DAILY PETROSPECTIVE January 12th, 2011

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Energy Prices Settlements

Heating Oil Crude Oil

Month High Low Settle Change Volume Month High Low Settle Change Volume
FEB 267.59 264.00 265.62 1.03 22212 FEB 92.10 90.47 90.86 -0.52 68837
MAR 267.74 264.20 265.90 1.01 35034 MAR 93.02 91.46 91.81 -0.50 299574
APR 266.60 263.70 264.69 0.78 13536 APR 94.02 92.58 92.98 -0.35 81867
MAY 265.39 262.76 263.71 0.65 5992 MAY 94.92 93.53 93.99 -0.25 39094
JUN 265.33 262.57 263.49 0.53 7979 JUN 95.56 94.25 94.70 -0.22 37187
JUL 266.13 263.34 264.34 0.39 2263 JUL 96.04 94.76 95.23 -0.20 10580
AUG 266.25 264.40 265.38 0.30 1573 AUG 96.22 95.18 95.57 -0.19 5856
SEP 268.46 265.85 266.79 0.28 1435 SEP 96.49 95.42 95.82 -0.18 3481
OCT 270.10 267.78 268.25 0.27 802 OCT 96.69 95.76 96.03 -0.17 3006
NOV 270.46 269.38 269.67 0.23 592 NOV 96.77 95.91 96.19 -0.17 1080
DEC 272.25 269.93 270.87 0.20 1340 DEC 97.02 95.81 96.33 -0.17 20940
JAN 271.88 271.88 272.08 0.20 28 JAN --- --- 96.33 -0.18 1317

Unleaded Gasoline Natural Gas

Month High Low Settle Change Volume Month High Low Settle Change Volume
FEB 250.11 247.25 248.16 0.24 23555 FEB 4.524 4.406 4.561 0.136 111527
MAR 251.50 248.62 249.63 0.24 30983 MAR 4.570 4.432 4.576 0.130 78517
APR 261.79 259.10 260.14 0.29 15673 APR 4.534 4.437 4.570 0.120 28118
MAY 262.23 259.91 260.73 0.37 7651 MAY 4.570 4.507 4.604 0.112 14746
JUN 262.17 259.69 260.65 0.44 6609 JUN 4.617 4.528 4.643 0.102 7070
JUL 260.72 259.05 259.93 0.49 2008 JUL 4.678 4.629 4.702 0.094 6674
AUG 259.35 258.00 258.50 0.54 1046 AUG 4.703 4.662 4.730 0.092 4236
SEP 257.39 255.90 256.55 0.52 743 SEP 4.709 4.670 4.738 0.091 2785
OCT --- --- 245.64 0.54 691 OCT 4.765 4.721 4.794 0.090 12868
NOV --- --- 243.51 0.46 365 NOV 4.921 4.885 4.947 0.080 3167
DEC 243.20 241.85 242.62 0.49 1481 DEC 5.138 5.092 5.163 0.071 4439
JAN --- --- 243.57 0.49 0 JAN 5.270 5.235 5.294 0.065 7190

Daily Energy Evening Review for Wednesday

Refined products were higher and crude oil prices were slightly
lower on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to this week’s DOE
report and the very probable start of maintenance turnarounds.
Since these will reduce the demand for crude oil at the same time
that they will cut the supplies of refined products, the coming
report, and the probable start of turnarounds it will usher in, has to
be seen as bullish for refined products at the same time that it will
be bearish, at least to some extent, for crude oil. Traders seem to
have been looking ahead to this week’s report all week long.
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 DAILY PETROSPECTIVE January 12th, 2011
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The US dollar was mostly sideways on Wednesday, on a net basis. It dropped against the euro in
trading Tuesday night and then reached a low point early on Wednesday morning, around 8:30 AM,
from which it rallied into the afternoon.
The size of the moves was relatively small,
though. Investors did not seem to be
basing a great deal of Wednesday trading
activity on what was seen in the US dollar-
euro relationship.
The stock market did not offer all that
much direction, either. It had been making
new highs steadily this week, but it lost
12.64 to finish at 11,825.29 on Wednesday.
That is hardly a major decline, but it was
the first day to finish below the previous
day in a few days. There is no reason to
believe that stocks are getting ready for a
major correction here, and we would continue to expect to see new highs in that market.
Yesterday was a slow day, and the fact that CNBC devoted huge tracts of time to the running
interpretation of questions being asked in Chinese (which almost defines television certain to lose
viewers) underlined the lack of anything interesting in the economic world. The running picture of Hu
Jintao perched like a stone
gremlin behind a podium,
DOE Expectations
with questions being asked Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters
and answered in Chinese, was Crude Oil dn 0.900 dn 1.000 dn 0.300 mln bbls
enough to make one turn Distillate up 0.500 up 1.000 up 1.000
cross-eyed, but it may have Gasoline up 2.300 up 2.300 up 2.500
highlighted a subtle truth Utilization dn 0.8% dn 0.5% up 0.1%
about Wednesday’s session.
Many traders and investors were waiting for the latest figures on Chinese inflation, which are expected
to tell us today how aggressively China’s central bank will try to wring growth from an overheating
economy. That is definitely a critical factor moving forward, from a central player in the world’s
economic growth, and those factors go a long
API Report way towards excusing the business channel’s
Crude Stocks up 3.533 mln bbls producers from embracing pictures and sounds
Distillate up 0.940 straight from the “What not to do” list of
Gasoline up 1.869
Utilization dn 1.4% to 82.9%
Television Journalism 101.
Crude Imports dn 1.424 mln to 8.809 mln bpd This week’s API report showed a crude oil
stock build of 3.533 million barrels. Gasoline
stocks were up 1.869 million barrels, and distillate
stocks were up 0.940 million barrels. Refinery utilization was down 1.4% to 82.9%. Implied demand was
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 DAILY PETROSPECTIVE January 12th, 2011
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strong for distillate, at 4.673 million bpd, but it was weak for gasoline at 8.788 million bpd. Crude oil
imports dropped 1.424 million bpd to 8.809 million bpd, which suggests lower utilization to follow,
which is what is expected.

Energy Charts

There is very strong resistance in crude oil futures, overhead, at $92.40-$92.60/bbl.

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