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 01 INSTRUCTORS

02 INTERNATIONAL
Article 1: Sino-India recent clash
Article 2: Afghan power share deal and
Kabul’s political impasse
Article 3: American political decay isn't
caused by Trump. The blame rests
squarely on the US Congress
Article 4: China-Iran strategic nexus:
CONTENT
Implications for Pakistan
Article 5: Trump’s Israel-Palestine
peace plan: The farce, the fraud and the
fury

03 NATIONAL
Article 1: Gender based voilence in
Pakistan
Article 2: Pakistan’s economy one year
after the IMF bailout
Article 3: Combating socio-economic
impacts of Covid-19 by Pakistan: Success
or Failure?

04 ESSAY OF THE MONTH

05 QUICK FACTS
06 MONTHLY PRESS REVIEW
Tortuous relations between Pakistan and Iran
Covenant with God
Status quo policies
India’s two fronts
How to deglobalize
Will Afghanistan’s long-delayed peace ever arrive?
Pakistan’s actual fault lines
Hagia Sophia Mosque
The plight of minorities in India
FATF restrictions and economic terrorism
Modi’s Kashmir blunder
Corruption has only mushroomed
Locusts: drone remedy
Time to bury the hatchet

07 GENERAL ABILITY

08 PAST PAPERS MCQs COMPILATION

International
SINO-INDIAN RECENT
CLASH
Background
Terrain dispute

1
The flashpoints of north
Lamas of tibet and Sino-Indian tensions June 15
faceoff
Conflict: claims and counterclaims Chinese
angle
Trade relations
Normalization of relations
Indian options
Way forward

Zohaib Ahmed Anjum, PAS

Sino-Indian recent clash
Zohaib Ahmed Anjum, PAS

Background
The recent clashes between Chinese and Indian forces in the disputed Himalayan region left 20 Indian soldiers
dead and an unknown number of Chinese casualties in a hand to hand combat. Despite being earlier reports of
both sides agreeing to deescalate tensions, clash erupted on June 15, 2020.
Both China and India have been patrolling this region for decades on 2200 miles long border. Both sides have
different views on the actual position of Line of Actual Control (LAC) resulting in frequent clashes and a brief
war in 1962.

Terrain and Disputes

The Himalayan region has a complex terrain, unclear
borders. Since the departure of British this region
has been center of conflicts and wars between China
and India and India and Pakistan. Pakistan, India and
China claim different parts of the Kashmir region.
Ladakh region is a complex one with unusual terrain.
India claims Aksai Chin but it is under Chinese
control. China initially started building a road
through this area in 1956 linking Tibet to Xinjiang.
Mapping and surveying of this region has proved
historically difficult and immensely challenging
which makes it even more difficult to establish clear
boundaries.

India and China also engaged in a similar standoff for 73 days at Doklam, the other side of their disputed border
which was later peacefully resolved through diplomatic channels. Both sides claim each other’s territory. India
claims that China occupies some 38,000 square kilometers (15,000 square miles) in Aksai Chin while China
claims some (80,000 square kilometers (35,000 square miles) of Indian territory including state of Arunachal
Pradesh. In the Indian perception the LAC is 3488km long while Chinese believe its length is only 2000km.

The Flashpoints of North

The flashpoint of this dispute was 255km Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) road that connects Leh to
Karakoram Pass and goes along with border separating Ladakh from China’s Xinjiang province. This road which
took almost 2 decades to complete would allow India to rapidly deploy extra troops in case of a war in the
disputed area.

Another flashpoint is China National Highway 219 (G219) connecting Xinjiang to Tibet. It was built in 1957 with
a length of 179km and passes through disputed Aksai Chin plateau.

Lamas of Tibet and Sino-Indian Tensions

Relations have been strained by India’s hosting of exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama who fled from
Homeland in 1959 as a result of uprising against Chinese rule. He established a self-declared government in
Dharmsala, where thousands of Tibetans have settled.

Over the time both countries tried to settle their differences for maintenance of peace and tranquility along
LAC, but as of now they are nowhere near to settling their disputes despite regular meetings between 2
premiers.

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June 15 Faceoff
In a faceoff on June 15, Indian army clashed with People’s liberation Army (PLA) in Galwan Valley of eastern
Ladakh, more than 4000 meters above sea level. The Galwan valley is the highest ridge line and overlooks the
DSDBO road which China sees as a threat to highway’s security. China wants to counter India’s claims of Aksai
Chin plateau which can be done by controlling this area. India claims that China has been deploying troops
deeper into the contested area. Another reason is that China is constructing China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) in Gilgit Baltistan region which India has reservations about. China is investing heavily in
Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir building different infrastructure projects as part of BRI which is a huge
concern for India. China has also blocked India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group and Beijing has paid
only lip service to India’s joining of UNSC as a permanent member.

Conflict: Claims and Counterclaims

On June 15, Clash erupted at Pan gong TSO, a lake Trade Relations
straddling LAC in Ladakh. PLA tried to prevent Indian
troops from patrolling area between Finger 4 (the Chinese
claim line) and Finger 8 (the Indian claim line). Both sides
have been patrolling this area until recent clashes. Earlier
clashes also erupted at Sikkim in the eastern sector. PLA
erected Indian tents and building bunkers as well as
deployed more troops. Tensions along the LAC erupt from
time to time because of different perceptions of where
LAC runs. There were also serious clashes between both
sides at Depsang in 2013.

According to many reports China sent its soldiers 3-4 km

across the LAC and claimed the entire GALWAN valley as
its own. China sent many troops across LAC with heavy
infrastructure on the Indian side of the LAC.

Chinese Angle
Explanations circulating in media say that China wasn’t pleased with India’s annexation of Jammu and Kashmir
and Ladakh into its union territory on Aug 5, 2019 by removing its special status. China saw India’s recent road
construction work in the area as a change of the status quo and a challenge to its strategic position; China
dislikes India drawing closer to the United States and its allies in Asia.
Despite tensions trade relations between 2 countries largely remain intact. More than 100 Chinese companies
started their operations in India and its mobile companies occupy nearly 60 percent of India’s mobile market
while India also exports to China materials like Copper, cotton and gemstones.
Trade volume stood at US$95 billion in 2018 and $53 billion in first half of 2019 with $43 billion of Chinese
exports to India. The recent Clashes have forced India to react and it did so by banning some Chinese apps and
companies. Experts warned that this move will only backfire without denting Chinese economy. China has too
many customers for its exports but India will have to look towards west or Europe to meet its needs after
halting trade ties with China.

Normalization of Relations
As of now both countries have decided to withdraw their troops from the disputed region. But India has limited
options. It could further boycott Chinese products and investment from China including a likely ban on
Chinese companies’ involved in building 5G infrastructure. Despite tensions, both countries have been
cooperating on multiple global forums over the past decade. The BRICS bloc, Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank (AIIB), New Development Bank, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have all been areas of
cooperation despite security tensions.

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Indian Options
We may notice a shift in India’s foreign policy further pushing it away from China in US block as US wants to
counter Chinese influence in the region by increasing its defense and trade relations with India.
India is also worry of Beijing’s encirclement of subcontinent. Pakistan is a key ally of China and China has
growing stakes in Sri Lanka and Nepal and has made huge investments in Bangladesh in recent years. Today
China’s economy is 5 times bigger than that of India and it spends 4 times more on defense.

Way Forward
Both countries need to carefully choose their future actions in the region because any miscalculation from
either side could prove disastrous for the region where 3 nuclear powers are neighbors and involved in
conflicts.
China resolved border disputes with Russia and other Soviet successors in 1990s and 2000s through
diplomatic means but Himalayan territorial disputes are much more challenging and harder to resolve due to
complex terrain and geography.

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AFGHAN POWER SHARE
DEAL AND KABUL’S PO-
LITICAL IMPASSE
Introduction
Political Impasse Prevailed

2
Moving Forward
Power Sharing Deal
The Gridlock of Afghan Peace Deal
Stumbling Blocks
Bad Omen: Ghani on Roll
US Pressure for Intra-Afghan Dialogue
Shades of Gloom and Doom
Taliban Attacks Continue
Need of the Hour.

Zohaib Ahmed Anjum, PAS

Afghan Power share deal and Kabul’s political
impasse
Zohaib Ahmed Anjum, PAS

Introduction
Afghanistan witnessed unprecedented levels of political turmoil since Sept 28, 2019 when Afghan Election
Commission announced that President Ashraf Ghani has won the elections receiving more than 50% of the
vote. His opponent Abdullah Abdullah received more than 39 percent of the vote despite complaints of
widespread irregularities in the elections.

Political Impasse Prevailed

Both declared themselves President in different ceremonies in March 2020. There has been a political
deadlock since then and and efforts to break the impasse yielded no results. It prompted US president
Donald Trump to announce that US would stop $1 billion aid to Afghanistan if they didn’t solve their
differences.

Moving Forward
Many reports are indicating that pressure from US forced both parties to sign a power share deal so that
political deadlock could be resolved so that intra-Afghan dialogue could be commenced for laying out future
framework of Afghan government.

Power Sharing Deal

The deal would allow Ashraf Ghani to remain in power as President of
Afghanistan, while Abdullah would lead the Country’s National Reconciliation
High Council apart from having the power appoint half of the cabinet and
issue executive orders. He has been given the authority to deal with
Afghanistan’s peace process leading the government team in dialogue
with Taliban to reach an agreement.

Ghani also agreed to the formation of High Council of

Governance, which would allow major political leaders to advise
president to shape a united front as Afghanistan looks for an

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endgame with Taliban. A powerful Uzbek warlord and former vice president General Abdul Rashid Dostum
has been granted the rank of a marshal, the highest military rank in the country through a residential decree.

The Gridlock of Afghan Peace Deal

After a peace deal was signed between US and Taliban in February, which would allow US to reduce its troops
in Afghanistan from 14000 to 8500 initially and withdraw remaining troops gradually, Taliban guaranteed that
they wouldn’t attack US and NATO forces in Afghanistan and wouldn’t allow other militant groups to use
Afghan soil for attacks against US and its allies. The deal doesn’t bound Taliban from attacking Afghan forces
or civilians in Afghanistan which is a major setback for Kabul. After the deal was signed in February, Taliban
stopped to attack US and NATO forces but the intensity of attacks on Afghan forces and civilians has
drastically increased. The deal also requires Taliban to start intra-Afghan dialogue with Kabul government to
achieve long lasting peace and to decide about the future framework of governance in Afghanistan.

Stumbling Blocks
The political deadlock between Ghani and Abdullah was major hurdle thwarting intra-Afghan dialogue. Now
a power share deal has been signed, and time is ripe for commencement of intra-Afghan dialogue. This long
political dispute took a heavy toll on Afghanistan and coincided with rising violence by Taliban and the
spread of covid-19 pandemic. Before the deal was signed, Afghanistan was looming in chaos with an increase
in deadly attacks by militants and Taliban. The attacks on maternity ward in Kabul and a crowded funeral in
Nangarhar are hard reminders of the reality of Afghanistan. As Taliban denied attack on maternity hospital,
there are also speculations that other militant organizations like Islamic State (IS) is again gaining ground in
Afghanistan. This warrants that both side should evolve a consensus to deal with external threats collectively
as outside forces are trying to take advantage of already disastrous situation.

Bad Omen: Ghani on Roll

After the attack on maternity ward, Ashraf Ghani ordered Afghan
National Forces to start an offensive against Taliban. Taliban warned
that any offensive would be a declaration of war. Many experts
have pointed out that IS was behind the attack on maternity
hospital. If this volatile situation permeates, external elements
would be able to gain hold further widening differences between
Taliban and Kabul.
US Pressure for Intra-Afghan Dialogue
Under intense pressure from US, which was wary of the fact that
the machinations in Kabul might derail a peace deal signed
with Taliban in February, two sides came to an agreement.

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 The negotiations between Kabul and Taliban
were meant to start in early march but got
delayed due to political deadlock and Kabul’s
refusal to release Taliban prisoners before
the start of negotiations. US special peace
envoy Zalmay Khalilzad stressed the Afghan
leaders to stick to the commitments they had
already made, and “take seriously the resolve
of Afghan people, and the world, to finally see
an end to this conflict.”

Shades of Gloom and Doom

Afghanistan is a poor country. Despite billions of dollars in international aid, its poverty has jumped from 35%
in 2012 to 55% last year. Government in Kabul has been accused of widespread corruption by international
watchdogs. Covid-19 is also taking a heavy toll on Afghan economy, its people and an already fragile health
system.

Afghanistan has been in disarray since 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. After 9/11, US overthrew the
Taliban government and since then, the 18years of war in terror has wreaked havoc on Afghanistan. Scores of
militant organizations and militias have printed their foot on the Afghan soil. When the deal was signed on
Feb 29 between Taliban and US, it was hoped that this long war on terror is finally coming to an end. But
despite US and NATO withdrawal, will Afghanistan return to normalcy, the question remains and many
experts are already warning that the fate of Afghans after US withdrawal will be more complicated than as it
is of now.

Taliban Attacks Continue

As of now, Taliban and Kabul have started their negotiations and both sides have started releasing prisoners
of each other. Despite talks going on, Taliban haven’t stopped their attacks on Afghan security forces and
civilians, in fact their intensity has increased. Taliban blame Kabul government is not releasing prisoners as
per agreement while Ghani government says that they are too dangerous criminals involved in heinous
crimes and murders and they can’t be released without facing a trial or unless a permanent settlement is
reached. Kabul fears that these fighters will return to battlefield and rejoin Taliban.

Need of the Hour

If peace is to prevail in Afghanistan, all stakeholders must realize that their internal fissures would only lend
opportunities to outside brokers to foment troubles. Ghani’s government must take the lead in initiating
intra-Afghan dialogue. Taliban should realize too that they cannot win this war nor continue to fight forever.
This has to come to an end.

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 American
political decay
isn't caused by
Trump.
The blame rests
squarely

3
on the
US Congress

Abrar Ahmed, PAS

American political decay isn't caused by Trump.
The blame rests squarely on the US Congress

The checks and balances embedded within the three branches of government are falling in disuse
President Donald Trump’s barrage of attacks on the foundations of democratic governance- threatening
checks and balances, civil rights and liberties, and long-established political norms- is not the cause of
American political decay but its causal effect.

The United States is heralded as one of the oldest constitutional democracies in the
world. Despite suffering from its due share of setbacks, the U.S. political
system has managed to survive the test of time. It has survived a civil war,
two world wars and a cold war that put humanity closer to total
annihilation. Each time there has been a threat to its foundations, the
system has re-adjusted to achieve sustainable political equilibrium. It is
a highly complex political architecture which was ingeniously
designed by the Founding Fathers to ensure one thing- preventing
autocracy.

James Madison played a formative role in forging this political

architecture. Madison’s theory of organizing government was based on
the ideas of Enlightenment French philosopher Baron de Montesquieu
who theorized the concept of Separation of Powers in his magnum
opus, The Spirit of Laws (1784). The Madisonian model structures the
government into executive, legislative and judicial branches.
The separation of power was coupled with the
scheme of ‘checks and balances’ in which while
the three branches remain independent in
their existence, they are enjoined with
coordinated powers and have to cooperate
in order to govern. Such t r i p a r t i t e
classification of power ensures that one
branch wouldn’t be able to accumulate too
much power, and thus prevents the
imposition of tyranny. Moreover, Madison believed in a pluralistic democratic order in which political
sovereignty is divided into various factions and interest groups so that the state becomes neither majoritarian
nor oligarchic. Thus, he wrote in the Federalist No. 51, Federalist Papers:

“In the federal republic of the United States… all authority in it will be derived from and dependent on the
society, the society itself will be broken into so many parts, interests, and classes of citizens, that the rights of
individuals, or of the minority, will be in little danger from interested combinations of the majority.”

The Founding Fathers were also well aware of the dangers of demagogic autocrats, aspirational
proto-monarchs, the likes of Donald Trump, who could sway public opinion in their favor and win the White
House. They despised charismatic populists and created a political system meant to exhaust them. The
Madisonian constitutional system of government was exquisitely designed to handle the impulses of such
would-be tyrants. The power of this system was reflected in the temporary restraining order by Judge James

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Robert of the Western District of Washington that froze enforcement of Donald Trump’s immigrant and
refugee ban. Naturally, Trump was outraged but his administration complied with the ruling. The defeat of
the signature program of President of the most powerful country in the world by a district judge in
Washington state is indicative of the numerous veto points in the American System.

The system for all its genius, however, has been going
through decay. Francis Fukuyama in his seminal work,
“Political Order and Political Decay (2014)”, has argued
that American political system is decaying because of
two structural reasons: growing inequality and the
capture of American politics by well-organized interest
groups. Fukuyama’s thesis was published two years
before the election of Donald Trump but he identified
systematic forces which are responsible for
decomposition of American political institutions that
only came to surface after Trump’s victory. My thesis
extrapolates from Fukuyama’s work to analyze what
feeds Trump’s authoritarianism. Put simply, the
American political institutions and mechanisms are Judge James Robert of the Western District of Washington
either incompatible with changed circumstances or
they are increasingly failing to their job.

Take Electoral College for instance. The Founding Fathers detested populism, though not out of democratic
principles as we know them today. While they despised the British-style monarchy that they vehemently
fought against, their version of ‘life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness’ was exclusively reserved for white
property-owning men. They were doubtful of the common man’s ability to make correct political decisions.
Thus, they created the system of Electoral College to make sure that the electors could check the whims of
the masses and demagogues, and only qualified men could rise to the office of presidency. Paradoxically, it
was precisely the system of Electoral College that elevated a far-right populist to the highest political office
in the U.S. In a popular-voting framework, the U.S would’ve had its first female President instead. A classic
case of institutional conservatism.
The checks and balances embedded within the
three branches of government are also falling in
disuse. While Judiciary wields immense authority,
it is actually legislature that has the most power to
check Trump’s populist whims. The president has
little capacity to do anything without the
Congress. From raising money to declaring war to
staffing his own government, the president is
overwhelmingly dependent on Congress’s express
permission. Congress has the power to force
Trump to release his tax returns or to turn his
assets over to a blind trust. They could’ve rejected
the nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme
Court- one of the most conservative U.S. justices.
They can impeach Trump for the obstruction of
justice for firing former-FBI Director James
Comey. The Congress can do all these things but
they won’t. In amassing unprecedented power and
breaking political norms, Trump is doing exactly
what the Founders would have expected.

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The blame rests squarely on Congress which has
been subject to greatest political decay. This was
something where the framers failed to visualize the
future American political trajectory. The Madisonian
constitutional system was created on an
unwarranted faith that the plurality of interests
within the country would resist the creation of
organized political parties. This, of course, did not
happen.

The checks and balances operate under the

assumption that each branch would compete for its
own authority and exert its independent influence
and the natural by-product of this setting would be
a balance of power among the branches. This
framework has been undermined due to the
presence of organized and ideologically-driven
political parties which are competing across the
the three branches of government. For instance,
after the death of Supreme Court Justice
Antonin Scalia, President Obama nominated
Merrick Garland for the vacant position.

The Republican-controlled Senate, however,

filibustered Garland’s nomination. Later,
when democrats tried to do the same Trump’s
nomination of Neil Gorsuch, the Republicans
resorted to the ‘nuclear option’- a
parliamentary procedure which allows the U.S.
Senate to override a precedent or rule by a simple
majority of 51 votes rather than by a supermajority
of 60 votes. They criticized filibuster as an
unnecessary obstructionism on part of Democratic
Senators.

This reflects the extent to which partisanship has

been institutionalised in American political
culture. Congressional members today are
less interested in protecting the
authority of their institution than in toeing
the party line. Consequently, Trump is
increasingly accumulating more power, dismantling
the centrist schemes of Obama administration, and
abusing power without the fear of impeachment.
President Donald Trump’s barrage of attacks on the
foundations of democratic governance- threatening
checks and balances, civil rights and liberties, and
long-established political norms- is not the cause of
American political decay but its causal effect.
Just like in the past, the current
equilibrium in the decayed American
political system can only be knocked off by
either a strong external shock or a
large-scale reform coalition in order to
make real policy reform possible. Till then,
the world’s oldest constitutional
democracy would continue to make a
mockery of democratic norms.

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CHINA-IRAN STRATEGIC NEXUS:
IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

Abdul Samad 4
China-Iran strategic nexus: Implications
for Pakistan
China and Iran are reportedly mulling over striking a strategic-cum-economic deal worth $400 billion. The
yet-to-conclude deal is reportedly dropping India out of the key rail and energy projects signed four years
ago. Earlier, India signed a deal with Iran in the presence of the Afghan president four years ago in 2016,
‘according to which India was expected of investing $1.6 billion in a railroad project from Chabahar to
Zahidain for linking to Afghanistan and Turkmenistan and then to Europe’( Najmuddin A.Sheikh). India was
also expected of investing approximately $6 billion in various energy projects. Answering the question about
the reported ousting of India from these key projects, an Iranian official came up with the words that Iran did
not like a partner which looked for a third party’s permission before taking any step (Dawn). Adding to this,
delay in payment for the proposed projects was another factor behind the dragging of India out of these key
projects. The Indian presence in Iran was a key challenge for Pakistan vis-a-vis its relations with Iran, its
security, economic and regional interests. In the light of these issues, among others, the reported China- Iran
strategic deal may prove a blessing in disguise for Pakistan.

Pakistan shares its south western border with Iran. Both countries are the key members of ECO, OIC. Despite
of all these factors, both countries observed relations of rise and fall. The main lacuna in their relations is the
trust deficit. Pakistan has been trying to strike a balanced posture between the two key Muslim countries:
Iran and KSA. However, it is a naked fact that it fails somewhere in devising such a balanced approach on dint
of its domestic compulsions. Pakistan inherited two major problems from the partition: security and
paralyzed economy. Unfortunately, the latter was not made the top-most priority which is why it is still
portraying the same pathetic picture. In order to keep its dysfunctional economy alive, Pakistan has been
approaching the foreign countries and international monetary regulating bodies for the last few decades. The
lenders via their bailouts enjoy an undeniable say in the domestic and foreign policy formulation of this
borrowed country. It was this reason that Pakistan sided with KSA-led bloc while denying to attend the KL
Summit held in last December. It is one of the key factors behind the trust deficit in the relationship of Iran
and Pakistan. Another reason of catering the trust deficit is the vague approach of Pakistan towards Iran-US
wrestling. This trust deficit may be over filled by the reported China-Iran strategic deal via exploiting the
Chinese partnership with Pakistan and now with Iran.

Pakistan is facing a plethora of security challenges among which the Baluch factor remains dominant. This
very phenomenon has been operating for decades garnered by multiple reasons: political and economic
deprivation, etc. Many of the terrorist activities in this part of the country are time and again linked with the

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cross-border operators entering from Iran. The same concern is being tabled by Iran In the wake of the
terrorist activities launched on its soil. China’s presence and its ties with Iran will improve the security
situation since peaceful Baluchistan is in the best favor of CPEC. Moreover, peaceful region is vital for BRI and
Chinese soft power expansion. Therefore, a normalization in this disturbed part of the country may take
place with the Chinese positive role.

The reported dropout of India from the key projects means the reduction in Indian influence in Iran. India’s
presence in Iran has been a key challenge for Pakistan since it has been affecting the security and strategic
interests of Pakistan since long. The Baluch insurgency is believed to be catered by external factors mainly
India. The Chabahar port is perceived to be an alternative to Gwadar by India in order to link with CARs
among others. The Indian presence in Iran and Afghanistan seems to be a part of India’s ambition to encircle
Pakistan. Therefore, the reported deal may dilute the Indian_ posed risks for Pakistan on its western border.

The said deal will also bring both Iran and Pakistan
to the point where their strategic and economic
interests would converge. Iran may take interests in
CPEC which would provide security to the projects.
Iran's participation in CPEC would help Pakistan in
dealing with its power shortage conundrum. China
is also ambitious of ensuring a safe haven to CPEC
in Pakistan and to BRI in the region. This tripartite
convergence of interests will open a new chapter of
regional cooperation. Apart from all these, the three
countries have their stakes in the Heart of Asia:
Afghanistan. All of them are playing their key role in
ensuring an enduring peace in Afghanistan which is
in the best favor of them. Pakistan wants a peaceful
Afghanistan to cater its security-cum-economic
and strategic interests; for China, a peaceful
Afghanistan is vital for its security and economic
issues; Iran almost shares the same interests along
with its care for the Shia population in Afghanistan
and its anti-US posture. This convergence of their
interests in the shape of a peaceful Afghanistan
might be catered as a result of the cooperation
which would likely be encouraged as a result of the
reported deal.
However, Pakistan may face one of the toughest
challenges to its foreign policy in the form of
standing neutral in the US-Iran and US-China
tensions. Pakistan’s economic, Kashmir and FATF
factors are looking for US’ support which might be
curtailed in case of any tilt in Pakistan’s posture
towards either of the US' arch rivals.
In a nutshell, the reported China-Iran strategic deal
will bring some advantages for Pakistan
notwithstanding the fact that Pakistan is not the
signatory of the deal. Pakistan may take advantage
of this deal while playing the Chinese card. The
strategic deal will help both Pakistan and Iran in
filling the trust deficit, improving their ties,
launching joint efforts in addition to their joint
Rapid Reaction Force initiative to deal with their
combined security issues. It will relieve Pakistan of
Indian suspected presence in Iran. The multibillion
CPEC project would find a safe environment in
Baluchistan to a considerable extent.
The Writer has done his MA in English literature and
Linguistics from NUML Islamabad, Pakistan.

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TRUMP’S ISRAEL-PALESTINE
PEACE PLAN: THE FARCE, THE
FRAUD AND THE FURY

Compiled by Kamil Mushtaq, Student Counselor @nearpeer.org 5

Trump’s
Israel-Palestine peace
plan: The farce, the
fraud and the fury
“The real threat to peace is if the plan succeeds”

President Donald Trump claims his peace plan for

Israel and Palestine will prove to be a triumph that
will last for the next 80 years. But it’s unclear
whether it will be viable for even 80 minutes. That’s
because most analysts believe the deal — the
arriving there grew, with many fleeing from
political portion of which was finally released — is
persecution in Europe and seeking a homeland after
dead on arrival.
the Holocaust of WWII. Violence between Jews and
Arabs, and against British rule, also grew.
“It’s a total shit-show,” a former senior White House
official familiar with the peace plan process told
In 1947, the UN voted for Palestine to be split into
media.
separate Jewish and Arab states, with Jerusalem
becoming an international city. That plan was
In roughly 50 pages, the administration’s political
accepted by Jewish leaders but rejected by the Arab
strategy — masterminded by Trump son-in-law and
side and never implemented. The creation of Israel
senior adviser Jared Kushner — aims to solve the
and the 'Catastrophe'
intractable problems that have stymied both
Democratic and Republican administrations for
In 1948, unable to solve the problem, British rulers
decades. It defines the future of Israeli settlements,
left and Jewish leaders declared the creation of the
how Palestinians might conditionally form a state,
state of Israel. Many Palestinians objected and a war
and America’s view of Israel’s myriad security
followed. Troops from neighbouring Arab countries
concerns. What it doesn’t do is provide a “right of
invaded. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fled
return” for displaced Palestinians to their ancestral
or were forced out of their homes in what they call
homes in Israel, allow for a sovereign state of
Al Nakba, or the "Catastrophe".
Palestine to form a military that it could use to
threaten Israel (or to defend itself against Israel), or
By the time the fighting ended in a ceasefire the
give Palestinians any meaningful part of Jerusalem
following year, Israel controlled most of the
as its capital. In fact, it essentially ignores all of the
territory. Jordan occupied land which became
Palestinians’ key desires, as the plan was drafted
known as the West Bank, and Egypt occupied Gaza.
with no input from Palestinian leaders.
Jerusalem was divided between Israeli forces in the
West, and Jordanian forces in the East. Because
A 100-year-old issue there was never a peace agreement - each side
blamed the other - there were more wars and
Britain took control of the area known as Palestine fighting in the decades which followed.
after the ruler of that part of the Middle East, the
Ottoman Empire, was defeated in WW1. The land In another war in 1967, Israel occupied East
was inhabited by a Jewish minority and Arab Jerusalem and the West Bank, as well as most of the
majority. Tensions between the two peoples grew Syrian Golan Heights, and Gaza and the Egyptian
when the international community gave Britain the Sinai peninsula. Most Palestinian refugees and their
task of establishing a "national home" in Palestine descendants live in Gaza and the West Bank, as well
for Jewish people. For Jews, it was their ancestral as in neighbouring Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.
home, but Palestinian Arabs also claimed the land Neither they nor their descendants have been
and opposed the move. allowed by Israel to return to their homes - Israel
says this would overwhelm the country and
Between the 1920s and 40s, the number of Jews threaten its existence as a Jewish state.

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Israel still occupies the West Bank, and although it
pulled out of Gaza the UN still regards that piece of
land as part of occupied territory. Israel claims the
whole of Jerusalem as its capital, while the
Palestinians claim East Jerusalem as the capital of a
future Palestinian state. Only the US recognises
Israel's claim to the whole of the city. In the past 50
years Israel has built settlements in these areas,
where more than 600,000 Jews now live.
Palestinians say these are illegal under international
law and are obstacles to peace, but Israel denies
this.
What are the main
problems?
There are a number of issues which Israel and the
Palestinians cannot agree on. These include what
should happen to Palestinian refugees, whether
Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank
should stay or be removed, whether the two sides
should share Jerusalem, and - perhaps most tricky
of all - whether a Palestinian state should be
created alongside Israel.
Peace talks have been taking place on and off for
more than 25 years, but so far have not solved the
conflict.
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What the new peace plan
actually says:
There’s a lot to this document, but there are four
major elements of the new political proposal in
particular you need to know about:
1) Israel keeps the vast majority of Jerusalem as its
sovereign capital;
2) Palestinians get no right of return
3) It redraws borders mainly between Israel and the
West Banks.
4) It doesn’t allow for Palestine to create a fighting
force to defend itself.
Jerusalem
First, Israel gets the entirety of an undivided
Jerusalem as its capital. A future state of Palestine
would get a few neighborhoods in far eastern
Jerusalem. That’s a major decision. For the first 20
years of Israel’s existence, Jerusalem was divided.
Israel controlled the parts of Jerusalem and its
suburbs inside the red dotted line on this map,
while Jordan controlled everything outside of it
(blue dotted lines separate Jerusalem proper from
suburbs):

Jordan controlled the Temple Mount, a hill in the
map’s brown splotch. The hill hosts the Western
Wall, a retaining wall of an ancient Jewish temple
and one of Judaism’s holiest sites, and two of Islam’s
most important landmarks, the al-Aqsa Mosque and
the Dome of the Rock. Israeli Jews weren’t allowed
to pray in the area while Jordan controlled it.
During the 1967 war, Israel took control of East
Jerusalem.
Israel calls Jerusalem its undivided capital today, but
few countries recognize it as such. UN Security
Council Resolution 478 condemns Israel’s decision
to annex East Jerusalem as a violation of
international law and calls for a compromise
solution.
So for the Trump administration to basically say,
“Sorry, all of Jerusalem belongs to Israel,” is a gutsy
move that will make Israel’s leaders happy but doom
any chance of bringing the Palestinians on board.
No “right of return” for
Palestinian refugees
The plan explicitly states that there shall be no
“right to return” for the millions of Palestinians
forced out of their ancestral homes during the
formation of the Israeli state.
The 1948 war uprooted 700,000 Palestinians from
their homes, creating a refugee crisis that is still not
resolved. Palestinians call this mass eviction the
Nakba — Arabic for “catastrophe” — and its legacy
remains one of the most intractable issues in
ongoing peace negotiations.
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Today, there are more than 7 million Palestinian
refugees, defined as people displaced in 1948 and
their descendants. A core Palestinian demand in
peace negotiations is some kind of justice for these
refugees, most commonly in the form of the “right
of return” to the homes their families abandoned at
the time.
Israel can’t accept the right of return without
abandoning either its Jewish or democratic identity.
Adding 7 million Arabs to Israel’s population would
make Jews a minority; Israel’s total population is
about 8 million, a number that includes the 1.5
million Arabs already there. So Israelis refuse to
even consider including the right to return in any
final status deal — and now, it seems, the Americans
agree with that view.
The plan lays out three options for these refugees:
1. Absorption into the State of Palestine (subject to
the limitations provided below);
2. Local integration in current host countries
(subject to those countries consent); or
3. The acceptance of 5,000 refugees each year, for
up to ten years (50,000 total refugees), in
individual Organization of Islamic Cooperation
member countries who agree to participate in
Palestinian refugee resettlement (subject to those
individual countries’ agreement).
Redrawing of borders
The proposal redraws borders to effectively give
Israel more land in the Palestinian-controlled West
Bank, in exchange for “land swaps” that include two
areas in the Negev Desert.
As illustrated, the map gives Israel a large chunk of
the West Bank where there are currently a number
of Israeli settlements. These settlements in the
Israeli-occupied Palestinian territory are currently
illegal under international law and are not
considered part of Israel proper. This plan would
change that by granting Israel the big section of
land they’re built on. The map also shows that Israel
would take control of the Jordan River Valley. That’s
a promise Netanyahu made to his people last
September, and it’s highly controversial.
The Jordan Valley runs along the east edge of the

West Bank, the heavily Palestinian-populated area
taken by Israel in the 1967 war, marking its
boundary with neighboring Jordan. It contains both
Palestinian population centers, like the city of
Jericho, and a number of Israeli settlements.
The most credible argument for Israel formally
seizing control of this land is essentially strategic.
Israel has faced invasions from Jordan before, and
an IDF military presence in the Jordan Valley is
arguably vital to protecting Israel from a
hypothetical future invasion.
However, there is no imminent risk of such an
invasion to justify an immediate land grab. And
there are lots of arrangements by which Israel could
protect legitimate security interests in the Jordan
Valley without outright seizing the land. It could
station some troops there with permission from a
Palestinian state, for example. Which means the
plan looks simply like a big land grab that would also
ruin any hope of a future Palestinian state.
A permanently demilitarized
state of Palestine
Finally, the plan calls for a future state of Palestine
to basically never be able to secure itself. “The State
of Palestine will not have the right to forge military,
intelligence or security agreements with any state
or organization that adversely affect the State of
Israel’s security, as determined by the State of
Israel,” the document reads. “The State of Palestine
will not be able to develop military or paramilitary
capabilities inside or outside of the State of
Palestine.”
In other words, a future Palestinian state would not
be able to create armed forces to protect itself or
fight others. This might seem prudent for Israel’s
security, but it would basically leave the state of
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Palestine at the mercy of Israel’s strong military,
giving Israel a greater ability to bully its future
neighbor.
There’s an economic
component to the peace
plan too
This is all supposed to add to the economic portion
of the peace plan the administration released last
June. Dubbed “Peace to Prosperity,” the economic
plan was billed as “a vision to empower the
Palestinian people to build a prosperous and vibrant
Palestinian society.” The administration claimed it
had “the potential to facilitate more than $50 billion
in new investment over ten years.”
But critics slammed the proposal, likening it to a
“real estate brochure” — complete with glossy
promotional photos from Palestinian aid programs
that the Trump administration has cut funding for.
“It’s a total Shit-show”
Crucially, the plan lacked any details about a
political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
That was by design: Kushner decided to put out the
economic half before releasing the political half,
saying that releasing the economic bit was “less
controversial.” But without that second political
half, the economic proposal was essentially
meaningless.
It’s hard to imagine anyone investing billions of
dollars in big infrastructure and transportation
projects for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza
while the Israeli government continues to annex
more and more territory in the former and regularly
bombs the latter. The question now is if the political
portion satisfies any of those concerns, but experts
almost unanimously say that it won’t. No plan was
ever going to be perfect. Past administrations,
Republican and Democrat, failed to realize a peace
deal. Trump’s plan was thus always likely to join
theirs on the trash heap of diplomatic history.
Compiled by Kamil Mushtaq, Student Counselor
@nearpeer.org
National
GENDER BASED
VIOLENCE IN
PAKISTAN

twitter@MahamBabar 1
Gender Based Violence in Pakistan
A patriarchal society bestows great powers to
men, thereby, creating an imbalance which not
only has been proved to be denigrating but also
fatal for women. The issue of domestic violence
against women is a consequence of the
patriarchal society which is deeply rooted and
nourished by the culture. In countries like
Pakistan, religion is also used and maneuvered to
gain benefits by men politically and socially.
Women are then left with little bargaining power
and ought to bow down to the horrendous norms
of the society. Such norms are prevalent among
every segment, class and age group of the society.

With the rising cases of domestic violence in

Pakistan, women are becoming increasingly
vulnerable and marginalized. Women are tortured
physically, psychologically, sexually and verbally.
The most common and traditional practices are
honor killing (karo kari), rape, sexual assault,
domestic violence,

burning, genital mutilation, forced marriages, under age marriages, Walwar (Bride price), Swara/Vani (woman
The writer is a freelance contributor. Find her on twitter @MahamBabar_as blood price), economic abuse
and threats. In Pakistan, a third of the criminal offences are of gender- based violence. According to a UN
study, “Home is declared the most dangerous place for women.” The post Covid-19 lockdown has brought to
fore a spike in cases.

The existing socio-cultural system in Pakistan consider women as a sign of honor by parents, bothers and in
laws. This cultural belief is top-coated with religion to present it as an untenable contention. Many
madrassas and clerics present women as inferior and tend to objectify them while addressing to their pupils
and followers. The true teachings of Islam regarding the status of women are kept away, and in a country like
Pakistan where illiteracy rate is high and education is not readily accessible, people often hinge on madrassa
education. As violence breeds violence, the young one in the family often imitate and learn from the environs
they are raised in. Men learn it from their fathers and women inherit complacency, compromise and
disposition to tolerate the mindful behavior of men towards them.

The chain of patriarchy has grappled and imposed a plethora of restrictions on women. They are not allowed
to avail the very basic rights of education, equality before law, freedom of expression, decision making and
financial independence. Among many classes of society these basic rights are considered as an act of
immorality, westernization of society and against the tenets of Islam. There is also a common perception that
feminism is overachieved. Particularly in urban areas where more women are gaining education, getting
aware about their just rights and are being more vocal about it.

In Pakistan, women movements like “Aurat march” are heavily censured and suffer backlash owing to the
rhetoric that women in urban areas are now at par and such movements must extend to rural areas. But the
question is how women in rural areas can raise their voice in the compartmentalized and restricted
environment, when the women in urbanized areas are noosed with patriarchal slogans –“Mard march” – and
interpretations? The notion of ‘being aware and vocal of rights’ is correlated with ‘feminism overachieved and
even overriding men’. This forms as the most dangerous myth that maligns the cause of feminism. The reality

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lies far from this rhetoric. It lies in delayed justice system, striding out legislations and depriving the
vulnerable of their lawful rights.

The Status of women violence legislation in Pakistan is in shambles. The Sindh Assembly passed a law in 2013
that defines domestic violence broadly to include physical, psychological, sexual, and economic abuse. It
covers a range of domestic relationships; and specifically criminalizes the practice. However, in 2019, the
Supreme Court was informed by Ombudsman of Sindh province that out of 350 cases, action was taken in
just 8 cases. While commentators applaud and highlight successes of such laws, the transparency remains a
genuine concern as information relating to cases are taken down.

In Balochistan and Punjab a similar law was passed in 2014 and 2016 respectively, that provides civil remedies
such as protection/residence orders but it fails to criminalize domestic violence. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Assembly also tabled one such bill to the Council of Islamic Ideology, which was rejected by Council of
Islamic Ideology. CII regarded the bill to be ‘un-Islamic’. The constitutional body then came up with its own
women protection bill ignoring the female member in panel. The bill proposed the right of the husband to
‘lightly beat’ his wife. Dr Samina Qazi (female member of CII) said: “Violence against women is increasing due
to unawareness of Islamic values.” The exclusion of women from decision making regarding laws meant for
protection of women represent another injustice and discrimination of the male dominated society. The
legislative system is in complete disarray and is also lacking the national unity to eliminate and criminalize
this act.

In Pakistan, only 2 % of the cases related to Gender based violence are reported by women. Women choose
to suffer in silence despite a risk to their well-being. According to a research by Anderson et al. women fear
of reporting because they believe that it may bring dishonor to the family, exacerbate the problem and may
lead to divorce and loss of their children. The family members and the society label it as a private matter that
doesn’t require any outside interference. It is reported that police o0fficials are often reluctant to register
FIRs and discourage from any proceedings.

“Whom should we tell? When our parents marry us, they tell us that for them we are dead and don’t exist
anymore. Neither father nor brother listen to us or help.” - (Women’s focus group, Punjab)

It depicts the dismal picture of the society, wherein women are under immense psychological pressure and
remain impotent to the forces of patriarchal values. Many even resort to extreme steps, like suicide. If
women are not brought to justice and not given protection under the law then such laws are worthless as
they bring no relief. Even if women roam around with the law book hanging down their neck, it can’t protect
unless what’s inscribed is implemented in letter and spirit.

“It’s of no use because the police would call our men and they would bribe the police to remove the case
and then would taunt and abuse us for the rest of our life.” - (Women’s focus group, Punjab)

Therefore, all those barriers that hinders women to access justice must be identified and quashed to provide
relief and protection to women, children and other vulnerable citizens. It requires a strong political will to
eliminate such inequalities and grievances from the society. There exists a strong need to formulate
powerful laws and implement the existing laws, indiscriminately. Justice must be administered at all levels in
the society. In addition, the police force must be sensitized and made aware of the policies relating to
domestic violence — their response mechanism and the way of delivery. It is very crucial to set all the SOPs
relating to the handling of victims of domestic violence. Women police as well as the male staff should be
trained to handle such cases. Mostly, women belonging to backward areas suffer from such atrocities.
Therefore, their reservations regarding privacy must be kept intact. Emergency shelters and emotional
counselling are also necessary steps to provide immediate assistance. Strong resolve and a well-organized
system backed by powerful policies can only eliminate the downtrodden society.

The writer is a freelance contributor. Find her on twitter @MahamBabar_

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PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY ONE
YEAR AFTER THE IMF
BAILOUT

written by Shahroo Malik, Research Associate at

Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad ISSI. 2
PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY ONE YEAR AFTER THE
IMF BAILOUT
In July 2019, Pakistan started its macroeconomic adjustments under the IMF bailout program of USD $6
billion over three years to tackle its twin (current account and fiscal) deficit problem. In the past year, strict
austerity measures attached to the IMF bailout package have contributed to contractions in the
manufacturing industry, increasing unemployment, and inflation rising into the double digits. The spread of
coronavirus has further delayed the recovery prospects of an ailing economy and emphasized gaps in the
country’s health sector. In these challenging times instead of prioritizing government spending on the health
sector and providing economic relief, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government’s recently released
budget has set ambitious revenue targets and made cuts in the government expenditure to comply with the
IMF’s austerity measures, which is likely to do little to alleviate economic pressures for the majority of
Pakistan’s population.

The Economic Impact of the IMF Bailout

The severe austerity measures such as heavy taxation, rupee devaluation, and reduced government
expenditure taken under the IMF program have helped reduce Pakistan’s current account and fiscal deficit
but at a heavy cost of diminished economic growth. From July 2019 to March 2020, Pakistan’s current
account deficit decreased by 73 percent to USD $2.8 billion, however this was mainly due to the massive
depreciation of the rupee which led to a fall in import demand and a meager increase in exports—reducing
the trade deficit by 31 percent. As expected, however, the GDP growth rate was projected at 2.4 percent for
2020 even before COVID-19 hit the country. Although in February 2020, Pakistan’s exports had shown a 3.6
percent growth when compared to the previous year, this sharply declined after COVID-19. Although the
fiscal deficit fell from 5 percent to 3.8 percent of the GDP from
July 2019 to March 2020, the government failed to meet the revenue targets for the fiscal year 2020 and
public debt has increased to 88 percent of GDP.

Instead of prioritizing government spending on the health sector and providing economic relief, the PTI
government’s recently released budget has set ambitious revenue targets and made cuts in the
government expenditure to comply with the IMF’s austerity measures, which is likely to do little to
alleviate economic pressures for the majority of Pakistan’s population.

The policies taken by the PTI government under the IMF bailout program such as increasing interest
rates, raising taxes, and rupee depreciation have also had a substantial negative impact on the business
community and the public. Following the IMF conditions, in order to generate revenue to reduce the fiscal
deficit, the government increased taxes and energy prices resulting in higher inflation. In January, the
State Bank of Pakistan increased interest rates to 13.25 percent with an aim of bringing inflation down,
however, this increased the cost of borrowing for investors. The large-scale manufacturing sector,
especially textile, petroleum and automobile manufacturing were hit hard by increased production costs,
interest rates, and taxes, and the sector declined by 5.4 percent from July 2019 to March 2020. By January
2020, inflation had increased to 14.6 percent mainly due to a surge in food prices putting a greater
economic pressure on the poor and working class. As Pakistan entered the new year, COVID-19 ultimately
exacerbated many of the economic challenges it was already facing.

Pakistan’s Economy After COVID-19

As countries across the world-imposed lockdowns and global economic activity came to a halt, Pakistan’s
GDP shrank by nearly USD $18 billion and per capita income fell by USD $100 in Fiscal Year 2019-20. Areas
that had been showing some positive trends in 2019, such as remittances and a slight growth in exports, fell
sharply with COVID-19. While remittances—funds send back to Pakistan by citizens working

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abroad—increased by 2.7 percent from July 2019 to May 2020 mainly due to the government’s increased
efforts under the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to encourage sending funds through proper channels, by
May 2020 remittances were nearly 20 percent less than they had been in May of the previous year. Pakistan’s
exports, meanwhile, fell by 54.2 percent when comparing April 2019 to April 2020. COVID-19 has also caused
supply side disruptions, especially for industries that rely heavily on imported goods. Interest rates that had
been raised as part of the IMF package were reduced by 5.25 percent to tackle with the economic shocks due
to coronavirus, however, this led to a flight in “hot money”—short-term investments between markets meant
to make a profit on interest or exchange rates—as foreign investors pulled out more than USD $1.28 billion in
March.

Already facing high levels of unemployment, COVID-19 further pushed the masses below the poverty line as
millions face fears of job loss. The manufacturing sector that was barely surviving due to high production
costs and taxes in the post-IMF bailout package has faced new challenges under COVID-19 lockdowns.
Although the drop in international oil prices may have eased some of the inflationary pressure, however,
instead of giving relief to the broader population the PTI government has increased oil prices to generate
revenue, which was linked to past rises in inflation. Thus far, the PTI government has responded to the
growing insecurity among Pakistan’s population by announcing a USD $7.5 billion economic relief in March of
this year which also includes a stimulus package to extend the government’s already existing social safety
net, Ehsaas, by providing financial assistance to poor households under the newly launched Ehsaas
Emergency Cash program in order to deal with the socio-economic impact of COVID-19.

However, in Pakistan’s recent budget, only USD $151 million has been allocated to health. As the number of
COVID-19 cases in Pakistan has crossed 240,000 with more than 5,000 deaths, there is an immense pressure
on Pakistan’s poor and overburdened health infrastructure as hospitals are already working at full capacity
and dealing with limited medical equipment such as ventilators and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).
COVID-19 has also reversed the development gains achieved in the last decade. The government needs to not
only allocate funds to immediate short term cash transfer programs but also pay attention to improving the
health infrastructure and creating job opportunities in order to tackle the longer-term socioeconomic impact
of COVID-19.

Pakistan’s Budget and Future Economic Outlook

According to the IMF’s projections, Pakistan’s economy could experience a negative GDP growth rate of 1.5
percent in Fiscal Year 2020. Unemployment is also expected to rapidly increase with projections of 6.65
million people becoming unemployed in this fiscal year, with the approximately 27.3 million workers working
in Pakistan’s informal sector among those most at risk for losing their source of income. Migrants who lost
their jobs in host countries are also now returning to Pakistan, further increasing the unemployment rate and
adding pressure to the labor market. Prime Minister Imran Khan has been successful in getting debt relief of
around USD 2 billions; however, it needs to be considered that the debt payment has not been waived, but
delayed to be paid at a later date.

According to the IMF’s projections, Pakistan’s economy could experience a negative GDP
growth rate of 1.5 percent in Fiscal Year 2020.

The recent budget announced by the government further does not provide relief to the general public. The
PTI government has set ambitious targets amidst a pandemic including a target of 2.1 percent GDP growth
and USD $30.22 billion revenue collection—25 percent more than was collected last year. The revenue targets
seem unrealistic as economic activity and demand has contracted substantially due to the pandemic and as
the government has given tax relief to the real estate and the construction sector in an effort to create jobs
for daily wage earners. A significant portion (41 percent) of the budget has been allocated to debt servicing.
Despite the ongoing economic crunch and a pandemic, defense expenditure has been increased by 11.8
percent. The federal development budget, however, has been cut to USD $3.94 billion from USD $4.2 billion,

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which is not enough to tackle the issue of growing unemployment in the country. Although the PTI has a
number of constraints including external debts and the current economic crisis, the cuts to the development
budget are sure to be felt as Pakistan continues to face the repercussions of the global pandemic.
In the coming months, the current account and fiscal deficits are likely to continue increasing as exports and
remittances fall and less revenue is generated due to slowed economic activity. The decrease in household
incomes from growing unemployment, high inflation, and lower remittances will further reduce the
aggregate demand necessary for bringing an economy out of a recession by stimulating economic activity.
While the government has been significantly constrained with an inherited balance-of-payments crisis, the
new budget indicates a missed opportunity to reprioritize and focus on health and development as the
country suffers from the economic costs of COVID-19.

Note: The article is taken from South Asian voices and is written by Shahroo Malik, Research Associate at
Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad ISSI.

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COMBATING SOCIO-ECONOMIC
IMPACTS OF COVID-19 BY PAKISTAN:
SUCCESS OR FAILURE?

Adil Riaz Gondal

3
Combating Socio-economic impacts of
COVID-19 by Pakistan: Success or failure?
Adil Riaz Gondal

Human race has eventually developed and advanced themselves in various fields to counter natural
disasters since its creation, but the ongoing year of 2020 has tested against all such advancements
resulting even in failure of world super powers equipped with most modern and sophisticated healthcare
systems to combat the COVID-19 outbreak.

Stretching back the strings of history to the era of pre-historic epidemic; Circa in 3000 B.C, such plagues,
epidemics and pandemics have ravaged humanity throughout which often changed their course of history.
Human race has eventually developed and advanced themselves in various fields to counter those natural
disasters since then, but the ongoing year of 2020 has tested against all such advancements resulting even in
failure of world super powers equipped with most modern and sophisticated healthcare systems to combat
the COVID-19 outbreak. The world that has started shaping their new war-fronts in economic zones, this
pandemic has compelled the countries to shift their policies towards making their economic and social
system more resilient along with securing their masses with effective health strategies in health sector.
Pakistan and other under-developed countries were at brunt of lethal consequences of this pandemic since
its outbreak.

In the COVID-19 phase and post-COVID phase, a number of socio-economic impacts can be assessed
considering Pakistan in specific. Firstly, it would affect the economic growth of Pakistan with the negative
trend expected in real GDP by almost three percent. According to Asian Development Bank (ADB), Pakistan
economy will lose US $16 million in the best case scenario while US $61 million in the worst case scenario.
This exact amount would purely depend upon the limited number of fiscal buffers that Pakistan economy has
to combat this pandemic situation. Secondly, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) affirmed 20 percent decline
in exports of Pakistan. This would also affect the textile exports of Pakistan which depends upon the imports
of raw materials and pandemic has halted that as well. Thirdly, the failure to achieve the tax target of Rs. 5.5
trillion would fall short of Rs. 1.6 trillion according to International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Due to little fiscal space and few economic buffers, it has been estimated by Pakistan Institute of
Development Economics (PIDE) that the growth in industrial sector will contract by 14-22 percent, service
sector by 11-15 percent, Large Scale Manufacturer that makes 80% total manufactures by 3 percent and
petroleum sector by 14 percent in the FY20. Same has been affirmed by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
On the other account, the financial debt of Pakistan was already more than the net revenue of federal
government in FY19 and this situation will add up to the difficulties of government by increase of total burden
from Rs. 30 trillion to Rs. 41 trillion in FY20 that would be 85.4 percent of total GDP. However, it has also
helped Pakistan in taking relief of US $4 billion from IMF, ADB and World Bank. On the similar account, the
tourism sector has also been affected. According to World Tourism & Travel Council’s Annual Report 2019,

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there was 5.8 percent increase in tourism generating Rs. 9.8 billion making 7.4 percent of GDP with 4 million
jobs and inviting 1.2 million tourists in Pakistan the same year.

At the individual level, daily wage workers, urban slum dwellers, farmers and small enterprise owners
suffered the most from the economic impacts of this outbreak. With increase in poverty level to 40 percent,
56 percent of total workforce of Pakistan falls under the category of vulnerable employment. Informal sector
forming 72 percent and daily wage workers forming 5 percent of workforce are at the surge of recession
during this pandemic. Similarly, the impact of agriculture sector is evident from the disruption in transport,
logistics and Labor which is assessed by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) to be 80
percent. Moreover, the micro-level enterprises and micro-level financing would be affected accordingly.

Furthermore, the pandemic has not only affected the movements across the borders but also within the
smaller communities. Social distancing and techniques of working from home which includes the policy of
online education has added to the frequency of anxiety and depression. Moreover, the economic drastic
impacts in the form of poverty, unemployment and inflation is adding to the incidents of domestic violence
as well. Moreover, sports have been always regarded as the source of social and economic advancement, but
governments are helpless before this pandemic. Similarly, this pandemic will add up 2.45 million and 12
million children to be food insecure and stunned, respectively.

The UN guidance for the governments to combat the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 included five
pillars of such responses. We will be having a comparative analysis of those guidelines and steps taken by
Pakistan government to combat the pandemic. Firstly, it was stated that countries were expected to
prioritize the health of their citizens by advancing their health system and services in this crisis. National
Disaster Management Authority Pakistan (NDMA) was the responsible authority in this regard which took
measures, but their effectivity reduced due to number of factors. The low-testing capacity, absence of
protective kits for medical staff along with lack of awareness added to it. Secondly, it was advised to protect
basic services and citizens which was also taken into consideration by NDMA.

Thirdly, it was aimed to develop a resilient economy by giving subsidies and interest free loans that would
protect the jobs of daily-waged Labor, informal workers along with small enterprises. The federal
government has announced fiscal stimulus of Rs. 1.2 trillion, Ehsaas Emergency program of Rs. 144 billion,
cash grant of Rs.158 billion to 3 million daily wage Labor and a grant of Rs. 50 billion in providing subsidies in
utility stores, electricity bills, bank and mobile transactions. Fourthly, Pakistan needed multi-lateral
collaboration by negotiating for rescheduling of debts and identify special economic implications as guided.
Lastly, well-trained social dialogue and political engagement with proper role of mainstream media and civil
society was required to provide awareness regarding pandemic.

To put it to a nutshell, proper smart lockdowns along with massive testing is required to halt the spread of
COVID-19 in Pakistan. Moreover, Strict law and order implementation is required with heavy fines in case of
violation throughout the country. Similarly, awareness is needed regarding the consequences and protecting

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techniques. The opening of economic sectors with proper Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) along with
subsidies to the lower level enterprises and daily wagers is the dire need of hour. These could be the
strategies for efficiently countering the pandemic for now, but Pakistan must learn this valuable lesson that it
must cut off and funnel the budget to its health sector.

The author is an undergraduate student of Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad.

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Essay
of the Month
“Education is a progressive
discovery of our own
ignorance”
ESSAY OF THE MONTH
“Education is a progressive discovery of our own ignorance”
-Will Durant

Knowledge, truth, wisdom and intellect are many a times found juxtaposed
while mankind tries to articulate the highest goals of a meaningful life. Any
living species on earth has knowledge needed for its survival and over the
centuries all life forms have adapted and evolved, showing a universal
propensity to learn.

Men, of all life forms, have the most developed brains. Their ability to learn,
to use the acquired knowledge and to prosper is unmatched. Nature gave all
living creatures some natural strength to survive in thickest of the forests. If
some had a sharp smelling power, some were quick to run and hunt,
somewhere agile and some strong. Men were probably the weakest and
with their multitudinous inabilities, they were probably the easiest prey in
the jungle. But it was the brain that made them discover fire, learn to live in
caves and paint the walls, learn to speak, and from hunter gathers become
civilized and build big cities. One may be amazed to think how the pyramids
of Egypt were probably built and how the knowledge of trigonometry and
measurement were evolved in those days.

What we seek, while we speculate and meditate is the gradual end to our
ignorance. We have come a long way from worshiping the forces of nature
to the present-day scientific feats of our ability to get high resolution
pictures from the surface of Mars. From the speculation of Heraclitus,
Pythagoras, Socrates to renaissance of enlightenment ages, we have walked
a long road studded with numerous battles, catastrophes, challenges and
difficulties.

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The society of us men and women, made classes and hierarchies in almost all parts of the world. The sense of
the knowledgeable and strong being superior to the others percolated with time as our common sense.
Clergy, Nobles and peasants became almost universally accepted rungs of society. Inequality, injustice, slavery
and destitution for many amidst opulence, pomp and show of some, time and again made many men to think
about the best way of living and social order. Law books were written and treaties of administration were
mulled upon by sagely men and women. Many speakers of truth and philosophers of conviction saw the alters
of slaughter house. Many Godly men were killed and the strife between the truth and the evil continues till
date.

Amidst all this, views like satyamev jayate, and the infallibility of truthful person became accepted as norm.
God were seen as beings of greatest knowledge and men had to aspire to be one with God through their
penance and sacrifices.

The love for knowledge and the dying desire to know the truth led to numerous religions and scriptures
across the world. And while a large section of the masses found these high-sounding books of ultimate
knowledge as acceptable sometimes because of devotion and on the other because of fear, some divulged and
we also see Charvakas and Ajivika sects. The idea of truth being somewhere hidden beyond the skies and in
the centers of Universe saw their contrast in the wild naked dance of materialists who saw truth in rejoicing
the short life.

Education of men and women by the educated became the well accepted tenet of any society. Education of
the religious beliefs, social practices and sciences. Education of moral and ethical values. Education of poetry,
dance and cultural practices. Education leading to a light. Education that emancipates and makes one a better
being. All this and more became the mortars to hold the building blocks of emerging civilizations. And to
communicate this education was need of language. Language has evolved in tandem with this evolution of
mankind from age of isolation to present day age of globalization. If Shakespeare wrote ceaseless till his death
and Dostoevsky had to hire typists to type his magnanimous novels, today we have come to the age of Twitter,
were the 140 word limit captures the thoughts of people worldwide for myriad readers. Language has evolved,
with the needs of society and has been the sole carrier of knowledge from one generation to another. Though
Indian Philosopher may not totally agree with that and say that knowledge is acquired by four different ways:
Intuition, Inference, Comparison, or Verbal testimony (pratyaksha, anumaan, upama and shabd) yet without
language education can be unthinkable.

What do we educate ourselves with when we learn? The mystic poet Rumi may say: you know already, it is just
about seeing that which was left in the dark. And he may be very right. The true role of an educator is many a
times, to show the pupil where to look rather than what to look for. If ignorance is darkness, then education is
the candle. And what does it illuminate? What comes to light? Our own knowledge that was hidden from us!

When Albert Einstein was sitting at his desk in patent office at Bern and was gazing out his window, he
performed his famous mind experiment. He thought what will happen if he walks along the beam of light
coming from the clock tower at the same speed. He was stunned to realise that time will not change for him
and the whole beam of light will be like a photograph. Whole reality will alter and he will see only on thing for
the rest of his life! Was this knowledge new to mankind? Or was it there but no one was looking? What got
illuminated by this seemingly simple experiment was a fact that was there with the universe from the very
beginning.

Take another example. A match stick in a match box has all the chemicals at its tip that can burn the wooden
handle to ashes and yet unless one ignites it trough a mechanical stroke against a rough surface, it remains as
is. The knowledge of light and fire and the chemical reactions remain hidden. Education has such a role. It
ignites our mind and gives us the wings of fire as A P J Abdul Kalam Azad would lovingly say to children.

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Education has an enabling role. It enables us to
know what we know in a better way and know what
we can know by our mental prowess. It can make a
student a doctor or an engineer. Both might be
equally good and yet both may acquire knowledge
as different as needed to perform a cardiovascular
operation or to send a robot on moon. Education
shines the light on different centers of darkness and
we through our mental abilities and motivations
rise higher from we stand. Einstein once said that

he could see father because he stood at the shoulders of the giants. Each new generation has the privilege to
stand on a tall generation and sees a little farther than the previous generation. If painters painstakingly
sketched the surface of moon using telescope 200 years back, today we take high resolution photographs
almost every day. If calligraphers copied numerous copies of books all their lives few centuries back, today
fast lazer printer and publishing houses have flooded the market with numerous books in fine print.

We have been discovering our own full potentials through the torch of education. As this torch marches in
this marathon of evolution, we are invention, innovating and discovering plethora of known and unknown
knowledge in finer details. We are using our ability to know to predict natural disasters, to make safer
vehicles, to study climate changes, to find better seeds, to cure diseases and find vaccines, to increase our life
span, to find ways of making the world a better place. We are doing all this and more, in the light of our
ignorance of yester years. We are accepting the mistakes and walking ahead.

And yet we also see superstitious practices of dark ages continuing in 21st century. Blasphemy is still
considered a crime in many parts of the world according to orthodox tenets and men and women are still
stoned to death for surreal offences. Narendra Dabolkars are still shot dead for raising voice against
superstition.

Ours’ is population of over 7 billion men and women and we surely are not a monolith. We all live in our own
wells. Vivekanand asked us to come out these wells and see the ocean of knowledge. It is the long rope of
education that can pull us out from these wells of our creation.

Education has an enabling role to play in human prosperity. Many ills of society can be cured by educating
men and women. Amartya Sen argues in several of his essays, that educating women and developing the
agency of women is directly linked with improvement in IMR, MMR and sanitation problems that we face
today. He argues that education is not only a means of achieving our developmental goals it is very much the
end as well. For what development is development without building an educated society? Ignorance makes
people narrow minded and social ills continue to exit in absence of light. Dowry, honour killing, rape,
communal riots etc are major social concern that we have today in our Indian society. An educated society
can be more capable to looking into their own problems and finding their own solutions in an amicable way.

It is this ignorance that is exploited by hard liners and communal hater is spread through propaganda. Media
too participates in hurling the masses as herds of sheep in the direction of oblivion under the influence of
people having self interests. The sufferings of humanity are many atimes rooted in ignorance and wrong
perceptions. Only education can be the saviour in these cases.

Gautam Buddha when uttered his first words of wisdom after his revelation of truth, stressed on the
eight-fold path to nirvana. Right knowledge along with right perception is what a Buddhist sage tries to
meditate for whole his life. It is the wrong perception because of ignorance that is seen as the root cause of
all suffering and strife. Those who are illuminated. Those whose mind sees beyond the dark and light skins of

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men, speak of equality and sound hopes of “we shall
overcome”. Those men like Martin Luther King, talk
about their dream. Those poets like, Ravindra Nath
Tagore talk about a country where the head will be
held high and mind will be without fear. Such loving
messages percolate only from the clouds of
knowledge and knowing.
The lesser men talk like Hitlers and use
concentration camps to kill people. At this point, it
should be made clear that being educated might
have to do nothing with school or college degrees. A
civilized America can drop bombs of Hiroshima and
Nagasaki, and an uncivilized Bushman can save the
life of a dying tourist in the jungles of Kalahari.
Education can come from observation. Yes,
schooling is very important, but ethical and moral
values can be inculcated through family. Family,
thus is accepted as the first school of a child.
women education has to be given increased
attention. As we are becoming less and less
dependent of agriculture, skill development and
capacity building is also a major challenge that
needs to be addressed. We have long given
reservation to the educationally backwards classes
of our society and we need to build institutions to
fast track the process. Without an educated society,
inclusive growth may remain a distant dream.
And yet, such a talk is self-emancipatory in nature
as we seek to remove our own ignorance. Mankind,
in a global world, needs to know each other
problems and come out with help so as to sustain
life on this planet earth and do not burn our house
living in wrong perceptions and ignorance. A
progressive society must progressively end its
ignorance through collective and individual effort.

What we must aim at thus, is deepening of the roots

of education through collective effort and guidance
from higher souls. Nehru understood the
importance of education in nation building and the
institutions of learning of today’s India owe a lot to
his vision. The National Knowledge Commission was
recently set up with similar vision, to usher the
second wave of institution building in India.
Knowledge is going to become the key for any
nation that seeks to become a super power in
further. A knowledgeable society will be in a better
position to tackle with the upcoming challenges of
water scarcity, food security and meeting the
energy needs of tomorrow.

Also, with the spread of Information and

Communication Technology, an ignorant society
will be easier for the terrorist groups to terrorize
and polarize. Education has to play a major role to
save our civilization in coming century. In absence
of its light mankind repeats the mistakes and
history repeats itself remains one of the
oft-repeated phrases in history books.
In India, though the government has given
education an increased attention in recent past and
passage of RTE Act was a historic moment in our
Constitutional history, a lot needs to be done.
Ignorance fetters us and cannot walk with our
growing population and myriad challenges as we
eye towards the future that was once dreamt by
Tagore and Gandhi. Education has to spread and

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QUICK FACTS

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Extracts from NASA’s report

•The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius)
since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made
emissions into the atmosphere

•Data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost an average of 286
billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2016, while Antarctica lost about 127 billion tons of ice per
year during the same time period. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade

•NASA data show that average global temperatures in 2019 were 1.8 degrees F (0.98 degrees C) warmer
than the 20th century average.

•Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes,
Rockies, Alaska and Africa.

•Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is
nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.

•The amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion
tons per year.

In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, a group of scientific experts concluded there's a more than 95
percent probability that human activities over the past 50 years have warmed
our planet.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which includes more

than 1,300 scientists from the United States and other countries, forecasts a
temperature rise of 2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century.

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Extracts from Conservation International

•According to Conservation International, natural climate solutions such as restoring degraded forests
could create as many as 39 jobs per million dollars spent — that's a job-creation rate more than six times
higher than the oil and gas industry.
•Tropical forests are incredibly effective at storing carbon, providing at least a third of the mitigation action
needed to prevent the worst climate change scenarios. Yet nature-based solutions receive only 3% of all
climate funding.
•Eleven percent of all global greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans are due to deforestation—
comparable to the emissions from all of the passenger vehicles on the planet.
•The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere, as of May 2020, is the highest it has been in
human history.
•Roughly 3.2 billion people are currently impacted by land degradation worldwide. Restoration is critical
and cost-effective. Every US$ 1 invested in restoration generates, on average, 10x that amount in benefits.
•Eleven percent of the world’s population is currently vulnerable to climate change impacts [11] such as
droughts, floods, heat waves, extreme weather events and sea-level rise.
•Just 0.7% of the world’s forests are coastal mangroves, yet they store up to 10 times as much carbon per
hectare as tropical forests.
•This is what it would take to make the changes humanity needs to adapt to a warming world. It may sound
like a lot, but it’s less than 0.2% of global GDP. And the cost will only increase the longer we take to act
ambitiously.
•189 countries have ratified the 2015 Paris Agreement, agreeing to limit global warming and adapt to climate
change, partly by protecting nature

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Monthly
Press Review
Tortuous relations between Pakistan and Iran
Covenant with God
Status quo policies
India’s two fronts
How to deglobalize
Will Afghanistan’s long-delayed peace ever arrive?
Pakistan’s actual fault lines
Hagia Sophia Mosque
The plight of minorities in India
FATF restrictions and economic terrorism
Modi’s Kashmir blunder
Corruption has only mushroomed
Locusts: drone remedy
Time to bury the hatchet
Tortuous
relations
between
Pakistan and
Iran
Two Joint Investigation Team (JIT)
reports, one released by the
federal minister for maritime
affairs, Ali Haider Zaidi, and the
other by Sindh’s provincial
administration, corroborate each
other’s sensational findings about
Uzair Baloch, who remained a
notorious underworld figure in
Karachi for years. The report
issued by Zaidi, however, also
highlighted Baloch’s influence on
the Pakistan Peoples Party,
though this portion was
seemingly excised from the
document circulated by the Sindh
government.
Both reports gave us a glimpse
into Baloch’s relationship with
Iran. According to the report
Uzair claimed to be in possession
of an Iranian passport and was in
contact with the neighboring
country’s intelligence agencies.
The reports reveal that he was
tasked to collect information on
Pakistan Army’s deployment in
Karachi, military officials and key
military installations in the city.
It is not important which JIT
report is true since both of them
contain startling revelations
about Iran. Zaidi said that the
report was released after it was
shown to Prime Minister Imran
Khan, implying that its circulation
received a tacit approval from the
highest political office in the
country and its release was meant
to signal the government’s intent
and policy both to the general
public as well as Iran. This
explosive approach to delicate
diplomatic matters is
counterproductive and should
have been avoided, especially
given our recent history of
difficult relations with the Middle
Eastern state.
To give a background of the
current relations between the two
countries, Indian spy Kulbhushan
Jadhav used Iran as a transit route
to enter Pakistan and
commissioned wide ranging
terrorist activities in Balochistan.
The heavily fortified and secured
border between the two
neighboring states could not have
been crossed without the help of
Iranian border officials.
Furthermore, during the time of
the Taliban rule in Afghanistan,
Pakistan gave diplomatic and
economic support to the group,
resulting in regular
demonstrations in Tehran against
Pakistan and the burning of the
Pakistani flag. Given that Iran is
fully under the control of the
revolutionary regime, such
anti-Pakistan sentiment could not
have been possible without
Tehran’s approval and hence this
reflects its official policy toward
Pakistan back then.
This animosity between Pakistan
and Iran is largely a product of
the Iranian Revolution since
friendly relations were a norm
during the reign of Reza Shah
Pahlavi. Iran was the first country
to recognize Pakistan, and the
Shah was the first foreign leader
who traveled to it. Iran supported
Pakistan during the 1965 war with
India, providing medical and
economic assistance. It also
provided 5,000 tons of oil to
Pakistan and hinted at stopping
oil exports to India.
According to the website of the
Iranian embassy in Islamabad,
Tehran also bought 90 Sabre jet
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It is also yet to be determined
whether the publishing of the JIT
report was meant to be a warning
to Iran or it was simply another
case of political point-scoring
against the opposition.
Nadeem Aqil
fighters from West Germany and
handed them over to Pakistan to
augment the defense capability of
the South Asian state after the
war with India came to an end,
though such cooperation was
never announced by either of
them. We do not have any
third-party confirmation of it as
well.
Both Pakistan and
pre-revolutionary Iran were
active members of the
Organization for Regional
Cooperation and Development
(RCD) and maintained deep
economic, social, and cultural ties
with each other. As an example,
Iranian cultural centers were
established in Pakistan’s major
cities where Persian was taught
and cultural activities were
promoted. In this period, there
was no sectarian tension between
the two countries.
Travel and tourism expanded
between the two neighboring
states, and a great deal of
sincerity was also visible in their
growing relationship. Both
countries remained firmly in the
Western camp throughout the
Cold War, with defense relations
growing stronger after President
Gamal Abdel Nasser’s coup d’état
in Egypt, which triggered fears of
overthrow among monarchies
across the region. Iran also
explicitly supported Pakistan in
the 1971 War, condemning India
and by providing full diplomatic
support to Pakistan.
The relations should ideally have
strengthened after the revolution.
Unfortunately, the relations
developed doubts and became
cold. Iran, like any young
revolutionary set-up, was keen to
export its new political outlook to
neighboring states. Pakistan was
also taken over by a military
general who used religion to
strengthen his grip over the
polity. With religious forces at the
helm in both countries, the
foundations of their relations
were shaken for the first time.
Things became worse during the
“Afghan Jihad” and the Taliban
rule and animosity became visible
even at public level. Iranian
diplomat, cadets murdered and
abducted in Pakistani city of
Multan in 1997 resulting in similar
life threatening situations for
Pakistani diplomats in Iran.
Protests outside the Pakistan
embassy in Tehran became a
common occurrence, and
Pakistani consulates’ operations
within Iran were impeded by
constant harassment by city
officials. This practice still
continues to varying degrees until
today.
Throughout this diplomatic rift,
Iran grew closer to India by
deepening economic and social
ties. The two countries also
started looking at the evolving
regional issues by the same lens.
While subscribing to Indian
concerns over the Gwadar port
and agreeing to reduce its
importance, Iran allowed India to
invest heavily in the completion of
its Chabahar port.
Senior Pakistani diplomats
familiar with the Iran-Pakistan
relations maintain that Tehran
never liked Pakistan to become a
nuclear power since this shifted
primacy in the Muslim world
further away from Iran.
Uzair Baloch’s revelations showed
us that the Iranian government
had a special interest in Karachi
and Tehran may have been
involved in creating unrest in
Pakistan’s commercial hub,
whether on its own behalf or at
the behest of the Indian
administration.
It is also yet to be determined
whether the publishing of the JIT
report was meant to be a warning
to Iran or it was simply another
case of political point-scoring
against the opposition.
In any case, such public
accusations against Iran can
further strain relations and have a
destabilizing impact on the
region. It would have been more
prudent to quietly express such
concerns while efforts are being
made to rekindle ties with Iran —
something that the Pakistani
prime minister tried during his
visit to Tehran last year.
It is true that Pakistan’s national
interests must be protected at all
cost, but the best course to
achieve that objective is through
diplomacy, not by publishing
intelligence reports, leveling
accusations in public.
*Nadeem Aqil is a former Pakistani
ambassador to Indonesia.
Published in Arab News.PK, August 05, 2020
Covenant
with
God
ON May 13, 2020, a group of men
entered a maternity hospital in
Kabul, killing several mothers
and babies. In India, Muslims
face daily murders, rapes,
humiliation and conversions. In
April 2017, Mashal Khan, a young
student, was lynched by a group
of men within the premises of a
university in Pakistan.
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In 2019, 62 worshippers
performing Friday prayers were
killed by a bomb blast in
Nangarhar. Back in 2002, a fire
broke out at a girl’s school in
Makkah. Fifteen young girls died
and 50 injured, allegedly because
they were beaten back to go
inside: they had not covered their
heads. In 1987, more than 400
unarmed pilgrims, mostly
Iranians, were killed in Makkah
during a protest. The list goes on.
One fact stands out: most of the
outpouring of anger, sympathy
and concern came from
non-Muslim organisations, people
and countries. Muslims were, by
and large, silent.
Even as the world seems to have
come closer, with a more
formalised structure of human
rights, it has regressed into
increasing hatred and acts of
violence against the ‘other’,
whoever it might be. It took the
Christians six centuries of
religiously supported wars and
torture against Muslims and Jews
to decide that they could safely
replace religion with science.
They colonised, ridiculed
Muslims, spread false rumours,
destroyed traditions of Muslim
scholarship and weakened Muslim
societies* through carefully
orchestrated propaganda.
Islamophobia has increased since
9/11 with Muslims being held in
Guantanamo Bay prison and
tortured. Very few Muslim
governments stood up to help
them.
Muslims have shunned progress
and new ideas.
Muslims did more than their
share of bringing themselves
down, spiritually, intellectually,
economically and scientifically.
From being pioneers of science,
logic and rational thought, their
contribution to world science
literature is now meagre.
Forty-six Muslim countries
contribute 1.17pc to science
literature as compared to 1.66pc
by India and 1.48pc by Spain.
Where their schools were centres
of learning for all, regardless of
religious or ethnic background,
they are now sectarian, often
teaching tunnel-vision versions of
their faith. By and large, Muslims
have turned away from progress;
destroyed their own institutions,
and refused to self-analyse.
The Sharia was a path towards
divine guidance, lighting up
minds, providing opportunities
for knowledge seekers from all
over the world, opening hearts to
mercy, compassion, kindness,
graciousness and all that is
beautiful in God’s world. The
Sharia, along with human
thought, was the core of ethics.
Instead, it is now often trivialised,
used mostly for matters regarding
women and sex segregation and
enforcing marital subservience of
wives.
Islamic classical tradition
assumed a condition of isma or
inviolability of human life, based
on the Quran and the Prophet’s
(PBUH) sayings.
Many Muslim theorists forbade
the practice of takfir (accusing
someone who calls himself a
Muslim of not being one and
producing inferred evidence). The
Quran called idolaters ‘kafir’
(those who denied the Truth in
presence of and after conclusive
arguments by the Prophet); the
faithful now find it legitimate to
declare anyone kafir, hound them,
turn them out of their homes and
destroy their property. The
easiest way to do this is to level
false allegations of blasphemy and
raise such a hue and cry that even
courts issue guilty verdicts.
States have begun to profess a
religion, so all who believe differ-
ently are second-class citizens,
with few rights. The tyranny of
rulers can no longer be ques-
tioned.
One of the worst consequences of
this political and moral weakening
of Muslim societies is the break-
ing of Muslims of their covenant
with God. This covenant was to
establish qist (reasonable justice)
which cannot be achieved unless
the grievance and remedy is
assessed from the perspective of
the victim, and to call for maruf
(good) and advocate against
munkar (evil). Classical jurists of
Islam equate the maruf with how
a person would like to be treated.
The understanding of what is
maruf and munkar is resident
within a person’s nature. God
places the responsibility of the
morals of a society squarely upon
its people and declares: “...Verily
never will Allah change the
condition of a people until they
change it themselves. ... (13:11)”.
The Quran calls upon humans to
give evidence of the truth, even if
it means going against one’s
family or interests. In other
words, Muslims should raise their
voices against crimes perpetrated
by Muslims, even more than they
would for those committed by
non-Muslims.
Today, this has been turned on its
head. Non-Muslim societies
provide justice far more in line
with the Sharia, mete out humane
treatment, provide refuge to
those who have suffered under
oppressive regimes at home and
speak up against rights violations.
As Dr Khaled Abu El Fadel says, it
is as if “someone uses the superfi-
cially technical Sharia to violate
Sharia”.
Published in The Dawn News, 24 July,2020
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Status
quo policies
IS Imran Khan’s government
unravelling or is it merely
mid-term turbulence? The
answer depends on Khan’s various
partners in power. Khan’s main
partners in power are state
institutions, and institutions tend
to find comfort in the status quo.
My understanding of the
institutional comfort with status
quo deepened when I was invited
to lead a workshop at a National
Defence University event at the
Marriott Hotel in Karachi in 2014.
Before the workshop, there was
supposed to be a keynote address
by an important person whose
name had been kept secret. While
we were setting up, in walked Gen
Naveed Mukhtar, at the time the
corps commander in Karachi,
with a press legion in tow. He
took the floor and proceeded to
announce another operation in
Karachi. The key reason he gave
was obviously, bad governance
and the fact that ‘wrong choices
had been made’.
Luckily, the powerful general did
not bother to turn around and see
the graphic slide I had already
brought up on screen as an
introduction to Pakistan’s
predicament. A graph that
showed a relentless but
consistent economic decline
evidenced by a basket of social
indicators from 1992 until 2014.
Irrespective of whether it was a
civilian or a military government
and regardless of choices made,
economic indicators showed
Pakistan had continued sliding.
The press left the building with
the general, debating the civil
versus military equation rather
than policy itself. Karachi’s
history reveals a policy status quo
— operation followed by
operation. Never examined
through a strategic economic
prism, the isolated operations
policy can guarantee nothing but
another operation.
A strategic review would ask
tough questions.
Similarly, the absence of debate
on broader strategic questions
has resulted in our interior,
defence and foreign policies being
frozen. For example, Kashmir is
considered a taboo subject on
which everyone is supposedly on
the same page. From the PML-N
to the PTI everyone trips over
themselves to pay lip service to
Kashmir. A strategic review would
ask tough questions, like whether
the policy for the last 70 years has
done anything for the betterment
of the Kashmiri people or are they
worse off? It would also evaluate
the cost to the poorest two billion
people of the world and then
decide on whether a more
aggressive policy is the solution
or perhaps a shift to a more
complex engagement including
prioritising trade is a way
forward.
Look at China and India. Despite
the clashes on their border, which
we are very excited about, they
have quietly got on with the $75bn
trade between the two countries.
Just to contextualise, our trade
with China is around $16bn and
not even worth mentioning with
India. Have we ever weighed
accepting India’s offer on
normalising relations in return for
relief for the tortured Kashmiri
people? An economic policy
would pragmatically debate this
question across policymaking
interfaces.
Imran Khan is unable to provide
the interface as he has no
economic policy. If this was not
evident when he replaced Asad
Umar with Hafeez Shaikh, it
became even more evident with
his FBR play. When he,
unnecessarily, removed Jehanzeb
Khan as the chairman Federal
Board of Revenue in 2019, I noted,
in these very pages, that Shabbar
Zaidi may work out only if Imran
Khan provides him political
support. Since Jehanzeb Khan had
a solid track record as a
professional, apolitical civil
servant with strong achievement
credentials, my remarks were
construed as supporting the
change and evoked widespread
consternation. In hindsight, Imran
Khan could not support either of
the two because he had no
economic policy. His lack of
economic policy is the root cause
of the economic stasis.
We live in a dangerous part of the
world and our army is essential to
citizens having the security to
order their lives. Our army,
however, due to its historical
political role needs political
interfaces who can explore
alternative economic policies to
sustain our strategic interests. So
far, Khan has been unable to
provide the interface necessary to
develop broader strategic policy
rooted in economic reality. The
result is frozen status quo policies
and economic stasis. The
advantage of this paradigm to
Khan is twofold: status quo
institutions are comfortable and
the Imran Khan government is
not unravelling.
Unfortunately, status quo policies
are rapidly increasing the danger
of our national fabric unravelling
due to a mismatch between our
economy and our strategic
objectives. A bonus for Khan is
that currently the opposition has
not focused on such strategic
debate either and focused on
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playing populist issues, hoping
the institutions will consider
them as alternatives. If Bilawal
Bhutto-Zardari and Maryam
Nawaz stay with this approach
they are unlikely to qualify as
credible alternatives. By providing
no alternatives to the status quo,
even if they rule one day, they
may, like Khan, rule but not
govern.
The writer is a former caretaker finance
minister of Sindh.
Published in Dawn, July 23rd, 2020
India’s
two faces
ARE they really serious when
successive Indian army chiefs
say they are preparing for a
two-front war? Or is a two-front
war merely a bogey to attract
sympathy from the right
quarters? The more important
question is: does India really
consider China an enemy and
does it really have the stomach
or the desire to fight China? The
June 15 clash clearly shows India
will do anything to appease
China.
Yet, astonishing as it sounds,
while flaunting their ambitious
plans for a two-front war, the
current army chief and his
predecessor give themselves away
when they declare that the focus
of their war preparations is
basically Pakistan and that on the
Chinese front the Indian army will
adopt a policy of deterrence.
In his first press conference after
taking over as army chief last
December, Gen Manoj Mukund
Naravane spoke of “collusivity”
between Pakistan and China and
said this could be “both physical
on land borders and in other
spheres also” as in technology and
“in coming to each other’s help in
times of trouble”. This “collusivity”
between two of India’s
neighbours, he said, was
“maximum” around the Siachen
glacier and Shaksgam valley. For
that reason, he said, it was
important to “keep that area in
our possession” because Pakistan
was waging a “proxy war” on
India, while China was “flexing its
muscles”.
For those perceived threats,
India’s war plans are ambitious
and include, besides road and rail
infrastructure and tunnelling, a
new mountain strike corps — 17th
— consisting of 100,000 men. This
corps will be so located that it can
be deployed on both the western
(Pakistan) and northern fronts
(China).
India will never commit suicide by
taking on China for America’s
benefit.
On the army’s strategy for the
border with China, Gen Naravane
explained: “We have to balance
out our requirements and
deployments to cater for both
west and north. For the northern
frontiers, we are going for
capacity building, which includes
building roads to forward areas,
habitats, storage for ammunition
and moving some of our advanced
weapons system to [the] eastern
side. In a way of balancing out we
can meet a threat from any
direction. As a result of this
rebalancing, we are now prepared
for this challenge.”
The general then reaffirmed what
Gen Bipin Rawat, his predecessor,
had said with regard to the truth
about the two-front war. In an
interview with the Times of India,
Gen Rawat, appointed army chief
in December 2016, said: “The
two-front is a real scenario. Much
has changed from before in terms
of our capabilities … the army,
navy and IAF are now jointly very
much prepared for such an
eventuality.” Apart from the
development of Agni IV and Agni
V nuclear capable ballistic
missiles, he said, the forces have
taken a series of steps to slowly
but surely transform the
“dissuasion” posture against
China into “deterrence”, which in
turn is now being upgraded to
“credible deterrence”.
Then he revealed what truly
reflects the mindset and strategic
thinking of India’s civil and
military leadership. In case there
are simultaneous threats from
Pakistan and China, Gen Rawat,
who is also India’s first chief of
defence staff, said there would be
a primary front and a secondary
front. “The bulk of our forces and
resources will be concentrated on
the primary [Pakistan] front. On
the other front, we will adopt a
more deterrent posture, so that
we are not found wanting”.
While the new corps (consisting
of two high-altitude divisions)
would have “quick reaction,
ground offensive capabilities”, he
made clear that India wanted
cooperation not conflict with
China. But, where Pakistan was
concerned, he said in a talk at
CLAWS, a military think tank, “we
do not see any scope for
reconciliation”.
The truth is India will never
commit suicide by taking on
China for America’s benefit, the
two-front theory designed
basically to get as much
economic, diplomatic and military
support as American naivety
would allow.
Will India concede more territory
to China? Yes because India has
already written off Aksai Chin,
which it once claimed. Today, a
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strategic highway linking Xinjiang
to Tibet runs through Aksai Chin.
Aware of Chinese sensitivity, New
Delhi doesn’t even raise this issue
because it knows Beijing is not
going to talk about it. Thus, when
India talks of a border dispute
with China, it only refers to the
eastern border.
As the fate of arbitration after the
Rann of Kutch clashes shows,
India will concede a mile to China
but it will not give an inch to
Pakistan. In brief, America must
know India has no desire to
destroy itself for Pentagon’s
pleasure. The two-front hoax is
meant to squeeze the milch cow
that is America. As its 2003
invasion of Iraq shows,
Washington spent trillions of
dollars for Israel’s benefit. Why
wouldn’t America do the same in
South Asia?
Published in Dawn, July 21st, 2020
How to
deglobalize
In the midst of the COVID-19
pandemic, politicians are calling
for a rethinking of global supply
chains. If they are serious, they’ll
need to proceed carefully.
Following the global COVID-19
pandemic, a wave of politicians
has railed against the supposed
vulnerabilities of global supply
chains and promised to bring
production of critical goods back
home.
In the United States, the Trump
administration is reportedly
“turbocharging” its plans to
disconnect supply chains from
China and debating a new $25
billion “reshoring fund” to
encourage U.S. firms to bring
manufacturing back to the states.
Not to be outdone, presidential
candidate Joe Biden’s campaign
has outlined how his
administration would tackle
supply chain vulnerabilities. He’s
placed the topic alongside trade,
taxes, and immigration as key
planks for managing globalization.
Meanwhile, European Union
Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan
has argued that Europe needs to
diversify its supply chains in order
to promote “strategic autonomy,”
while also noting that autonomy
doesn’t necessarily mean full
self-sufficiency. Japan has perhaps
acted the most decisively so far,
announcing a new fund to
subsidize Japanese firms moving
production out of China; to date
87 companies have taken the
government up on the offer. South
Korea is exploring similar ideas.
Many outside analysts are
skeptical that such plans for
deglobalization will succeed. They
rightly note that contemporary
global supply chains are extremely
complex, the outcome of millions
of individual uncoordinated firm
decisions. Any attempts to unwind
these processes will be
cumbersome and costly. Although
COVID-19 has prompted firms to
revisit the trade-offs between
efficiency and resiliency in their
own supplier relationships, this
does not mean that they’ll
welcome government interference
in such assessments. In fact, early
reports suggest that firms around
the world have been cool to their
governments’ efforts to woo them
away from China.
The skeptics are correct that
rewiring supply chains will be
difficult, and that firms are
unlikely to simply fall in line with
the wishes of politicians,
particularly when doing so cuts
against their bottom lines. Yet
governments have more power to
shift supply chains than may be
obvious at first glance: Yes, it’s
true that global supply chains
reflect individual firm decisions.
But these decisions are made
within a policy environment set by
governments. The current form of
globalization is a policy choice;
other worlds are still possible.
And it might be worth pursuing
them. Although some politicians’
rhetoric on supply chains may
drift into old-fashioned
protectionism, there are genuine
concerns about the risks and
vulnerabilities that have
developed through deep
globalization. Complex global
supply chains have undoubtedly
improved efficiency and increased
consumer choice, but they have
also limited states’ abilities to
manage, regulate, and, when
necessary, direct the flow of
critical goods. Governments
should take the threats of supply
chain disruptions seriously,
whether from natural disasters,
economic crises, or the deliberate
weaponization of
interdependencies in the global
economy. And they should realize
that firms’ individual private
interests may not always align
with broader public interests,
suggesting greater government
intervention may be needed.
What is clear, however, is that
political exhortations alone won’t
shift supply chains: Governments
need concrete policy proposals,
not vague directives, if they want
to see real change. Moreover,
restructuring supply chains
should be done carefully and
strategically, not through ad hoc,
piecemeal policy announcements.
In short, governments need to do
their homework before acting.
Rushing to dole out untargeted
subsidies or implement new
export controls will be both costly
and ineffective: Governments will
end up not only wasting money
but also failing to address the
vulnerabilities that worried them
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in the first place. Here are some
practical steps to get started.
First, governments need better
information on the existing
structure of supply chains.
Modern supply chains are intricate
webs of purchasing relationships
linking hundreds of firms across
dozens of countries; while many
individual firms map their direct
suppliers to assess potential
vulnerabilities, it is difficult to
piece together the bigger picture
of backward and forward linkages
both within and across industry
groups. In general, governments
do a good job tracking when
products move across borders (in
part because they want to tax
them, through tariffs), but they do
a far worse job measuring how
various intermediate inputs are
integrated into supply chains, or
how domestic and foreign
production processes interact.
This dearth of data means that
governments not only are blind to
potential vulnerabilities and
bottlenecks in supply chains but
also lack the maps they need to
guide their interventions and avoid
unintended consequences. In the
United States, the government has
previously carried out supply
chain mapping exercises for a
handful of so-called strategic
industries, such as critical
minerals. In the wake of COVID-19,
it has announced plans to do the
same for medical products. But
much more can and should be
done: Rather than waiting until key
shortages begin upending supply
chains, governments should
proactively map the linkages
across a wide range of industries.
Doing so, however, will first
require a debate on which
industries are most critical to
national security and prosperity.
Published in The Foreign Policy, 24 July,2020
Will
Afghanistan’s
long delayed
peace ever
arrive?
As Kabul and the Taliban
continue to stall peace talks,
Afghans’ hopes are dying.
In Afghanistan, February 2020
created a short-lived hope for the
end of an 18-year war that has
been brutal, intimate, and vicious.
The one-week trial of a reduction
in violence, followed by an
agreement between the United
States and the Taliban in
February, was cherished as a
major step toward peace. Yet in
the five months since then, a
dispute over actually enacting
peace has eroded the people’s
hope for an end to the endless
war.
The U.S.-Taliban deal left the
Taliban more victorious than the
Afghan government, but the
public enthusiasm was built
around the forthcoming
negotiations between the Taliban
and the Afghan government. The
months-long delay in the
negotiations – originally
supposed to begin in March –
whittled away at public hope for
an end to the war, though the
peace process continued in slow
motion.
Most recently, a Taliban
spokesperson offered to begin
negotiations at the beginning of
August, after the Eid ul Adha
holiday, but only if the Afghan
government releases more
Taliban prisoners. Kabul has
previously been reluctant to do
so; in the end, this may just be
another proposed deadline that
comes and goes to no effect.
The longer the peace talks take to
begin, the deadlier the war
becomes. The achingly slow
process hurts the widespread
Afghan consensus that war is, at
heart, an aberration. In turn,
public disappointment hurts the
chances for peace, giving the
upper hand to anti-peace groups
seeking to exploit the battlefield.
Under such circumstances,
regional powers step in to
safeguard their interests.
The delay in peace talks “hurt the
process hard,” said Ali Amiri, a
lecturer at Avicenna University, a
private university in Kabul. “The
blame games replaces [talks]. The
public are less confident about
the process. Anti-peace groups
are more confident. Terrorist
groups and regional powers are
more hopeful to exploit the
disruption in the process.”
Before the U.S.-Taliban
agreement in February, the
public’s hopes an end to the
ruthless violence had been
crushed multiple times. Over the
last decade, while the United
States pushed for a peace deal
with the Taliban, the process was
never smooth. The Afghan
government learned in 2015 that
Mullah Omar, the leader of the
Taliban with whom the
government had been trying to
negotiate for years, had died in
2013.
That public embarrassment
shaped public mistrust and low
confidence in the peace process.
The sense that the Afghan
government was being sidelined
gained traction when U.S.
President Donald Trump walked
away from a near deal with the
Taliban on September 9, 2019
over the death of an American.
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After all, the United States had
continued talking with the Taliban
even as score of Afghans were
killed in the war.
But the public sense of being tired
of the war — in addition to the
one-week reduction in violence in
February 2020 — “was a positive
factor in the peace process,” said
Amiri, the lecturer in Kabul.
“Public enthusiasm about peace
was increased with the
U.S.-Taliban agreement.”
“An important factor in a peace
process is public confidence and
support for peace,” he added.
“When you put forward a very
technical process of peace that
lacks public confidence and
public support, you are going to
have troubles.”
Trump has been impatient with
the war, and sought to withdraw
– even without a comprehensive
peace settlement — in a bid to
boost his chances in the
November presidential election.
The Taliban and the Afghan
government made their moves
accordingly, at the cost of
damaging public confidence in
the process.
The “current situation is limbo,”
said Andrew Watkins, senior
analyst for Afghanistan at
International Crisis Group. “The
parties are standing at a doorway;
the only realistic chance to end
violence is inside. And both sides
are fixated on how the other
won’t walk in first.”
Instead, the Taliban have returned
to violence to gain leverage while
the government waits for better
leverage in the peace process,
after being largely left out of the
U.S.-Taliban talks.
“The government and the Taliban
aim to gain leverage before the
negotiations,” said Amiri, the
lecturer. “The Taliban increased
violence and the killings to show
that they were an effective power
and would not back down.”
Far from Kabul and public
attention, deep in the mountains
and rural outposts, the war rages
on. With a U.S.-Taliban agreement
that does not explicitly dictate a
reduction in violence, the Taliban
target Afghan security outposts
and bases without the fear of the
U.S. airstrikes that used to be the
Afghan government’s main
leverage in the battlefield.
The Taliban returned to their
old-fashioned deadly car bombs,
followed by commando-style
assaults on the government. The
Taliban attacked a district
compound in southern Kandahar
province in early July and drove a
car packed with explosives into
the Afghan intelligence agency
headquarters in northern
Samangan province in mid-July.
Between 30 and 40 Afghan troops
are killed every day.
If the situation continues, the
Afghan public “may develop a
belief that the Taliban is not
willing to make peace, so they
should use force against the
Taliban even if the government is
not doing so,” said Amin Ahmadi, a
member of the Afghan
government’s negotiation team
for talks with the Taliban. “It can
fuel proxy war, chaos, and
disorder in the country. If people
lose hope for peace, they have no
other option.”
The Taliban justifies their violence
using the government’s refusal to
release Taliban, while the Afghan
government blames the Taliban’s
violence for the delay in the
prisoners’ release. According to
the U.S.-Taliban deal, the United
States facilitated the release of up
to 5,000 Taliban fighters from
Afghan prisons in exchange for
the release of 1,000 government
prisoners from Taliban detention.
President Ashraf Ghani of
Afghanistan has vowed only to
release Taliban fighters if given
guarantees that the released
prisoners would not return to the
battlefield. The Taliban handed
out a list of prisoners that should
be released, but the government
did not agree with the release of
some high-profile prisoners that
were behind deadly attacks in
Kabul, the Afghan capital. Despite
the disagreements, over the
course of months, the
government has released over
4,000 Taliban prisoners while the
Taliban released around 770
people.
The delay in prisoner releases
“has been more [due to]
obstructionism in the peace
process rather than security
concerns,” said Amiri, the lecturer
in Kabul. “President Ashraf Ghani
and other decision-makers of the
Afghan government are pessimist
about the process. They think the
government will eventually lose
much more [than the Taliban] in
the process.”
Already, the inability of the
Afghan government and the
Taliban to start peace talks has
taken a toll on the country. Amiri
said that the dispute “cause
irreversible public damages” in
the future. He warned that the
Taliban might seek a decisive
breakthrough, such as capturing a
province. “In such a case, the
government would be weakened
further, or eventually collapse.”
One side effect is public despair.
For 40 years now, the public has
been swept along with failed
policies and strategies.
Afghanistan’s 35 million people
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are caught in a complicated
battlefield that drains the blood of
young people, ruins families,
sends shockwaves across the
country every week, and takes
away hope for a better future.
“At the time of public despair and
hopelessness, anti-peace groups
and terrorist groups exploit the
public despair to serve their
agendas,” said Amiri. “The
terrorist groups seize the
opportunity and secure their
interest in disorder and chaos.”
Ghani and other Afghan and
American officials have repeatedly
talked about the dozens of active
small terrorist groups in the
country. The Islamic State stands
to lose in any peace deal, as the
Afghan government and the
Taliban could join forces to fight
against the extremist group in the
country. Zalmay Khalilzad, the
American peace envoy, has
emphasized this in various
interviews with reporters.
The National Directorate of
Security, the Afghan intelligence
agency, recently arrested two
Islamic State fighters that were
planning to attack Imam Ali
Hospital — a private hospital
owned by Shiites located in a
Shiite neighborhood of Kabul —
and a private TV station in Kabul.
The failed attempt could
potentially have caused public
outrage at peace efforts to end
the war.
“In every peace process, some
parties benefit and others do not,”
said Amiri. “Not all regional
powers benefit from peace in
Afghanistan. Those countries that
do not interpret peace in
Afghanistan as in their line of
interests will likely try to disrupt
the process. When the process
stalls or delays, they have a better
chance to disrupt the process.”
More than one regional power is
seeking to exploit the Afghan
battlefield for its own interests. In
addition to Pakistan, whose
supporter for the Taliban is an
open secret, Iran and Russia —
two adversaries of the United
States – have joined in the double
game, supporting the Afghan
government and the Taliban alike
in a bid to hedge their bets.
In one recent sign of complexity
of the war, Russia allegedly paid
the Taliban to kill Americans and
NATO troops in Afghanistan. A
middleman, who got his start
drug trafficking, made contacts
with the Russians and connected
them with the Taliban. The
incident proves that regional
powers have many channels to
secure their interests.
But who will secure the interests
of the Afghan people – and how?
Published in The Diplomat, 25 July, 2020
Pakistan’s
actual fault
lines
We need to find a way to fix our
fault lines or we will not
progress an inch
If you are a Pakistani fascinated by
the country’s history there is a
good chance you have been
brought up on a controlled diet.
There is one narrative that is set
by the state. The one that starts
with Bin Qasim’s attack on Sindh
and ends with the countless
explanations for the country’s
existence. You know that version
because it has been scrutinised
constantly. But then there is a
counter narrative. A meta
narrative that emerged in
defiance. About the country’s
chequered history, it’s civil
military imbalance, its misplaced
priorities and at times the
ridiculousness of its existence.
Both these narratives grew in
reaction to something and are
therefore incapable of doing
justice to the very complex reality
of this nation’s existence. The
beauty of these narratives is that
they very effectively hide the real
fault lines and centres of power.
Let us focus on some of these
fault lines to comprehend what is
holding us back.
Pakistan’s first fault line is called
ideology. You would think that a
country with a Muslim population
of over 96% would have no
trouble on that front but then you
would be wrong.
Consider this: On August 11, 1947,
only days before the birth of the
country, its Founder delivered an
illuminating speech on the
country’s future promising
religious freedom to all citizens
amid other things. The speech
was heavily censored before
release and the audio record of it
is still not found. Ask yourself why.
Because somebody in the
government thought that this
speech by the country’s Founding
Father contradicted the ideology
of Pakistan. Let it sink in. The
words of the only man who won
you freedom through a
democratic and legal struggle
were not palatable for somebody
who was already interpreting
ideology for you.
But what is this ideology? The
two-nation theory? Islam as the
state religion? The Quaid’s words
did not contradict either. The
Indian majority that was viewed as
a constant threat was nearly
packed away into a separate
nation. Gone. Done away with.
Now the minorities that still lived
in the country had opted to stay
here. They had a right to expect
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some reward for their faith. Also, a
nation that was founded to escape
the majoritarian fanaticism
currently on display in India could
not subject the minorities it
inherited to the same kind of
absolutism. Notice I do not bring
up the matter of fundamental
human rights because in the
mid-40s the world was a different
place with the vestiges of Nazism
and fascism still dividing the
global discourse. And the Nazis
had already shown the world how
minorities could be othered and
deprived of all human rights. The
fact that real interpretation of
Islam had stopped a millennium
ago, much before the emergence
of modern states, did not help. In
fact, Allama Mashriqi’s
Nazi-inspired Khaksar Tehreek
had attacked and beheaded a
member of the Ahmedi
community in the formative years
of the country. So, an argument
existed at the time in support of
stripping minorities of all their
rights. But Jinnah knew better.
And his views were not
contradicting either of the two
ideologies. But somebody thought
they were.
Could it be the permanent ruling
class of the country which Hamza
Alvi once dubbed as the “salariat”
and we now call the bureaucracy?
The answer to this would take us
to the second fault line. But let us
first handle this one. Why
Pakistan was created and why the
country’s bureaucracy thought
that censoring its Founding Father
was a good idea were two
different things. The first is
settled for good by Narendra
Modi’s government in India today.
The second has shaped how
Pakistan has grown to this day. In
1947 the country may not have too
many great examples of pluralism
to emulate but countless exist
since then. This was supposed to
be a dialogue between the state
and society but a permanent class
which co-opted the term
‘ideology’ for its own survival has
doubled down on the first raw
draft and refuses to budge. From
there the interpretation has bled
into curriculum books, other
institutions of the state and even
the Constitution. Until it is
allowed to be updated with time,
we will stay lost in the jungle. This
matter becomes of urgent nature
when we take into account what
we went through during the War
on Terror when a group of Muslim
Pakistanis killed around 80,000
co-religionist fellow citizens
because of the different
interpretations of ideology.
The second fault line is not the
civil-military divide, although that
too exists to a lesser degree. The
second fault line exists between
untrained politicians and an
experienced bureaucracy.
Pakistan is ruled by the latter. No
matter who sits atop the greasy
pole called the executive, it is
invariably the bureaucracy which
runs the machinery of
governance. That is why General
Musharraf could do precious little
without the help of his old friend
Tariq Aziz. That is why every
prime minister’s principal
secretary is considered so
powerful. When we choose to
criticise the men and women at
the top we deliberately ignore
who actually wields power. The
example of the Musharraf era
devolution comes to mind. The
ruler back then was powerful. The
bureaucracy did not approve of
the plan to change dynamics at
the grassroot level. Who would if
it meant losing control on
ground? It quietly went along and
waited till the time the
amendment lost the Sixth
Schedule cover and then
recaptured the lost space.
You are fascinated by all this talk
of reforms. During Nawaz Sharif’s
time the then planning minister
often spoke about bureaucratic Hagia Sophia
reform. But we did not even see
the first draft of the proposals. Mosque
Now, Dr Ishrat Hussain talks about
The Hagia Sophia decision is
these reforms. We still await a
widely seen in the context of
coherent and comprehensive set
Erdogan’s quest for Islamising
of proposals to this effect. An
Turkey.
interesting case study in this
context is of Daniyal Aziz, the man
From a church to a mosque, then
who knows the weaknesses in the
to a museum and back into a
structure by heart. When the
mosque, Hagia Sophia has donned
Musharraf era ended and the
many garbs since it came into
National Reconstruction Bureau
existence some fifteen hundred
headed by Aziz was dismantled, he
years ago. The iconic monument
failed to return to the parliament
was built as an Orthodox
in the following elections. And
Christian cathedral in
when he did somebody had
Constantinople, now Istanbul,
convinced the ruling PML-N that
between 532 and 537 under the
he should be kept away from
Byzantine reign. In 1453, it was
projects relating to reform and
converted into a mosque after the
instead be asked to defend the
Fall of Constantinople to the
government like an ordinary if
Ottoman Empire. Five centuries
aggressive spokesman. The total
on – in 1934 to be exact – Mustafa
deconstruction of an able man
Kemal Pasha, the first Turkish
with the knowledge of all bodies
President and founder of modern
ever buried was to ensue. And
day Turkey, transformed the
where is he now?
majestic building into a museum
as he moved to secularise the
Our third fault line is of the feudal
country.
mentality. Not feudalism but of
the feudal mentality. Feudalism
And now in a decision that has
has waned with the natural course
antagonised many in the world,
of land redistribution over
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
generations, but the feudal
has converted the Istanbul
mindset still survives. How should
landmark into a mosque again
the rich and powerful behave is
after a top Turkish court last
predetermined by society’s
Friday annulled the 1934 decision
powerful elite and that’s why
to turn it into a museum. The US
hardly anything ever changes.
has expressed disappointment on
There are other fault lines like
Erdogan’s decision. France has
racial and lingual prejudices and
deplored it. Russia, with which
overpopulation but we will return
Turkey has bolstered ties in
to them another time. For now, we
recent times, regrets the move.
need to find a way to fix the above
Greece, which considers itself the
three or we will not progress an
heir to the Byzantine civilisation,
inch.
has condemned the ‘provocation’.
Published in The Express Tribune, August The World Council of Churches
1st, 2020 has called for reversing the
decision. And Unesco, which had
declared the structure a World
Heritage Site, ‘deeply regrets’ the
move.
What is a ‘matter of sovereignty’
www.nearpeer.org
for the Turkish president is a
‘narrow-minded act’ for much of
the world, particularly in the
West. The Hagia Sophia decision is
widely seen in the context of
Erdogan’s quest for Islamising
Turkey and burying the various
aspects of secular philosophy
incorporated into the government
after the abolition of the Seat of
Caliphate by Mustafa Kemal Pasha
in 1923. Erdogan’s Islamic
approach, coupled with his
growing influence in the region, is
what worries the world powers. By
turning Hagia Sophia back into a
mosque after nearly 550 years,
Erdogan seems to have stirred up
the hornets’ nest.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 13th,
2020
The plight of
minorities in
India
Indian democracy and secularism
are often touted as the essence of
the Indian Constitution, but the
persecution and vilification of
minorities in India has led to
questions about the basic bedrock
of India’s democratic credentials
and its secularism. Despite the
diversity of religions represented,
religious freedom in India has
deteriorated swiftly with the BJP
coming into power under Modi’s
leadership. Although much of the
discrimination is against Muslims,
violence against the Christian
community has greatly increased
as well. The recent report issued
by the US Commission on
International Religious Freedom
(USCIRF) has categorised India a
Tier 2 country because of
persistent conditions unfriendly
to religious freedom. Under Modi’s
dispensation, the situation for
Indian Muslims appears to be
deteriorating by the day.
Anti-conversion and anti-cow
slaughter laws represent a direct
threat to the secular claims of the
Indian constitution.
Instead of ensuring minorities
receive their due rights and
protection, the Indian parliament
led by the BJP government
approved the Citizenship
Amendment Act (CAA)—a fast
track to citizenship for
non-Muslim migrants from its
neighboring countries. The said
act has prompted widespread
protests in India as it offers
amnesty to non-Muslim illegal
migrants from Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, and Pakistan, but
Muslims are excluded from this
protection under CAA. The
passage of the Citizenship
(Amendment) Act, continued
enforcement of anti-conversion
and cow slaughtering laws and
last year, the Indian supreme
court’s controversial verdict on
Babri Masjid bears testimony to
the fact that Modi’s fascist
government has created a culture
of impunity for nationwide
campaigns of harassment and
violence against religious
minorities. Non-Hindu
communities are living in a
perpetual state of fear on account
of the discriminatory policies of
PM Modi’s administration and
tolerance of religious violence by
Hindu-supremacists against
vulnerable minorities at the state
level. In a country where people
define themselves by their
orthodox religious beliefs, where
does this leave the marginalised
communities? The mob lynching
of Muslims on suspicions of eating
beef; the inhuman lockdown of
Indian-Held Kashmir and the
recent communal riots in Indian
capital all point to the fact that
Indian state itself condones and
supports divisive policies. In
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In today’s India, the Hindutva
narrative prevails. This
dangerously growing trend is now
projecting the real image of the
world’s biggest democracy to the
international community.
The consensus among Indian
activists and political analysts is
that their society, under Mr Modi,
has become more toxically divided
between Hindu and Muslim,
between the upper and lower
castes, between men and women.
Congress leader Sonia Gandhi
condemned BJP’s anti-Muslim
drive and blamed Modi for
spreading the virus of communal
prejudice. Indian writer Arundhati
Roy accused Delhi for using social
unrest during the COVID-19 crisis
to encourage genocidal behaviour
towards Muslims. The spurious
allegations of corona Jihad are all
part of a sick pattern to strip
Indian Muslims of their rights. The
weather in India is hotter than
usual, and dry and dusty for the
defenseless Muslims.
Hindutva extremism is an
important source of violence in
contemporary India. BJP
governments at the federal and
state levels and RSS activists act
to implement their Hindutva
agenda. This agenda, which is
aimed at making secular India a
Hindu state and homogenising its
plural society, is being furthered
through a series of actions,
including the enactment of CAA
and implementation of National
Register of Citizens. In fact, Modi
has made India an unsafe place for
minorities. The rise of
ethno-nationalism, under BJP
leadership, is slowly unravelling
the secular democratic fabric of
Mahatma Gandhi’s homeland.
Modi instead, wants to promote
the Gujarat model of vicious
right-wing populist politics, which
sought to create and elevate a
Hindu majority out of a socially
and economically diverse
population to act as a voting bloc
for BJP.
The BJP leaders have equated the
peaceful protests against the
controversial law with treason and
called for the persecution of the
protestors. One of Modi’s cabinet
ministers, Paresh Verma swore
during election rally that the
protestors would be sent packing
within hours of BJP victory and
that if left unchecked they would
rape and kill. Members of the
ruling Hindutva clique hardly face
any reprimands from their
leadership and they can easily get
away with demonising Muslims
and other minorities. Threat to
Indian Muslims is no longer an
internal issue of India as Muslims
are facing an oppressive power
whose objectives towards its
victims are eliminating them and
challenging their survival. In that
respect, there is no difference
between Hitler’s attitude towards
the Jews and Modi’s attitude
towards the Muslims. The
comparison between Nazi
Germany and Hindutva is quite
apt. It’s the need of time for the
world community to hold India
accountable for all its misdeeds
and to take concrete steps to
make India change its communal
behaviour. India will never be
‘great’ until it protects its religious
minorities and their
constitutionally recognised
fundamental rights, including the
freedom to profess and propagate
religion.
Published in The Nation, August 1, 2020
FATF
restrictions
and economic
FATF sanctions via the Grey List
are in fact economic restrictions
and it is a well-known
internationally-recognised fact
that economic restrictions are
basically applied only to cripple
the economy of a country.
Pakistan has experienced direct
economic sanctions/restrictions
by the USA in the past. History
reveals that the US has abruptly
changed its policy towards
Pakistan and has imposed
sanctions with ill-motives. The
attitude of America can easily be
understood from 1988 to 2001,
which revolved around the
sanctions on Pakistan. During that
era, the US imposed many
sanctions on Pakistan to bring it
under pressure. Pakistan’s nuclear
programme, missile proliferation,
the saga of the Kashmir issue, and
continuing bilateral nuclear
standoff all became the cause of
Pak-US strained relations from
1988-2001. In 1974, the US
imposed an embargo and
sanctions on Pakistan to interrupt
its nuclear weapons programme.
In 1990 again, right after the
withdrawal of Soviet forces from
Afghanistan, the US banned the
delivery of military equipment
worth $368 million and 28 F-16
air-crafts to Pakistan for which
the country had already paid.
During the President Clinton era,
the Symington Amendment was
imposed on Pakistan which states
that uranium enhancement
technology and nuclear weapons
are not allowed to acquire or
develop. This amendment was
imposed due to the 1998 nuclear
tests of Pakistan. Currently,
Pakistan is under strict visa
restrictions by the US under the
Trump administration. The other
countries under US Visa
restrictions include Guyana in
2001, the Gambia in 2016,
Cambodia, Eritrea, Guinea, and
Sierra Leone in 2017, Burma and
Laos in 2018. The United States
has currently imposed
commercial, economic, and,
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financial embargo against Cuba.
The United States has also applied
economic, trade, scientific, and
military sanctions against Iran. In
2019, these sanctions led to a
sharp downturn in Iran’s economy,
pushing the value of its currency
to record lows, hiked inflation
rate, reduced foreign investments,
and triggering public protests.
When in 2006, North Korea
conducted its nuclear test, this
attracted global attention, and as
a result, sanctions were imposed
on the country from the United
Nations and many of its members,
including the United States. The
sanctions were aimed purely at
destabilisation of the economy of
North Korea and to stop its efforts
to develop nuclear weapons. This
time, the US, with the active
connivance of India, managed to
implement indirect sanctions via
FATF by bringing Pakistan in the
grey list. I term it a tactic to first
put Pakistan on the grey list and
then make efforts to put it on the
blacklist, which means heavy
sanctions on Pakistan.
When in 2006, North Korea
conducted its nuclear test, this
attracted global attention, and as
a result, sanctions were imposed
on the country from the United
Nations and many of its members,
including the United States. The
sanctions were aimed purely at
destabilisation of the economy of
North Korea and to stop its efforts
to develop nuclear weapons. This
time, the US, with the active
connivance of India, managed to
implement indirect sanctions via
FATF by bringing Pakistan in the
grey list. I term it a tactic to first
put Pakistan on the grey list and
then make efforts to put it on the
blacklist, which means heavy
sanctions on Pakistan.
Successive governments of ours
failed to get out of it as the right
strategy is not adopted with
effective international
countermeasures. Basically, it was
a deliberate attempt to prove our
status as a terrorism-sponsoring
state by attempting to establish
our abetment in money
laundering and then linking it to
terrorism. As a nation, we must
know that this is being done with
ulterior motives to destabilise
Pakistan by further crippling our
economy.
The term economic terrorism is
strictly defined to execute an
attempt at economic
destabilisation of a country,
region, or a group by a certain
group and it could be even a
hostile country. Economic
terrorism has been commonly
used by state or non-state actors
to secretly manipulate a nation’s
economy. In fact, this is part of the
modern fifth generation warfare
through proxy wars. In pursuit of
political aims, the economic
terrorism targets civilians of
nations, developing countries and
emerging economies is the prime
target of the hostile states and
groups. This is how sanctions
derail the economies of the
country as they are the most
affected by it because the slowing
of exports and imports collapses
the country’s ability to combat
poverty. Sometimes the developed
nations deliberately put sanctions
on developing nations in order to
use political moves against them
by bringing their economy to the
level of disintegration. Hence, the
increase in poverty and
destabilisation can cause revolts
among the population and
possible political destabilisation
which results in an even more
deteriorating situation just like we
are gearing into it by hostile
elements. On one side we are
under pressure by the IMF/World
Bank and USAID, and now, the
final economic bouncer has come
our way by FATF.
When FATF blacklists any country,
it is extremely likely that it will be
subject to economic sanctions and
other prohibitive measures by
FATF member states and other
international organisations. It is
now an established fact that
money laundering is a
trans-international crime and
hence only Pakistan cannot be
singled out and blamed for money
laundering whereas India, despite
international money laundering
reports has not been reprimanded
for their crimes against FATF and
UN charters.
In this context, Pakistan has
fought the ‘War on Terror’ at the
frontline as an ally of the US and
UN, and our country has suffered
heavily in terms of economy and
loss of human life. As an ally,
Pakistan has the right to expose
countries or state-actors, who
have tried to undermine the
struggle against terror by
indulging in money laundering in
pursuit of their hidden agendas
across the globe. I had earlier
written an article wherein I had
stated that it is unfortunate that
we sacrificed more than 70,000 of
our troops and civilians and yet
we are facing FATF. This is despite
the fact that Pakistan has been
taking numerous legal and
administrative measures against
terrorism. The trend and the
anti-Pakistan signals
demonstrated in the report clearly
show that FATF is not going to
take Pakistan out of the grey list
unless Pakistan and the US come
to terms on pending matters.
Pakistan will have to make extra
efforts for its economic survival.
The continuity of Pakistan being
in the FATF’s Grey List will bring
huge financial problems for
Pakistan which is already passing
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through the financial crisis. I hope
the Government of Pakistan will
take some sensible, pragmatic,
and evidence-based measures
before the FATF with the help of
China which has already warned
member countries not to
politicise FATF and not to use the
forum against Pakistan. China has
clearly stated, “China does not
want the FATF to be politicised by
any single country. There are
some countries which want to
include Pakistan in the blacklist.
They have political designs which
China is against.”
Pakistan must know that this is
not FATF which needs to be
satisfied but it is the USA that
needs to be handled diplomatically
by sorting our side issues with it.
The higher ups in government
must have a meeting at the
highest level with the US,
otherwise we will continue to
make amendments in our laws but
FATF will keep fattening its list of
demands and we may find
ourselves land in the blacklist over
some minor compliance. Hence,
we should handle the US, FATF,
and the international community
through our closely associated
countries. We have messed up on
our international matters before
including on the Kulbhushan
issue.
The US has complete hold over
FATF, therefore, whatever
measures or compliance are being
taken by the government will not
work unless we resolve the issue
of Afghanistan. India and the US
have a common agenda to get
Pakistan into the FATF blacklist.
I pray and wish that FATF accepts
our efforts and removes Pakistan
from its grey list.
Note: Opinions expressed are solely my
own and not necessarily to reflect the
views or opinions of my party
Published in The Nation, July 27, 2020
Modi’s
Kashmir
blunder
August 5 will be remembered in
history as the day when the BJP
government led by RSS-trained
and Hindutva-inspired Narendra
Modi robbed Kashmiris of their
special status and identity by
abrogating Article 370 and all
other associated legal provisions
such as Article 35-A.
One year down the line since that
fateful day, it makes sense to
analyse the broader implications
of what the political
commentators and keen watchers
of the region have described as
Modi’s Kashmir blunder not only
for Kashmir but for India as well
as Indo-Pakistan bilateral
relations.
Modi advanced very flimsy, and
self-serving reasons to justify the
“integration” of Jammu and
Kashmir into the Indian Union; it
did not find traction with the
Indians themselves, leave alone
Kashmiris and the world at large.
From the clichéd mantra of
stopping “cross-border terrorism
from Pakistan”, a refrain that has
outlived its usefulness, to the
‘promise’ of the ‘merger’ ushering
in a new era of economic
development for J&K region, the
prevailing situation, grim and
serious as it is in one of the
heavily militarized regions of the
world, makes for depressing
reading.
If anything, Modi’s reckless action
that flew in the face of
international law, the UN
resolutions and bilateral treaties
between India and Pakistan has
ended up achieving the opposite.
The sense of grand betrayal
among Kashmiris of all hues and
colours has been informed by the
experience of living in an
environment of massive rights
abuses, illegal detentions,
kidnappings and mass killings for
demanding their UN-sanctioned
right to self-determination.
Modi’s action brought all of
Kashmir on the same page with
the ‘hardliners’, with ‘reconcilable’
Kashmiri leaders convinced about
the real designs of the BJP-led
Hindu nationalist government.
Former CM Mahbooba Mufti told
the BBC in the wake of the
annexation of Jammu & Kashmir:
"They just want to occupy our land
and want to make this
Muslim-majority state like any
other state and reduce us to a
minority and disempower us
totally."
Former CM Mahbooba Mufti told
the BBC in the wake of the
annexation of Jammu & Kashmir:
"They just want to occupy our land
and want to make this
Muslim-majority state like any
other state and reduce us to a
minority and disempower us
totally."
From Farooq Abdullah to Ms
Mufti, who always advocated
political engagement with New
Delhi and spurned armed
resistance, Kashmiri leaders have
learned the hard way how it feels
to live under a brutal and
repressive regime.
Modi’s action brought the
international spotlight back on the
region. The issue had not been a
talking point for much of the
world that has failed to
differentiate between legitimate
armed struggle and terrorism
since 9/11, thanks to its obsession
with the latter. The international
media highlighted, probably for
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the first time since 1989, how
India presided over brutal
repression, igniting a renewed
global interest in a region that has
been on the periphery of global
attention.
From President Trump offering to
mediate over Kashmir to
President Xi Jinping ‘carefully
reading’ the situation in IOK to
President Erdogan and the
supreme Iranian leader calling on
India to respect the human rights
of Kashmiris, prominent American
politicians such as Bernie Sanders,
Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and
Democratic presidential nominee
Joe Biden have urged India to
restore the rights of the Kashmiris
and expressed their
disappointment with the
constitutional changes that, they
said, were designed to target
Muslims.
In the wake of August 5, the
Kashmir issue made it to the UN,
like never before, with the UNSC
meeting twice in a span of a few
months in closed doors to discuss
the explosive situation.
India was never subjected to this
level of global scrutiny. Its image
of being the largest democracy
has come in for severe criticism
with Indian leaders unable to
respond to the questions around
their actions in IOK, the
repressive lockdown and curfew
extended to months on end,
political leaders incarcerated and
an information blockade in place.
Other than arranging ‘managed’
tours of New Delhi-based
diplomats and international
delegations to the valley with
people confined to their homes,
India has failed to give any cogent
and convincing answers to an
increasing chorus of international
calls for lifting the lockdown and
restoring the normalcy.
Modi’s action in IOK has
practically closed all the doors to
bilateral dialogue. As explained
earlier in this space a few weeks
ago, there was a broader
consensus amongst Pakistan’s
political parties, government, and
the national security institutions
on the need for engagement with
India.
This consensus demonstrated
itself when former PM Nawaz
Sharif flew to New Delhi to attend
Modi’s swearing-in ceremony. And
also in Prime Minister Imran
Khan’s peace overtures to his
Indian counterpart, indicating his
government’s policy to root for
peace and offering his country’s
desire for regional stability.
The dismantling of secular
credentials undermines the very
idea of India as envisioned by its
founding fathers. August 5, 2019
has been followed by changes of
great import such as the
enactment of the Citizenship Act
that have deepened divides along
the lines of religious affiliations
and caused massive protests
across India.
What the world looks at as India’s
descent into chaos is more like its
fast-paced journey towards
becoming a fascist state powered
by popular, rightwing nationalism
that draws its identity from
religious exclusivity at the cost of
the principles of pluralism.
The dynamics unleashed have
injected greater volatility into the
region. The possibility of even a
tactical misunderstanding
spiraling into a full-fledged war,
leading to a nuclear holocaust, is
more real than before.
Given the reality of India-Pakistan
relations in the background of the
revocation of the constitutional
status of J&K, the world does not
afford to feign ignorance and
remain indifferent. Modi’s Kashmir
blunder has brought South Asia to
the precipice of a disaster.
Published in The News, August 1, 2020

Such a major shift in Pakistan’s

policy direction was caused by the
potency of the challenge of
Another sign of fascism being
legitimized is the increasing
Corruption has
only
kowtowing of state institutions to
the ‘supreme’ leader and the

homegrown terrorism as well as
the need for a stable regional
environment to pursue
socio-economic development,
something that suffered on
account of this country’s decade
and a half old fight against
different terrorist outfits.
In what appears to be an action
inspired by ideological
considerations, Modi and his junta
of hardcore ideologues repudiated
the peace overtures and embarked
on a potentially dangerous course
that will redefine the political and
strategic landscape of South Asia.
Pakistan has little incentive to
engage India in negotiations
unless space is made available to
Islamabad through the restoration
of the status quo ante in IOK. The
possibility of such a scenario
playing out remains non-existent,
given the fact that the annexation
of J&K is part of a larger project to
refashion India as a Hindu
country.
mushroomed.
ideology he espouses. Indian
human rights activists have noted
a slow but sure process of erosion
in the independence enjoyed by
NAB needs to be reformed into an efficient
the Indian judiciary and a
anti-corruption body.
discernible reluctance to confront
Prime Minister Imran Khan came
the government’s highly
to power promising to rid the
questionable policies vis-a-vis
nation of what he seemed to have
minorities.
recognised as its biggest flaw —
corruption. But two years down
The manner in which the Indian
the line the flaw seems to have
media has conducted itself in the
only deepened. Neither has the
aftermath of August 5, 2019 is a
government recovered any of the
case study in how the media can
‘looted’ money, nor has it
descend to the level of the ruling
succeeded in sending to jail the
party’s mouthpieces in violation of
‘looters’ who using their public
foundational principles of
position alleged to have made
journalism.
private pelf.
In the absence of any chance for
dialogue starting in the near There is also nothing much in
future with even routine terms of PTI government’s
diplomatic relations downgraded performance to set it apart from
and skirmishes along the LoC its predecessors. Its governance
becoming more frequent, Kashmir and management of the economy
has emerged as a South Asia’s — if not worse than of the PML-N
most dangerous nuclear –certainly has been no better.
flashpoint.

www.nearpeer.org
Still, had it not been for the
pathetic performance of NAB,
perhaps the government would
have completed the two years
without losing much of its
political goodwill.
The government let NAB continue
doing its job seemingly without
any pause or hindrance. But when
the Bureau relentlessly went after
the high-profile opposition
leadership, it appeared as if it was
doing a partisan job. The
government kept claiming publicly
that it had nothing to do with
what NAB was doing. But in the
same breath it kept contradicting
the claim by shouting from every
rooftop that it would not let the
‘chors and dacoos’ go unpunished.
The government let NAB continue
doing its job seemingly without
any pause or hindrance. But when
the Bureau relentlessly went after
the high-profile opposition
leadership, it appeared as if it was
doing a partisan job. The
government kept claiming publicly
that it had nothing to do with
what NAB was doing. But in the
same breath it kept contradicting
the claim by shouting from every
rooftop that it would not let the
‘chors and dacoos’ go unpunished.
But as the time passed nothing
positive that could be held as a
grand success of government’s
anti-corruption campaign
emerged from the NAB’s court
rooms. Increasing resort to media
trials to cover up the Bureau’s
investigative and prosecution
weaknesses started yielding
counter-productive results. Even
those among the media persons
who had willingly joined the media
trial campaign as some kind of
religious crusade, started
questioning the government’s
single-minded pursuit of the
corruption campaign against the
opposition to the neglect of even
governance and economic
management. Meanwhile, right
under its very nose a new jumma
bazaar of mega corruption was
mushrooming, being indulged in
allegedly by some of the
prominent members of the
coalition government itself.
NAB was not only pursuing a
partisan policy but was actually
defending it publicly saying ‘we go
by the case not by the face’.
Meanwhile, some of the
observations made by Supreme
and High Courts in their
judgments in bail cases actually
cast serious doubts about the
workings of NAB. These
observations accused the real
rulers of the country of using the
Bureau for political engineering.
Generally, white collar crimes are
difficult to solve. In fact, it
becomes almost an
insurmountable challenge when
one tries to prove these cases
beyond a shadow of doubt in a
court of law, no matter how
strong the evidence. It is like
trying to follow the footprints of
someone who had walked on ice.
That is perhaps why the
performance of NAB has remained
so shoddy since it was set up in
1999. The low quality professional
standards of the Bureau’s
prosecution and investigation
personnel have also added
considerably to the Bureau’s
shoddiness. And because of the
mindless pursuit of cases with
dubious evidence, the Bureau had,
on the one hand, brought to a
virtual standstill the civil
administration and on the other
seriously disrupted the business
activities as both civil servants and
businessmen were allegedly being
blackmailed into ‘singing’ against
the arrested politicians.
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When a society practices liberal
democracy along with free market
economy, it becomes almost
impossible to keep the incidence
of white collar crime under
control through the normal laws.
Indeed, because of the elusive
nature of such crimes it has been
universally recognised that
preemption rather tackling them
after the fact was perhaps a more
prudent approach to minimise
their occurrence. In civilised
societies white collar crimes are
kept under control by setting up
statutory regulatory bodies
autonomous of their respective
ministries and at the same time by
enlarging space for the
development of a strong
parliament, a truly independent
judiciary and a genuinely fearless
media.
Of course, in the meanwhile, NAB
needs to be reformed into an
efficient anti-corruption body and
its top personnel replaced with
professionally competent ones
and quickly too so that the Bureau
refrains from arresting the
accused without evidence that
would stand in a court of law.
Published in The Express Tribune, August
1st, 2020
Locusts: drone
remedy
After eating humble pie on
moon-sighting issue, Fawad found
something to celebrate
When our science and technology
minister announced on Friday that
Pakistan has joined the league of
nations making their own drones,
we had little reason to discard the
statement as his usual bombast
and posturing. The country has
indeed achieved this milestone in
a highly competitive and technical
field. Pulling off this feat goes to
rectify the impression that the
country lags behind in the
technology sector. After ‘Made in
Pakistan’ ventilators, the Ministry
of Science and Technology with
the cooperation of the private
sector has completed the process
of manufacturing drones for
elimination of locusts and assist
police surveillance.
“Initially, 30 drones will be used to
spray in fields for locust control as
effective tool against the insect as
spraying through big airplanes in
the field is not possible,” Federal
Minister Chaudhry Fawad Hussain
said while talking to the media in
Islamabad. He said that 25 drones
can spray against locust in a big
area at a time, and around 25
drones can easily spray on 10 to 20
acres of land. The minister also
examined the drones and
witnessed them conducting spray.
“Besides agriculture, drones can
be used by police for surveillance
also,” he said, adding that drone
technology would also be used for
surveillance on Islamabad and by
Motorway police, and the use of
drones in Karachi would help
reduce the increasing street
crimes.
The National Radio and
Telecommunication Corporation
has already been tasked to focus
on manufacturing drones,
according to the federal minister.
Before the coronavirus outbreak,
he said, “we were not producing
any of the equipment on our own
– be it gloves, masks or protective
shields, but now the country is
capable enough of manufacturing
99% of the medical equipment to
deal with this challenge.” After
eating humble pie on
moon-sighting issue, as his
‘scientific’ forecast about Eid
falling on July 31 proved untrue,
Fawad has found something to
celebrate about.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 26,
2020.
Time to bury
the hatchet
The changing political dynamics in
the region offer a good opportunity
for Pakistan and Bangladesh
Pakistan and Bangladesh now
appear to realise that five decades
are more than enough for the two
estranged neighbours – which
otherwise have a lot in common –
to bury the hatchet and be friends.
The PMs of the two countries,
Imran Khan and Sheikh Hasina,
held a telephonic conversation on
Wednesday in what’s indeed a rare
diplomatic event in the hostile
bilateral relationship. The tele-talk
came on the heels of a recent
meeting between Pakistan’s envoy
to Dhaka and the Bangladeshi
foreign minister.
Pakistan and Bangladesh now
appear to realise that five decades
are more than enough for the two
estranged neighbours – which
otherwise have a lot in common –
to bury the hatchet and be friends.
The PMs of the two countries,
Imran Khan and Sheikh Hasina,
www.nearpeer.org
held a telephonic conversation on
Wednesday in what’s indeed a rare
diplomatic event in the hostile
bilateral relationship. The tele-talk
came on the heels of a recent
meeting between Pakistan’s envoy
to Dhaka and the Bangladeshi
foreign minister.
The meeting and the phonic
contact between the two PMs can
mark a turnaround in the relations
between the two countries which
have been historically tense due to
the bitter memories of the 1971
events. The relations ebbed to
new lows in 2016 when Hasina’s
government tried and executed
several leaders of Bangladesh
Jamaat-e-Islami over war crimes
in 1971. To Pakistan, the cases were
politically-motivated and violated
a 1974 trilateral agreement. The
National Assembly, thus, passed a
unanimous resolution the same
year condemning the execution of
JI leaders.
Before that, Narendra Modi’s
election as Indian PM caused
further distancing between
Pakistan and Bangladesh. Modi
took full advantage of Hasina’s
mistrust in Pakistan and added
fuel to the fire. However, the
Modi’s recent policies have
potentially reversed the course.
The controversial citizenship act
passed by India last year triggered
massive protests in Bangladesh so
much so that Modi had to cancel
his visit to the country in March.
Besides, the China factor also
served to detach Bangladesh from
India, like it did in the case of Iran
recently by offering economic
benefits.
The changing political dynamics
in the region offer a good
opportunity for Pakistan and
Bangladesh to revisit their
troubled ties. The two sides
should start off with
people-to-people exchanges at
every possible level.
Cricket contests can serve as a
good CBM. Showbiz personalities
like veteran filmstar Shabnam and
renowned songstress Runa Laila
can also play a role. There is,
however, the need to avoid
unnecessary hype so as to
disallow spoilers to undermine
efforts for a diplomatic thaw. Let’s
hope PM Hasina will accept PM
Imran’s invitation to visit Pakistan
and mark the beginning of a new
era in the bilateral ties.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 24,

2020.

www.nearpeer.org
 Past paper
General Ability
& Past Paper
MCQs
ability
General
GENERAL ABILITY

The cost price of 20 articles is the same as the Two numbers are respectively 20% and 50% more
selling price of x articles. If the profit is 25%, then than a third number. The ratio of the two numbers
the value of x is: is:

A. 15 A. 2:5
B. 16 B. 3:5
C. 18 C. 4:5
D. 25 D. 6:7

Answer: Option B Answer: Option C

In a certain store, the profit is 320% of the cost. If Seats for Mathematics, Physics and Biology in a
the cost increases by 25% but the selling price school are in the ratio 5 : 7 : 8. There is a proposal to
remains constant, approximately what percentage increase these seats by 40%, 50% and 75%
of the selling price is the profit? respectively. What will be the ratio of increased
seats?
A. 30%
B. 70% A. 2:3:4
C. 100% B. 6:7:8
D. 250% C. 6:8:9
D. None of these
Answer: Option B
Answer: Option A
The percentage profit earned by selling an article
for Rs. 1920 is equal to the percentage loss incurred A sum of money is to be distributed among A, B, C, D
by selling the same article for Rs. 1280. At what in the proportion of 5 : 2 : 4 : 3. If C gets Rs. 1000
price should the article be sold to make 25% profit? more than D, what is B's share?

A. Rs. 2000 A. Rs. 500

B. Rs. 2200 B. Rs.1500
C. Rs. 2400 C. Rs. 2000
D. None D. None of these

Answer: Option A Answer: Option C

Sam purchased 20 dozen of toys at the rate of Rs. The H.C.F. of two numbers is 23 and the other two
375 per dozen. He sold each one of them at the rate factors of their L.C.M. are 13 and 14. The larger of
of Rs. 33. What was his percentage profit? the two numbers is:

A. 3.5 A. 276
B. 4.5 B. 299
C. 5.6 C. 322
D. 6.5 D. 345

Answer: Option C Answer: Option C

Six bells commence tolling together and toll at Answer: Option A
intervals of 2, 4, 6, 8 10 and 12 seconds respectively.
In 30 minutes, how many times do they toll What is the probability of getting a sum 9 from two
together? throws of a dice?

A. 4 A. 1/6
B. 10 B. 1/8
C. 15 C. 1/9
D. 16 D. 1/12

Answer: Option D Answer: Option C

The product of two numbers is 4107. If the H.C.F. of

these numbers is 37, then the greater number is:

A. 101
B. 107
C. 111
D. 185

Answer: Option C

Tickets numbered 1 to 20 are mixed up and then a

ticket is drawn at random. What is the probability
that the ticket drawn has a number which is a
multiple of 3 or 5?

A. 1/2
B. 2/5
C. 8/15
D. 9/20

Answer: Option D

A bag contains 2 red, 3 green and 2 blue balls. Two

balls are drawn at random. What is the probability
that none of the balls drawn is blue?

A. 10/21
B. 11/21
C. 2/7
D. 5/7
PAST PAPERS MCQs COMPILATION
Current Affairs

1. Ease of doing business is an index which is D. None of these

published by the

A. World Bank 8. Operation Zarb-e-Azab was started on

B. International Monetary Fund
C. United Nation A. 24 April 2014
D. World Economic Forum B. 29 April 2014
C. 15 June 2014
2. How many members are there in the United D. None of these
Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)?
9. Gymnophobia is the fear of
A. 17
B. 27 A. Nudity
C. 37 B. Gyms
D. 47 C. Hotels
D. None of these
3. “Commonwealth Day” is annually celebrated on
10. The book “Higher than Hopes” is the biography
A. 1st March of
B. 31st March
C. First Wednesday of March A. Nelson Mandela
D. Second Monday of March B. Henry S. Commager
C. Bill Clinton
4. The WTO is the successor to D. None of these

A. GATT 11. Who was the founder of America’s Republican

B. World Bank Party?
C. IMF
D. ECO A. Alexander Hamilton
B. Franklin D. Roosevelt
5. NAFTA is an agreement signed by C. George Washington
A. Canada D. None of these
B. US
C. Mexico 12. British Government sold Kashmir to Maharaja
D. All of these Gulab Singh in

6. “UDHR Day” or “Universal Declaration of Human A. 1846

Rights Day” is observed on: B. 1845
C. 1843
A. Dec 10 D. None of these
B. Nov 8
C. Sep 12 13. Who was the first Chief Minister of Baluchistan
D. Jan 14 from 1972 to 13 February 1973?

7. Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah fixed his A. Sher Bux Muree

salary as the Governor-General of Pakistan at B. Sardar Attaullah Khan Mengal
C. Mir Ghulam Qadir Khan
A. Rs. 1 D. None of these
B. Rs. 3
C. Rs. 4
14. Which among the following countries releases a
higher amount of Carbon Dioxide into the atmo-
sphere?

(A) Canada
(B) Russia
(C) China
(D) None of these

15. East India Company was established in

(A) 1604
(B) 1603
(C) 1600
(D) None of these
General Science and Ability

1) The biggest planet in our solar system is d. Tadhkira

e. None of these
a. Venus
b. Pluto (7) Which of the following layers make radio trans-
c. Jupiter mission possible?
d. None of these
a. Troposphere
2) The atmosphere of the moon consists of b. Ionosphere
c. Mesosphere
a. 90% Hydrogen, 10% Nitrogen d. Stratosphere
b. 80%Nitrogen, 20% Hydrogen e. None of these
c. 60% Nitrogen, 40%inert gases
d. None of these (8) Which of the following explains the reason why
there is no total eclipse of the sun?
3) The planet Mercury completes one rotation
around the sun is a. Size of the earth in relation to that of moon
b. The orbit of the moon around earth
a. 88 days c. The direction of rotation of the earth around sun
b. 365 days d. Area of the sun covered by the moon
c. 98 days e. None of these
d. 60 days
e. None of these (9) Television signals are converted into light signals
by:
4) Sun is a:
a. Optical fiber
a. Planet b. Transistor
b. Comet c. Decoder
c. Satellite d. Photo diode
d. Aurora e. None of these
e. None of these
(10) Where do most of Asteroids lie?
5) An eclipse of the sun occurs when
a. In asteroid belt between the orbits of Mars and
a. The moon is between the sun and the earth Jupiter
b. The sun is between the earth and the moon b. In asteroid belt between the orbits of Mars and
c. The earth is between the sun and the moon Venus
d. The earth casts its shadow on the moon c. In asteroid belt between the orbits of Jupiter and
e. None of these. Venus
d. Everywhere in the sky
6) Name the famous book of Ibn-Sina in which he e. None of these
discussed human physiology and medicine:
(11) The number of spark plugs needed in a diesel
a. Al-Qanoon engine is
b. Al-Masudi
c. New Renaissance a. 2
b. 3 d. The rise in temperature
c. 0 e. Rain forests
d. 4
e. None of these (17) A moderator is used in a nuclear reactor in order
to:
(12) The half-life of a radioactive element is 8-days.
How long it takes to reduce it from 10 mg to 5 mg?
a. Accelerate the neutrons
b. Slow down the speed of the neutrons
a. 4 days
c. Increase the number of elections
b. 12 days
d. Decrease the number of electrons
c. 16 days
e. None of these
d. 8 days
(18) Sedimentary rocks are:
e. None of these
(13) The term ‘Blue Shift’ is used to indicate:
a. Porous
a. Doppler effect in which an object appears bluer b. Hard
when it is moving towards the observer or observ- c. Rough
er is moving towards the object. d. Brittle
b. Turning a star from white to blue e. Volcanic
c. In future sun would become blue
d. Blackhole was blue at its start
e. None of these

(14) Kilowatt-hour is a unit of: (19) Which one of the following is a non-metallic
mineral?
a. Power
b. Electric Current a. Manganese
c. Energy b. Magnesium
d. Time c. Gypsum
e. None of these d. Bauxite
e. None of these
(15) Fuel used in a Fast Breeder Reactor is:
(20) The ozone layer prevents the following radia-
a. Uranium Oxide tion from entering the atmosphere:
b. Uranium Plutonium carbide
c. Uranium Plutonium Oxide a. Infra-red
d. Uranium thorium Oxide b. Ultraviolet
e. None of these c. X-rays
d. Gamma rays
(16) Monsoon is caused by: e. None of these

a. Seasonal reversal of winds (21) The phenomenon of Aurora Borealis, the display
b. Revolution of earth of red and green lights in the northern hemisphere
c. Movement of clouds is due to radiations from:
 a. seedless fruits
a. Ionosphere b. parthenogenesis fruits
b. Troposphere c. parthenocarpic fruits
c. Mesosphere d. placental fruits
d. Stratosphere e. Organic fruits
e. None of these
(22) Yeast is used in making bread because it (26) An animal which captures and readily kills
produces: living animals for its food is called:

a. Carbon dioxide a. Parasite

b. Sugar b. Scavenger
c. Bacteria c. Predator
d. Oxygen d. Mammal
e. None of these e. None of these

(23) Oasis is associated with: (27) In a railway track, two rails are joined end to
end with a gap in between them because:
a. Glaciers
b. Desert a. Steel can be saved
c. Islands b. Accidents due to contraction in winter can be
d. Volcanoes avoided
e. Fertile land c. Air gaps are necessary for bearing the weight of
running train
(24) Quartz crystal in quartz watches work on the d. Accidents due to expansion in summer can be
principle called: avoided
e. All of these
a. Photoelectric effect
b. Stark effect
c. Thermionic effect
d. Piezo-electric effect
e. None of these

(25) The fruits without seed, like banana, are called:

Pakistan Affairs

1. Name the saint, who first came to Lahore.

6. Who called the "spiritual guide" as shopkeepers?
a. Ali Makhdum Hujwari
a. Shaikh Ahmed Sirhindi
b. Shaikh Ismail
b. Shah Waliullah
c. Data Gunj Baksh
c. Sir Syed Ahmed Khan
d. None of these.
d. None of these
2. Ghiyas-ud-din Balban declared himself king of
7. When Nadva-tul-Ulema came into being?
Delhi Sultanate in the year

a.1873
a.1166
b.1883
b.1266
c.1893
c.1366
d. None of these (1884)
d. None of these

8. Who initiated the cult of Shivaji against the

Muslims of India?

a. Bal Ganga dher tilak

3. Who founded Daulatabad and shifted the capital
b. Bennerji
of Delhi Sultanate?
c. Pandit madan mohan
d. None of these
a. Ghiyas-ud-din Tughluq
b. Muhammad Tughluq
9. Who led Simla deputation in 1906?
c. Feroze shah Tughluq
d. Mone of these
a. Sir Agha Khan
b. Sir Syed Ahmed Khan
4. Who set up the chain of justice to redress the
c. Nawab Muhsin ul Mulk.
grievances of oppressed people?
d. None of these
10.when Nehru committee was constituted to
a. Zaheer-ud-din Babar
propose the future constitution of India?
b. Shahab-ud-din Shahjahan
c. Aurangzeb Alimgir
a. Feb 1927
d. None of these
b. Feb 1928
c. Feb 1929
5.who was known in history as Mujaddid Alf Thani,
d. None of these
the reformer of second millennium?

Compiled by Atoofah Azmat, Student Counselor @nearpeer.org

a.Shaikh Ahmed Sirhindi
b. Shah Waliullah
c. Sir Syed Ahmed Khan
d. None of these