On the Interpretation of Censuses as Samples

Author(s): W. Edwards Deming and Frederick F. Stephan

Source: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 36, No. 213 (Mar., 1941), pp. 45-
49
Published by: American Statistical Association
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 ON THE INTERPRETATION OF CENSUSES AS SAMPLES
BY W. EDWARDS DEMING AND FREDERICK F. STEPHAN
Bureau oftheCensus

F OR INVENTORY PURPOSES an enquirymustbe complete.

historicalprecedenceand by law, one of the primaryfunctionsof
Both by

the census is to provide a count or inventoryof the population as it

actually existed on a specifiedcensus date (April 1st forthe censuses
of 1930 and 1940). Certain actions, involvingthe apportionmentof
taxes and Congressionalrepresentation, are based on the censusfigures,
purelyas an inventoryas of a certaindate. States and cities likewise
utilize the census returnsforreapportionment of the state legislatures
and the citycouncils,forrevisingelectiondistricts,and formanyother
administrativepurposes.These inventoryfunctionsare limitedby the
fact that the census informationconcerningindividuals is held confi-
dential; consequently,states and cities oftenmaintain other lists for
inventorypurposes,examplesbeing tax rolls,citydirectories,the regis-
trationforselectiveservice,and social securityregistration.
For such purposes,the census must by definition,be complete. It
differsnot only quantitativelybut qualitativelyfromany sample less
than 100 per cent that mightbe taken. This distinctionis independent
of any defectsthat may occur in carryingout eitherthe census or the
sample.
As a basisforscientific and decisionsforaction,a census
generalizations
is onlya sample.In additionto serving thefunction ofan inventory as
ofa certaindate,thecensustabulationsservealso anotherimportant
objective,namely,as bases forprediction.Any social or economicgen-
eralization,and any recommendationfora course of action,involvesa
prediction.For such purposes,the census takes on the characterof a
sample.
Any censusgivesdata ofthe past, but the generalizationsand courses
of action that are based on it concernthe populationas it will exist at
some timein the future.A census describesa populationthat is subject
to the variationsof chance,because it is onlyone of the many possible
populationsthat mighthave resultedfromthe same underlyingsystem
of social and economiccauses.
The births,deaths, vocations, migrations,and educational attain-
mentsof a populationare changedand directedby a myriadof chance
causes, superimposedon certainunderlyingsocial and economiccause
systems.A censusshowswhat resultedfromthis combinationat a cer-
tain timein the past, but any generalizationsthat are not restrictedto
45

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46 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION*

a particulardate and place must recognizethe fact that some other

populationmighthave resulted,and must in fact be expectedto arise
in the futurefromthe same underlyingcauses. Because of these statis-
it followsthat as a basis forscientificgeneralizations
tical fluctuations,
and decisionsforaction,the distinctionbetweencompleteand sample
coveragesis oftenonly a matterof degree.
Then, too, the state of a populationtoday depends not only on the
actions of chance today, but also on the actions of chance in the past.
In other words, the population of any area today depends partly if
not largelyon that population as it existed a year ago, or two years
ago, etc. A commontechnicalexpressionis to say that thereexists a
serial correlationbetween the states of a population on two different
dates. It followsthat for predictingthe state of a population next
year, the census of that population as it actually existed on the last
census date is more usefulthan a census of this same populationas it
mighthave existedby possibledifferent actionsof chance. Fortunately,
the only census that we can take is the one that is the most useful.
Moreover,because of serial correlation,it is desirablethat the census
or sample of the population on the census date be as precise as
possible.'
These ideas are not new. The sense of thempermeatesa considerable
amount of statisticalwork and writing,yet they are far frombeing
well recognized,and thereis a dearth of explicitstatementsof them.
Because of theirextremeimportanceit seems worthwhileto put them
into print,even ifit has been done before.
The two excerptsgivenbelow are quoted forthe claritywithwhich
theysummarizethe argumentsof this section.

A so-called 100 per cent sample fromthe viewpointof scientificmethod

is, as soon as taken,a sample of the past. The usefulnessof such a sample
is onlyas a basis fordrawingan inference about the futureand in thiscase
the sample (even a 100 per cent sample) is but a finitesample of a poten-
tiallyinfiniteone that mightresultfromthe cause systemexistingat the
timethe sample was taken.2

In all scientificinvestigationsthe object is to find,not the situationthat

prevailsat a particularmoment,but the underlyingtendenciesand rela-
tions which, with chance modificationsdeterminethese situations ap-
proximately.The chiefobject in samplingthe populationof Seattle is to
findout somethingabout the underlyingrelationsthat make that popula-

I In substance,this paragraphwas expressedby Dr. Leon E. Truesdellin a conversationwiththe

authors.
2 Extractedfroma letterwrittenby Walter A. Shewhartto W. Edwards Deniing,dated 9 May

1940:

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 OF CENSUSES AS SAMPLES
ON THE INTERPRETATION 47
tion what it is. The situationin the city fluctuatescontinually,and what
is foundtoday will not be exactlytrue tomorrow.3
Comparative advantagesofa censusand otherkindsofsamplesin scien-
When a givensum of moneyis to be expendedon a
tificinvestigations.
scientificstudy of some subject, the object is invariablyto arrive at
generalizationsand conclusionson which to base predictions.A well
designedsample will then elicit the greatestpossible amount of infor-
mation; in fact,forsuch purposesthereis no procedureof enquirythat
is not a samplingprocedure-some are only moreefficient than others.
A numberof small samples,taken in different parts of the country,or
at differenttimes,may be muchmorevaluable than a sample consisting
of a completecoverage of one small area. Likewise, sample enquiries
spaced a year or two apart may be preferableto a completecoverage
of the same area taken everyten years.4
As the proportionof any attributeof the population diminishes,a
largerand largersample is requiredforestimatingthisproportionwith
a given degreeof reliability.Hence small samples are not adequate to
providedata that are to be tabulated in fineclassifications,or by small
geographicareas, such as small citiesor townships.The reason is that
in the resultingtables those cells that are to be used formakingpre-
dictionsmust not be reduced to a point wherestatisticalfluctuations
may disturbthe reliabilityof the predictions.Small samples are ade-
quate, however,for many questions on which data are needed prin-
cipallyforthe largerpopulationgroupings,cities,states,regions,or for
the entireUnitedStates, and whichin tabulationare to be dividedinto
relativelyfew sub-classes; for these a properlydesigned sample will
yield resultsthat are as satisfactoryforgeneralizationsand courses of
action as the resultsobtainable froma completecanvass, quickerand
at muchreducedcost. The small loss of precisionand detail in a sample
is usually much more than offsetby the accompanyingsavings in ex-
pense, and such savings open up the possibilityof coveringa wider
territoryor conductingseveral enquiriesspaced in time,or carryinga
greaternumberof questions than would otherwisebe includedon the
schedule,or ofpublishingmoretabulationson whateverdata are taken.
A strikingresultof what has just been said is that, except when a
censusis by definitionmerelyan inventory,small numbersin the cells
of a table derivedfroma completecanvass do not have much signifi-
cance-no more than if they were derived froma sample. There is a
limit,therefore,to the amountof detail that willbe foundusefulin the
8 Extractedfroma letterwrittenby Harold Hotellingto LesterFrankel,dated 30 July1938.
in his chapter'Sociology and Sampling,'
developed by SamuelA. Stouffer
' These ideas arefurther
Ch. xvi in T'heFields and MethodsofSociology,editedby L. L. Bernard (Long and Smith, 1934); see
in particularpp. 479 and 481.

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48 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION*

cross-tabulation,not only of sample data, but of a complete census.

Of course,the limitis reached quickerwith the sample data; and the
smallerthe sample,the quickerthe limitis reached.
Some noteson criteriaforappraisingtheadequacyofsampling.In de-
ciding whetherthe frequencyof a certainattributeof the population
can be estimatedsatisfactorilyon a sample basis, considerationneeds
to be given not only to the detail that will be requiredin tabulation,
and the relationof this detail to the proportionp with which the at-
tributeappears in the population (i.e., whetherp =.5, .1, .01), but also
to the questionof how much informationis already available concern-
ing this attribute.If little is known about it, neithera sample nor a
singlecompletecoveragemay suffice;a numberof samplesor complete
coverages,separated eitherin time or space, may be required.On the
other hand, when a considerableamount of informationhas already
accumulated, a small sample taken every five years or every decade
may sufficeforcontinuity.Thus, questionson parentagehave been a
part of the census for several decades, and this is one reason why a
sample will provide all the new informationthat is requiredon this
subject.
A samplingmethodis said to be satisfactoryforthe questionsunder
considerationif it can be depended on to yield samples (less than 100
per cent) that will lead to the same action as would have been taken on
the basis of a completecount. In the usual statisticalterminology, the
populationsampled is the populationas it existedat the timethe sam-
ple enquirywas made. A numberof samples taken on this date would
be expectedto exhibitstatisticalstability,in the sense that theywould
all be drawnfromthe same population. From the point of view being
expressedhere,however,even a completecensus,forscientificgenerali-
zations,describesa populationthat is but one of the infinity of popula-
tions that will resultby chance fromthe same underlyingsocial and
economic cause systems.This infinityof populations may itself be
thoughtof as a population,and mightpossiblybe called a super-popu-
lation. A sample enquiryis then a sample of a sample, and a so-called
100 per centsample is simplya largersample,but is stillonlya sample.
In orderto studytheunderlyingcause systems,it is necessaryto study
several membersof this infinityof populations; i.e., it is necessaryto
make sample or census enquirieson a numberof different dates, pref-
erablyfarenoughapart to be independent,or nearlyso.
Fromwhat has been said, however,it followsthat a samplemay be at
once satisfactoryforthe questionsunder consideration(in the sense of
leading to the same action that would be taken on the basis of a com-

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*ON THE INTERPRETATION OF CENSUSES AS SAMPLES 49
plete count),yet unsatisfactoryforbeing representativeof an unrepre-
sentativepopulation.Thus, fora severelyfluctuatingpopulation,even
a 100 per centsample on a particulardate may lead to action not at all
fittingto the future.For example, at the time the census of South
Bend was taken in August 1939, the Studebakerplant was just in the
processof preparingforthe productionof new models,with the result
that the numberof men at workthat week was unusuallylow, and was
in fact very differentfromthe numberof men at workthe next week.
Any action that did not take account of the fact that this was an un-
usual situation would not have been fittingto the population being
studied.
As a basis for action,a sample may be preferablebecause of shorter
processingtime.Census and sample are both subject to the common
errorthat arises fromthe fact that the social order is not static, but
dynamic. It takes time to process and tabulate a small sample, but
morefora completecanvass. For thisreason,in some kindsofenquiries,
the completecanvass, by the time it is processedand tabulated, may
not be as good a basis forsocial action as the earlierreturnsof a sample
coverage would have been. To the extentthat samplingmethodspro-
duce quicker results,they also produce more accurate resultsforpur-
poses of prediction.The errorthat lurksin predictingthe futurefrom
the past may thus be greaterwhen the predictionis based on a com-
plete canvass than when it is based on a sample.

The authors have had the advantage of numerousdiscussionswith

Drs. Walter A. Shewhart,Harold Hotelling,Leon E. Truesdell, and
Philip M. Hauser concerningthe interpretationof census and sample
data, and expresswith pleasure theirindebtednessto these friends,in
particularforthe lettersquoted in the text.

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