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Executive Summary……………….….….….3
Advantage India…………………..….… 4
Opportunities ..….……….........………….…23
Government of India’s Housing for All initiative is expected to bring US$ 600 525.45
460.24 470.72
1.3 trillion investment in the housing sector by 2025. 400
4 4
India's Global Real Estate Transparency Index ranking improved by a 2 6
200 9 1
notch to 34 in 2019 on the back of regulatory reforms, better market
data and green initiatives according to property consultant JLL. 0 2015 2018 2019 2020F 2025F
Cumulative FDI inflow1 between April 2000-March 2020(US$
billion)
30.00
20.00 25.66
10.00 16.85
0.00
Construction Activities Construction Development
ADVANTAGE INDIA
ADVANTAGE INDIA
Demand for residential properties has surged due to increased Growing requirement of space from sectors
urbanisation and rising household income. India is among the such as education, healthcare, e-commerce
top 10 price appreciating housing markets internationally.
and logistics.
About 10 million people migrate to cities every
Growing demand of energy efficient and
year.
environment friendly architecture.
Growing economy driving demand for
commercial and retail space.
ADVANTAGE
INDIA
Driven by increasing transparency and The Government has allowed FDI of up to
returns, there’s a surge in private 100 per cent for townships and settlements
investment in the sector. development projects.
Real estate attracted around Rs 43,780 Under the Housing for All scheme, 60
crore (US$ 6.26 billion) worth of million houses are to be built, which include
investment in 2019. 40 million in rural areas and 20 million in
urban area by 2022.
Real Estate (Regulation and Development)
Act (RERA) 2016 will make the sector more
transparent.
GST rate is brought down to 5 per cent.
Source: KPMG, Report on Real Estate Sector in India – Corporate Catalyst India Pvt Ltd, USGBC, JLL India, Cushman & Wakefield, Knight Frank Active Capital, EY
MARKET OVERVIEW
AND TRENDS
SEGMENTS IN THE INDIAN REAL ESTATE SECTOR
Residential segment contributes ~80 per cent of the real estate sector. Housing launches across top eight Indian cities increased 23 pe
Residential space
Hotel room supply in the country increased 5.4 per cent y-o-y in FY19, totalling to 133,359 rooms at the end of FY19.
The sector is likely to attract an annual investment between US$ 0.5-0.6 billion during 2018-2022, with total investment reachin
Hospitality space
On February 29, 2020, India formally approved 417 SEZs, of which 238 were already in operation. Majority of the special economic zone
In March 2020, the Government approved proposals from TCS and DLF to set up SEZs for IT sector in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.
SEZs
Notes: SEZ - Special Economic Zone. IT - Information Technology, BPM - Information Technology Enabled Services
Source: KPMG Cushman and Wakefield, CRISIL, JLL India, ANAROCK Property Consultants, Colliers Research, CBRE
Real estate sector in India is expected to reach US$ US$ 1 trillion in Market size of real estate in India (US$ billion)
market size by 2030, up from US$ 120 billion in 2017. India’s real estate
market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 19.5 per cent during 2017-
2028. 1200
The Government launched 10 key policies for the real estate sector: 650
110.46
• Demonetisation 106
108.86
• PR for foreign investors 104
105.62
105.54
102
104.08
100
Sep'18Dec'18Mar'19Jun'19Sept'19
Notes: CAGR - Compounded Annual Growth Rate; F – Forecast, Information is as per latest data available, *average of indices of all cities, P – Projected
Source: KPMG, Report on Real Estate Sector in India – Corporate Catalyst India Pvt Ltd, CBRE, National Housing Bank
A localised and fragmented market presents Cumulative Housing Demand-Supply in Top 8 Cities (‘000 units)
opportunity for consolidation with only few large pan- 2016-20
India players like DLF.
Scenario More foreign players might enter the market as FDI
norms have eased.
Furthermore, norms on land acquisitions is expected
to be relaxed. 717
HIG
351
Rapid urbanisation.
Growth in population.
Key drivers
Easy availability of finance. 1,457
Repatriation of NRIs and HNIs. MIG Demand
Rise in disposable income. Supply
647
Notes: LIG – Low Income Group, MIG - Middle Income Group, HIG - High Income Group
Source : Cushman and Wakefield, Anarock Property Consultants
33.20 33.00
29
28
City-Wise Commercial Space Demand (million square feet) 2019
Bengaluru
NCR
Chennai
Pune
Ahemdabad
Mumbai
Kolkata
Hyderabad
Scenario 34
33
32
31
Notes: MNC - Multinational Corporation, BFSI - Banking, Financial and Insurance Services, CBD - Central Business District, SBD
30 - Special Business District, NCR - National Capital
Region, msf- million square feet
29
Source: Cushman and Wakefield
28
27
10 Real Estate For26updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
25
Key drivers 2016201720182019
OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW
Office market has been driven mostly by growth in BPM/IT, BFSI, Net Office Space Leasing in 2019 (million square feet)
consulting and manufacturing industries. Moreover, many new
companies are planning a foray into Indian market due to huge
18
potential and relaxed FDI norms.
5.2
Ahmedabad
1.351.5
Hyderabad
Bengaluru
0.8
Chennai
Mumbai
Kolkata
Pune
NCR
Notes: BPM - Information Technology Enabled Service. msf – million square feet
Source: Knight frank JLL India, Livemint, Colliers International, CBRE, JLL
253
Booming consumerism in India. 246
232
Organised retail sector is growing 25-30 per cent
219
annually. 200 212
203
188
India’s population below 30 years of age and
having exposure to global retail is expected to drive
150
demand for organised retail.
100
Source: : Cushman and Wakefield, CBRE, JLL India, Real estate intelligence service (JLL), Anarock
STRATEGIES
ADOPTED
STRATEGIES ADOPTED
Backward An architectural, structural and interior studio and a metal and glazing factory.
integration Interiors, wood working factory, and concrete block making plant.
In September 2019, DLF sold over nine acres of land in New Gurugram to American Express for about Rs 300
crore (US$ 42.92 million).
Merger & Raymond sold its 20 acres Thane land to Xander-backed VRSA for Rs 700 crore (US$ 98 million).
Acquisition (M&A) In January 2020, RMZ Corp entered into a strategic and equal partnership with Mitsui Fudosan (Asia) Pte Ltd to
expand its business footprint.
Iconic RK Studios property, located in suburban Chembur, was acquired by Godrej Properties.
Joint venture (JV) with land owners instead of amassing land banks. For example – Oberoi Realty, a Mumbai based
realty firm, adopted this strategy while entering the NCR region.
Risk management
On July 23, 2020, Sunteck Realty entered a joint development agreement with landowners to construct a housing
in land sourcing
project in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), having a revenue potential of Rs 5,000 crore (US$ 709.32
million) over the next five-seven years.
GROWTH DRIVERS
Growth in tourism Urbanisation
Epidemologica
l changes
Growth drivers
Growing economy
Growth in Household Incomes in Indian Cities (2019) Population breakdown of India (million)
1000
12% 900
800 900 909
1 880 893
700
0 9 9 10% 600
% % % 8 8 8 8 500
8% % % % % 400
300 543
6% 200 461 483
100 429
4% 0
Hyderabad
Delhi NCR
Bengaluru
Chennai
Mumbai
Kolkata
2%
Pune
0% 201520182020E2025F
UrbanRural
The Indian economy has experienced robust growth in the past decade and is expected to be one of the fastest growing economies in the
coming years.
India’s urban population is expected to reach 525 million by 2025, up from an estimated 461 million in 2018.
Rising income and employment opportunities have led to more urbanisation and more affordability for real estate in cities.
Foreign Tourists Arrivals in India (million) India’s Foreign Exchange Earnings From Tourism (US$ billion)
12.0
CAGR 7.1% 35.0 CAGR 10.01%
10.9
10.6
30.0
10.2
10.0
30.0
25.0
27.01
27.7
8.0
8.8
20.0
22.9
15.0
6.0 10.0
5.0
4.0 0.0
2.0
2016
2019
2017
2018
2017
2019
2016
2018
0.0
During 2019, foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) in India stood at 10.9 million, achieving a growth rate of 3.20 per cent y-o-y.
The Government of India has set a target of 20 million FTAs by 2020 and double its foreign exchange earnings.
India’s tourism and hospitality industry is anticipated to touch US$ 418.9 billion by 2022.
During 2019, India earned US$ 30.0 billion in foreign exchange from tourism, recording a y-o-y growth of 4.80 per cent. Foreign exchange
earnings (FEEs) from tourism in India grew at a CAGR of 8.96 per cent during 2007-19.
The growing inflow from tourists is expected to provide a fillip to the hospitality sector.
Medical tourism sector in India is gaining momentum with a target of attracting 8 million medical tourists into the country by 2020.
In order to boost affordable real estate, housing loans up to Rs 3.5 million (US$ 54,306) in metro cities were
included in priority sector lending by the RBI in June 2019. Loans under priority sector lending are relatively
cheaper.
Housing loans account for more than half of retail loans.
Housing for
economically
weaker section
In Union Budget 2019-20, the Government extended benefits under Section 80-IBA of the Income Tax Act till March
31, 2020 to promote affordable housing in India.
In February 2018, National Urban Housing Fund (NUHF) was approved with an outlay of Rs 60,000 crore (US$
9.27 billion).
On July 09, 2020, Union Cabinet approved the development of Affordable Rental Housing Complexes (AHRCs) for
urban migrants and poor as a sub-scheme under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana – Urban (PMAY–U).
FDI
The Government has allowed 100 per cent FDI for townships and settlements development projects.
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
Provision for reduction AREforHELPING
in minimum capitalisation THE
FDI investment from REAL
US$ 10 million to ESTATE
US$ 5 million to SECTOR
boost PROSPER
urbanisation.
In January 2018, the Government allowed 100 per cent FDI in single-brand retail trading and construction
development without Government approvals.
REITs
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in non-residential segment will open channels for both commercial and
infrastructure sector. In March 2019, Embassy Office Parks, India’s first REIT, went public.
First REIT raised Rs 4,750 crore (US$ 679.64 million) and was launched in early 2019 by global investment firm,
Blackstone, and realty firm, Embassy group.
In December 2014, the Government passed an ordinance amending the Land Acquisition Bill.
This ordinance is intended to speed up the process for industrial corridors, social infra, rural infra, housing for the
poor and defence capabilities.
5,147
3,178
Distribution
PE/VC Investments of Institutional
in Indian Real EstateInvestment in India (2014-19)
(US$ million)
2%
3%
5,500 8% Office
Residential Entity Level Retail Mixed-use Others
10%
4,500 40%
3,500
2,500
37%
1,500
500
2016201720182019
RBI proposed to allow banks to invest in real estate investment trusts and infrastructure investment trusts, attracting more institutional investors to
such assets. Indian Banks, which are allowed to invest about 20 per cent of their net-owned funds in equity-linked mutual funds, venture capital
(VC) funds and stocks, could invest in these trusts within this limit.
Between 2009-19, Indian real estate sector attracted institutional investment worth US$ 30 billion and received US$ 5.15 billion in 2019.
Investment from private equity (PE) players and VC funds reached US$ 4.47 billion in 2018 and US$ 1.47 billion in Q12019 in the sector. Real
estate attracted around US$ 14 billion from foreign PE players between 2015 and Q32019.
Institutional investment into Indian real estate sector stood at US$ 712 million during Q4FY20.
PE INVESTMENTS ON THE RISE
Note: PE – Private Equity, VC – Venture Capital
Source: EY, JLL India
SEZ exports from India (US$ billion) City-Wise Distribution of SEZs in 2019
120 100
80 8%
Bengaluru
60 13% 30% Hyderabad NCR
Chennai Pune
40 Mumbai
100.3
20 15%
85.5
4
78.07
71.38
0 16%
15%
FY16FY17FY18FY19
100 per cent FDI permitted for developing townships within SEZs with residential areas, markets, playgrounds, clubs, recreation centres, etc.
Export from SEZs reached Rs 7.01 lakh crore (US$ 100.30 billion) in FY19 and grew by about 14.5 per cent to Rs 3.82 lakh crore (US$ 54.66
billion) in April-September 2019.
In March 2020, proposals from TCS and DLF to set up SEZs for IT sector in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh was approved by the Government.
Industry players, including realtors and property analysts, are rooting for the creation of "Special Residential Zones" (SRZs) along the lines of
SEZs.
OPPORTUNITIES
Education
NCR
is expected to have the highest incremental demand from the education sector during the period of 2015-20.
The rising young population of India is expected to drive this space.
Healthcare
Senior citizen
housing
Emergence of nuclear families and growing urbanisation have given rise to several townships that are developed to
take care of the elderly.
A number of senior citizen housing projects have been planned. The segment is expected to grow significantly in
the future.
The segment in India can reach US$ 7.7 billion in market size by 2030 according to a study by the Ministry of
Commerce and Industry.
NICHE SECTORS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Service apartments
Growth in the number of tourists has resulted in demand for service apartments.
This demand is likely to grow and presents opportunity for the unorganised sector.
Hotels
FTAs in India is expected to reach 15.3 million by 2025, which is expected to lead to an increase in demand for
hotels.
Bengaluru
Chennai
Emerging as promising commercial destination with Chennai-Bengaluru Industrial Corridor – likely to witness strong
demand.
Hyderabad
Room demand is expected to be driven by commercial and office space projects in the city.
Kolkata
Projects like Light Rail Transport System, Monorail, Eco-Park, and Airport expansion are likely to boost travel,
which will result in increase in demand for the hotel industry.
Mumbai
TOP CITIES TO CONTRIBUTE TO GROWTH
Improved infrastructure, new airport terminal and upcoming airport in Navi Mumbai is expected to drive hotel
industry’s growth.
NCR
Higher floor space index and inclusion of hotel projects in infra lending lists provide a positive outlook for the hotel
market in NCR.
Pune
IT parks are attracting global players and increasing traffic. New business units are likely to increase business
conferences and events, which in turn will boost the demand for hotels.
KEY INDUSTRY
ORGANISATIONS
The Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India (CREDAI
27 Real Estate
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Real Estate
USEFUL
INFORMATION
GLOSSARY
US$ : US Dollar
Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
29 Real Estate
For updated
information, please
visit www.ibef.org
Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year) Exchange Rates (Calendar Year)
2004–05 44.95
2005–06 44.28
2006–07 45.29
2007–08 40.24
2008–09 45.91
2009–10 47.42
2010–11 45.58
2011–12 47.95
2012–13 54.45
2013–14 60.50
2014-15 61.15
2015-16 65.46
2016-17 67.09
2017-18 64.45
2018-19 69.89
2019-20 70.49
Year INR Equivalent of one US$
2005 44.11
2006EXCHANGE RATES
45.33
2007 41.29
2008 43.42
2009 48.35
2010 45.74
2011 46.67
2012 53.49
2013 58.63
2014 61.03
2015 64.15
2016 67.21
2017 65.12
2018 68.36
2019 69.89
India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) engaged TechSci Research to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared by TechSci
Research in consultation with IBEF.
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Market 1,000
HIG
717
1,982
LIG
25
2017 2030
Note: LIG – Low Income Group, MIG – Medium Income Group, HIG – High Income Group
Sector 15.30
Composition 12.80
9.70
8.60
5.20
1.50 0.80
1.35
Bengaluru Hyderabad Mumbai NCR Chennai Ahmedabad Kolkata Pune
Trends
3,178
28.00 28.70
Growth 15.00
-3.60 -1.60
0.26 0.82
Electricity National Highway Rail Freight Railway Cargo at
Generation Construction Earning Earnings Major Ports
158.51156.90
153.93147.70
147.00
145.74
133.47134.10
131.90131.20
129.40
129.10
109.83107.00
Sector Composition
84.46 89.80
65.09 69.00
Coal Crude Oil Natural Refinery Fertilisers Steel Cement Electricity Overall
Gas Products
FY19 FY20
Highway
Construction in India (Km)
370.34
370.11
356.10
9,828.00
344.00
326.84
Key
8,231.00
280.33
Trends
6,061.00
4,622.00
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20** FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21*
Note:*- April 2020, **- till September 2019
Infrastructure in India
A vast land of construction opportunity
pwc 1
Contributors Jonathan Hook, Michael Cracknell, Vasant Gujararthi, Ravi Bhamidipati,
Amrit Pandurangi, Girish Mistry, Hemal Zobalia, Vishwas Udgirkar, Mukesh Rajani,
Graham Dredge, Jimit Devani and Raj Julleekeea.
Principal author Elizabeth Montgomery
Graphic design Hamilton-Brown
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Contents
Welcome 3
Introduction 5
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the regulatory environment 6
Opportunities 7
Roads and highways
Rail
Ports and airports
Power
Public private partnerships
Challenges for local players and foreign companies looking to enter the market 14
Building a sustainable future in India 16
Concluding thoughts 17
Further reading 18
PricewaterhouseCoopers expertise in the E&C industry in India 20
2 PricewaterhouseCoopers
Welcome
In this paper, we examine the opportunities created, how onshore versus offshore Reasons to invest in India:
for the engineering and construction (E&C) services and supplies are managed in a
industry in India, one of the fastest growing • One of the world’s fastest growing
particular contract, and indirect tax economies – and growth expected to
economies in the world. We also focus on implications can all have a major impact
the structuring opportunities and some of continue at 7-7.5% despite the global
on the bottom line. Further, foreign players downturn
the challenges overseas participants are are likely to need to identify promising
likely to encounter. • Few restrictions on foreign direct
local companies, then make a case for a
investment (FDI) for infrastructure
India’s economy is big and getting bigger. profitable partnership, in order to achieve
projects
PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates a win-win situation in India. Still, there is a
that India will become the world’s third strong rationale for many E&C companies • Tax holidays for developers of most
largest economy by 2050. Liberalisation to invest in India sooner, rather than later. types of infrastructure projects, some
Not only are there substantial of which are of limited duration
of government regulations and a
deliberate strategy on the part of the opportunities now, but establishing • Opening up of the infrastructure sector
Indian Government to promote relationships and a presence in the market through PPPs
infrastructure spells opportunity for E&C can help to ensure continuing project
companies. potential over the medium- and long-term. Projected spending from FY07-FY12
Nearly all of the infrastructure sectors Looking ahead, we believe that it is in selected infrastructure segments:
present excellent opportunities, with roads imperative that infrastructure development • Electricity: US$167 billion
and highways, ports and airports, railways occurs in a sustainable manner, in India • Railways: US$65 billion
and power standing out as particular and around the globe, if the impact of
• Road and highways: US$92 billion
bright spots, with staggering sums of climate change is to be slowed to broadly
investment planned. Public private acceptable levels. The Indian Government • Ports: US$22 billion
partnerships (PPPs) are gaining in must maintain a commitment to ensuring • Airports: US$8 billion
importance, and are benefiting from that rapid growth does not happen at an
government support – targeted PPP untenably high environmental cost, and
participation is US$150 billion. Companies infrastructure projects will play a key role
experienced in structuring these types of in ensuring the success of ‘green growth’.
deals should be able to use their expertise Those E&C companies taking a holistic
to good effect in the Indian marketplace. approach to building a sustainable
infrastructure will have a strong
Operating in India requires a thorough
competitive advantage.
understanding of the local market.
Companies need to do their homework in
order to understand a host of tax and
regulatory issues before bidding on
projects or setting up operations. Whether November 2008
or not a permanent establishment is
Jonathan Hook
4 PricewaterhouseCoopers
Introduction
The Indian economy is booming, with realistic, even given the global credit Private sector participation is integral
rates of Gross Domestic Product crunch, and assured observers that to these plans. PPPs have been
(GDP) growth exceeding 8% every the country’s Government will take identified as the most suitable mode for
year since 2003/04. This ongoing action if necessary to support the implementation of projects – and
growth businesses and indeed, are rapidly becoming the funding
is due to rapidly developing services the financial markets. Mr. Singh has also norm. Their share of the total planned
and manufacturing sectors, increasing singled out infrastructure investment as infrastructure improvements is projected
consumer demand (largely driven by particularly vital. to be around 30% (US$150 billion). Power
increased spending by India’s middle and road projects top the list, and other
class) and government commitments to Indeed, even with a somewhat slower
transportation sectors such as railways,
rejuvenate the agricultural sector and rate of growth, the Indian economy is still
ports, and airports are also targeted for
improve the economic conditions of expanding significantly, and substantial
investment in infrastructure continues major investments.
India’s rural population. Construction
is the second largest economic activity to be required in order to sustain India’s Companies looking to capitalise on the
in India after agriculture, and has been economic progress. The country’s situation need to plan their strategy
growing rapidly. The production of capacity to absorb and benefit from new for entering the market carefully.
industrial machinery has also been on the technology and industries depends on the Understanding the local market,
rise – and the increasing flow of goods has availability, quality and efficiency of more including selecting complementary local
spurred increases in rail, road and port basic forms of infrastructure including partners, is vital. Tax optimisation is a
traffic, necessitating further infrastructure energy, water and land transportation. In key cost
improvements. some areas, roads, rail lines, ports and component – while substantial tax benefits
airports are already operating at capacity, are provided for infrastructure projects,
In the fiscal year ending March 2008, so expansion is a necessary prerequisite developers need to be savvy about
India’s GDP grew by more than 9%. to further economic growth. structuring their contracts. Good tax
This robust rate of expansion was planning can have a potentially decisive
initially forecast to continue in the 2008- The Indian Government recognises this
imperative. As per the Eleventh Five Year impact, especially in bidding situations,
2009 fiscal year. In summer 2008, and help to avoid unnecessary litigation
however, the combined impact of Plan, more than US$500 billion worth of
investment is planned to flow into India’s later.
slowing Indian consumption, a higher
domestic cost infrastructure by 2012. Construction
of capital and reduced capital access projects account for a substantial portion
of the proposed investments, making
from international capital markets raised
the E&C sector one of the biggest
concerns by some analysts that the rate
beneficiaries of the infrastructure boom
of growth might be slowing. In October
in India. The regulatory environment is
2008, India’s Prime Minister, Mr.
relaxing to encourage further foreign direct
Manmohan Singh, affirmed the
investment (FDI).
Government’s view that a rate of growth
of 7-7.5% remains
Infrastructure in India: A vast land of construction opportunity 5
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the regulatory
environment
Currently, India has FDI of about US$21 collaboration agreement in the same field • Power generation, transmission and
distribution and power trading (atomic
billion per year, well below the targeted
energy not permitted)
US$30 billion. In order to increase
FDI inflows, particularly with a view to • Mass rapid transport systems
catalysing investment and enhancing • Townships, housing, built-up infrastructure
infrastructure, the Indian Government has and construction-development projects
introduced significant policy reforms. For
example, it now permits 100% FDI under
the automatic route for a broad range of
sectors (see Figure 1) – only certain post- to promote the construction sector, the the development of certain sectors in India
investment intimation is required. For Indian Government has relaxed some may be hampered due to lack of adequate
FDI in a few sectors, a prior approval is of the exchange control restrictions and co-ordinated planning. Projects
required, which takes around 6-8 weeks. and is now allowing foreign nationals/ which are approved may face difficulties
As part of policy reforms, the Indian citizens to acquire immovable property in if related projects are substantially
Government is constantly simplifying the India, subject to certain conditions and delayed. One example is Bangalore’s new
approval route process, including setting procedures. international airport, one of the largest
up several agencies to expedite PPP projects to date. The project is facing
Hurdles to investment remain. Although
FDI approval. Further liberalisation is growing pains related to insufficient road
India has a well-developed legal
expected as the Government continues to and rail connections to the new facility,
system, the current legal and regulatory
emphasise infrastructure investment. in part due to delays of expected high-
environment sometimes acts as an
speed rail and highway projects under the
In August 2008, a press report stated that obstacle to the necessary injections
auspices of other government bodies.
Morgan Stanley was looking to invest of foreign private capital into India’s
up to a quarter of its US$4 billion global infrastructure. Major infrastructure
infrastructure fund in emerging markets, projects are governed by the concession
notably India and China – and that in India, agreements signed between public
Morgan Stanley would face competition authorities and private entities. Tariff
from Australia’s Macquarie Group, JP determination and the setting of
Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche performance standards vary somewhat by
Bank, all looking to channel foreign sector. In the roads and highways sector,
investors’ money into Indian infrastructure. the ministry generally sets tolls – while in
While some of this planned investment major ports projects, and many of those
may be reduced or delayed given the in electricity generation, an independent
current environment in the credit markets, regulator will decide relevant tariffs. In
India is still likely to garner substantial the airport sector, a new independent
FDI, particularly if its economy is able to regulator is planned for 2009 and is likely
maintain a fairly strong rate of growth in to play a major role in determining tariffs in
the face of a global recession. concession agreements for the segment.
In some instances, ministry or regulator
From an exchange control perspective, control over potential proceeds can act as
India is moving towards full current a disincentive to the private infrastructure
account convertibility. Most revenue developer.
transactions are freely permitted,
except certain transactions like royalty, As is the case in many countries, there
is no single regulator which formulates
consultancy fees, etc., which are
the policy for all infrastructure projects.
subject to certain limits. Capital account
There is also no standardisation in the
transactions need prior approval, except
concession agreements across the
where specifically permitted. In order
different infrastructure sectors. As a result,
6 PricewaterhouseCoopers
Opportunities
What segments present the best road infrastructure. Plans announced by are likely to reach the US$700 million-
opportunities for E&C companies? The the Government to increase investments US$800 million range. About 53 projects
Planning Commission of India has planned in road infrastructure would increase funds with aggregate length of 3000km and an
extensive expansion in the roads and from around US$15 billion per year to over estimated cost of around US$8 billion
highways, ports, civil aviation and airports, US$23 billion in 2011-12 (see Figure 2). are already at the pre-qualification stage.
and power infrastructure segments – all of The quantum of funds invested as part
which provide substantial opportunities for The procurement process favours players
of these programmes will significantly with good experience and sound financial
E&C companies. exceed that invested in recent history.
strength.
Such programmes would be funded via
Roads and highways a mix of public and private initiatives (see The opportunities do not stop there. More
Table 1). than 10 states are also actively planning
India’s roads are already congested, The Indian Government, via the National the development of their highways. While
and getting more so. Annual growth is Highway Development Program (NHDP), the average size of these projects is
projected at over 12% for passenger is planning more than 200 projects in smaller than the NHDP projects, most will
traffic and over 15% for cargo traffic. The NHDP Phase III and V to be bid out, still be substantial, in the US$100 million-
Indian Government estimates around representing around 13,000km of roads. US$125 million range. All told, more than
US$90 billion plus investment is required The average project size is expected to 4,500km of state highways are likely to be
over FY07-FY12 to improve the country’s US$150 awarded by the end of 2010.
million-US$200 million. Larger projects
Figure 2: Projected Investment in the Road & Highways Sector in the Eleventh Plan
23,387
Investment (US$ million)
25,000 19,971
17,273
20,000 15,976
15,104
15,000
10,000
5,000
E&C companies looking to invest in India Table 2: Types of taxes which may be applicable for E&C companies operating in India
need to consider a variety of tax issues.
Overall tax rates can be relatively high,
Nature of tax Governing Authority Rate of Tax (in %)
so careful tax planning is vital. Some
of the relevant taxes applicable to E&C Income Tax Central Government 33.99
companies are listed in Table 2.
Fringe Benefit Tax Central Government 33.99
Transfer pricing regulations were
introduced in India in 2001. Although Custom Duty Central Government Up to 31.70
transfer pricing regulations are a relatively Excise Duty Central Government Up to 14.42
recent phenomenon, the authorities have
taken an aggressive stance. There is no Service Tax1 Central Government 12.36
advance pricing arrangement (APA) yet
in India, so the implications of transfer Sales Tax/Value Added Tax (‘VAT’)1 State Government 4.00 to 12.50
pricing remain somewhat uncertain. 1
India is planning to implement a unified goods and service tax (GST) in 2010 at a rate still to be determined.
The Government’s strong focus on
promoting infrastructure development
also extends to tax policy, with a number
of policy measures and incentives now in
place for the construction of infrastructure Table 3: Overview of tax holiday terms for various infrastructure segments
facilities, including a numbers of tax
holidays, although Minimum Alternate
Tax (MAT) of 11.33% may be payable on
Sector Applicability Time-frame Eligibility
book profits during this period. Relevant Power • ‘Undertaking’ which • 10 consecutive years • All the above
tax holidays, their applicability, and the generates power out of 15 years should commence
eligibility of each infrastructure sector are • ‘Undertaking’ which (+complete) before
detailed in Table 3. transmits or distributes March 31, 2010
power
• ‘Undertaking’ which
Structural considerations for carries out substantial
developers renovation and
modernisation+
Dividends paid by an Indian company
Ports & • Indian companies • 10 consecutive years • ‘New’
are subject to a Dividend Distribution Airports developing and/or out of 15 years infrastructure
Tax (‘DDT’) of around 17%. operating & maintaining facility
ports and airports • Agreement with
In February 2008, the Finance Minister
announced some relief whereby a • Applicable also to government/ statutory
Inland waterway, Inland body
dividend paid to a parent company by its port, Navigational
subsidiary would not be liable to DDT, channel in the sea
subject to prescribed conditions. Earlier,
Railways • Indian companies • 10 consecutive years
corporates had a lean structure with one
developing and/or out of 20 years • ‘New’
company having many divisions catering operating & maintaining infrastructure
to different businesses. rail system facility
Following the recent change in DDT, many • Agreement with
corporates may be considering government/ statutory
Roads & • Indian companies • 10 consecutive years body
restructuring their corporate structure so Highways developing and/or out of 20 years
that different business streams have operating & maintaining • ‘New’
separate Indian operating companies with roads and highways infrastructure
• ‘Roads’ – includes toll facility
one common Indian parent. While such
types of structuring may help the parent roads, bridges • Agreement with
• ‘Highways’ – includes government/ statutory
company
housing or other body
to unlock shareholder value and should not
integral activities
impose any additional levy of DDT, it
should be noted that introducing a new Water • Includes water • 10 consecutive years
corporate layer at the Indian level will supply project, water out of 20 years
treatment system,
bring the shares in the Indian operating
irrigation project, • ‘New’
company within the Indian capital gains tax sanitation and infrastructure
net. sewerage system or facility
solid waste • Agreement with
Additionally, even if DDT is not due on
management system government/statutory
dividend payments, there would be an up
body
to 10% cash trap in the Indian operating
Infrastructure in India: A vast land of construction opportunity 11
companies, as in accordance with Indian establishment position, where if the contract would include both onshore and
regulatory provisions, only 90% of a Indian tax authorities successfully offshore activities (see Figure 3). Taxability
company’s distributable reserves may be argue that there is an Indian permanent of payments received by foreign
paid as dividends. establishment of the foreign operations companies under EPC contracts has
Therefore, a construction company in India, then there maybe significant become a matter of great debate and
working on multiple projects in India adverse tax implications. It is therefore litigation. Onshore
should consider all relevant factors important to carefully manage the supplies and services are normally taxable
bespoke to their requirements before operations carried out at the Indian level. in India. Offshore supply of goods and
structuring their operations. In practical terms in the E&C industry, services under a composite contract are
activities generally take a long duration something of a grey area. The Indian
to complete, and hence PE clauses revenue authorities often attempt to bring
International tax considerations (especially fixed base and service PE) the entire EPC contract, including the
come into play in this industry more often. offshore supplies and services, within the
Effective tax structuring into India is vital Table 4 details common types of PEs and range of taxes in India. The tax authorities
as this impacts on how attractive a
their considerations. may cite a business connection in India,
project is to target investors and has a
direct influence on the net internal rate of and also note the presumed indivisibility of
return. It is therefore particularly Cash and profits repatriation EPC contracts.
important that international investment Profit repatriation – There are various Nonetheless, some recent landmark
opportunities options on repatriating profits from the judicial rulings with regard to EPC
are structured appropriately to take into structure, such as dividend distributions, contracts in India suggest that tax
consideration tax, accounting, regulatory share sale, capital reductions, etc, all with outcomes for each of the components
and legal aspects. We have outlined differing tax impacts. of the contract must be determined
below some of the key areas to consider.
independently. These rulings have brought
Engineering, procurement and about a general principle that profit from
Entry and exit strategy construction (EPC) contracts – offshore supplies would not be taxable in
Holding company location – Appropriate onshore versus offshore India, subject to the following conditions:
planning in respect of a holding company In the E&C industry, the execution of • Principal to principal transaction
jurisdiction is necessary to minimise projects is undertaken substantially by • Title (i.e. risk and ownership) in the
Indian withholding tax and Indian capital way of an engineering, procurement and offshore supplies passed to the buyer
gains on the sale of shares in Indian construction (EPC) contract. A typical on high seas (outside India)
companies. EPC contract will have the following • Sale consideration is received outside
Financing – In order to introduce debt into scope of work in a single project: India
India, there are various issues that need • Supply of equipment (offshore and • Sale is at arm’s length
to be considered such as the Indian onshore)
External Commercial Borrowings rules, • Installation/commissioning Although the above rulings suggest that
withholding tax issues on distributions out offshore supply and services may not to
• Services (offshore and onshore)
of India and the availability of a tax be taxed in India, the taxability depends
deduction for the distribution at the Indian • Software/technology transfer (offshore on the specifics of each case. Further, the
level. and onshore) revenue authorities have not accepted
Under a typical EPC contract, a non- the above rulings and the matter is
Holding the investment resident contractor performs a multitude pending before the higher judicial
of activities. The scope of work under an authority. E&C companies should take
Permanent Establishments – One of care to structure contracts in a tax
EPC
the risks with managing investments in efficient manner, taking
India is managing the Indian permanent into account the particulars of each project.
12 PricewaterhouseCoopers
Higher depreciation – what Figure 3: Elements of a Typical EPC Contract
lies ahead?
EPC Contract
In order to make infrastructure projects
more attractive for companies and
investors, the Indian Government is
re-examining the existing depreciation
policy for such entities. The infrastructure
sector may be eligible for a higher rate Engineering Supply Erection,
& Design of Installation &
of depreciation in book value for BOOT
Equipm Commissioning
(build, own, operate, transfer) projects.
The Government is still examining this
proposal and also evaluating whether
depreciation
Offshore servicesOnshore services Offsh Onsh Onshore
could be a policy for amortisation of the ore ore
Sup Sup
entire expenditure for such companies.
Private players are needed to invest in
infrastructure projects on the BOOT
basis, and in the future, infrastructure
companies may benefit from the creation
of a sinking fund by such companies for
the concession period. Such a fund would
depend on the life of the project and the
concession period could vary widely,
depending on the contractual conditions of
the specific project. Table 4: Types of Permanent Establishments, when they occur, and issues to consider
“Foreign firms do Without doubt then, there is huge Domestic production of equipment and
not get their own opportunity in the Indian infrastructure
space in the short- and medium-terms
machinery is ramping up fast, but in the
short term, a foreign partner may be
infrastructure to at least. The policies of the Indian able to help fill in any gaps. There are
Government, which have been many factors that influence the role of
execute projects, such evolving very rapidly in recent years, the local players vis-à-vis foreign players
continue to encourage the private – for example, the criteria used for the
as skilled manpower, sector in taking on a larger and more selection of developers is an important
plants & equipments diverse role – from being an
infrastructure builder (under
influencer on what role the foreign
players will take.
and construction a publicly fi arrangement) to an Risk-sharing on a PPP project also needs
infrastructure developer (under PPP to be carefully considered. The revenues
materials etc. They structures which include private fi of most infrastructure projects in India will
These developments have led to a be denominated in the local currency.
usually try to employ large Foreign players will need to consider the
locally available number of infrastructure projects open up
as opportunities for the private sector.
currency and tax issues already
mentioned in some detail, particularly on
resources in order to Considering the liberal FDI guidelines,
a PPP project where
significant private investment is also sought.
cut costs.” these lucrative projects present both an
opportunity and a threat to local players. In International EPC contractors, including
Quote from a Government representative many cases, foreign players are believed Toyo Engineering, Jacobs H&G, Uhde,
to have greater technological expertise, Tecnimont and Aker Kvaerner, are already
deeper pockets and more extensive leading players in India. At the same time,
experience compared to domestic many Indian companies e.g. Larsen &
companies. These advantages could Toubro (L&T), Gammon, Bharat Heavy
mean overseas companies winning work Electrical Limited (‘BHEL’), Engineers India
at the expense of local players, or Ltd and Thermax have either scaled up
partnering with them. Domestic E&C their skill sets or extended their operations
companies to overseas projects.
may therefore look at foreign entrants in
India has a very well established
the market as tough competitors – or as
infrastructure developer market. Local
strong potential partners.
firms have evolved in recent times into
If most of the forecasted projects go fully-fledged national players (and in
ahead as planned, there should be more some cases international players). In
than enough work for everyone. Wharton certain sectors, such as highways, power
Business School’s 2007 analysis of India’s and
construction boom pointed out that the water, the local firms also have significantly
proposed US$50 billion infrastructure progressed on the technological front.
spend per year in India is nearly two and Some of the India-based companies
half times the current turnover of the entire such as L&T, Punj Lloyd, Reliance,
existing domestic construction industry GMR,
(US$15 billion and growing fast), and that Suzlon, Tata Power, etc. are very active in
many of the major E&C companies have the international markets and thus, can no
massive order backlogs. Wharton also more be deemed ‘local’ E&C companies.
flagged talent shortages as an issue in Indeed, they are global organisations
key skilled trades such as fitting, welding, based out of India. These and other large
masonry and plumbing – so drawing on firms clearly look at foreign players as
the talent pool of foreign partners may both partners and competitors. However,
help in supplementing and training local smaller and medium-sized infrastructure
tradesmen. India is also facing shortages construction companies and developers
of construction equipment and machinery. (such as KMC, Nagarjuna, IVRCL,
Gammon, etc.) are often happy to partner
14 PricewaterhouseCoopers
with foreign players without necessarily
considering them as competitors. “Foreign companies offer an excellent
The recent guidelines issued by the opportunity for a comprehensive tie-up to win
Indian Government for the selection
of PPP developers have also led to a projects and share the spoils. An attendant
slightly distorted behaviour in the local
marketplace. The guidelines favour
benefit is the transfer of technology to us at the
larger players, even when the project
investments and execution can be easily
end of it all.”
carried out by mid-sized companies. Quote from an Indian E&C company
This has led to situations where many
of the small/medium-sized local players
are looking at partnering with the foreign
players primarily for the purpose of
getting qualified and winning the job,
rather than to actually bring in investment “Entry of foreign players needs to be viewed as
or expertise. It is expected that such
behaviour will soon change as the a positive development to add value and state-
guidelines become more reflective of
market dynamics and mid-sized Indian
of-the-art technology to our highway projects.
companies mature. These firms will bring with them greater expertise
Foreign players looking to enter into the
Indian marketplace and team with local
in areas of highway construction technology,
players need to evaluate carefully the project management, project implementation
cost competitiveness of their prospective
participation. India has witnessed and monitoring expertise as well as technology
huge interest from a number of foreign
infrastructure companies in the past, transfer. The resultant benefits include savings in
but not many have really been able to
offer a cost-competitive proposal. Since
cost, time and improved quality of works, to the
India has evolved its own model of cost benefit of all.”
competitive delivery in many sectors
(for example, in telecoms), local players Quote from a Government representative
have an incentive to work with foreign
companies only if the partnering offers
a competitive edge over other bidders.
There have been few such success stories
so far where the foreign player has offered
a particularly cost-competitive product “Let us tie up with foreign companies from
or service. In instances where we have
seen the successful entry of foreign countries where we intend to do business in.
players (such as in the port sector), foreign
companies have often been able to bring
While we can help them enter India, they could
technology or management advantages, help us in expanding our business outside India
or expanded reach into international
markets, to supplement the capabilities of in countries where they operate.”
local partners. Quote from an Indian E&C company
Whilst the need for greater infrastructure in key social and economic infrastructure In our view, it is imperative that debate on
investment is clear, equally important is are maximised. the issue of sustainability in infrastructure
the need to sustainably manage such provision is heightened and that the
Global climate change creates further
investments. The Indian Government’s challenge that it presents is effectively
success in infrastructure provision will be challenges. New infrastructure must not
met. Government and infrastructure
measured not by the quantum of funds only support social and economic goals, it
agencies will also need to retain sufficient
invested, but on how infrastructure must also do so within acceptable focus on issues of feasibility and
contributes to the achievement of India’s environmental parameters. In our analysis prioritisation when the primary focus shifts
economic, social and environmental The World in 2050: Implications of global to delivery.
objectives. Importantly, infrastructure growth for carbon emissions and climate
investment should be considered as a change policy2, we set out a number of E&C companies looking to bid on major
means to an end, not an end in itself. possible scenarios for climate change projects need to ensure that they are
based on projected growth rates. In only taking a holistic approach which
Challenges in infrastructure provision are one of the scenarios, ‘Green growth + incorporates sustainability issues into the
not unique to India. Uncertainty, scarcity Carbon capture and storage (CCS)’, were design of the project, both in the planning
of available funds for investment, and emissions held to levels that are broadly and the delivery stages. Those that do so
competing priorities present challenges to considered to be ‘acceptable’ by have a unique opportunity to make a
all governments in infrastructure planning climatologists. major difference in a growing economy
and delivery. Sustainability requires that while enhancing their own bottom line.
future generations are not compromised Given that India’s growth rate is likely to
by the investment decisions of current continue at high levels, it is important that
generations. Sustainably managing considerations of issues such as fuel mix,
infrastructure through the appropriate encouraging more fuel efficient modes of
pricing, funding and prioritisation transport such as rail, and the possible
frameworks is important to ensure the use of CCS technology, come fully into
benefits that accrue from the significant discussion and are implemented whenever
investment that India is currently making possible.
2
Available to download at www.pwc.com
16 PricewaterhouseCoopers
Concluding thoughts
Building Knowledge
A quarterly series of short papers on highly topical issues for E&C companies, hitting
directly to the heart of the business issue addressed.
18 PricewaterhouseCoopers
Additionally, further reading on investing and operating in India, including
the following, is available to download at www.pwc.com/in
Destination India
Gives potential foreign investors a bird’s eye view of the tax and regulatory framework in
India. A foreign investor looking at investment opportunities in India, needs to decide its
entry strategy and business model while bearing in mind the gamut of Indian laws and
regulations impacting such foreign investment. The publication attempts to provide an
introductory summary of the policies, laws and regulations in India and a guide to the
more important aspects of doing business in India
India Spectrum
This quarterly newsletter encompasses a summary of recent important judicial and
legislative developments in the field of direct tax, indirect tax, transfer pricing, exchange
control regulations, and mergers & acquisitions.
In India, PricewaterhouseCoopers has development includes advising on some Key contacts for E&C in India:
extensive experience of working with E&C of the first port projects on a PPP basis,
companies and has a dedicated group of providing bid advisory and financial
over 350 professionals advising clients close assistance and strategic advice to
in the industry. The infrastructure team large Indian/international port
India E&C leader
works closely with our Real Estate, PPP developers, as well as advice to key
& Government practices. Our knowledge logistics player in strategic investments Ravi Bhamidipati
management programme focuses on and valuations
ravi.bhamidipati@in.pwc.com
the building of close networks and the for ports. We are currently advising a
sharing of information and expertise. Our government ministry on the development +91 (22) 6669 1308
assignments in all regions of the sub- of an international container trans-
continent have included both private and shipment terminal.
Advisory
public sector clients.
PricewaterhouseCoopers experts were
We have played an integral part in also involved in the first rail BOT project Amrit Pandurangi
the evolution of the highways sector, in India. We have experience advising amrit.pandurangi@in.pwc.com
serving as a thought leader for the railways on PPP structuring options for +91 (124) 4620 517
NHAI & Department of Road Transport railway projects and have also advised
and Highways. We have assisted NHAI on assignments for PPP structuring/ Vishwas Udgirkar
in the award and financial close of 35 bankability studies. We are also advising
vishwas.udgirkar@in.pwc.com
projects (total length of about 1700km) the Ministry of Railways on strategy
and cost of around US$3.5 billion. We formulation for the development of +91 (124) 4620 557
also assisted the NHAI in the manufacturing facilities for rolling stock.
preparation and finalization of the Model
As PPP projects are still relatively new Tax
Concession
to India, there are many taxation issues
Agreement being used for NHAI Projects. Girish Mistry
which are either evolving or still to be
Other projects include: Review of Model
determined. Therefore, adopting the girish.mistry@in.pwc.com
Concession Agreement (MCA), BOT Toll
correct tax position is important. Although +91 (22) 6689 1433
agreement & BOT Annuity agreements,
there are various tax incentives provided
OMT (Operation Maintenance Transfer)
to infrastructure companies, greater focus Hemal Zobalia
agreements. Further, we assisted the
is required to optimise the utilisation of
NHAI in evaluating various development hemal.zobalia@in.pwc.com
tax incentives. Further, there are various
models for National Highways and are
other important issues such as permanent +91 (22) 6689 1466
assisting State Governments in various
establishments and the taxability of EPC
aspects of policy formulation for the road
contracts, which need to be considered at
sector. International tax
the time of entering into a contract.
Our team has also advised both public Raj Julleekeea
Tax is also a key cost component. It is
and private entities on aviation issues,
imperative that companies structure raj.julleekeea@uk.pwc.com
spanning from work on the concession
their contracts in order to achieve tax +44 (0)1895 522 398
agreement for Bangalore International
optimisation. Good tax planning can
Airport and advising the Airport Authority
have a potentially decisive impact,
of India on a feasibility study of five
especially in the bid process, and can
non-metro airports, to bid support for
provide a clear competitive advantage.
a development project in Mumbai, to
PricewaterhouseCoopers was named
advising the AAI/Ministry of Civil Aviation
2007 India Tax Firm of the Year by
on formulating cargo policy.
International Tax Review (ITR)
Our experience in the area of ports magazine.
20 PricewaterhouseCoopers
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Design hb02851
INFRASTRUCTURE
Infrastructure has been considered the sunshine sector in India, and has played a pivotal role
in helping the country emerge as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The
sector is highly responsible for propelling India’s overall development and enjoys intense
focus from Government for initiating policies that would ensure time-bound creation of
world class infrastructure in the country. The real estate sector is closely related to
infrastructure and is fundamental to its growth.
The Public Private Partnership (PPP) model introduced by the Indian Government in the
sector has attracted domestic as well as foreign investment and stimulated the economy.
PPPs have been identified as the most suitable mode for the implementation of projects –
and indeed, are rapidly becoming the funding norm.
CURRENT SCENARIO
The infrastructure sector has become the biggest focus area of the Government of India.
Under Union Budget 2019-20, US$ 63.20 billion was allocated to the sector.
According to Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), Construction
Development sector and Infrastructure Activities sector received FDI inflows amounting
to US$ 24.90 billion and US$ 13.49 billion, respectively from April 2000 to September
2018.
Real estate sector in India is expected to reach a market size of US$ US$ 1 trillion by 2030
from US$ 120 billion in 2017 and contribute 13 per cent of the country’s GDP by 2025.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
Setting up of National Infrastructure and Investment Fund (NIIF) with initial investment
of INR200 billion to increase investment flow to infrastructure projects
The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) platform will help in allowing all kinds of
investors to invest in the Indian real estate market and would create an opportunity
worth Rs 1.25 trillion (US$ 19.65 billion) in the Indian market over the years.
Retail, hospitality and commercial real estate are also growing significantly, providing the
much-needed infrastructure for India's growing needs.
KEY INITIATIVE
Massive push to the infrastructure sector by allocating US$ 92.22 billion for the sector
Railways received the highest ever budgetary allocation of US$ 22.86 billion
US$ 31.81 billion will be invested in the smart cities mission. All 100 cities have been
selected as of June 2018.
The Government of India is working to ensure a good living habitat for the poor in the
country and has launched new flagship urban mission, the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana
(Urban).
State Wise Steel Demand in India
2
Contents
3
worldsteel’s India state wise steel demand study
Motivation of the study
▪ India is known as a country of potential, but there are different views about when India’s
steel demand will start to take off.
▪ India’s growth prospects can be better understood by looking at India by states as was
the case with worldsteel’s provincial approach to China.
▪ The Project Team looked into characteristics of states (“White book of Indian
states”) focusing on potential for growth of steel using sectors, notably construction
and manufacturing.
5
Project team
▪ The Project was conducted under Joint leadership of worldsteel and ISA since 2016 2H
▪ Key contributors
6
Estimating state wise steel demand – worldsteel approach
▪ In the absence of steel use statistics by state, SWIP share was used to estimate state
wise steel use
7
Aspects of state wise steel use in India
White books of India States
▪ Project Team has produced a “white book” for each state which covers the following aspects:
• Macroeconomic performance and drivers.
• Key policy initiatives and business environment.
• Overview of key industries in the state.
• Identification of steel demand drivers and SWOT analysis.
▪ Through this exercise, it was possible to identify and compare growth potential of different
states and the team has produced an evaluation of steel demand growth potential for
each state.
Note. 7 North Eastern states were approached in a consolidated way, the rest of the 22 states were studied separately along with National
Capital Region of Delhi.
9
States show uneven and multispeed development
▪ Regional growth has been uneven among states.
• West Bengal experienced economic decline after 1960s.
• Tamil Nadu on the other hand has grown steadily and consistently.
• Gujarat has been outperforming while northeastern states lag behind.
▪ Rich states are located in western/southern and northern India.
GDP per capita, 2015-16 GDP growth, CAGR 15-16 / 11-12
Jammu & Jammu &
Kashmir Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh
Punjab Uttarakhand Arunachal Punjab Uttarakhand
Haryana Haryana Arunachal
Rajasthan Uttar Sikkim Pradesh Uttar Sikkim Pradesh
Assam
laya Rajasthan AssamNagalan
Pradesh Bihar Nagaland Pradesh Bihar d Meghalaya
Megha Manipur Manipur
Gujarat Jhark- Jhark- WestTripura
Madhya WesTt Madhya
ripura
hand
Pradesh Chhattis- Mizoram Gujarat
Bengal Chhattis- Mizoram
Pradesh garh Bengal
hand
Maharashtra garh Odisha Maharashtra Odisha
Telang < 50 k INR Telang <4%
ana
ana
Goa Andhra 50-100 k INR Goa Andhra 4-6 %
KarnatakaPradesh Source:
Central aka Pradesh
Karnat
Tamil Statistics 100-140 k INR Tamil
Office,
KeralaNadu worldsteel Nadu Kerala
> 140 k INR
6-8 %
>8%
10
Crude steel production by states
▪ Steel production centres: raw materials (iron ore) driven (Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and
Karnataka) or port based and proximity to markets (Maharashtra and Gujarat).
Jammu &
Kashmir PunjabHimachal Pradesh
Uttarakhand Haryana
Apparent steel use,
Mt
India total: 76.4 Mt
Arunachal
14,000 Delhi Pradesh
Sikkim
12,000 Rajasthan Uttar AssamNagaland
Pradesh MeghalayaManipur
Bihar
10,000
Gujarat Madhya Jhark- West Mizoram Tripura
Pradesh hand Bengal
8,000
Chhattis- Odisha
garh
6,000 Maharashtra
< 1 Mt
Telangan
4,000 1-3 Mt
a
Andhra
2,000 Goa
3-10 Mt
Karnataka Pradesh
0,000 > 10 Mt
Tamil
Kerala Nadu
12
Steel geography of India is unbalanced
▪ Steel producing states in the east have not seen development of own steel markets.
▪ Therefore intra-state trade in steel has been a common feature.
Steel use
Jammu Jammu Steel production
& &
Kashmir Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh
Punjab Punjab
Uttarakhand Arunachal Uttarakhand Arunachal
Haryana Haryana
Pradesh Pradesh
Rajasthan Uttar Sikkim Assam Rajasthan Uttar Sikkim Assam
Pradesh N agaland
Nagaland Meghalay a
Bihar Meghala ya
Manipur Pradesh Bihar Manipur
Gujarat Madhya West
Pradesh
Jhark-
Bengal Tripura Gujarat MadhyaChhattis-Jhark-WestTripura
Mizoram
Chhattis- hand Mizoram Pradesh handBengal
garh Odisha
Maharashtra garh Odisha Maharashtra
< 1Mt
Telanga Telang
na 1-3 Mt ana
Goa Goa Andhra
Andhra
Karnata Pradesh 3-8 Mt Pradesh
ka Karnata ka
Tamil >8 Mt Tamil
Nadu Kerala
Kerala iron ore production Nadu
(major sites)
Source: worldsteel estimation, 2014-15 Source: Joint Plant Committee, 2015-16
13
Steel use across states is also uneven
▪ Among rich states, only a few states show high steel use per capita, e.g. Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra,
Gujarat, Goa.
▪ North-Eastern states feature low steel use per capita, e.g. Assam, Manipur, Nagaland
▪ Some states have high steel use per capita despite low per capita income, driven by infrastructure, e.g.
Uttarakhand.
kg
k INR
250 Apparent steel use per capita
300
ASU per capita, kg Jammu &
200 250
Kashmir
GDP per capita, k INR Himachal Pradesh
200 Punjab Uttarakhand
150 Haryana Arunachal
150 Uttar Sikkim Pradesh
100 Rajasthan AssamNagaland
Pradesh Bihar Meghalaya
100 Manipur
Gujarat Madhya West Tripura
Jhar k-
Pradesh d Mizoram
Bengal
Chhattis-han
50 Odisha
50 Maharashtra garh
Telang
India average: 60.3 kg
Uttarakhand
0 0 ana
Goa Andhra < 50 kg
Haryana Pradesh
Karnataka
Tamil 50-100 kg
aharashtra
Nadu
Kerala
Source: Central Statistics Office, worldsteel estimation, 2014-15 > 100 kg
14
Diverse patterns of steel use of Indian states
▪ Reflecting uneven and diverse economic growth patterns, different states shows
different tracks of S-curve.
S-curve, 2004-05 – 2014-
ASU/cap 15
300
Goa
250
Haryana
Kerala
200 Maharashtra
Orissa
150
Uttar Pradesh
100
50
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 GDP/cap
Source: worldsteel estimation, 2004-15
15
Insights on state wise steel demand prospects
Insight 1: Uneven growth will continue, but catching-up
is taking place in some states State GDP growth
CAGR 15-16 / 11-12 (India average: 6.7 %)
(1/2) Gujarat
Himachal Pradesh
9.5
7.6
Karnataka 7.5
Chhattisgarh 7.3
▪ Uneven economic performances of Indian states has Haryana 7.1
Uttarakhand 7.0
been driven by geography, natural resources and Maharashtra 6.6
socio-political environments. Madhya Pradesh 6.6
West Bengal 6.4
Andhra Pradesh 6.4
▪ Political leadership and consistent policy had important Jharkhand 6.3
North East states 6.1
influence on the economic performance of the Odisha 5.9
Tamil Nadu 5.7
advanced states (e.g. Gujarat). Rajasthan 5.6
Sikkim 5.6
Telangana 5.2
▪ Central government’s focus on improving ease of Jammu and Kashmir 5.1
doing business has prompted pro-business reforms in Uttar Pradesh 5.0
Punjab 4.7
various states. Kerala 4.6
Bihar 4.5
Goa 1.0
18
Insight 2: Service sector will continue to be a growth driver
▪ Service sector has been the key growth driver for India, enabling employment generation with less capital
investment.
19
Insight 3: Manufacturing is slowly gaining momentum (1/2)
▪ The share of manufacturing in India’s GDP stayed within 14-16% in the last 40
years, only recently rising to 18%.
▪ Some states have strong presence of manufacturing due to:
Share of manufacturing in GDP
• Unfavorable climate for agriculture (e.g. Gujarat,
Jammu &
Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu). Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh
• Mineral deposits leading to heavy industries base (e.g. Punjab
Uttarakhand Arunachal
Haryana Pradesh
Goa, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand). Rajasthan Uttar Sikkim Assam
Nagaland
Pradesh
Bihar Meghalaya
• Special tax benefits (e.g. Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh Gujarat Madhya
Jhark- West
Bengal Tripura
Manipur
20
Insight 3: Manufacturing is slowly gaining momentum (2/2)
▪ Some states will have stronger focus on manufacturing: Potential for growth,
manufacturing
• Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, and
(steel intensive)
Haryana have made significant progress in implementing
Jammu &
business reforms and suitable infrastructure. Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh
Punjab Arunachal
• States like Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana
Uttarakhand
Pradesh
Punjab have renewed thrust on manufacturing, especially Sikkim Assam
Rajasthan Uttar Meghala Nagaland
Pradesh
in auto and ancillary sector. Bihar
Jhark-
ya
Manipur
Tripura
Gujarat Madhya
▪ Within the manufacturing sector the focus is more on Pradesh
Chhattis-
garh
hand
West
Bengal
Mizoram
Odisha
relatively labour intensive ones like food processing and Maharashtra
Telanga
textiles. na
Potential for growth:
▪ Mechanical machinery and shipbuilding sectors are less Goa Andhra
Pradesh low
prominent across states with a few exceptions (e.g. Punjab Karnataka
medium low
and Gujarat). Kerala
Tamil
Nadu
medium high
high
Source: Project Team Analysis
21
Insight 4: India’s auto manufacturing hub will expand
Automotive industry in India
▪ India’s auto industry has shown a strong growth driven
by domestic demand and FDI inductive policies.
22
Insight 5: Construction will be a common demand driver
▪ Growth in the construction sector will be a pan-India phenomenon driven both by infrastructure spending
and housing demand, especially affordable housing.
▪ Construction has gained significant share in Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, etc.
▪ Majority of states are expected to have strong infrastructure development, especially along major corridors.
▪ In some states, like Jammu & Kashmir and Bihar, steel demand will be driven almost entirely by
infrastructure development.
Share of construction in GDP Potential for growth, infrastructure
Jammu & Jammu &
Kashmir Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh
Punjab Himachal Pradesh
Uttarakhand Arunachal Punjab Uttarakhand Arunachal
Haryana Haryana
Uttar Sikkim Pradesh
Nagaland Uttar Bihar Pradesh
SikkimAssam
Rajasthan Pradesh Assam Rajasthan Pradesh Nagaland
Bihar Meghalaya Meghalaya
Madhya
Jhark- West Manipur Manipur
Mizoram Madhya Jhark- West
Gujarat Pradesh hand
ra Tripu
Bengal Gujarat Ch hattis- Tripura Mizoram
Chhattis- Pradesh gar
handBengal
h
Maharashtra Odisha
garh
Maharashtra
Odisha
Potential for growth:
Telan <6% Telan
gana gana
low
Goa Andhra 6-8 % Goa Andhra medium low
Karnata Pradesh Karnataka Pradesh
ka
Tamil 8-10 % Tamil medium high
KeralaNadu Kerala Nadu
Source: Central Statistics Office
> 10 % Source: Project Team Analysis
high
23
Insight 6: Steel geography of India will remain unbalanced
▪ Gujarat, Maharashtra and Haryana are likely to experience strongest growth in steel demand.
Tamil Nadu also has good potential.
▪ The unbalanced steel geography will continue: capacity expansion have been mostly brownfield and
new steel production facilities most likely to be built around raw materials.
▪ With decreased transportation cost, intra-state trade steel trade will continue to prevail.
Potential for steel demand growth Increase in annual crude steel production
(from 2010/11 to 2015/16)
Jammu &
Kashmir Jammu &
Kashmir
Punjab Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand Arunachal Haryana
Punjab
Haryana Pradesh Arunachal
Rajasthan Sikkim Assam Pradesh
Uttar Nagaland Uttar Sikkim
Rajasthan
Pradesh Bihar Megha laya Pradesh AssamNagaland
Jhark- Manipur Bihar Meghalaya
Jhark- Manipur
Gujarat Madhya Chhattis-hand WestTripura Mizoram Gujarat Madhya West Tripura
Pradesh Bengal Chhattis-hand Mizoram
Pradesh Bengal
Maharashtra garh Odisha Potential for growth: Maharashtra garh
Odisha
Telang Telang
ana Andhra low ana Andhra
Goa medium low medium high Goa
KarnatakaPradesh Pradesh
Tamil KeralaNadu Karnataka
Source: Project Team Analysis Tamil
Kerala
Nadu
high Source: JPC
Increase of >1 Mt
Summary and conclusion
Steel demand potentia
Summary of state potential
Gujarat,
H Haryana,
Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra
Chhattisgarh,
Jharkhand,
MH Karnataka, Odisha, Tamil Nadu
Telangana,
Uttar Pradesh,
Uttarakhand
Bihar, Jammu and Assam, Goa,
North East ex Kashmir, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh,
ML Assam Madhya Pradesh,
West Bengal
Punjab, Rajasthan
Sikkim
L
L ML MH H
26
Geography of economic vs steel demand potential
▪ Eastern states are expected to catch up in economic development.
▪ Infrastructure will be a pan-India steel demand driver, driven by various government initiatives.
▪ Strong manufacturing potential are shown in a limited number of states.
▪ Gujarat, Maharashtra, Haryana show strongest, balanced potential.
27
When will India’s demand take off?
Steel demand per capita, kg/ person India 2018 to 2030
350
China 2008
300
India
Inflection imminent
250 2005
200
Inflection later
150
50 2014 2018
1990
2000
0
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000
29
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