TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Brock McCleary

Date: September 2, 2020
RE: Key Poll Findings—Minnesota Statewide Survey

Harper Polling conducted a survey of 501 likely voters in Minnesota via landline and cell phone interviews conducted
with live operators at a professional call center. The survey was completed August 30-September 1, 2020 and has a
margin of error of +/-4.38%. The following memo covers key findings from the survey.

Summary: Since May, Jason Lewis has narrowed the race from a +11% Smith advantage to just +2%. A
similar trend is seen up-ballot with the Presidential race. Tina Smith’s recent comments about the role
police play in our society are unpopular with her constituents, particularly with voters in the outer Metro
counties.

1. In the race for US Senate, Jason Lewis is nearly tied with incumbent Tina Smith. He has gained
substantial ground on Smith since May.

50 46
41 43
40 35 Lewis
30
20 Smith
20
10
10
Undecided
0
May August

• Among voters who are extremely enthusiastic about voting, Lewis leads Smith (44-43%).

• Lewis nearly matches Smith in partisan support (Republicans: 84% Lewis, Democrats: 89% Smith) and
leads among Independents (40-35%).

• Lewis performs at or near-majority levels in Southern Minnesota (49-36%), Northern Minnesota (51-37%)
and the outer metro counties (50-31%).

2. The Presidential race has similarly

narrowed, with President Trump now 60
50
trailing Joe Biden by just 3%.
50 42 45 48 Trump
• President Trump now leads in the outer 40
metro counties (56-37%). 30 Biden
• The candidates are tied among 20
8
Independents (40-40%). 10 4
Undecided
0
• 52% of likely voters approve of the
President’s handling of the economy. May August

1600 K St NW, Ste 350 HarperPolling.com info@HarperPolling.com

Washington, DC 20006
3. Tina Smith’s recent comments that we need to “reimagine the police” and that there is something
“dangerously wrong with the role police play in our society” are unpopular with her constituents,
particularly those in the critical outer Metro region.

Q: Do Tina Smith's comments make you more likely

or less likely to vote for her for Senate?
60
57
48
50
More Likely
40
28
30 23
17 Less Likely
20 14
10
No Difference
0
Statewide Outer Metro

4. The generic ballot for Senate demonstrates

the competitive nature of the state. Total Republican: 43%
Total Democrat: 45%
• Self-identified Independents prefer a 9%
Republican candidate (40-35%). Definitely Republican
9% 3% 35%
Probably Republican
• The generic ballot has tightened since May
Definitely Democrat
(was 40-44%).
Probably Democrat
Someone else
36% 8%
Unsure/Refused

5. As an incumbent, Tina Smith fails to crest 40% favorability and has an elevated unfavorable
percentage (39%/21%). Smith’s image weakens further in Northern Minnesota (39%/29%) and with
voters in the outer metro (32%/26%).