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In economics, the theory of demand starts with the examination of the behavior
of the consumer. A demand function is an abstraction or a model of the behavior
of a consumer. Once the demand of a consumer is determined, we can also
determine the market demand, since the latter is just a summation of individual
demand.
There are two basic approaches on how to compare utilities of goods or basket
of goods, namely: the cardinalist approach, and the ordinalist approach. We will
not go into the details of these approaches. The position of cardinalist approach
however is that utility or satisfaction can be measured, while the position of the
ordinalist approach is that utility or satisfaction is not measurable, but the
consumer could rank the utility or satisfaction he/she gets from goods or basket
of goods. In other words, a consumer could rank or determine his/her order of
preference among different bundles of goods. We will use later one of the
approaches under the ordinalist approach to derive the demand function.
Inclusion of time in the demand function makes the demand function dynamic
and it is this formulation that makes it relevant to forecasting or projection of
demand. Note that we usually make distinction between a forecast and a
projection. A forecast is the prediction of future values of a variable with an
accompanying distribution function. For example, when the weather man says
that there is a 25% probability that it will rain tomorrow that is a forecast. Note
that the distinguishing term there is the probability that an even will occur.
On the other hand, prediction is associated with the prediction of future values of
a variable under certain set of assumptions. For example, when a government
planner says that the gross domestic product of the Philippines will 6.5% for the
next three years if the economic fundamentals of the country will remain strong,
the peso – dollar exchange rate will be stable, the flow of investments will remain
constant, etc., the pronounced GDP growth rate in this case is a projection.
Note that it is easier to project than to forecast, also you can easily get away with
the projection than with a forecast. This is because if what you project did not
happened, you can always say that the assumptions were not realized. However,
if you made a mistake with your forecast, you really made a mistake. In other
words the model that you used was not good enough.
This is the form of the demand function that we will be devoting a major portion of
our time in this short course in modeling and forecasting. Notice that it is also the
most difficult form of the demand function. This is because as you can probably
see in Equation 2, it is usually necessary to forecast also the values of P o,t,;
Pno,t,; Mt, ; Tt, ; Nt,; W t,; Dt,, and Xi,t to enable us to forecast Qd,t.
(a) Rationality. The consumer aims at the maximization of his utility given his
income and market prices. It is assumed that he has full knowledge of all
relevant information.
(b) Utility is ordinal. It is taken as axiomatically true that the consumer can
rank his preferences according to the satisfaction of each basket. He need
not know precisely the amount of satisfaction. Only his expressed
preference is necessary.
(c) Diminishing marginal rate of substitution. Preference are ranked in terms
of indifference curves, which are assumed to be convex to the origin. The
slope of the indifference curves is called the marginal rate of substitution
of the commodities.
(d) The total utility of the consumer depends on the quantities of commodities
consumed, thus:
(4) U = f( x 1 , x 2 , …, x n ) = K = constant
I2
I 1 Indifference curve
x
Indifference map shows all the indifference curves which rank the preferences of
the consumer. Higher indifference curve from the origin has higher level of
satisfaction.
x
Indifference curve of perfect substitute
Perfect substitutes give a corner solution, i.e. the consumer spends all his
income in one commodity.
On the other hand, if the commodities are complements, the indifference curve
takes the shape of a right angle, as shown below.
Note that in the case of complementary goods, the indifference curve breaks
down because there is no possibility of substitution between commodities.
(5) U = f(x, y)
(6) U = f(x, y ) = K
where K is a constant.
The total differential of the utility function is
U U
(7) dU = dy + dx
y x
= MUy dy + MUx dx
U U
Where: MUy = and MUx =
y x
The total differential of the utility function shows the total change in utility as the
quantities of both commodities change. In this case, the total change in U caused
by changes in y and x is equal to the change in y multiplied by its marginal utility,
plus the change in x multiplied by its marginal utility.
By definition, however, along any indifference curve, the total differential is equal
to zero, thus
therefore
Or
MUy dx
=- = MRSy,x
MUx dy
(1) It has a negative slope which means that if the quantity of one commodity
(y) decreases, the quantity of the other commodity (x) must increase, if the
consumer is to stay on the same level of satisfaction.
(2) The further away from the origin an indifference curve lies, the higher level
of utility it denotes.
(3) Indifference curves do not intersect.
(4) Indifference curves are convex to the origin. This implies that the slope of
an indifference curve decreases (in absolute terms) as we move along the
curve from the left downwards to the right, i.e. the MRS of the
commodities is diminishing. The Axiom of Decreasing MRS expresses the
observed behavioral rule that the number of units of x the consumer is
willing to sacrifice in order to obtain an additional unit of y increases as the
quantity of y decreases. Note that it becomes increasingly difficult to
substitute x for y as we move along the indifference curve.
y
y4
y3
y2
y1
x
x1 x2 x3 x4
The income of the consumer sets the limits to his maximizing behavior. The
income constraint for two commodities is:
(12) Y = Px qx + Py qy
Where: Y = income
Px = price of x
Py = price of y
qx = quantity of x
qy = quantity of y
The budget constraint may be presented by the budget line define as follows:
1 P
(13) qy = Y - x qx
Py Py
q y Px
(14) =
q x Py
The consumer is in equilibrium when he maximizes his utility, given his income
and market prices. There are two conditions that must be fulfilled for the
consumer to be in equilibrium, namely:
(a) The marginal rate of substitution should be equal to the ratio of commodity
prices, i.e.
MU x P
MRSx,y = = x
MU y Py
Note that this is necessary, but not a sufficient condition for equilibrium.
(b) The second condition is that the indifference curves be convex to the
origin. This condition is fulfilled by the Axiom of Diminishing MRS.
Let us assume that there are n commodities available to the consumer with given
market prices, Pi, where i = 1, to n. The consumer has money income Y which
he spends on available commodities. We can then state formally the
maximization problem as:
Maximize: U = f( q i )
n
Subject to: qipi = Y
i 1
Where: i = 1, 2, …, n
qipi - Y = 0
i 1
or
q1 p1 + q 2 p 2 + … + q n p n - Y = 0
Step 3: Subtract the constraint from the utility function (objective function)
to
obtain the composite function:
= U - ( q1 p1 + q 2 p 2 + . . . + q n p n - Y )
Step 4: Differentiate with respect to q i and and equate the partial
Derivatives to zero, thus
U
= - (p 1 ) = 0
q1 q1
.
.
U
= - (p n ) = 0
q n q n
= - ( qi pi - Y ) = 0
U
= pi
qi
but
U
= MU i
qi
Therefore:
MU i
=
pi
MU X px
= = MRS x, y
MU y py
Note that the equilibrium conditions are identical with the cardinalist approach
and the indifference curve approach. Note also that although in the indifference
curve approach cardinality of utility is not required, the MRS requires knowledge
of the ratio of marginal utilities. Given that the first order condition for any two
commodities may be written as:
Thus, the concept of marginal utility is implicit in the definition of the slope of the
indifference curves, although its measurement is not required by this approach.
What is needed is a marginal rate of substitution which of course does not
require (the assumption) diminishing utilities of the commodities involved in the
utility function. What was done by the Indifference –Curves theorists is to
substitute the assumption of diminishing marginal utility with the assumption that
the indifference curves are convex to the origin, which implies diminishing MRS
of the commodities.
1. Graphical approach
B B’ B’’’ X
Given an income I and the prices Px and Py of goods X and Y, the budget line of
a consumer is defined by line AB. As the price of x falls, however, the budget line
shifts to the right, to a new position AB’, due to the higher purchasing power of
the consumer from a given money income, the consumer can now buy more X
than before. The consumer also shifts to a higher indifference curve than before,
i.e. from I to II, indicating a higher satisfaction or utility. The point where the
budget line is tangent to indifference curve II is the new equilibrium. If the price of
X falls further, the same process is repeated, the budget line shifts further to the
right, i.e. to AB’’, and the consumer attains an equilibrium at the tangent of the
budget line AB’’ to the indifference curve III.
p1
p2
p3
x1 x2 x3 qx
The demand for normal goods will always have a negative slope, denoting the
Law of Demand, i.e. the quantity purchase increases as the price falls.
(2) Y= Piqi
Suppose we have the following two-commodity system with total utility defined as
(1) U = ¼ qxqy
Then
(2) MUx = 1/4qy
And
(3) MUy = ¼ qx
or
(5) ¼ qyPy = ¼ qxPx
From (2), the budget constraint for the two-commodity system is:
or
qx = (1/2Px) Y
which the demand function for commodity X. Likewise, the demand for
commodity y is
(10) qy = (1/2Py) Y
Advantages:
Shortcomings:
The weakness of the theory is its axiomatic assumption of the existence and
the convexity of the indifference curves. The theory does not establish either
the existence or the shape of the indifference curves. It just assumes that
they exist and have the required shape of convexity.
It is also questionable whether the consumer is able to order his preferences
as precisely and rationally as the theory implies. Also, the preferences of the
consumers change continuously under the influence of various factors, hence
any ordering of these preferences even if possible should be considered as
valid for the very short run.
Rules out the influence of advertisement, habit persistence and
interdependence of preferences of consumers which could lead to irrational
behavior.
Speculative demand and random behavior are ruled out, but these are
considered important in pricing and output decision of the firm.
3. Functional Forms
This is probably the most common type of demand function that we see in
economics text books. Its simplest form is:
Qd = a – bP
The multiple explanatory variable version of this model is done simply by adding
the other explanatory variables. The signs of the regression coefficients of some
of these variables may be predetermined according to the theory. For example,
for a normal good, the sign of the coefficient of own price should be negative.
Why? What is its implication if the coefficient of own price is positive? Also, for a
normal good the sign of the coefficient of income should be positive. Why? What
does it mean if the coefficient of income is negative?
This is the most commonly used form of demand function in applied research.
The specific form of this function is:
Q x = b 0 P bx1 P bo 2 Y b 3 e b 4 t
log Qx
= b1
log Px
But
Qx
log Qx =
Qx
and
Px
log Px =
Px
Therefore
Homogeneous function of degree zero means that if prices and income change
by the same proportion say k percent, the quantity demanded of X will not
change because k will appear in both the numerator and denominator of relative
prices and real income, and hence its effect will cancel out.
Dynamic demand functions include lagged values of the quantity demanded and
of income as separate variables influencing demand in any particular period. The
dynamic function expresses the idea that current purchasing decisions are
influenced by past behavior.
Models, including lagged values of demand, of income or of other variables are
called distributed-lag models. Their general form may be expressed as:
Where the number of lags depend on the particular relationship being studied.
Q*t = bYt
The consumer, however, cannot immediately acquire the desired level of durable
due to limited income, credit limitations, etc. Thus, in each period, the consumer
acquires only a portion of desired level.
Since the consumer buys a certain quantity Qt at current period, the actual
change from the quantity bought in the previous period is denoted by
Qt – Qt-1
Q*t – Qt-1
Accordingly:
therefore
Or
Qt = kbYt – kQt-1 + Qt-1
Which simplifies to
Qt = kbYt + ( 1 – k )Qt-1
Now let: kb = a1
( 1 – k ) = a2
then
Qt = a1Yt + a2Qt-1
This model is based on Nerlove’s model. What HT did is extend the idea of stock
adjustment to include non-durables. The model assumes the following:
Current demand for durables depends on, among others, the stock of
such commodities (stock adjustment process)
Current demand for non-durables depends on, among others, the
purchases of commodities in the past, because by consuming a certain
commodity we get accustomed to it.
The demand function is derived as follows, let the demand in any particular
period depends on price, stocks of commodity and on current level of income,
then we have:
The sign of the coefficient of S will be negative for durables, i.e. the more we
have furniture, electrical appliances, etc. the less our demand for such
commodities.
The sign of the coefficient of S will be positive for non-durables, i.e. the higher
our purchases of non-durables the stronger our habit becomes.
Stocks St however cannot be measured because:
We can however eliminate algebraically stocks St from the demand function and
replace it with other measurable variables by making reasonable assumptions.
(a) The net change in stocks realized in any period t is equal to our purchases
in that period minus the depreciation of our old possessions:
(b) Let depreciation be equal in the periods of life of the durables, i.e.
Depreciation = St
Hence:
(d) Since the relation Qt = bo + b1Pt + b2St + b3Yt holds for period t, it should
also hold for period t-1,
Let ao, a1, a2, a3, a4, and a5 be equal to the corresponding coefficient of the
term in the equation, then we have:
Which is the final form of the HT dynamic model formulation of the demand
function.
4. Market Demand
2 40 4 45 18 107
4 30 2 35 16 83
6 24 5 30 13 72
8 18 7 20 12 57
10 14 10 15 11 50
12 10 7 13 8 38
14 8 5 10 6 29
16 6 3 8 4 21
18 4 2 0 0 6
20 3 0 0 0 3
The form of market demand is not defined by economic theory. Thus, the
demand of the demand curve is generally dictated by the response of the
quantity demanded to the change in price and of the type of good. One thing we
say, however, is that the quantity demanded is inversely related to price in
normal goods, i.e. the quantity demanded decreases as the price increases.
Nevertheless, two general form of demand curves may by advanced, namely:
(a) linear demand curve, and (b) curvilinear demand curve.
Q = a – bP
This linear demand curve exhibits constant slope but changing elasticity at
various prices.
This is a common non-linear form of demand curve, also known as the constant-
elasticity-demand curve. Note that b is the constant elasticity of demand.
Determinants of demand
The most common and important determinants of the market demand are: the
price of the commodity in question; prices of other commodities; consumers’
income, and taste.
The changes in price results in the movement along the same demand curve,
while changes in other determinants of demand results to a shift of the demand
curve. Accordingly, they are considered the shift factors (prices of other
commodities; income and taste). It should be noted that the demand curve is
drawn under the assumption of constant shift factors.
Elasticity of Demand
Price elasticity of demand ranges from 0 to infinity. The following are the
classification of values of price elasticity of demand.
(a) The demand for a commodity is more elastic if there are close substitutes for
it.
(b) In general luxury goods are price elastic while necessities are price inelastic.
(c) Demand is more elastic in the long run
(d) The more possible uses of the commodity the greater is its price elasticity.
(e) The proportion of income spent on the commodity.
Income elasticity is positive for normal goods. Some classify goods according to
their income elasticity. Thus, a commodity is considered to be a luxury if its
income elasticity is greater than one. On the other hand, a good is a necessity if
its income elasticity is less than one.
The main determinant of cross – elasticity is the nature of the commodity and
their uses. If two commodities can satisfy equally well the same need, the cross –
elasticity is high and vice versa.
Market Demand, Total Revenue and Marginal Revenue.
The market demand curve can be used to derived the total expenditure of the
consumers which forms the total revenue of the firms selling that particular
commodity.
Total revenue (TR) is found by multiplying the quantity (Q) sold or demand by its
price (P). Thus,
TR = P*Q
Note that if the demand curve is linear, then TR is a curve which initially curves
upwards, reaches its maximum, then starts declining.
Marginal Revenue
Marginal revenue is defined as the change in total revenue resulting from selling
additional unit of the commodity. It is also the slope of the total revenue curve at
any level of output.
MR = d(TR)/dQ = d(PQ)/dQ
Or
MR = P + Q(dP/dQ)
Q = b0 – b1P
P = a0 - a1Q
Where: a0 = b0/b1
a1 = 1/b1
TR = P*Q = Q ( a0 – a1 Q) = a0 Q – a1Q2
This proves that the MR curve starts from the same point (a 0) of the demand
curve, and that the MR is a straight line with a negative slope twice as steep as
the slope of the demand curve.
The marginal revenue is related to the price elasticity of demand with the formula
MR = P{ 1 – 1/e}
P = f(Q)
TR = PQ = Q[f(Q)]
The MR is
= P + Q(dP/dQ)
e = - (dQ/dP)(P/Q)
e (Q/P) = dQ/dP
(P/eQ) = dP/dQ
Or
MR = P ( 1 – 1/e )
Total Revenue, Marginal Revenue and Price Elasticity
The following conclusions may be advanced on the shape of total revenue curve
and MR, P and e.
The total revenue curve reaches its maximum when e = 1, since MR = 0 when e
= 1.
If e > 1 the total revenue curve has a positive slope, i.e, it is still increasing hence
has not reached its maximum point.
If e < 1 the total revenue curve has a negative slope, i.e. it is falling
In summary: