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Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise: Proceedings of a Forum
RESPONDING TO THE THREAT

OF SEA LEVEL RISE
PROCEEDINGS OF A FORUM
Prepared by Steve Olson

for the
Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The subject of this publication is the forum titled Responding to the Threat
of Sea Level Rise held during the 2016 annual meeting of the National Academy of
Engineering.
Opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the forum
participants and not necessarily the views of the National Academy of Engineering.
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Suggested citation: National Academy of Engineering. 2017. Responding to the Threat

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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Con-

gress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution
to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are
elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia
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The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to ad-
vising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contribu-
tions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president.
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Preface
T
he headquarters building of the National Academies of Sciences,
Engineering, and Medicine on the National Mall in Washington,
DC, looks across the Vietnam Veterans and Lincoln memorials
toward the Potomac River. Some day there may be a berm on the Mall
that blocks the view of the Potomac.
As sea level continues to rise, so will the likelihood that the tidal
portions of rivers like the Potomac will overflow into the cities through
which they pass. Eventually, many of the world’s major cities may look
like those in the Netherlands, ringed by dikes, berms, and dams.
Sea level rise was a major topic of the annual meeting of the National
Academy of Engineering on October 9–10, 2016. Adaptation to it was
the subject of a plenary lecture, on the first day of the meeting, by
Robert J. Nicholls, professor of coastal engineering at the University of
Southampton.
On the second day a forum on the same topic featured Nicholls as
well as Bart de Jong, counselor for infrastructure and the environment at
the Royal Netherlands Embassy; Bret J. Muilenburg, commander of the
Naval Facilities Engineering Command; David Pearce, department man-
ager of regional engineering for Consolidated Edison; and Kathleen D.
White, head of the US Army Corps of Engineers’ Climate Preparedness
and Resilience Community of Practice. Moderated by global affairs and
economics journalist Ali Velshi, the forum was one of the most fascinat-
ing and informative held at an NAE annual meeting.
Adaptation to sea level rise was one of several mega-engineering
initiatives discussed at the meeting. These initiatives, ranging from space
travel to the creation of global communication networks to the explora-
tion of the subatomic world, extend the bounds of human capabilities

vi PREFACE
and services to society. They not only solve problems of great impor-
tance but also define new limits that become technical “records to be
broken” in the minds of the public and coming generations of engineers,
scientists, and others who are dedicated to advancing our world.
Yet mega-engineering initiatives often are seen as products of sci-
ence rather than engineering. While new scientific knowledge undoubt-
edly plays a role in such projects, I am puzzled by the absence of appro-
priate recognition of the engineering that created them, engineering that
is invariably remarkable and unique. Certainly the ability to cope with
rising sea levels will hinge on the ingenuity, creativity, and diligence of
engineers.
This summary of the forum, which also incorporates material from
Nicholls’ plenary presentation, outlines a rich and challenging set of
problems for engineers, scientists, and those who work with them.
The future rate and extent of sea level rise are highly uncertain, and
responses to higher water levels will need to reflect this uncertainty.
Major societal institutions such as the military, utility companies,
and city governments are taking measures to cope with sea level rise, and
their experiences provide valuable lessons that engineers need to take
into account. The measures involve different sectors of society and are
often international, requiring high levels of collaboration.
Moreover, the problem will extend over many generations, requiring
continuity of approaches and the continual preparation of new talent.
Public understanding of both the threat and possible ways to deal with
it is prerequisite to effective action.
At the core of the mission of the National Academy of Engineer-
ing are problems with just these characteristics. By focusing on topics
such as sea level rise, we seek to advance the state of knowledge, public
awareness and understanding of that knowledge, and the political will
to act on what we know.
C. D. Mote, Jr.
President
National Academy of Engineering

Contents
Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise 1

Projections of Future Sea Level Rise, 3
Consequences of Sea Level Rise, 4
Responding to Sea Level Rise, 5
Limits to Adaptation, 7
Resilience and the Corps of Engineers, 8
Protecting Naval Facilities and Operations, 11
Preparing Public Utilities to Meet Future Challenges, 13
Flood Protection in the Netherlands, 15
Discussion with Forum Participants 17

The Need for Collaboration, 17
Raising Public Awareness, 19
Responding to Large-Scale Changes, 22
Remaining Uncertainties, 23
The Need for Leadership from Engineers, 25
APPENDIXES
A Forum Agenda 29
B Panelists’ Biographies 31
vii


Responding to the Threat

of Sea Level Rise
T
en percent of the world’s approximately 7.5 billion people live
within 10 meters of sea level, and many more live at higher eleva-
tions but close to coastlines. Protecting people, structures, and
property as sea level continues to rise in the years ahead will be one of
the great mega-engineering challenges of the 21st century and beyond,
said Robert J. Nicholls, professor of coastal engineering at the Univer-
sity of Southampton, during the 2016 annual meeting of the National
Academy of Engineering.
Sea level changes, as measured by tide gauges, vary from place to
place. In Jacksonville, Florida, sea level rose at an average rate of 2.08
millimeters per year during the 20th century, or about 20 centimeters—
equivalent to about 8 inches—over those hundred years. This “is a sig-
nificant change,” said Nicholls, and “it is going to keep on going.” He
cited similar developments along the East Coast: in Norfolk, Virginia,
sea level rose at an average of 4.6 millimeters per year, and on Grand
Isle, Louisiana, approximately 9 millimeters per year, or about 90 cen-
timeters—3 feet—per century. In Juneau, Alaska, in contrast, sea level
has been falling. The same variability can be found all around the world,
Nicholls observed.
As these data demonstrate, sea level changes are determined by
more than the increasing height of the world’s oceans. They are the
result of several components, such as vertical movements of the land and
changes in ocean currents from such phenomena as El Niño.
In Alaska, for example, the land is rebounding after being pushed
down by the weight of glaciers during the last ice age. In other places,
such as the cities of Bangkok and Vancouver, which are built on deltas,
the land is subsiding because of groundwater extraction. In some places,

2 RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE
like Japan, earthquakes have caused the land to move up or down in

abrupt steps. “Whenever you think about sea level, you have to take
into account this local context,” Nicholls said.
To illustrate the effects of subsidence, Nicholls pointed to Tokyo,
which sank as much as 4.4 meters in the 20th century. Changes to
groundwater extraction practices have greatly reduced the sinking, “but
once you have subsided, you cannot
Tokyo sank as much as 4.4 get it back.” Today, 2 million people
meters in the 20th century. in Tokyo live beneath high tide ele-
“Once you have subsided, you vations because the land has sunk,
cannot get it back.” said Nicholls. Especially where sub-
sidence has been extensive, such as
in the area around Tokyo’s docks,
continued habitation relies on a major flood defense infrastructure.
In addition to deltas, small islands are particularly vulnerable to sea
level rise, explained Nicholls. The Maldives, for example, is the lowest
country on earth. It essentially consists of wave-formed coral atolls. Even
a small change in sea level would make such islands dangerous places to
live. “Forced abandonment is a very real possibility.”

RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE 3
Just a few million people live on small and vulnerable islands. But
hundreds of millions of people live on deltas. Nicholls acknowledged
that not all deltas are threatened by sea level rise, “but we are talking
about very large populations living very close to sea level.” Small islands
can be built up, as China is doing in the South China Sea. Perhaps deltas
could make greater use of the immense sediment loads carried by the
rivers that created them. “We have traditionally treated sediment like a
pollutant,” said Nicholls. “We put up dikes, we washed it out to the sea.
Can you [instead] use that sediment to build land and build elevation?”
PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE

Historical data suggest that sea level was relatively flat for several thou-
sand years before the 19th century, when data from a variety of sources
indicate that it began to rise. Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters
during the 20th century, said Nicholls. Most recently, global measure-
ments from satellites have calculated that it is rising at about 3.2 mil-
limeters per year, with an acceleration since 1993.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has esti-
mated that sea level could rise between approximately 0.2 and 1 meter
by 2100 (an estimate that includes the uncertainty incorporated in the
IPCC’s projections).1 The actual amount will depend partly on how
much the Earth warms during that period due to greenhouse gas emis-
sions into the atmosphere. But Nicholls cautioned that, even if emissions
stabilize, sea level will continue to rise by 30 to 40 centimeters, which is
“enough to cause significant problems.”
Another critical factor in sea level rise is how warming temperatures
will affect the melting of land-based ice. Particularly important are the
large ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, including the more sus-
ceptible ice sheet on West Antarctica. “If any of that melts, that could
have a significant effect on global sea level.”
Yet even these qualifications do not capture the full range of uncer-
tainty, said Nicholls. He often talks with people and organizations about
much larger and faster sea level rises than those projected by the IPCC.
1 Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE, eds. 2007. Climate Change
2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—Appendix I: Glossary. Contribution of Working

Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

“How much might sea level rise? What is the high-end risk that we face?
We do not understand that as well as we would like.”
CONSEQUENCES OF SEA LEVEL RISE

Sea level rise has complex interrelated impacts, Nicholls explained. To
begin with, it makes extreme events more extreme. Storms can cause
higher levels of inundation both from surging ocean waters and from
inland flooding. Erosion, sediment supply, flood management, and rec-
lamation can all affect storm surges, while catchment management and
land use can affect flooding.
Sea level rise can also cause wetland loss and change, saltwater
intrusion into surface waters or groundwater, and higher water tables
that impede drainage—and these impacts can be interconnected. For
example, changes in coastal ecosystems such as mangrove forests and
coral reefs can affect wave action, storm surges, and erosion.
Coastal development increases vulnerability to sea level rise. The
population living at or near sea level has grown dramatically, with an
associated increase in infrastructure. In many places, such as the East
and Gulf coasts of the United States, nuisance flooding has become
much more common because of the combination of sea level rise and
development.
“We are increasingly seeing floods occurring under what you might
call normal or blue sky conditions,” Nicholls said. Places like Atlantic
City might have water in the streets 30 or 40 days per year, whereas in
the 1960s that would have happened only 1 or 2 days a year. “A flood is
the sum of the mean, the tide, and anything the weather is doing . . . sea
level rise [reduces] the threshold that will cause events.”
Beyond nuisance flooding are major floods such as the ones that
killed hundreds of people in the Netherlands in 1953, Germany and
England in 1962, and New Orleans in 2005. “These are extreme events,
but they make the point that as sea level rises, you need a smaller
extreme event to have the same effects,” Nicholls said. Development
puts more people in harm’s way and will continue to do so as the resi-
dential and commercial development of coastal areas continues.
Sea level rise does not create
entirely new problems. Rather, it
“As sea level rises, you need a
smaller extreme event to have
is “showing you the problems you
[serious] effects.” already have,” Nicholls observed.
“If you are getting flooded by sea

level rise, you are probably flood prone today. It also allows you to assess
your current preparedness” to deal with sea level rise, “a very useful
reflection on today’s risks,…which is as important as—and maybe more
important than—the issue of sea level rise.”
RESPONDING TO SEA LEVEL RISE

An IPCC subgroup that tried to find any positive effects of higher sea
levels was unsuccessful. But Nicholls observed that the effects can be
mitigated. On the southern coast of England, where he works, the
number of events that could cause floods has increased—but the actual
number of floods has not, and in fact has possibly decreased.
Investments in flood defense, such as mobile gates that can be closed
when water levels are high, can reduce flooding with relatively modest
expenditures. “They have to depend on warnings to be operated, but
they are reducing the frequency of flooding in areas that [previously]
flooded very frequently.”
Some have argued that land values are going to fall as more people
think about the consequences of sea level rise, making it easier to buy
out those properties and move occupants to higher ground. Nicholls
considers this “an interesting thesis,” but especially with more valuable
property, adaptation is the more likely prospect. “It is going to come
down to economic kinds of questions.”
Approaches to Adaptation
According to the IPCC, adaptation consists of “adjustment in natural or
human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their
effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.” It
can involve a planned retreat from the coast, accommodation of higher
sea levels (e.g., elevation of structures above flood levels), or protection
from the sea (e.g., dikes).
Large areas of the Netherlands, for example, are below mean sea
level. They are kept dry by a large system of ring dikes and other flood
control measures, such as minimization of subsidence. In contrast, large
parts of New Orleans are also below sea level, but subsidence is con-
tinuing, so when floods occur they are deeper, cause more damage, and
pose more of a threat to life. “Trying to minimize subsidence is quite an
important thing to do.”

Other steps can reinforce and complement adaptation:
• It is important to educate the public about the problem.

• Monitoring and evaluation can help determine whether goals are
being met.
• Informatics and modeling can produce better warnings and
evacuations.
• Insurance can cover worst-case losses.
Many kinds of actions can “get us to a better place,” said Nicholls.

An important point, he added, is that “adaptation is a process.”
Because of the momentum inherent in the climate system, humans will
need to continue to adapt to high
sea levels even if global tempera-
“We can expect that our
tures are stabilized at a certain level.
children and grandchildren will
have to do more than we have “There is no magic silver bullet
done.” here that you can [use to] solve this
problem and walk away. The time
scales of sea level rise seem to be
very long. We expect it to rise for the 21st century, and probably the
22nd century and beyond—beyond any kind of timeframe we think
about. We can expect that our children and grandchildren will have to
do more than we have done.”
Flood Protection on the Thames

Another example of adaptation that Nicholls described is the system of
flood barriers in place to protect London. When a storm tide is forecast
in the North Sea, floodgates in the Thames River are closed to keep
London dry. They are part of a much larger system of defenses against
flooding, including 337 kilometers of dikes.
Many of these protections already take higher sea levels into account.
The Thames floodgates, for example, were built 50 centimeters (about
20 inches) higher than would be needed if sea level were constant.
However, adapting the overall system as sea level continues to rise will
require improving all the flood control systems on the Thames even as
the original structures are aging.
One possible approach to future sea level rise is to make major
investments to protect against events that might not happen or might
happen more slowly than expected. A better option, according to

Nicholls, is adaptive management that responds on an ongoing basis to

rising sea level and increasing risk. Under this approach, “we only do
things when we actually need to,” he said.
LIMITS TO ADAPTATION
Nicholls was once asked by a government agency in the United Kingdom
by how much sea level would have to go up to force drastic actions, such
as the abandonment of coastal cities. “They were expecting a number
like 80 centimeters, [but] that misses the whole point about how we can
adapt,” he said.
“I do not think there are any physical or technical limits at the pres-
ent time to adaptation as long as you have enough resources.… If you
really wanted a wall 40 meters high, we could build it. The question is,
Do you want that wall? Probably you do not. But it could be provided
if you did.”
As sea level continues to rise, the choices for protecting vulner-
able areas become starker. For example, the amount of sea level rise
that would require unavoidable choices between building massive and
expensive new barriers or abandoning parts of London is about 3 meters,
Nicholls said, which is above the levels projected for the 21st century.
“But the science can change,” he added. “These numbers can move.”
Under an adaptive management response, if sea level rise is overes-
timated, investments can be cut back, and if it is underestimated they
can be increased. One challenge is to link sea level projections with the
investments needed to protect coastlines to give officials enough time to
respond. A project in Southampton is working to do just that, Nicholls
said.
Economic and financial limits will be key issues. What can be
afforded? Social and political limits, such as attitudes toward risk and
confidence, also will play a role, and may vary from one place to another.
“What works in Europe may not work in the United States.”
Adaptation can be spontaneous or planned, private or public, proac-
tive or reactive, or combinations of these. Adaptation options also can
be combined into reinforcing bundles that are consistent with the idea
of resilient coasts.
“Sometimes the solutions will be easy and cost [very little], so it is
a no-brainer. Sometimes there may be real challenges. But at least you
start to think about those challenges today so you can be more prepared
for them if they do eventually emerge.”

With regard to proactive or reactive adaptations, Nicholls noted that

“we are very good at responding to what we observe,” whereas being
proactive rather than reactive remains a major challenge. “How do we
deploy all our technical knowledge and understanding in a joined-up
manner? We still tend to move toward a reactive approach.”
Simulations can provide information about disasters without hav-
ing to experience them in real life.
The Delta Commission in the Neth-
“We are very good at
responding to what we
erlands and the Thames Estuary
observe,” whereas being 2100 project looked into the dis-
proactive rather than reactive tant future and considered major
remains a major challenge. changes in sea level and the built
environment. “They argued for
intelligent defense,” said Nicholls.
“It was not about just pulling back and retreating. It was often about
intelligent attack and recognizing that adaptation is never completed. It
is a process.”
Another important step would be to conduct major planning studies
for all coastal cities and other threatened locations around the world.
“If you ignore sea level rise, it will come back to bite you,” Nicholls
concluded on a cautious note.
RESILIENCE AND THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS

The US Army Corps of Engineers has seen structures that were built in
the 1960s lose a foot due to sea level rise, reported Kathleen D. White,
a civil engineer who leads the Corps’s Climate Preparedness and Resil-
ience Community of Practice. The resulting chronic flooding is more
than a nuisance, she said. “You lose your transportation links; there
are…public health and safety issues. You can’t get the police, emergency
medical [personnel]. You can’t evacuate.”
A major part of the Corps of Engineers’ work involves making sure
that the country’s ports and commercial navigation system function in all
kinds of situations—and this infrastructure is typically right at sea level.
The Corps also protects and restores ecosystems such as the Everglades,
where saltwater intrusion is decimating native species and allowing
invasive species to spread. It is charged with protecting threatened and
endangered species, which often requires stopping the loss of habitat. It
seeks to reduce the risk of coastal storms, including the risk of shoreline
erosion. And it supports the Department of Defense and other services,

many of which are also at sea level. All of these responsibilities are com-
plicated by sea level rise, said White. “We need to manage them. That
is what engineering is about.”
The Corps of Engineers’ Resilience Initiative seeks to use engineer-
ing to prepare for threatening events. Its goals are to prepare both the
infrastructure and the people around it to absorb disruptions as much as
possible and recover quickly from an event. Adaptation “is not rebuild-
ing,” said White. “It is moving forward to a more resilient, better pre-
pared,…and easier to recover” state.
To increase resilience, the Corps uses infrastructure such as coastal
levees, storm surge barriers, seawalls and revetments, and detached
breakwaters. It also uses natural and nature-based features to attenuate
the wave energy that reaches the shore and causes damage; these include
engineered dunes and beaches, maritime forests and shrub communities,
barrier islands, oyster and coral reefs, and vegetated features. One dif-
ficulty with these natural features, according to White, is that they often
lack engineering reliability and performance information, making it hard
to use them to achieve a reliable degree of risk reduction.
“We can’t engineer our way out of every challenge,” she acknowl-
edged, whether because a solution is impracticable or economically or

politically unviable. In these cases, policy and management are required.

Relocation, flood proofing, and impact reduction are among possible
solutions to deal with risk. Engineers can support this work by iden-
tifying where events will occur in the future and the kinds of policies
and management that can make a
“We can’t engineer our way difference.
out of every challenge.” Some With regard to relocation, for
solutions are impracticable example, “typically, the Ameri-
or economically or politically
can response is, ‘No, I am going
unviable.
to stand right here. I am going to
rebuild. I am going to do the same
thing I always have. I am going to hold the line.’” But holding fast is
not always the right solution, said White, and piecemeal approaches can
make things worse. The relocation of houses or businesses one by one
can lead to public safety issues, difficulties supplying power or transpor-
tation, and other problems.
In contrast, the relocation of entire communities can keep them
intact. White pointed to the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw tribe in Isle de
Jean Charles, Louisiana, which recently received a Disaster Resilience
Grant from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development
(HUD) to relocate away from flood-prone areas. In Kivalina, Alaska, a
new Corps of Engineers revetment has given the community about 15
more years before it has to move. And the Quinault Indian Nation in
Washington state is moving a community from an exposed beach to a
higher area, where the new residents are designing their new community
to be what they want it to be.
“These people are making a more sustainable home that pays hom-
age to their culture and allows them to thrive in the 21st century rather
than spending a lot of time recovering from different kinds of events,”
said White.
The idea of being proactive has taken hold in the Corps, especially
since Hurricane Katrina, said White. After Katrina, a series of reports
called for the Corps and other government agencies to be prepared for
foreseeable future conditions such as drought, intense rainfall, and sea
level rise. The Corps has developed policies and technical guidance to
do that, and it has sought to incorporate those policies and technical
guidance into project planning. “To the extent that we can, as a federal
agency that is authorized and appropriated by Congress, we are trying
to make our approach more proactive.”

PROTECTING NAVAL FACILITIES AND OPERATIONS

Rear Admiral Bret Muilenburg, commander of Naval Facilities Engi-
neering Command and chief of civil engineers, is responsible for 22,000
personnel around the world who take care of Navy and Marine Corps
infrastructure at over 100 major installations. They plan, design, build,
and maintain facilities and deliver environmental, utility, and other
services.
“Sea level rise poses a real and unconventional threat to us and our
installations,” he said. “We must continue to take measures that we
know and understand today while accelerating our efforts to learn more
about what our next steps must be.”
The Navy protects and defends America, its allies, and its partners
from harm around the world. With its Coast Guard and international
partners, it ensures that the United States has access to international
waters, keeps shipping lanes open, provides humanitarian and disaster
relief, deters aggression, and encourages peaceful conflict resolution in
accordance with international law and norms. “Should that fail, your
Navy is ready to fight,” said Muilenburg. “Think of your Navy as Amer-
ica’s away team, where we never want a home game.”
As an example of the extent of the Navy’s responsibilities, Muilenburg
cited the one quarter of US jobs—38 million—that are directly or indi-

rectly tied to international trade. He also noted that 95 percent of all

international phone and internet traffic travels via underwater cables.
“The Navy, operating for and with our partners, ensures this free flow
of goods and communication and that it remains unimpeded.”
The Navy has installations around the world that mostly are located
at sea level, and many of its coastal facilities will be dramatically affected
by sea level rise, Muilenburg reported. They are exposed to flood-
ing, storm surge, erosion, and saltwater intrusion. “We have seen these
effects already. We are believers. We understand what we are facing, to
a degree. We need to understand a lot more.”
He mentioned a recent study by the Union of Concerned Scientists
that studied 18 military installations on the East Coast and the Gulf of
Mexico, 12 of which were Navy facilities. “It causes me great concern,”
said Muilenburg. By the end of the century, 70–95 percent of the Naval
Air Station Key West is projected to be inundated with daily flooding.
Muilenburg said that he “would
love to be able to engineer our way
“The better the science, the out of this with your help,” but
better the decision making and
the better that I can take care
doing so requires narrowing the
of...your tax dollars.” uncertainty associated with sea level
rise. “Are we talking about 3 feet?
Are we talking about 6 feet? That is
very important for all of us engineers to understand. The better the sci-
ence, the better the decision making and the better that I can take care
of…your tax dollars.”
Today the Navy is improving both its knowledge—for example,
through vulnerability assessments of its bases—and risk management
plans on how to prepare for and respond to events. It is mitigating
hazards for current installations, and has improved its design and con-
struction criteria. “We have a lot of infrastructure and a lot invested in
our installations. It is not practical to start over in very many places. We
must protect what we have through means that we understand.”
He acknowledged that there is much more the Navy should do.
First, it needs to work with the communities surrounding its installa-
tions. “Water does not honor the fenceline. It affects the community.”
Multidisciplinary coordination and cooperation will be critical to tack-
ling this problem, he said. That is happening, but the effort is “in its
infancy,” he said. “With this challenge, there is no rest for the weary.”
Muilenburg also pointed out that in the future the Navy may be
responding to more crises because of increased flooding, making it all

the more important to have resilient bases so that the Navy can launch
responses from them. Already it is responding to more humanitarian
crises and disaster relief, “whether it is…the northern Japan tsunami,
Philippine typhoon, or Indonesia earthquake.” To fulfill these obliga-
tions, the military has to be forward deployed. “You can’t do it from
Norfolk and San Diego.”
One of the great benefits of the Navy, he said, is to be “out there
every day—sailors and marines are ready to perform those missions.”
But fulfilling its responsibilities also requires allies and partners. No
nation can do it alone. “It takes a network of like-minded navies and
nations that are performing this mission together.”
PREPARING PUBLIC UTILITIES TO

MEET FUTURE CHALLENGES
The electric sector tends to think about sea level rise as part of the
broader topic of climate change, said David Pearce, manager of
Manhattan operations and engineering at Consolidated Edison. Climate
change affects individual power plants, the distribution infrastructure,
and electric power generation. In the future, higher temperatures will
be an issue for utilities everywhere as the demand for electricity surges.
Droughts could lead to less hydroelectric power generation.
As with sea level rise, impacts vary based on location and topogra-
phy. When Hurricane Sandy came through New York in 2012, what was

projected to be the impact of a 100-year storm turned out to be that of

a 500-year storm. A major generating station was lost for a week, which
put more than half a million people in Manhattan in the dark.
“When you lose electricity in this day and age, it is not simply a mat-
ter of, ‘Well, I can’t turn on my television, I can’t turn on my radio.’ In a
city, it is pumping water up to higher floors. It is people [having] to walk
up and down multiple stairs. Gas stations couldn’t pump gasoline, so the
transportation system fell apart. The cell phone towers ran out of power,
so communication fell apart.”
The ripple effect of the city
When Superstorm Sandy
losing electricity had widespread
knocked out power in NYC,
“gas stations couldn’t pump and dramatic impacts. And these
gasoline, so the transportation impacts in cities close to the sea
system fell apart. Cell phone are different from those elsewhere,
towers ran out of power, so Pearce observed.
communication fell apart.” Utilities have an array of mitiga-
tion strategies to counter the effects
of climate change, including—for
flooding—barriers, relocation, and hardening of the infrastructure. In
response to Hurricane Sandy, Pearce reported, equipment that was low
to the ground was elevated or relocated, equipment that could not be
elevated was hardened, and existing civil infrastructure was retrofitted
to prepare for storms.
As in other sectors, collaboration is essential. In some cases a city or
state may put up a barrier that protects utility equipment, while in other
cases the utility itself may have to take action.
Utilities also have a role in altering the overall trajectory of climate
change, according to Pearce. In New York state, the Public Service
Commission is leading the renewable energy division, which is setting
targets for greenhouse gas reductions and the architecture of the electric
grid.
As an industry, the electricity generating sector has promoted energy
efficiency and end-use management and invested in low-carbon or car-
bonless technologies for electricity generation. New technologies in
building sciences and in architecture have significantly reduced the use
of electricity per person and per square foot in Manhattan. All these
steps and more will be necessary to counter the effects of climate change.

FLOOD PROTECTION IN THE NETHERLANDS

The Netherlands has been fighting back the sea for more than a thou-
sand years, said Bart de Jong, the country’s counselor for infrastructure
and the environment. Today, a quarter of the country—with all its major
population centers and 60 percent of its population—is below sea level.
Another 60 percent of the country is prone to flooding. One-third of the
coastline is defended by natural dunes, the other two-thirds by dikes.
Much of the Netherlands is an alluvial plain—consisting of the delta
of the Rhine, Scheldt, and Meuse rivers—that is susceptible to flooding
and subsidence. A sizable portion of the country is also built on peat and
clay, which tends to subside when the land is cultivated. The stereotypi-
cal image of the Netherlands as a country dotted with windmills to keep
its fields dry is a product of this geohistory.
Flooding became more pronounced in the 20th century, with severe
floods in 1916, 1926, and 1953. The country’s first reaction was to build
more and higher dams, levees, and dikes. Thus the Delta Project—which
began after the flood of 1953 caused 1,800 deaths—cut off all the estu-
aries in the southwest of the country, and river levees elsewhere were
continually heightened.
Sea level rise is clearly a severe challenge for the Netherlands. More
extreme storms are expected to increase erosion of the dunes protect-

ing the coastline. Both increased river discharges expected in a warmer

world and decreased river discharges during times of drought could
cause problems. Furthermore, the country is sinking because of subsid-
ence and because melting ice caps in Scandinavia and Greenland are
causing the newly unburdened land to rebound and the Netherlands to
lower. Finally, the country’s population is growing, and the Netherlands
is already one of the most populous countries in the world.
In the 1990s threats of severe river flooding led the country to begin
rethinking its flood policy. Instead of flood protection, policies began to
emphasize flood management. “We had been building dams and levees
and dikes and pumping water out. Suddenly, we realized there is no
end to that. You can’t just keep raising your dikes forever and ever. We
realized we had to accommodate water.”
One way to accommodate water is to open up more space for river
overflows. To illustrate, de Jong
“You can’t just keep raising
showed an old branch of the Rhine
dikes forever and ever. River that has been reopened, giv-
We realized we had to ing the river a new place to flow
accommodate water.” during floods. Similar actions have
been taken in many other places in
the country, he said.
Another adaptation has been to create places in cities where excess
water can pool without causing damage. Areas along canals and in city
squares can be engineered to be covered by water during floods and
then drained when floodwaters recede. Underground parking garages
and other structures have been built with massive water basins to hold
floodwaters. Houses, greenhouses, and other structures can be built
to float on water and not be threatened by flooding, an approach that
is “definitely worth exploring further.” Through careful planning, a
multilayered approach can yield multiple and overlapping protections.
In addition, working with the US Army Corps of Engineers and
other US agencies, the Netherlands has been taking steps to improve
crisis management as a way to limit both the risks of floods and the
consequences of flooding. The government is also raising public aware-
ness about flooding and how to respond to floods. Residents can now
enter their postal code in an app to find out whether they are in a flood-
prone area and, if so, how they should prepare. And the country is pre-
pared for large-scale evacuations—it has acknowledged the necessity of
retreating from areas that are no longer considered viable for habitation.

Discussion with Forum Participants
THE NEED FOR COLLABORATION
A
prominent topic of discussion during the question-and-answer
portion of the forum was the need for organizations within and
across sectors to work together to prepare for future sea level rise.
Many stakeholders are involved, said Pearce, such as the scientists
who make predictions, the government agencies that set policy, and
the industries or agencies that build and maintain infrastructure. Each
group has to look at its contribution to the overall solution, he said. The
utility companies “are going to make sure the lights stay on so the trains
can keep running. The trains are going to do what they can to prevent
their tunnels from becoming backed up. Each sector is going to look
at what it needs to do.… It is a broad-spectrum approach.” Because
17

electricity is fundamental, electric utilities are “at the tip of the spear
making sure that [everything] is…working every day, [but] other sectors
are going to have to come in and make their own contribution.”
Muilenburg similarly made the case for coordination. “What makes
a base operate? It is the people.” Because most people do not live on
the base, “it makes no sense for me to raise the roads on the base if the
town doesn’t raise the roads at the same time,” he said. The same goes
for utilities. Many military installations receive utility services from the
surrounding towns. “If the local provider upgrades and raises the level
of sewage lines and I don’t do that on the base, again we have a problem.
There is a great amount of coordination that has to happen.”
He explained that engagement with the local population, joint land
use studies, and other collaborative efforts all need to be “enhanced to
a much greater level so that we get all echelons of government in a loca-
tion and all disciplines working together.” In particular, current funding
mechanisms for the federal government, industry, and municipalities are
all different. “It seems to me they have to be synchronized somehow for
this to work.”
As an example of a successful public-private partnership, Muilenburg
pointed to military housing, which “was in shambles” just 15 years ago.
The Navy formed a corporation with an industrial partner, in which
the Navy provided the housing and land and the private sector partner
secured financing and assumed control of the housing. “It has been
wildly successful,” he said.
He also mentioned utility energy-saving contracts, in which a private
sector company looks at all the technological improvements that can be
made at a base. Companies then make the investment and the mortgage
is paid back over the term of the contract.
Major infrastructure owners that control large spaces generally are
in charge of protecting those spaces, Nicholls said. But “when we think
about sea level rise affecting large areas, it has clearly got to be at some
level collective. There must be a role for government there as well. I
think it is trying to find the right balance. It is going to vary from place
to place.”
White agreed that “all of us are responsible.” In the United States,
the elected representatives of the public make policy, and government
agencies carry out that policy. “We try to do the best job we can to
engineer it or, in places where engineering isn’t potentially the right
solution, we try to come up with another kind of solution.… It is not a
silver bullet. It is silver buckshot.”

DISCUSSION WITH FORUM PARTICIPANTS 19
Interactions between the

public and private sectors can be “We try to come up with
especially critical, several speak- [different] solutions…. It is
not a silver bullet. It is silver
ers agreed. When the Netherlands
buckshot.”
buys land for floodplains, de Jong – White
explained, it looks for stretches that
are not densely populated, making
it cheaper to buy privately owned
property. In some cases, it may also create habitable areas in redeveloped
districts, such as residential zones next to a reclaimed waterfront, which
may offset expenditures. Another area of public-private cooperation
involves insurance; Nicholls cited the insurance industry in England,
which lobbies government for better flood defenses.
During a discussion of the private sector’s responsibility to build
structures that will not be damaged or rendered inoperable because
of flooding, Pearce noted that it is difficult to stop developers from
building in areas near water even if they are prone to flooding. “Look
at Brooklyn,” he observed. “The stoops [there], historians tell me, are
because…there would be regular flooding.”
However, White explained that the financial return can be short for
a private investment and much longer for a public investment. The job
of government then becomes to ensure that engineering and economic
solutions get the attention they need.
de Jong pointed out that if developers in the Netherlands could not
build in areas that are flood prone, “we could stop constructing now. As
I said, all of the big cities are under sea level.”
RAISING PUBLIC AWARENESS

Ali Velshi raised the question of how to increase public awareness of the
problem, and remarked that doing so is not impossible. “I remember
being on the southern tip of Manhattan [during Hurricane Sandy]. The
media were all there. The property owners were there. New York went
dark for a few days. Many parts of New York didn’t recover for months.
[It] got everybody’s attention.”
Pearce agreed that Hurricane Sandy helped create awareness of
the threat. “The severity of the impact from Hurricane Sandy really got
everyone’s attention. Very shortly after Hurricane Sandy, it was very easy
for us to get a billion dollars from our regulators to say, ‘Go ahead and
do the most pressing hardening work that you need.’ All the stakehold-

Moderator Ali Velshi engages the panel.
ers who were involved—the real estate interests, etc.—you really didn’t
hear much pushback. If anything, [they said], ‘Is that everything that
you need to do right now? Let’s make sure this doesn’t happen again.’”
New York City has over a trillion dollars’ worth of real estate, Pearce
added. “Once you get the attention of the people who own that trillion
dollars of real estate, you can really accomplish a lot.” The same is true
of cities in general: “Once you get their attention, you will begin to see
people saying, ‘Okay, let’s approach this problem.’”
White mentioned the inevitable decline in attention over time. “Peo-
ple who have suffered through an event like this, they think about it,
but not for too long.” The key, she said, is to make a business case for
preparedness, especially since the private sector often drives change in
the United States. “Even people in a state like Wyoming care about what
happens on the coastline, because our economy is intimately connected.
If they can’t get goods and services to port, they are not going to make
a sale.”
Nicholls reported that when he lived in the United States he heard
FEMA officials talking about a six-week window of opportunity after a
disaster, during which people would think differently. If public officials
are willing to make a strong case immediately after a major event, they

can make a difference. That means being prepared before events arrive.
“You’ve got [to have] a plan.…You can’t do the work in a short time. A
lot of preparation has to be done beforehand.”
Velshi also observed that people in the United States, along with
their elected representatives, are not necessarily ready to have a conver-
sation about sea level rise and its implications.
White added that not everyone in a large society is going to have
the same perspective. “We have to try to understand those perspectives.
We have to communicate with the people. We have to try to provide
them with the facts that are necessary for them to understand what is the
range of solutions and what are the pluses and minuses of each of those
solutions.” This is where engineers
come in, she said. Engineers “trans-
“We have to provide people late the science into actionable
with the facts for them to information for the people, for the
understand the range of
consultants, for the private sector.”
solutions and the pluses and
minuses of each solution.” But the Corps does not need to nec-
– White essarily provide a solution that fits
all those perspectives.
de Jong contrasted the situation
in the Netherlands, which “[has] been combatting sea level rise for cen-
turies. There is not a tough political debate on this. There is consensus.
Everybody realizes that it is a common interest.” In the Netherlands,
dealing with sea level rise is a collective responsibility. The government
takes care of the large-scale engineering works, and local water boards
that have existed for hundreds of years are responsible for the smaller-
scale projects and detailed water management. “It’s in our DNA that
that is something we have to take care of. That makes a difference for
countries that are faced with sea level rise for the first time.” However,
he acknowledged that flood control policies need support at the local
level if they are to succeed, and “raising awareness is something that we
are working hard on at the moment.”
Muilenburg advocated a case-by-case approach when political prob-
lems erect barriers. “It is not one size fits all around the world or even
[along] our coastlines…. There are installations that we are much more
concerned about than others.”
Education and governance are critical issues, Nicholls added. Bet-
ter information about sea level rise “is useless unless there is a client for
it that is willing to make those strategic decisions,” he said. However,
he clarified, the flow of information needs to be a two-way street. For

example, government agencies in the United Kingdom have been try-

ing to capture the knowledge and understanding of people who live
along the coast and engage in a dialogue with them. “That is the way
forward. Otherwise, it seems to lead to conflict rather than a more coop-
erative approach.” Though the approach can be difficult, “it is worth
exploring.”
RESPONDING TO LARGE-SCALE CHANGES

Prodded by Velshi and by questions from the audience, the forum
speakers speculated about possible responses to larger sea level increases
than those projected by the IPCC.
Future sea levels are “very, very uncertain,” said Nicholls. “That
is one of the core problems here. Many engineers are saying, ‘Give me
certainty and I can plan for it.’ Unfortunately, we can’t do that.”
Even the IPCC’s broad estimates of 20–100 centimeters of sea level
rise during the 21st century do not cover the full range of uncertainty.
In its planning, for example, the United Kingdom has a scenario that
calls for 2 meters of sea level rise by 2100. “We are not saying that will
happen,” said Nicholls, “but we are saying that it might.”
If all the ice on the planet were to melt, sea level would rise more
than 70 meters, according to Nicholls. The ice on Greenland repre-
sents about 7 meters of sea level rise, and the West Antarctic ice sheet
about 3 meters, but the time scales for complete melting of these ice
caps is “hundreds of years,” he said. “Two meters in the next hundred
years is a good upper estimate—although we can always be proved
wrong.”
Given this uncertainty, planning for sea level rise in major cities is
difficult, he continued. “We can see that we are going to deal with a
rise.… Taking an adaptive management approach means that we adapt
in an appropriate manner. We have
“If we plan, we can probably
to expect that we are going to have
make adaptive management a to commit resources, but I can’t tell
lot cheaper in the long run.” you how many resources.… If we
– Nicholls plan, we can probably make it a lot
cheaper in the long run.”
In the event of very large
increases, the choices are engineering solutions or “some kind of either
ungraceful or graceful retreat,” Nicholls said. “Hopefully, it would be
a graceful retreat.”

Muilenburg added that if sea level were to rise 6 feet, the Navy
would have to consider its options. But with a sea level rise of 2 feet,
“we are still in the nuisance flooding range. We [can have] reasonable
and affordable accommodations with engineering solutions. The real
question for me is in the unknown.”
REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES
The speakers acknowledged that many other uncertainties surround sea
level rise beyond its rate and extent.
White pointed out that, while much is known about structural solu-
tions, far less is known about cost reductions. “Are there different
materials [for structures]? Are there different ways to stage these so that
they can be adaptable over time in
“The idea that you could be a way that is less expensive?” Better
making the problem worse is foundations can support barriers of
something that you have to greater height, but is that cost effec-
think about.” tive over the life cycle of a struc-
– White ture? “Modeling will help us figure
out what to do.”
People are pushing for natural
protections, but the evidence for them is primarily anecdotal. “We need
information. We have evidence that marshes, for example, under certain
kinds of submergence, can actually increase the wave run-up at the land
surface. The idea that you could, in large events, be making the problem
worse is something that you have to think about.” Modeling the cost
effectiveness of structures and of phasing in materials would enhance
understanding.
Nicholls noted that much of the technology needed to deal with sea
level rise already exists, but a major challenge is to use it in coherent
ways. An important innovation would be in modeling to improve plan-
ning, forecasts, and responses. Similarly, engineering approaches such
as building dikes or nourishing beaches are mature technologies; less is
known about working with nature. “If you do put in a marsh, how much
less of a sea wall do you need? We don’t really know.”
A challenge for the federal government, said White, is the way
benefit-cost analyses are done. These analyses tend not to consider the
value of a stronger foundation many years in the future because the
value of that foundation cannot readily be calculated or is very low in
today’s dollars.

Audience members queue to ask questions.
Furthermore, funding is constrained—and likely to be even more

constrained in the future. “How do we do those economic analyses in
a way that supports adaptation in the future?” she asked. “We are a
federal agency. We abide by federal regulations. We follow the Office
of Management and Budget’s requirements for federal investments...
because they are trying to maximize the return on the investment to
the taxpayer.” She clarified that protections are not built to “as low as
reasonably possible” (ALARP) principles. “Our dam safety program
does include the ALARP principles, but otherwise it is driven by
benefit-cost [analyses], because that is what people want from their
government. They want us to use their tax dollars responsibly and not
overinvest.”
When Velshi asked how the Dutch have approached this problem,
de Jong acknowledged that there are limits to what can be built today
for eventualities in the long-term future. The Delta Fund runs to the
year 2030, and its funding is structured in such a way that it cannot
be constantly challenged by government. In addition, the science is
changing, and dikes are giving way to working with nature. Sand can
be deposited in places where it is carried along the coastline rather than
being washed quickly out to sea. “That is a cost-effective way because

you don’t need to replace your dredging equipment all the time. You
don’t affect ecosystems right in front of the coast.”
Muilenburg also acknowledged that “funding is a challenge.” The
Navy takes risks in maintaining its facilities even today, but “knowledge
has to precede funding.” What he needs is more information about the
tradeoffs between, for example, funding the shoreline at a naval station
or a new ship. One possibility would be innovative funding mechanisms
such as those now used to build military housing.
Nicholls made the point that the value of current investments
depends on the assumed discount rate, or the value of money spent
today compared with money spent in the future. This turns on a philo-
sophical question of “how much you value the future,” he said. “Some
people argue that the discount rates are far too high, which would mean
that we would have very different decisions.” These kinds of decisions
inevitably involve the political arena.
White noted that, in the United States, the Office of Management
and Budget (OMB) specifies a discount rate. “We must use that discount
rate, but it doesn’t prevent us from conducting sensitivity analyses to the
discount rate,” she said. “If we look at a very low discount rate, we are
able to justify adaptation measures that bring us past the 50-year eco-
nomic analysis period that OMB requires. As engineers, our horizon is
100 years. We have a struggle for adaptation between 50 years and 100
years. That is where our big problem is.”
Pearce elaborated. Benefit-cost analyses dictate that some assets be
hardened and others left in place to ride out the flood. “If we were to
harden those and make them totally submersible, it would be an abso-
lutely huge bill.... If you can ride through an event and save yourself
$200 million, then it is not hard to get the stakeholders to buy into it.”
THE NEED FOR LEADERSHIP FROM ENGINEERS

Forum participants and audience members agreed that engineers have
a unique and pivotal role to play in responding to sea level rise. David
Dzombak of Carnegie Mellon University said that “engineers need to be
prepared to step up and lead the discussion.” This will require changes
in engineering education, he continued, so that engineers are better
prepared to deal with uncertainties, can learn about adaptive manage-
ment, and are not simply waiting to be tasked in response to a disaster.
Wayne Clough, former secretary of the Smithsonian Institution,
went on to say that engineers need “to own this problem. We have let

our scientific brethren carry the brunt of this argument. Engineers have
stood back.... Today, it is our problem. We need to be there. We need
to be part of it.”
White called for interdisciplinary approaches. “Engineers have to
make room for the social scientists to come in. The old stereotype of
the engineer is dead.... If we have a product and we can’t communicate
it, whether in writing or orally or through graphics, then we don’t really
have a product.”
Several speakers pointed to links between responses to sea level rise
and international development. Nicholls advocated joining the adapta-
tion and development agendas to build a more viable economy and
secure more resources. “You can see adaptation as being an important
component of development,” he said. And Muilenburg mentioned the
work of the US military in devel-
“If we have a product and we oping countries. “It is a very effec-
can’t communicate it, whether tive approach that brings people
in writing or orally or through together and builds capacity.”
graphics, then we don’t really White noted that engineers in
have a product.”
the United States tend to think that
– White
solutions move from the developed
to the developing world. In fact,
many solutions can move in the
opposite direction. For example, Bangladesh and Cuba have greatly
reduced hurricane-related deaths through preparedness. “The neigh-
bors are connected. They know exactly what to do. Nobody gets left
behind. [Those are] simple solutions that we can use here.”
Pearce, who has lived in Jamaica, concurred. Houses there are made
primarily out of cinderblock and steel. “Why? Because we have hur-
ricanes, a lot of them. If a hurricane passes through Jamaica, I don’t
expect to hear that more than maybe four people died from it. There is
going to be one crazy person who goes for a stroll. There is going to be
one person who tries to drive across a river, and someone has a heart
attack. You don’t find that 200 people died from a hurricane in Jamaica,
because we build for it using appropriate technology for the country.”
A final topic of discussion was the need to get young people involved
in addressing the problem. According to de Jong, the Netherlands was
having trouble getting young people to attend technical universities to
study hydraulic engineering, but that has been changing in recent years,
partly as a result of campaigns to attract young people to those careers.
Nicholls similarly reported that students have been coming to the

university where he teaches eager to learn about climate change. “That

is one of the things that motivates them. Rather than giving them courses
on climate change, we embed it into the whole program.” By teaching
about climate change everywhere it is relevant, universities can make the
subject “practical and useful in their careers,” he said.
Clough added that the Grand Challenges Scholars Program repre-
sents “a tremendous opportunity” to get young people involved, not
only in the United States but around the world.
Christina Chang, a PhD student
working in a materials engineering Young engineers “are excited
laboratory at Harvard, provided to take on this mantle and
an encouraging note at the end of innovate toward solutions….
the discussion. She said that young There is a lot of hope.”
– Christina Chang
engineers “are humbled by the
progress that has been made by all
of the present and past scientists
and engineers.” Young engineers “are excited to take on this mantle
and innovate toward solutions,” she said. “There is a lot of hope.”


Appendix A
Forum Agenda
Annual Meeting Forum
Adaptation to Sea Level Rise
Monday, October 10, 2016

9:30 a.m.–12:30 p.m.
National Academy of Sciences Building
Washington, DC
Welcome
C. D. Mote, Jr., President, National Academy of Engineering
Forum Discussion
Moderator: Mr. Ali Velshi, Global Affairs and Economics Journalist
Mr. Bart de Jong, Counselor for Infrastructure and the Environment,

Royal Netherlands Embassy
Rear Admiral Bret J. Muilenburg, Commander, Naval Facilities Engi-

neering Command
Professor Robert J. Nicholls, Professor of Coastal Engineering, Univer-

sity of Southampton
Mr. David Pearce, Department Manager of Regional Engineering, Con-

solidated Edison
Dr. Kathleen D. White, Civil Engineer, US Army Corps of Engineers
29


Appendix B
Panelists’ Biographies
BART DE JONG is counselor for Infrastructure and the Environment

at the Royal Netherlands Embassy in Washington. He covers relations
with counterpart US government agencies, multilateral institutions,
NGOs, and the US private sector. Policy areas include water manage-
ment, infrastructure, transport, climate, and the environment.
He joined the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment in
1988 and served in various international divisions, explaining develop-
ments in Dutch water management and coastal defense
policies to foreign delegations. He was posted as attaché
at the Royal Netherlands Embassy in Jakarta, where he
worked on bilateral cooperation in river basin manage-
ment and the Jakarta Flood Control Project. He also
was director of the Yangtze River Intermodal Transport
Project, a Chinese-Dutch collaboration that encom-
passed port development along the Yangtze River and
its estuary.
In 2004–2009 he was posted at the EU’s Permanent Representation
of the Netherlands in Brussels. Before his posting to Washington, he
was head of the Shipping Division of the Maritime Directorate in the
Netherlands.
Mr. de Jong holds a master’s degree in human geography from the
State University of Utrecht, with minors in development economics and
international political relations.
REAR ADM. BRET MUILENBURG assumed his duties as com-

mander, Naval Facilities Engineering Command, and Chief of Civil
Engineers in November 2015.
31

His operational tours of duty include assignments with Naval

Mobile Construction Battalions 62, 133, and 7; the 30th Naval Construc-
tion Regiment and Task Force Forager, theater engineers for Interna-
tional Security Assistance Force Joint Command, Afghanistan. He made
numerous peacetime and contingency deployments, including Bosnia-
Herzegovina, Iraq/Kuwait, and Afghanistan. Other assignments include
assistant resident officer in charge of construction, Naval
Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia; shops engineer, US
Naval Academy, Annapolis; environmental and plan-
ning officer, Naval Air Station Sigonella, Italy; produc-
tion officer, Public Works Center Jacksonville, Florida;
staff member, Civil Engineering Readiness Division of the
Office of the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Fleet
Readiness and Logistics); staff member, Office of the
Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Installations and Environment; head
detailer and community manager, Civil Engineer Corps; commanding
officer, Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) Hawaii, and
regional engineer, Navy Region Hawaii. Before assuming command of
NAVFAC, he was commander of Naval Facilities Engineering Com-
mand Pacific and the Pacific Fleet Civil Engineer.
Rear Adm. Muilenburg is a registered professional engineer in
Virginia, a member of the Defense Acquisition Corps, and qualified as
a Seabee Combat Warfare officer. He is a 1984 graduate of the US Naval
Academy, where he received a bachelor of science in mechanical engi-
neering. He also holds an MS in engineering management from George
Washington University and an MS in environmental engineering and
science from Stanford University. In addition, he completed the Execu-
tive Education Advanced Management Program at Duke University’s
Fuqua School of Business.
ROBERT J. NICHOLLS has studied coastal processes, coastal hazards,

and their solution for 25 years and established an international reputa-
tion on climate change in coastal areas, especially potential impacts and
adaptation responses. A distinctive dimension of his research has been
consideration of the coastal zone as a series of interacting systems, an
approach that facilitates policy analysis.
He has advised national governments (e.g., the UK, Netherlands,
Singapore, Maldives) and intergovernmental organizations (e.g.,
OECD), including as a lead author on five reports of the Intergovern-
mental Panel for Climate Change assessment process, and a review edi-

APPENDIX B 33
tor in the most recent (2014) assessment. He coleads the World Climate
Research Program Sea Level Rise Grand Challenge to deliver science in
support of impact and adaptation assessment. He is also involved in the
following research projects, including as principal investigator: (1) Inte-
grating Coastal Sediment Systems (iCOASST)—a consortium project on
predicting decadal coastal morphological evolution; (2) ESPA Delta—
a project of Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation
(ESPA), examining the future of ecosystem services and
human well-being in coastal Bangladesh; and (3) Deltas,
Vulnerability, and Climate Change: Migration and Adap-
tation (DECCMA)—examining adaptation to climate
change in the Volta, Mahanadi, and Ganges-Brahmaputra
Deltas, with a focus on migration.
He was awarded the Roger Revelle Medal by the
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission in 2008; the award rec-
ognizes “outstanding contributions to the ocean sciences by inspired
researchers who communicate their knowledge and global vision of
the challenges facing our planet in order to shape a better future for
humankind.”
DAVID PEARCE is the department manager of Manhattan Operations

Engineering at Consolidated Edison, responsible for ensuring that the
city’s electric grid provides best-in-class reliability to one of the world’s
most important financial and cultural centers, including the develop-
ment of resilient designs to address natural or human
initiated disturbances. He has held a variety of positions
in Con Edison, including manager of energy services,
project manager for distributed generation, and transmis-
sion planning engineer. He was deeply involved in Con
Edison’s response to Hurricane Sandy, and witnessed
firsthand the impact of ocean inundation of electric infra-
structure. His group is now responsible for designing and implementing
system upgrades to allow the Manhattan electric grid to withstand a
similar flooding event in the future.
Mr. Pearce holds a BSc in electrical engineering from the University
of the West Indies (Trinidad & Tobago), an MS in regulatory policy
and communications technology from the University of Strathclyde
(Glasgow), and an executive master’s in technology management from
Columbia University.

KATHLEEN D. WHITE, a registered professional engineer, leads the

US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate Preparedness and Resil-
ience Community of Practice and has over 28 years of experience in the
USACE.
Her responsibilities include development of policy, technical guid-
ance, methods, and tools to support climate preparedness and resilience.
Her work reflects extensive interagency and expert col-
laboration in the areas of climate change that are related
to USACE mission and operations, particularly the Civil
Works program and water resources management. Topics
include sea level change impacts and adaptation, hydro-
logic nonstationarity, changing reservoir sedimentation,
and climate vulnerability analyses affecting coastal proj-
ects, watersheds, reservoirs, and supply chains. She is also
responsible for implementation of climate preparedness and resilience
in USACE projects, including agency technical review and oversight of
policy and guidance.
She received a 2013 GreenGov Presidential Award: Climate Cham-
pion for her role in the interagency team that developed the Sea Level
Rise Tool for Sandy Recovery. She was selected as the USACE 2014
Elvin R. “Vald” Heiberg III “Engineer of the Year” and as a 2015 Top
Ten Federal Engineer of the Year by the National Society of Professional
Engineers.
Dr. White holds BS and MS degrees in civil engineering and a PhD
in civil and environmental engineering.
ALI VELSHI was most recently the host of “Ali Velshi on Target” a
nightly prime-time show on Al Jazeera America with debates, interviews,
and on-the-ground reporting. He has reported from the US presidential
campaign trail and from Turkey on ISIL and the Syrian
refugee crisis, from Tehran on the days leading up to the
nuclear deal, and on the debt crisis in Greece.
He was previously at CNN, where he was chief busi-
ness correspondent, anchor of “World Business Today,”
host of the weekly business roundtable “Your Money,”
and cohost of “American Morning.”
In 2010 Mr. Velshi received a National Headliner Award for Busi-
ness & Consumer Reporting for “How the Wheels Came Off,” on the
near collapse of the American auto industry. During the global financial
crisis, he appeared on a number of national TV shows to explain the

APPENDIX B 35
causes of the meltdown in plain terms. He is the author of Gimme My

Money Back (Sterling and Ross, 2008) and coauthor with CNN’s Chris-
tine Romans of How to Speak Money (Wiley, 2010).
Born in Kenya and raised in Canada, Mr. Velshi graduated from
Queen’s University in Ontario with a degree in religion. He serves on
the boards of trustees of the X-Prize Foundation, Seeds of Peace, and
Chicago History Museum, and is a member of the Council on Foreign
Relations.


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Responding to the Threat of Sea Level Rise 1

Discussion with Forum Participants 17

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Responding to the Threat

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2 RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE

like Japan, earthquakes have caused the land to move up or down in

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RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE 3

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE

2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—Appendix I: Glossary. Contribution of Working

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4 RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE

CONSEQUENCES OF SEA LEVEL RISE

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RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE 5

RESPONDING TO SEA LEVEL RISE

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6 RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE

Other steps can reinforce and complement adaptation:

• It is important to educate the public about the problem.

Many kinds of actions can “get us to a better place,” said Nicholls.

Flood Protection on the Thames

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RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE 7

Nicholls, is adaptive management that responds on an ongoing basis to

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8 RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE

With regard to proactive or reactive adaptations, Nicholls noted that

RESILIENCE AND THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS

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RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE 9

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10 RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE

politically unviable. In these cases, policy and management are required.

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RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE 11