Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Carlyle A. Thayer
Crystal Ball Gazing: Predicting
Vietnam’s New Leadership
August 6, 2020

We would like your predictions regarding who might become Vietnam's next party
secretary general, president, prime minister, chairperson of the National Assembly,
minister of defense and minister of public security. Also, please provide some
background for your selections.
ANSWER: According to Chỉ thị Số 35-CT/TW (May 30, 2019) issued by the Politburo, a
decision on age eligibility for candidates for the top leadership positions will be made
next month. If current policy remains unchanged nine current Politburo members who
will be over 65 in September will be required to retire.
According to Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) Regulation 214 (February 2020), the
Central Committee has the authority to grant exemptions to the 65-year mandatory
retirement rule. Exemptions are granted to exceptional individuals.
At present there are seven remaining members of the Politburo who are eligible for
re-election. This number is likely to be reduced to six as Hoàng Trung Hải is very likely
to retire because recently he received a reprimand for mismanagement.
If an exemption is granted there will be seven individuals qualified for election to the
posts of party secretary general, state president, prime minister and chair of the
National Assembly.
In addition, those members of the Politburo who have completed two full terms in
office, such as the Secretary General, Minister of National Defence and Minister of
Foreign Affairs, are not eligible for re-election to the office they are currently holding.
But they can remain on Politburo for more than two terms.

Here is my prediction of who will be elected at the thirteenth national party congress
scheduled for early 2021:

Secretary General: Trần Quốc Vượng stands out as the most qualified of all the likely
candidates. He has extensive experience in the Supreme People’s Procuracy and the
central party apparatus as Chief of the VCP Central Committee (CC) Office (2011),
member of the VCP Secretariat (May 2013) and head of the Central Inspection
Commission (2016). His appointment as Standing Member of the Central Committee
Secretariat in March 2018 established his elevated seniority in the party’s pecking
order. He is a native of northern Thai Binh province which is a plus.
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President: It is uncertain at present whether Vietnam will revert to the old “four pillar”
leadership structure or retain the present “three pillar” structure whereby the party
Secretary General concurrently holds the office of state president. This, in my opinion,
is the most difficult prediction to make.

If the “three pillar” structure is retained Vượng will automatically become state
president concurrently.

If the “four pillar” structure is restored, Phạm Bình Minh would be a strong candidate
because he has extensive experience in government as Deputy Prime Minister and he
will have served as foreign minister for two terms. Long experience in government is
one of the major criteria for state president. Minh is widely known internationally,
speaks English fluently, and holds a M.A. degree from Tufts University in the United
States. All of these factors would serve Vietnam well on the international stage,
especially in Vietnam’s relations with its strategic partners.
Prime Minister: Vương Đình Huệ appears the most qualified among the eligible
candidates. Before his appointment as Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of the
Hanoi Party Committee, Huệ was Chief State Auditor, Minister of Finance, and head
of the Central Economic Commission. He hails from Nghe An province.
Chair of the National Assembly: There are two grounds for selecting Trương Thị Mai.
First, she appears the most qualified among the eligible candidates. Mai holds a B.A.
in Law and a Master in Public Administration degree, was a National Assembly deputy
from the tenth (1997) to the thirteenth legislatures (2016), and was elected to the
Central Committee in 2011. Second, she is the only woman left among Politburo
incumbents.
Minister of National Defense: General Lương Cường, member of the Secretariat of the
VCP Central Committee, member of the Standing Committee of the Central Military
Committee, and Director of the General Political Department of the Vietnam People’s
Army. Cường would be following in the steps of the incumbent General Ngô Xuân Lịch
who headed the General Political Department before his selection as Minister of
National Defence.
Minister of Public Security: There has been persistent speculation that an outsider is
being considered for this position. One name that has been suggested is Phan Đình
Trạc, a member of the VCP CC since 2011 and is currently Secretary of the Central
Committee and head of the Central Internal Affairs Committee.
Tô Lâm is currently in his first term as Minister of Public Security. At 63 years of age
there is no apparent reason why he should not be reappointed to his present post.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Crystal Ball Gazing: Predicting Vietnam’s New
Leadership,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 6, 2020. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.