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Historical Projected
January 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cash Flow from Operations: 23,643 24,255 27,687 29,119 30,368 31,304 32,171
Cash Flow from Investing: (12,193) (16,609) (14,139) (14,814) (15,477) (16,053) (16,555)
Cash Flow from Financing: (12,028) (8,458) (9,908) (13,623) (12,948) (14,383) (11,423)
Historical Projected
January 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Wal-Mart: Revenue vs. Gross Margins Wal-Mart: Revenue, EBITDA, and Margins
$600 B 25.4 % $600 B $551 B 7.9 %
$535 B $551 B $535 B
$516 B $516 B 7.9 %
$494 B $494 B
$500 B $471 B 25.3 % $500 B $471 B
$447 B $447 B 7.8 %
$422 B $422 B
EBITDA Margins
$400 B 25.2 % $400 B 7.8 %
Gross Margins
Revenue
7.8 %
$300 B 25.1 % $300 B
7.8 %
$200 B 25.0 % $200 B 7.8 %
7.7 %
$100 B 24.9 % $100 B
$33 B $35 B $37 B $39 B $40 B $42 B $43 B 7.7 %
$0 B 24.8 % $0 B 7.7 %
1/1/2011 1/1/2013 1/1/2015 1/1/2017 1/1/2011 1/1/2013 1/1/2015 1/1/2017
646 K
640 K 637 K $424
627 K
620 K 617 K $422
606 K
600 K $420
580 K $418
560 K $416
1/1/2010 1/1/2012 1/1/2014 1/1/2016
Projected Revenue Growth, FY 2013 - 2014 Projected EBITDA Growth, FY 2013 - 2014
12% 12%
6% 6%
5% 5%
4% 4% 4% 4%
2% 1% 2% 1%
0% 0%
KSS TGT WMT COST DG KSS TGT WMT COST DG
0.2 x 2.0 x
0.0 x 0.0 x
KSS TGT WMT COST DG KSS TGT WMT COST DG
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - Operating Model and Valuation
Total Revenue, Selected Case: $ 408,085 $ 421,849 $ 446,950 $ 471,317 $ 493,709 $ 515,675 $ 534,773 $ 551,404
US Stores - Sales ($MM): $ 259,919 $ 260,261 $ 264,186 $ 268,413 $ 272,439 $ 276,526 $ 280,397 $ 284,323
US Stores Sales Growth %: 0.1 % 1.5 % 1.6 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.4 % 1.4 %
US Stores - Square Feet: 592,256 605,852 617,067 626,686 636,713 646,264 655,958 665,141 674,453
US Stores - $ per Sq. Ft.: $ 429.01 $ 421.77 $ 421.56 $ 421.56 $ 421.56 $ 421.56 $ 421.56 $ 421.56
Int'l Stores - Sales ($MM): $ 97,407 $ 109,232 $ 125,873 $ 142,614 $ 157,874 $ 173,148 $ 186,290 $ 197,561
Int'l Stores Sales Growth %: 12.1 % 15.2 % 13.3 % 10.7 % 9.7 % 7.6 % 6.1 %
Int'l Stores - Square Feet: 244,802 265,846 286,680 328,887 361,776 390,718 418,068 443,152 465,310
Int'l Stores - $ per Sq. Ft.: $ 366.40 $ 381.02 $ 382.72 $ 394.21 $ 404.06 $ 414.16 $ 420.37 $ 424.58
Other - Sales ($MM): $ 47,806 $ 49,459 $ 53,795 $ 57,308 $ 60,414 $ 63,019 $ 65,104 $ 66,539
Other Sales Growth %: 3.5 % 8.8 % 6.5 % 5.4 % 4.3 % 3.3 % 2.2 %
Other - Square Feet: 80,986 80,539 81,202 81,586 81,994 82,322 82,569 82,817 82,982
Other - $ per Sq. Ft.: $ 593.58 $ 609.09 $ 659.37 $ 698.93 $ 733.87 $ 763.23 $ 786.13 $ 801.85
Membership Fees ($MM): $ 2,953 $ 2,897 $ 3,096 $ 2,982 $ 2,982 $ 2,982 $ 2,982 $ 2,982
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - Operating Model and Valuation
Sales, General & Administrative Expenses: 81,361 85,265 90,408 94,703 98,916 102,580 105,770
% Revenue: 19.3 % 19.1 % 19.2 % 19.2 % 19.2 % 19.2 % 19.2 %
Consolidated Net Income: $ 15,959 $ 16,454 $ 17,861 $ 18,730 $ 19,629 $ 20,238 $ 20,911
Less: Noncontrolling Interest Earnings: (604) (688) (646) (646) (646) (646) (646)
Net Income Attributable to Parent: $ 15,355 $ 15,766 $ 17,215 $ 18,084 $ 18,983 $ 19,592 $ 20,265
Long-Term Assets:
Net PP&E: 105,098 109,603 114,731 120,127 125,788 131,678 137,768
Goodwill: 16,763 20,651 20,651 20,651 20,651 20,651 20,651
Capital Lease Assets: 2,780 2,721 2,721 2,721 2,721 2,721 2,721
Other Long-Term Assets: 4,129 5,456 5,912 6,368 6,824 7,280 7,736
Total Long-Term Assets: 128,770 138,431 144,015 149,867 155,984 162,330 168,876
Long-Term Liabilities:
Total Long-Term Debt (All Portions): 45,347 46,045 49,070 48,902 49,975 50,225 54,095
Total Capital Leases (All Portions): 3,486 3,335 2,980 2,625 2,270 1,915 1,560
Deferred Income Taxes: 6,682 7,862 8,778 9,739 10,747 11,785 12,858
Redeemable Noncontrolling Interests: 408 404 404 404 404 404 404
Total Long-Term Liabilities: 55,923 57,646 61,232 61,670 63,396 64,329 68,917
Equity:
Common Stock & APIC: 3,929 4,034 4,034 4,034 4,034 4,034 4,034
Treasury Stock: - - (8,000) (16,000) (24,000) (32,000) (40,000)
Retained Earnings: 63,967 68,691 80,578 92,812 105,379 117,942 130,519
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income: 646 (1,410) (1,443) (1,476) (1,509) (1,542) (1,575)
Total Shareholders' Equity: 68,542 71,315 75,169 79,370 83,904 88,434 92,978
Noncontrolling Interests: 2,705 4,446 5,092 5,738 6,384 7,030 7,676
Total Equity: $ 71,247 $ 75,761 $ 80,261 $ 85,108 $ 90,288 $ 95,464 $ 100,654
Total Liabilities & Equity: $ 180,782 $ 193,406 $ 204,606 $ 213,521 $ 223,900 $ 233,126 $ 245,593
Effective Cash Interest Rate: 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Effective Debt Interest Rate: 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5%
Accounts Receivable % Sales: 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Accounts Receivable Days: 4.4 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
Inventory % COGS: 11.6% 12.1% 11.9% 11.9% 11.9% 11.9% 11.9%
Prepaid Expenses % OpEx: 3.8% 2.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Accounts Payable % COGS: 10.7% 10.9% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8%
Accounts Payable Days: 39.0 39.9 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4
Accrued Liabilities % OpEx: 23.0% 21.3% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2%
Accrued Income Taxes % Total Taxes: 2.1% 14.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Depreciation & Amortization % Revenue: 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Deferred Income Taxes % Total Taxes: 8.6% 13.2% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%
Capital Expenditures % Revenue: 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Dividends Per Common Share: $ 1.09 $ 1.21 $ 1.46 $ 1.59 $ 1.80 $ 2.05 $ 2.32 $ 2.64
Growth in Dividends Per Share: 10.9% 20.7% 8.9% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Basic Shares Outstanding: 3,656.0 3,460.0 3,350.8 3,241.6 3,132.4 3,023.2 2,914.0
Diluted Shares Outstanding: 3,670.0 3,474.0 3,364.8 3,255.6 3,146.4 3,037.2 2,928.0
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - Operating Model and Valuation
Valuation Statistics - Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - Range of Valuation Multiples Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - Implied Per Share Value Range
5.0% - 7.0% Discount Rate and 0.8% - 2.8% Terminal FCF Growth Rate:
$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 $160.00 $180.00 $200.00
Min 25th Median 75th Max Min Point 25th Point Median Poi75th Point Max Max
5.0% - 7.0% Discount Rate and 0.8% - 2.8% Terminal FCF Growth Rate: $ 63.27 $ 76.49 $ 95.90 $ 127.21 $ 186.29 $ 63.27 $ 13.22 $ 19.41 $ 31.31 $ 59.07
01/31/2014 Pro-Forma P/E: 56.16 68.94 75.84 86.72 111.46 56.16 12.78 6.90 10.89 24.74
01/31/2013 Pro-Forma P/E: 56.97 67.82 77.31 90.96 114.27 56.97 10.86 9.49 13.64 23.31
TTM Pro-Forma P/E: 44.11 60.98 80.54 99.55 114.75 44.11 16.87 19.56 19.01 15.21
01/31/2014 TEV / EBITDA: 37.00 59.34 74.62 84.90 92.26 37.00 22.34 15.27 10.28 7.37
01/31/2013 TEV / EBITDA: 35.37 58.35 76.55 89.41 96.36 35.37 22.98 18.20 12.86 6.95
TTM TEV / EBITDA: 33.50 57.17 77.25 91.51 97.74 33.50 23.67 20.08 14.26 6.23
01/31/2014 TEV / Revenue: 35.84 75.56 92.71 105.89 133.69 35.84 39.72 17.15 13.18 27.80
01/31/2013 TEV / Revenue: 37.78 73.60 90.55 106.87 140.80 37.78 35.82 16.95 16.32 33.93
TTM TEV / Revenue: 38.79 71.54 88.73 107.61 145.44 38.79 32.75 17.19 18.88 37.83
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - Operating Model and Valuation
Comparable Public Companies - Diversified US-Based Retailers with Greater Than $10 Billion in TTM Revenue
($ in Millions, Except per Share Figures)
Maximum: $ 100.73 $ 44,680 $ 59,676 $ 99,137 $ 106,560 $ 115,890 $ 7,453 $ 7,820 $ 8,113 $ 4.74 $ 4.52 $ 5.02
75th Percentile: 72.52 43,410 45,943 77,183 81,616 86,010 4,614 4,911 5,243 4.41 4.51 4.85
Median: $ 54.73 29,474 29,909 44,335 46,261 47,775 3,302 3,471 3,666 $ 4.14 $ 4.33 $ 4.68
25th Percentile: 46.28 14,806 17,397 17,805 18,435 19,038 2,644 2,730 2,810 3.54 3.82 4.24
Minimum: 46.10 11,342 14,228 14,807 16,080 17,650 1,766 1,918 2,105 2.23 2.85 3.28
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. $ 73.26 $ 252,188 $ 303,915 $ 446,950 $ 471,317 $ 493,709 $ 34,688 $ 36,827 $ 38,576 $ 4.78 $ 5.12 $ 5.55
Maximum: $ 100.73 $ 44,680 $ 59,676 1.2 x 1.1 x 1.0 x 11.3 x 10.5 x 9.6 x 25.3 x 22.3 x 20.1 x
75th Percentile: 72.52 43,410 45,943 1.0 x 0.9 x 0.8 x 10.7 x 9.8 x 9.0 x 21.9 x 17.8 x 15.6 x
Median: $ 54.73 29,474 29,909 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 9.2 x 8.6 x 8.1 x 17.7 x 15.1 x 13.7 x
25th Percentile: 46.28 14,806 17,397 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 7.2 x 6.9 x 6.7 x 13.4 x 13.3 x 12.4 x
Minimum: 46.10 11,342 14,228 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 4.8 x 4.7 x 4.7 x 9.7 x 11.1 x 10.1 x
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. $ 73.26 $ 252,188 $ 303,915 0.7 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 8.8 x 8.3 x 7.9 x 15.3 x 14.3 x 13.2 x
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - Operating Model and Valuation
COST TGT
Costco Wholesale Corporation Target Corporation
Calendarization Calendarization
Old Partial New Partial FY TTM Old Partial New Partial FY TTM
Revenue: $99,137 $99,137 $69,865 $69,865
COGS: $86,823 $86,823 $47,860 $47,860
Gross Profit: $0 $0 $12,314 $12,314 $0 $0 $22,005 $22,005
Operating Expenses: $9,555 $9,555 $16,683 $16,683
Other Income / (Expense): $8 $8 ($866) ($866)
Pre-Tax Income: $0 $0 $2,767 $2,767 $0 $0 $4,456 $4,456
Taxes: $1,000 $1,000 $1,527 $1,527
Net Income: $0 $0 $1,767 $1,767 $0 $0 $2,929 $2,929
Amortization: $259 $259 $24 $24
Depreciation: $649 $649 $2,107 $2,107
Non-Recurring Charges: $0 $0 $0 $0
Tax Rate: 35% 35%
COST TGT
Costco Wholesale Corporation Target Corporation
Diluted Shares Calculation Diluted Shares Calculation
Current Share Price: $100.73 $63.12
Common Shares: 432.42 668.49
Options:
Total Strike Dilution Total Strike Dilution
1.23 35.95 0.79 38.15 $47.59 9.39
1.70 43.77 0.96 1.55 1.55
0.23 46.19 0.12 1.61 1.61
9.26 9.26 0.00 $0.00 0.00
0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
Total Diluted Shares: 443.56 681.04
KSS DG WMT
Kohl's Corporation Dollar General Corp. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
Calendarization Calendarization Calendarization
Old Partial New Partial FY TTM Old Partial New Partial FY TTM Old Partial New Partial FY TTM
Revenue: $18,804 $18,804 $14,807 $14,807 $ 446,950 $446,950
COGS: $11,625 $11,625 $10,109 $10,109 335,127 $335,127
Gross Profit: $0 $0 $7,179 $7,179 $0 $0 $4,698 $4,698 $0 $0 $111,823 $111,823
Operating Expenses: $5,021 $5,021 $3,207 $3,207 85,265 $85,265
Other Income / (Expense): ($299) ($299) ($266) ($266) (2,160) ($2,160)
Pre-Tax Income: $0 $0 $1,859 $1,859 $0 $0 $1,225 $1,225 $0 $0 $24,398 $24,398
Taxes: $692 $692 $459 $459 7,944 $7,944
Net Income: $0 $0 $1,167 $1,167 $0 $0 $767 $767 $0 $0 $16,454 $16,454
Amortization: $424 $424 $32 $32 $0 $0
Depreciation: $354 $354 $244 $244 8,130 $8,130
Non-Recurring Charges: $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Tax Rate: 35% 35% 35%
KSS DG WMT
Kohl's Corporation Dollar General Corp. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
Diluted Shares Calculation Diluted Shares Calculation Diluted Shares Calculation
Current Share Price: $46.10 $46.34 $73.26
Common Shares: 243.25 338.09 3,404.54
Options:
Total Strike Dilution Total Strike Dilution Total Strike Dilution
1.45 $29.54 0.52 4.26 $10.55 3.29 20.15 $48.21 6.89
0.12 $37.35 0.02 3.97 $10.75 3.05 30.94 $0.00 30.94
1.85 $41.58 0.18 0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
1.48 $43.06 0.10 0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
2.18 $48.25 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
2.15 $51.35 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
3.65 $57.65 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
1.24 $68.70 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
1.95 1.95 0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.00
Total Diluted Shares: 246.02 344.43 3,442.37
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - DCF Cash Flow Projections Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - Assumptions & Output
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - Net Present Value Sensitivity - Terminal EBITDA Multiples
Discount Rate
$103.34 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0%
11.0 x $ 170.78 $ 140.13 $ 118.24 $ 101.81 $ 89.04 $ 78.82 $ 70.47 $ 63.50
Terminal EBITDA
Median 0.68
WACC = Cost of Equity * % Equity + Cost of Debt * % Debt * (1 - Tax Rate) + Cost of Preferred Stock * % Preferred Stock
WACC 5.95%