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Transportation Research Procedia 44 (2020) 61–68

LOGI 2019 – Horizons of Autonomous Mobility in Europe

LOGI 2019 – Horizons of Autonomous Mobility in Europe
The Regression and Correlation Analysis of Carried Persons by
The Regression and Correlation Analysis of Carried Persons by
Means of Public Passenger Transport of the Slovak Republic
Means of Public Passenger Transport
a,
of the Slovak
a
Republic
Eva Brumercikovaa,* and Bibiana Bukovaa
a
Eva Brumercikova * and Bibiana Bukova
University of Zilina, Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communication, Department of Railway Transport, Univerzitná 1,
a
University of Zilina, Faculty of Operation and Economics of026 01 Žilina,
Transport andSlovakia
Communication, Department of Railway Transport, Univerzitná 1,
026 01 Žilina, Slovakia

Abstract
Abstract
The increase of environmental awareness of the population, technical innovations in transport, and the improvement of transport
services
The quality
increase moderately increase
of environmental the growth
awareness of the of public passenger
population, technical transport also in the
innovations Slovakand
transport, Republic. On the other
the improvement of hand, the
transport
services
growth of quality moderately
the living increase
standard, the growth of
the employment public
rate passenger
and the price of transport
personalalso in fulfils/exceeds
cars the Slovak Republic. On theof
the capacity other
the hand, the
transport
growth of the In
infrastructure. living
orderstandard, the employment
to determine an effectiverate and the
strategy price
of the of personalofcars
development fulfils/exceeds
passenger transportthe capacity
there of theregression
are needed transport
and correlationInanalyses
infrastructure. order toof transportanperformances
determine in public
effective strategy of thepassenger transport
development in the Slovak
of passenger Republic.
transport there areThe articleregression
needed presents
and correlation
results of analyses analyses of transport
of transport performances
performances in passenger
in public public passenger
transporttransport in the Republic
in the Slovak Slovak Republic.
since 1995The article
until 2017.presents
Based
results
on the of analyses
realised of transport
analysis performances
of carried persons ininthepublic passenger
Slovak Republic transport in the
there are Slovak Republic
introduced regressionsince
and 1995 until 2017.
correlation Based
analyses of
selected
on factors where
the realised their
analysis of impact
carried on the transport
persons performance
in the Slovak itselfthere
Republic is anticipated.
are introduced regression and correlation analyses of
selected factors where their impact on the transport performance itself is anticipated.
© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
This
© is an
2019 Theopen accessPublished
Authors. article under the CC BY-NC-ND
by Elsevier Ltd. license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review
This is an line:
open Peer-review
access article under
under responsibility
the CC BY-NC-ND
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the scientific
license thecommittee of –the LOGI 2019 – Horizons of
of https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
LOGI 2019 Horizons of Autonomous Autonomous
Mobility in Europe.
Peer-review line: Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the LOGI 2019 – Horizons of Autonomous
Mobility in Europe
Mobility inpublic
Keywords: Europepassenger transport, regreession and correlation analysis, Fisher´s criterion
Keywords: public passenger transport, regreession and correlation analysis, Fisher´s criterion

1. The Introduction and Analysis of Transport Performances in Public Passenger Transport in the Slovak
1. The Introduction and Analysis of Transport Performances in Public Passenger Transport in the Slovak
Republic
Republic
From the point of view of the national economy the development of transport sector is a key process which
From the
interferes in point of view
a whole seriesofofthe national
other economy
industries the development
through of transport
its implications. (Bartuškasector
et al.is 2016)
a key Therefore
process which
it is
interferes
inevitable in a whole series
to coordinate of activities
related other industries throughthe
and to develop itstransport
implications.
sector(Bartuška et so
effectively, 2016) Therefore
al.significant it in
synergies is
inevitable
relation to toother
coordinate
sectors related
will beactivities
generated.and(Blaho
to develop
et al. the transport
2017) One ofsector effectively,
fundamental so significant
problems synergies
of public passengerin
relation to other sectors will be generated. (Blaho et al. 2017) One of fundamental problems of public passenger

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +421 41 513 34 17.

* Corresponding eva.brumercikova@fpedas.uniza.sk
E-mail address:author. Tel.: +421 41 513 34 17.
E-mail address: eva.brumercikova@fpedas.uniza.sk
2352-1465 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
This is an open
2352-1465 access
© 2019 Thearticle under
Authors. the CC BY-NC-ND
Published license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review line:
This is an open Peer-review
access underthe
article under responsibility
CC BY-NC-ND of thelicense
scientific committee of the LOGI 2019 – Horizons of Autonomous Mobility in Europe
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review line: Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the LOGI 2019 – Horizons of Autonomous Mobility in Europe

2352-1465  2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the LOGI 2019 – Horizons of Autonomous Mobility in Europe.
10.1016/j.trpro.2020.02.010
62 Eva Brumercikova et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 44 (2020) 61–68
2 Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

transport is a constantly decreasing ratio of public and non-public (individual) transport. Figure 1 presents the ratio
of performances of public and non-public transport, and then Figure 2 presents the division of labour of public and
non-public passenger transport within the transport performance. The data used to form the figures were obtained
from statistical data of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic. (Caban et al. 2017); (Černá et al. 2017)

The Ratio of Performances of Public and Non-Public Passenger Transport

45000
40000
mill. passenger kilometres

35000
30000 22335
25000 26039 28229
24657 27627 27974
26952 26987 27263 27373
20000
15000
10000 19274
12733 13575 10986
5000 8702 9123 8971 9099 10020 10447
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Public passenger transport Non-Public passenger transport

Fig. 1. The Ratio of Performances of Public and Non-Public Passenger Transport Source: Datacube .

The Division of Labour of Public and Non-Public Passenger Transport

100,00
90,00
80,00
70,00 53,68
65,95 65,73 71,99
60,00 75,59 74,74 75,24 75,05 73,38 72,81
in %

50,00
40,00
30,00
20,00 46,32
34,05 34,27 28,01
10,00 24,41 25,26 24,76 24,95 26,62 27,19
0,00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

The Division of labor of public passenger transport The Division of labor of Non-Public passenger transport

Fig. 2 The Division of Labour of Public and Non-Public Passenger Transport Source: Datacube

Based on the figures we may state that as long as the ratio of public and non-public transport was almost the same
in 1995, then the share of public passenger transportstarted to decrease until 2014. Since 2015 an increase of the
share of public passenger transport induced with the introduction of free transport for students and pensioners has
been seen within rail passenger transport. However, even despite this government measure public passenger
transport has not reached the values of the year 2005. (Kampf et al. 2016) There is a negative effect of burdening the
road-traffic infrastructure with individual automobile transport - there exist time losses from congestions, and thus a
negative impact on the economic activity of the population. (Dolinaová 2016)
 Eva Brumercikova et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 44 (2020) 61–68 63
Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000 3

2. The Regression and Correlation Analysis of Selected Factors per the Number of Carried Persons in Public
Passenger Transport

For the regression and correlation analysis the following statistical data were selected for factors in case of which
an impact on performances in public passenger transport is anticipated (Konečný et al., 2019); (Stopka et al., 2018):
 the number of inhabitants of the Slovak Republic - it is assumed that with an increasing/decreasing number
of inhabitants the number of carried persons by means of public passenger transport increases/decreases
respectively,
 the average monthly wage - a potential impact of the average wage on the degree of individual motoring is
assumed,
 the average unemployment rate - it is assumed that with a decreasing unemployment rate the number of
carried passengers will increase,
 the average price of fuel - it is assumed that with an increase of the price of fuel the number of carried
passengers by means of public passenger transport will increase. (Černá et al. 2018)

To verify the impact, i.e. the dependency and independency of selected factors on the number of carried
passengers by means of public passenger transport, a regression model was used. It is an econometric model which
is drawn up using a system of equations. (Kolarovszki et al 2015) Starting prerequisites for drawing the models up
are data files which are obtained from statistical offices data and industrial databases. The econometric model
expresses quantitative dependencies among individual quantities. The examined phenomena have a quantitative
dimension in econometric models where mutual relations of quantities play the role of variable quantities in the
equations (Ewhrudjakpor et al., 2019); (Ližbetin et al. 2018).
Dependencies among individual quantities are expressed via equations in econometric models; each equation
explains a condition or a development of one variable being explained at a time. As long as n variables are
explained, n equations are formed. (Madleňák et al. 2018) (Ľupták et al. 2019) Relations among variables are
expressed via regression equations in econometric equations, resulting into the fact that a regression equation
contains an explained variable, which is usually expressed with a symbol y, some explaining variables (e.g. x 1, x2...
xn), some parameters (coefficients) of the regression equation (e.g. b 0), which are bound to one of explaining
quantities, some parameters of explaining quantities (e.g. b 1... m), a quantity of a random component, and error of
observation (e.g. u). If parameters of b 0 and b1 variables take numerical values, then the equation y = b 0 + b1x is a
regression line of the y variable with regard to the x variable. In this case it is an expression of the y variable using a
linear relation, and such a regression is called a linear regression. (Mikolaj et al. 2004)
Table 1 presents statistical data required for the solved regression task. In this problem the number of carried
passengers by means of public passenger transport will represent an explained variable y (passengers travelling by
means of rail passenger transport and road bus transport were taken into account), and the explaining variables, i.e.
xi will represent the number of inhabitants of the Slovak Republic, the average monthly wage in the Slovak
Republic, the unemployment rate in the Slovak Republic given in percents and the average price of fuel (the average
of price of petrol and diesel). Data which were not possible to obtain are labelled with the symbol (-) in the table and
will not be considered for the sake of calculation. (Gnap et al., 2018); (Trpisovsky et al. 2014)

Table 1. Statistical Data of an Econometric Model Source: [based on: 5].

Average
Passenger Average monthly unemployment Average price of
transport by Population in wage in Slovak rate in Slovak fuel in Slovak
Rok public transport Slovak Republic Republic Republic Republic
2000 602531 5398657 379 17,9 -
2001 601254 5402547 410 18,6 -
2002 596043 5378951 448 17,5 -
2003 544980 5379161 477 15,6 -
64 Eva Brumercikova et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 44 (2020) 61–68
4 Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

2004 512097 5380053 525 13,1 -

2005 499914 5384822 573 11,4 1,238
2006 451708 5389180 623 9,4 1,313
2007 431707 5393637 669 8 1,247
2008 414263 5400998 723 3,5 1,334
2009 369809 5412254 745 12,1 1,102
2010 359300 5424925 769 12,5 1,182
2011 347110 5392446 786 13,6 1,393
2012 333926 5404322 805 13,9 1,491
2013 316187 5410836 824 14,2 1,439
2014 311534 5415949 858 12,3 1,211
2015 312741 5421349 883 10,64 1,124
2016 328693 5426252 912 8,76 1,21
2017 321101 5435343 954 5,94 1,301
2018 - 5443120 1013 5,04 1,304

Individual regression models are presented in Figure 3 to Figure 7.

2.1. The Factor of the Number of Inhabitants of the Slovak Republic

Figure 3 contains an equation of a linear regression line of the form y = -4.4433x + 2 * 107. The coefficient of
determination R2 measures a degree of dependency with regard to a regression function. In that case the coefficient
of determination takes the value of 0.5086. The resulting value of the coefficient of determination may be
interpreted as follows: with the probability of 50.86 % the number of carried passengers depends on the number of
inhabitants. (Rybicka et al. 2018)

Linear Dependency of Carried Passengers on the Number of Inhabitants of the Slovak

Republic
The Number of Carried Passengers

700000
in Public Passenger Transport

600000

500000
y = -4,4433x + 2E+07
400000 R² = 0,5086

300000

200000

The Number of Inhabitants of the Slovak Republic

Fig. 3. Linear Dependency of Carried Passengers on the Number of Inhabitants of the Slovak Republic (Source:
the Author)

To establish a dependency or independency of two variables the dependency must be verified using a Fisher's
 Eva Brumercikova et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 44 (2020) 61–68 65
Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000 5

criterion. The comparison procedure is as follows (Nesterova et al. 2016):

a) the calculation of the Fisher's criterion from the formula:

⁄
(1)
⁄
[ ]

Where: R2 - the coefficient of determination; k - the number of parameters of a mode; n - the number of
measurements.

The value Fr of the dependency of carried passengers on the number of inhabitants of the Slovak Republic is given
with the equation (1) and takes the value 16.56.
b) the comparison of the calculated value Fr to the value coming from statistical tables F 0.95, ʋ1, ʋ2, where ʋ1 is
the number of parameters of a model, and ʋ2 = (n - (k + 1)). For the examined dependency F0.95, ʋ1, ʋ2 is equal to
4.494.
c) the comparison of the calculated value Fr to the table value F0.95, ʋ1, ʋ2. In case of a valid inequality F0.95, ʋ1, ʋ2
< Fr we may speak about demonstrating the dependency among examined phenomena. If F 0.95, ʋ1, ʋ2 > Fr, the
examined phenomena are not dependent. In case of the examined dependency, where Fr = 16.56 and F0.95, ʋ1, ʋ2 =
4.494, it may be stated that the number of carried passengers by means of public passenger transport is dependent on
the number of inhabitants of the Slovak Republic.

2.2. The Factor of the Average Monthly Wage in the Slovak Republic

Based on Figure 4, which presents the linear dependency of carried passengers on the average monthly wage in
the Slovak Republic we may state that the average wage has a big impact on transport of passengers. The graph
makes it clear that the higher the average wage is, the smaller the interest in public passenger transport exists.

Linear Dependency of Carried Passengers on the Average Monthly Wage in the Slovak
Republic

700000
The Number of Carried Passengers in

600000
Public Passenger Transport

y = -584,77x + 826936
R² = 0,9587
500000

400000

300000

200000
300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
The Average Monthly Wage in the Slovak Republic

Fig. 4 Linear Dependency of Carried Passengers on the Average Monthly Wage in the Slovak Republic (Source: the Author)

In order to complete the dependency on the average wage Figure 5 also presents the linear dependency of carried
passengers on the minimum wage in the Slovak Republic.
66 Eva Brumercikova et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 44 (2020) 61–68
6 Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

Linear Dependency of Carried Passengers on the Height of the Minimum Wage in the
Slovak Republic
700000
The Number of Carried Passengers in

y = -1227,9x + 772437
Public Passenger Transport

600000
R² = 0,8859
500000

400000

300000

200000
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Minimum Wage in the Slovak Republic

Fig. 5 Linear Dependency of Carried Passengers on the Minimum Wage in the Slovak Republic (Source: the
Author)

Based on Figure 5 we may state that the smaller the minimum wage is, the higher the number of carried
passengers by means of public passenger transport is. Thus the wage of passengers has a big impact on the decision
whether to use public or non-public transport, which is also confirmed with the starting prerequisite of the analysis.

2.3. The Factor of the Unemployment Rate in the Slovak Republic

Prior to the analysis it was assumed that the higher the unemployment rate was, the smaller the number of carried
passengers by means of public passenger transport would be. Based on Figure 6, however, we may state that this
assumption has not been confirmed. It implies that with the growth of the unemployment rate the number of carried
passengers by means of public passenger transport grows, too. This fact was also influenced with the wage of a
passenger.

Linear Dependency of Carried Passengers on the Unemployment Rate in the Slovak

Republic
700000
The Number of Carried Passengers
in Public Passenger Transport

600000

500000

400000 y = 14790x + 245374

R² = 0,3051
300000

200000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
The Unemployment Rate in the Slovak Republic in %

Fig. 6 Linear Dependency of Carried Passengers on the Unemployment Rate in the Slovak Republic (Source: the Author)
 Eva Brumercikova et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 44 (2020) 61–68 67
Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000 7

There in the anticipated dependency the coefficient of determination takes the value R2 = 0.3051. The Fisher's
criterion takes the value Fr = 7.025 and the table value of the Fisher's distribution takes the value F 0.95, ʋ1, ʋ2 = 4.494.
Thus the analysis has confirmed the dependency of carried passengers on the unemployment rate in the Slovak
Republic, where the higher the unemployment rate is, the bigger the number of carried passengers by means of
public passenger transport is.

2.4. The Factor of Price of Fuel

The last anticipated factor, which can have an impact on the number of carried passengers by means of public
passenger transport, was the average price of fuel. Based on Figure 7 we may state that this factor has no impact on
transport of passengers.

Linear Dependency of Carried Passengers on the Average Price of Fuel

600000
The Number of Carried Passengers in
Public Passenger Transport

500000

y = -31578x + 409357
400000 R² = 0,0037

300000

200000
1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600
The Average Price of Fuel

Fig. 7 Linear Dependency of Carried Passengers on the Average Price of Fuel (Source: the Author)

The coefficient of determination takes the value R2 = 0.0037. The Fisher's criterion takes the value Fr = 0.059 and
the table value of the Fisher's distribution takes the value F 0.95, ʋ1, ʋ2 = 4.494. Since F0.95, ʋ1, ʋ2 > Fr, the assumption
regarding the dependency has not been confirmed.

3. Conclusion

The article presents results of the analysis of transport performances in public passenger transport in the Slovak
Republic. It may be stated that as long as the ratio of public and non-public transport was almost the same in 1995,
this share started to decrease in the following years. The share of public passenger transport manifested this
decreasing trend until 2014, when the share of public passenger transport achieved the level of 24.95 %. After the
introduction of free transport in rail passenger transport in November 2014 the share of public passenger transport
started to increase up to the level of 28.01 % in 2017. In the subsequent part of the article the regression and
correlation analyses were realised. Based on the analysis of the impact of selected factors on the transport of
passengers in public passenger transport it may be stated that the number of inhabitants, the average monthly wage
and the minimum wage, as well as the unemployment rate do have some impacts on the number of passengers. In
case of the number of inhabitants, the average wage and the minimum wage it is true that with increasing values of
variables the number of carried persons decreases. In case of the unemployment rate the following dependency was
confirmed: the higher the unemployment rate is, the higher the number of carried persons is. However, currently the
number of the unemployed in the Slovak Republic decreases down to its minimum. The average price of fuel does
not impact the number of carried persons in public passenger transport
68 Eva Brumercikova et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 44 (2020) 61–68
8 Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

Acknowledgements

The paper is supported by the VEGA Agency by the Project 1/0791/18"The Assessment of Economic and
Technological Aspects in the Provision of Competitive Public Transport Services in Integrated Transport Systems"
that is solved at Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, University of Žilina. An
example appendix

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