets of the sample
space, then these events are called mutually exclusive events.

If E1 and E2 are two mutually exclusive events, then E1 ∩ E2 = ∅

For example, in connection with throw a die “even face” and “odd face”
are mutually exclusive.

But” odd-face” and “multiple of 3” are not mutually exclusive, because


when “face-3” occurs both the events “odd face” and “multiply of 3” are
said to be occurred simultaneously.

We see that two simple-events are always mutually exclusive while two
compound events may or may not mutually exclusive.

Complementary Event: An event which consists in the negation of


another event is called complementary event of the er event. In case of
throwing a die, ‘even face’ and ‘odd face’ are complementary to each
other. “Multiple of 3” ant “Not multiple of 3” are complementary events of
each other.

Not happening of the event E is called the complementary event of the


event E. It is denoted by E’ or E or Ec.

Note that complementary event of certain event is an impossible event


and vice versa.
Event points, Even Space: Let an experiment be donated by E. The
simple events connected with E will be called even points: and the set S of
all possible even points is called event space of E.

Any subset A of S is obviously an event. If A contains single point then it


is a simple event, if A contains more than one point of S then A is
compound event.

Then entire space S is certain event and empty set ∅ is impossible event.

Definition of Mutually Exclusive Events:


If two events are such that they cannot occur simultaneously for any
random experiment are said to be mutually exclusive events.

If X and Y are two mutually exclusive events, then X ∩ Y = ∅

For example, events in rolling of a die are “even face” and “odd face”
which are known as mutually exclusive events.

But” odd-face” and “multiple of 3” are not mutually exclusive, because


when “face-3” occurs both the events “odd face” and “multiply of 3” are
said to be occurred simultaneously.

We see that two simple-events are always mutually exclusive while two
compound events may or may not mutually exclusive.

Addition Theorem Based on Mutually Exclusive Events:


If X and Y are two mutually exclusive events, then the probability of ‘X
union Y’ is the sum of the probability of X and the probability of Y and
represented as,

P(X U Y) = P(X) + P(Y)

Proof: Let E be a random experiment and N(X) be the number of


frequency of the event X in E. Since X and Y are two mutually exclusive events
then;

N(X U Y) = N(X) + N(Y)

or, N(X U Y)/N = N(X)/N + N(Y)/N; Dividing both the sides by N.

Now taking limit N g ∞, we get probability of

P(X U Y) = P(X) + P(Y)

Worked-out problems on probability of Mutually Exclusive Events:

1. One card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. What is the


probability of getting a king or an ace?
Solution:

Let X be the event of ‘getting a king’ and,

Y be the event of ‘getting an ace’

We know that, in a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards there are 4 kings


and 4 aces.

Therefore, probability of getting a king from well-shuffled deck of 52


cards = P(X) = 4/52 = 1/13

Similarly, probability of getting an ace from well-shuffled deck of 52


cards = P(Y) = 4/52 = 1/13

According to the definition of mutually exclusive we know that, drawing of


a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards ‘getting a king’ and ‘getting an ace’
are known as mutually exclusive events.

We have to find out P(King or ace).

So according to the addition theorem for mutually exclusive events, we


get;

P(X U Y) = P(X) + P(Y)

Therefore, P(X U Y)  = 1/13 + 1/13

= (1 + 1)/13

= 2/13

Hence, probability of getting a king or an ace from a well-shuffled


deck of 52 cards = 2/13

2. A bag contains 8 black pens and 2 red pens and if a pen is drawn at
random. What is the probability that it is black pen or red pen?

Solution:

Let X be the event of ‘getting a black pen’ and,

Y be the event of ‘getting a red pen’.

We know that, there are 8 black pens and 2 red pens.

Therefore, probability of getting a black pen = P(X) = 8/10 = 4/5

Similarly, probability of getting a red pen = P(Y) = 2/10 = 1/5


According to the definition of mutually exclusive we know that, the event
of ‘getting a black pen’ and ‘getting a red pen’ from a bag are known as
mutually exclusive event.

We have to find out P(getting a black pen or getting a red pen).

So according to the addition theorem for mutually exclusive events, we


get;

P(X U Y) = P(X) + P(Y)

Therefore, P(X U Y)  = 4/5 + 1/5

= 5/5

=1

Hence, probability of getting ‘a black pen’ or ‘a red pen’ = 1

Definition of Conditional Probability: 


The probability of an event X is given then another event Y occurred is
called conditional probability of X given Y. 

It is denoted by P(X/Y).

P(X/Y) = P(X ∩ Y)/P(y)

Similarly, when the probability of Y given X is

P(Y/X) = P(X ∩ Y)/P(X)

Proof: Let an experiment E be repeated N times under identical


conditions and X, Y be two events connected with E. Suppose, X occurs
N(X) times and among these N(X) repetitions the event Y also occurs
(along with X) N(XY) times.

Then N(XY)/N(X) is called conditional frequency ratio of Y on the


hypothesis that X has occurred and denoted by f(Y/X). That is f(Y/X) =
N(XY)/N(X). Let, limit n g ∞ f(Y/X) exists then this limit is P(Y/X). That is
conditional probability of Y on the hypothesis that X has occurred. 

ow, f(Y/X) = N(XY)/N(X)

= N(XY)/N/N(X)/N

= f(XY)/f(X)

Therefore, P(Y/X) = limit n ∞ f(Y/X) = P(XY)/P(X) ------------ (i)

Provided P(X) ≠ 0
Similarly if P(Y) ≠ P(X/Y) = P(XY)/P(Y) ------------ (ii)

Provided P(Y) ≠ 0

From (i) and (ii) we get the following multiplication rule;

P(XY) = P(X/Y) ∙ P(Y) = P(Y/X) ∙ P(X)

Provided P(X) ≠ 0 and P(Y) ≠ 0

Multiplication Theorem of Probability:


In an experiment suppose, X and Y are any two events then probabilities
of both X and Y is given by

P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) ∙ P(Y/X) ------------ (i)

OR

P(X ∩ Y) = P(Y) ∙ P(X/Y) ------------ (ii)

If X and Y are independent, then 

P (X/Y) = P(X) and P(Y/X) = P(Y)

Now substituting P(Y/X) = P(Y) in “equation (i)” , we get

P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) ∙ P(Y)

Similarly, substituting P(X/Y) = P(X) in “equation (ii)”, we get

P(X ∩ Y) = P(Y) ∙ P(X) = P(X) ∙ P(Y)

If X and Y are independent, then probabilities of both X and Y is given by

P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) ∙ P(Y).

Worked-out problems on Conditional probability:


1. Give the frequency interpretation of conditional probability.

Solution:

For a long sequence of repetitions of the random experiment under the


uniform conditions, the conditional frequency ratio, f(Y/X) taken to be an
approximate value of the conditional probability P(Y/X).

2. A mobile manufactured by a company consists of two types of mobile,


red color mobile phone and black color mobile phone. In the process of
manufacturing of red color mobile phone, 91 out of 100 are non defective.
And in the manufacturing process of black color mobile phone, 95 out of
100 are non defective. Calculate the probability that the assembled type is
non defective.
Solution:

Let X denote the event that red color mobile phone is non defective and 
Y denotes the event that black color mobile phone is non defective.

Probability of non defective red color mobile phone P(X) = 91/100

Probability of non defective red color mobile phone P(Y) = 95/100

Here X and Y are independent

P(assembled type is non defective) = P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) ∙ P(Y)

= 91/100 ∙ 95/100

= 8645/10000

= 0.8645

Therefore, P(assembled type is non defective) = 0.8645

3. In class X, 20% of the students are boys and 80% of them are girls.
The probability that boys passed in mathematics is 0.5 and the probability
that girls passed in mathematics is 0.10. One student is selected at
random. What is the probability that the selected student is passed in
mathematics?

Solution:

Let X denote the event that boy is selected,

Y denote the event that girl is selected and

Z denotes the event that the selected student is passed in mathematics.

P(X) = P(boy is selected) = 20/100 = 1/5

P(Y) = P(girl is selected) = 80/100 = 4/5

P(Z/X) = P(selected boy passed in mathematics) = 0.5

P(Z/Y) = P(selected girl passed in mathematics) = 0.10

P(selected student is passed in mathematics) = P(boy is selected and he


is passed in mathematics or girl is selected and she is passed in
mathematics)

So, required probability is

P(X ∩ Z) + P(Y ∩ Z) = P(X) ∙ P(Z/X) + P(Y) ∙ P(Z/Y)


= (1/5) × 0.5 + (4/5) × 0.1
= 0.10 + 0.08
= 0.18
Therefore, P(selected student is passed in mathematics) = 0.18

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