Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01772-6
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ORIGINAL PAPER

A literature-based study on the water–energy–food nexus

for sustainable development
José Baltazar Salgueirinho Osório de Andrade Guerra1,2 • Issa Ibrahim Berchin1 • Jessica Garcia1 •
Samara da Silva Neiva1 • Ana Valquiria Jonck1 • Rafael Avila Faraco1 • Wellyngton Silva de Amorim1 •

João Marcelo Pereira Ribeiro1

 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020

Abstract
The water-energy-food (WEF) Nexus encompasses complex and interdependent relations and its examination requires content-
specific concepts and approaches. Managing, conserving and maximizing the potential of each component is a major global
concern considering the many challenges to be faced in the 21st century. The aim of this study was to identify, in the literature,
recommendations for public policy, research and development, and practices for the WEF Nexus, aimed at promoting sus-
tainable development considering stochastic and risk elements. In this regard, this paper presents a literature review of the
contribution scientific studies have made toward better understanding the importance of the WEF Nexus in the context of
sustainable development. Research indicates that the WEF Nexus cannot be discussed as independent sectors, highlighting the
need for integrated policies and inter-sectoral and international cooperation to promote sustainable development. Therefore, the
effective management of the WEF Nexus requires science-based data using risk and stochastic elements to assist policy and
decision-making. Thus, in a situation of rapid global changes, decision-making processes for this Nexus must be assisted by
multidisciplinary, multi-stakeholder and cross-sectoral approaches, aimed at avoiding the unintended effects of a single sector
approach (e.g., energy policies stimulating hydroelectricity production need to consider factors affecting conservation and food
production). With regard to the effects of climate change on the WEF Nexus, risk and stochastic elements must be considered
when developing a science-based model for the sustainable management of WEF resources.

Keywords Water–energy–food nexus
Climate change
Stochastic elements
Global risk
Sustainable development

1 Introduction

Global population growth coupled with economic and

environmental changes is increasing the demand for natural
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this resources, whilst promoting competition between water,
article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01772-6) con-
tains supplementary material, which is available to autho- energy and food (de Andrade Guerra et al. 2017; Amorim
rized users.
Rafael Avila Faraco
& José Baltazar Salgueirinho Osório de Andrade Guerra rafael.faraco@unisul.br
baltazar.guerra@unisul.br
Wellyngton Silva de Amorim
Issa Ibrahim Berchin wellyngton.amorim@gmail.com
issa.berchin@gmail.com
João Marcelo Pereira Ribeiro
Jessica Garcia joaomarceloprdk@gmail.com
jessica.sgarcia@outlook.com
1
Samara da Silva Neiva Centre for Sustainable Development (GREENS), University
samara.neiva@unisul.br of Southern Santa Catarina (Unisul), Florianopolis, Brazil
2
Ana Valquiria Jonck Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural
anajonck15@gmail.com Resource Governance (C-EENRG), University of Cambridge,
Cambridge, UK

123

et al. 2018). This competition between water, energy and
food is causing land-use changes and environmental dis-
ruption by increasing greenhouse gas emissions, intensi-
fying climate and environmental changes, causing
environmental injustice and limiting the earth’s carrying
capacity (Schlör et al. 2017; Bayley et al. 2011; Ozturk
2015). The increasing occurrence of natural disasters, lack
of fresh water (Damerau et al. 2016), intensification of food
crises and shortages in energy supply (Scott et al. 2011;
Caniato et al. 2017) are increasing the need for research
that contributes to confronting these challenges, encour-
aging the maintenance of the world’s natural resources and
providing reliable data to assist decision and policy mak-
ing. An integrative strategy to approach water, energy and
food (WEF) resources is essential in developing a sus-
tainable and secure future for all (Gulati et al. 2013).
Natural resources are limited, but they are essential to
human survival and development. Human actions are
degrading the environment and exhausting natural resour-
ces at an unprecedented rate, and the population is
exceeding the Earth’s carrying capacity (Howarth and
Monasterolo 2016). Cooperation between WEF systems
plays a crucial role in meeting future resource demands and
challenges, where the opportunities for mutual benefits
offered by the three sectors are directly provided by the
availability of natural and human resources and their dis-
tribution (Al-Saidi et al. 2017).
The increasing interconnection between resources,
generated by high consumption levels, crises in the supply
chains and the failure of sector-oriented management
strategies, reinforces the need for an integrated WEF
approach (Al-Saidi and Elagib 2017). The WEF Nexus
approach presents probabilistic stochastic characteristics,
that is, random events can have non-random consequences.
The interaction between the three systems requires the
optimization and appropriate allocation of available
resources, as well as the creation of policies that can be
created for resource security.
The WEF Nexus approach aims to promote a rational,
efficient and balanced management of natural resources
and socioeconomic systems, assisted by scientific data
(Flammini et al. 2017). The WEF Nexus management
strategy is directly related to global risks, such as extreme
weather events, inappropriate urban planning, large-scale
terrorist attacks, global and regional governance failures
and the inability to adapt to climate change and demands
for infrastructure. These risks affect the management of
water, energy and food resources, bringing not only local
but also global risks, highlighting the interdependencies
between risks, resource management and the uncertainties
of the international situation (Amorim et al. 2018).
The aim of this study was to identify, in the literature,
recommendations for public policy, research and
123
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
development, and practices for the WEF Nexus, consider-
ing the stochastic elements and the mitigation of global
risks and their adaptation to promote sustainable develop-
ment. The first section after the introduction describes the
methodology applied in the research, which was based on a
bibliometric review of the literature.
The second section introduces and contextualizes the
reader regarding the need to create measures, strategies and
studies that promote better management of the WEF
Nexus, so that environmental, economic and social chal-
lenges can be overcome. The third section is followed by a
review of the literature, which was carried out through
bibliometric research. The inclusion of articles was based
on the reading of abstracts to identify those which pre-
sented relevant contributions related to the subject of the
research. In this section, the main terms and themes asso-
ciated with the WEF Nexus, such as climate change, sus-
tainable development and risks, are discussed.
The fourth section reports selected case studies from the
different continents (excluding Antarctica), aimed at
allowing each region to be represented, further enhancing
the consistency and impact of the study. In the fifth section,
the results and discussion are presented, with recommen-
dations for adaption to climate change and ways to mitigate
its impact on WEF resources, specifically through public
policies, research and development, and appropriate prac-
tices. The final section presents the concluding remarks, an
evaluation of the results and final recommendations of this
study, including how to manage WEF resources, focusing
on efficiency and reducing the competitiveness between the
Nexus components, aimed at providing WEF security and
sustainable development. Based on the literature, the rec-
ommendations include: (i) improved management of nat-
ural resources, using innovations in technologies and
techniques to increase the resilience of critical infrastruc-
ture; (ii) increased engagement of multiple stakeholders to
provide a more effective approach to increase the synergies
of the WEF Nexus; (iii) the use of probabilistic analysis
and stochastic models to obtain reliable data to assist
decision-making related to risk management; (iv) greater
investment in research and development to create innova-
tions, technologies, techniques and policies that are sci-
ence-based and coordinated among multiple sectors; and
(v) increased interconnection and policy coordination
among economic sectors, aimed at avoiding unintentional
effects.
2 Methods
A literature review was conducted using the scoping study
method proposed by Arksey and O’Malley (2005), and
further corroborated by Levac et al. (2010). The scoping
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
study was adopted because the aim of this review was to
identify in the literature recommendations for policy,
research and development, and practices for the WEF
Nexus. The focus was to take into account stochastic ele-
ments, the mitigation of global risks and adaptations to
promote sustainable development, rather than seeking to
answer a specific research question (Arksey and O’Malley
2005; Levac et al. 2010). Considering the array of themes
involved in the WEF Nexus and that this is an emerging
field of research, a scoping study is appropriate. Therefore,
this review involved the following five stages of a scoping
study.
2.1 Stage 1: Identifying the research question
The research question formulated was: What recommen-
dations have been made in the scientific literature regarding
policy, research and development, and practices for the
WEF Nexus considering the stochastic elements and the
mitigation of global risks and their adaptation to promote
sustainable development? This research question is further
addressed in the next section.
2.2 Stage 2: Identifying relevant studies
In this stage, the search for studies in the literature was
based on the Scopus, Science Direct, Web of Science and
Google Scholar databases. Due to their similarities, Sci-
ence Direct and Scopus were analyzed with the same cri-
teria, while Web of Science and Google Scholar were
analyzed individually. As in systematic literature reviews,
the study adopted inclusion and exclusion criteria, favoring
breadth rather than depth in the selection. Thus, the Boo-
lean expression was used in this study (water AND energy
AND food) AND (Nexus OR security) AND (sustainab*
OR climate change).
The Boolean expression was used to map papers that
address the relations between WEF even though the word
‘‘Nexus’’ was not explicitly used, broadening the search for
papers using the word ‘‘security’’ and focusing on sus-
tainable development or climate change. Regarding the
inclusion and exclusion criteria considered for Science
Direct and Scopus databases, these were a scientific pub-
lication (peer reviewed papers published in journals),
written in English, with the Boolean expression appearing
in the ‘‘Title, Abstract, Keywords’’.
For the Web of Science, the study used the same Boo-
lean expression (water AND energy AND food) AND
(Nexus OR security) AND (sustainab* OR climate change)
to search for relevant papers.
In the Google Scholar database, the following combi-
nations were used to select the papers: ‘‘Sustainable
Development’’ AND ‘‘Nexus Food-Water-Energy’’ OR
‘‘Nexus Food-Energy-Water’’ OR ‘‘Nexus Water-Energy-
Food’’ OR ‘‘Nexus Water-Food-Energy’’ OR ‘‘Nexus
Energy-Water-food’’ OR ‘‘Nexus Energy-Food-Water’’.
For the inclusion and exclusion criteria, due to the limita-
tions of the Google Scholar database in this regard, ‘‘ci-
tations’’ and ‘‘patents’’ were eliminated, and the ‘‘any
time’’ option was selected for the period of analysis.
2.3 Stage 3: Study selection
After the pre-selection of the papers applying the inclusion
and exclusion criteria in the searches in the databases and
the revision of the abstracts, 347 papers were reviewed and
91 were subjectively selected for the analysis according to
their suitability for this study, based on relevance with
regard to the research question. These papers were then
organized in an Excel sheet and 27 papers were excluded
due to duplication. Thirty-nine references were subse-
quently added, that is, 6 international declarations and
reports, 6 references to support the method and 27 scientific
papers.
It is important to note that the papers identified and
selected for this study do not include all the existing lit-
erature on the WEF Nexus (which has increased signifi-
cantly in recent years), but represent the literature relevant
to addressing the research question (a similar approach was
used by Jandu et al. 2015; den Broeder et al. 2017; Pope
et al. 2017; Bond et al. 2018).
2.4 Stage 4: Charting the data
The software Excel was used to organize the data on the
papers selected. This data was organized in columns by
year, publication title, authors’ names, journal title, number
of citations on Google Scholar and the concepts and defi-
nitions attributed to the WEF Nexus and their approaches.
2.5 Stage 5: Collating, summarizing
and reporting the results (analysis
and recommendations)
The papers selected supported the literature review, pro-
viding the concepts and definitions associated with the
WEF Nexus, as well as the dimensions it presents. This
stage was aligned with a qualitative analysis of the litera-
ture selected, identifying elements that support the cate-
gorization of recommendations for policy, research and
development, and practices (as suggested by Arksey and
O’Malley 2005; Levac et al. 2010). Table 1 provides def-
initions of the key concepts considered in this study.
The definitions in Table 1 relate to the relevance of
these concepts to this study, serving as a structural basis to
obtain a better understanding of the results and avoid
123

Table 1 Key concepts derived from the review
Authors
Vuuren et al. (2015); Rasul and Sharma (2016); Rasul
(2016); UN (2018)
Faria et al. (2016), Hussien et al. (2017), Karabulut et al.
(2017), IPCC (2018)
Tirado et al. (2010), Rasul and Sharma (2016)
Lawford et al. (2013), Al-Saidi and Elagib (2017)
Sharmina et al. (2016), Schlör et al. (2017)
Mohtar and Lawford (2016)
Rasul (2014), Endo et al. (2017), Howarth and
Monasterolo (2017), Hussien et al. (2017), Simpson
and Jewitt (2019)
Olsson (2013), Lele et al. (2013), FAO (2014a)
Olsson (2013), Lele et al. (2013), FAO (2014a)
Olsson (2013), Lele et al. (2013), FAO (2014a)
Maskery and Shinbrot (2005), Deodatis (1990), Brenner
and Bucher (1992)
Luhmann (1990), Smith and Irwin (2006), Krimsky and
Golding (1992)
divergent concepts or definitions. The following section
details the literature review based on the articles selected in
this section.
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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Concept Definitions
Sustainable Development that meets the needs of the present without
development compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own
needs. Therefore, sustainable development ensures WEF security
for all people at all times, particularly in the context of global
economic, demographic and environmental change, thus,
promoting inclusive and equitable development
Climate Climate variations that persist for an extended period and may be
change identified by persistence and trends in variables such as
temperature, precipitation and other weather events
Adaptation The continuous implementation of existing knowledge and
technology in response to changes in specific circumstances
Governance Represents a system model that is context-sensitive and adapted to
local circumstances. Good governance represents the optimal use
of resources and tools, by governments and/or companies, to
increase resilience and promote sustainable development
Resilience Represents the capacity to endure and resist crises and challenges,
evolving and adapting to circumstances. A measure of the
persistence of systems and of their ability to absorb change and
disturbance, while preserving their characteristics
Community of Refers to a group of people with a common goal and/or
Practice characteristics who debate and share data, knowledge, experiences
and best practices regarding certain issues or challenges, creating
solutions for sustainable development and offering good
governance models. Thus, when composed by multiple
stakeholders, it can provide a powerful governance tool for
sustainable development
WEF Nexus The WEF Nexus represents the complex interrelationships and
interdependencies between systems. It is considered a security
challenge and good governance of resources is essential for
sustainable development
Water security Exists when sufficient amounts of good quality fresh water are
available for human consumption (drinking and sanitation),
agricultural activities and other productive sectors. Therefore,
water security influences food and energy systems
Food security Exists when all people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious
food. Food security requires physical availability and economic
access to food, as well as stability of the supply. It relies on both
water and energy security
Energy Exists when all people have uninterrupted access to affordable
security modern energy sources. Energy security influences both food and
water systems, but it is also affected by water insecurity
Stochastic A stochastic system can be defined as a structural system that uses
elements uncertainty as a base for analysis. It refers to elements that cannot
be predicted from available data and contains random behaviors
Risk elements The term ‘‘risk’’ denotes the possibility that an undesirable state or
reality (adverse effects) may occur as a consequence of natural
events or human actions. The main elements related to the
prevention of risks are identification, mitigation and reduction
3 Literature Review
The WEF Nexus approach gained international attention in
2011 at the World Economic Forum and the Bonn Nexus
Conference (Hoff 2011; Simpson and Jewitt 2019), both
from the point of view of security (Biggs et al. 2015). The
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Nexus concept deals with content-specific issues, which
results in many variations according to the goals of dif-
ferent approaches, sectors and regions (Ringler et al. 2013;
Endo et al. 2017; Yang et al. 2016). The Nexus approach
seeks a more coherent use of WEF resources, considering
the interconnections across sectors (Hoff 2011; FAO
2014a, b; Sanders and Masri 2016). However, the WEF
Nexus concept needs to be clearly defined and measurable
in order to be consistent and avoid narrowness (Wichelns
2017; Chirisa and Bandauko 2015).
The complex interrelations between the individual WEF
systems are represented by the WEF Nexus, and they
constitute a security challenge which is linked to sustain-
able development. Given this context, the development of
an integrative strategy to study and address WEF resources
as interdependent sectors for human survival is at the heart
of the Nexus (Bieber et al. 2018; Spiegelberg et al. 2015;
Bhaduri et al. 2015). Multidisciplinary and multi-sectoral
approaches to finding solutions to enhance the resilience of
societies in dealing with the WEF Nexus in the light of
climate and other environmental changes are essential
(Spiegelberg et al. 2015; Howarth and Monasterolo
2016, 2017; Kurian 2016; Yang et al. 2016).
The WEF Nexus is also directly related to global risks,
which are systemic risks involving part of an interdepen-
dent system, where there is a lack of probability that the
whole system can be affected accordingly, since all parts
are connected (Amorim et al. 2018). When dealing with
extreme climatic events, global risks can influence the
energetic system, for instance, in cases of storms, land-
slides, floods, and forest fires, which can affect the pro-
duction and distribution of energy globally. Climate events
can also negatively impact the food supply and food
security of vulnerable regions, as well as the water system.
Events such as floods and landslides can affect rivers and
increase the spread of infectious diseases, due to the
degradation of sanitary conditions, which reduces the
accessibility of the population to water (Mata-Lima et al.
2013; IEA 2015; IPCC 2007).
In this regard, the WEF Nexus is comprised of complex
interactions between different sectors at various scales,
influencing and being influenced by external drivers, such
as social, environmental and economic factors (Hussien
et al. 2017; Zhang and Vesselinov 2017; Engström et al.
2018). However, there is no commonly agreed concept of
the WEF Nexus described in the literature and so it is
difficult to develop, access or implement a Nexus frame-
work for policy or research efforts (Zhang and Vesselinov
2017; Wichelns 2017; Bieber et al. 2018).
The WEF Nexus requires a systemic view, highlighting
the importance of integrative approaches to promote WEF
security and sustainability, considering the stressors of
climate change, progressive urbanization and resource
scarcity. The WEF Nexus also provides knowledge that can
be used to reduce trade-offs and encourage synergistic
integration across sectors, avoiding the externalities and
adverse effects arising from considering each sector sepa-
rately. With this approach, it could be possible to mitigate
global risks and promote better integration within the
system by considering stochastic elements (Martinez-Her-
nandez et al. 2017).
3.1 The WEF Nexus for Sustainable Development
The WEF Nexus approach provides a systemic multisector
perspective to promote sustainable development and meet
the challenges imposed by global environmental changes
(Hoff 2011; Simpson and Jewitt 2019). Therefore, effective
management of the Nexus is necessary to achieve the
sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the United
Nations (UN 2015). Currently, mainstream research on
sustainability indicates that the WEF Nexus is considered
as one of the main issues with regard to reaching a balance
among the economic, social and environmental dimensions
of sustainable development (Rasul 2014; Liu et al. 2015). It
is important to highlight the value of scientific research on
the WEF Nexus, due to its relevance in understanding the
increasing demands for WEF resources.
Global cooperation is an important tool to overcome
institutional and financial constraints affecting sustainable
development, which encompasses food security, water
security and energy security (Hanjra and Qureshi 2010;
Engström, et al. 2018). Governments and organizations
need to raise awareness of the importance and interde-
pendence of the WEF Nexus in local communities, so they
can be prepared to participate in governance processes,
increasing their resilience while promoting a sustainable
and equitable development (Lawford et al. 2013; Gulati
et al. 2013; Hang et al. 2016). Particularly in developing
countries, population and economic growth, a growing
middle class, rapid urbanization, growing demands for
WEF resources, and the expansion of irrigation practices in
agricultural production represent significant challenges in
attempts to ensure WEF security, attain the SDGs and
mitigate and adapt to the impacts of global risks
(Spiegelberg et al. 2015; Rasul 2016; Al-Saidi and Elagib
2017; Amorim et al. 2018).
These challenges associated with the WEF Nexus need
cross-sectoral coordination to strengthen institutional
capacity and to promote awareness. Thus, facing them
requires harmonized public policies to define strategies and
incentives aimed at the smart and sustainable management
of the Nexus (Rasul 2016; Kurian 2016; Al-Saidi and
Elagib 2017; Markovska et al. 2016). Through a stochastic
approach, Karan et al. (2018) found that the elements
related to the WEF Nexus present specific needs and one
123

way to reduce the differences is by considering the influ-
ence of driving factors in terms of sustainability. Another
possibility is to promote an inter-systems approach, in
which a system can be integrated into one or more systems
to compensate for its weakness (e.g., import energy from a
country with excess energy), since integrated systems can
minimize or eliminate periods of resource scarcity.
Therefore, probabilistic analysis and stochastic models are
needed to promote reliable data to assist decision-making
aimed at good risk management.
3.2 Climate and Environmental Change
Many developing countries rely on agricultural activities
for the subsistence and income of the local population. This
dependence on agricultural production makes these people
the most vulnerable to climate change, such as extreme
weather events, water shortages, droughts, sea-level rise
and desertification (Damerau et al. 2016; Berchin et al.
2015; Faria et al. 2016), which, in turn, has a major
influence on precipitation and temperature differences
(Khalili and Nguyen 2018). In the social field, the impacts
of climate change can reduce productivity, causing food,
energy and water insecurity that triggers various forms of
collective violence and rising prices (Faria et al. 2016).
This can lead to public health problems and famine (Smith
et al. 2015), and even forces people to migrate due to
extreme weather events and insecurity (Berchin et al.
2017).
Vulnerabilities are also evident in the management of
water resources, which has become more challenging in the
context of climate change (Berchin et al. 2015). Worldwide
environmental change is affecting the natural water sys-
tems. Due to alterations in the water cycle, desertification,
floods and droughts occur more frequently, while simul-
taneously reducing access to fresh water (Al-Saidi and
Elagib 2017; Yu et al. 2018; Zhang et al. 2017). When it
comes to the WEF Nexus, no measure can be taken without
regard for the interdependency of the three sectors and how
they affect climate change, since system interaction pro-
motes greater flexibility in addressing issues such as global
risks and the mitigation of climate change (Karan et al.
2018; Simpson and Jewitt 2019).
Givens et al. (2018) applied a stochastic approach in
their studies and found that a new metric for the opti-
mization of solutions to address problems associated with
the WEF Nexus has the capacity to demonstrate the
structure of simulating the effects of climate change,
technology development and policies related to the three
sectors. The effects of climate change on the proposed
power generation technology illustrate the vulnerability of
the power generation infrastructure, where results may
indicate that the return provided by the energy sector to the
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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
potable water treatment facilities may not result in a
qualitative restructuring.
3.3 An Integrative Approach Towards
Sustainable Development
An integrated multi-sectoral, multi-scale and multi-disci-
plinary approach is required to obtain comprehensive data
and formulate holistic solutions to the challenges of the
WEF Nexus in terms of stochastic elements and risks and
promoting sustainable development (Howarth and Monas-
terolo 2016, 2017; Hang et al. 2016; Karabulut et al. 2017).
By applying a long-term approach, a well-functioning
international trade strategy could aid in the adaption to the
challenges of climate change, along with political reforms
aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. The
challenge is to implement policies that mitigate climate
change, while being as unrestrictive as possible. Thus, in
order to ensure food security, reforming international trade
might be the key to stabilizing food supply, while also
optimizing land and water resources (Hanjra and Qureshi
2010; Damerau et al. 2016).
Climate change will further stress the food production
sector, reducing its productivity and damaging the pro-
duction system, through its effects on clean water supply
and energy generation (Damerau et al. 2016; Khan et al.
2009). Technology designed for sustainable development
and enhancing the levels of awareness play important roles
in this process. The lack of engagement of civil society in
the issue of sustainability is a matter of unawareness;
people are not well informed about the environmental
challenges of our society. The solution to these challenges
lies in the dissemination of information and knowledge,
whilst engaging people in decision-making (Howarth
and Monasterolo 2017; Chirisa and Bandauko 2015).
The WEF Nexus generates both synergies and trade-offs
among multiple sectors (Flammini et al. 2017). The
objectives of sustainable development, when it comes to
the WEF Nexus, can help stakeholders generate, analyze
and disseminate data, increase their knowledge and pro-
moting awareness for civil society (Bielicki et al. 2019).
Good governance has the capacity to assist in the
implementation of sustainable development and effective
adaptation to climate change, influencing financial mea-
sures (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions) and legal and reg-
ulatory measures to regulate the exploitation of natural
resources and stimulate research and innovation (Berchin
et al. 2018). Technological innovations can contribute to
improving human wellbeing and ensuring sustainable
development for all. Thus, technological advances must be
aligned with social engagement and awareness to promote
sustainable development. In this regard, research and
development are fundamental since they can support
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
decision-making with updated information on the WEF
Nexus (Lawford et al. 2013). New techniques and tech-
nologies are important tools to mitigate climate change and
adapt to its consequences, such as improving crop pro-
ductivity, maximizing the efficiency of water use and
treatment, increasing energy efficiency and optimizing
distribution through local production (Hellegers et al.
2008).
Technological innovation contributes to providing use-
ful information on the WEF Nexus and its complex inter-
relations, providing support for local development
(Martinez-Hernandez et al. 2017) and enabling the moni-
toring of progress (Sanders and Masri 2016). Biofuel pro-
duction also plays an important role in discussions on the
WEF Nexus in the context of climate change and sustain-
ability, since it requires land, water and energy that could
be used in food production. However, in the context of
sustainable development, biofuels represent a resource with
lower environmental impact, including lower emissions of
greenhouse gases, particularly when compared with other
sources such as fossil fuels. Nevertheless, in the case of the
interdependence of the Nexus elements, biofuels could
have adverse effects on the water and energy systems
through increased demand, and contribute to food insecu-
rity due to land use issues (Tirado et al. 2010; Popp et al.
2014).
Institutions supported by civil society and business
entities should focus their efforts on mobilizing science and
technology toward sustainability. This also supports the
management of the relations between scientific knowledge
and action, while increasing the accessibility, credibility
and legitimacy of the information produced. The idea is to
apply the knowledge obtained through research to the
production sector, aimed at improving the sustainability of
the WEF Nexus. To achieve this, comprehensive public
policies need to be created based on the interconnectivity
of the Nexus approach to sustainability.
4 Cases from the literature: Europe, Asia,
Africa, America and Oceania
The WEF Nexus concept is often recognized as vague in
the literature and there is no consensus on its definition.
Therefore, representing the WEF Nexus in case studies
should help to elucidate its complexity (Wichelns 2017;
Zhang and Vesselinov 2017). Cases from Munich, The
Himalayas, South Africa, Brazil and New Zealand have
been selected from the literature to briefly represent the
WEF Nexus, as presented by Gondhalekar and Ramsauer
(2016), Rasul (2014), Gulati et al. (2013), Mercure et al.
(2019) and Herath et al. (2011). Thus, one case study per
continent (excluding Antarctica) is discussed to represent
each region and enhance the consistency and impact of the
study.
4.1 Europe
The challenges in Europe associated with the WEF Nexus
include: the balance of energy prices to enable farmers to
afford the costs of irrigation, the treatment of water for
small towns, the safeguarding of the integrity of rivers and
other environmental areas, mainly related to hydropower,
and the creation of social awareness (Mayor et al. 2015).
Uncertainty is a recurrent factor in WEF management.
Therefore, European countries need to develop crisis pre-
vention plans and strategies to increase resilience and avoid
problems related to WEF (in)security (Mayor et al. 2015).
The WEF Nexus approach represents complex relations
among sectors and stakeholders. However, few countries
have policies and plans to address the WEF Nexus as a
unit. The United Kingdom for example does not have
policies that address the WEF Nexus interdependencies
and, therefore, promote trade-offs between the WEF sec-
tors and strengthen the country’s resilience to climate
change (Sharmina et al. 2016). Despite recent progress in
recognizing the challenges of the Nexus in the European
Union, most policies related to resource management
remain (uni)sectoral, leading to mid and long-term chal-
lenges for resource management and climate change
adaptation. New policies and decision-making must be
guided by dynamism, flexibility, multidisciplinarity and
science.
A study with experts from the United Kingdom indi-
cated that decision-making in the context of the WEF
Nexus requires a multi-stakeholder and transdisciplinary
approach as a means of evaluation and analysis. This
approach requires the active engagement of stakeholders
from different sectors at all stages of knowledge develop-
ment and decision-making (Howarth and Monasterolo
2016).
The increased global demand for natural resources
coupled with climate change lead to significant challenges
in terms of urban planning and sustainability and Europe is
no exception. Munich, for instance, one of the largest cities
in Germany, is highly dependent on food imports. In this
regard, Gondhalekar and Ramsauer (2016) suggest vertical
crops as a solution for sustainable food production. Vertical
crops could provide 66% of Munich’s demand for fruit and
246% of the local demand for vegetables. As positive side
effects, vertical crops would reduce heat islands, reduce
energy consumption and enhance thermal comfort in
buildings, therefore reducing the demand for air condi-
tioning in summer. In addition, wastewater could be treated
and recycled for human consumption and irrigation, which,
coupled with rainwater harvesting, could lead to savings of
123

up to 26% of the current freshwater supply. The water
saved could be used for vertical crops in urban agriculture.
This integrative WEF Nexus approach could increase the
city’s sustainability and WEF security, uniting the most
diverse stakeholders in the management of WEF resources,
resulting in a large and complex system of communication
between the actors, allowing the reduction of negative
impacts of interdependent risks.
4.2 Asia
Understanding the Nexus in Asia is extremely important,
since the region needs to feed two-thirds of the global
population and consumes around 59% of global fresh
water. In particular, South Asia has only 3% of the world’s
available land and approximately one-fourth of the world’s
population, with 1.6 billion people (Rasul 2014). Thus,
there is a scenario of complex factors putting pressure on
the region, with a high demand for food production from a
limited amount of land available for cultivation, limited
water resources available and relatively high energy prices.
The increasing scarcity of natural resources coupled with
the large population in the region threatens natural
ecosystems and intensifies greenhouse gas emissions (Ra-
sul 2014; Jalilov et al. 2015).
The Himalaya region, according to Rasul (2014), shows
evidence of different challenges and complexities com-
pared to Europe. This region has a large population, which
is growing, poverty, resource scarcity and limited territory.
The intensive use of water and energy for food production,
together with greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation,
also threatens ecosystems and increases the risks associated
with regional development and sustainability. This scenario
requires a transboundary approach to face the WEF Nexus
challenges and work toward sustainable development.
Through a holistic view of the current situation of regional
and local resource management, effective actions can be
taken to reduce the impacts of possible risks or prevent
them from becoming a reality.
It is important that countries promote the joint man-
agement of natural resources to avoid the adverse effects of
a unilateral exploitation, particularly in countries that share
rivers and other resources that cross borders (Keskinen
et al. 2015). The unilateral exploitation of a river by one
country while disregarding the needs of bordering countries
causes insecurity and thus interstate management based on
the WEF Nexus approach can improve regional security.
The case study of the Tonle Sap Lake of the transboundary
Mekong River demonstrates that the increasing number of
hydroelectric power plants in the region threatens food
security. Therefore, the impacts of these hydroelectric
power plants may be transboundary and require govern-
ments from different countries to build public policies that
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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
consider the competition for natural resources, particularly
those associated with the WEF Nexus (Keskinen et al.
2015).
Yang et al. (2016) proposed a hydro-economic model
for the Brahmaputra River Basin, to understand the future
water supply for energy and food production in the basin.
The results indicate that the system is dependent on suffi-
cient precipitation in the major Asian river basins to avoid
socioeconomic and environmental crises. However, climate
change is expected to alter precipitation and temperature
patterns in the region, exposing the region to risks and
crises. This uncertainty, which may be extended to much of
the Asian region, is closely related to the WEF Nexus
approach. Yang et al. (2016) warned that diversion of water
from rivers would leave one or more countries unable to
guarantee enough water for energy and food production,
mostly affecting the poor, particularly those farming
riparian zones.
To consolidate a sustainable approach to the Nexus
challenges in the region, stakeholders need to develop a
transboundary plan considering geopolitical, social, eco-
nomic and environmental factors.
4.3 Africa
In the case of the study carried out in Africa, the WEF
Nexus is considered in the context of climate change from
a different perspective. Besides focusing on resource
scarcity, it focuses on the high costs of resources and inputs
that challenge WEF security at the household level and
with regard to production systems. A better management of
natural resources and good governance, aligned with
grassroots innovations, can improve WEF security in the
region whilst improving sustainable development and
reducing vulnerabilities for householders.
Davidson et al. (2003) analyzed the effects of climate
change on water management and food and energy pro-
duction in sub-Saharan Africa. In a context of the African
scenario at the beginning of the millennium, the study
highlights that Africa is rich in energy and mineral
resources as well as other natural resources. However, their
exploitation is minimal or irrational and the products are
often exported to regions outside the continent. Africa
faces many challenges related to the continent’s poor
infrastructure, weak institutional and administrative
capacity and a falling human development rate since the
1990s. Africa relies on agricultural production both for its
own consumption and revenues from exportation. How-
ever, agriculture is at risk due to desertification and the
competitiveness of international markets. The continent
needs international aid and developmental policies focused
on WEF security (Davidson et al. 2003).
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Despite the negative prognosis, Africa is changing. In
Northeast Africa, Ethiopia is investing in the industrial-
ization of its agricultural sector, 90% of the country’s
energy comes from biomass and the government is
investing in hydroelectric power plants. As occurs in Asia,
the country faces water disputes for agricultural activities
and energy production (Karlberg et al. 2015). The region of
the Lake Tana sub-basin in Ethiopia faces many challenges
related to increased agricultural production, which requires
greater supplies of energy for crop irrigation, transport and
storage, hence the energy transition towards hydroelec-
tricity. This scenario can lead to competition and/or syn-
ergy between the WEF sectors, considering that the
agricultural waste could be used for bioenergy production.
However, both agriculture and bioenergy require large
amounts of water that exceed the country’s capacity
(Karlberg et al. 2015). This challenge is also faced by other
African countries.
The cities of Bulawayo (Zimbabwe), Cape Town (South
Africa), Dar es-Salam (Tanzania) and Cairo (Egypt) are
examples of four African cities affected by the intensifi-
cation of climate change, particularly due to heat islands
and droughts in urban regions. These effects threaten
energy security by compromising water supply for hydro-
electricity production (Chirisa and Bandauko 2015). The
water crisis in African cities also has negative effects on
food production, particularly on urban agriculture. Local
governments in these cities have weak institutional
capacity and face resource constraints and this, coupled
with the limited technical capacity to deal with climate
change, increases the trade-offs in the WEF Nexus. The
result is the burdening of the poor with rising food and
energy prices and water rationing (Chirisa and Bandauko
2015).
South Africa follows a global trend of increasing food
prices. Currently, 60% of South Africa’s households face
some degree of food insecurity (Gulati et al. 2013).
Between 2007 and 2008, electricity prices increased more
than 24% in the country, affecting all production sectors
and households. The Producer Price Index (PPI) demon-
strates that between March 2005 and March 2012 the prices
of gas and water increased by 96% and electricity by
177%. Thus, the prices of other products used for food
production and processing also increased. The high energy
prices have implications not only for food production but
also for water collection, transportation and distribution.
Consequently, water prices also increased by 60%. The
rising water prices, coupled with increasing water scarcity,
have led to greater challenges for food production and
security (Gulati et al. 2013). There are many emergent
initiatives to promote resilience to the Nexus challenges in
South Africa. One project aims to integrate efficient irri-
gation and nutrient inputs, particularly nitrogen, in pastures
for livestock consumption, reducing the use of fertilizers
and improving the efficiency of irrigation tools to reduce
water use. Also, the use of livestock manure is coupled
with rainwater harvesting to produce biogas, generating
energy and liquid biofertilizer in a decentralized manner
and rainwater is stored for domestic use (Gulati et al.
2013).
Water is a strategic resource for the African social and
environmental systems. The Nile basin is under stress due
to rapid population growth, inefficient resource use, cli-
mate change and persistent conflicts between bordering
countries with extensive productive riparian zones. One of
the main tributaries of the Nile basin is the Blue Nile River
which contributes to 60% of the total annual flow (Allam
and Eltahir 2019). Allam and Eltahir (2019) analyzed the
WEF Nexus in the Blue Nile River basin in order to
optimally allocate land and water resources for irrigated
agriculture and hydroelectric power generation, maximiz-
ing total benefits. The model used in the study demon-
strates significant potential for the expansion of rain-fed
agriculture that covers up to half of the basin area, pro-
viding improvements to the soil. The model proposed by
Allam and Eltahir (2019) results in an annual saving of
around 7.55 km3 of the Blue Nile River water. The model
also found that only three of the 11 irrigation systems
proposed in Ethiopia’s master plan is economically viable.
There is a trade-off between the expansion of potential
rain-fed agriculture in the basin and water savings for
hydropower production. This trade-off would provide an
opportunity for countries in the region to cooperate in
investing in efficient agricultural expansion and sharing
benefits and costs (Allam and Eltahir 2019).
These are examples of local initiatives that need to be
scaled up to benefit the country and the region. Investi-
gating the virtual water trade, transboundary management
of water resources and techniques and technologies to
improve resource use also represent potential initiatives to
manage the challenges associated with the WEF Nexus.
Therefore, the Nexus approach is essential to support long-
term policies and plans aimed at increasing food security
and improving sustainability across the whole African
Continent.
4.4 America
North America faces many vulnerabilities and complexity
challenges related to WEF resource management in the
context of climate change and ecosystem processes. The
California Delta in the western region of the United States,
for example, has a complex ecosystem with over 700
species of fish and other types of wildlife. In this region,
water is transported from northern to southern California,
which consumes large amounts of energy (Liu 2016), and
123

the Delta is used for food production. Among the factors
that influence water supply, energy generation, food pro-
duction and biodiversity, are: (1) declining reliability of
quality water distribution; (2) increased vulnerability to
earthquakes and the risk associated with dikes and floods;
(3) flooding of agricultural land; and (4) increased invasive
species, harming native species. These Delta issues can
negatively impact California’s drinking water and agri-
cultural food production (Liu 2016).
Mexico is confronted with major challenges associated
with WEF resource management and biodiversity conser-
vation (Spring 2016). Mexico is an oil exporting country
and has the world’s fourth largest shale gas reserve. It has
extensive areas of dry land where 77% of its population
lives and 87% of the GDP is generated. However, only
31% of the country’s rainwater is used, which promotes an
overexploitation of aquifers. In addition, a neoliberal free
trade policy has allowed the importation of highly subsi-
dized food, as well as rural-to-urban and international
peasant migration. Thus, extreme events influenced by
climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, have
negative social and economic effects. Organized crime
contributes to the promotion of social unrest. The links
between water scarcity, overexploited aquifers, deforested
areas, natural disasters, high food prices, weak government
institutions, high energy prices and fragile governance are
increasing poverty and migration, creating a risk of social
instability in the urban areas of Central America (Spring
2016).
In South America, Brazil is one of the countries that
could be most affected by climate change and serves as an
example of the interdependence between WEF systems
(Neto et al. 2018; Berchin et al. 2017). This is due to the
strong relationship between climate change and the envi-
ronmental and social degradation, since the country’s main
economic activity is agriculture. With regard to changes in
temperature, the Amazon region may reach a 6 C
increase, which could lead to a loss of biodiversity and
functioning ecosystems (Mercure et al. 2019). Brazil could
also experience major changes in precipitation, with a
possible increase of around 60% in the southern regions of
the country, while in the northern region a fall of approx-
imately 40% has been predicted. The change in precipita-
tion in this country may result in several water crises, such
as the reduction of water levels in reservoirs and conse-
quently of hydroelectric power generation, which repre-
sents approximately 62% of the country’s energy
production. Although this energy source is associated with
a smaller amount of greenhouse gas emissions, it is vul-
nerable to environmental problems (Mercure et al. 2019).
The changing precipitation patterns could mean that the
cultivation of crops such as maize, sugar cane and soybeans
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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
would need to migrate to other regions as land productivity
changes (Mercure et al. 2019).
Due to the high global demand for liquid biofuel pro-
duced from these crops, Brazilian production has grown
significantly in the last decade, with the increased stimulus
of policies for the generation of biofuels that do not require
the use of fossil fuels for their production. This need is
leading to an important change in agricultural production
where instead of increasing the quantity of products pro-
duced for food, production is aimed at the generation of
biofuels, a sector in which Brazil as a major player glob-
ally. Clearly, this trend could lead to food insecurity
(Berchin et al. 2018).
Meza et al. (2015) analyzed the WEF Nexus interactions
in four regions of Chile that are currently suffering from
climate variability and water scarcity. They concluded that
the Antofagasta region has two particular conditions that
shape the relationship between water and energy: high
copper ore yields and extreme aridity. This relationship
should be improved in the future due to the heavy reliance
on water desalination as the region’s main source of water
for copper production and human consumption. The
Copiapó region represents an example of a WEF Nexus
under pressure due to intensive exploitation of water
resources, including groundwater. The Maipo region is a
case in which the WEF Nexus is affected by strong com-
petition from the urban sector, which is likely to intensify
with climate change. In the Maule region, water forms the
base of the WEF Nexus, providing resources to support
agriculture and hydropower generation. Thus, western
South America has characteristics and ecosystems that
differ from those of other areas of the continent, and
therefore it requires specific actions to mitigate the impacts
of climate change on the WEF Nexus.
Consideration of the WEF Nexus should provide a sci-
ence-based approach to policy formulation and seek to
combine existing efforts across the three sectors. This
highlights the importance of studying the stochastic ele-
ments, since a change in the water system can directly
affect the energy and food systems.
4.5 Oceania: New Zealand
Water and energy are closely connected resources since
energy is needed to operate water treatment and supply
systems and the energy supply is affected by the urgent
need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (Herath et al.
2011).
Many export products in New Zealand are sold with a
‘‘green clean’’ image. Herath et al. (2011) analyzed the
water footprint of hydroelectricity, the main energy source
used in the country’s production chains. The water foot-
print represents the amount of potable water needed to
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
produce goods or merchandise and has ramifications
regarding the competitive advantage of New Zealand’s
exports.
To evaluate the water footprint of several goods and
services, the authors define three goals: (1) to evaluate the
impact of hydroelectric energy generation on hydric
resources, considering the water footprint; (2) to quantify
regional and variable climate conditions (e.g., by moni-
toring the reservoir surface area) and their effect on the
hydroelectricity water footprint (in this study, hydroelectric
power plants were analyzed based only on reservoir surface
area); and (3) to estimate the total water footprint of a
hydroelectricity power plant in New Zealand. The results
obtained were used to broadened the water footprint defi-
nition and the water balance of the system included rain,
the main refueling element of hydric resources, as an input.
The authors consider that this theoretical approach might
be used to evaluate the water footprint of any hydroelectric
power generating system, or other systems associated with
goods and services around the world.
The new definition also gives information which aids an
understanding of the impact of the water footprint in dif-
ferent places, since each location has a unique availability
of water resources. A negative water footprint value indi-
cates that reservoirs in regions with high rainfall levels
might collect more water than they lose through precipi-
tation. This water surplus can be used for other purposes,
such as agriculture. The authors suggest that interventions
to reduce water waste along the productive chain will have
impacts on the availability of water resources needed for
agriculture and food production.
These cases show the different perspectives and realities
in relation to the challenges associated with the WEF
Nexus. However, despite the different approaches, they all
highlight the complex interactions between WEF and
social, economic and environmental factors (Herath et al.
2011).
5 Results and discussion
The expected benefits of different actions are detailed in
this section. Tables 2, 3 and 4 show the main recommen-
dations with regard to the WEF Nexus, based on the sci-
entific literature reviewed in this study. These
recommendations are organized into three dimensions:
public policies, research and development, and practices.
However, those regarding ‘‘policy’’ should be implemented
by the government, based on scientific evidence, and sup-
ported by the engagement of multiple stakeholders.
The recommendations proposed are related to the SDGs.
The research and development dimension supports both
public policy and practices and is essential in supporting
governance mechanisms and practices aimed at sustainable
development and climate change mitigation. Public poli-
cies provide guidelines and indicate which actions should
be encouraged or restricted for the maintenance of the
WEF systems. Finally, the practice dimension deals with
strategic actions for production that adhere to sustainability
standards with regard to the WEF Nexus. It is also
responsible for disseminating the technologies in the mar-
ket, allowing the propagation of technologies, knowledge
and products that will lead the transition to a more sus-
tainable society.
The management and practice dimension is dependent
on implementing all aspects established by the policies.
Research and innovation to increase efficiency in the water
sector (i.e., for the treatment, distribution and use of water,
and for food and energy production) are urgently needed to
reduce waste and attain the sustainable management of
water resources, which increases water security and
improves clean water access to all (Lal 2013; Endo et al.
2017; Karabulut et al. 2017).
Promoting the collection, analysis, sharing and discus-
sion of multisectoral data on the WEF Nexus and its
complexities, exchanges and synergies, can contribute to
the refinement of knowledge and data to support WEF
Nexus management and governance in all sectors and at all
levels (Martinez-Hernandez et al. 2017; Smith et al. 2015).
Another recommendation for the implementation of sus-
tainable development related to the WEF Nexus is to
promote new agrotechnology for small farmers, ensuring
that farmers have access to technologies, increasing their
resilience and efficiency, and contributing to the sustain-
able management of the WEF Nexus and to regional
development (Hanjra and Qureshi 2010; Al-Saidi and
Elagib 2017).
Practices such as the development of evaluation mech-
anisms to analyze, evaluate and monitor local system
synergies and compensations in the WEF core and external
factors (ecosystem services, economic, social and envi-
ronmental changes) are required. Also, fostering engage-
ment between researchers and local communities to obtain
these specific datasets for local contexts can contribute to
the assessment of mechanisms and data platforms to sup-
port researchers and decision-makers with science-based
data. This enables a holistic view of the WEF Nexus and its
implications (Martinez-Hernandez et al. 2017; Karabulut
et al. 2017).
Raising awareness among multiple stakeholders
regarding the impacts of environmental change on water
and food security and promoting cooperation for the
sharing of technology and knowledge on the WEF Nexus
contributes to the promotion of sustainable development.
This approach requires various stakeholders to collect,
analyze and disseminate data on complex systems such as
123
 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Table 2 - Research and development to support the sustainable management of the WEF Nexus
Research and development
Authors Recommendations Benefits SDGs

Ringler et al. (2013), Lawford et al. Develop an integrated data-based Based on risk and stochastic elements, a 9 Industry,
(2013), Rasul, 2014), Spiegelberg model for the WEF Nexus, providing scientific model of the WEF Nexus Innovation and
et al. (2015), Pittock et al. (2015), knowledge to support decision- can assist decision-makers designing Infrastructure
Rasul (2016), Martinez-Hernandez making and forecast scenarios long-term strategies for sustainable 12 Responsible
et al. (2017), Hussien et al. (2017) development consumption
and production
17 Partnerships
for the goals
Hanjra and Qureshi (2010), Ringler Use of an integrated global model This model should consider user 12 Responsible
et al. (2013), Gulati et al. (2013), Liu addressing the interactions between behaviors, family size, income, diet, consumption
et al. (2015), Hussien et al. (2017) WEF at end-use level at the appliance efficiency and seasonal and production
household scale variability in WEF consumption to 10 Reduce
establish best management practices inequality
and identify strategic areas for within and
improvement (i.e., reduction of among
consumption) countries
17 Partnerships
for the goals
13 Climate
Action
11 Sustainable
Cities and
Communities
Yang et al. (2016), Smajgl et al. (2016), Develop new methodologies to address New methods that address the WEF 4 Quality
Sharmina et al. (2016), Rasul (2016), the Nexus based on uncertainty Nexus across scales and sectors can Education
Mohtar and Lawford (2016) analysis and stochastic elements, improve resource-efficiency, 11 Sustainable
using the modeling results to provide increasing resilience and Cities and
information to policy makers sustainability Communities
17 Partnerships
for the goals
Biggs et al. (2015), Conway et al. Stimulate interdisciplinary and Leads to policies and management 4 Quality
(2015), Bennett et al. (2015), Yillia multisectoral research to support structures that optimize WEF Education
(2016), Damerau et al. (2016), Yang decision-making and policy reports connections, integrating different 9 Industry,
et al. (2016), Smajgl et al. (2016), examining the interactions between areas of research to understand the Innovation and
Sanders and Masri (2016), Mohtar the Nexus elements complexities of WEF systems, Infrastructure
and Lawford (2016), Howarth and reduces trade-offs and increases
17 Partnerships
Monasterolo (2016), Wichelns (2017) synergy between resources
for the Goals
Popp et al. (2014), van Vuuren et al. Increase governmental and private Investments in innovation and 9 Industry,
(2015), Leese and Meish (2015), investments in research and technology development for the WEF Innovation and
Hang et al. (2016), Sanders and Masri innovation associated with the WEF are essential to increase resilience and Infrastructure
(2016), Rasul (2016), Howarth and Nexus promote sustainable development. 11 Sustainable
Monasterolo (2016) Cities and
Communities
13 Climate
Action
16 Peace, justice
and Strong
institutions
17 Partnerships
for the Goals

123
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Table 3 Policies to support the sustainable management of the WEF Nexus

Policy
Authors Recommendations Benefits SDGs

Tirado et al. (2010), Popp et al. (2014) Develop public policies to regulate Optimizes land use and reduces 2 No Hunger
bioenergy and encourage small competition between food production 7 Affordable
farmers to grow energy crops on and energy crops and Clean
degraded lands, inappropriate for food Energy
production
12 Responsible
Consumption
and
Production
13 Climate
Action
Hanjra and Qureshi (2010), Tirado et al. Develop coordinated policy Researchers and decision-makers can 4 Quality
(2010), Lawford et al. (2013), Ringler frameworks to improve technical, create public policies addressing the Education
et al. (2013), Lele et al. (2013), Gulati financial, institutional and WEF Nexus complexities and the 16 Peace,
et al. (2013), Popp et al. (2014), Leese organizational synergies among WEF interdependence of resources and justice and
and Meish (2015), Conway et al. sectors and encourage global sectors, thereby reducing impacts and Strong
(2015), Biggs et al. (2015), Bennett cooperation pressures on ecosystems institutions
et al. (2015), Smajgl et al. (2016),
17 Partnerships
Sharmina et al. (2016), Rasul (2016),
for the goals
Yang et al. (2016), Yillia (2016), Endo
et al. (2017)
Hanjra and Qureshi (2010), Lele et al. Encourage policy makers to develop Research-based data can be used to 9 Industry,
(2013), Gulati et al. (2013), Liu et al. effective urban planning mechanisms define strategies and policies aimed at Innovation
(2015), Gondhalekar and Ramsauer for the WEF Nexus climate change adaptation and and
(2016), Schlör et al. (2017) mitigation in urban centers Infrastructure
11 Sustainable
Cities and
Communities
12 Responsible
Consumption
and
Production
13 Climate
Action
16 Peace,
Justice and
Strong
Institutions
Gulati et al. (2013), Smajgl et al. (2016), Develop policies and mechanisms that Migration is a human right and 16 Peace,
Berchin et al. (2017) support human migration due to supportive policies to assist migration Justice and
environmental disruptions and climate are essential regarding current Strong
change. environmental changes and the Institutions
negative effects of the WEF Nexus,
particularly for the poor
Hanjra and Qureshi (2010), Lele et al. Increase public and private investment The availability of funding and awards 16 Peace,
(2013), Sanders and Masri (2016), along with funding for the for innovation and technology Justice and
Caniato et al. (2017) development and innovation of development aimed at WEF will Strong
technology aimed at solving problems increase resilience and promote Institutions
associated with the WEF Nexus sustainable development 17 Partnerships
for the Goals

the WEF synergies, raising awareness and promoting Assisting integrated, multisectoral and multilateral pol-
capacity building for all (Lal 2013; Lawford et al. 2013; icy deliberations as a community of practice to achieve a
Vuuren et al. 2015; Ringler et al. 2013). holistic WEF approach to policy development requires the
engagement of various stakeholders from different sectors.

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 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Table 4 Practices to support the sustainable management of the WEF Nexus

Practices
Authors Recommendations Benefits SDGs

Khan et al. (2009), Hanjra and Qureshi Diversification of food production, Reduces the pressure on agribusiness for 2 No Hunger
(2010), Gulati et al. (2013), Wichelns expanding mariculture, production of food production 9 Industry,
(2017), Caniato et al. (2017 seaweeds and marine animals Innovation
and
Infrastructure
11 Sustainable
Cities and
Communities
12 Responsible
consumption
and
production
13 Climate
Action
14 Life below
water
15 Life on
Land
Lal (2013), Biggs et al. (2015) Reduce post-harvest losses using Increases WEF resource efficiency by 12 Responsible
efficient harvesting, transport and reducing waste consumption
cooling systems and
production.
13 Climate
Action
Hanjra and Qureshi (2010), Lal (2013) Use organic waste to generate Reduces the competitiveness between 7 Affordable
bioenergy the use of land for food and biofuel and Clean
production while also reducing levels Energy
of waste 9 Industry,
Innovation
and
Infrastructure
11 Sustainable
Cities and
Communities
12 Responsible
consumption
and
production
13 Climate
Action
Hellegers et al. (2008), Khan et al. Apply technology to increase the Water efficiency and the sustainable 2 No Hunger
(2009), Hanjra and Qureshi (2010), Lal efficiency of water use, including management of water resources can 6 Clean Water
(2013), Ringler et al. (2013), Hang conservation agriculture, micro- reduce waste, increase water security and
et al. (2016), Caniato et al. (2017 irrigation and rainwater storage and improve access to clean water for Sanitation
all
9 Industry,
Innovation
and
Infrastructure
11 Sustainable
Cities and
Communities
12 Responsible
consumption
and
production

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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Table 4 (continued)
Practices
Authors Recommendations Benefits SDGs
13 Climate
Action
Bayley et al. (2011) Cultivate vertical crops in urban Optimize the use of urban areas and 2 No Hunger
environments to increase local fresh reduce competition for land. Aligned 9 Industry,
food production, save energy and with other technologies like rainwater Innovation
reduce the cost of packaging and harvesting, sewage treatment and and
transportation biogas production, vertical crops Infrastructure
increase resilience to the WEF Nexus
11 Sustainable
and its complexities
Cities and
Communities
11 Sustainable
Cities and
Communities
12 Responsible
consumption
and
production
13 Climate
Action
Bhaduri et al. (2015), Caniato et al. Implement pilot projects as case studies Pilot projects provide real data on the 9 Industry,
(2017), Endo et al. (2017), Howarth to create innovative solutions to the WEF Nexus, and they need to be Innovation
and Monasterolo (2017), Hussien et al. WEF challenges encouraged in all sectors to increase and
(2017), Kurian (2017), Martinez- knowledge regarding the complexities Infrastructure
Hernandez et al. (2017) of the Nexus and its synergies and 11 Sustainable
trade-offs in multiple sectors Cities and
Communitie
13 Climate
Action
16 Peace,
justice and
Strong
institutions
17 Partnerships
for the Goals
Howarth and Monasterolo (2017), Promote capacity building and training Educate stakeholders regarding the 4 Quality
Kurian (2017), Caniato et al. (2017), on the holistic/multi-sectoral and impacts of climate change on WEF Education
Endo et al. (2017), Hussien et al. multi-disciplinary approach to the security, through knowledge sharing 12 Responsible
(2017) WEF Nexus and capacity building consumption
and
production
Leese and Meish (2015), Pittock et al. Promote multi-stakeholder engagement Developing communities of practice for 9 Industry,
(2015), Spiegelberg et al. (2015), in communities of practice for the the WEF Nexus can provide Innovation
Caniato et al. (2017), Hussien et al. WEF Nexus. information on local/regional and
(2017) challenges and provide multi-sectoral, Infrastructure
multidisciplinary and multi- 11 Sustainable
stakeholders solutions to these Cities and
challenges Communities
16 Peace,
justice and
Strong
institutions
17 Partnerships
for the Goals

123
 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Fig. 1 The WEF Nexus for sustainable development

123
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
This multi-stakeholder approach provides holistic and
systematic data for the WEF nexus, improving knowledge
and initiatives to assist policy development (Smajgl et al.
2016; Tirado et al. 2010; Berchin et al. 2017; Gondhalekar
and Ramsauer 2016). Thus, coordinated policies for inter-
national trade are needed to support the negotiation of
reforms to reduce barriers and improve sustainability in
productive chains. International trade can be guided by
sustainability guidelines aimed at production efficiency,
fair trade and environmental preservation (Gondhalekar
and Ramsauer 2016; Lele et al. 2013; Zhang and Vesseli-
nov 2017).
In the light of increasing global pressures on natural
resources, the Nexus approach needs to be implemented
both in the revision of old policies and the creation of new
ones. The WEF Nexus perspective offers a holistic and
transversal approach to sustainability that is based on sci-
ence, which supports decision-makers in their attempts to
avoid the adverse effects of global change and resource
exploitation. This approach also enables decision-making
based on the complex and interdependent reality of sys-
tems, thus avoiding unintended adverse effects of govern-
ment action (Ringler et al. 2013; Biggs et al. 2015; Hanjra
and Qureshi 2010; Gulati et al. 2013). Table 3 provides
details on the policies needed to support the sustainable
management of the WEF Nexus.
In terms of the WEF Nexus, it is important to highlight
some practices that would support production aimed at
adhering to sustainability standards associated with the
WEF Nexus. Hanjra and Qureshi (2010) recommend the
production of resilient farms at critical locations, to adapt
to climate change, promoting efficiency use of land and
WEF resources, using new technologies, techniques and
methods to benefit this practice.
The implementation of the WEF nexus concept is viable
in all sectors. The efficiency of farms, for instance, in terms
of resource use, can be improved by adopting sustainable
practices, such as collecting rainwater, producing photo-
voltaic energy and generating biogas and biofertilizers.
These practices reduce the dependence on inputs and
increase WEF security and resilience (Neto et al. 2018;
Hanjra and Qureshi 2010; Hussien et al. 2017; Caniato
et al. 2017).
The implementation of new technologies and methods in
the market to reduce costs and stimulate sustainable prac-
tices also support decision-makers in the search for sus-
tainable management practices. Among these technologies,
remote sensing capability (e.g., machinery, robotic weed
regulation, thermal and humidity sensing) can increase
production efficiency by providing relevant information to
assist managers and decision-makers (Sanders and Masri
2016; Caniato et al. 2017; Kurian 2017). Table 4 details the
practices that can support sustainable management of the
WEF Nexus.
According to Tables 2, 3 and 4, the proposed recom-
mendations consider a vast array of risks and actions that
put pressure on ecosystems, water resources, energy gen-
eration and food production, including climate change,
resource disputes, land misuse, infrastructure failure and
lack of communication.
However, for these recommendations to be executed
there is a need for cross-sectoral coordination to explore
the potential of the WEF Nexus approach. Nowadays, few
countries explicitly address the WEF Nexus in their legal
systems. Brazil, for instance, is one of the main food pro-
ducers in the world and has large water reservoirs. It is also
a large biofuel producer and consumer, and currently there
is no direct evidence that interlinked governance involving
the WEF Nexus concept is taken into consideration.
The mismanagement of natural resources leads to neg-
ative consequences, regardless of the global region. This
interdependency between economies requires action in
order to achieve synergy in the development of technolo-
gies, financing, governance, and industries to ensure the
integrative management of the WEF Nexus. Science,
through knowledge and understanding, must lead in the
need for change, playing the role of advisor in creating
public policies and in the production sector. Given its
importance, besides the academic recommendations
detailed in Tables 2, 3 and 4, the literature suggests that the
capacitation of human resources is essential to support the
WEF Nexus approach.
Capacity building can be achieved through education for
sustainable development and partnerships with universities
that aim to assist in the promotion of conscious and
responsible citizens by developing critical thinking and
awareness to face the challenges of sustainable develop-
ment. However, there is a gap between the practices
employed in production and the academic/scientific
knowledge about sustainable development and sustainable
practices. A science-policy dialogue could benefit society,
producing responsible policies for the management of
natural resources and production systems.
Figure 1 shows how WEF resources are interconnected
and influenced by different factors. It was produced based
on insights taken from the literature. This figure details the
complex interrelations between the WEF resources and
external factors such as economic, social (demographic)
and environmental change. It also highlights the key areas
of our understanding of the WEF Nexus and its concept
based on this study. It is clear that achieving sustainable
development in the context of the WEF Nexus requires
greater investment in awareness and education, further
research and innovation at all levels, more coordinated
123

policies informed by science and greater engagement of
multiple stakeholders, acting as communities of practice.
It is important to note that external drivers that influence
and relate to the WEF Nexus do not act in isolation.
Movements associated with changes in the global econ-
omy, demography, climate and environments, along with
numerous other factors and drivers, occur simultaneously,
resulting in new drivers that can bring unprecedented
challenges and effects. This is the result of an unpre-
dictable scenario to which humankind is exposed, bringing
uncertainty and complexity to the management of food,
water and energy resources.
After analyzing the literature and the recommendations
proposed in Tables 2, 3 and 4, certain needs can be iden-
tified: to explicitly discuss the WEF Nexus in governance
and policy-making, and in international forums for sus-
tainable development, notably in relation to the SDGs of
the United Nations; to build capacities and promote overall
societal awareness; and a multi-stakeholder, multi-sectoral
and multidisciplinary is needed to address sustainability
related to the WEF Nexus. Thus, developing a reliable
macroeconomic model based on stochastic dynamics is
required to promote science-based evidence. This will
allow managers to understand and analyze the effects of
global changes on the WEF Nexus, leading to more
effective governance for sustainable development.
6 Conclusions
There are many uncertainties related to how societies can
best adapt to global environmental, sociodemographic and
economic changes. At the heart of the concerns lies the
need to promote the sustainable management of water–
energy–food (WEF) systems, considering both the natural
environment and human activities. Developing countries
are likely to be the most affected by climate change, due to
their lower adaptive capacity. These countries face many
challenges in promoting effective adaptation plans due to
their reduced infrastructure, scarcity of resources, and
difficulty in attending to the primary needs of the popula-
tion. Corruption and mismanagement of resources also
represent critical concerns. In this regard, the sustainable
development goals (SDGs) of the United Nations aim to
support governments and decision-makers in their attempts
to improve efficiency in resource management, trans-
parency and accountability, whilst finding additional and
alternative resources to promote sustainable development.
The recommendations for the sustainable management
of the WEF Nexus, based on a review of the literature,
exemplify the interrelation between WEF resources and
subsystems. Promoting the holistic and multi-sectoral
management of the WEF challenges will require
123
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
government support, education and awareness, cross-sec-
toral and multilevel cooperation between multiple stake-
holders, research and technological development,
innovations, and new production systems. The WEF Nexus
is a promising research topic which has gained increasing
academic interest in recent years, and it helps to outline
essential strategies for sustainable development and cli-
mate change adaptation. However, more comprehensive
studies must be developed to provide relevant data, infor-
mation and experiences from local and regional
perspectives.
Increasing awareness of the WEF Nexus represents a
practical opportunity to bring together actions aimed at
balancing the sustainable exploitation of ecosystems. By
aligning policies for the sustainability of the WEF Nexus
through research and development and practices, there will
be more resilient communities that are able to mitigate the
impacts of economic and environmental changes and adapt
to them. To this end, partnerships and collaboration
between countries, business and civil society can establish
new paths of development to improve the resilience and
welfare of the world’s population.
Most of the literature on the WEF Nexus focuses on a
macro-level perspective of this concept, whilst only a few
studies present a clear approach based on real cases,
quantitative analysis and modelling. Therefore, the litera-
ture requires more research and debates based on quanti-
tative and computational modeling, decision-making under
uncertainty, stochastic optimization and cost assessment.
Essentially, the complexity and uncertainty associated with
the WEF Nexus need to be addressed in order to success-
fully manage these systems.
This study proposes a comprehensive approach to the
complexities of the WEF Nexus, considering the risks and
stochastic elements. It addresses trade-offs and synergies
between WEF subsystems and external drivers of global
environmental, economic and demographic changes that
threaten WEF security, inhibiting the potential for sus-
tainable development. Thus, the recommendations pro-
posed in this study provide insights from the literature
which could guide public policies, innovation, research and
development, and practices toward the sustainable man-
agement of the WEF Nexus. The recommendations based
on the key arguments identified in the literature are:
• Improve management of natural resources, using tech-
nological innovations and techniques to increase the
resilience of critical infrastructure and avoid further
water, energy and food crises;
• Increase engagement of multiple stakeholders (govern-
ments, scientists, businesspersons, civil society) to
provide a more effective approach and increase the
synergies of the WEF Nexus, instead of promoting
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
negative externalities/trade-offs. This multi-stakeholder
approach increases holistic and grassroot innovations,
plans and policies to promote a more inclusive and
comprehensive governance;
• Probabilistic analysis and stochastic models are needed
to collect reliable data to assist decision-making aimed
at risk management. The WEF Nexus represents
complex challenges and multiple risks, which require
stochastic analysis to reduce uncertainties and support
multi-stakeholder engagement for cross-sectoral coor-
dination and policy making;
• Greater investment in research and development to
create innovations, technologies, techniques and poli-
cies that are science-based and coordinated among
multiple sectors. This contributes to promoting knowl-
edge and collecting data to achieve an effective
approach towards the WEF nexus and sustainable
development; and
• Increase interconnection and policy coordination
among economic sectors, avoiding unintended effects.
As examples, energy policies stimulating the produc-
tion of hydroelectricity need to consider the hydrolog-
ical forecast, urban water supply, irrigation and
subsistence fishing, which are affected by dams. Food
policies providing subsidies for soybean production in
Brazil need to take into account the management of
forests (deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon and
Cerrado), water reservoirs (supply, management and
effluents) and the effect of pesticides on health (both
human and environmental). Water policies must con-
sider the effects of changes in precipitation patterns and
prioritize the improved management of water resources
(to address insufficiencies with regard to water treat-
ment in cities, the management of rainwater, infras-
tructure to reduce water loss in the distribution system,
regulation and control of artisan wells, etc.).
Lastly, a limitation of this study is related to the
methodology (a scoping study). This was the most ade-
quate approach to address the research question and the
emergent theme of the WEF Nexus. However, further
studies should be conducted to develop quantitative indi-
cators and models to assess the complexities of the WEF
Nexus, based on risk and stochastic elements to increase
the reliability of the model. Thus, investing in practical
case studies and pilot projects to collect real data could
contribute to creating innovations for sustainable
development.
Acknowledgements This study was conducted by the Centre for
Sustainable Development (Greens), from theUniversity of Southern
Santa Catarina (Unisul), in the context of the project BRIDGE-
Building Resilience in a Dynamic Global Economy: Complexity
across scales in the Brazilian Food-Water-Energy Nexus; funded by
the Newton Fund, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa e Inovação do
Estado de Santa Catarina (FAPESC), Coordenação de Aperfeiçoa-
mento de Pessoal de Nı́vel superior (CAPES), National Council for
Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and the Research
Councils United Kingdom (RCUK).
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