Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Carlyle A. Thayer
China Conducts Another
Military Exercise in Paracels
August 23, 2020

China just announced its latest military exercise in the Paracel Islands will starting on
23 August. The timing is interesting, because it coincides with a meeting between
foreign minsters Pham Binh Minh and Wang Yi. The meeting will take place in Mong
Cai (Quang Ninh, Vietnam) to celebrate twentieth anniversary of the China-Vietnam
Border Agreement.
We request your assessment of this development.
Why is China conducting this military exercise at such a sensitive time like? Does
China’s military exercise have any implications for bilateral relatiobns?
ANSWER: China’s latest iteration of naval exercises to commence in the waters around
the Paracel Islands on 23 August is primarily a response to recent U.S. Navy exercises
in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea. It also overlaps with the Rim of the Pacific
Exercises currently being held in the waters around the Hawaiian islands (17-31
August). China was not invited to participate.
In other words, China’s military exercises are part of an action-reaction cycle. These
exercises are clearly aimed at three audiences, the United States; the South China Sea
littoral states, Vietnam included; and the Chinese people. Xi Jinping must demonstrate
that China is capable of standing up to the United States or – in the words of Chinese
propagandists – “expelling the United States” from Chinese waters.
The forthcoming meeting between foreign ministers Pham Binh Minh and Wang Yi to
celebrate the twentieth anniversary of the land border treaty will be used by China to
counter Secretary Pompeo’s call for an anti-Communist Party of China coalition in the
Indo-Pacific. This year, it should be recalled, the Vietnam and China Coast Guards
conducted their nineteenth joint fishery patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin from 21-13 April.
More recently, the Vietnam People’s Navy and the People’s Liberation Army Navy
conducted their 28th joint patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin from 25-26 June.
China’s forthcoming military exercises will carry the sub-text that Beijing is a rising
power that has sovereignty over the Paracels; and further, that Southeast Asian states
should join with China for regional peace and security and not rely on the United
States a country “outside the region.” In sum, China’s forthcoming military exercises
are not directly aimed at intimidating Vietnam.
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Chinese propaganda has already highlighted that China and Vietnam are two regimes
that share socialism and the U.S. is trying to split them.

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
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